Note from Bob

Spy is a very talented odds compiler, race reader and Professional Gambler who amongst his other sins was paid by one of the major bookies to price up races using his wealth of experience.  And of course the information he picked up doing that was invaluable to help us bet many good winners!

We ‘ve worked together for 25 years with one main common bond.

Which horse will win today at a backable price?

Spy is also an author and loves writing. So while I’m pouring over figures and chatting to other connections on the phone Spy will hopefully entertain you as well as point you  in the right direction form time to time

Bob Rothman[/vc_column_text]

BACK FOR MORE …

For those of you that recognise the style – I have returned. It was a case of a phone call from out of the blue from Bob, a brief exchange as we brought each other up to date. There were tales of near misses and hard luck and here we are, back in business.

Not that we ever went away. We just drifted apart. Of course, racing continued as it always does; they will be calling out the results when the first bomb drops.

There are harder ways to make a living than backing horses. There is professional boxing, wrestling crocodiles or trying to unravel the secrets of the universe to name but three.

Sometimes, for us so-called betting professionals, racing can seem unbelievably cruel. It is the only business I can think of that can chew and spit out so much wasted working time without return. Worse, add to this the cold rain of it actually costing you money in the event of a losing day (often through no fault of ours – at least according to us), and you have the heartbreaking package that threatens pro-punters with sleeping under bridges at night.

Over the past couple of years, I have come across several ex-professionals claiming to have finished with the business. They have the shell-shocked look of soldiers returning from the trenches. In between howling at the moon or snorting deep into pints of bitter, they claim the game is gone. There are too many handicaps on a Saturday; bookmakers have ruined it with an overkill of fixtures. The Racing Post is unaffordable, let alone RUK – the whole business is hopeless! Yet … hold on, what’s that peeping out of their back pocket? Could it be a racing paper? In truth it’s a bit like the line in that song by the Eagles … you know the one: Hotel California: You can check out but you can never leave. Racing is one of those pursuits. Those that master the rules invariably find it is what they do best. Therefore, whether they like it or not, it is something they stick with.

Right now, sticking with anything is hard. That is the resultant bite of a recession. Everything becomes that bit tougher. Profit margins are trimmed; expenses need to be controlled. There is less time to observe niceties or suffer fools. Deadwood has to be cut away. Success requires more effectiveness and efficiency. A recession sorts out the men from the boys. Of course if you are an energy supplier you can merely put up your prices. If in government, you can start another war or create another department or quango. For those of us on the cutting edge, those for whom there is no such lifeline, it is a case of sink or swim; play or pass; win or lose.

Betting for a living is a fragile pursuit, likely to crumble in a pile of dust at any given moment. It exposes all our weaknesses. The timid remain in the shadows; the bold often fall on their swords.

There are numerous sayings associated with gambling, most shrewd and accurate. None more so than the one that states: you will never win if betting with scared money. If you cannot afford to lose in a business overshadowed by such a grim prospect, you have a problem. You tend to back off; approaching each transaction as if it will be your last should it go wrong. Most gamblers I know right now are muttering Private Fraser words of doom. Recently someone told me how you can always recover lost money but not your confidence. That is so true. Once your confidence is shot – so are you.

I could go on with all this negativity. Somehow, against the current odds, I am still betting and still winning – well, now and then.

These days I tend to lay more horses than I used to. After all, despite all the torpedoes launched in their direction, bookmakers remain afloat by doing just that. Right from the moment a horse leaves the warmth and safety of its box to travel to the races, plenty of things can wrong. It can have a bad road journey – particularly in these clammy conditions – or an equally unfortunate passage in the race itself. Jockeys can make mistakes, the ground can suddenly change or uneven watering can have an adverse effect. By definition, winning is harder than losing. This gives the house an advantage. For the punter, like the felon planning a crime, everything has to go right; the layer only needs one component to go awry and, hard luck story or not, they collect.

Not that I am a poacher turned gamekeeper, but needs must. And I am the first to admit that laying a horse is not as rewarding spiritually as backing a winner. However, I am not the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi or the Dalai Lama. I have a mortgage to fund; a wolf is pacing outside my door. Satisfaction is not a currency I can use.

Lately, I have used all my racing expertise to press the right buttons. Actually, luck has not played a part here. I used to provide the Track Notes to this site and a similar approach has paid dividends. Distinguishing good races from not so good is crucial. It allows one to spot the weak link in any case for an otherwise watertight favourite or to support the argument for the overpriced contender. And here, to an extent, bookmakers become victims of their own greedy system. For in their clamour to create a casino atmosphere in their precious offices, they themselves are at full stretch to keep pace with all that happens and therefore prone to error. Cue the professional punter who, like the big cat in the undergrowth, can bide its time, discarding that which is superfluous and concentrating on its unsuspecting prize.

When betting, to maximise profitability, you need to buy when others sell and sell when others buy. You increase your chances of so doing if you pay attention to what you see and keep notes. I believe Phil Bull once said: Place more emphasis on your eyes and less on your ears. These days, tips are aplenty. But, reflected in the market, they quickly enter the public domain. Invariably they are no longer secrets and in most cases do not represent insider information. I would go one-step further and question how many so-called snippets of information are even that. They are more often only someone’s opinion.

There is nothing wrong with opinion. However, if that opinion is widely known and therefore factored into the market, from a betting viewpoint it loses its appeal.

So Bob and I return with Spy take two. Our ethos remains as it was. It has seen us in good stead thus far. The intention is to start where we left off.

To be fair, between us we had a pretty decent and comprehensive website back in the day. Somehow, it became mist in the ether. It is re-forming after a deep breath.

It is mid-summer (no apologies for that obvious statement). There is plenty of mileage left in the Flat season …

Goodwood starts tomorrow. York follows in August. Over the coming weeks we will see what we can do with what they throw our way.

Goodwood’s card looks tough. Maybe we can start with Producer in the 3.05. Seven furlongs is his trip, whereas likely favourite Aljamaaheer (whom he has already beaten at levels and has to concede weight here) is arguably better over a mile. Both are at their best when the ground is on the fast side, which at the time of writing it is. Hold on … That was two minutes ago. It has turned black outside and the end of the world seems imminent. I am sixty miles from Goodwood, but rain is currently hammering the ground outside my window.

I will leave you with Producer as a maybe. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. If I wait any longer to send this, there may be no column left!

I am not too sure what will follow – possibly a trimmed down version of Track Notes tomorrow evening.

In the meantime, welcome back …