MEYDAN
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 13TH

If it’s Thursday, it must be Meydan:

2.45:

The card starts with a competitive handicap. Energia Davos injects interest as his third last time to emphatic winner Cat O’Mountain could well provide a pointer to the winner’s future prospects at the Carnival. The form already looks solid, but such was the manner of Cat O’Mountain’s win, he looks booked for more elevated targets. Energia Davos should run his race from his eight draw.

Sanshaawes will be on most short lists after finishing fourth three weeks ago to Gabrial. He may well have posed more of a problem but for sweating badly beforehand and his supporters will hope he is more placid this time round. This race fails to offer much in the way of ammunition for would-be punters.

3.20:

The UAE 2,000 Guineas presents us with a hotchpotch of a field. Godolphin’s ex-Australian duo Long John and Paximadia (preferred in that order) potentially look to be a cut above other Godolphin representatives Safety Check and Emirates Flyer.

With both the Antipodeans reappearing after layoffs, it remains to be seen how ready they are to do themselves justice.

Full Combat will line up fit after a recent spin round this track when behind Emirates Flyer. He may be capable of improving on that, whilst the unexposed Asmar threatens to be an interesting participant along with Yarmouth winner Wenaan, who is now with Mike De Kock and could be anything.

3.55:

Gale Force Ten would be the topical tip here, but jockey bookings and his record since winning at Royal Ascot means he is unlikely to successfully carry his penalty to victory. This valuable handicap revolves round Grade 1 South African winner, Vercingetorix, who is unbeaten after only four runs and if lining up fit looks potentially well-treated.

4.30:

It is a surprise to see that Ballydoyle have parted with Mars – a horse that has always shaped as if he is likely to benefit from further than this trip. By Galileo out of a Danehill mare, pedigree confirms that. Maybe we will see him to better advantage with today’s run under his belt.

Prolific graded South African winner, Variety Club could easily be good enough. These two look the class acts, but with them reappearing after lengthy absences, questions remain.

It’s a good card. At this stage, we could do with a clue or two…

EYE OF THE STORM

Those of a nervous disposition may want to avert their eyes. Right now it is difficult to comment on any events other than those that are happening beneath the interminable grey skies enclosing this little island of ours. Are we really in danger of floating off to sea – or sinking into it?

Nothing can minimise the anguish felt by those victims of the current monsoon. It is a tragedy of monumental proportions. At some point the rain will stop, but the damage it has wreaked will remain and take months and years to remove.

Violation of one’s own house ranks as one of the worst of all nightmares. A house, or dwelling, may only be bricks and mortar, but to those living within, it represents an extension of themselves. Everything from the pictures on the wall to the artefacts they have collected over the years – not to mention the invisible ones known as memories – can be swept away in an instant, never to be recovered.

I know this does not compare to the poverty and desperation we witness elsewhere in the world. Those waterlogged and wellie-squelching residents on the banks of the Thames are not about to be victims of a drought or a hurricane or even a marauding wild animal, but comparisons in misery is pointless. Misery is just that – misery.

Despite an abundance of warning, the current situation seems to have caught the authorities out. In true political style, they have looked skyward as yet more clouds fat with rain rumbled overhead, assuming all that is truly awful cannot last for any length of time.

Unfortunately, Nature works to its own agenda. At last, those in Westminster realise war has been declared. It seems their response as yet is limited. In a lighter vein, their inaction caused me to speculate how short we are of much-needed members of the armed forces. A good number are still marooned in the useless mission that is Afghanistan. I had this vision of an old sweat out there, standing to attention before his C.O., complaining: “Please Sir, don’t post me to Surbiton!”

Joking aside, the marshy plains lapping toward the capital have contrived to present Messrs Cameron and co with their first real test of leadership. Up to now they have had it easy. Pontificating about the high speed train link, culling badgers and paying lip service to gays pales into insignificance in comparison.

Now is the time for action not fancy talk. Nigel Farage has already seized the initiative, suggesting foreign aid cash is diverted to a crisis closer to home – on our doorstep in fact. Obviously this resonates with the rank and file. There may be underlying reasons why we send money to Somali pirates, fantasists in Ethopia and tin-pot dictators in the Heart Of Darkness that is other parts of Africa; it’s just we fail to see what they are.

Similarly, to give hard cash to India – a country close to my heart but that nevertheless has a space program that outstrips ours – seems bonkers. Will they allow us to board their gleaming rockets bound for a new home when this poor planet crashes and burns? A question mark is surely superfluous there.

If only we would learn from what is currently happening in the rest of the world. Nowhere is immune. America, The Philippines, Greenland, Maldives, Seychelles, Bangladesh, Japan, America, Russia and Australia have all felt the impact of the much-disputed effects of global warming.

Those that deny the repercussion of global warming will presumably remove their heads from the sand when the weather improves, which of course it will. But how many more warnings do we as a species need? What will it take before we accept we are making a mess of the third planet from the sun – the one that, by a freak or the sheer law of probability, has unique conditions conducive to life. It would be a travesty if we threw it all away because of apathy. The answer is not to build wind farms or to limit the use of the petrol engine.

The first step is to prevent unnecessary action compounding our problems. Stop idiots burning car tyres in parts of Russia and the Middle East so that toxic black smoke mingles with sweet air. Stop the culling of the rain forests – pay those that have them to keep them. Cut out some of these stupid extreme so-called sports that burn a gallon of petrol a second so that coloured vapour trails can speckle the sky. These and other remedies to our problems might be a start. Of course those that make a living out of burning tyres and screaming through the air in planes or skimming over lakes in jet skis will complain. Tough! We have to start somewhere. Better they complain than we have those dependent on fuel for legitimate purposes, such as getting to work and visiting Tesco and B&Q once a week, squealing.

What am I saying? Nothing will be done. When the interminable rain is shrivelled by the sun’s after burn we will assume normality has returned – until next time that is.
Sorry, as you will have deduced, I am finding it difficult to focus on racing – what there is of it – at present. Give it three more weeks and we will have to turn our attention to Cheltenham and roll out the perennial will-they-or-won’t-they questions. But at this moment the Festival seems a world away.

Horses or not, I did strike a bet recently. I backed Leonardo DiCaprio to win Best Actor at the Oscars. It was the classic situation; I could not resist a massive price. He is an unlikely winner, but his performance in The Wolf On Wall Street was exceptional, meaning he was no 50/1 shot. So I availed myself of a monkey to a tenner, only to find his price is now in single figures.

Funnily enough I thought I could amass a bookie-busting Lucky Fifteen based on a couple of hunches. 12 Years A Slave is tipped to win everything. Maybe; but the competition is stiff this year. As well as The Wolf (Best Actor and Supporting Actor), Gravity (Best Director and Actress Sandra Bullock), The Dallas Buyers Club (Best Actor likely but not 1/10), Captain Philllips and Nebraska are solid contenders – although in a strong year they will struggle to win anything. Two films that as sprawling messes belong on a separate list despite having somehow managed to become nominated for various awards are American Hustle (a wasted opportunity of what could have been a good film and one that only sparks into life for the five minutes when Robert De Niro appears), and the shambolic shouting match that is August: Osage County.

My proposed Lucky Fifteen comprised of selections priced at such long odds, so much so I could not even calculate how much I might have won to a lousy ten pence stake. Last count was somewhere in the region of £40,000. Needless to say, with selections that were associated, bookmakers were not prepared to accept multiple bets. Fair enough, they are unlikely anyway. I was temporarily the victim of the I know-that-can’t-win-but-the-price-is-way-too-big syndrome! Back to the drawing board for me!

And tomorrow is Meydan. At present, having no wish to back horses that slip and slide all over the place and then get beaten a country mile, Meydan occupies the majority of my thought-processes as far as racing is concerned. It is hard to back a winner there. Races are often tactical affairs and sometimes we are forced to guess whether a once decent horse can regain form that would entitle it to win in lesser company. As a rule the answer is, no. But it doesn’t deter me.

They might be going down at Kelso tomorrow, but I shall be in Dubai – in spirit anyway. My comments on the card will be posted shortly, dependent on how elongated Bob’s lunch has been! I doubt they will do you much good, and being honest, I probably won’t even bet. Even so, it keeps my hand in. You never know, I might even winkle out a whomper here if it ever stops raining!

SATURDAY

FEBRUARY 8TH

It’s a case of the usual guess-up when trying to evaluate Saturday’s Lingfield card; whilst we tilt the crystal ball to a different angle when weighing up the Newbury options, where the weather could be the deciding factor.

I live seven miles from Newbury racecourse (they can call it Racecourse Newbury all they like!) and although racing would have been possible today, the forecast for tomorrow is appalling. Onward and upward as they say; since when did we allow the weathermen to have the last word?

1.20:

Although you would expect him to win, Calipto is no good thing in the opener as he has to concede weight-for-age to his rivals. As a four-year-old, he effectively carries a l0lb penalty. With the promising Justification and Seedling to contend with this is no simple task, but should he accomplish it, in a wide open year he would put himself into the Triumph Hurdle reckoning.

2.25:

Although officially the best horse in the line-up, Al Ferof may struggle to confirm that in these conditions. Conversely, from the in-form yard of Venetia Williams, Katenko will relish the ground and comes here after a mighty effort at Haydock in the Peter Marsh. He looks to be hitting his stride after two earlier disappointments this season and has his best chance of grabbing Grade 2 success in this field, where Al Ferof apart, his opponents look sub-standard.

3.35:

If we get this far, Irish Saint does look well-in on his 5lbs penalty after his Ascot rout in similar conditions. A fit and well Montbazon would be a credible alternative if returning in top fettle. Last seen when fourth in the 2012 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle behind Cinders And Ashes, he brings a touch of class to the event. It could be significant that stable jockey Robert Thornton appears to favour him over November course winner Vendor.

Like Montblazon, Vasco Du Ronceray was highly-tried as a juvenile and makes his reappearance here. It would be premature to dismiss Dell ‘Arca who was travelling well when brought down in the Ladbroke.

Warwick Racing

2.20:

A case can be made for Mischievous Milly reversing places with Glens Melody as she did meet with interference last time and has only three-parts of a length to find.

On another conundrum of a day, Katenko is seen as having the best winning chance of those mentioned in Newbury’s 2.25.

MEYDAN THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6th:

The Carnival that is Dubai is beginning to take shape. Although this week’s card is not easy, it may be possible to identify a couple of likely winners and certainly some horses of future interest.

3.15: Alnashmy’s record on an artificial surface, allied to a highly encouraging pipe-opener three weeks ago means he lines up here with just about the best claims. So long as he can utilise the lowest draw of all, he looks the one to beat in this competitive handicap.

4.25: Godolphin look poised to dominate in this listed event where Wedding Ring bids to follow up after a comfortable win on this surface three weeks ago.

However, her main danger, Ihtimal has reportedly thrived since arriving in the desert and is expected to come out the better. Arguably disappointing in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket when given too much to do behind subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Chriselliam, there is already talk of her becoming a major contender at Newmarket in the Guineas. She will need to win here to justify such optimism.

5.05: Last year’s winner Star Empire shaped with plenty of promise when third here three weeks ago to Sheikhzayedroad and all the signs are he has been prepared with this mind. He threatens to be hard to beat. However, dangers abound. Of these, Certerach and Statutory look the most potent.

5.40: This Group 2 is one of the races of the day. Zahee cannot be relied upon to reproduce last week’s running, and even if he does encounters much stronger opposition now.

The Godolphin representatives, Hunter’s Light and African Story will have their supporters as both were effective here last year. Last seen in December in the Hong Kong Vase, Dunaden is a proven class act in this sort of company but the trip (may be short of his best) and an unknown surface makes it hard to be confident. As this is his first run since the Vase, he may improve for the run and other targets could be in sight.

Heavy Metal is one of two potentially interesting runners. He was never put in the race last week over an inadequate seven furlongs and now steps up to a much more suitable distance. The booking of Richard Hughes indicates better is now expected.

Last seen in the Grand Prix de Paris, Battle Of Marengo now returns to action after having finished fourth in last year’s Derby. By Galileo, but out of a speedy Green Desert mare, he always gave the impression that this would be his optimum trip – something his past record indicates. Fitness has to be taken on trust, but despite leaving Aidan O’Brien’s stable he is in good hands and with Dettori booked, could run well on his comeback. The market may be the best guide in a tough contest.

6.15: Narrowly beaten by Gabrial two weeks ago, El Estruendoso should be cherry-ripe in this concluding handicap.

Four for a Lucky Fifteen would be

3.15: Alnashmy
4.25: Ihtimal
5.05: Star Empire
6.15: El Estruendoso.

Best of the Day: Alnashmy.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 1ST:
(updated Friday 3.45pm)

Racing limps into a new month with Sandown planning an all-chase card. However, with the possibility of further rain it is entirely possible racing there may be still be in jeopardy. Even if Sandown goes ahead, it is hard to be confident about backing anything on a cobbled-together program that hangs by a thread.

The main event on the card is the Scilly Isle Novices’ chase, which has cut up to a field of three. Course and distance winner Oscar Whisky will be short to continue a current run over fences. Benvolio looks a bigger danger than Manyriverstocross but lacks the class of Oscar Whisky.

That said backing horses on virtually unraceable ground is never advisable – particularly at short prices.

If Ffos Las goes ahead the feature there is the limited handicap that is the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

One gets the impression the handicapper is frustrated by Saphir Du Rheu, hiking him by a further 13lbs after his impressive victory in the Lanzarote. After finishing third to Saphir Du Rheu at Sandown, Whisper re-opposes on 21lbs better terms for just over nine lengths. On the face of it that should be enough, but such is the improvement shown by Saphir Du Rheu he could easily follow-up.

The 12lbs rise accorded to Mountainous for his head win in the Welsh Grand National from two similarly-rated rivals – split by Tidal Bay – is yet another example of the handicapper’s intransience. As said before, it is not the handicapper’s function to prevent horses from winning; they should merely be rated on what they have achieved.

A 7lbs rise for Mountainous would have seemed adequate at this stage. He faces another slog in the 2.40 and makes no appeal from a betting perspective.

The Lingfield card is the same-old-same-old to a degree.

The 3.30 there may be worth a second look. Three of the field of eight are marginally out of the handicap, but appear to be up against it in any case.

Likely favourite Blue Wave has been hiked up by 10lbs after a dubious win at Southwell last time and now stares a 16lbs rise in the face since winning over course and distance earlier in January. On the face of it he hardly looks well-treated.

It has been a long time between drinks for Mawaakef who last won from this mark in December 2012. He has not run to that form since and his latest third in an amateur riders’ event requires improving upon.

Grendisar is a little more appealing. His latest effort can be disregarded as an attempt at two miles only confirmed (as per his breeding) that he failed to stay. However, he is in a race with the handicapper, who is loading him with weight as a result of his consistency.

In an event where nothing looks particularly well-treated, top weight Swing Alone may have the best chance at the weights. He has reached a plateau from a mark of 90 and from only 3lbs higher here, he should at least be in the mix. There is every indication he will get a trip he has yet to win over, but he ran well enough over a mile-and-a-half in January. His five length beating by String Theory at Wolverhampton in December reads well enough in the light of the winner’s close second at Meydan on Thursday.

So Swing Alone is the best idea on a day that frankly will make more appeal to bookmakers than it does to punters.

We are pulling out of winter and approaching an interesting time of the year.

Cheltenham is just over five weeks away. The Carnival in Dubai continues to turn and how quickly the Flat will start. Then along comes the glitz of the Grand National. It will be Newmarket’s Craven and Classic trials from Newbury and sometimes hidden amongst the chocolate silver paper trail leading to the Easter cards at Kempton. Sometimes you have to be patient…

CHASING THE BIG BUCKS

Right now, what with conditions as they are, seems like the perfect time for a spot of speculation. To be frank, unless like me you are a Meydan fan, there is not a lot else to do.

Saturday’s racing at Cheltenham gave us all food for thought. The biggest question was whether Big Buck’s could still be included on the Cheltenham Festival menu after what was surely a gigantic effort in the Cleeve Hurdle.

After fifteen months absence and a tendon injury, at the age of eleven, Big Buck’s should arguably have been putting Felicity and Rupert through their paces at a riding school.

Yet here he was: back in action in a Grade 2, on ground that was softer than ideal, according to Paul Nicholls short of peak fitness, travelling strongly against serious opposition and for the most part looking like the winner.

Jumping the last in front with ears pricked, it seemed the wand in the sky was about to revive all the old magic. However, not for the first time, the uphill slog changed the complexion of the race. In a cruel twist of fate, Big Buck’s was caught halfway up the run-in, beaten less than a length by both 66/1 shot Knockara Beau and At Fishers Cross.

Although disappointing to the legions that had trouped to Cheltenham, whilst the hats were not twirling in the air, the old boy had covered himself in glory. Giving weight to the two that finished ahead of him and seeing off his main market rivals Reve De Sivola and Boston Bob (both of whom ran poorly it has to be said), his fans left the course muttering that it would all be different is six weeks. Bring on the World Hurdle!

And bring it on indeed they will! Whatever the merit of Saturday’s run (and it was surely considerable both from an equine and human point of view), Big Buck’s will face no shortage of pretenders to his crown come the Festival. His Cleeve run poses several interesting questions.

The first of these has to be: Did the Big Buck’s we saw on Saturday bear any resemblance to the one of old. He certainly looked the same. But as we all know, looking and being are two entirely different entities. First reaction was to feel relief that the horse had survived the ordeal. But when the adrenalin had subsided to be replaced by cold clinical evaluation, the figures on the page made for less heady reading.

Forget the close to miraculous achievement from his trainer to get the horse back on the track and the way Big Buck’s galloped to near victory, and you are left with a below-par run. Of course he was not expected to be back to his best under these conditions. The trouble is his best was assessed at a towering mark of 174.

On Saturday he ran below that by a stone or so. His staunch supporters expect significant improvement, but to expect him to improve to the tune of ten pounds is assuming a lot. The first thing to say here is – just like so-called unlucky losers – that after a run when everything was against them, good horses never improve by the expected amount.

The reason is self-evident to a degree: good horses will try their best in all conditions; therefore, they will drive themselves through and beyond the pain barrier. Like Boxer in Animal Farm or the charger at Sebastopol, doing their level-headed best is all they know. In short, expect Big Buck’s to come on from Saturday, but don’t expect a miracle.

Whichever way you shake the dice, the odds are we have seen the best of Big Buck’s. What he was once capable of belongs in the history books. Aged eleven and given the problems he has experienced, he is most unlikely to roar back to the elevated rating of a horse in the 170’s. So what can we reasonably expect?

Providing he makes the World Hurdle line-up, let’s assume he will find 5lbs or so. He may of course find more, but from a betting point of view 5lbs seems reasonable. That would mean he is 10lbs inferior to when he last won the event. That doesn’t mean he won’t win it, but it makes it a whole lot tougher assignment this time round.

Snapping at his heels are the two mares, Annie Power and the evergreen Quevega, both of whom have alternative targets. As they represent the same stable only one can be expected to take part, but either one would provide a formidable challenge – certainly tougher than either of the two that finished in front of Big Buck’s on Saturday.

As it stands, you wouldn’t back At Fishers Cross to beat Big Buck’s next time at levels but, after his best run of the current campaign, you wouldn’t be knocked over he did.

Add to the mix two possible young pretenders in More Of That and Saphir Du Rheu (unlikely to run but can’t be dismissed just yet) and a supporting cast that have scattered chances of sorts, and The World Hurdle could turn out to be a tough event.

So, currently priced up at 2/1 best, is that value about a horse looking up at the mountain from such a long way below the summit? I suspect it is not. I suspect it factors in too many imponderables, the biggest of which is the horse Big Buck’s once was. As punters we have the option of backing when we think we have unearthed the right sort of bet. It is not obligatory to wager on every event.

Arbitrage betting aside, were I to offer you 4/1 about Big Buck’s (banker’s references required and a minimum of £100 per punter), would you be a taker? Only you can answer that one. But it raises the age-old question – when does a no-bet become a bet? Are all bets solely price-driven? As the theoretical layer, in this instance, I am picking my race with some care. It does not mean I will repeat the offer on the next race. It might appear that I am offering 5/4 about the head-or-tail spin of a coin, but I am only offering it once. Take it leave it. So do you feel lucky punk; well do yah?

Leaving Clint in California, I guess most bets are price-driven. We all come to conclusions and are then liable to be put off when we know the price of our selections.

Coming up with a horse that is 9/4 in a competitive fifteen-runner handicap is enough to deter us betting. We argue, although we expect the horse to win, there have to be easier 9/4 shots to be found than the current selection. Of course the price does not determine the outcome.

Assuming our reasoning is sound, the horse has the same chance of winning the race whether it is 9/4 or 9/1 – often the price it will trade in running if truth be told.

But the longer the price the more likely it is we may have overlooked a salient factor picked up by those that set the odds. Assuming that is not the case, once the bell clangs the horse faces the same task as it did when you came to your independent conclusion.

The problem with allowing prices to determine whether we bet or not is that we are allowing the bookmakers to dictate our betting patterns. Unfortunately, as they set the prices, until the exchange-effect kicks-in late in the day that is largely unavoidable.

Prices are not set in stone. One person’s 5/1 may be another person’s 5/2 – even under exceptional circumstances – 5/4. When all the traders have left the floor, prices are only a reflection of opinion. And opinion will always vary. And as most of us lose more often than we win, the inescapable and slightly depressing conclusion has to be we will be wrong more often than we are right. That is to say events will conspire to make us look wrong even when we are right.

My apologies if I am sounding like Donald Rumsfeld here (there are things we know that we don’t know we know, and things we know that we don’t know etc). The thing we do know about Big Buck’s is that there is a chance (however slim) that he won’t even replicate the Cleeve run.

By racing standards he is long-in-the-tooth and may be forced out of contention either in the race or on the run-up to it. Whilst wishing him all the best (if he were mine I would have to run him), the possibility remains that come the day he may be incapable of flipping back the calendar. The young guns have him in their sights. I wish him well – I hope he wins – but as far as backing him to do so, I will pass.