Free Tips July 2014

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD
– THURSDAY JULY 31st:

2.05: Having valuable experience here when second over this trip in June, on a firm surface that should suit, it could be worth chancing Astronereus, who appears to be on the upgrade. His profile suggests he is improving with each run; although the maiden he won at Newmarket last time was not up to much, he did draw clear and, faced with rivals that are by and large exposed, may reward conservative support at decent odds.

2.35: Despite a penalty, Ivawood is expected to beat a strong field for the Group 2 Richmond. Easily mistaken for a three-year-old, this powerful son of Zebedee can confirm Newmarket form with Jungle Cat and beat several unexposed and apparently useful opponents.

3.10: All signs point to Estimate, who, contaminated feed or not, surely ran the race of her career when only just touched-off by Leading Light in this year’s Ascot Gold Cup – a race that looked of better quality than the renewal she won in 2013. Cavalryman is probably her biggest danger, whilst last year’s winner Brown Panther is another likely to provide plenty of threat.

3.45: Talent has been winner-less since her Oaks victory, but her second to Leading Light over this trip in the St Leger at least matched her Epsom triumph. Lightly-raced this season, she had no hope of winning the Coronation Cup first time out but gave cause for optimism last time in the Lancashire Oaks. Now against her own sex, and over this trip, if she is going to justify the decision to be kept in training as a four-year-old, this is her opportunity to do so. Missunited represents her biggest danger after a cracking effort in the Ascot Gold Cup. Versatile as regards trip, she presents a serious threat, but achieved her third at Ascot by maintaining a strong gallop throughout. This is a different type of test and Talent should have too much of a sting in her tail.

4.20: Often a maiden that features fillies likely to play a part in decent future events, this year looks no exception. Those with form appear promising as do several debutants who look the part on paper.

4.50: Championship faced a stiff task last time when attempting to concede 4lbs to Moohaarib at Doncaster. Only beaten three-quarters of a length, this suggested he was back to the sort of form that saw him win his opening maiden at Newbury last May and then saw him go off as one of the market leaders in the Coventry. It is entirely possible the handicapper has underestimated Secret Hint who, despite being 4lbs out of the weights, is expected to beat more than beat her.

5.25: Looking as if it could be staged at Lingfield, this is hardly an appropriate closer on such a day. Those of us misfortune enough to be behind at such a time in the proceedings are unlikely to readdress that situation in this.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD – WEDNESDAY JULY 29TH:

1.55: The participation of Made In Rio threatens to polarise opinion here as, after such an emphatic win at Ascot on Friday, she could easily be thrown in. However, she has to prove she can stay such an extreme trip, but if she does, she is 10lbs well-in on official figures and only 3lbs higher than on Friday. In her current form she looks a tempting proposition. Those in opposition are no more than average, so Maid In Rio has an excellent chance of following up.

2.30: Lightly-raced Observational is potentially the best horse here, but after a two month absence he may be marginally short of his best. A course winner when taking the Cocked Hat in May on only his third start, a minor injury ensured he was unable to fulfil a Derby engagement. In the long-term that may prove to be a blessing in disguise, although today’s opposition looks testing. Taken at face value, after finishing third in the Eclipse, Somewhat places the best credentials on the line and is preferred to Snow Sky, who was well beaten at the Royal Meeting when behind a staying-on Scotland when both found Eagle Top too good.

3.05: With a finishing kick of speed that proved electric at Ascot, it is hard to see Kingman getting beaten in the Sussex Stakes. Toronado will provide stern opposition but last year’s winner does not look quite up to the standard required to beat the three-year-old.

3.40: With two decent subsequent winners struggling in his wake, a twelve-length rout in a Gowran Park maiden makes Highland Reel hard to oppose in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes. Ahlan Emerati looks best of the home team.

4.15: After a promising debut at Doncaster, Shahah looks best here and should be hard to beat.

4.50: Handicaps for fillies are not the best of betting mediums; with several unexposed sorts that could be better than their handicap marks amongst the field here – notably Patterned, Principle Equation and Water Hole, this is no exception.

5.25: Matters do not get any easier as the day progresses – culminating in a last race that looks next to unsolvable.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD – TUESDAY JULY 29TH:

1.55: Despite the ground turning against him at the eleventh hour, Magic Hurricane still coped with softer conditions than considered ideal when third in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock earlier in the month. Assuming no unexpected rainstorms strike Goodwood, he should have every chance in this opening handicap. Favourably drawn, and unlikely to be inconvenienced by this drop in trip; a pound rise for his last run is hardly prohibitive. With Sea Shanty’s form having taken a dive of late and Stomachion looking fully exposed, Salutation, who enters the reckoning after his latest run at Ascot and is partnered by a capable apprentice who has won on in him, could represent the biggest danger.

2.30: With Beacon looking better and better with each run, it would seem little, if any, improvement will be required for him to add the Group 3 Molecomb to his expanding portfolio. His main danger would appear to be Cotai Glory, but he is unlikely to trouble the son of Paco Boy who so far has shown all the attributes conducive to a horse capable of even better.

3.05: This reduction to seven furlongs may spark rejuvenation in course and distance winner Toormore, but on this year’s evidence his place in the market cannot be fully justified. He did not run badly in the 2000 Guineas, but there was very little encouragement to be gained from his performance in the St James’s Palace. Admittedly, against a couple that look out of their depth and a couple that have two ways of running, he still looks the best horse in the race, but Gregorian and Professor are capable of exposing any weakness in a favourite that comes here with an unconvincing profile.

3.40: Havana Cooler and Van Percy could be the two to take against the field, although the draw threatens to complicate their claims. Both need to recover earlier form. Havana Cooler was not disgraced last time when close up in the Old Newton Cup, but makes more appeal on his excellent third at Ascot in the Duke Of Edinburgh. This step up in trip should play to his strengths. Van Percy was never able to negate a dreadful draw in the Northumberland Plate but had hitherto looked like a horse about to come into his own over a distance of ground. Any support for half-decent Australian import and 2012 Melbourne Cup fourth Kelinni would be significant. Despite a non-staying pedigree, his run behind Green Moon over two miles at Flemington casts aside any stamina doubts and his shrewd trainer is more than capable of laying one out for a race such as this.

4.15: Those that have run look ordinary, making it odds-on that a newcomer will pinch this. Acaster Malbis and the well-bred and well-entered Misleading take the eye on paper, but the market is likely to be a more reliable guide.

4.50: There was a time when Showpiece would have demanded a second look from a mark of 81 in such a contest as this. However, this track is unlikely to play to his strengths (best on flat courses) and his overall record suggests he is regressing. In what is not a strong race in terms of quality, it could pay to side with Lesha.

5.20: Barnet Fair has been kept busy after a promising run at Epsom in the Dash on Derby Day. Second at Ascot on Sunday, he has the assistance of an excellent apprentice and is 2lbs lower than when sixth to Caspain Prince on a similar track. Brighton winner Daylight is another proven on a downhill plunge, whilst last year’s winner, Tidal’s Baby, looks as if he has been groomed with this in mind again, although he may not have the best of the draw. In any event, we all know how hard these races are to call correctly.

SATURDAY JULY 26TH:

Ascot: 1.30: Kodi Bear, Muhaarar and Peacock line up in this competitive and informative listed event with the best form. Having finished third to the impressive Ivawood in the July Stakes, Muhaarar presents us with current form and may come out best of the trio. But the inclusion of promising types Disengo and Diaz means this is not an easy event to call.

2.05: Goldcrest and Muraaqaba are accorded preference over Albany fifth Osaila in what looks a sub-standard Group 3, particularly in comparison with the opening event.

3.15: Royal Ascot casualties Horsted Keynes, Belgian Bill and Ayaar get their chances to atone in an ultra-tough handicap. Fast ground seems essential for Horsted Keynes, Ayaar is less ground dependent, whilst Belgian Bill – who finished full of running in the Hunt Cup – seems the most likely to cope if the rain that hammered down on Friday persists and has an impact.

3.50: And so to one of the great events of mid-summer – the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Providing Ascot is not subject to a furtherance of the monsoon conditions it withstood on Friday, the ground should be just about perfect for a race of this magnitude. The first four in the betting all have something to prove at this level. As a big horse, although not wanting soft ground, Telescope will probably appreciate a forgiving surface. A notoriously indifferent worker at home (behind Arab Spring prior to his demolition job in a below-par Hardwicke), albeit twelve months later than the Derby many thought he might lift, Telescope, a horse that has benefitted from his trainer’s legendary patience, gets his big chance. As a strong, bullish four-year-old, he will be hard to beat but faces his toughest test. After only three runs, Eagle Top comes here as the dark horse. By Pivotal out of Gull Wing, he will appreciate some cut in the ground and looks extremely progressive. His stable has always liked him and the manner of his victory in the King Edward VII Stakes only bolsters that opinion. Despite the presence of the Oaks winner, he is seen as the flag-bearer for the Classic generation. Taghrooda has to overcome a real hoodoo if she is to win. Only two three-year-old fillies have succeeded in this race since its inception in 1951 – both coincidentally trained in France: Dahlia, who went on to win back-to-back events as a four-year-old, and Pawneese. Despite an emphatic win at Epsom that cemented her claims to be a much better than average winner of the Oaks, Taghrooda (the understandable pick of her rider over Eclipse winner Mukhadram) faces a monumental task. Magician completes the short-list. He is likely to improve on his Prince Of Wales second now he returns to a mile-and-a-half. Telescope and Magician are seen as the main two in that order.

FRIDAY JULY 25TH:

Ascot: 2.10: Despite an ever-present unease about her stable, Malabar has sufficient in her favour to punch through any such reservations. By Raven’s Pass – so fast ground will be fine – she lines up on the back of two runs that read well. Second to subsequent nursery winner Savoy Showgirl on debut and then a staying-on fourth in the Albany, she looks like a winner in waiting. This step up to seven furlongs should be ideal and however you dice her chance, with Group form already in the bag, she is hard to oppose.

4.30: There was plenty to like about the run of Elhamme at the Royal Meeting in the Duke of Edinburgh when sixth to Arab Spring and he looks a very interesting participant here, particularly now he reverts to 1m 2f. Having been dropped by 2lbs this looks to present an ideal vehicle for this son of Acclamation, who is fancied to overturn form with Salutation on 5lbs better terms and in a less deep contest. In contrast, Zain Eagle has been raised by 2lbs for what on the face of it looks an excellent run in the John Smith’s Magnet Cup. However, it is worth bearing in mind that not many got into that race. Although indelibly stamped into the form book, it may not be a wholly accurate reflection. Presburg and Double Discount represent credible opposition without looking like horses one should be unduly wary of.

WEDNESDAY JULY 23rd:

After an excellent debut over this course and distance when second to Mustadeem earlier in the month, on looking yesterday I assumed Darshini would be odds-on in the maiden run at Sandown tonight at 7.10. Mustadeem had finished second to the subsequent Superlative winner at Newbury so not only did Darshini take the eye, but he has form claims also. In what should be a two-horse race (it will take a smart newcomer to get a look in), Darshini will line up with better form claims than Azmaam who, although looking promising at Newmarket, has a little to find with the selection.

SATURDAY JULY 19th:

With the Beach Boys surfing the high waves after racing at Newbury, there should be plenty of Good Vibrations once the action is over, although it could be more a case of God Only Knows before the Californian Sound kicks in.
Actually, racegoers often grumble about having to pay extra for entry to the Premier and Grandstand enclosures on days when bands or likewise are due to perform after racing. They claim they are paying for something they have no wish to avail themselves of. It would appear, the likes of Madness, Wet Wet Wet, Tom Jones and Rick Astley fail to stimulate regulars, who argue it should be possible to operate a two-tier system of entry whereby those only interested in the racing can pay as normal and then depart to the usual cubby holes reserved for those in need of a good sulk.
A special purple badge with the word “Curmudgeon” emblazoned on its background should do the trick; although I am not so sure those advocating such a distinction will need the badge. In Victor Meldrew style, I suspect they will stand out in one form or another.
The problem with having two entrance fees is that quite clearly those wishing to see the act on offer and not view the racing will also claim they need special dispensation. They will argue they are paying for an afternoon of racing they have little interest in. This will result in the racecourse becoming the loser. Ultimately the hit to revenue would be too much for them to absorb, resulting in it either being too expensive to stage acts after racing without a major price hike, or for the facility to be phased out altogether. At a time when racing is attempting to reach out beyond its usual parameters, neither scenario can be regarded as desirable.
But, back to the Newbury card for Saturday…
The opening maiden at features a couple with claims. However, they appear to have been flattered in better events. In finishing sixth in the Dante, Saab Almanal was not exactly disgraced next time at Newmarket but was never seen with a realistic chance. He may be better returned to this trip but those banking on that could be clutching at a slender straw. After two promising efforts, Smiling Stranger lines up with a similar profile, having flopped when long odds-on last time at Pontefract. Again, the trip may have been his undoing and if recovering the sort of form that saw him finish behind Criteria at Kempton and Connecticut at this track, he would enter the mix. Both mentioned are by sires that have patchy records with their offspring and look risky betting propositions. Automated, Deuce Again, Skilled and the unraced Long Cross complicate the race further.

The fillies’ handicap at 2.05 threatens to stretch the patience and credulity of punters. On the face of it, after promise at Sandown when not knocked about from this mark, Provenance looks interesting. The appliance of a first-time hood tempers enthusiasm though, whilst Gown may require more give than she can currently expect. The disappointing Jordan Princess needs to bounce back from two lack-lustre runs to enter the reckoning.

2.40: The return of three-time Group 1winner Al Kazeem, who escapes unpenalised in this listed event after an unsuccessful spell at stud, means he is presented with an outstanding theoretical chance. If lining up in good order he threatens to be too classy for his opponents, but he hardly comes here after an ideal preparation. Although he seems to have two ways of running, Triple Threat is decent on his day and is another facing a drop in class. The lightly raced Ballydoyle cast-off Sir Walter Scott is another wild card punters need to pick up or put down at their discretion.

3.15: Having finished fourth in last month’s Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, Music Master lines up with the best single piece of form. Although held by Rocky Ground on Windsor running, it is possible he is improving at a rate of knots. If so, and if capable of replicating that Ascot form, he is clearly the one to beat. Intibaah, Rocky Ground and Naadirr are sprinters with similarly unexposed profiles that cannot be easily overlooked as they could be up to this hike in class.

3.50: Tiggy Wiggy is the class act here but has the weight to go with such a label. Even so the conditions of entrance favour her and she should go well. Haxby is one of only a handful that has a chance on official ratings. As a colt against a filly he is entitled to serious consideration and, in the belief Tiggy Wiggy represents a reliable benchmark, looks value against the Queen Mary runner-up. Pillar Box and Fast Act are two that could easily be better than we have seen so far, whilst at the bottom of the weights, Realtra could be well-treated on the strength of her run in Ireland last time.

Unraced Time Test will not have to be anything other than smart to make a winning debut in the conditions event – another example of trainers failing to support the kind of race they cry out for at every opportunity – and Number One London (an unlikely stayer given his pedigree but proven over marathon trips) combine to become lazy tips in the concluding events. That said they may face harder assignments than it seems at face value.

Newmarket: 1.50: Even with the excellent Cam Hardie claiming a valuable 5lbs, Llanarmon Lad faces a tough ask in the opening handicap. Most of his opponents are unlikely to deliver any rabbits from the hat, but it is possible that a 2lbs rise after all but winning a Sandown handicap last time means Tanseeb has been let in lightly. Beaten a whisker by Sea Shanty (fourth in the Hunt Cup next time) and looking as if this trip has improved him last time, Tanseeb gets his chance here. He certainly makes more appeal than fellow three-year-old Music Theory, who has to concede him seventeen pounds and hardly looks well handicapped.

Inches behind Tarfasha in the Oaks at Epsom when having to negate a high draw, Volume looks overpriced in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh at 5.45. That form threatens to be crucial.

The unpredictable notwithstanding, HAXBY and TANSEEB look potential value bets at Newbury and Newmarket respectively.

SATURDAY July 12th:

Newmarket: 2.40: Promising Gleneagles and Estidhkaar look the two concentrate on in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes. Both have taken two runs to get off the mark and both have won over today’s distance. The deciding factor could be which of the two handle the forecast soft ground the better. On pedigree and given their respective actions, Estidhkaar looks the more likely of the pair to do so. With his Newbury form having been franked by the recent win of the runner-up, he represents a value alternative to the likely Ballydoyle favourite.

3.15: After going close in the Victoria Cup and the Hunt Cup at Ascot, Ayaar is knocking on the door of a big handicap. Lightly-raced and a decent three-year-old last year, although he has only a length in hand of Abseil on Hunt Cup running, the latter pulled too hard at Ascot and could be expected to finish closer over this sharper trip. However, soft ground is not in Abseil’s favour meaning Ayaar should come out on top once again. Unlucky Buckingham Palace runner-up Horsted Keynes looks interesting and if reproducing that run would have to be a serious contender. Once again, there is a doubt about his ability to handle the ground and for that reason, Ayaar is the selection.

3.50: Although respecting the claims of Diamond Jubilee winner Slade Power, as they field a strong contingent, three-year-olds may have the call in the Group 1 July Cup. The drop back in trip looks sure to suit Noozhoh Canarias, who has form on soft and appeared to find the trip beyond him in the 2000 Guineas. He is a very classy recruit to the sprinting ranks and looks poised to go well. He could be the bet for sensible money; but I cannot help but feel there is real value to be had elsewhere. Were it not for tearing off at a nonsense pace in the Diamond Jubilee, Astaire would be nowhere his current price and reunited with a jockey that knows him well, last year’s Middle Park winner (when he beat Hot Streak) can show the sort of form that we know he is capable of. His run in the Duke Of York on the soft from a penalty surely signified he was likely to play a major part in top class sprint events later in the year. Due Diligence’s chance would probably be improved if the ground dried out considerably.

York: 3.30: The highly promising G Force gets a chance to atone for his latest and somewhat unfortunate defeat at Sandown in this listed event. Unpenalised, he should be too good for erstwhile but somewhat exposed opponents

NEWMARKET JULY MEETING – July 11th: Day Two

2.40: Falmouth Stakes: Now 5lbs better off with Integral and Purr Along from the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge at Royal Ascot, with the benefit of that run under her belt – a run that was much needed according to her stable and the evidence of the way she raced – there is every chance Sky Lantern, last year’s runner-up in this, will be in peak condition for a second crack. As befits a Group 1, she faces testing opposition: Integral is in great heart and Rizeena defied the vibes to win the Coronation last time. It is worth recording that Rizeena is nought from four at Newmarket (three of those runs at the Rowley track). It seems for whatever reason her best form up to now has been on flat tracks. She will need to record a personal best and some to win this. On easy ground – getting easier by the hour as we speak – ground she has won on, Sky Lantern is taken to exact revenge on the tough and improving Integral.

NEWMARKET JULY CUP MEETING – Thursday July 9th:

1.40: Bahrain Trophy (Group 3): There is a crossover of form here as those with established form are represented by Queen’s Vase winner Hartnell and King George V Handicap runner-up Windshear, whilst Forever Now spearheads a challenge from those that have posted promise but now take a step up in class. Hartnell was involved in a gladiatorial struggle at Royal Ascot and it is just possible the race may have left its mark. It is also worth bearing in mind he finished distressed when disappointing at Epsom. If on song he sets the standard. Windshear has improved all season in handicaps, putting up a classy effort last time when second from a wide draw to Elite Army.
Forever Now’s second to Wonderstruck over this track makes him interesting. He followed that run with a facile Doncaster win and looks like another progressive type from his powerful stable. He could prove a serious threat to the front two, particularly if they fail to show their best and could be the safest option. As it stands The Corsican and Vent De Force need to improve drastically on anything so far shown, their participation looking to carry a degree of optimism on the part of connections.

2.10: July Stakes (Group 2): As always this is a race jam-packed with potentially useful types. Norfolk flop, The Great War scoped dirty on return to his stable so that run is best dismissed. Having carried a big home reputation that was swept aside in a stride, this is his chance to atone and we are likely to see a different horse now. Edgy in the pre-parade ring at Royal Ascot, his demeanour beforehand will give us a big clue. After beating a hotpot at Goodwood and finishing third in the Coventry, Jungle Cat sets the standard. After promising debuts, Belardo, Ivawood and Ustinov line up looking like decent prospects.

2.40: Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 2): As promised Arab Spring dips his toe in deeper waters after rattling up four wins in progressively better company this season. With no standouts in the opposition, this has the look of a winnable Group 2. Recent work at home means he continues to impress. Apparently impervious to ground, he should be hard to beat.

3.15: This Class 2 handicap seems to have attracted a collection of poorly treated contenders. Providing the expected rain does not alter the ground considerably, Mount Logan has an obvious chance but his hike in the handicap means he has to find plenty. It is the same story with the equally promising Mange All, who should benefit from easy conditions but whose rating of 86 leaves little margin for error.

3.50: Having finished fifth in the Albany to Cursory Glance, Osaila looks to have the best credentials for this maiden. Exceedingly looks the biggest threat.

4.25: Once again Royal Ascot form rises to the fore with Windfast and Zarwaan respectively representing the Jersey and Britannia form. It is also possible Table Rock (behind Zarwaan at Ascot but a winner since) will enter calculations whilst Pretzel is open to further improvement.

5.30: A competitive sprint handicap rings down the curtain on what promises to be an interesting but tricky day from a betting point of view.

SATURDAY JULY 5TH:

Haydock: 3.30: After what was an excellent effort at Royal Ascot last time behind Arab Spring, it is hard to get away from Havana Cooler in the Old Newton Cup. Raised a pound for finishing third to a Group horse in the making on his first appearance of the season, representing a top class yard and handed a plum draw, his chance is inescapable. He looks the sort to poach a major handicap from this present mark, possibly before progressing to better things. By and large this is a competitive enough race but most of the participants are known to the handicapper and few can claim to have been let in by the back door. It is possible Mighty Yar may step up on his latest Newmarket run, in which case, if consolidating his form on the Rowley course, he could pose a threat.

Sandown: 2.05: The arrival of promised rain to freshen the track will boost the prospects of Steps in this Group 3. He has been in the form of his life this year, finishing an unlucky fourth in the Dash at Epsom and then a creditable sixth last time in the Group 1 Kings Stand at Royal Ascot where, with a clearer passage, he would have been placed. To an extent, although genuine enough, he is his own worst enemy, meaning it could be claimed he is not the safest of betting propositions. Not an easy ride (often starts slowly and can become detached before finishing strongly), he has the advantage of Keiren Fallon (who suits him well) and the one draw (an advantage he will probably negate to a degree, but his jockey is a past master at threading his way through fields). A bet for the brave, he will probably need a dollop of fortune but Steps has the ability to win this. A reproduction of his Ascot run would see Stepper Point in the mix and a return to the minimum should suit Shamshon. He has a bit to find, but even so may outrun his price.

2.40: Headed by Baltic Knight, this is a tough handicap. After an unlucky passage at Epsom last time behind Abseil (almost certainly would have been placed at worse) Velox will benefit from overnight or morning rain. If it arrives he could figure and, in advance of Havana Cooler, could initiate a big handicap double for his trainer.

3.15: There is a suspicion we have yet to see the best of Radiator, who ran better than her finishing position suggests in the Coronation Cup last time when only beaten just over three lengths by Rizeena. Ten furlongs might bring out her optimum; but she could easily take this en route to better things.
Narrowly defied at Royal Ascot in the Sandringham when a victim of an injudicious ride, Queen Catrine will be fancied by many to make amends here in the steady hands of Ryan Moore. Good run though that was it has to be said it does not quite equal that put up by Radiator, who looks primed to launch her season in style. Any rain will not inconvenience her.

3.50: In the first real clash of the generations the Coral Eclipse would be simple enough to evaluate if we knew for sure how the ground is likely to ride. As it stands, The Fugue is the obvious choice with Verrazano appealing as the biggest danger. A winner of two Grade One events in America over 1m 1f, this trip should suit the imposing Verrazano who is the interesting contender but his best form is on a fast surface. A ground-changing downpour could alter everything and would obviously bring Kingston Hill into the reckoning. With the addition of Guineas winner Night Of Thunder, this promises to be an intriguing contest but one that is difficult to call at present.

4.25: Assuming the ground eases, Whiplash Willie – whom connections have been patient with – gets his chance to add to a Salisbury success this term and an excellent third in the Henry II Stakes over this course in May. Serial monkey Repeater took an oft-rare interest in proceedings last Saturday in the Northumberland Plate when making up a great deal of ground from the rear and has the right man on top to generate further enthusiasm. Striking while the iron is hot, he is not ground-dependent and can put up a bold show.

SANDOWN FRIDAY JULY 4TH

2.00: This may turn out to be one of the harder races on what otherwise appeals as a punter-friendly card. The short-list from this quarter consists of Normal Equilibrium, last year’s winner Doctor Parkes and New Fforest. Of this trio New Fforest is best drawn and after two runs this season should be approaching her peak. She is given narrow preference on fast ground she has shown she can handle. Course specialist Tagula Night looks better with some juice.

2.30: Although the Norfolk at Royal Ascot turned into a nonsense of a contest as a result of the blistering early pace set by Mukhmal, Snap Shots, who was three lengths in front of the tiring trailblazer, is taken to confirm placings. Beacon’s two wins to date suggest he has more to find against stiffer opposition.

3.00: After promise in two maidens at Newbury and a narrow defeat over this trip last time, it should be third time lucky for Mustadeem now. Tom Hark shaped well at Kempton but, despite finishing fourth to a useful sort, was beaten a fair way and this looks a tougher assignment. New Brunswick could be best of the newcomers but the experience gained by Mustadeem should be crucial.

3.35: Having been denied the rub of the green since winning at Meydan in January (desperately unlucky in the Winter Derby), Windhoek gets the perfect chance to recover the thread now returned to his best trip. A tough and durable sort, his main danger, Educate, has a bit to find with the selection on a line through Robin Hood’s Bay and in any event will need to be at his best after an absence of three months.

4.10: After a major effort at Epsom when raised in class, connections have been patient with the progressive Air Pilot and that attitude can pay off in this Class 3 handicap. Although he may not want rattling fast ground, it can be inferred this is a hand-picked target. Vital Evidence should overturn form with Chain Of Events from last time and is seen as the chief danger.

4.45: A step up in trip looks ideal for the stoutly-bred Economy who has shaped with plenty of promise so far. By Dalakhini out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, it is possible this ground may ride on the fast side; therefore delaying betting tactics are advised until it can be assessed how he goes to post. If the surface looks okay, he threatens to prove too good for these rivals.