March Results 2014

March 29th

Meydan Results

As one season started with Doncaster and Kempton, World Cup night signified the end of another in Dubai.

Variety Club made up for his blip last time, returning to winning ways in the Godolphin Mile. Able to get across from an outside draw, he made all. He and runner-up, last year’s winner Soft Falling Rain, were the first two throughout. We know a bit about Soft Falling Rain; Variety Club is out of a similar mould.

Flotilla flew late to grab third, just ahead of Gold City and the useful Japanese horse Brightline, who, posted wide, was prominent throughout only to tire in the last furlong. Shuruq was muscled out of contention from her double-figure draw. All her best form is on an artificial surface.

Cavalryman looked unlucky in the Dubai Gold Cup but to an extent he was the architect of his own downfall.

Once they quickened with five to race he was off the bridle and outpaced; only finding his stride down the straight when it was too late. This is not the first time he has failed to deliver.

Certerach was the beneficiary, getting first run and holding on. Star Empire was a decent third; earlier form with the winner suggesting they have run as they should.

Ernest Hemingway can be marked up after getting chopped for room but still moving forward when most were on the retreat. Something awaits him in the near future. Dabadiyan finished reasonably well whilst Songcraft looked a non-stayer. Simenon (not suited by the way the race was run but even so dropped out very quickly) and Saddler’s Rock both underperformed. The years may have caught up with them both.

Toast Of New York – winner of two events at Wolverhampton going into this – sprung something of a surprise in a cut-and-thrust UAE Derby. He did get the run of things whereas several rivals were toiling after a gruelling set of fractions.

Asmar was slow to stride and posted wide for most of the trip. Under the circumstances he has run well to finish second. He has improved with every run this season.

Emirates Flyer was another to shrug off a rough passage in third. Giovanni Boldini, unluckily touched off by Outstrip in the Breeders’ Cup, never really found his stride but did finish down the straight to force a photo for third. Long John could never get involved.

The bullet that is Amber Sky blazed from the start of the Al Quoz, shooting away and maintaining a searching pace throughout. He had looked very quick in Hong Kong and again here. Over the minimum and on a fast surface, he is very hard to peg back. That should be borne in mind if he turns up at Royal Ascot.

Ahtoug, who has held his form throughout the Carnival, just outpointed Shea Shea in second. Shea Shea is not making things easy for either himself or his jockey these days. Plum last after a casual break, he did claw back ground but to get up he needed Amber Sky to stop.

After victory in the Al Quoz, Hong Kong doubled up in the Golden Shaheen when Sterling City was stroked home by the excellent Jose Moreira, picking up his fellow-countryman, Rich Tapestry. On fresh air in the last hundred yards, Rich Tapestry is better over five.

Japan has another serious international contender in Just A Way judging by his demolition job of a top class field in the Duty Free.

Not ideally placed turning for home but possibly helped by the leaders folding off a strong pace, he sauntered to the lead down the straight and was soon clear. The time was fiercely fast. On this evidence, this son of Heart’s Cry is capable of mixing it with the best Europe can throw his way. Given their commitment Japan deserves a star and in Just A Way they have one.

Hitherto unbeaten Vercingetorix loomed at the turn but had no answer to the winner. Even so he was an honourable second and was carried out on his sword.

Dank ran on through a tired field to take third. According to her trainer she will improve for this run, making her a force to be reckoned with in events confined to her sex.

The Sheema Classic was a rough affair – made all the more so by a fatal injury suffered in running by Mars. The ascendency of the East continued when Japan Cup winner Gentildonna beat a strong field.

Cirrus Des Aigles was a brave second, but it still looks as if ten furlongs is his preferred trip. Ambivalent was a surprising third, ahead of the moody starter that is Empoli. Magician got no run but was closing at the finish.

After a dismal day, Godolphin claimed the big prize with African Story. He has had a chequered run into this (reportedly lame last time) and was not an obvious winner beforehand.

However, in a race where no quarter was given, courtesy of a blistering pace set by Mukhadram, not many got a look in. Mukhadram sustained his gallop to the end finishing clear in second.

Once again, Cat O’Mountain left the impression he would have gone close with a decent draw. He finished strongly in third and has now consolidated the opinion that, on synthetics at least, he is a top class contender.

The Hong Kong duo did not act on the track. Akeed Mofeed ran in snatches but kept on at the end. Military Attack was further back. Ruler Of The World ended a wretched day for the boys from Ballydoyle – finishing next to last.

Doncaster Results

When we last saw him Graphic was a much improved performer – winning four on the bounce. His win in the Listed event was the highlight of his progression as he withheld Fencing (entitled to improve for his first run since last summer) and Custom Cut. The winner may step up in trip to a mile and quarter next for the Earl of Sefton at Newmarket.

Oisin Murphy got it right in the listed Cammidge Trophy. On tacky ground he was always up with the pace before driving his mount forward in the last furlong to get the better of a tussle with Captain Ramius. Jack Dexter had his chance and has run well enough in third, ahead of veteran Jimmy Styles. Missing a beat at the stalls and never close enough to land a blow, Maureen deserves another chance.

Once again it seemed as if those close to the pace were favoured in the Spring Mile. Past Lincoln winner, Brae Hill, pulled out plenty to hold Stand My Ground and Yourartisonfire. Richard Fahey, who trained the winner, was also responsible for Farlow who did pick up some ground in fourth, ahead of Showboating, but they finished strung out after these.

Not much can be drawn from the win of Ocean Tempest in the Lincoln. Having made no show in Meydan, he was at home on this ground. Tullius was an honourable second from top weight.

Kempton Results

Tiggy Wiggy had the juvenile race won after a hundred yards. A fast start ensured she got the rail and, cornering well, she quickened off the bend to draw clear. They may not have been a great lot in behind but by all accounts this victory was expected and achieved in a fair time – particularly considering she never saw another rival. It seems reasonable to expect her to win again.

Beaten four lengths by Magician at Chester but not seen since last year’s Royal Ascot meeting, Contributer made light work of the Listed Magnolia Stakes despite looking burly. This win augers well for his upcoming season.

Modernstone rallied to snatch second from Squire Osbaldeston who tired late on. Trumpet Major failed to fire. The trip cannot be cited.

Salutation made all and quickened away from the chasing pack in the Class 2 Roseberry Handicap. Having appeared to have lost his way last season, he had slipped to a reasonable mark – one that will be re-adjusted after this. Grendisar continues to run well and finished second ahead of Rebellious Guest who was given every chance but was beaten by the weight.

Two track records went here, attributable to a strong tailwind according to those at the track.

Trinityelitedotcom was responsible for the second record in the Class 2 sprint handicap. On a day when races were won from the front, he held on from Absolutely So, who possibly got going too late but finished strongly. Hoof It was third in a race where the principals made it all go pretty much according to plan.

Hasopop does not look the easiest of characters to deal with, but in finishing second in the conditions stakes, he still gives the impression a mile will suit him better.

March 22nd:

Lingfield Racing

With the run of the race, penalised Stepper Point lasted home in the listed handicap sprint over the minimum from Iftisam (staying on and will be better suited by a return to six) and Even Stevens.

One false step here can mean the end of any chance and well-drawn Ladies Forever (also penalised in that she did not receive her fillies’ allowance) was soon in trouble as she sacrificed her position at the bend, being thrown wide after receiving a bump. She finished strongly but the damage was done. Unlucky today, with the onset of the Flat, there will not be too many opportunities for her at this sort of level in the future.

Considered a possible Guineas outsider, despite the widest draw of all in thirteen, Ertijaal was a short price for the listed over seven furlongs.

Second to Toormore on debut at Leicester and then a six length winner at Yarmouth, Ertijaal – a good-looking son of Oasis Dream that did not look fully wound up – soon negated his draw with an early burst of speed that took him across the field.

Sent on at the turn he failed to stretch away in the threatened manner but did enough to win. Admittedly green and all at sea on this sharp track, he looks more of a sprinter than a Guineas candidate. He could be a decent six furlong horse.

Dundalk maiden winner American Hope was closing fast at the line and could be of interest next time. He should have no problem coping with an extra furlong. The form is anchored to a degree by the third and fourth – Major Crispies and Sir Robert Cheval, although there are races to be won with the latter. A staying-on Expert looks ready for a step up in trip, whilst Brazos was a disappointment. As it stands this is listed form at best.

Robin Hoods Bay created a turn up in the Winter Derby, beating a strong field with a last furlong charge.

Windhoek was unlucky in second. Given a hefty bump at the start that shuffled him to the back, he travelled into the race in very strong style at the turn but had used up too much gas to hold on.

After a rough passage in Dubai last time, he deserves a change of fortune. Fragile to a degree, he is particularly effective on an artificial surface.

Fifth to Shanshaawes at Meydan earlier in the month, Aussie Rules was third ahead of Dick Doughtywylie – who runs well at this track. Last year’s winner Farraaj and Circumvent were next to finish.

Not for the first time, Grandeur, who it seems is best fresh and in top company playing for places, seemed to find this too much like working for a living. Despite his overall record, he is not one to place any great faith in.

Shafrah was too good for his rivals in what looked an ordinary maiden over a mile. With form in the book, this success did not come out of turn. L’Importante, Sea Here and Court Room scrapped it out for places.

Now seven, George Guru will never reach the heights once envisaged but took another step in the right direction for his new yard when holding on in Class 2 handicap from a fast-closing Brocklebank, who probably got going a stride too late. With Spiritual Star and Atlantic Crossing next to finish this was not a bad affair. After a couple of promising efforts of late, Stasio was a tame fifth.

Van Percy started his season in the best possible manner with a win in the Class 3 handicap from a mark of 87. In prevailing in a tight finish over Scottish Star and Swing Alone, he was greatly aided by the valuable 3lbs claim of his able rider.

14th March:

Cheltenham:

JCB Triumph Hurdle:

You need to travel to win a Triumph and on only his third outing over timber Tiger Roll did that throughout, striking the front at the last and forging clear. By Authorized and unraced on the Flat, this inexperienced gelding readily reversed places with Leopardstown winner Guitar Pete. It seems reasonable to expect him to improve again.

Kentucky Hyden (probably better with more ease in the ground) was second ahead of consistent Guitar Pete. Daryl Jacob lost an iron as a result of a snapped leather on Calipto (travelling as well as the winner at the top of the hill) making the partnership unfortunate to a degree.

Calipto deserves another chance at Aintree, particularly if Tiger Roll fails to turn up. Royal Irish Hussar has yet to recover his early season form, although, in finishing sixth, the signs are he may be on the way back.

County Hurdle:

In a fiercely run event, dual Cheltenham winner Lac Fontana swooped late to supply Paul Nicholls and, perhaps more importantly, Daryl Jacob with their first winner at the meeting. Lac Fontana (eighth in last year’s Triumph Hurdle) clearly likes this track.

Lightly raced Arctic Fire continues to improve and arrived at the last to throw down a major challenge that was only just foiled.

Montbazon came back to his best with a massive run in third. Fourth in the 2012 Supreme Novices’ and stuck in the mud at Newbury when needed it on his belated return in the Betfair, this was a step in the right direction.

Diakali (third behind Jezski in a Grade 1 on his latest outing) was an honourable fourth from top weight and a mark of 154. In fifth, Flaxen Flare was another to lend added credence to a strong event. An always prominent Cheltenian weakened rapidly approaching the last and was pulled up but apparently returned sound.

Albert Barlett Novices’ Hurdle:

Heralded as the novice banker from the stable that had already gobbled up the Supreme and the Neptune, unbeaten Briar Hill wins no prizes in the parade ring. An old-fashioned jumper to look at, he fell five out: sufficiently far out to prevent any conclusion.

In a race that was run at a fast pace and turned into last man standing, Very Wood, beaten three lengths by Briar Hill last time when in receipt of 7lbs, outstayed his rivals up the hill. Deputy Dan looked all set for victory when kicked on at the turn, but he jumped the last in the manner of a tired horse, struggling on for second.

Apache Wood, who was second to Briar Hill in the race mentioned, should have confirmed places with Very Wood on 3lbs better terms. He ran on for third, emphasising the worth of the Punchestown event Briar Hill won.

Looks aren’t everything and it would be premature to decry Briar Hill. His jumping had looked suspect to some in Ireland and perhaps that is the chink in his armour. Champagne West was fourth ahead of Masters Hill. Kings Palace tried to win the race the hard way by making the running. This is his style of racing but he flattened very quickly at the turn, eventually suffering an exhausted fall at the last. Were it not for the fact he has won over this trip, you could be forgiven for assuming failed to stay. Only eight out of eighteen finished.

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup:

There have been some who-would-have-thought-it results to this race in its history – we had another here. Fast ground took its toll on the day. Essentially they were going off too quickly and front-runners were not getting home.

Once again they went off like hot butter slipping from a knife. Having hacked round comfortably for a circuit, Last Instalment (a soft ground horse) was already beginning to crack when unseating approaching the top of the hill. The incident probably did him a favour as it later emerged he had broken down. Gradually the complexion of the race changed.

Six broke clear on the approach to the last, where it seemed as if Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth were about to fight it out; in the event both were unplaced. On the clamber to the line, Lord Windermere – last for most of the way but out of the scrum up front – began to close.

Under a hard drive he short-headed On His Own with The Giant Bolster a close third. Next came Silviniaco Conti and a veering Bobs Worth – who probably felt the ground. Lyreen Legend made up the sextet.

Lord Windermere won last year’s RSA from Lyreen Legend, form that hardly entitled him to win a Gold Cup – but that is often the nature of this event. It was a messy finish that prompted a stewards’ inquiry. Without being rude, from a form perspective, the final ruling makes no difference.

As Gold Cups go, this ranks as one of the worst we have seen; therefore the door is open for a new order to break through the ranks next year.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle:

Late-developer Full Shift, raised 11lbs for easily snapping up a so-so handicap at Kempton last month, was the market order. He was always struggling against much stiffer opposition and having dropped away three out, did run on again through some very ragged opposition. Presented with something of a baptism of fire, he should not be judged too harshly.

Don Poli provided another Irish winner, staying on too strongly for Thomas Crapper.

Having given the field a fifteen length start, Urbain de Sivola got into contention at the top of the hill and eventually finished fourth. It was a long way back to the fifth horse, One Lucky Lady. Full Shift was not the only disappointment. The Skyfarmer and Vieux Lion Rouge also found this too hot for their liking.

Grand Annual Chase:

The final drama of the meeting belonged, as it started, to Davy Russell. Savello provided his third winner on a day he and connections will not forget. Carnage ensued in behind in an X-rated contest. Next Sensation was mowed down after cutting out so much of the running, eventually finishing fourth. There is nothing to take from this, except to state how easy this game appears when you are winning and how difficult when you are not.

13th March:

Cheltenham:

JLT Novices’ Chase:

Approaching the last there was inevitability about victory for Taquin Du Seuil who, needing all McCoy’s strength on the run-in, gradually overhauled his rivals.

A big lump of a horse and once considered as an Arkle candidate (for which he was joint favourite at the start of the season), he was beautifully handled and balanced despite looking awkward at times. This trip of 2m 4f is ideal at present.

Despite a shaky round of fencing last time at Warwick Uxizandre jumped boldly and well in the lead, only surrendering the advantage close home.

Double Ross was a gallant third. He is holding his form well throughout the year and handles this track. Wonderful Charm appeared to underperform but did plug on to finish upsides Felix Yonger. Oscar Whisky was an early casualty and Djakadam, although not a natural round here, was still in contention when getting caught out by the fence at the top of the hill.

Pertemps Final:

The two top weights fought out a desperate finish, Richard Johnson excelling on Fingal Bay in the closing stages to lift his tired mount to the line after fluffing the last and being headed.

Winning this from a mark of 148, handicaps are probably off the agenda from now on. Narrowly touched off in second, Southfield Theatre was caught on the line. Eleven-year-old Pineau De Re was third. Although out of the money, Broadway Buffalo was a lot closer to Fingal Bay this time, presumably more at home on this sounder surface. On similar ground, it is possible he may go well at Aintree.

Ryanair Chase:

Back to his best, Dynaste gained revenge for defeat in this last year with a massive victory and making that abysmal Boxing Day run history.

As a horse that stays three miles, they went plenty quick enough for him but his jumping stood up and as stamina came in to play he got ever closer, winging the last and, perfectly delivered by Tom Scudamore, taking it up halfway up the run-in.

Hidden Cyclone was a decent second ahead of Rajdhani Express. Hunt Ball ran above himself in fourth and there might be a payday in him before the close of the season.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle:

One of the races of the meeting was dominated by the two six-year-olds in the field. In a strong renewal of the event, More Of That spearheaded the new order.

Unbeaten, he started the year with success in a handicap at Wetherby from a mark of 130 and ran to something like 165 here. The sky would appear to be the limit.

Annie Power travelled strongly if a little too keenly early and delivered her challenge at the last, only to be beaten by a stronger individual. She has done nothing wrong and further options are open. She has stayed but at this level it may pay to revert to shorter. She will need time to recover from this.

Putting some indifferent runs behind him, At Fishers Cross was third. Zarkandar picked up the pieces in fourth, ahead of Big Buck’s, who ends his career with an honourable effort. Last year’s Neptune runner-up, Rule The World was only just behind him in sixth.

Byrne Group Plate:

A strong-travelling Ballynagour struck late to deprive Colour Squadron at the last. Not always the most consistent of characters (apparently he had been known to bleed), the winner dotted up on this occasion.

Colour Squadron looked the winner for a long way; once again he was a bridesmaid. He had no answer to the winner’s sweep up the hill but is his own worst enemy. Tatenen and Johns Spirit were next to finish at one of the lesser events at the meeting; although Third Intention is worthy of a mention in his first handicap as he ran well enough from a mark of 143.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Cup:

Spring Heeled was a somewhat fortunate winner of this.

Cause Of Causes travelled sweetly throughout despite having to check on more than one occasion. Coming to win at the last, he ploughed through it. Gathered together by Nina Carberry, he closed the winner down but the damage was done. In a race strewn with error, Indian Castle’s mistake at the last – when already beaten – prevented him from obtaining a possible place.

March 12th:

Cheltenham:

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle:

The same firm – that of Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh – responsible for Vautour in the opener yesterday, repeated the dose with Faugheen.

Always handy, despite indifferent hurdling at the third and second-last, he was sent on at the turn, soon had his rivals in trouble and flew the last.

Apparently Faugheen is not the easiest horse to train, but he maintained his unbeaten record without too much trouble here, landing some sizeable bets in the process.

Ballyalton was second and Rathvinden third. Red Sherlock was a disappointment. Based on their running at Cheltenham in January he should have been much closer to Rathvinden than the fading dot in the distance he became.

Killala Quay and Twelve Roses came next ahead of Lieutenant Colonel, who looks more of a chaser. Well-touted Cup Final was a big disappointment. Although it was asking a lot for him to win, he could never go the pace and his hurdling was sketchy. Better was expected and will surely be forthcoming in time.

RSA Chase:

In a race run at a breakneck pace, on only his fourth attempt, O’Faolains Boy came out the best of a depleted field. According to Barry Geraghty, he was on and off the bridle throughout but he knuckled down in a war of attrition on the run-in.

Smad Place was runner-up ahead of Morning Assembly. Ballycasey was an always prominent fourth. He weakened quickly in the manner of a non-stayer.

McCoy worked wonders to get Carlingford Lough into contention. The horse did not take to the track and looked ill-at-ease on the ground. He made a succession of mistakes yet McCoy crept into contention running down the hill. Unsurprisingly, Carlingford Lough ran out of gas over the last two. There was carnage in behind. Corrin Wood went off too fast for his and everyone else’s good. Black Thunder brought down Many Clouds (was not going that well at the time); Don Cossack and Le Bec were next to go.

Coral Cup:

After a narrow defeat by Saphir Du Rheu in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, with a 5lbs claim all but negating a 6lbs rise, Whisper continued an upward curve with victory off 153.

Always travelling strongly, Whisper – a model of consistency this season – rose to the occasion when hitting the front approaching the last and regaining the lead close home when headed by Get Me Out Of Here. The Henderson stable has gone close on a couple of occasions already this week; this result turned the tide. Connections are already excited about the winner’s prospects over fences next season. Bayan and Smashing came next ahead of Dell’ Arca.

Queen Mother Champion Chase:

Two words sum this up: Well Done! Well done to Sire De Grugy and all those associated with him.

Well done to Gary Moore for deflecting the slings and arrows from those that decried his horse’s chance over this track and for preparing him to beat his left-handed hoodoo.

Well done to Jamie Moore for keeping a cool head and giving the horse a championship ride.

Well done of course to the horse for coping in the heat of battle.

Somersby and Module (much improved this season) were next to finish. Captain Conan was beaten after two fences and pulled up pretty soon after. He was found to be lame behind.

Hinterland was brought down by Bally Green. But this was all about Sire De Grugy who has won the last seven out of his eight races and can be rightfully referred to as the two-mile champion.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap:

The dual purpose High Chaparral gelding, Hawk High sprung something of a surprise in a race where having a bet was asking for trouble. Not an obvious winner, he was probably suited by the faster surface.

On his English debut, Katgary jumped and travelled well and was slightly hampered at the second last and then stuttered into the final flight. On this evidence he looks useful (apparently had tanked at home) and should be winning very shortly. To send Dawalan off at 7/2 in a race such as this was plain crazy!

Champion Bumper:

Unsurprisingly this was a good looking field and one that will probably throw up plenty of winners.

Dermot Weld supplied the winner, though not perhaps with the expected one. By Dansili, Silver Concorde, who likes firm ground, stayed on strongly once he hit the front to defy Shaneshill. Apparently the winner might try his luck at Royal Ascot.

Irish horses dominated here; they supplied the first six home. Black Hercules, who cut out a lot of the running and stayed on resolutely, was an eye-catching fourth. His immediate future is over hurdles.

Of the rest, Vigil, stable mate of the winner but more suited to ease in the ground, was far from disgraced in fifth whilst the four-year-old Modus, who was one of the paddock picks, raced wide for most of the way but still appeared apparently full of running at the top of the hill. He only lost his pitch in the straight but still stayed on under considerate handling. He oozes class and has a future

11th March:

Cheltenham: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle:

Last year it was Champagne Fever for Willie Mullins and the Irish, this year it was Vautour. A touch keen from the start, Ruby Walsh had him perfectly settled and the horse jumped like an old hand – that is with the exception of a minor error at the third last.

All class, he had his field ragged at the turn and a spectacular leap at the last sealed it. The chasing pack was headed by Josses Hill (lost a shoe), with the well-regarded Vaniteux – who is only now coming to himself – in third. Sgt Reckless made up acres of ground to scythe through the field from stone last at one stage to grab fourth.

Luckless Wilde Blue Yonder was fifth with the winner’s stable mate Wicklow Brave sixth. Irving was never sighted with a realistic chance and presumably some explanation will be forthcoming. In truth this was all about the winner who recorded a fast time and looks destined for even higher honour.

Arkle Trophy:

On only his second run over fences, Western Warhorse created a major upset here to grab a last gasp success from the bold frontrunner Champagne Fever.

A fizzy sort over hurdles that has often done too much too soon, he was settled much better by the application of a hood, running down his main rival in the shadow of the post. Talent has never been a problem for Western Warhorse; temperament is the potential barrier and there is no guarantee he will replicate this form.

Champagne Fever had the race won everywhere but at the line. A big chaser that will surely gain compensation for this narrow defeat, he fought off rival after rival with his determined style of running and accomplished jumping.

The much smaller Trifolium did not jump as well as he can but was always shadowing Champagne Fever, laying down his challenge from the turn but lacking the strength to get by. He kept on in honest style to finish third ahead of Dodging Bullets.

Rock On Ruby made a howler of a mistake at the third and was always struggling thereafter. He is not a natural chaser.

Baylis & Harding Handicap Chase:

In a race run at a lightening pace and catalogued with sketchy jumping throughout, Hollywell, last year’s Pertempts Final winner over hurdles, rattled off a three-timer over fences after success this season at Catterick and Doncaster.

Arguably a strong travelling Ma Filleule was a tad unlucky when clouting the third last, which caused his rider to lose his irons. Even so she crossed the last in front only to be deprived in the last hundred yards.

Only an optimist would try to pinpoint future winners from this. The Package did well enough after nearly a year off in third with Green Flag staying on stoutly enough in fourth.

Stan James Champion Hurdle:

This was the day when Jezki finally lived up to the hype.

Having been close to the top guns on many an occasion, this time the cards fell in his favour. Wearing a first time hood, crucially, he poached a lead approaching the turn and stuck on strongly.

Many will feel My Tent Or Yours may have been unlucky. Travelling supremely well throughout, he was not sufficiently slick at the top of the hill or at the second last to close the winner down when needed.

He tried valiantly from the last but Jezski had the race won by then and held on by a diminishing margin.

A horrible fall suffered by Our Conor on the far side knocked The New One back and he did well to claw back much of the lost ground. Again his supporters will cry foul. He was a fast finishing third, so the stage is set with everything to play for should there be a renewal between the first three.

Hurricane Fly travelled strongly but at the age of ten some of the gloss is missing these days and well though he has performed, paydays like this are probably a thing of the past.

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle:

progressive and tough mare Glens Melody – a dual Warwick winner this season – almost foiled stable mate Quevega in her bid for an unprecedented six-timer.

As in last year’s race, Quevega was not travelling from the top of the hill but Walsh gradually nursed her into contention and then, in an emotional finish, ran down Glens Melody from the last. Quevega was returning after her Punchestown win last April. Now aged ten, it could be this is her swansong at the Festival.

Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase:

Three stood out beforehand: Foxrock (best form but unproven over four miles); Shutthefrontdoor (every indication he would stay) and the most likely to handle this extreme trip Shotgun Paddy.

This was reflected in the market. On a faster surface than they were accustomed to, a series of mistakes put paid to their respective chances. In addition Foxrock looked as if he failed to stay this trip of four miles. Shutthefrontdoor was never on an even keel.

Shotgun Paddy did the best of the trio and possibly would have pulled it off but for a final mistake two out. He recovered and was able to launch a final narrowly thwarted challenge.

As it was Midnight Prayer lasted with lightly-raced Suntiep – another to blunder his way round – finishing from out of the clouds to take third. On an easier surface, with youth on his side, he could be the one to take from this.

Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase:

A chapter of incidents dominated. Consistent Present View (won two and placed in other three this season) got the breaks and made them count.

Attaglance was unwisely switched by his jockey on the run-in, which cost him the race. Re-aligned, he was closing fast when it was all over.

A mistake at the last prevented Pendra from mounting a final effort in third and Ahyaknowyerself took fourth. A jolting early mistake prevented Ohio Gold from playing any further part. Art Of Logistics made a shuddering error late on. In short this ground found out these novices, many of whom were travelling a stride too quickly for comfort.

8th March:

Sandown Results

It’s difficult to know how good the small field was for the juvenile handicap; all we can say is the winner, Dormello Mo is a lot better.

An expensive purchase from France where he won a small race over hurdles, he left a moderate fourth at Exeter behind him in this. Always travelling, he jumps well and it was plain for all to see he was cantering over his rivals in the straight. A big leap at the last sealed success.

The Imperial Cup was perhaps not as competitive a renewal as some, although the improving Baltimore Rock looked progressive in getting the better of Gassin Golf, who remains a maiden over timber but is doing nothing wrong.

Vibrato Valtat clung on for third ahead of Regal Encore who cruised for much of the way but in this, his first venture in a handicap, failed to find what was expected off the bridle. To be fair he kept on. With his stable not in the best of form, it is reasonable to expect there will be another day.

Wolverhampton Results

Hasopop can be forgiven defeat in the opening event where a wide draw made things difficult. He was doing plenty of good work in the closing stages and a return to a mile will suit. Over a trip that is ideal, Chookie Royale quickened clear on the turn.

Meydan Results

On a star-studded programme, Super Saturday did not disappoint. The opening event went to maiden Asmar who had posted promise on each of his three runs to date.

As suspected he thrived for this step up to a mile and a quarter. Enterprisingly sent on at halfway by Richard Hughes, who was unhappy with the slow early gallop, Asmar soon had his rivals toiling and drew clear in the straight.

Emirates Flyer, who had beaten the winner over a mile last time, was shoved along down the far side. In typical Barzalona style he was asked to swing wide in the straight. Even so he was beaten on merit. A strict line through the runner-up suggests the improving Asmar is not far behind Long John over this trip, so he might give him a run for his money in the UAE Derby on World Cup night.

The importance of jockeyship here cannot be overstated. Once again, a piece of brilliance sealed success in the Group 3 sprint. Winner of this last year and now seven; over the minimum, on a flat track and on fast ground, Shea Shea is a monster.

Prepared to forfeit ground in order to secure the near rail, Soumillon dropped in and then produced his mount to win cleverly. Considering this was his first race of the season, this was an encouraging reappearance.

Ahtoug lunged late in second ahead of Dux Scholar and a closing Sole Power, who, although entitled to improve for the run, will struggle to overturn this form with Shea Shea in the Al Quoz.

Rich Tapestry struck a blow for Hong Kong when claiming the Group 3 over six furlongs. It has been a while between drinks for him but he has acquitted himself well in top grades. Winner of this and the Golden Shaheen last year, after an indifferent comeback run, Reynaldothewizard recovered something like his best form in second.

Complicate maintained current improvement with another solid effort in third ahead of Jamesie, another continuing to thrive in the desert. Jersey winner Gale Force Ten showed a glimmer. The decision to drop Soft Falling Rain in trip was perplexing beforehand – even more so afterwards as, predictably, he could never match strides with six furlong specialists. He was not disgraced however, so after this pipe opener a return to seven or a mile and on Tapeta will be to his advantage.

Not many got into the Group 3 over a mile where Shuruq, on whom on this occasion Barzalona seemed to get things right, ran down hot favourite Variety Club.

Shuruq’s best form has been on an artificial surface although nothing so far achieved matches this. Variety Club was in the first two throughout but looked a tired horse when striking the front. He had no answer to the filly’s closing burst. Capital Attraction and Forjatt (third to Vercingetorix three weeks ago) were third and fourth in a strongly run event.

Not for the first time, Empoli declined to take up his invitation to race, on this occasion in The Group 2 City Of Gold on turf. After a cracking effort behind Tasaday last time his non-participation was a disappointment.

In a typical last furlong dash, Excellent Result squeezed through to grab the spoils from Songcraft (who on level terms with many of these should have been weighted out of this) and a closing Mount Athos.

From his wide draw, Meandre was a gallant fourth with Dabadiyan and Sheikhzayedroad on the heels of the principals. Arc fifth – the bull that is Penglai Pavilion – was turned out looking as if he has done particularly well since last year. He was not disgraced and should improve for this outing.

Considered by many to be a fortunate winner last time, Prince Bishop repeated the dose in the Group 1. In the process he confirmed form with African Story who many considered unlucky last time.

Once again Prince Bishop rewarded Fallon’s bravery as the jockey chartered a bold run up the inner, much as he had done on Excellent Result earlier. Sanshaawes and Surfer were next to finish ahead of Cat O’Mountain who was again asked to achieve the impossible. Behind for much of the journey, he turned for home in an impossible position but grabbed ground on the run to the line. It seems on an artificial surface he is not far behind the best on show. Granted a decent run, he would have gone very close here. This is the second time he has taken part in a horror show for his followers.

Unbeaten Vercingetorix was always in the right place in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta, once again pouncing at will under a shrewd ride from Soumillon. There were a couple of hard luck stories in behind but the common denominator with Vercingetorix is that he keeps winning. He will now head to World Cup night with excellent claims. Vancouverite kept on gamely, depriving Anaerobio of second.

Spencer on Trade Storm once again allowed his rivals too much rope. Mars finished strongly but he is a dodgy character that cannot be relied upon.

March 2014

GRAND NATIONAL DAY

SATURDAY APRIL 5th

It might be the Grand National but to the professional gambler it is just another horserace. As such it is treated accordingly.

Professionals dissect races they are interested in, reducing the field to those that in their opinions can win and eliminating those that can’t. Once they have stripped the field bare, they take a look to see if they can narrow it down further until they might be left with a handful of serious runners and hopefully the winner.

To do this the professional assessor has to take an opinion and not to be frightened to be wrong. Remember, the man who is worried about being wrong is very often never right. Fence-sitting is for politicians and civil servants.

So herewith my own version of Saturday’s big race: The Crabbie’s Grand National.

Forty are scheduled to line-up, which may include one or more of the four reserves. With the chances of many of the runners looking remote at best, let’s see if we can turn forty into ten. To do this we have to adopt a ruthless approach, but it can be done and result in a pot of gold. After all, a ten-runner horse race where bookmakers are offering 8/1 the field drastically shifts the odds in favour of the punter.

These are the runners from my viewpoint, and you may be surprised by some of the exclusions.

TIDAL BAY:

Has to buck age and weight trends to win. Carrying top weight of 11st 10lbs and at the age of thirteen, he faces a Herculean task – but since joining the excellent Paul Nicholls he has seemed better than ever.

Gone are the moods, the tantrums and the quirky traits that for so long made him a dubious betting proposition. A colossal effort under top weight in the Welsh Grand National in December was followed up by an honourable second in Ireland in a Grade 1 early in February. Rested since, he cannot be disregarded. The most likely scenario is that he will finish in the first six but that his weight will anchor him. Even so, he will expose weaknesses in many of his rivals.

LONG RUN:

Is the one horse in the line-up that will have us muttering in our beards – and beers – how obvious it was when he wins.

As a dual King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner that is only nine and runs from a lower mark than when he rattled up the first of those Kempton wins in 2011, the handicapper has opened the door for him now.

Representing the all-powerful Nicky Henderson stable, he can be relied upon to have been well prepared for this task. Although his jumping is not always bombproof, he will have been schooled over replica Aintree fences at home and is the sort to rise to the occasion.

His excellent rider emphasised his worth over these fences when winning the Fox Hunter Chase on Thursday and, granted a smidgen of luck and on this drying ground, he could be too classy despite his burden.

ROCKY CREEK:

Completes the trio of classy horses not normally associated with this event. Second in the Hennessy at Newbury in November on only the first of two runs this season, he should line up as a fresh contender that has been prepared with this in mind.

The ground will be ideal and, having never fallen in twelve chases, his jumping has already withstood the test of time. He may have a few pounds too many in the handicap but his class is undeniable and if he is one of three or four at the last, he is the one lesser rivals will have to pass.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE:

Holds more of a technical chance than a realistic one. But efforts here (in the Betfred Bowl and when winning as a novice) and in Ireland in top company suggest at his best he could go well. This is his time of year.

DOUBLE SEVEN:

Something of a dark horse that has progressed through the ranks in Ireland and is catapulted into the big time now. On what he has achieved his mark seems fair and he could easily surpass it. Two doubts remain. He has yet to prove he stays this far – a remark that applies to many – and his jumping can still be a little dicey at times. However, don’t let that put you off too much. This course has a habit of focusing the sloppy but talented horse and as the choice of Tony McCoy he could not be in better hands. Even so he is a bit of a guess.

BURTON PORT:

And talking of guesses, enter this one-time RSA second and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up, whose last win was in the Mildmay Chase here in 2010 when rated 152. Having slipped to a mark of 145, clearly a return to anything approaching that form would make him a blot at the weights.

The problem is, since then he has suffered a leg injury and, at the age of ten, he gives the impression the best is behind him. However a reasonable effort in a veterans’ event last time gives some cause for optimism for his supporters although he will need to find more now. Given his connections that is not impossible and success is not a total pipe dream.

PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE:

Another with a chance on his best form but that seems to be over the horizon and far away these days. However, he does have a dash of class if he can recover it (latest run suggests he is no back number) and would be dangerous if crossing the last alongside a bunch of camels.

LION NA BEARNAI:

Is another that will need to wind the clock back to win. However this former Irish Grand National has already shown he can grind it out when others are crying enough. Weighted to the hilt but ridden by a jockey at the top of his form, if it turns into an old-fashioned National going to the last man standing, one of the more likely ones.

THE PACKAGE:

Creeps in to this with an attractive weight and is another that could test his rivals if it turned into a slog from the last. Fell at the nineteenth here on his previous visit in 2010 and has a patchy record since. Lines up on the back of a decent comeback run at Cheltenham last month. Possibly a place is the best he could obtain, but on his best form does have a chance.

ROSE OF THE MOON:

Risky but credible outsider that could outrun his odds. He completed the course when running in the Becher Chase in December so may be capable of making some sort of impact at these weights.

That is my shortlist, which excludes several currently fancied runners. Why?

Let’s take Teaforthree. He was third off a 3lbs higher mark last year, but has not won in his three runs since – admittedly including a run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when out of his league. However, this year’s race is potentially a much better renewal than last year so he is unlikely to better his position now and could easily struggle to even maintain it.

Monbeg Dude is an old-fashioned staying chaser that peaked in December at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 handicap from an 8lbs lower mark. Life is tougher now and he has plenty to do with Teaforthree on old form. Balthazar King would be a popular winner for Richard Johnson but on his last visit here he burned himself out by tearing off too quickly. Again, his qualities seem confined to staying or cross-country events where the vast majority of his opponents are geriatric or slow.

I have attempted to include outsiders, but essentially I see the race concerning the class acts, who may dominate. Not all will cross the last in a line, but one of them at least is likely to slip the tangled net of misfortune and drama that could foil their bids.

Assuming I have highlighted the right ten runners, this is how bookmakers might price up the race should the other thirty not be taking part:

3/1 LONG RUN
4/1 TIDAL BAY
9/2 ROCKY CREEK
7/1 DOUBLE SEVEN
10/1 BURTON PORT
16/1 QUITO DE LA ROQUE
16/1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
16/1 LION NA BEARNAI
20/1 THE PACKAGE
33/1 ROSE OF THE MOON

These odds are based on a 110% book. Okay, allow a few points on the prices for error and add or subtract at your discretion. But the value plainly appears to lie with the three market leaders: Long Run, Tidal Bay and Rocky Creek. Currently available at 14/1 or even a shade bigger for looking, Long Run is the selection.

Tomorrow is not solely about the Grand National, although, of course, for many it is the only race in town.

AINTREE: 1.30:

A cracking Grade 1 novice event kicks off the card. Over this trip of 2m 4f, Volnay De Thaix looks sure to improve. A tenuous form line through Splash Of Ginge suggests he may have something to find with Dell’ Arca; however, he has been brought along steadily for this event whereas it could be argued Dell’ Arca comes here after a busy campaign.

2.05:

Trifolium gets a chance for consolation for what was a big effort in the Arkle. His class shines through here and only an off day would prevent him beating lesser rivals.

2.50:

Racing gets distinctly harder after this, the last of the Grade 1 events at the meeting. Whilst At Fishers Cross lines up with solid credentials after a shaky start to the season, Whisper is the horse improving through the ranks. He has only a little to find on these rivals and can throw his hat into the ring with a massive performance now.

LINGFIELD

Exchequer should open his account in the 1.15. After three promising runs as a juvenile, including when second to Kingston Hill, this should be an ideal stepping stone on the way to better things.

3.40:

Barley Mow should win this but American Hope shaped well two weeks ago when a staying on second to the highly-regarded Ertijaal. This trip will suit and he has an improving profile and the right pedigree to test the favourite, who may be sharper on another occasion.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY TWO (Friday)

(posted Thursday 4.15pm)

2.00: International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices’ Hurdle:

Although never heralded as being at the top of the novice tree within the powerful Nicky Henderson camp, Josses Hill has quickly scaled the heights after his novice win, competing in Grade 1 company on his remaining two runs and finishing runner-up on each occasion. His second to Vautor in the Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham is the best form on offer here and his habit of finding for pressure makes him the one to beat now.

Sergeant Reckless was only one-and-a-half lengths away in fourth at Cheltenham having made up a great deal of ground from an unpromising position. However, his habit of running in snatches may find him out round here. Art Of Payroll and Baltimore Rock are seen as bigger dangers.

2.30: Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices’ Chase:

Despite a small field, all six in the line-up have claims of sorts. RSA winner O’Faolains Boy takes a long time to warm up. As a hard ride that is invariably on and off the bridle, he may find this quick track far from ideal.

The progressive Holywell and Wonderful Charm (who can probably be forgiven an on the face of it below par run last time when hampered at Cheltenham) look less complicated rivals.

Many Clouds was never in a comfortable rhythm last time at Cheltenham in the RSA and that run is best overlooked. On the strength of his effort at Ascot when a two-and-half length runner-up to O’Faolains Boy conceding 4lbs he enters the reckoning once again.
A bold front runner, he will be suited by this track and a big run is expected. Holywell is taken to complete the four-timer. Although not without chances, Don Cossack and Just A Par look less likely winners than the remaining four.

3.05: Betfred Melling Chase:

Module and Rajdhani Express come here on the back of two excellent efforts at Cheltenham and both will have their supporters.

The question those looking to play here will have to ask is which run was the better: Module’s third to Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother Chase over what looked like an inadequate trip, or Rajdhani Express’s third to Dynaste in the Ryanair?

Both will have to operate at maximum strength to win, but taken as an overall package Module has a more tempting profile and is the selection.

Although as a Grade 1 the composition of the field leaves something to be desired, the opposition makes up more than numbers and is not that far adrift from the standard set by the two principals. Once again, this is not a cut-and-dried event to solve.

3.40: Crabbie’s Topham Chase:

As always, run over the Grand National fences, we are presented with a knotty problem here. Currently bookmakers are betting 10/1 the field, which seems an accurate enough assessment.

Ma Filleule recovered with real spirit to come back from an error last time at Cheltenham when only going down narrowly to Holywell. Raised 7lbs since, she may still be able to propel herself into the firing line once more but this race is fiercely competitive.

4.15: Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle:

This trip of three miles will expose any stamina limitations. For that reason, having looked to find 2m 6f too far at Thurles last time, Giantofaman is bypassed. Beat That shapes as if likely to stay, whereas Capote and Seeyouatmidnight – both of whom have been saved for this meeting – have already won over today’s trip. Others enter the reckoning, making this a hard race to call.

The middle day of this three-day festival always threatened to be the hardest to crack and that is how it looks. Josses Hill and Module are nominated as the best chances on the day from this quarter but are not necessarily advanced as bets.

It is tempting to oppose O’Faolains Boy in the Mildmay. Holywell may provide the biggest danger but Many Clouds should not be dismissed lightly. And that is the metre of the day, which is constructed of races that are hard to solve in one hit. After a near miss with Diakali on Thursday, it looks like it is all to play for on Saturday…
Good luck with your selections.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY ONE (Thursday)

Here we go once again for the rollercoaster that is Aintree. With four Grade 1s on the first day card, backed up by two competitive handicaps and the hunter chase that is the Foxhunters, there is something for everyone…

2.00:

Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle: All eyes will be on Calipto here after a catalogue of disasters in the Triumph Hurdle. Beaten eight lengths at Cheltenham, his misfortune started at the second when he was impeded and was then compounded when a stirrup leather snapped at the top of the hill.

After the race most observers claimed he looked unlucky and would have arguably beaten Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete but for the intervention of bad luck.

Such thinking can be dangerous: time and again the form book has the last word; although, there is a suspicion that Calipto may re-write a part of it now. We shall see… Guitar Pete has run to a similar level all season and looks guaranteed to be in the mix once again.

A little over three lengths behind Calipto at Newbury on his hurdling debut, Actival has been saved for this. After his authoritative win in the Adonis at Kempton he is not far short of the best of his age and could be the biggest danger to Calipto. On the face of it the three mentioned appear to be the runners, although the improving Fox Norton could enter calculations. Whilst respecting Calipto, Actival looks the logical each-way alternative.

2.30: Betfred Bowl:

So often this event can throw up a surprise. Such a scenario looks unlikely this year as Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti stand out – the inference being one or the other must come out on top. Narrow preference is for Dynaste.

To a degree Argocat is the dark horse that is open to improvement. Even so he has plenty to find if he is to figure. The remaining three will need to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. Last year’s winner First Lieutenant is the scavenger waiting to steal the scraps. He invariably runs his race but can only be considered if the front two underperform; whereas neither Menorah nor Houblon Des Obeaux have shown form approaching this level.

3.05: Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

After Calipto in the opener, The New One is the second so-called unlucky Cheltenham loser to line up here. With a trip likely to play to his strengths, after the setback on Boxing Day at Kempton and the broadside he received in the Champion Hurdle, this is his chance.

Fearful of an avalanche of bets in his favour, bookmakers have priced him up as if he is a near certainty. As a result they have overlooked the wild card that is Diakali, who is available at a tempting 12/1 with Coral as I write and 9/1 elsewhere.

Surely these odds are out of kilter with the horse’s chance. The Willie Mullins representative ran a massive race at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle under top weight and his two-and-a-quarter length third to Jezki – over this trip – in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse gives him a strict chance with the favourite, who was almost three lengths behind Jezki at Cheltenham after his much publicised troublesome passage. Those making a case for anything else (including Rock On Ruby) are liable to be barking up the wrong tree. In what is seen as a two-horse contest, even allowing for the fact that any attempt to bet each-way is likely to be thwarted (excludes each-way multiple bets though) Diakali has to be the call at the prices.

3.40: Crabbie’s Fox Hunter’s Chase:

No doubt those acquainted with hunter chaser form can nominate each-way alternatives to the favourite here; but, granted a clear round, the decision to re-route Mossey Joe for this instead of targeting the Grand National is likely to pay its own dividend. He is not perceived as a betting prospect for those of us that don’t don red coats and breeches on bank holidays, but looks a solid favourite.

4.15: Silver Cross Red Rum Handicap Chase:

History shows a shock is more than possible in this. Cutting through the opposition, Sound Investment has a progressive profile and could be the one to concentrate on for those bold enough to play. Claret Cloak blundered away his chance in the Grand Annual at the second-last but has been raised 4lbs for the privilege and faces a similarly stiff task today.

4.50: Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

Temperament and a sketchy past record means Arkle winner Western Warhorse will not be short of detractors here. Stepping up in trip to 2m 4f (might be a problem if he decides to take a tug), those intent on backing him will do well to do so at SP – which will surely outstrip current cramped odds. With two serious contenders in the shadows, many will nominate him as the lay of the day.
Uxizandre performed well at the Festival when second to Taquin Du Seuill in the JLT where Oscar Whisky tipped up at the first. Effective in small fields, Oscar Whisky claimed the scalp of Taquin Du Seuill at Cheltenham in January and it is entirely possible he will regain the winning thread here. Along with Uxizandre his presence means there will be no hiding place for the Arkle winner.

5.25: Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

This represents a precarious end to the day as far as punters are concerned. Principal contenders appear to be the Irish duo Jetson and Busty Brown.

Although hard to fancy, now returned to timber from a favourable mark, Riverside Theatre is the sort to represent Nicky Henderson with credit, whilst Doctor Harper is on the upgrade.

A case can be constructed for the appropriately named Spirit Of Shankly. In all, for those anxious to continue playing, the advice would be to lob a few quid on the last-named at a sporting price. The sensible advice from this befuddled corner would be to leave the race alone.

So from a betting perspective, although ideas may transmogrify once racing gets underway, at this stage I am nominating two value bets in Actival and Diakal.

Take it easy on what might be a trickier day than it looks…

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING 2014

(posted Monday evening 7pm)

This historic meeting kicks off on Thursday – and it is straight into top quality action with the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at 2.00. With Zarkandar, Walkon, Binocular, Katchit and Detroit City among winners in recent years, this is an event often claimed by an obvious contender.

Cheltenham Festival runners have a good record (seven out of the last ten have obliged). Many will be anxious to recover Cheltenham losses with Calipto, who was travelling strongly when his jockey became the victim of a slipping saddle in the Triumph.

He will doubtless be heavily supported to make amends but may have to face Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete for a second time.

Betfred Bowl Chase:

In contrast to the opening event, this is often won by the right horse on the right day. That is to say it can be a consolation prize.

This proved to be the case for the likes of First Lieutenant, Follow The Plan, Nacarat and Exotic Dancer – all of whom had been beaten at the highest level coming into the race. Even so they could be relied upon to produce their best form against higher profile rivals that came here after long seasons.

The Pipe stable has farmed four of the last ten runnings, and will field the favourite in Dynaste – who was a winner at this meeting last year.

Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

For anyone unaware of the name – Doom Bar is a particularly tasty bitter that is brewed in Cornwall. Those yet to acquaint themselves of this brew should redress such an oversight as soon as possible.

As for the race, it is the third of four Grade 1 events on the day. The key factor is the step up in trip for Champion Hurdle contenders that are now faced with 2m 4f.

For that reason it does not always pay to rely on Cheltenham form. Only two favourites have obliged over the last ten years (both of those joint favs) but that’s not to say the race favours outsiders.

Irish runners have a good record – they have won five of the last ten renewals. Assuming Annie Power will wait for Punchestown, many will consider this race to be tailor-made for The New One.

Crabbie’s Fox Hunters’ Chase:

Step forward the hero of the Aintree hour in Crabbies’, the alcoholic ginger beer manufacturer that has injected extra lashings of fizz into the meeting by their sponsorship.

This could be one of the races where spectators may want to avail themselves of their product as it invariably favours bookmakers over punters. Last year it was won by a 100/1 shot; in 2010 by a 50/1 chance. Otherwise three of the last ten runnings have resulted in a winning favourite, so the race can supply predictable results to a degree. It does help to have some knowledge of hunter chasing in general and, possibly more importantly, in a race where jockeyship can be paramount, of the riders involved.

Red Rum Handicap Chase:

One way or another, stand by for an unexpected result here. This handicap has thrown up three big price winners in the last ten years (two 20/1 chances and a 25/1 shot) as well as four winning favourites (including co-favs). It is invariably not an easy race to solve.

Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

With only five year’s results to go by, it is a little premature to pinpoint any real trends but so far this, the fourth of the Grade 1s on the day, has gone pretty much according to the script.

Captain Conan won it last year. Trainers Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have won two races apiece. Tartak, in the inaugural running in 2009, was the biggest priced-winner to date for his trainer Tom George.

Plenty will be prepared to oppose Arkle winner Western Warhorse here. Oscar Whisky should be more suited to this track than Cheltenham, but the Irish challenge is potentially a strong one.

Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

A tough three mile hurdle closes the day. This is one of the harder races to get right. Six of the last ten winners have returned at double-figure prices. To balance this out, the other four went to favourites. Unless you unearth a potential blot in the handicap – you know the risk you run when betting in events such as this.

Day Two:

The day starts with a Grade 2 novice hurdle over two miles sponsored by the International Festival for Business. Nicky Henderson has won the last two runnings, with My Tent Or Yours last year and Darlan before that.

With General Miller having supplied a win for Seven Barrows in 2010, Henderson, a top man at this track, will hope to be represented by Josses Hill this time. The opposition is potentially strong. If turning up, Arctic Fire and possibly Cheltenham flop Irving would count as two serious dangers.

It is back to a Grade 1 with the Betfred Mildmay Novices’ Chase. Five of the last ten favourites have obliged for punters, including Dynaste last year. He was preceded by Silvianco Conti in 2012. There have been no real shocks in this over the past ten years. Six of the last ten winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival. A small field seems likely this year.

The Grade 1 Betfred Melling Chase

appears on statistics to be one of the more punter-friendly races with five of the last ten events going to the favourite.

However, with a roll-call that includes top two-milers like Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded and Moscow Flyer, that figure could be misleading. There is nothing of that calibre in this year’s line-up, a race that could well suit Queen Mother third Module over this extended trip.

Topham Chase:

Fifty percent of the last ten winners have been double-figure big prices, which is hardly surprising considering they often bet 10/1 the field.

This is also something of an oddity of a race, being as it is run over the in-between trip of 2m 6f and over the Grand National fences. This can be one of the hardest races at the meeting to call, although that does not prevent punters from piling in.

Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Chase:

At Fishers Cross last year and Black Jack Ketchum in 2006 were the only winning favourites in ten years. There have been four big price winners of this Grade 1 over three miles – often run on quick conditions.

Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle:

Punters are often in need of medication after this has been run. There have been no winning favourites in the last ten years. Sunnyhill Boy at 8/1 was the lowest-priced winner in 2009. 2013 Grand National winner, Aurora’s Encore prevailed in 2008 at odds of 50/1. A race to be wary of.

Concerto Group Mares’ Standard NH Flat Race:

A Flat race for mares – what joy to bring down the curtain on the second day’s proceedings! Turbo Linn in 2007 is the only winning favourite to date. Bring on the Doom Bar!

Grand National Saturday:

Pertemps Network Novices’ Hurdle: Elevated this year to a Grade 1, again the trip of 2m 4f could be partly responsible for some big-priced past winners. Ubak surprised at 22/1 last year. Bouggler won at 16/1 in 2009 and Turpin Green was also something of a shock when winning in 2005 at odds of 14/1. Otherwise there have been three winning favourites and fancied winners in the shape of Simonsig in 2012, Spirit Son in 2011, Elusive Dream in 2008 and Tidal Bay in 2007. The overall impression is that this is a solvable contest if the field is right.

Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase:

Another Grade 1, this time over two miles. Several likely candidates are doubly engaged throughout the meeting, so at this stage it is a question of seeing who turns up.

A small field is likely. There have been five winning favourites in the last ten years – last year’s winner Special Tiara being the only blot in a race that otherwise favours punters.

Silver Cross Stayer’s Hurdle Grade 1:

At 11/2 in 2005, Monet’s Garden was the biggest-priced winner. Four-time winner Big Buck’s and dual-winner Mighty Man give this a wobbly shape as far as betting figures are concerned. More Of That would be popular if turning up; in his absence, At Fishers Cross (same ownership) would probably line up as favourite.

Having improved with every run this year, Whisper would be the dark horse.

And a word of possible interest here. Whisper’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, has an enviable record at this meeting. For that reason it pays to scrutinise his representatives carefully over the week. Bear in mind he is often successful with those runners that are not obvious and at first glance appear to hold only average chances. He often does well in the handicaps.

Betfred TV Handicap Chase:

Only the racing authorities could plan or sanction this!

Here we have a handicap chase over the Mildmay fences run as a curtain-raiser for the Grand National, fifty minutes in advance of the big race of the meeting. Don’t be surprised if there is a shortage of jockeys wishing to take part in this, or a shortage for their scheduled mounts in the Grand National after it. And be prepared for a turn up!

Crabbie’s Grand National:

To a degree luck plays a big part, although the right horse often makes its own luck in this. The poser set for punters is to nominate the right horse for the occasion.

Often first-timers to the track have the edge, so class acts like Rocky Creek and Long Run could be of interest this year.

Aged thirteen and carrying 11st 10lbs, Tidal Bay will have to buck sensible statistics to win.

The favourite, Tea For Three had his chance last year when third and faces stiffer competition this time round.

With a couple of better handicapped contenders (Godsmejudge and Same Difference) now absentees, but worth bearing in mind for events like the Bet 365 Chase at Sandown or the Ayr National, it could be a case of the cream rising to the top in the form of either of the two mentioned.

Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders):

Cockney Sparrow was a winning favourite last year, Lifestyle the 28/1 winner in 2013. The kind of event that could throw up anything! If you are not already in a queue to collect winnings from the Grand National, it could be you shouldn’t be in one to place a bet in this.

Weatherbys Private Banking Champion NH Flat Race:

With winners at 33/1, 50/1, 28/1and 20/1, the past results speak for themselves.

This is not a race for punters tempted to punch their way out of trouble. That said, if there is any cash left, Modus is better than his running at Cheltenham might suggest and is likely to take more of a hand at the finish now if turning up. He does have the four-year-old hoodoo to defy.

These are some preliminary thoughts and ideas for the coming week. We hope you find them useful and that they may help focus you in the right direction.

We shall be posting Free Tips for each day. They should be online by most evenings, commencing on Wednesday.

Good luck…

February Results 2014

February 22nd:

Kempton Results

A good jumping card here got down to serious business with the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle. Second to Calipto at Newbury, Activial, a good-sized juvenile, jumped well and moved strongly throughout. He won with a little in hand and is likely to renew rivalry with Calipto in the Triumph.

Blinkered for the first time, Commissioned came with a chance at the last but veered left and right on the run-in. He was held anyway and his jumping was not slick enough to suggest he can go up a grade. The two French imports now with Paul Nicholls, Solar Impulse and Alcala, were next to finish. Goodwood Mirage once again ran a strange race. It looks as if this is not his game and his stable would be advised to concentrate on an early season Flat handicap.

Superior jumping gained the day for Balder Succes who supplemented his recent Warwick win in the Grade 2 Pendil Novice Chase over two-and-a-half. Quick and athletic, he is not over-big but what he lacks in size he makes up for in neatness. He will wisely miss Cheltenham, taking in Aintree instead – a track that should suit him much better.

The third of the consecutive Grade 2s, the Dovecote Hurdle, featured the return of unbeaten Irving – twice an Ascot scorer this term. In winning his fourth hurdle off the bounce he was impressive. Always travelling, he cruised throughout and despite stepping at the last, was too good for the opposition.

Considering his trainer feels this run will blow the cobwebs away, Irving will surely be hard to beat in the Supreme. Amore Alato stayed on for second with Cup Final a looked-after third in ground that was too testing for him. This was only his second run over hurdles and he is one to note, possibly over two-and-half.

What used to be the Racing Post Chase and is now the BetBright Chase was claimed by Bally Legend, a winner of a N H Flat race last time. Apparently he likes the track.

His success reduced his trainer to tears and possibly one or two punters as well. Bury Parade (best form on right-handed tracks) bravely attempted to defy top weight in second. A 9lbs rise since Ascot and presumably another few pounds after this will make life tough in future. Tour Des Champs, who made much of the running, kept on for third.

Full Shift was a comfortable winner of the Class 3 handicap hurdle from a mark of 124. This was not a strong race so whilst the winner looked good today and may be decent in time, a Cheltenham pop would probably be asking too much at present.

Lingfield Results

The Listed sprint was a hot affair. Tarooq roared back to form on his first run since December, wearing down Rivellino with a fast-finishing Hoof It looking unlucky in third. Iptisam ran above himself in fourth, as did Rummaging in fifth.

Victim of a wide draw, he made up a great deal of ground in the straight. Last at one point, he has confirmed the impression that even at the age of six he is on the upgrade. He has a good record on Polytrack (won three times at Dundalk last year) and can build on this next time. A seventh furlong should not pose a problem.

Grandeur duly won the Winter Derby Trial – as he was entitled to do – against inferior rivals and over his optimum trip. One assumes he will be targeted for the Winter Derby itself before resuming globetrotting activities later in the season. Modernstone was a strong finisher in second in a race where many failed to see out the trip. Most notable amongst these was Anaconda, who made the running but quickly retreated.

February 27th:

Meydan Results

Current form with Zahee and Eastern Rules was crucial in the opening handicap over seven furlongs. Despite having not won for nearly three years, Gold City had split Zahee and Eastern Rules last time and as a result had a marginal weight pull over his main danger My Freedom. Looking a bit rickety, Gold City grabbed the lead early in the straight and quickened away. They were even more rickety in behind. My Freedom took a while to settle and eventually plugged on for second. Kanaf found this much harder than his recent encounters in Jebel Ali, whilst Modern History faded quickly.

In terrific form at present, Medicean Man defied the step up to an extra furlong and a return to synthetics to take the handicap. He was able to pick off his rivals one by one, once again showing a terrific attitude. Rated 7lbs lower on Tapeta than he is on turf, obviously he will be raised as a result of this but may not have stopped winning yet. That said, these sprints are easy pickings at present; they will become harder once the Americans arrive. Racy finished strongly for second although he never threatened to get to grips with the winner. Conveyance has run well enough on his reappearance after almost three years. It remains to be seen if he can back it up. Merhee was once again outpaced. He looks like he is crying out for further.

With Wednaan a virtual non-runner in the Listed (punters still did their money) it was left to My Catch to pick up the pieces. Jallota made up a lot of ground to finish second with Najm Suhail in third. Frankly there is little to draw from this fairly ordinary event except to lament over the apparent fact that Wednaan is unlikely to build on earlier promise after a lack-lustre display that suggested something is adrift.

It was plain sailing for Ihtimal in the UAE Oaks. Having already beaten her main rivals in the Guineas, only the step up in trip to ten furlongs threatened to pose a problem. As it was she was even more impressive this time round. Always cruising she took herself to the front early in the straight and, relishing the surface and stretching right away, was soon clear. She is not far behind the best on offer in this country and now she has proved her stamina her options have been enlarged. Feedyah was once again overwhelmed by the winner’s superior turn of foot but finished an honourable second.
The Group 2 Zabeel Mile keyed up a fascinating clash between Mushreq and Mshawish, both of whom could be expected to improve on their latest runs. Mushreq had been unlucky and Mshawish was a staying on second over an inadequate seven furlongs. With form at Group 1 level in Europe last year, Mshawish was always handy and in a tactical event, made a race-winning move early in the straight which had his rivals toiling. Last year’s winner Trade Storm cut through the pack for second with Mushreq a somewhat tame third.

Tha’ir gained an overdue success in the concluding handicap over 1m 3f against some ragged opposition. Chief amongst these is the bitter disappointment that is Winterlude. He ran no better here than last time when those that kept the faith reached for an expensive bucket of excuses.
February 20th: Meydan:

Granted a 2lbs pull for a length with Zahee on the running in January, Eastern Rules made up the deficit with change in the opening handicap over seven furlongs on turf.

After a cracking effort two weeks ago in a Group 2, Zahee was preferred in the market but despite holding every chance, the strong home run of Eastern Rules was decisive. The win of Eastern Rules was a belated pointer to Mustaheel in the next. Sommerabend narrowly deprived Zahee of second in the last few strides.

It was back to Tapeta for the following handicap – a competitive affair over a mile. The result was something of a shock when ex-Norwegian candidate Avon Pearl emerged best of a final furlong scramble.

Van Rooney chased him home ahead of Ocean Tempest. Mustaheel was never able to negate a wide berth so under the circumstances did well enough in fourth. He needs a change of luck if he is to defy the handicapper.

Intrigo was not disgraced in fifth. Next we come to a catalogue of excuses. Despite his bad draw, String Theory was given every chance when bagging the inner but faded in the straight. In behind were some moody customers who didn’t need too many excuses to down tools. After promise last time, Dragon Falls fluffed the start and when making headway in the straight was badly impeded just as he looked likely to stake a serious claim despite having experienced a rougher passage than a traveller in third-class on an African train. If we could take this at face value he would be worth backing next time; but he may not be straightforward. This was a little too much like hard work for Master Of War and Tales Of Grimm, both of whom were happy to sulk off the pace and stay there.

The sprinters on turf were next up. Medicean Man gained compensation for a narrow defeat three weeks ago, shaking off a strong finishing Ahtoug and Hototo. The winner, now an eight-year-old, is a thoroughly genuine and consistent individual that can never be dismissed at this level and against the sort of tricksters he faced here.

Prix de l’Abbaye runner-up Catcall pulled too hard and was unable to make an impact from top weight.
Abstraction was another that did too much early and, having zigzagged across the course last time and burnt himself out this, as suspected, he looks one to avoid.

Unbeaten after five runs on a synthetic surface going into this, Cat O’Mountain was touted as a possible for the World Cup after a point blank victory in January that has worked out well. Raised 13lbs as a result and drawn wide, nothing short of an improved performance would do if he were to succeed in his toughest task to date.

Posted wide throughout in the hands of Barzalona, who, presumably banking on his mount’s superiority to get him out of trouble, made no attempt to obtain cover, Cat O’Mountain made some headway down the straight but was quickly beaten. Barzalona simply does not understand the gravity of giving away ground round here. Cat O’Mountain did finish tamely (Storm Cat on the distaff side is invariably cause for concern) and the bubble has burst, but he needed to have been at least 7lbs better than the opposition to have won here given the way he was ridden.

You simply cannot afford to forfeit this kind of ground in big field handicaps. Hampered behind Vercingetorix last week and second in the UAE Derby last year, Elleval was a somewhat surprising if not a head-scratching winner. Start Right and Plantagenet were next to finish. After promise last time, Steeler was soon beaten after showing up prominently until the last furlong.

On a day when what was expected to happen failed to pan out, Certify added her name to the roll of dishonour in the Balanchine. The first signs were posted when she became fizzy at the start.

Blindfolded to load, once again, in a small field and drawn low, she worked her way to the outside, from where Barzalona allowed her to swing wide. It probably made no difference as she did not travel with the same ease as we saw last time, but it was certainly of no help. It would be easy to blame the trip, but the pace was slow early and Certify was never doing enough to get to grips with the leaders when it mattered. So the World Cup dream has sunk into the sand. Having looked like a possible serious contender on her reappearance, now the unbeaten run has been smashed, it would seem she will not be asked to race beyond a mile. No doubt she will be aimed at events like the Falmouth at Newmarket in July, but those that witnessed her run here will be in no hurry to entrust her with their money. L’amour De Ma Vie, second to Certify over a mile last time, was always handy and stayed this trip well, seeing out her race to the line from Flotilla and Pearl Of Africa with the disappointing Certify only fourth.

On a horror show of a day for punters, Mujaarib became another victim of mission impossible when stone last early in a slowly run listed over 1m 2f.

When he did find his stride, he made ground hand-over-fist on the wide outside but the race was over as Tasaday had secured first run. The winner is a fair filly (was second in the Prix de l’Opera last year) and the runner-up, Empoli, has decent international form to his credit. Mujaarib was arguably the moral winner and is worth another chance.

February 15th:

Haydock Racing

Well-backed Aurore D’Estruval travelled like the winner in the Victor Ludorum for most of the way, but in very deep ground she was unable to upstage the game pacemaker Abracadabra Sivola. It is unlikely we saw Cheltenham clues here but the first two did pull well clear.

Recent Musselburgh winner Seeyouatmidnight maintained an unbeaten hurdles record in the Grade 2 hurdle. He made all and kept finding in the face of a persistent challenge from Mickie over the last two flights. Running too freely and saddled with a maximum penalty, Celestial Halo, was never in contention in third. The winner does not have a Cheltenham engagement. Sensibly, his trainer is in no hurry to over-face him but an Aintree tilt is a possibility.

One-by-one they dropped away in the Grade 3 Grand National trial, won by Rigadin De Beauchene, who was second in this race last year. In an out-and-out slog they finished very tired. It looked as if Our Father, who came home on legs of rubber, failed to stay.

The Grade 2 hurdle over three miles found out many of the runners in what developed into a chapter of incident. Wuff was never going from flight one. Straidnahanna was pulled-up in the straight when beaten. Oscar Rock put up a laboured effort, eventually finishing a distant third to the mare, the improving Toubeera.

Ascot Racing

After failing to light any fires at Haydock on debut in this country, the expensive Un Temps Por Tout looked more at home over 2m 3f in the heavy and was able to dot up. The opposition was hardly testing but this was a step in the right direction and it now seems two miles is too sharp.

In what was a Grand National trial, Restless Harry landed a big prize at the expense of Teaforthree, who had looked the winner for most of the way. Having jumped impeccably throughout, a minor mistake four out knocked him out of stride and probably cost him the contest. Highland Lodge was too keen early and predictably failed to finish. For the prize-money on offer, this was not a strong race.

The Group 2 RSA Trial featured at least two credible Cheltenham contenders beforehand, although both were beaten. Second here in December and then a bitter disappointment at Haydock, O’ Faolians Boy returned to form when nudging aside his better fancied rivals. Many Clouds jumped well and plugged on but lacked the finishing kick. He was attempting to concede 4lbs to the winner, but that was not his undoing.

Lightly-framed Gevrey Chambertin – the chalk to the cheese that is Many Clouds – set off in front on this his first outing over fences, jumping well. The way he failed to finish will have disappointed his supporters. It is hard to blame the trip.

At Wincanton, a confidently-ridden Melodic Rendezvous got the better of Zarkandar in the Kingwell, thus keeping the Cheltenham dream alive for connections.

February 13th:

Meydan Racing

It was all Winterlude in the market for the opening handicap. Unbeaten in two attempts on an artificial surface, he was returning to action after four months absence.

Current form held sway with Sanshaawes (fourth to Gabrial last time) always handy and able to poach a handy advantage early in the straight. As was the case last time, he was awash in the preliminaries, but it does not seem to affect his racing. They dived for the line in behind – Storm Belt clinging on for second ahead of Energia Davos (third to the interesting prospect Cat O’Mountain). Winterlude stayed on down the straight but as it turned out was given too much to do. A step up to a mile-and-a-half might suit him better, but on this evidence he is no better than his current rating
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After Iktimal’s success in the UAE 1,000 last week, Godolphin was mob-handed in the colts’ equivalent, won last year by Soft Falling Rain.

As well as Safety Check and Emirates Flyer, they introduced two four-year-olds with solid Australian form in Long John and Paximadia. Blinkered for the first time and posted wide in the race, class allowed Long John to sweep past his rivals on the turn and quickly put the race beyond recall.

They weren’t bad horses in behind, but he was a lot better. In a separate race for places, solid yardstick Emirates Flyer was second ahead of staying on Yarmouth winner Wednaan. Another with rateable form, Safety Check was fourth. Asmar was not disgraced against more experienced rivals. The winner is now apparently to step up in distance to contest the UAE Derby, for which he is likely to be favourite.

The following handicap presented the South African Vercingetorix with a chance to extend an unbeaten run of four. As a Grade 1 winner in his home country, the race largely revolved around him. A mark of 108 offered an opportunity which he took.

Perfectly handled by Soumillon (rides this track as well as anyone), he was possibly in front longer than ideal and, although his jockey had to roust him in the last furlong, he did enough to hang on. Nine furlongs may be the absolute ceiling as far as stamina is concerned.

In second, a closing Code Of Honor posted fair warning that he should have his day here before too long. It was a case of what-you-see-is what-you-get with the rest. In fourth, hold-up horse Gabrial weaved his way through without every looking likely to throw his hat in the ring.

The international theme continued in the Group 3 over a mile. Once again it was the South African representative that attracted all the market support. Variety Club, a six-year-old with a prolific winning record at the highest grade in his home country, was expected to follow up on Vercingetox’s win.

He kept the action bubbling with a demolition job. In front a long way from home, he was going away pleasingly in the last furlong and looks another to note for next time.

In second, Haatheq brought a decent level of form to the contest. Although racing over an inadequate trip, it would have been nice to see Mars show a bit of encouragement. Arguably an under-achiever last year with the O’Brien team – but in the highest grade – he dropped away tamely and underlined the difficulty of attempting to pick up the pieces with ex-Ballydoyle inmates.

The Group 3 sprint over six furlongs turned out to be a messy affair. In the dash to the line it was a case of last man standing. Russian Soul got the breaks and exacted revenge on United Color for defeat last time. United Color got no run up the inner, which did not help but saying it cost him the race would be a brave call. Despite his form looking decidedly shaky, Jamsie ran well but his presence throws something of a doubt of the validity of this as an event we can refer back to.

A cracking day concluded with the Class 1 handicap that, with the inclusion of Meandre, Sheikhzayedroad and Dabadiyan, looked a good quality race.

Songcraft, not always one to rely on, ran over the top of them all. He did look extra special well. With a record of performing best fresh, it may be this will not be repeated. At the age of six, Meandre made a brave effort in second. He does carry his head awkwardly these days and, with this being on recently freshened turf from overnight rain, again he may struggle next time when it rides faster. Sheikhzayedroad – currently in fighting form – made up plenty of ground from the rear to finish third. Dabadiyan ran to form in fourth.

Saturday February 8th:

Newbury Racing Results

Although odds-on, the victory of Calipto in the Grade 3 novice hurdle should not be underplayed.

As a four-year-old, he was effectively conceding 10lbs to his older rivals. These included third-placed Seedling, who had displayed promise last time over this course. Calipto jumped soundly and was entitled to finish tired. Even so, he ran to the line and looks a serious Triumph Hurdle contender.

As expected, stamina won the day in the Denman Chase. Harry Topper quickened (if that is the right expression in this ground) at the turn to draw clear. A touch slow, he jumps, stays and soft ground suits.

Not for the first time Al Ferof left the impression three miles is not his best trip. He plugged on better than a disappointing Katenko, who was beaten in a stride, but is surely better over two-and-a-half.

With experience against established chasers outside novice company, Module outstayed and outgunned his three rivals in the Grade 2.

Raya Star was erratic at his fences and Desert Cry never went a yard. Module jumped well but Dodging Bullets looked all set to draw clear when cruising into the lead at the last. To an extent he curled on the run-in. In view of the fact he had done everything right, the fact the runner-up was unable to finish off his race was disappointing. Module is likeable, but possibly not good enough to win an Arkle.

Just when you thought it was safe…along comes Splash Of Ginge in the Betfair Hurdle to put bookmakers back in the game.

Light weights held the call with the well handicapped Irish Saint doing best of those at the head of the handicap. Running from a 5lbs penalty – putting him 7lbs well-in according to the handicapper – on this evidence it will be hard for him when his new rating kicks in.

Of the beaten horses, Dell ‘Arca and Cheltenian did enough to suggest there will be other days. Alaivan made up a great deal of ground to finish as well as anything.

Warwick Racing Results

Glens Melody and Mischievous Milly renewed rivalry under the same terms in the listed mares’ event, with the same result. Although Mischievous Milly made a brave attempt, Glens Melody jumped much the better (except for at the second-last where a mistake gave the runner-up a second chance) and, despite the narrow margin, looks the better mare.

Although unlikely to win an Arkle, Balder Succes is surely not too far away from that standard, particularly given his style of jumping. A neat athletic sort that is nimble over his fences, although his shortcomings were exposed at Sandown behind Hinterland, he beat a fair yardstick in Brick Red here.
February 6th:

Meydan Results

Third to Zahee last week, Eastern Rules toughed it out in a typically tight Meydan handicap finish.

Mustaheel flashed home fast and last from out wide and could be considered unlucky in second. My Freedom ran roughly up to his present rating, whereas Master Of War, who was under pressure for some way, eventually saw out his race in fourth. Alnashmy was fifth after holding every chance throughout.

It is debatable how good the Class 1 Classic Trail over seven furlongs was. After two runs at Kempton, including a seven length victory in his maiden, well-touted Pretend was the market order.

Although he looks the part in his slower paces, he pulled hard early and failed to finish, ending up like a horse that wants dropping in trip or that is possibly not right. Whatever they do, they will need to teach him how to settle if he is to progress. He’s No Saint, a winner of a Dundalk maiden last year, came out best in a bunch finish.

The Listed 1,000 Guineas was a much better contest – Godolphin fielding the first two in the betting with recent winner Wedding Ring and Iktimal, who had the better domestic form, and was having her first outing on Tapeta and in Meydan.

Word had it Iktimal had settled well in Dubai and victory was expected. A compact filly, she was on her toes at the start and a little warm. She almost missed the break and then, slow to settle, sacrificed her position, meaning she had to race wide. As we saw last year, she has a turn of foot, which got her out of trouble. She was able to finish nicely on top of Mensoora, who was soundly beaten by the impressive Certify last week. Wedding Ring, who had a similar passage to the winner, lacked her change of pace and could only plug on in the straight for fourth.

Excellent Result and Certerach, closely matched on their running last time, fought out the finish of the 1m 6f handicap with the gallant Star Empire (last year’s winner) a close third. This was Star Empire’s opportunity after an eye-catching prep-run, but the slow early gallop failed to play to his strengths. He is handicapped to the hilt.

The Al Maktoum Challenge (Group 2) was the quality affair of the night. Not seen since fifth in last year’s World Cup, African Story was favourite, facing several interesting contenders that may have other targets in their sights.

In the event, finishing strongly from out of the clouds, African Story looked unlucky, closing down Prince Bishop with every stride. Prince Bishop was enterprisingly handled by Keiren Fallon, who had him handily placed before kicking clear.

Of the rest, Zambucca and Zahee ran above themselves for third and fourth; Dunaden, over an inadequate trip, finished strongly and will be much sharper next time. He is no back number. This is often the place to be teased by horses of yesteryear.

Having travelled kindly until the turn, Battle Of Marengo proved a damp squib, leaving the impression the boys from Ballydoyle knew what they were doing when they sold him. Heavy Metal only improved marginally from last time.

Mont Ras just lasted in the face of a strong last furlong challenge from El Estruendoso in the concluding handicap.

February 1st:

Ffos Las results

Up 28lbs since initiating his hat-trick at Sandown, Saphir Du Rheu took another step up the ladder with success in the limited hurdle that is the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

It was tight with Whisper, who had a 21lbs pull with the winner for a nine-length beating at Sandown. Arguably, but for a blip at the last, he would have won, but Saphir Du Rheu is all quality and kept on strongly having made every yard of the running in very soft ground.

Rated 158 for this (presumably at least 164 for the future), handicaps are surely out for the winner now. Only five, his trainer is understandably enthusiastic about Saphir Du Rheu’s chasing prospects, claiming that remains the priority. Even so, he would be an able deputy for Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle if so required.

Sandown Results

Barry Geraghty’s perseverance paid off in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles chase as he held Oscar Whisky together in spite of an unconvincing round of jumping. This was Oscar Whisky’s third win over fences.

With only two rivals against him – one of whom, Benvolio, was quickly beaten – at odds of 1/6 he laboured to master Manyriverstocross; although he was on top in the end despite finishing all-out. This sheds little light on the winner’s prospects for Cheltenham. It may be worth pointing out that Oscar Whisky’s runs over fences have so far been in small fields.

The day’s racing did not consist of just two races. However, the cards largely consisted of racing for racing’s sake and little else of note was seen.
January 30th:

Meydan Results

Saudi Arabian mare Alsaaeqah sprang a surprise in the opening handicap over five furlongs. Delivered late, she came out best with a tight chasing pack snapping at her heels.

Of these, Medicean Man was a fast-closing third, and possibly a touch unlucky.

Abstraction appears to have run a blinder in fourth on this his first start of the campaign. With a marked splayed action he doesn’t look the soundest of animals. He jinked across the course in the final furlong. If he can be relied upon to reproduce this run, he would be of interest next time. The kinder Tapeta surface might suit him better.

Of the rest, Ahtoug was given too much to do. He did make up ground without being able to get to grips with the principals. Merhee – a winner over a mile in South Africa – was never able to challenge over this minimum trip.

The following handicap over nine furlongs did not look one of the stronger events staged here. Ottoman Empire enjoyed the best run and it helped in a tight finish as String Theory launched the most serious challenge from slightly wider out. Mullen on the winner and Dettori on the second rode this track as it needs to be ridden.

Conversely, Barzalona – not for the first time – threw his chance away on Intrigo, sacrificing his position early and forcing his mount to cover unnecessary extra ground.

They chose the Group 2 Cape Verdi for the comeback of unbeaten Certify, who had such a lucrative juvenile career (when she beat Sky Lantern amongst others), before the debacle that was the doping scandal that ruled her out of her second season. She retained her record under a confident ride, cruising up to the pace on the outside of the field.

L’Amour De Ma Vie was the only one to give her a race in second. Pearl Of Africa was best of the rest. Shuruq (yet to win on turf) and Flotilla (last year’s French 1,000 winner but a disappointment since and again today) put up little resistance. Mensoora was also well beaten. Certify looks back on-song and will be hard to beat next time – presumably in the Balanchine.

On a mixed card quality-wise, Zahee was too good for his rivals in the seven furlong handicap. This was a typical Meydan handicap field, consisting of lights of yesteryear and largely inconsistent or unwilling participants. The winner has the ability but his attitude leaves plenty to be desired. All credit to Soumillon for coaxing this horse home.

The Group 2 Al Rashidiya on turf promised to be a class event. After a false start, in a last furlong scramble Mujaarib stole the race from Mushreq in the dying stages. Normally something of a guide for the Duty Free, it would be a surprise if that was the case this year.

Maputo and Steeler ran okay races; Trade Storm, after a slow start, was chopped for room on the inner and can do better.

Saxo Jack rounded off the night in the handicap, beating Halfaguinea, who was flattered by his proximity to easy winner Cat O’ Mountain last time, but has nevertheless endorses the validity of that form.

January 25th:

Cheltenham Results

Five previous winners lined up for the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial – Chepstow Grade 1 winner Le Rocher finishing strongly up a sodden hill to prevail from Kentucky Hyden.

This is the third race he was won on soft/heavy ground. On what he have seen, good though he was made to look here, we are in the dark about his ability to be as effective on a faster surface. Runner-up, Kentucky Hyden has been beaten twice now by the winner and, with a preference for this ground, we have to conclude this is as good as he is.

Jumping well, Vicenzo Mio made the running, but was beaten without an apparent excuse. On a day when margins were likely to be extended by the ground, these three were clear.

Ballyglasheen struggled on for fourth. Once again Ronaldinho gave the impression he failed to stay. Hiked in class, Goodwood Mirage was keen early and went from cruising to labouring very quickly.

Indian Castle outstayed and out jumped his rivals in the Class 2 handicap. It was desperate stuff, made all the more so by Annacotty and Super Villan going off like lunatics from flag-fall. Still disputing it at the last, Annacotty kept battling all the way to the line.

In fourth, Ohio Gold deserves to win something of this nature. He is making heavy weather of breaking his duck over fences but it can’t be said he is obviously doing anything wrong. The step up to this trip on this ground looked to undo Dark Lover, whose mark of 142 looks a shade high anyway.

For whatever reason, The Italian Yob was never in a rhythm. Following such an accomplished round of jumping last time at Sandown, a mistake at the first was followed by several other untidy jumps. Possibly he needs to return to right-handed tracks – certainly he could not be considered again at Cheltenham.

To be frank there was not much to take from the Grade 3 handicap won by Wishfull Thinking. His winning mark of 156 is a fair reflection of his ability on a going day.

Double Ross travelled well but was unable to quicken from the last, his hat-trick bid foiled on the uphill slog.

The enigma that is The Giant Bolster finally had his day in the Grade 2 Argento Chase. Wearing a hood and a visor, he stalked the leaders, asserting on the run-in. To be fair he does run well at this track, but only the brave would expect him to reproduce this next time.

Jumping cleverly and competently, Rocky Creek had every chance at the last but perhaps found the ground too testing. Conceding 5lbs to the winner (who has been placed in a Gold Cup), in any other yard, Rocky Creek would be targeted for the Gold Cup in March. As it is, his jumping makes the National an obvious target, although the handicapper will not be lenient.

After finishing a dogged third at Doncaster, should the ground come up soft, Unioniste is surely another possible candidate for the Nicholls yard.

Red Sherlock continued his current run with a hard-fought success over Rathvinden in the Grade 2 hurdle over two-and-half. The front two (both decent novices) were clear of Aubusson in third. Rathvinden was a faller behind Deputy Dan at Warwick but has good form to his credit in Ireland.

It was heartbreak for team Big Buck’s in the Cleeve Hurdle. Having looked likely to defy the years and the injury, he was run out of it up the hill. At the age of eleven, it was a big ask; although he did not pick up where he left off, this was a massive effort on desperate ground meaning the World Hurdle is still a realistic option.

It was a satisfactory comeback effort even though the 66/1 chance Knockara Beau was not the most obvious of winners. At Fishers Cross ran his best race of the season in second and on this evidence his hat is back in the ring for the Festival.

Eighth in the Triumph Hurdle last year, Lac Fontaine made a mark of 127 look generous in the concluding handicap. After disappointing at Ascot, Totalize recovered his form to chase him home.

January 23rd:

Meydan Results

Making up plenty of ground from a mile back after a slow early pace, it would be remiss not to mention Excellent Result in the twelve furlong handicap who, from the widest draw of all, eventually finished a never-nearer fourth behind Certerach. Proven at this trip and beyond, whilst not obviously well handicapped, he at least deserves consideration next time.

After only five runs, dual-winner Alexandra Palace – a runner in a Group 1 in South Africa – defied a bad draw (fifteen of sixteen) to swoop late in the Gulf News Handicap. This was a strong handicap and the manner of victory suggests he can progress further at this meeting.

Mike de Kock, now off the mark after a traditional slow start, also saddled the fourth with the match-fit Disa Leader. In a tight finish, Solar Deity was edged out of the money in fifth but performed well enough, as did Derbaas who, having been berthed wide twice now, deserves better luck with the draw.

They found the right race for Windhoek, who, despite a wide draw and having plenty to do was always travelling, eventually responding to a brave ride from De Sousa in the Xpress Handicap. In another bunch finish he got up near the line from a fit Layali Al Andalus.

Disappointments were Daddy Long Legs (no real excuse) and Zip Top (has done well physically since we last saw him in the Racing Post when runner-up to Camelot but looked somewhat edgy).

Group 2 action followed with the Al Fahidi over seven furlongs. Anaerobio was in the right place throughout and gained first run over nearest pursuer and slightly unlucky Mshawish.

Pearl Flute was next to finish ahead of Iguazu Falls, whose form tied in with the winner. If the De Kock yard got it right with the winner, it looked as if they had no intention of letting the decent Heavy Metal get in the way.
Returning after 201 days absence and over an inadequate trip, he was never put in the race but was a finisher. He could be a different proposition over a mile next time.

Favourite in the last, Sanshaawes got very warm beforehand. It was no surprise he failed to fire. Despite a desperate start and lying last for most of the way, Jamie Spencer conjured a run from the under-achieving Gabrial, who cut the leaders down with a well-timed challenge inside the last furlong.

El Estruendoso did best from the De Kock stable in second, further emphasising the stable is about to become a major force for the rest of this meeting.

Feb 2014

MEYDAN
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 13TH

If it’s Thursday, it must be Meydan:

2.45:

The card starts with a competitive handicap. Energia Davos injects interest as his third last time to emphatic winner Cat O’Mountain could well provide a pointer to the winner’s future prospects at the Carnival. The form already looks solid, but such was the manner of Cat O’Mountain’s win, he looks booked for more elevated targets. Energia Davos should run his race from his eight draw.

Sanshaawes will be on most short lists after finishing fourth three weeks ago to Gabrial. He may well have posed more of a problem but for sweating badly beforehand and his supporters will hope he is more placid this time round. This race fails to offer much in the way of ammunition for would-be punters.

3.20:

The UAE 2,000 Guineas presents us with a hotchpotch of a field. Godolphin’s ex-Australian duo Long John and Paximadia (preferred in that order) potentially look to be a cut above other Godolphin representatives Safety Check and Emirates Flyer.

With both the Antipodeans reappearing after layoffs, it remains to be seen how ready they are to do themselves justice.

Full Combat will line up fit after a recent spin round this track when behind Emirates Flyer. He may be capable of improving on that, whilst the unexposed Asmar threatens to be an interesting participant along with Yarmouth winner Wenaan, who is now with Mike De Kock and could be anything.

3.55:

Gale Force Ten would be the topical tip here, but jockey bookings and his record since winning at Royal Ascot means he is unlikely to successfully carry his penalty to victory. This valuable handicap revolves round Grade 1 South African winner, Vercingetorix, who is unbeaten after only four runs and if lining up fit looks potentially well-treated.

4.30:

It is a surprise to see that Ballydoyle have parted with Mars – a horse that has always shaped as if he is likely to benefit from further than this trip. By Galileo out of a Danehill mare, pedigree confirms that. Maybe we will see him to better advantage with today’s run under his belt.

Prolific graded South African winner, Variety Club could easily be good enough. These two look the class acts, but with them reappearing after lengthy absences, questions remain.

It’s a good card. At this stage, we could do with a clue or two…


 

EYE OF THE STORM

Those of a nervous disposition may want to avert their eyes. Right now it is difficult to comment on any events other than those that are happening beneath the interminable grey skies enclosing this little island of ours. Are we really in danger of floating off to sea – or sinking into it?

Nothing can minimise the anguish felt by those victims of the current monsoon. It is a tragedy of monumental proportions. At some point the rain will stop, but the damage it has wreaked will remain and take months and years to remove.

Violation of one’s own house ranks as one of the worst of all nightmares. A house, or dwelling, may only be bricks and mortar, but to those living within, it represents an extension of themselves. Everything from the pictures on the wall to the artefacts they have collected over the years – not to mention the invisible ones known as memories – can be swept away in an instant, never to be recovered.

I know this does not compare to the poverty and desperation we witness elsewhere in the world. Those waterlogged and wellie-squelching residents on the banks of the Thames are not about to be victims of a drought or a hurricane or even a marauding wild animal, but comparisons in misery is pointless. Misery is just that – misery.

Despite an abundance of warning, the current situation seems to have caught the authorities out. In true political style, they have looked skyward as yet more clouds fat with rain rumbled overhead, assuming all that is truly awful cannot last for any length of time.

Unfortunately, Nature works to its own agenda. At last, those in Westminster realise war has been declared. It seems their response as yet is limited. In a lighter vein, their inaction caused me to speculate how short we are of much-needed members of the armed forces. A good number are still marooned in the useless mission that is Afghanistan. I had this vision of an old sweat out there, standing to attention before his C.O., complaining: “Please Sir, don’t post me to Surbiton!”

Joking aside, the marshy plains lapping toward the capital have contrived to present Messrs Cameron and co with their first real test of leadership. Up to now they have had it easy. Pontificating about the high speed train link, culling badgers and paying lip service to gays pales into insignificance in comparison.

Now is the time for action not fancy talk. Nigel Farage has already seized the initiative, suggesting foreign aid cash is diverted to a crisis closer to home – on our doorstep in fact. Obviously this resonates with the rank and file. There may be underlying reasons why we send money to Somali pirates, fantasists in Ethopia and tin-pot dictators in the Heart Of Darkness that is other parts of Africa; it’s just we fail to see what they are.

Similarly, to give hard cash to India – a country close to my heart but that nevertheless has a space program that outstrips ours – seems bonkers. Will they allow us to board their gleaming rockets bound for a new home when this poor planet crashes and burns? A question mark is surely superfluous there.

If only we would learn from what is currently happening in the rest of the world. Nowhere is immune. America, The Philippines, Greenland, Maldives, Seychelles, Bangladesh, Japan, America, Russia and Australia have all felt the impact of the much-disputed effects of global warming.

Those that deny the repercussion of global warming will presumably remove their heads from the sand when the weather improves, which of course it will. But how many more warnings do we as a species need? What will it take before we accept we are making a mess of the third planet from the sun – the one that, by a freak or the sheer law of probability, has unique conditions conducive to life. It would be a travesty if we threw it all away because of apathy. The answer is not to build wind farms or to limit the use of the petrol engine.

The first step is to prevent unnecessary action compounding our problems. Stop idiots burning car tyres in parts of Russia and the Middle East so that toxic black smoke mingles with sweet air. Stop the culling of the rain forests – pay those that have them to keep them. Cut out some of these stupid extreme so-called sports that burn a gallon of petrol a second so that coloured vapour trails can speckle the sky. These and other remedies to our problems might be a start. Of course those that make a living out of burning tyres and screaming through the air in planes or skimming over lakes in jet skis will complain. Tough! We have to start somewhere. Better they complain than we have those dependent on fuel for legitimate purposes, such as getting to work and visiting Tesco and B&Q once a week, squealing.

What am I saying? Nothing will be done. When the interminable rain is shrivelled by the sun’s after burn we will assume normality has returned – until next time that is.
Sorry, as you will have deduced, I am finding it difficult to focus on racing – what there is of it – at present. Give it three more weeks and we will have to turn our attention to Cheltenham and roll out the perennial will-they-or-won’t-they questions. But at this moment the Festival seems a world away.

Horses or not, I did strike a bet recently. I backed Leonardo DiCaprio to win Best Actor at the Oscars. It was the classic situation; I could not resist a massive price. He is an unlikely winner, but his performance in The Wolf On Wall Street was exceptional, meaning he was no 50/1 shot. So I availed myself of a monkey to a tenner, only to find his price is now in single figures.

Funnily enough I thought I could amass a bookie-busting Lucky Fifteen based on a couple of hunches. 12 Years A Slave is tipped to win everything. Maybe; but the competition is stiff this year. As well as The Wolf (Best Actor and Supporting Actor), Gravity (Best Director and Actress Sandra Bullock), The Dallas Buyers Club (Best Actor likely but not 1/10), Captain Philllips and Nebraska are solid contenders – although in a strong year they will struggle to win anything. Two films that as sprawling messes belong on a separate list despite having somehow managed to become nominated for various awards are American Hustle (a wasted opportunity of what could have been a good film and one that only sparks into life for the five minutes when Robert De Niro appears), and the shambolic shouting match that is August: Osage County.

My proposed Lucky Fifteen comprised of selections priced at such long odds, so much so I could not even calculate how much I might have won to a lousy ten pence stake. Last count was somewhere in the region of £40,000. Needless to say, with selections that were associated, bookmakers were not prepared to accept multiple bets. Fair enough, they are unlikely anyway. I was temporarily the victim of the I know-that-can’t-win-but-the-price-is-way-too-big syndrome! Back to the drawing board for me!

And tomorrow is Meydan. At present, having no wish to back horses that slip and slide all over the place and then get beaten a country mile, Meydan occupies the majority of my thought-processes as far as racing is concerned. It is hard to back a winner there. Races are often tactical affairs and sometimes we are forced to guess whether a once decent horse can regain form that would entitle it to win in lesser company. As a rule the answer is, no. But it doesn’t deter me.

They might be going down at Kelso tomorrow, but I shall be in Dubai – in spirit anyway. My comments on the card will be posted shortly, dependent on how elongated Bob’s lunch has been! I doubt they will do you much good, and being honest, I probably won’t even bet. Even so, it keeps my hand in. You never know, I might even winkle out a whomper here if it ever stops raining!


 

SATURDAY

FEBRUARY 8TH

It’s a case of the usual guess-up when trying to evaluate Saturday’s Lingfield card; whilst we tilt the crystal ball to a different angle when weighing up the Newbury options, where the weather could be the deciding factor.

I live seven miles from Newbury racecourse (they can call it Racecourse Newbury all they like!) and although racing would have been possible today, the forecast for tomorrow is appalling. Onward and upward as they say; since when did we allow the weathermen to have the last word?

1.20:

Although you would expect him to win, Calipto is no good thing in the opener as he has to concede weight-for-age to his rivals. As a four-year-old, he effectively carries a l0lb penalty. With the promising Justification and Seedling to contend with this is no simple task, but should he accomplish it, in a wide open year he would put himself into the Triumph Hurdle reckoning.

2.25:

Although officially the best horse in the line-up, Al Ferof may struggle to confirm that in these conditions. Conversely, from the in-form yard of Venetia Williams, Katenko will relish the ground and comes here after a mighty effort at Haydock in the Peter Marsh. He looks to be hitting his stride after two earlier disappointments this season and has his best chance of grabbing Grade 2 success in this field, where Al Ferof apart, his opponents look sub-standard.

3.35:

If we get this far, Irish Saint does look well-in on his 5lbs penalty after his Ascot rout in similar conditions. A fit and well Montbazon would be a credible alternative if returning in top fettle. Last seen when fourth in the 2012 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle behind Cinders And Ashes, he brings a touch of class to the event. It could be significant that stable jockey Robert Thornton appears to favour him over November course winner Vendor.

Like Montblazon, Vasco Du Ronceray was highly-tried as a juvenile and makes his reappearance here. It would be premature to dismiss Dell ‘Arca who was travelling well when brought down in the Ladbroke.

Warwick Racing

2.20:

A case can be made for Mischievous Milly reversing places with Glens Melody as she did meet with interference last time and has only three-parts of a length to find.

On another conundrum of a day, Katenko is seen as having the best winning chance of those mentioned in Newbury’s 2.25.

MEYDAN THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6th:

The Carnival that is Dubai is beginning to take shape. Although this week’s card is not easy, it may be possible to identify a couple of likely winners and certainly some horses of future interest.

3.15: Alnashmy’s record on an artificial surface, allied to a highly encouraging pipe-opener three weeks ago means he lines up here with just about the best claims. So long as he can utilise the lowest draw of all, he looks the one to beat in this competitive handicap.

4.25: Godolphin look poised to dominate in this listed event where Wedding Ring bids to follow up after a comfortable win on this surface three weeks ago.

However, her main danger, Ihtimal has reportedly thrived since arriving in the desert and is expected to come out the better. Arguably disappointing in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket when given too much to do behind subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Chriselliam, there is already talk of her becoming a major contender at Newmarket in the Guineas. She will need to win here to justify such optimism.

5.05: Last year’s winner Star Empire shaped with plenty of promise when third here three weeks ago to Sheikhzayedroad and all the signs are he has been prepared with this mind. He threatens to be hard to beat. However, dangers abound. Of these, Certerach and Statutory look the most potent.

5.40: This Group 2 is one of the races of the day. Zahee cannot be relied upon to reproduce last week’s running, and even if he does encounters much stronger opposition now.

The Godolphin representatives, Hunter’s Light and African Story will have their supporters as both were effective here last year. Last seen in December in the Hong Kong Vase, Dunaden is a proven class act in this sort of company but the trip (may be short of his best) and an unknown surface makes it hard to be confident. As this is his first run since the Vase, he may improve for the run and other targets could be in sight.

Heavy Metal is one of two potentially interesting runners. He was never put in the race last week over an inadequate seven furlongs and now steps up to a much more suitable distance. The booking of Richard Hughes indicates better is now expected.

Last seen in the Grand Prix de Paris, Battle Of Marengo now returns to action after having finished fourth in last year’s Derby. By Galileo, but out of a speedy Green Desert mare, he always gave the impression that this would be his optimum trip – something his past record indicates. Fitness has to be taken on trust, but despite leaving Aidan O’Brien’s stable he is in good hands and with Dettori booked, could run well on his comeback. The market may be the best guide in a tough contest.

6.15: Narrowly beaten by Gabrial two weeks ago, El Estruendoso should be cherry-ripe in this concluding handicap.

Four for a Lucky Fifteen would be

3.15: Alnashmy
4.25: Ihtimal
5.05: Star Empire
6.15: El Estruendoso.

Best of the Day: Alnashmy.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 1ST:
(updated Friday 3.45pm)

Racing limps into a new month with Sandown planning an all-chase card. However, with the possibility of further rain it is entirely possible racing there may be still be in jeopardy. Even if Sandown goes ahead, it is hard to be confident about backing anything on a cobbled-together program that hangs by a thread.

The main event on the card is the Scilly Isle Novices’ chase, which has cut up to a field of three. Course and distance winner Oscar Whisky will be short to continue a current run over fences. Benvolio looks a bigger danger than Manyriverstocross but lacks the class of Oscar Whisky.

That said backing horses on virtually unraceable ground is never advisable – particularly at short prices.

If Ffos Las goes ahead the feature there is the limited handicap that is the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

One gets the impression the handicapper is frustrated by Saphir Du Rheu, hiking him by a further 13lbs after his impressive victory in the Lanzarote. After finishing third to Saphir Du Rheu at Sandown, Whisper re-opposes on 21lbs better terms for just over nine lengths. On the face of it that should be enough, but such is the improvement shown by Saphir Du Rheu he could easily follow-up.

The 12lbs rise accorded to Mountainous for his head win in the Welsh Grand National from two similarly-rated rivals – split by Tidal Bay – is yet another example of the handicapper’s intransience. As said before, it is not the handicapper’s function to prevent horses from winning; they should merely be rated on what they have achieved.

A 7lbs rise for Mountainous would have seemed adequate at this stage. He faces another slog in the 2.40 and makes no appeal from a betting perspective.

The Lingfield card is the same-old-same-old to a degree.

The 3.30 there may be worth a second look. Three of the field of eight are marginally out of the handicap, but appear to be up against it in any case.

Likely favourite Blue Wave has been hiked up by 10lbs after a dubious win at Southwell last time and now stares a 16lbs rise in the face since winning over course and distance earlier in January. On the face of it he hardly looks well-treated.

It has been a long time between drinks for Mawaakef who last won from this mark in December 2012. He has not run to that form since and his latest third in an amateur riders’ event requires improving upon.

Grendisar is a little more appealing. His latest effort can be disregarded as an attempt at two miles only confirmed (as per his breeding) that he failed to stay. However, he is in a race with the handicapper, who is loading him with weight as a result of his consistency.

In an event where nothing looks particularly well-treated, top weight Swing Alone may have the best chance at the weights. He has reached a plateau from a mark of 90 and from only 3lbs higher here, he should at least be in the mix. There is every indication he will get a trip he has yet to win over, but he ran well enough over a mile-and-a-half in January. His five length beating by String Theory at Wolverhampton in December reads well enough in the light of the winner’s close second at Meydan on Thursday.

So Swing Alone is the best idea on a day that frankly will make more appeal to bookmakers than it does to punters.

We are pulling out of winter and approaching an interesting time of the year.

Cheltenham is just over five weeks away. The Carnival in Dubai continues to turn and how quickly the Flat will start. Then along comes the glitz of the Grand National. It will be Newmarket’s Craven and Classic trials from Newbury and sometimes hidden amongst the chocolate silver paper trail leading to the Easter cards at Kempton. Sometimes you have to be patient…

CHASING THE BIG BUCKS

Right now, what with conditions as they are, seems like the perfect time for a spot of speculation. To be frank, unless like me you are a Meydan fan, there is not a lot else to do.

Saturday’s racing at Cheltenham gave us all food for thought. The biggest question was whether Big Buck’s could still be included on the Cheltenham Festival menu after what was surely a gigantic effort in the Cleeve Hurdle.

After fifteen months absence and a tendon injury, at the age of eleven, Big Buck’s should arguably have been putting Felicity and Rupert through their paces at a riding school.

Yet here he was: back in action in a Grade 2, on ground that was softer than ideal, according to Paul Nicholls short of peak fitness, travelling strongly against serious opposition and for the most part looking like the winner.

Jumping the last in front with ears pricked, it seemed the wand in the sky was about to revive all the old magic. However, not for the first time, the uphill slog changed the complexion of the race. In a cruel twist of fate, Big Buck’s was caught halfway up the run-in, beaten less than a length by both 66/1 shot Knockara Beau and At Fishers Cross.

Although disappointing to the legions that had trouped to Cheltenham, whilst the hats were not twirling in the air, the old boy had covered himself in glory. Giving weight to the two that finished ahead of him and seeing off his main market rivals Reve De Sivola and Boston Bob (both of whom ran poorly it has to be said), his fans left the course muttering that it would all be different is six weeks. Bring on the World Hurdle!

And bring it on indeed they will! Whatever the merit of Saturday’s run (and it was surely considerable both from an equine and human point of view), Big Buck’s will face no shortage of pretenders to his crown come the Festival. His Cleeve run poses several interesting questions.

The first of these has to be: Did the Big Buck’s we saw on Saturday bear any resemblance to the one of old. He certainly looked the same. But as we all know, looking and being are two entirely different entities. First reaction was to feel relief that the horse had survived the ordeal. But when the adrenalin had subsided to be replaced by cold clinical evaluation, the figures on the page made for less heady reading.

Forget the close to miraculous achievement from his trainer to get the horse back on the track and the way Big Buck’s galloped to near victory, and you are left with a below-par run. Of course he was not expected to be back to his best under these conditions. The trouble is his best was assessed at a towering mark of 174.

On Saturday he ran below that by a stone or so. His staunch supporters expect significant improvement, but to expect him to improve to the tune of ten pounds is assuming a lot. The first thing to say here is – just like so-called unlucky losers – that after a run when everything was against them, good horses never improve by the expected amount.

The reason is self-evident to a degree: good horses will try their best in all conditions; therefore, they will drive themselves through and beyond the pain barrier. Like Boxer in Animal Farm or the charger at Sebastopol, doing their level-headed best is all they know. In short, expect Big Buck’s to come on from Saturday, but don’t expect a miracle.

Whichever way you shake the dice, the odds are we have seen the best of Big Buck’s. What he was once capable of belongs in the history books. Aged eleven and given the problems he has experienced, he is most unlikely to roar back to the elevated rating of a horse in the 170’s. So what can we reasonably expect?

Providing he makes the World Hurdle line-up, let’s assume he will find 5lbs or so. He may of course find more, but from a betting point of view 5lbs seems reasonable. That would mean he is 10lbs inferior to when he last won the event. That doesn’t mean he won’t win it, but it makes it a whole lot tougher assignment this time round.

Snapping at his heels are the two mares, Annie Power and the evergreen Quevega, both of whom have alternative targets. As they represent the same stable only one can be expected to take part, but either one would provide a formidable challenge – certainly tougher than either of the two that finished in front of Big Buck’s on Saturday.

As it stands, you wouldn’t back At Fishers Cross to beat Big Buck’s next time at levels but, after his best run of the current campaign, you wouldn’t be knocked over he did.

Add to the mix two possible young pretenders in More Of That and Saphir Du Rheu (unlikely to run but can’t be dismissed just yet) and a supporting cast that have scattered chances of sorts, and The World Hurdle could turn out to be a tough event.

So, currently priced up at 2/1 best, is that value about a horse looking up at the mountain from such a long way below the summit? I suspect it is not. I suspect it factors in too many imponderables, the biggest of which is the horse Big Buck’s once was. As punters we have the option of backing when we think we have unearthed the right sort of bet. It is not obligatory to wager on every event.

Arbitrage betting aside, were I to offer you 4/1 about Big Buck’s (banker’s references required and a minimum of £100 per punter), would you be a taker? Only you can answer that one. But it raises the age-old question – when does a no-bet become a bet? Are all bets solely price-driven? As the theoretical layer, in this instance, I am picking my race with some care. It does not mean I will repeat the offer on the next race. It might appear that I am offering 5/4 about the head-or-tail spin of a coin, but I am only offering it once. Take it leave it. So do you feel lucky punk; well do yah?

Leaving Clint in California, I guess most bets are price-driven. We all come to conclusions and are then liable to be put off when we know the price of our selections.

Coming up with a horse that is 9/4 in a competitive fifteen-runner handicap is enough to deter us betting. We argue, although we expect the horse to win, there have to be easier 9/4 shots to be found than the current selection. Of course the price does not determine the outcome.

Assuming our reasoning is sound, the horse has the same chance of winning the race whether it is 9/4 or 9/1 – often the price it will trade in running if truth be told.

But the longer the price the more likely it is we may have overlooked a salient factor picked up by those that set the odds. Assuming that is not the case, once the bell clangs the horse faces the same task as it did when you came to your independent conclusion.

The problem with allowing prices to determine whether we bet or not is that we are allowing the bookmakers to dictate our betting patterns. Unfortunately, as they set the prices, until the exchange-effect kicks-in late in the day that is largely unavoidable.

Prices are not set in stone. One person’s 5/1 may be another person’s 5/2 – even under exceptional circumstances – 5/4. When all the traders have left the floor, prices are only a reflection of opinion. And opinion will always vary. And as most of us lose more often than we win, the inescapable and slightly depressing conclusion has to be we will be wrong more often than we are right. That is to say events will conspire to make us look wrong even when we are right.

My apologies if I am sounding like Donald Rumsfeld here (there are things we know that we don’t know we know, and things we know that we don’t know etc). The thing we do know about Big Buck’s is that there is a chance (however slim) that he won’t even replicate the Cleeve run.

By racing standards he is long-in-the-tooth and may be forced out of contention either in the race or on the run-up to it. Whilst wishing him all the best (if he were mine I would have to run him), the possibility remains that come the day he may be incapable of flipping back the calendar. The young guns have him in their sights. I wish him well – I hope he wins – but as far as backing him to do so, I will pass.

January Results 2014

January 18th:

Haydock:

Benvolio continued his upward chasing curve and Taquin Du Seuil seemed more at home over the extended trip of 2m 5f (not totally convincing at his fences) when accounting for two pedestrian rivals and O’Faolains Boy (disappointing after Ascot promise), who was never travelling and pulled-up.

The £450,000 purchase from France, Un Temps Pour Tout ran okay in the Grade 2 novice hurdle without underlining his worth. Okay sums him up at present. He looked okay, jumped okay, ran okay, but as Clint Eastwood famously said in The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: That’s a lot of money: we’re gonna’ have to earn it.

Un Temps Pour Tout has a way to go. Zandy Man kept on doggedly to score; the first two clear of Meadowcroft Boy and Newbury winner, Stand To Reason – who will better this in less testing conditions.

Ptit Zig never looked totally at home in the Grade 2 hurdle. After such a good effort last time in the Ladbroke, he was not slick enough over his hurdles to shake off Melodic Rendezvous, who is particularly effective in the soft.

Apparently the winner had pulled a muscle last time behind My Tent Or Yours (nice of them to reveal this two minutes before the off, wouldn’t you say?). Ptit Zig did have to concede 4lbs, which may have made the difference; although it would be surprising if either plays a part in the Champion Hurdle.

In the closing novice hurdle – over the fixed brush – Wuff and the strongly-fancied Straidnahanna came clear. In seizing victory, Wuff overcame intimidation by the runner-up and successfully conceded him 6lbs. He would be of interest in a handicap; whereas a novice hurdle is Straidnahanna’s for the taking.

Ascot Results

A good novice last season, after a couple of lack-lustre run this, Irish Saint returned to his best with an easy win in the Grade 2 handicap. Imperial Leader followed at a respectable distance in second, ahead of a somewhat mulish Bourne.

An unreasonable 17lbs hike in the ratings meant The Skyfarmer was soon in trouble once headed. He did plug on and will make a fine chaser when the time comes.

Sire De Grugy arguably gained his most impressive win when completing a famous Grade 1 treble on the year in the Clarence House Chase. Swinging on the bridle, he cut through the field to take it up two out, at which point it was all over. He jumped well and seems to be getting better all the time.

That said his best form is on right-handed tracks and his overall Cheltenham record is not encouraging for those that fancy his chances in the Champion Chase. However, there is no denying his ability.

Hidden Cyclone is a fair yardstick. He did not help his cause by failing to find a rhythm (pacesetting Kauto Stone took him on throughout) but, although entitled to be beaten by the winner, was comprehensively outpointed.

In the Class 3 novice hurdle, winner Champagne West (carrying a 10lbs penalty) and second Knock House (6lbs penalty) ran pretty much to their form when second and third to Beat That here in November. They came clear of Ceasar Milan, whose form with Deputy Dan helped solidify this event.

January 16th

Meydan Results

It is a little early to draw too many conclusions from events held on the different planet that is Dubai. With the culmination of the Carnival still two months away, so far the usual suspects were prominent. Godolphin had a good night, providing the first three winners. Cat O’Mountain and Haafaguinea provided a one-two for them in the opening handicap. Looking particularly well, the winner did scored with plenty in hand and could do better as this meeting progresses.

The consistent Wedding Ring cut down Magrooma in the UAE 1000 Guineas Trial. To keep the ball rolling Emirates Flyer followed up in the colts’ equivalent, (run in a second faster time) with a slightly unlucky Safety Check in second, again providing Godolphin with a one-two. These two events were probably the equivalent of Listeds here.

Sheikhzayedroad got the breaks and the money in the handicap. Always a tricky character, he was able to make the best of an inside run to account for Aussie Reigns and Star Empire – who looks guaranteed to improve for this.

United Color and Russian Soul (goes well on this Tapeta) came out best in the Dubawi Stakes but it is a little early to start nominating them for anything else.

Zain Shamardal – a winner in Oman last time – got the best of a scramble in the concluding handicap. They did finish in a heap, but Lehaaf – a classy performer in the South Africa and representing Mike De Kock’s yet-to-hit-form stable – ran well enough in fourth to suggest he will come on for this, making him a serious player next time.
January 15th:

Newbury Results

Despite biblical proportions of rain over this current wet spell, amounting to ten inches – the equivalent of half a year’s rainfall – Newbury got away with this.

Dawalan won his second novice event at this course (so far all three runs have been here). Bred to be a force on the Flat, he jumped with ears pricked for much of the way, but appeared to finish very tired on the soft ground.

Once again this was a weak affair. Geraghty held him together, the partnership prevailing without ever looking likely to be overturned. In beating Carry On Sydney and hurdling debutant Prince Khurram, who shaped with promise and is a likely winner next time, this form needs improving upon before he can be considered a viable Cheltenham contender for the Fred Winter – apparently his intended target.

Festive Affair beat two better-touted rivals in Dark Lover and Brick Red in the Class 3 novice chase.

This was his first piece of form on these shores since finishing second in a hunter chase at Cork last April.

Jumping made the difference for him as his nearest pursuer Dark Lover compromised his chances with mistakes. He was closing at the line. Brick Red was only two-and-half lengths away in third so the form stacks up. It is possible Festive Affair was suited by this reduction in trip. A safe jumper, he may win a decent handicap.

It was hard labour for the mares in the novice chase won by Baby Shine. At least all three finished.
RACING NOTEBOOK 2014

January 11th:

Kempton Results

The Class 4 juvenile hurdle was probably not a strong contest but Goodwood Mirage did well to win. Novicey but capable at his hurdles, he moved stylishly into contention in the straight but collided with the runner-up in the air at the second-last (was going to make a mistake in all probability anyway) and then fluffed the last when staging a rally.

Under a vigorous McCoy drive, he got back up in the final strides. He has proved he stays and that he has the right attitude. The runner-up, The Green Ogre, was only moderate on the Flat and showed nothing on his only outing over hurdles. In third, Grey Blue looked short of pace.

The Class 3 novice hurdle looked ordinary enough. After a poor showing last time at Ffos Las, Closing Ceremony gave his opponents every chance here when wandering about and jinking throughout. However, main rival Minella On Line did not jump well enough to take advantage, and although he stayed this three mile trip well enough, that was all he did do. He looks woefully one-paced.

Nicky Henderson provided the first two in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle. Last year’s third, Royal Boy – lightly-raced since including over fences – got up in a tight scrap from the last to defy Josses Hill.

Upazo was ten lengths away in third ahead of some under-performers. Garde La Victoire hurdled scrappily and gave the impression this track was too tight. He still has to prove he is in this league.

The Liquidator, so impressive at Cheltenham, could never put his rivals to the sword here and was only leading under sufferance from some way out.

Captain Chris deserved his win in the Class 1 Listed chase, jumping well throughout. He finished tired with his big weight but was well clear of his rivals at the finish.

So impressive at Sandown last time, Saphir Du Rheu made a mockery of a handicap mark of 145 in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle.

Despite a mistake four out, when he dived through the hurdle, he is all class and cruised to the leaders at the turn before strolling clear. One would think handicaps are off the program in future; but only just turned five, the sky is the limit particularly over this sort of trip.

Recent winners, If In Doubt and Like Minded filled the minors, but essentially this was all about the winner.

In-form duo Lyvius (second to The Skyfarmer last time at Cheltenham) and Deep Trouble (a well documented winner at Sandown despite almost running out) battled out the finish of the Class 3 handicap hurdle, coming clear of Lexi’s Boy.

Warwick: Well beaten last time by More Of That and Salubrious in the Relkeel Hurdle, Glens Melody (30 lengths behind the winner at Cheltenham) paid them both a compliment with her success in the Listed hurdle for fillies and mares.

She got the better of a tight finish with Mischievous Molly (may have been a little unfortunate in running) and Hidden Identity (to whom both the front two were conceding 8lbs).

Corrin Wood kept an unbeaten record over fences intact with a professional and at times spectacular display of jumping in the Class 2 novice chase. This represented his stiffest task to date but he has obviously learned plenty from his earlier outings and is beginning to look a natural.

Black Thunder, also unbeaten over the larger obstacles, tried hard but failed to quite match the winner’s aplomb.

Recent impressive Chepstow scorer Deputy Dan continued his ascendancy with another smooth performance in the Grade 2 hurdle. Although this track was considered sharper than ideal, he galloped on strongly despite landing in a heap over the last.

Main rivals, Killala Quay (pulled up) and Rathvinden (fell three out) did make his task easier by failing to pose threats.

January 1st:

Cheltenham Racing

A wild, wet and windy start to the New Year with the novices in the two-and-a-half Class 3 hurdle returning mad-splattered. Five out of the six had chances at the last. They splashed up the hill and this is form that may not be upheld.

As it stands, Aubusson, who sprang a 33/1 shock at Chepstow, repeated the dose when beating much better fancied rivals. On soft ground with heavy patches, he kept on to hold the exposed Regal Diamond and proven stayer Racing Pulse.

The penalty in these conditions beat Ballyalton, who travelled well but failed to quicken in the conditions from the last.

It would be unreasonable not to mention the victory of Mendip Express in the Class 2 handicap chase run in appalling and barely raceable conditions. Carrying 11st 12lbs and defying a mark of 139 in his first handicap venture, he deserves plenty of credit. He is unbeaten over fences and jumps like an old hand.

With a weight turnaround in his favour, Taquin Du Seuil, who had already beaten Oscar Whisky round this track conceding 5lbs, had every chance of confirming that form in the Class 2 over 2m 5f.

The market got this right as, meeting on levels, Oscar Whisky was the more assured over his fences. Several fences were omitted but Taquin Du Seuil was clumsy on more than one occasion, whereas Oscar Whisky was straight and true throughout. A good jump at the last might have allowed Taquin Du Seuil a real shot, but, despite there being little between them at the finish, Oscar Whisky was always holding the whip hand.

Experience over fences has improved him and it is questionable whether the runner-up will ever beat him on terms similar to this again.

The three mile Class 2 handicap hurdle went to progressive Return Spring, who was second to Sunnyhill Boy here last time. This track suits him.

With an even spread here between chasers on the decline that looked well treated over timber and unexposed hurdlers, on this sort of ground it was always going to be tricky to call. Return Spring was obviously the safe option.

Whispering Gallery ran well for a long way before stamina gave out. He would be interesting off this mark returned to two-and-a-half. The Giant Bolster ran no better over hurdles than he has over fences of late. Burton Port ran a wretched race. Grand Vision faded quickly, as did Poungach.

In the Class 2 over 2m 4f, with a 4lbs advantage with Annie Power since Ascot, Zarkandar was unable to make any more impact on the mare whose winning run now stretches to nine.

Annie Power flicked over her hurdles with the minimum of effort and now presents her connections with a Cheltenham conundrum. The way she finished in these conditions suggests the trip in the World Hurdle would be no problem.

From the same stable as Hurricane Fly, the Champion Hurdle may not be the number one target, but she has the speed to mix it with the principals. The easiest route may be the mares’ hurdle; whichever is her target, she will be hard to ignore.

A crazy day ended with a second bumper win for Modus, who cleared away in the ground. This was a Listed flat race, so one assumes he was not matched against trees. By Motivator out of a Generous mare, he is laced with stamina but could not have been any more impressive.

Jan 2014

SATURDAY JANUARY 25th:

(posted Friday night 10pm)

CHELTENHAM RACING

Billed as Trial Day, this card promises to supply more clues than answers.

Hitting the ground running, the opener, at 12.40, features a field of six credible Triumph Hurdle contenders. That said Vicenzo Mio and Le Rocher look the major players.

Kentucky Hyden appears to have better form in France than shown so far over here, but it is always possible he will improve with two runs under his belt.

Despite only winning a moderate event at Kempton, the classy Goodwood Mirage jumped well in the main, recovering from a collision in mid-air two out and a mistake at the last. He displayed plenty of the right stuff to get up in the last stride and could be capable of stepping up in this better company.

Ballyglasheen will surely struggle to confirm earlier Cheltenham form with Kentucky Hyden, whilst Ronaldinho looked to be running on empty over this trip on his debut at Newbury.

1.15:

Jumping is The Italian Yob’s strong suit and it should continue to stand him in good stead in this handicap.

This oddity of a trip looks ideal for him as he is not devoid of pace.

Dark Lover looks likely to benefit from this step up in trip but his jumping remains novicey – always a concern here. The concession of 10lbs to The Italian Yob threatens to tip the scales against him.

Indian Castle and Samingarry, whilst holding chances, may be better served by an extended trip. Although no cakewalk, this appears to be The Italian Yob’s race to lose.

3.35:

There has to be a question mark hanging over Big Bucks on his return to action in the Cleeve Hurdle. Now eleven, he was last seen in December 2012 when notching his eighteenth straight hurdle win at Newbury. His record is clearly enviable; however his current price assumes plenty and he makes no betting appeal. He would have the measure of these rivals in his heyday, but they are still serious opponents under current circumstances.

On this year’s evidence, At Fishers Cross is hard to fancy, leaving the exposed but consistent Reve De Sivola and the upcoming force that is Boston Bob as the two likeliest dangers.

Reve De Sivola should run to merit, in which case he will expose any chinks in the favourite’s armoury.

Boston Bob returns to hurdles after an unconvincing spell over fences. He has somewhere in the region of 10lbs to find on the principals but receives 4lbs from them which will aid his cause. He is obviously an interesting runner that is hard to discount.

DONCASTER RACING

12.55:

Rock On Ruby requires his potential punters to take another leap of faith on his chasing debut. Admittedly these are comparatively easy fences for a novice, but although this former Champion Hurdle winner lines up with the best hurdle form, it is no given that will be transferred over the larger obstacles.

Unbeaten over fences after two impressive wins, Valdez threatens to present a formidable test. Despite a hike in class Arnaud cannot be overlooked with impunity so whatever they say about Rock On Ruby, at around the even-money mark, backing him looks like attempting to earn money the hard way.

3.15:

There is a long shortlist for this: Unioniste, Kruzhlinin and Night In Milan are seen as the chief protagonists, but others are impossible to overlook. As it stands, sponsors Sky Bet should consider themselves well pleased.

LEOPARDSTOWN RACING

2.50:

Minsk is nominated as a possible in this on the face of what looks to be a fiercely competitive handicap. A chasing mark of 131 gives him a real chance based on his hurdles form. Only six and a runner in the Triumph Hurdle of his year, he was always regarded as a hurdler of considerable potential and his three runs over fences to date suggest he is approaching his peak over this medium.

A close third to the classy Djakadam (runner in the Grade 2 on this card at 2.15) last time, although possibly flattering, means he looks temptingly weighted.

The Italian Yob in the 1.15 at Cheltenham is nominated as the best idea on a tricky day. For those with a few bob to spare, Minsk may prove rewarding at double-figure odds in the 2.50 at Leopardstown.

SATURDAY JANUARY 18th:

(posted Friday 3.30pm)

ASCOT:

2.25:

The angle to adopt here is to take a view one way or another about The Skyfarmer. It is entirely possible he may be different class to today’s rivals but, unlike Saphir Du Rheu who survived a lumpy weight rise last week, the trump card has already been played with The Skyfarmer.

A winner last time at Cheltenham from Lyvius (beat Deep Trouble last week at Kempton), after three unbeaten runs over hurdles, The Skyfarmer has a win-stopping rise of 17lbs to defy against potentially better company.

There is no obvious evidence for improvement available other than what we have seen so far. Despite his obvious potential, a sudden rise to a mark of 140 suggests the handicapper has overacted to the tune of six pounds or so.

As has been said so many times here, it is not the handicapper’s function to penalise horses on a winning streak to the extent they can no longer win. It is his job to assess horses according to what they have achieved rather than second-guess what they might achieve.

For that reason I am inclined to look beyond this highly promising six-year-old. Just as he has plenty on his plate, it threatens to be a similar story for Minella Forfitness, who makes his seasonal reappearance from a mark of 145.

On a day when those attempting to lug big weights are sure to feel the strain, Bourne is the horse that looks attractively weighted. Having shaped like a horse about to run into form on his last two outings, if he is about to strike, this could be the day for this course and distance winner to do so. If able to replicate his run here last February from a mark of 140, Bourne has a real chance from 125 and looks potentially overpriced. Of the rest, lightly-raced Get Back In Line, who unseated in the Gerry Feilden last time, is feared most.

3.35:

This Grade 1 presents Sire De Grugy with a serious chance of supplementing his latest success at this level in the Desert Orchid. Right-handed tracks seem to suit him best. Once again this promises to provide a slog in the ground. If there is a horse to beat him it could be Hidden Cyclone, who ran a cracker in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham and was a decent second at this level at Leopardstown last time.

More is required now but Sire De Grugy apart, this is not a strong contest and he is capable of acting in a bog.

HAYDOCK:

1.30:

Gevrey Chambetin looks an interesting recruit to chasing here. A proficient hurdler (he won over the fixed obstacles at this course in November), if able to transfer hurdles form to these bigger obstacles he ought to cash in on the 7lbs he receives from Taquin Du Seuil.

The presence of O’Faolains Boy – who shaped with plenty of promise at Ascot on his chasing debut – further threatens to make life tough for the penalised Taquin Du Seuil.

2.40:

Ptit Zig put in a massive effort when runner-up from top weight in the Ladbroke. Despite a penalty here, this Group 1 winner in France remains a horse of utmost interest and is definitely the one to beat now.

LINGFIELD:

12.50:

War Of Art showed promise in a maiden over this course last month that in all honesty is sending out mixed messages. According to the market not much was expected on debut so normal improvement could see him in the mix now. That said the draw is off-putting to a degree, but this looks a moderate event and the draw is never so crucial in maidens.

4.15:

Although there is nothing between Masterpaver and Blossom Lane on these revised terms, the filly [Blossom Lane] is taken to come out on top over this extra yardage, which should suit her better. Dutchartcollector is another likely to pull out a bit extra on this first venture over 1m 2f and these two could fight out the finish.

Ascot looks to present the best two betting opportunities.

A chance is taken with Bourne in the 2.25 and with Hidden Cyclone in the 3.35 who promises to offer a similar overpriced opportunity to those looking for value.

Elsewhere, comments are made purely as a guide rather than as a concrete invitation to bet.

Two winners for an in-form SPY today: Saphir Du Rheu and Deputy Dan. The other selection, Minella On Line was second.

SATURDAY JANUARY 11th.

(Posted Friday evening 6pm)

One way or another, it looks like we will be racing this Saturday.

No problems are envisaged at Lingfield, where in the feature event at 2.35 – the Class 2 conditions stakes – it is hard to get away from the obvious in the well-treated Galician and Grey Mirage, both of whom bring recent form to the line-up.

At Warwick in the 3.00, Deputy Dan won in similar conditions last time at Chepstow and carries stable confidence in this Grade 2. He faces serious dangers in Killala Quay and Rathvinden but could represent value.

Kempton promises to provide a top quality card.

Minella On line is taken to score in the 1.00.

A remote third to Deputy Dan at Chepstow, he should not be judged solely on that effort as a mistake in the straight put paid to any chance he had. An earlier third to the useful Josses Hill in a NHF suggests he is better than that Chepstow effort and this step up in trip should be ideal.

His main market rival Closing Ceremony disappointed at Ffos Las last time without any apparent excuse and is possibly best watched at present.

The Grade 1 Tolworth looks a top class renewal and it is hard to discount any runner.

Irish contender Upzao complicates calculations after an impressive win at Fairyhouse last time. Obviously, given his connections, he has to be feared. The Liquidator was impressive at Cheltenham last time and Prince Siegfried looked poised to cause an upset at Ascot before falling at the last. Josses Hill is difficult to assess but won impressively at Newbury.

Although arguably disappointing at Cheltenham when just outpointed by Ballyalton (beaten since), Garde La Victoire had earlier looked more than useful when hammering Gone Too Far at Warwick and it would be premature to rule him out.

The Lanzarote Hurdle looks as competitive as ever. Saphir Du Rheu heads the three that make most appeal.

He looks set to climb the heights over this sort of trip, proving a revelation last time when he routed some useful rivals at Sandown over 2m 6f. A 15lbs rise demands more but is in part offset by Harry Derham’s 5lb allowance. He could easily be destined for better things than handicaps.

Junction Fourteen is another facing a hefty hike after skating up over course and distance on Boxing Day. A 16lbs rise threatens to make matters much thornier here in better compa
ny.

River Maigue was a useful novice last season and made a satisfactory return at Sandown in December behind Deep Trouble, looking as if this step up in trip would suit.

Best ideas on the day are Deputy Dan at Warwick and Minella On Line and Saphir Du Rheu at Kempton.

SATURDAY JANUARY 4th:

LINGFIELD RACING

They have thrown some tricky handicaps our way on this card, so it may be a case of playing safe and looking for the safest options.

12.50:

As those that have run have either shown little or been accorded plenty of chances, only the unraced Swivel is seen as a potential danger to the well-drawn Anglo Irish, who showed plenty of promise on debut at Kempton sixteen days ago. He should be good enough to open his account here.

2.00:

Unlucky last time over course and distance on her handicap debut, Joyous is similarly hard to get away from in the Class 6 handicap. From a plum draw of 5 in a field of twelve, she gets her chance against opponents that are largely on the decline or struggling to regain their best form.

JANUARY 1st 2014

(posted Tues Evening)

So here we go again; a new year, new challenges, new resolutions. Off course 2014 will be different…won’t it?

Here’s hoping you saw in the New Year in style and that you are raring to get on with 2014.

Traditionally, the Cheltenham card sets the year into motion. There is no room for slackers as we start early enough with the Class 3 novice hurdle at 12.10.

It has attracted a useful looking field, although Ballyalton seems to stand out. A narrow winner here last time from the highly regarded Garde La Victoire, it could be argued jockeyship was the deciding factor; but give or take half a length, this still remains strong form. A 7lbs penalty is not prohibitive and he remains very much the one to beat.

Royal Regatta would have to be the equal of Garde La Victorie to win, as would Abusson. That looks unlikely. Racing Pulse looks a stayer (won over 2m 6f last time) whereas Ballyalton has stamina and speed.

After a knotty chase handicap, we are treated to the rematch of Oscar Whisky and Taquin Du Seuil in the 1.20. The latter did beat Oscar Whisky in November in an unsatisfactory event when conceding 5lbs.

Although reasons can be forwarded for the validity of that result, it still gives Taquin Du Seuil the edge, particularly over a more suitable trip. Oscar Whisky did beat Wonderful Charm here last time, but the margin of victory was close and once again he was on the receiving end of weight – getting 8lbs.

Although the outcome is far from certain, early prices indicate Oscar Whisky is a likely morning line favourite. This assumes plenty and Taquin Du Seuil may wind up value. Whilst an unlikely winner last time or now, Close House was in the process of running a big race when falling behind Oscar Whisky last time. But this does have a two-horse look to it, and if pressed, preference is for Taquin Du Seuil.

1.55:

This Class 2 handicap hurdle has been constructed by a humorist. If they are to bet, punters need to take a lot on trust here.

First into the spotlight is the decent Godolphin cast-off, Whispering Gallery, who was capable of running to about 108 on the level. Last seen in February 2013 when winning the second of his spins over timber, he is an intriguing runner and becomes another high profile ex-Flat horse switching codes under John Ferguson’s banner. A mark of 144 does require improvement (not a lot) but, more crucially, he needs to prove he can stay three miles.

Of the two, Return Spring is probably a more solid candidate, although more is required after a valiant second to Sunnyhill Boy here last time.

The Giant Bolster seems to have lost his way and is not inordinately treated on his return to timber in any case. Poungach is another alternating between fences and hurdles and has plenty to do.

Returning after an excellent third to Brindisi Breeze in the Albert Barlett at the Festival in 2012, Grand Vision takes the eye from a handicapping perspective. If fit and well, he would play a part.

Burton Port is another that has excellent claims on his chasing form. Although a ‘nearly’ horse in that sphere – runs behind Long Run (Denham Chase), Synchronised (Gold Cup), and Follow The Flag (Betfred Bowl) when not beaten far having achieved marks varying from 160 – 166, means he is favourably treated now. If you can forgive his three runs this season and judge him on his best form, he is more than capable of causing problems here and is seen as worth an interest at the morning price. Coral seems to have taken a right chance in offering him at 12/1.

2.30:

Double Ross will be justifiably popular to lift the Grade 3 chase after his success here last time This represents a drop in grade; however, you could argue he was a fortunate winner that day with the second and third both victims of misfortunate in running when it mattered. A rise of seven pounds might find him out. His opposition now is motley though, so nominating the one most likely to take advantage is difficult.

3.05:

Annie Power is taken to confirm superiority over Zarkandar on 4lbs worse terms but this is no foregone conclusion and looks like a race best watched.

December Results 2013

RACING NOTEBOOK

Based on races viewed, Spy’s list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

Saturday December 28th:

Newbury Results

In the juvenile hurdle, a strong-travelling Baradari showed he had learned plenty from an undistinguished debut here when twenty-eight lengths behind Calipto at the end of November.

The form from that race is already looking strong; this well-bred French import was beaten too far to directly boost it, but on this evidence could be half-decent.

This time Baradari loomed in the straight and only had to be pushed out to score from moderate opponents. The penalised Cadoudoff did his best under a 10lbs penalty in second. Hurdling debutant Ronaldinho looks the part but his jumping let him down. By Jeremy, the inference could be he failed to get home. It is early days for such a conclusion. If his jumping sharpens-up, he may improve on an easier track and on better ground.

The once-vaunted Mandarin Chase is no longer the race it was. This year, Financial Climate won from a mark of 118 from Faultless Feelings – who jumped impeccably throughout but was unable to quicken on the run-in.

The Grade 1 Challow hurdle was not easy to unravel beforehand as it featured up-and-coming contenders that by and large had been quietly campaigned up to now.

Oscar Rock – behind subsequent Cheltenham winner Ballyalton last time – and Timesremembered – favoured on revised terms with Creepy – headed the market.

It was left to Captain Cutter, a recent Market Rasen winner, to make a successful step up in grade. Dropped out at the rear, stalking the field, he arrived strongly over the last two to pick it up approaching the last. He stayed the trip well to beat Timesremembered and Oscar Rock, whose light went out pretty quickly.

The consistent Whisper gained some well deserved compensation for a couple of narrow defeats in hot handicap company in the Class 2 hurdle. His handicap mark is creeping up, but he seems to be improving with it. Black Thunder, back to hurdles after a soft fall on his chasing debut, did not convince.

Fair play to both McCoy and Stand To Reason for recovering from a near race-ending error at the third-last in the introductory hurdle.

McCoy kept his cool and his mount together, coming back into contention towards the last. Having stepped at the second-last, Wilde Blue Yonder did the same at the last when back in front and apparently all set to win. Whereas McCoy was brilliant on Stand To Reason, Thornton was less so on Wilde Blue Yonder. It was a heavy and sickening fall, and one which may make the horse think twice about the game next time.

Chepstow Results

Deputy Dan drew well clear of his rivals in the maiden hurdle. The winning distance on such a soft surface is often flattering; what it did tell us is that he stays 2m 4f on his head and can gallop all day.

The Grade1 juvenile hurdle was effectively reduced to a field of four (the rag, Arty Campbell having no chance).

Four became three, became two on the run to the last when confirmed mudlark, Le Rocher, made a promising start to his career over here with a hard-fought success.

Kentucky Hyden – said to have thrown his race away at Cheltenham in the paddock last time – made most of the running and went down fighting. Like the winner, the runner-up is proven on heavy ground. Sandown winner Violet Dancer found this company a little too hot.

The slog that was the Welsh National went to Mountainous from Hawkes Point (who may be open to improvement over extreme distances later in the season). The hero was surely top weight Tidal Bay, who has surely advertised possible Grand National claims having run a screamer under the circumstances.

Three came clear in the closing stages of the Lexus, where, head down and giving it his all, Bobs Worth helped turn round the fortune of the Nicky Henderson stable. In cutting back First Lieutenant and Rubi Ball on the run-in, the Gold Cup winner reinstated his position as one of the best chasers around.
December 27th

Kempton Results

Having underperformed at Cheltenham on his British debut behind Ballyglasheen in a race that made only partial sense, Vicenzo Mio strolled home to victory in the Class 3 for juveniles.
He acted very well on ground described as soft to score with ears pricked from a couple of average types in Stephen Hero and Raven’s Tower. French import Astre De La Cour found it all a struggle and was well beaten-off from the home turn.

After chase wins here and at Cheltenham, Dodging Bullets beat his only serious rival, Grandouet in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Chase.

Taken at face value, a ten length defeat of Grandouet reads well, but Grandouet did fold remarkably quickly and it seems fair to say this did not represent a reproduction of his recent Sandown form. Turning for home it seemed as if he was going at least as well as the winner, but the complexion of the race changed in a stride as Grandouet – who is yet to win over fences – virtually sat down.

The ground seems the only reasonable explanation. Dodging Bullets is getting better all the time over the larger obstacles and provided a quick double for the in-form Paul Nicholls stable.

Mickie (odd name for a mare) plodded home despite being out on her feet in the Class 2 handicap hurdle for mares. She successfully conceded fifteen pounds to the runner-up Cannon Fodder and defied a rise of 7lbs for a length- and-half win at Newbury last time.

Hang around long enough and all the greats get beaten some time or another. It happened to Sprinter Sacre in the Desert Orchid after he made a needlessly extravagant leap on the last of the fences on the side of the course before turning onto the far-side.

Two stuffy jumps followed (got in tight) and just as Fago and a chasing Sire De Grugy were getting away, Barry Geraghty (not a man to overreact) called it a day before the next.

Hardly believing his luck, Jamie Moore kicked Sire De Grugy on to beat eleven-year-old Oiseau De Nuit. Although it looked unlikely beforehand, if ever Sire De Grugy was to beat Sprinter Sacre – on this ground, and after a well-publicised setback to the unbeaten and generally acknowledged champion – this was likely to have been the day.

It remains to be seen if we will see Sprinter Sacre in action again, and if we do, whether he will ever be quite the same horse. He did look somewhat sorry for himself afterwards and initial reports suggest he returned with an irregular heartbeat. Great credit must go to Geraghty for acting so swiftly under such difficult circumstances.

As if to emphasise his overall brilliance, Barry Geraghty gave Ma Filleule the ride of a lifetime in the Class 2 handicap chase. It was X-rated stuff in these conditions, but once headed over the last, Geraghty drove the mare back to the front from Valaroso. As a race it is unlikely to be referred to again for any other reason other than as an example of outstanding jockeyship.

At the end of two days of racing that featured more than one perplexing result, Three Kingdoms inched out Vibrato Valtat, who was travelling oh so well for so long in the Class 3 handicap hurdle.

Second to yesterday’s disappointment Vaniteux at Sandown, having gone so close in such a hot handicap, means Vibrato Valtat has advertised form that already looked strong.

December 26th:

Kempton Results

At least they raced, but the ground was soft bordering on heavy. On the face of it with his main rivals underperforming big-style, Vaniteux’s failure to land the Class 2 novice hurdle was disappointing.

Champagne At Tara refused to settle and despite the best efforts of A P McCoy had run his race well before the home straight. Dubai Prince (such an easy winner at Leicester and Group class on the Flat), was snuffed out like the proverbial candle early in the straight.

Vaniteux’s nemesis proved to be the hurdles. He got half of them right but those he got wrong cost him valuable impetus and ground. His failure to negotiate the last properly when staging a rally meant all chance was gone.

Having created such a favourable impression at Sandown, it is premature to write him off. Kempton may not have suited and he is in good hands.

Amore Alato caused something of a shock but he came into this on the upgrade and, although dangerous to take this win at face value, he deserves respect in similar company until he proves otherwise.

In second, Fascino Rustino had been beaten a long way in a good novice event at Newbury that was won by Wilde Blue Yonder. Even so, this represented major improvement. In third, Sgt Reckless had finished behind the winner at Wincanton before winning here next time, so who knows – maybe the form is half-decent.

Loose Chips kept up a strong gallop in the handicap chase, holding on in the face of a furious sprint from Ohio Gold on the run-in that would have prevailed in another couple of strides.

Newcomer to fences, Urbain De Sivola made up a trio that was clear. He has shaped with promise and will not always face such a searching test.

The other chase debutant, Western Warhorse, looked like a crackpot. Charging to post and then getting loose, his withdrawal must have been welcomed by all concerned. Over hurdles at Newbury, his rider had been blamed for making too much use of him when trying to make all over three miles; however, on this showing, he looks his own worst enemy.

The Grade 1 Feltham looked sub-standard beforehand and so it proved. Sent off in front, Annacotty galloped legless rivals into submission. Green Flag plugged on in second. At as Newbury, Third Intention found little from a long way out. The favourite, Just A Par got very tired and eventually finished fourth of five.

As expected, the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle developed into a match between Champion Hurdle pretenders, My Tent Or Yours and The New One. On this sharp track, against a proven stayer that has won over further, conditions ought to have suited My Tent Or Yours better, but the result was tight and a mistake at the last arguably cost The New One dear.

n front from three out, The New One met the last a length in front from his already closing rival. The New One dipped on landing and My Tent Or Yours saw it out to the line. The impression formed at the last was that he was coming to win his race in any case. According to McCoy, the winner needs to improve again, but is getting there all the time.

Neither look outstanding Champion candidates at this stage but they are pretty good. Come Cheltenham in March that may be enough for one of them to prevail.

Silviniaco Conti, the horse that arguably was about to win – or certainly go close – in this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup before falling at the top of the hill, had his big day in the King George.

After finishing only third in the Betfair at Haydock, this was another masterly piece of training from Paul Nicholls. Having been in the first two throughout, when it came to a war of attrition, Silviniaco Conti, who with the exception of the third-last had jumped brilliantly all the way, outstayed a tiring Cue Card.

In trying to make all, Cue Card made a valiant attempt, handling these fences with ease. Having enjoyed an uncontested lead at Haydock, his rivals were alive to the dangers of letting him slip clear a second time. Although harried by the winner all the way, he looked to have burnt him off on the run to the last.

Then his stride shortened and although leaping the last safely, he could offer no more. The Gold Cup trip is likely to find him out.

Despite a couple of minor errors, Al Ferof kept on in atrocious conditions and, although this trip may be at the furthest point of his stamina, he did stay. Two-and-half would be right up his alley.

Stuttering his way round to a degree, Mount Benbulben stayed on for fourth. The big disappointment was Dynaste, who was never in a satisfactory rhythm at any stage and was never going to offer any kind of threat. He jumped sluggishly, getting underneath several fences and was niggled from a long way out. It may have been the ground but this was nowhere near the form he is capable of.

Not everything went according to plan at Leopardstown, the other big venue of the day.

Clondaw Court scrambled home in the maiden hurdle; heavily-backed Analifet pulled up in the juvenile, leaving Guitar Pete to underline the worth of his second to subsequent flop Royal Irish Hussar at Cheltenham. Arkle favourite, Champagne Fever was beaten a total of over fourteen lengths in the Grade 1 novice chase and is another to blow apart preconceptions
Saturday December 21st:

Ascot results

Very soft ground tempers enthusiasm for the results. Easter Day won the four-runner graduation chase nicely enough and will no doubt face a step up in grade next time.

Without Newbury winner Celestial Halo, At Fishers Cross faced an easier task in the Long Walk Hurdle.

Unbeaten over hurdles before blotting his copybook that day, such was the manner of his lackadaisical showing last time, and his worrying error two out, at odds-on punters were reluctant to support him.

Once again, At Fishers Cross jumped tentatively – more like a novice on his first run – reserving his worst mistake for the last when losing his undercarriage and Tony McCoy. He was beaten anyway but does not look right in himself at present.

Revelling in the soft ground, and winning this Grade 1 for the second year in succession, although not foot-perfect himself, Reve De Sivola made all. Salubrious was another to blunder away any chance at the second-last when looking as if he might present a threat. He did recover and stay on for second.

The handicapper seems to have nailed Houblon Des Obeaux to the cross after his win in the United Chase here in November.

However, in a weak Class 1 handicap (Hennessy winner Triolo D’ Alene was a late defector), he was able to dominate, despite picking up four faults at more than one fence. He is most effective on the soft and did put in his best leaps when it mattered. His current mark of 152 is plenty high enough; a revision will surely take future tasks into the mission impossible category.

Cedre Bleu bore down on Houblon Des Obeaux at the last, but when push came to shove was content to take a lead.

On ground that was officially soft bordering on heavy, carrying top weight of 11st 12lbs from a mark of 151, French four-year-old import, Ptit Zig took the honours in the Class 1 Ladbroke when chasing home the bottom weight, Willow Saviour.

We may not see the runner-up in a handicap again, although in any case his trainer considers him more of a future chaser than a hurdler.

As for the winner, he recorded a hat-trick that was initiated at this track in November from a mark of 115, supplemented it at lowly Musselburgh from 121 and today smashed 130 in one of the most competitive handicap hurdles of the season.

Ever-consistent Flaxen Flare was third despite the fact he is handicapped to the hilt. In fourth, Chris Pea Green ran well enough (Chatterbox should have been alongside but surely floundered in the ground – he was never travelling). The complexion of the race was altered to a degree when Recession Proof came down on the far-side, interfering with several runners that were already feeling the strain.

December 20th:

Ascot Results

It didn’t take Nicky Henderson long to get on the score sheet.

Back in action after a pottery round of chasing at Kempton, Royal Boy, third in the Tolworth in January, cruised to victory in the Class 3 over 2m 6f from stable mate Big Hands Harry and Pleasant Company.

Responsible for the first two and the fourth, the Henderson stable is currently flying.

Irving is gradually working his way up the novice ladder. Useful in Germany, he took the Grade 2 but it would have been tight had not Prince Siegfried crashed out at the last when holding every chance.

Volnay de Thaix suffered a rare reversal at present for the Henderson yard when only second (would have finished third). This assignment was much harder than the two he has so far faced (particularly the egg-and-spoon contest he was gifted at Newbury last time).With easy Aintree winner, Splash Of Ginge a close third, this has to be regarded as strong form.

Coming back in trip (2m 3f), Fox Appeal, who was second in November to the smart Wonderful Charm at Wincanton, came clear of a couple of useful opponents in Raya Star and Mr Mole in the Grade 2 chase.
December 18th

Newbury Racing

Apparently unfancied by his stable when only fourth on debut behind Calipto, Actival and Chocala at this track on Hennessy Friday, Dawalan was very much the market order in the Class 4 hurdle this time round.

Very well-bred – related to several high class members of the Aga Khan’s dynasty – Dawalan only had to be shaken up to win in the manner of a stayer rather than a quickener. His jumping was sketchy early but he did warm to the task, although he gave the second-last plenty of air. This was probably not a strong novice event.

In second, Rayak came into this with only routine form. In third, Certification looks a useful recruit (J P Ferguson has several rejects from Mark Johnston, all of whom have acquitted themselves with promise over hurdles). They finished at long intervals, which, on soft ground that became softer as more rain fell, was to become a feature of the day.

Josses Hill became another winner for the Henderson yard when pulling away on the run-in in the Class 4 for older horses. This was his first effort over timber and it augers well for the future.

Communicator was another to please on his hurdling debut. Proven on soft ground on the Flat, he jumped well enough and saw his race out. He should open his account before too long.

In third, having occupied the same position to Wilde Blue Yonder last month, Tiqris lends credence to the worth of the race. A Hare Breath was fourth – it was then twenty-five lengths back to the next finisher.

Hadrian’s Approach, an early causality in the Hennessy, was nursed round by Barry Geraghty to beat three rivals in the Class 2 graduation chase. Jumping may not be the horse’s strong suit, but on a day when the Henderson stable shone, the jockey ought to take his fair share of the credit.

The Henderson/Geraghty combination was narrowly denied a four-timer when Tistory was run out of the Class 4 novice on the run-in by Brother Brian.

December 13th:

Cheltenham Results

Oscar Whisky may have won the Class 2 novice chase but the plaudits have to go to Wonderful Charm, who was conceding 8lbs.

They dominated from the start, pulling well clear of their three rivals although Close House was in touch in third before taking a heavy fall at the top of the hill. With little between the two main protagonists at the last, they jumped it well but the weight sealed it in Oscar Whisky’s favour.

They are two smart chasers in the making, although, both Jewson-bound, Wonderful Charm appeals as the better prospect.

The Skyfarmer racked up his fourth straight win in the Class 3 handicap hurdle – his first venture outside novice company. His present rating of 123 will be adjusted but he looks a decent prospect.

Lyvius tested him in second, the pair well clear of their rivals. Obviously their fates rest with the assessor but they were certainly much better than today’s rivals.

Hennessy third, Theatre Guide looked to have his rivals stone cold for most of the way in the Grade 3 handicap – a lesser contest than Newbury’s showpiece two weeks ago. Only raised 2lbs, he jumped well throughout but the writing was on the wall at the last when he was joined by strong-travelling Monbeg Dude.

Unable to quicken, possibly Theatre Guide needs even further than today’s extended three miles to be seen at his best. Monbeg Dude is no slouch and in receipt of 9lbs, it was no disgrace for him to beat the runner-up.

The winner’s target is the Grand National. Sixteen lengths away in third, Pigeon Island is now racing from a reasonable mark although needs his sights to be lowered.

Sunnyhillboy rolled back the years when benefitting from a vintage McCoy drive in the Class 2 handicap hurdle.

The runs of the Philip Hobbs trained duo, Return Spring and So Fine in second and third, further underlines the cracking current form of the stable.

Garde La Victoire certainly looks the part and his first defeat over hurdles in the Class 3 should not be taken too literally. A steady early gallop was not ideal and although he powered to the front at the turn, Ballyalton ran him down on the sprint to the line.

The runner-up – who still has something to learn – will get two-and-half on his head. We saw two nice novices here, both of whom are likely to return for the Festival.

The run of Cocktails At Dawn, who finished third after a year’s absence, suggests he is a winner in waiting.

December 14th:

Cheltenham Results

Winner of a Ludlow claimer, Ballyglasheen created a shock in the Triumph Hurdle Trial, achieving form that so far did not seem on his radar.

After a searching pace, he joined issue at the last and toughed it out. Despite winning an egg and spoon event at Sandown which told us little, Kentucky Hyden had the best credentials based on three spins on soft ground in France. He tried hard to peg the winner back, but in what became an uphill walk to the line was narrowly thwarted.

Hurdling debutant Commissioned shaped well in third. Lightly raced on the Flat, he hurdled proficiently in the main and should open his account soon. Vicenzo Mio travelled like the winner for a long way but failed to quicken from the last.

It was a case of perm any one of three in the four-horse novice chase. The three principals had met last time with

Shutthefrontdoor seemingly handed the best chance today at revised weights. Sloppy jumping on the last circuit when the pace upped meant he was the first beaten.

That left Sam Winner and penalised Le Bec to scrap it out – Sam Winner emerging the better, opening his fencing account under attritional circumstances.

Eastlake is developing into a reliable and consistent handicapper. Rated 140, he jumped well and stuck on gamely from the last to win the Grade 2 handicap from French Opera and Astracad. Not many in the field appeal as well-handicapped and it could be life will be tough for Eastlake from here on. However, he does have the right attitude and looks ready for a step up in class.

Only a five-year-old, Kings Palace is beginning to look like a horse brimming with promise after an all-the-way beating of his rivals in the Grade 2 over three miles.

Being picky, it is easy to poke holes in the form of his win. With his nearest market rivals, Saint Roque (looked as if this run came too quickly after last week’s Sandown effort and suffered a tired fall at the last), and Milan Bound never able to land a blow, in beating the rank outsider, Masters Hill, the bare reading does the winner no favours.

However, it does not tell the full story. Kings Palace is an accomplished jumper that makes it all look effortless. He could be top class one day either over hurdles or fences – if not both.

Double Ross took the Grade 3 handicap chase on his sixth start over fences. Despite a mistake, he came back to clear away and then appeared to falter on the run-in. Cantlow closed in second (another to recover from a jolting error and arguably unlucky), ahead of Colour Squadron, who was undone by a 7lbs rise since finishing second in the Paddy Power. He is yet to win over fences.

The cream rose to the top in the Grade 2 hurdle, The New One producing the finishing kick when it mattered to defy a gallant Zarkandar, who rallied on the run-in.

The New One only did what the form book suggested he should have done (certainly over two miles) and Zarkandar (better over two-and-a-half) has run to form in second. The winner is now a fair enough favourite for the Champion Hurdle.

Not for the first time, More Of That impressed – this time in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle. With only three rivals, including French Champion Hurdle winner Gemix (hopelessly at sea over these hurdles), once again, his class was obvious. Slipstreaming Salubrious, he picked him up with something to spare. He continues to progress and, like Kings Palace, is another on the day we have yet to see the best of.

Royal Irish Hussar emptied very quickly at Doncaster in the Grade 2 novice hurdle, not looking the same horse we saw last time at Cheltenham. Making the running as usual, the writing was on the wall some way out. Rather than find his second wind, this time he faded away tamely.

Fox Norton, a neck behind Royal Irish Hussar at Market Rasen before the winner of that day began his upward climb to potential stardom, held on narrowly from hurdling debutant Broughton – another ex-Mark Johnston inmate from the Flat that has joined the Ferguson stable and looks to have a future at this game.

Saturday December 7th:

Sandown Results

Vaniteux’ s win over Vibrato Valtat in the novice hurdle represented smart form.

The runner-up, looking all set to collect when popping the last and apparently in command, had previously finished eleven lengths behind Quick Jack in a competitive Cheltenham handicap. However, under a confident ride Vaniteux quickened in the style of a smart recruit on the run-in, winning with plenty in hand. He looks like another powerful addition to the Henderson yard.

Saphir Du Rheu, the only four-year-old in the line-up, routed the opposition in the Class 2 Pertemps qualifier over 2m 6f. With Home Run and Whisper filling the places (although tagged by the handicapper they are useful sorts), this had the makings of a solid event.

The way the winner cruised to the front and then dispensed with his rivals indicates this step up in trip has brought about plenty of improvement. Currently rated 130 – a mark about to become history – he could be a cut above this level and will likely stay three miles.

The Henry VIII Chase, the first of the Grade 1’s, went to experienced novice Hinterland. Second to Captain Conan in this event last year, he maintained his jumping whilst several fiddled away their chances. Ultimately the best hurdler in the field, Grandouet, provided the biggest challenge. A faller on debut, he handled these fences well. Taquin Du Seuil never looked that happy. On this evidence he found the trip too sharp and probably the ground too lively. A mistake on the far-side did not help, but he did not look an Arkle winner today.

After the run of Vibrato Valtat in the opener, Deep Trouble further franked the Quick Jack form with an extraordinary win in the Listed handicap.

Scything through the field in smooth fashion, he apparently had events under control approaching the last until running down the hurdle, drifting right across the track and leaving his rider without irons.

In gathering him together and keeping him going, this was a great effort from Leighton Aspell. Urbain De Sivola posted a promising first run of the season in second ahead of harshly weighted River Maigue, who needs the handicapper to relent somewhat.

Sire De Grugy had his day in the sun when grabbing the Tingle Creek. A slight fluff five out failed to stop him bearing down on his rivals at the Pond fence, after which he was soon in control.

This was probably him at his best at a track that suits. His record at Cheltenham ( where so far he has failed to shine) means, Sprinter Sacre or not, the Champion Chase may not be his race. Somersby ran on after a mistake five out to grab second from Captain Conan.

The last race – a class 2 handicap ambitiously called the London National – provided brutal viewing in one way or another. Won by There’s No Panic, it will go down as the last leg of a five-timer for the Paul Nicholls yard after two important wins at Aintree and three high-profile successes here.

Aintree Results

Dropped in trip to two miles, Splash Of Ginge made all, drawing clear down the straight in the maiden hurdle.

The opposition may not have been that strong (hurdling debutant Gabrial The Great finished very tired in second), but he was an emphatic winner.

The fairly exposed by now Gitane Du Berlais – behind Guitar Pete in Ireland – made the most of a soft opportunity to beat Mystery Drama in the Listed juvenile. Like the first winner, she made all without being seriously challenged. A clever piece of placing, her win pays credit to Royal Irish Hussar (who beat Guitar Pete with some ease at Cheltenham).

Course winner, Unioniste dished it out to more experienced rivals in the Listed chase. Only five, he made one slight error but in the end outstayed Wishfull Thinking.

Being honest, with The Giant Bolster unseating and Katenko, Our Mick and Wayward Prince all misfiring, it is tempting to wonder what the winner actually achieved. However, Unioniste obviously likes it here, stays and jumps pretty well and should be noted if back here fresh in April.
Friday December 6th:

Sandown Results

Lightly-raced on the Flat and easy winner of his only race over timber at Plumpton, Violet Dancer supplemented that success in the Class 3 novice hurdle.

He should not be dismissed in better company as despite a speedy pedigree, he seems to have taken to this game. His trainer – not normally one to claim his geese are swans – speaks highly of him.

Sweet Deal jumped well on his debut until a couple of novicey errors on the back. Always pushed along to get on terms, he finished a tired fourth.

Second to easy Newbury winner Valdez at Exeter, The Italian Yob defied top weight and a mark of 125 in the Class 3 novice handicap. Feature of his win was an accomplished round of jumping – he never put a foot wrong. This asset will stand him in good stead in this sphere.

There may be another day for Royal Guardsman who, although no star, would have finished closer but for a couple of errors (one at the second-last that was bad enough to put him on the floor. He did well to recover and finish fourth). This was only his second attempt over the big obstacles and three miles round a lesser track should suit.

The Grade 2 novice hurdle looked a match between recent Cheltenham winner Saint Roque and impressive Ascot scorer Beat That.

Both were run down by Killala Quay, who was beaten in a tough handicap at Cheltenham last time and took advantage of a last flight blunder by Beat That. He may have won in any case.

Beat That is a lovely looking big son of Milan but he remains weak. It could be we will have to wait until next season for him to show his best. Without the luxury of being able to dictate in this better company, he was not slick or athletic enough when it mattered. He led approaching the last but landed on all fours, dropping back to third but rallying on the run-in.

Saint Roque made the running until headed before the last and on this occasion could only plug on. He looks more of a three mile chaser.

Only three turned out for the Class 1 chase, won by the outsider of the pack, Vino Griego. Despite a mistake two out, he had the pace to dismiss long time leader Rolling Aces, who jumps well enough but lacks a turn of foot.

Any chance Harry Topper had was sacrificed by a sequence of jumping errors.

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I bet £100 a point, so a 5 point each-way bet means I’d be having £500 each way. You don’t have to follow my staking plan  but I believe you’ll maximise your winnings if you do. Likewise when I bet each way you don’t have to do the same. But in the long run I believe you will win more money by following me as closely as possible.

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Spy turns quizmaster

Note from Bob

Spy is a very talented odds compiler, race reader and Professional Gambler who amongst his other sins was paid by one of the major bookies to price up races using his wealth of experience.  And of course the information he picked up doing that was invaluable to help us bet many good winners!

We ‘ve worked together for 25 years with one main common bond.

Which horse will win today at a backable price?

Spy is also an author and loves writing. So while I’m pouring over figures and chatting to other connections on the phone Spy will hopefully entertain you as well as point you  in the right direction form time to time

Bob Rothman[/vc_column_text]

Spy_235x156BACK FOR MORE …

For those of you that recognise the style – I have returned. It was a case of a phone call from out of the blue from Bob, a brief exchange as we brought each other up to date. There were tales of near misses and hard luck and here we are, back in business.

Not that we ever went away. We just drifted apart. Of course, racing continued as it always does; they will be calling out the results when the first bomb drops.

There are harder ways to make a living than backing horses. There is professional boxing, wrestling crocodiles or trying to unravel the secrets of the universe to name but three.

Sometimes, for us so-called betting professionals, racing can seem unbelievably cruel. It is the only business I can think of that can chew and spit out so much wasted working time without return. Worse, add to this the cold rain of it actually costing you money in the event of a losing day (often through no fault of ours – at least according to us), and you have the heartbreaking package that threatens pro-punters with sleeping under bridges at night.

Over the past couple of years, I have come across several ex-professionals claiming to have finished with the business. They have the shell-shocked look of soldiers returning from the trenches. In between howling at the moon or snorting deep into pints of bitter, they claim the game is gone. There are too many handicaps on a Saturday; bookmakers have ruined it with an overkill of fixtures. The Racing Post is unaffordable, let alone RUK – the whole business is hopeless! Yet … hold on, what’s that peeping out of their back pocket? Could it be a racing paper? In truth it’s a bit like the line in that song by the Eagles … you know the one: Hotel California: You can check out but you can never leave. Racing is one of those pursuits. Those that master the rules invariably find it is what they do best. Therefore, whether they like it or not, it is something they stick with.

Right now, sticking with anything is hard. That is the resultant bite of a recession. Everything becomes that bit tougher. Profit margins are trimmed; expenses need to be controlled. There is less time to observe niceties or suffer fools. Deadwood has to be cut away. Success requires more effectiveness and efficiency. A recession sorts out the men from the boys. Of course if you are an energy supplier you can merely put up your prices. If in government, you can start another war or create another department or quango. For those of us on the cutting edge, those for whom there is no such lifeline, it is a case of sink or swim; play or pass; win or lose.

Betting for a living is a fragile pursuit, likely to crumble in a pile of dust at any given moment. It exposes all our weaknesses. The timid remain in the shadows; the bold often fall on their swords.

There are numerous sayings associated with gambling, most shrewd and accurate. None more so than the one that states: you will never win if betting with scared money. If you cannot afford to lose in a business overshadowed by such a grim prospect, you have a problem. You tend to back off; approaching each transaction as if it will be your last should it go wrong. Most gamblers I know right now are muttering Private Fraser words of doom. Recently someone told me how you can always recover lost money but not your confidence. That is so true. Once your confidence is shot – so are you.

I could go on with all this negativity. Somehow, against the current odds, I am still betting and still winning – well, now and then.

These days I tend to lay more horses than I used to. After all, despite all the torpedoes launched in their direction, bookmakers remain afloat by doing just that. Right from the moment a horse leaves the warmth and safety of its box to travel to the races, plenty of things can wrong. It can have a bad road journey – particularly in these clammy conditions – or an equally unfortunate passage in the race itself. Jockeys can make mistakes, the ground can suddenly change or uneven watering can have an adverse effect. By definition, winning is harder than losing. This gives the house an advantage. For the punter, like the felon planning a crime, everything has to go right; the layer only needs one component to go awry and, hard luck story or not, they collect.

Not that I am a poacher turned gamekeeper, but needs must. And I am the first to admit that laying a horse is not as rewarding spiritually as backing a winner. However, I am not the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi or the Dalai Lama. I have a mortgage to fund; a wolf is pacing outside my door. Satisfaction is not a currency I can use.

Lately, I have used all my racing expertise to press the right buttons. Actually, luck has not played a part here. I used to provide the Track Notes to this site and a similar approach has paid dividends. Distinguishing good races from not so good is crucial. It allows one to spot the weak link in any case for an otherwise watertight favourite or to support the argument for the overpriced contender. And here, to an extent, bookmakers become victims of their own greedy system. For in their clamour to create a casino atmosphere in their precious offices, they themselves are at full stretch to keep pace with all that happens and therefore prone to error. Cue the professional punter who, like the big cat in the undergrowth, can bide its time, discarding that which is superfluous and concentrating on its unsuspecting prize.

When betting, to maximise profitability, you need to buy when others sell and sell when others buy. You increase your chances of so doing if you pay attention to what you see and keep notes. I believe Phil Bull once said: Place more emphasis on your eyes and less on your ears. These days, tips are aplenty. But, reflected in the market, they quickly enter the public domain. Invariably they are no longer secrets and in most cases do not represent insider information. I would go one-step further and question how many so-called snippets of information are even that. They are more often only someone’s opinion.

There is nothing wrong with opinion. However, if that opinion is widely known and therefore factored into the market, from a betting viewpoint it loses its appeal.

So Bob and I return with Spy take two. Our ethos remains as it was. It has seen us in good stead thus far. The intention is to start where we left off.

To be fair, between us we had a pretty decent and comprehensive website back in the day. Somehow, it became mist in the ether. It is re-forming after a deep breath.

It is mid-summer (no apologies for that obvious statement). There is plenty of mileage left in the Flat season …

Goodwood starts tomorrow. York follows in August. Over the coming weeks we will see what we can do with what they throw our way.

Goodwood’s card looks tough. Maybe we can start with Producer in the 3.05. Seven furlongs is his trip, whereas likely favourite Aljamaaheer (whom he has already beaten at levels and has to concede weight here) is arguably better over a mile. Both are at their best when the ground is on the fast side, which at the time of writing it is. Hold on … That was two minutes ago. It has turned black outside and the end of the world seems imminent. I am sixty miles from Goodwood, but rain is currently hammering the ground outside my window.

I will leave you with Producer as a maybe. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. If I wait any longer to send this, there may be no column left!

I am not too sure what will follow – possibly a trimmed down version of Track Notes tomorrow evening.

In the meantime, welcome back …

Bob Rothman Client Reviews

A massive £1,392.00.

From: Mr J E P, North Yorkshire,

Dear Bob,

Over the last weeks, since joining you and betting “Level Stakes” have not made the amounts as outlined in your weekly report. This is basically due to the small betting bank I have as a 79 year old pensioner.

However, Saturday results proved to be the best returns I have ever had. I decided to try a “lucky 15” and as all four came good my £2.00 x 15 = £30.00 returned a massive £1,392.00.

The odds of 9/2, 9/2, 3/1 and evens obtained with William Hills did the business.

Can we have some more please!!!

Kindest Regards

P.s Just think what £150 would have done?

Ladbrokes paid for this car but sadly limited the account to "schoolboy" size bets after!
Ladbrokes paid for this car but sadly limited the account to “schoolboy” size bets after!

Results: What Clients Say …

“…the best thing I have ever been involved in…” (G.U Dorset)

Making money from our tipping service is possible with only a small investment – the numbers speak for themselves, and lots of people are making good money from following my advice.

This is your chance to make some real money from what is a simple service. And the best part is, you have absolutely nothing to risk by responding to my invitation today, as you’re fully covered by my no-risk money-back guarantee.

Still not sure? Look at what my clients say and imagine how you would feel if you won more than £300 from your very first investment in our service.

Saturday Dec 6th

A stunning day … a couple of text mesages just in! ….

Hi Bob,

Fabulous day. Even though I missed the each way double on Fabula and Three Ducks I cleared £2069 for the day using your recommendations and also putting several in each way cross doubles (my favourite bookie buster)

I only use £20 each way cross doubles so there is no real damage if they dont work but they pay handsomely when they do!

Regards

Richard


A grand each way between 11/2 and 9/2 then price collapsed.

A £12,000 day, pays for our holiday!

Laurie


What  a day! well done

Laurie


Hi Bob

Got the first leg, made £3,000 then decided not to blow 4 grand on the second leg and settled for a £1,500 win bet. Happy with that! Top Tipping!

Laurie


U da man!

thxx

Moens


I just had to put up this wonderful letter I received from Mat … You can imagine how it made me smile because I love to hear any story about my clients winning money off the greedy bookies! Like all my letters it’s 100% genuine and a copy is kept on file which can be inspected by appointment.

Yes it’s true he joined me on a good week  (halfway through week 25) and it always helps when you start with a flyer and have the bookies money in your pocket from the word go. Maybe he wouldn’t have been so delighted if he’d started during one of our occasional bad weeks so I’m pleased he got off to a good start.

Obviously I always want us to have a winning week but we have to be realistic and appreciate that we don’t always win. But we’ve had more good weeks than bad weeks and clients who stayed with me for the long term have had the opportunity to enjoy some spectacular profits. Over the first 25 weeks we’ve had 20 winning weeks and 5 losing weeks. But every month has shown a profit and to date we are up over £200,000 to £100 per point stakes!

And although Mat hasn’t bet before he’s certainly not inexperienced in the business of life. I discovered after asking him for permission to use his letter that he’s already a successful businessman looking for an extra edge (you can see from his letter he has pretty good marketing skills) so I imagine he can spot a good deal when he sees one!

I hope you enjoy reading his letter as much as I did, sadly  the limitations of the text formatting of this website doesn’t do it justice and it looks even better in its orginal format!

Regards Bob


30th Nov

Bob,

Thanks for reply.

Of course you can use my comments in marketing your service – would expect you to.

I own a couple of small supermarkets and so work the usual 70 hour week – a bit like you by the looks of things.

Always looking for an ‘entreprenerial opportunity’ and this has to be it!!!

Thanks for the info re: stakes – I do have available 1000 points at £20 pt but trying to keep feet on ground is difficult!!

Impatiently want to get to the next tier asap but will probably wait until bank can last a few weeks of losses

You dont know next weeks lotto numbers do you????

Best wishes

Matt


I have over £2000 in the pot now AFTER PLAYING WITH SOMEONE ELSES MONEY FOR A WEEK!!!!!

28th Nov 08

Dear Bob,

I am writing to congratulate you on what has been an amazing first week with your company – and all on a free trial!!

I joined your membership last Thursday with a small bank – only a few hundred pounds in the pot – ‘Just in case’!!!!!

I have never bet before and didn’t even really understand the betting exchanges but after joining a few got the hand of them quite quickly.

I had previously tried two other ‘foolproof’ systems – one that wasn’t worth the money it was printed on, and the other a trial with a computer program that ‘calculates winners’ 50% of the time.  – Of course they do!.

I rang your office on Wed 19th Nov and was met with a confident, clear and well spoken lady called Kerri who explained everything – I was sold by the end of the conversation and so using my FREE TRIAL I joined asap.

BY FRIDAY I WAS IN PROFIT!!!

I have been in profit almost everyday and I only started betting £5 a point.

By Monday 24th Nov I had increased my stake to £10 a point as I had become so confident in your system – I have over £2000 in the pot now AFTER PLAYING WITH SOMEONE ELSES MONEY FOR A WEEK!!!!!

Today Friday 28th Nov has been another cracker, your first tip won easily, so did the second, the third was in a winning position but lost and the fourth won!

ALL ON A FREE TRIAL!!!

Two of my best returns were ISSAQUAH which won a clear £625 and DOCTOR DAVID today cleared £350.

Such is my luck that I even backed SNOOPY LOOPY last sat AGAINST KAUTO STAR and it won at 40-1 although this was pure luck and not a sensible bet!

I like your system for many reasons:

  • It is clear and simple
  • It follows a clear staking plan that anyone can follow and is fully proven over 6 months – the results prove that
  • You certainly have some seriously accurate background on each runner as even the losers ONLY JUST LOSE!!
  • You seem just as excited to win as we are
  • I like the £1 point scheme as it shows confidence in your own service

To summarise:

In depth weekly reports

Super service and support

Spectacular resultsAmazing win/loss ratio

Quietly confident bets placed

Unusually high return

very pleasing trial run

Happy happy happy

Bob one final comment    NO BRAINER

PS Please don’t retire just yet!!!!

Best Wishes

Mat


Letter from a Founder Member

Another wonderful letter received from another  delighted client. Alan is one of the founder members of this Service and by contrast to Mat above the day he joined we didn’t have any winners, ouch!  (we had two placed horses which we bet each way)  … and the next day not a single winner again! double ouch!  (although 4 of the 5 bets were placed and we showed a tiny profit after betting them each way)

Alan was clearly a man with an abundance of stamina and vision and was able to see that the selections were sound … and I’m delighted he’s been a member of the team ever since. The accumulated profit to £100 per point has climbed from £14,862.50 at the end of that week to an astonishing £200,000+ today!

A you read Alans colourful narrative you’ll appreciate that betting Professionally isn’t easy! And when he talks about being in awkward places as a plumber I know exactly what he means having had to crawl under floorboards when helping out my uncle (a builder) whilst  refurbishing this house! It isn’t easy to get back out or answer your phone in a hurry I can tell you! You have to be on call at a moment’s notice and the hardest part of the “job” is often getting on at the best prices!

Sadly todays bookmakers are not lihe bookie of old when men like the original Willam Hill founded the bookmaking firm in 1934  and they would stand bets of £50,000.  I have no idea what the equivalent bet would be today but it’s a huge amnount of money,  probably more like £500,000! … shameful when you discover how hard it can be to get a few thousand on today. Even bets in hundreds can get knocked back when the bookies discover you are shrewd and taking them to the cleaners!


your service …

 far exceeds any other tipping service I’ve used

November 28th 2008

Dear Bob

My comments on your excellent service.

I have been with you since Friday June 13th.  I run your service like a business and probably spend around an hour and a half in the evenings typing all the information of that days racing onto my computer.  I just have four betting accounts at the moment, although I plan to open another one when funds allow and, when my wife whinges about the amount of time I spend in my study, I pacify her with one of those crisp £50 notes the bookies have so generously donated!

I have lost in the region of £20.000 in the last 3 years by joining tipsters and betting and had given up betting for 6 months before your missive arrived in the post and with two weeks free trial and a very reasonable subscription decided to give it a go, as they say.

I work as a plumber and very often find myself grovelling around in a confined space covered in the unmentionable when the phone starts bleeping (I have two phones – one is exclusive for your texts) and I then have to extricate myself as quickly as possible, run down to the van, check the meeting and the time together with the horses number (cos in your haste sometimes all is not as it seems!) and phone the bookies while an astonished home owner is staring at me mesmerised.

One aspect of your service I particularly like is a text after the race saying the horse won or in your parlance – bolted up.  As I am working and not prepared to use a mobile to access the results it brings a smile to my face and makes the day a whole lot more enjoyable.

As to winnings: my wife and I were staying with her brother and his wife down in Cornwall in September.  On the day we drove down, Thursday 11th September you gave out 5 bets, 2 wins and a 2nd and for the 5 days we were there you gave out a further 8 winners, needless to say we were all pretty amazed.  If that wasn’t fortunate enough on Friday 22nd August we drove up to Canterbury for my sister’s wedding.  As far as I was concerned I had taken the weekend off so on that Friday and the day of the wedding Saturday I ignored all texts.  On Sunday when we got home I then checked all the bets I’d ignored – second sight or what?

Best bets?  On Friday 1st August my wife and I were sitting outside a café in the Lanes in Brighton.  I had just been to the scrap metal merchants in Brighton to get rid of all my old scrap copper, brass and copper cylinders (scrap copper on that day was £2500 a ton) I trousered £250.00 and was well pleased.  2 hours later outside the café in warm sunshine drinking a coffee, I was playing with my mobile phone wondering whether it still worked because there had been no bets the previous day.  Suddenly you sent a text through for a 50 point win on War Native.  I jumped out of the seat and ran as fast as I could to the William Hill shop in Duke Street and put the whole lot on at Evens.  I wasn’t so lucky when I phoned Ladbrokes, they had already cut the price.  Later on we visited my stepmother and were deciding on who would go for the fish and chips when you sent a text through saying War Native had won.  PRICELESS.

Brighton again.  1st Sunday in November – The London to Brighton veteran car run.  Driven down in the E-Type (12 MPG!) standing outside a shop while the dear girl was inside (I hate shopping) text message comes through from you Shoreacres @11/4.  Ladbrokes shop was 40 yards away.  £60 e/w came out, phoned Bet 365 and Ladbrokes and had a splendid day.  Checked results at home – SPLENDID day.  It’s moments like this that I remember.  Priceless.

Apart from visiting bookmakers when I’m able and not working all my betting is done over the phone to increase my bank.  I’m not at this stage taking anything out, I just want to increase my betting bank so that every now and again as funds grow, I can increase my stakes.

As far as your service is concerned it far exceeds any other tipping service I’ve used including *****  where the long losing runs are demoralizing.  And therein lies the problem – I have to keep reminding myself that you are a professional gambler NOT a tipster.

I would rate your service 10 out of 10 and my only concern is that the monthly subscription will rise.

Criticism:  Out of your hands – mobile phone masts.  My service provider  for my mobile for the last 7/8 years has been 02.  On joining your service I missed an awful lot of bets so I kept 02 as I’m on contract and obtained a Vodafone sim card.  Unfortunately I work in some pretty obscure locations and often can’t get a signal.  I phoned your office to swap the number from 02 to Vodafone so that I had a dedicated phone for your texts but because of poor coverage in some areas the messages sometimes come through an hour AFTER the race has been run.  Any chance you could send the text to both phones?  I realise that someone would immediately think there’s a dodge and two people are getting the texts for one subscription.  They would be sooooooo wrong.  I’m honest.  Vodafone – the one you send the texts to 07*** ****50

02 – the previous number registered with you 07*** ****12

Well there we have it.  I hope this has answered some if not all of your questions.

Regards

Alan S******

*(note from Bob, I’ve deleted references to other tipping organisations because I don’t think it would be fair  for me to bad mouth my competition, though I appreciate Alan’s comments and know where he’s coming from)

Wednesday 26th Nov 11.04 pm

One of the best parts of my “job” is the feedback I get from clients. Here’s an email I opened this evening from Gary, and thought I’d share with you ( and with Gary’s permission).

It  was completely out of the blue as you’ll realise when reading and simply prompted by his first visit to this site. (Most of my clients joined me years ago after receiving a letter in the post and so never had need to visit the site. In fact this website only went live in June 2008 when we launched the new text betting service.

If you ever wondered whether this is a genuine site then perhaps heres’ your answer. Straight from the “horse ‘s mouth” … it’s from a  regular client who’s been with me since the start of the text service and therefore experienced all the downs as well as the ups!

I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I did. It’s a short but totally genuine email from a genuine client. All of my clients are very important to me and I am delighted when the advice I pass on from our team brings pleasure and profit to your life.


Hi Bob
I have been reading your letters Week 24/25.I realize it’s a lot
more work for you, but I personally thoroughly enjoy reading your
weekly reports in exactly the format that they come in now.


By the way this is the first time I have been on your website and
it makes fascinating reading,it almost seems to be too good to be
true,but as I came on board as one of your founder members I know
it’s all perfectly Genuine.

I am not very confident with my computer skills,but I am getting
there slowly.I can’t find the secure areas where I would need to
use the password yet,or the list of various bookmakers I could
use, but I will keep trying.

By the Way I finally got my bottle of Champagne THANK YOU so
much. I haven’t opened it yet I am waiting for a very special
Family occasion before I do.

Anyway Bob keep up the good work. Thank you for all the hours you
put in, and Thank You for All the horses you have put my way, You
have made a real difference to my Life.

Gary *****


£1,504 Today

Monday 10th Nov 5.04pm

Yes great day.   Made £1504.00 today to £10 per point

regards

Richard


Overall Result £2377.00!

Thursday 23rd Oct  8.35pm. Received this text tonight which made me smile. I love it when clients give the bookies a pasting!

Hi Bob, great result today!

I backed all your recommendations plus one of my own(Gangerman 3.45 at Carlisle) to £10/pt and did 6 £20 cross doubles on 4 horses (First Point, Rublevka Star, The Gangerman, and Dareh)

Overall result £2,377. Thrilled!

Keep up the good work!

Richard

it is possible to win money by betting on horses

Testimonial received Oct 16th

Dear Bob

I agree with your other client who says he now believes it is possible to win money by betting on horses so keep your service going Bob.

I enclose your winnings for week 19,  £149.00

Thanks again Bob

I remain a satisfied client

Phyliss

Testimonial Received October 16th

Totesport weren’t happy with that .. win!

Bob

Thank you for some great winners last week

Totesport weren’t happy with That Dazzling Bergum win!

The next racing bet I tried to put on with them, Magicalmysterytour they limited me to £50 each way!

I managed to sting them later in the day on one of those £500 football singles (Kettering at 7/4!)

Ladbrokes weren’t happy with that last minute winner Bold King – next racing bet on Captain raimus they “referred to the Traders”, although they did take the whole bet.

I got them on Saturday with one of those £150 draw doubles (Bournemouth v Rotherham and Gromsby v Wycombe at 5/2 and 5/2) – returned £1,837!

Glad I did Recession Proof with our friends at Paddy Power as I got paid out at 4/1!

By the way agree with you on the strength of each way betting

regards

Howard

PS Great week on the darts too! £600 on Phil Taylor outright at evens – never in danger!

Golden Saturday

From: Stewart P

Received: Tuesday 11th August

And what a golden day it was indeed, dreams do come true!

Overall winnings of £3,856 (I thought I would put that down early as I do so love looking at that number) proved that my fairy godmother is still alive bless her!

To show just how the fates were looking after me I have to tell you the story of this special Saturday and how luck looked after me. Saturdays have not normally been lucky betting days for me, so much that if it wasn’t for bad luck I wouldn’t have any luck at all!

On this Saturday I had arranged to go with a friend to see a friendly pre season soccer match at Fulham. However, I got up late, was suffering the pathetic affects of a pensioners night out, fell over the cat and took one look at the rain teeming down and decided an afternoon watching the racing might prove expensive but less taxing on one’s patience. As I went to pick up the phone to ring my friend, it rang and it was he to say that he had decided against going to football and he was very sorry to let me down. I of course told him just how unreasonable he was to let me down at this late stage and he replied that all he could do was to pass on a tip to me for a horse running called Multidimensional. A subsequent winner at 2-1 and how I came to include it with our 4 winners to put the icing on the cake later on.

So I switched on Oddschecker, duly followed all Bob’s advices and as I usually do, combined them all in small combinations and a £3 each way accumulator on our 4 and then further combinations on all 5. Sat back and watched the drama unfold without once looking to see how the winnings were accumulating but realising that I could probably afford chips with the fish later that evening. Life was of course so good when I saw the number in my balance box on Bet365 that I had mushy peas as well!

Not only that but it was 2 pints of Courages Best on the way to the chippy! How you must envy the life of a successful pensioner!

Mention of the fact that I am a pensioner, although I don’t tell the ladies that, leads me to tell you just how I made that oh so lucky decision to come in with Bob in the first place. I have been a racing person since my father took me racing (at my Mother’s instructions) in the 1950s. I have had a Tote credit account for over 40 years (often suspended) and a third share in 2 horses, one named Heir of Excitement (which it was) and the other Breaking Hearts (which it did). I have been a member of Cheltenham, Towcester and Windsor and Cartmel where the lovely lady secretary rang me to enquire whether I knew where Cartmel was as it was a long way from Oxford – at the time I was member no. 36! So racing runs in the blood and I have been involved -if that is the word-with many ‘tipsters’ over the years stating off in the 60s with one called Juniorator (his dad having been Seniorator). I also must have funded Raceform over the years as I have been subscribing to their daily handicap sheet for over 30 years. And so Bob’s letter arrives and I must have read it at least 5 times and the sensible person in the house is telling me to bin it. I actually live on my own these days but there are 2 people inside me, the sensible retired accountant who says don’t waste time on betting – put it in a safer investment entities like Northern Rock shares – and the inveterate risk taker who loves the thrill of the chase and has gone through 2 marriages, one lost company and a called mortgage. So it was a Friday and I was kicking myself for missing the first week anyway, off goes the application to Bob. Now I am at the lower end of the £s for points as you might well imagine and Mr Sensible in me has been having kittens when a 25 or even God forbid a 50 point text message comes through and 2 weeks pension goes on a horse. Oh the relief and joy (in that order) when they win! Of course Mr Sensible is a total hypocrite and wants to come with me to celebrate at the pub as well. He has to make do with the third pint.

The first 2 weeks of July I was on holiday in Madeira but joys of joys the text came though and William Hill obliged me every time. There was even a cheque from them on my return. Can’t say the lady I was holiday with was that impressed with my inability to escape the texts on holiday, until that is the champagne started to appear at dinner. She got the point then!

Anyway, enough of this as we have now gone full circle as that lovely number mentioned much earlier conjures up just one word, well 2 actually – another holiday!

So thank you Bob – and not forgetting the hard working staff – for some joyous and financially rewarding few weeks so far culminating in the golden Saturday. Sorry but I have to put that number down again £3,856. Oh joy!

All the best, may the winning weeks continue and ad infinitum (they won’t!) but how great it is to be happy enough to buy a few gallons of petrol with a smile!

Sincerely

The Happy Pensioner

a huge thank you for the great tips, total won to date £1,890

From: Sarah B, Leatherhead

Received: Tuesday 12th August

Hi Bob,

As requested I thought I would update you on my experiences so far.

I started off with very low bets as I have lost money in the past on tips that didn’t live up to their promises. I set myself a budget and gradually increased so I am now up to £5 a point. Still nowhere near your level but I would prefer to stay within my comfort zone and build up gradually, than lose the lot and have to give up.

I work full time so unfortunately I have missed a few bets and often struggle to get the odds you quote, so my winning % has been a bit lower than yours. I also made the big mistake of altering the amount per point or not going EW at the beginning – but the last couple of weeks have followed your tips as closely as I can and it works – slowly but surely building up the profit.

Then came Saturday!! I was at home in the morning so was able to act as soon as I got your texts and managed to get all the odds you quoted! I then had to take my 10 yr old son shopping to get him some clothes for his holiday. We were in a shop trying to negotiate how I was going to match my limited budget to his expensive taste, when I got your text saying Perks had won!!! Problem solved in the bleep of a phone.

By the time your next text came through U had just got home and was desperately trying to get online to check how much I had won. £1,005.40!!! Even taking into account the bulging shopping bags, a very decent days profit – just don’t tell my son how much as he would have spent the lot by the end of the evening!!

So firstly a huge thank you for the great tips, total won to date £1,890. Second thank you for the update text, it certainly made for a less stressful shopping trip

Kind Regards

Sarah

A massive £1,392.00.

From: Mr J E P, North Yorkshire,

Received: Tuesday 11th August

Dear Bob,

Over the last weeks, since joining you and betting “Level Stakes” have not made the amounts as outlined in your weekly report. This is basically due to the small betting bank I have as a 79 year old pensioner.

However, Saturday results proved to be the best returns I have ever had. I decided to try a “lucky 15” and as all four came good my £2.00 x 15 = £30.00 returned a massive £1,392.00.

The odds of 9/2, 9/2, 3/1 and evens obtained with William Hills did the business.

Can we have some more please!!!

Kindest Regards

P.s Just think what £150 would have done?

I GOT MARRIED

From: Mr Robin W, Oxon

Received: Wednesday 13th August

Wonderful Stories

I am sitting a little on the side lines trying to fit a staking plan into my means. But I must say I had a wonderful day on Saturday at the age of 73.

I GOT MARRIED

How about that. So I do just love it when you have a day like Saturday. So will now need to sort out this staking plan, so as to keep my new bride in the manor to which she became accustomed with you advices.

All the best

Hope this makes you smile

Robin

I still made a profit on the day

From: Jacqueline E, Petersfield

Received: Wednesday 13th August

Hi Bob,

You wanted feedback from Saturday:-

As you know I am a small player at present. I got my bet on Perks nice one, missed the other as I was at a gay wedding. Well I couldn’t miss that one, to me it was “Priceless” And I still made a profit on the day. Am I your unluckiest punter?

Best Regards

Jacqueline