SATURDAY September 12th:

With the Met Office at their most pessimistic, rain, even storms, threaten to have the last word on an otherwise quality day’s racing. With any luck dire conditions will not surface until the last tickets have been ripped up and the boards wiped clean. However, that cannot be relied upon. Things could turn messy on the track and off.
Leopardstown stages the Irish Champion Stakes, which promises to provide a cracking renewal, but it could easily be blighted by the weather. If he takes part – and options for him are shrinking at this comparatively late stage of the season – Golden Horn gets the chance to set the record straight after a largely unfathomable defeat by Arabian Queen in the Juddmonte. A line through last year’s victor, The Grey Gatsby, gives Free Eagle something to find with Golden Horn, but improvement from the lightly-raced Free Eagle should not be discounted. He also looks more likely to cope with rain-softened ground than Golden Horn and Gleneagles. Like many of today’s features it promises to be a fascinating race to watch, but one where the result is hard to predict. Although why the authorities allow the Irish Champion and the St Leger to clash requires some explaining. However, we can only juggle with what is put before us, and no one is forcing us to bet.

DONCASTER: 2.00: The day starts with a strongly fancied Godolphin runner bidding to catapult himself into Classic reckoning for next year. Emotionless created a major impression on debut and takes a leap in class now to contest the Group 2 Champagne Stakes. That said, this year’s race has fallen apart to an extent and, although it is asking a lot from a once-raced maiden winner to step up to this level in one stride, word suggests he should get away with it. Those he takes on do not look genuine Group 2 performers so the highly-touted son of Shamardal remains the selection. It seems bookmakers are well aware of the regard in which he is held and have priced him accordingly. As we don’t know he will act on a softer surface, changing ground would be a concern.

3.10: The chances of Limato will depend on the ground and his ability to see out an extra furlong. Progressive and genuine Safety Check and what looks like a revitalised Ivawood look less complicated alternatives. Ivawood represents class; Safety Check has a solid profile that is hard to knock.

3.45: It seems Ballydoyle is undecided as to which is their strongest representative in this year’s St Leger. Again, the ground looks sure to play a major part. Said to be on the upgrade, Bondi Beach seems their preference if conditions remain as they are. There was little between him and Storm The Stars last time so once again it might be tight unless forked lightning intervenes. Having fallen from favour in the market mid-week, anticipating easy ground, Order Of St George has regained a prominent position and is currently disputing second favouritism with his stable companion. The three at the head of the market seem closely matched – Fields Of Athenry looking the only other serious contender. Nominating a bet for this at present would seem unwise.

DONCASTER September 11th:

Good racing at the Yorkshire track, but it’s tricky to decipher with only Gutaifan looking like a solid betting prospect:
1.55: It is hard to look beyond Prix Robert Papin winner Gutaifan here. Unpenalised for that Group 2 success and subsequently second to probably the best two-year-old seen so far in Shalaa in the Group 1 Prix Morny, his chance is obvious and he ought to win.

2.30: Squeezed out of the Ebor (his target for the season) by his rating, Battersea gets a chance at compensation now in a tight handicap. This is a race he can win, but fast ground is the key and rain is forecast for the area (expected later), so it might pay prospective punters to wait until race time. It is not hard to identify plenty of dangers.

DONCASTER September 10th

1.55: Thought of as a Group filly before she raced, three runs on and Kempton maiden winner Nemoralia has a way to go to justify the hype. An imposing sort it is entirely possible she has needed time to grow into her frame. It is equally possible, judging by her pedigree and the way she floated over the surface at the Sunbury track, that she is a filly that will shine on an artificial surface. A mark of 90 may look generous with the aid of hindsight; however, for now, on what she has achieved it looks about right. She is likely to attract market support and may be too good for what looks average opposition. Unexposed Alpine Dream is the one to fear most.

2.30: It remains to be seen whether Lucky Kristale will be as effective over seven as she has been since being dropped back to six. The trip is clearly ideal for Fadhayyil who, after a decent attempt in the Guineas before running out of petrol, and her latest win and her second in the Jersey, lines up with the best form on offer. Mistrusting is very much on the upgrade but faces her stiffest test so far, whilst the dark horse is autumn winner from last year Lady Correspondent who blew up on her solitary start of this season in the Nell Gwyn but still showed enough to warrant respect now.

3.05: We know Hidden Gold will be staying on at the end here and suspect Koora will improve for the extra yardage. They could easily emerge as the principals.

3.40: It could be a case of playing it again Sam with course winner Humphrey Bogart here as he looks to be reasonably treated by race conditions. Not disgraced when fourth to the useful Recorder last time, he hails from a yard that traditionally mop up in these kind of events. This looks a shrewd piece of placing as he receives weight from sixteen of the intended twenty two runners and arguably lines up with the best form.

DONCASTER September 9th

2.00: Although he would not have beaten Tasleet in a valuable sales event last time at York, Ferryover was slightly unfortunate in running as the breaks failed to materialise. Whichever way you shake it that remains strong form and may be enough to allow this son of Pastoral Pursuits (for whom easy ground would be a bonus but is not guaranteed) to gain compensation. Unexposed and well entered up Tidal Wave could represent the biggest threat and looks an interesting betting prospect in his first venture in a handicap. He does hold Group 1 entries and could easily be a cut above these. Consistent Carrington makes up the trio to concentrate on.

2.30: Venturous looked like a colt with a future based on his win at Newmarket last month, and he is taken to build on that now. A loose line through Arithmetic gives him the edge over Newbury scorer Storm Rising, whilst form horse Elronaq returns to action after making little impact in the Richmond at Goodwood and will again be tested against this opposition.

3.00: With the old boys being wheeled out once more in this sprint it would be nice to find a confident alternative to Kingsgate Native and Medicean Man. However the opposition is hardly bombproof. Cotai Glory is a precarious proposition as is the frustrating Steps. Either could win if the wind is blowing in the right direction, whilst the uncomplicated Monsieur Joe should run his race and is the each-way selection.

4.10: Word has it that Akeed Champion is finally on the verge of realising the promise he showed as a juvenile. Winner of his last two starts (dossed last time and value for considerably more than the bare win), he remains well-treated from a mark of 84 and is fancied to register the hat-trick.

YORK August 22nd:

 

In what is a tough culmination to the Ebor meeting, Buratino will be pressed to concede his penalty to promising rivals in the Gimcrack at 3.10. Having finished a cracking second in the Group 2 Robert Papin last time, Ajaya is one of several with a serious chance. Steady Pace represents the solid Shalaa/Tasleet form; whilst there are reasons to believe King Of Rooks is better than his last two runs. A return to this trip may suit and he looks a value bet.

3.45: Irish horses dominate the betting for the Ebor: it’s a case of the usual suspects in Messrs Mullins, Martin and O’Brien. Despite the fact that Frankie Dettori has jumped ship, Arabian Comet could go well. Second at this meeting last year in the Galtres, she comes to hand at this time of year, represents a stable that could hardly be in better form and although the handicapper has hardly erred on the side of generosity, she is fairly treated over a trip that will suit. Obviously Dettori prefers the chance of Clondaw Warrior.

YORK August 21st:

2.30: It was no surprise that Tac De Boistron failed to land a blow in the Ascot Gold Cup as the ground was all against him. Therefore that run is best disregarded. Back on a more favourable surface now, and seven pounds better off with Clever Cookie for their running at Chester in May, he has a clear chance of recovering the winning thread. A decent performer on his day (has won the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak twice but escapes a penalty), a return to his best form means he can go very close. He looks the value alternative to the market leaders who are otherwise hard to split.

3.40: This all depends on the monster that is Acapulco. The juvenile filly won a strong Queen Mary with a great deal of authority, but against her elders this is a somewhat different assignment. Arguably drawn on the wrong side of the track, she is favourite to take advantage of the weight she receives and cannot be opposed lightly. Long on numbers but short in quality, punters of the favourite may go loco after the race but Muthmir looks a bet for nothing each-way.

YORK August 20th:

1.55: After his second to the smart Shalaa in the Richmond, Tasleet appears to face a drop in the grade in this opening sales race. However, Shalaa beat him comprehensively at Goodwood so Tasleet will need to improve again to justify cramped odds. A concession of 5lbs to the classy Excessable may find him out. Excessable tries a sixth furlong for the first time (should not be an inconvenience) and comes here after racing on the wrong side in the Wetherby’s Sprint at Newbury when only three lengths adrift. Before that he was beaten only a head at Beverley in a richly endowed event by a subsequent winner to whom he was attempting to concede a stone. That form is solid and Excessable looks overpriced for this.

2.30: Lumiere created a big impression when winning at Newmarket on debut; but although she undoubtedly has ability she beat little and this represents an altogether different test against proven opponents. After a couple of efforts in top class, Besharah, who handled ease in the ground at Ascot like a filly that relished it, looks a ready alternative.

3.05: As always handicaps here are tough to win. On this easier ground, despite his years, having been given a chance by the handicapper, Penitent may run better than his double-figure price (25/1 at the time of writing) implies.

3.40: With little more than a cigarette paper between the principals in the Yorkshire Oaks it could be a case of perm any one of five. Covert Love goes into the event with the best profile, but unbeaten this season since May, there has to be a question mark about her being able to sustain her form. Add Outstanding to an already long list and we have a race best sat out.

YORK August 19th:

2.30: Blinkers and a tongue-tie temper any enthusiasm in Lieutenant General, who faces potentially smart opposition here. Cymric (withdrawn at Newbury on Saturday due to the soft ground) and Recorder look the most likely. Recorder, who has shown plenty of encouragement on his two starts to date, gets the vote to supplement a win at Newmarket last time that is working out well. He looks capable of better still. Mohab will find this a much stiffer test than he has encountered so far.

3.05: After excellent efforts at Group 1 level, Storm The Stars is the clear form pick here, particularly as he was in front of the penalised Balios last time at levels. However, the lightly-raced and improving Bondi Beach could prove to be the stumbling block. Jockey bookings suggest he has the edge over Queen’s Vase winner Aloft and Giovanni Canaletto – who was only two lengths behind Storm The Stars at Epsom. Tashaar is heading in the right direction but faces a serious hike in class now, leaving the progressive Bondi Beach (winner of the Group 3 Curragh Cup last time) to pose the biggest threat to a favourite that has surely plateaued for the time being at least.

3.40: So to a cracking renewal of the Juddmonte International, surely dominated this year by a trio of outstanding three-year-olds. Golden Horn looks one of the best Derby winners in recent years – a horse that can be compared with Sea The Stars and Galileo. Despite doubts over his ability to truly stay the Derby trip back in June, he now looks a natural twelve furlong horse – emphasised by the way he pulled away from The Grey Gatsby in the closing stages of the Coral Eclipse. The Grey Gatsby’s beating of last year’s winner of this, Australia, in the Irish Champion, only emphasises Golden Horn’s claims to the highest level. A fast pace is ensured by the presence of a pacemaker so the trip is unlikely to inconvenience the unbeaten Derby winner here. Formidable opponent though he appears on paper, Gleneagles (who has precocious speed on the distaff side) may struggle beyond a mile at such an exalted level. In any event he has yet to prove himself against older horses. A bigger threat emerges in the shape of Time Test, who will be in his element over this extended ten furlongs and looked like a colt about to peak when scoring at Royal Ascot in June. Saved for this, he looks likely to give Golden Horn most to do and will be no pushover.

4.20: Irish challengers Heartbreak City and Cardinal Palace both complicate an already tricky looking handicap. Either could be favourably treated now returned to the Flat and they look dangerous. Oasis Fantasy has had a nightmare season, success largely thwarted by poor draws. The problem is that he has run well in defeat and risen in the handicap as a result.

4.55: Without an all-important phone call in the dead of night, there are too many possible plots lurking in this nursery. Reputation, Sir Roger Moore and Tawwaaq appeal as three likely candidates in a race riddled with intrigue.

 

SATURDAY August 15th:

 

NEWBURY: 2.00: Normally a race of betting interest, with there being so little between Twin Sails and Palawan on Goodwood running – form that, although the best on offer, may not be particularly strong – it is hard to form a solid opinion here. Of the two Twin Sails is marginally preferred, but he and Palawan do face other threats. The ground is likely to test American-bred Cymric to the limit, but Dessertoflife is likely to improve for this surface.

2.35: A reproduction of his third in the King George would entitle Romsdal to take this, but he is not a horse to place ultimate faith in. His supporters will argue he has the trip and the ground in his favour, which they will bank on being the clincher on this occasion. However, his overall profile does not instil confidence. Gospel Choir is uncomplicated and likely to run his race; whilst on this easier surface, Ayrad (two lengths behind Gospel Choir last time) could play a bigger part in proceedings today.

3.45: On this ground Here Comes When gets his chance to grab his first success of the season. Proven on this sort of surface, with no Solow to contend with here, he can make the most of a drop in grade and looks sure to figure. Of the rest Markaz has the ability to trouble the principals, whilst the current price on offer for Majestic Mount assumes too much. A winner over this trip and on this ground in France, he does have something to find but should not be dismissed. Richard Pankhurst will surely benefit from this his first attempt since winning the Chesham as a juvenile; Adaay may be stretched by the trip; Cable Bay and last year’s winner Breton Rock have solid claims without appealing as betting propositions; penalised Safety Check has no form on ground this soft.

NEWMARKET: 2.50: Ice Lord looks temptingly well-treated in this competitive event and is taken to run well from the foot of the handicap.

 

As regards tomorrow, Bob; herewith a couple of thoughts:
Sandown: 2.50 looks a straightforward contest between Royal Ascot protagonists Riflescope and Soapy Aitken, meaning there is value to be had for those that call it right. On the face of it Riflescope’s Norfolk fourth in a faster time to Soapy Aitken’s fourth in the Windsor Castle looks better. Trouble is the Norfolk was run at a lunatic early pace and the form may be dubious. I do know Soapy Aitken is very highly thought of and his overall profile makes him the call this end.

 

 

GUINEAS WEEKEND – MAY 2nd/3rd:

Newmarket: Saturday May 2nd: A splash of rain (forecast but not forthcoming at the time of writing) would be welcome before the start of the two-day Classic meeting…

2.00: Two seasons on and after six races, on the verge of what ought to be a lucrative campaign, Top Tug now makes his reappearance as a four-year-old. Rather like a vintage wine, he has always looked likely to improve with age (something confirmed by his pedigree) and he embarks on his third season equipped with what looks like a reasonable mark. Despite his stable’s rather slow start to the season (signs they might be hitting stride now), he should be up to this task en route to loftier targets.

3.45: 2000 Guineas: Apparently Gleneagles lines up here for his first start of the season with all guns ablaze. Demoted after winning the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere on merit, although technically he is closely matched with Territories, he sets a pretty high standard and is taken to repel the French challenger. Several line up in opposition with similar claims. Decent though they are, Estidhkaar and Ivawood look a notch below that required. Intilaaq is interesting after blitzing his rivals in a maiden at Newbury in a fast time, but he will find this a different proposition. Elm Park has had an ideal preparation and his form looks solid. He will improve for some cut so granted some ease in the ground could go well. His current double-figure price looks too big. Similarly, Moheet should not be judged too harshly on his third in the Craven. It is a run he is capable of improving upon, particularly if the rain arrives, in which case Ladbrokes should find no shortage of takers at their present price of 33/1.

4.55: Second to Elm Park in the Racing Post, a good run from the winner in the Guineas will ensure Aloft will be well supported here. He looks the pick on juvenile form and promises to stay the trip.

At Doncaster in the 6.45 the handicapper has certainly taken no prisoners with Strong Chemistry’s mark. Raised 9lbs for a Newbury second in a race that has yet to work out, he is asked a big question in having concede 19lbs to the improving Gothic Empire.
7.45: After a fair effort in a decent Newmarket handicap, Spiriting should open his account without too much bother in this maiden.

May 3rd: Newmarket: 3.40: As the betting suggests The 1000 Guineas looks wide open. Lucida is a fragile form pick as she has little in hand of Malabar and Osaila. Jellicle Ball’s name will not sit particularly well on the winners’ list, but she is expected to come on for her recent Fred Darling second, particularly over this extra furlong and could be the alternative.

4.50: Zannda could be on course for a tilt at the Oaks, something she can emphasise with a win here.

5.25: Muqtaser can be expected to improve on a pleasing run here two weeks ago in what looks like a tight handicap full of possible improvers.

WEDNESDAY – APRIL 29th:

Ascot: 3.30: As it stands the penalty and, possibly more importantly, the ground is against Tac De Boistron, who although he handles a lively surface is much better in the wet. The converse is the case for Forever Now, who was not suited by the soft at Nottingham on reappearance and can reverse form with stable mate Deuce Again on this forecast faster surface. Pallasator could provide the biggest threat, although this is a quality renewal that features several unknown quantities.

4.05: Unbeaten last year and extremely impressive in the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy, Limato looks more than smart. Likely to be short in the betting, his price will not be to everyone’s taste but it is not feasible to oppose him.

4.35: Mondialiste gets another chance at this level following a decent enough effort behind French Navy at Newmarket. The extra furlong and an interrupted passage conspired against him then (although he would not have won in any case, but was beaten by a couple of useful types). With 5lbs turnaround in his favour after finishing marginally in front of Moohaarib in the Lincoln he should confirm that form, although he still faces a serious threat in the shape of Hors De Combat.

Pontefract: 2.00: From a stable that landed a gamble with a similar juvenile on Saturday, speedily-bred Bossipop looks interesting on debut but will have to be decent to score. This stiff five furlongs will suit twice-raced Sixth Sense, who has shaped with promise against decent rivals (winners are destined for Royal Ascot) and gets his turn today.

SATURDAY – APRIL 25th:

Haydock: 2.55: Last seen when a staying-on third to Fred Darling runner-up Jellicle Ball at Kempton in October, apparently Gold Sands has made improvement since and an Oaks entry suggests she ought to open her account here.

Ripon: 4.35: Decorated Knight is likely to be a short price to break his maiden but the perfect opportunity appears to have been found here. Reports suggest he is in top shape for his second run after what was a promising debut behind Commemorative at Doncaster during the St Leger meeting last September.

Sandown: Is all about one man – we wish him well on his last day in the saddle. Purists will find loyalties divided in the Grade 1 where the champ’s partner Mr Mole and Sprinter Sacre currently share market leadership. To say the least, after a lack-lustre effort at Cheltenham, the reappearance on a racecourse of Sprinter Sacre is surprising. Only the foolhardy could contemplate backing him, meaning Vibrato Valtat is more likely to spoil the party.

FRIDAY – APRIL 24th:

Sandown: 1.30: As always the Esher Cup sets punters with a knotty puzzle. Tom Hark finished strongly in a valuable handicap at Musselburgh early in the month (clashes swords with the second again), looking likely to improve for the experience. He faces several likely lads but should give a good account.

2.00: Postponed should make his mark at this level this season, but his reappearance over ten furlongs, as opposed to twelve, suggests he might be found out on his seasonal debut. Cannock Chase looks more likely to relish the trip and conditions and would be preferred, but again fitness has to be taken on trust. Western Hymn makes up the trio from which the winner is likely to emerge. Tullius really requires more give in the ground.

2.30: Shifting Power appeals as the type to improve for his third season and on ground he likes, is taken to open his account for the year. Here Comes When is likely to find this surface on the lively side. Penalties threaten to make life tough for Bow Creek and Custom Cut.

3.00: Not only does Commemorative line up here with the best form but he is also subject to a positive message. Recent work with a couple of high-profile inmates means a 2lbs penalty should not prevent him from succeeding.

4.45: Although only the winner of a Wolverhampton maiden in December, Jack Hobbs won a race that looks particular solid (has thrown up three winners). Apparently he is expected to step up further and make light of his mark of 85. Clearly the handicapper was not fooled and would have had explaining to do had he accorded a higher rating to a horse his stable still feel is well-treated. With a similar profile, Stravagante looks the biggest danger.

SATURDAY – APRIL 18th:

Newbury: 1.45: Romsdal had the ideal preparation for this when winning the Listed Magnolia stakes at Kempton last month over an inadequate trip. Clearly this distance will suit and he should be spot-on for what represents a much sterner test – particularly against Arab Spring who was progressive this time last year before tamely fizzling out in the Princes’s Of Wales at Newmarket in July. Talked of as a possible Arc contender beforehand, and not seen since and kept in training by a yard that excels with horses of his type, his inclusion here looks significant.

2.15: Tiggy Wiggy stands out in the Fred Darling; however there is the small matter of her stamina to address. Whether she lasts this seven or not the mile of the Guineas is likely to be beyond her.

2.50: The Greenham has attracted a cracking line-up: Belardo (apparently done well over the winter), Ivawood (not guaranteed to dominate in quite the way he did as a juvenile), Estidhkaar (not considered to be the best three-year-old in the Hannon yard but still a high class colt), Fannaan (very likeable but has something to find), Dick Whittington (form on the fringe of the highest level) and Toocoolforschool (another that has apparently wintered well; will stay and could be the fly in the ointment) comprise the meat of this Group 3. Considering the quality of the opposition, current prices install Ivawood at a very short price.

3.25: Invariably running well in tight events of this nature, it’s about time Ayaar lifted a high-profile handicap. Reasonably treated, his story so far has to be on the premises without actually breaking through. His low draw may be against him now and preference is for the unexposed Dream Spirit. A host of dangers can be nominated, making this a race for small stakes interest only.

4.35: Plenty line up here having shown promise and with classy pedigrees. Two that will not line-up unfancied are Keble and Intilaaq, but at this stage only a brave man would disregard the remainder of the field.

5.10: Narrowly beaten on debut at Newmarket in October (probably would have won for a smack), Wheat Sheaf sets a fair standard here. Providing the stable’s representative Ooty Hill runs with credit on Friday (by that he should win or go close), he should be tough to beat in what looks the weaker of the two divisions of this maiden.

Thirsk: 5.05: Not seen since Royal Ascot, Appleberry has been given a real chance by the handicapper from a mark of 89. She was not disgraced in high-class company last season and any market move in her direction would be significant.

Ayr: 2.35: Lightly raced this season and on the all-important ground he prefers, Sign Of A Victory is a stable fancy to continue the current form of his yard and could be too good for his opponents in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.

NEWBURY GREENHAM MEETING – APRIL 17th:

The show moves on to Newbury where it is interesting stuff but not that inviting from a punter’s perspective. Last year’s winner Lucky Beggar – who had a satisfactory pipe-opener at Doncaster – and Robot Boy – who was below his best at Musselburgh on his return but is liable to improve – look the two in the sprint at 3.55. With the accent on unraced maidens by and large the card is message dependent and even then it does not look straightforward. So it’s likely to be a quiet day in this neck of the woods.

The Conditions Stakes at 2.50 may present an angle with which to work where, despite finishing third in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile, Winters Moon will need to be at her best to overcome the likeable colt Ooty Hill. Having created a big impression at Newmarket last October, the son of Dubawi could be a Derby candidate (will miss the Guineas) and has apparently wintered well. Fast ground would not be ideal for Oooty Hill, but although it is drying out all the time, the surface should not be a problem. Won last year by the smart Western Hymn, this again looks a quality affair. The inclusion of Star Of Seville (like Winters Moon, a filly) adds spice to what should be an interesting renewal, for which Ooty Hill is the selection but not necessarily a bet.

NEWMARKET CRAVEN MEETING – APRIL 16th:

2.20: As usual – at least on paper – the field for the Wood Ditton looks chock-full of potential stars. Plenty make appeal on pedigree but so often this is a race that fails to live up to expectations. Take away the number cloths and Exosphere, Almohtaseb, Barreesh and Argus are amongst those to take the eye – as does Fallen For A Star. However, it is the last-named stable mate, Markstein that is likely to capture the lion’s share of market support if reports are to be believed. By Raven’s Pass he will relish this ground and has apparently been working with a great deal of zest prior to his debut.

3.30: A big improver last year, Music Master gets a chance in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes to consolidate his close third in the Group 1 Sprint at Haydock in October.

4.05: The Craven has attracted a decent field with established form represented by War Envoy (fit from a recent run) and Nafaqa (second in the Royal Lodge to Elm Park – who, incidentally, is reported to be in fine fettle currently at home) and the inclusion of likely improvers Aces and Moheet.

4.40: Not disgraced behind genuine Group 1 performers last year (Australia twice and The Grey Gatsby), Arod is the interesting participant in the Earl Of Sefton. Unlikely to fail for lack of a run he will appreciate this drop in grade.

5.40: Traditionally a hot handicap for three-year-olds, Mohatem, who is sure to handle this quick surface, makes the most appeal against several rivals that could be potentially well-in for future tilts at high-profile handicaps of this nature.

NEWMARKET CRAVEN MEETING – APRIL 15th:

Here we are again! In many eyes it’s the start of the Flat as we embark on a frenetic week of trials at Newmarket and Newbury. A word of caution to those that can’t wait to hit the ground running: It’s a long season and plenty of fingers tend to get burned at this time of year! If we can identify a couple of bets on the week I shall be pleased but I intend to pace myself and not to get carried away – either metaphorically or physically.
By all accounts after a mild winter the Newmarket stables are pretty forward this season – John Gosden’s is reported to be raring to go so there should be no obvious reason to oppose the likely odds-on favourite Faydhan in the Free Handicap, who does not appear to face tough opposition. Fit from a recent win at the Curragh, The Warrior is another short-priced candidate likely to oblige in the Tattersalls Millions Sprint at 2.55. Neither will carry my cash!

4.05: Osaila may lack the scope of some of her rivals in the Nell Gwyn but her juvenile form is the best on offer and she deserves her place at the head of the market. This trip of seven furlongs may be on the sharp side for Beautiful Romance and Lady Correspondent, both of whom looked useful in backend maidens last season. On the other hand there has to be a slight doubt about Terror’s stamina as, with a quick pedigree and a turn of foot to match, sprinting may be her sphere. Mark Johnston’s string appears to be in form so Muraaqaba may just finish in front of fillies she will struggle to beat later in the season. In all this looks a tricky contest to solve.

4.40: Golden Horn is the first of what is sure to be a hatful of tips on the week. There was nothing wrong with his maiden win last year from Storm The Stars (every chance in the maiden half an hour later) but it will need improving upon in this Listed event. However this is not the strongest renewal of the Feilden so, without going overboard he is the selection.

5.40: Salt Island concluded his first season with a decent effort at Doncaster in listed company on only his second start. He should be suited by this firmer surface and with his stable in form looks like the one to beat in a hard race. At a price, look out for Navigate who looks reasonably treated from his current mark having looked as if seven was a bridge too far and is now racing over a trip he has won over.

GRAND NATIONAL DAY – April 10th:

Aintree: 1.30: Parlour Games can emerge from a strong Grade 1 field and start the day in the best possible way for Tony McCoy and his supporters. Runner-up to Windsor Park in the Neptune when Nicholas Canyon was third, a win in the Challow and a Grade 2 at Cheltenham make him the logical selection. He also has the advantage of a Flat racing pedigree that will ensure he handles the quick surface. They have been patient with Three Musketeers who looks a good prospect but who may lack the pace of Parlour Games.

2.05: God’s Own is not always the safest betting option but with the ground a major factor in his favour his chance here does look clear-cut.

2.50: Three of the World Hurdle principals renew rivalry here but calling the order in which they are likely to finish is not straightforward. It was Cole Harden’s day at Cheltenham, but against Aintree winners Zarkandar and Whisper (won this last year) he is not certain to confirm that form. Zarkandar has the ability but his attitude in a tight finish is questionable. After only two runs this season Whisper will line up fresher than most and can step up on his ten lengths fifth at Cheltenham. Those in search of alternatives from the World Hurdle could do worse than consider the consistent Henryville who may have a few pounds to find but looks sure to run his race and is temptingly priced.

4.15: So here we are again; one more – one less! The usual rules apply; chief amongst them has to be the one governed by Lady Luck. With Lord Windermere and Many Clouds (both of whom are hard to fancy) anchoring the weights it is tempting to think that from a punters’ prospective the race has a reasonable shape to it. Rocky Creek ran well enough last year until tiring but there are reasons to believe that after a wind operation and a light campaign geared to this one day, we might see a different animal this time round. Based on an emphatic win at Kempton in February he looks to have lost none of his ability and enters the fray as the most interesting contender. A big run from First Lieutenant would not surprise.

Lingfield: 3.00: Trip To Paris might just about have won the Rosebery at Kempton a fortnight ago with a clear run. Even taking that form at face value it looks reasonably strong and he is taken to gain compensation over this slightly longer trip and from the same mark.

3.40: Fanciful Angel went into the notebook after narrowly failing on his seasonal debut when third to Lexington Times here last month. A 3lbs pull entitles him to overturn form that has been franked with the fourth (Four Seasons) and the winner occupying first and third in last week’s 3 Year Old Championship. Therefore, although it is surprising it could be significant that Richard Hughes elects to overlook what looks like strong form to partner Lexington Time’s stable mate Misterioso.

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING: Day Two – April 9th:

2.15: Quick ground on a sharp course is likely to suit the Flat-racing types over and above the more traditionally-bred National Hunt horses. For that reason the undoubtedly useful Glingerburn may struggle against Qewy and Cardinal Walter. These two met at Newbury in February when penalised Cardinal Walter came off second best but there is reason to believe that this highly-rated son of Cape Cross (a facile winner since) may force the issue this time on 6lbs better terms. Whatever the outcome between them, both have progressed since their Newbury encounter to post decent efforts and faced with ideal conditions here they could be the two to concentrate on.

3.25: Third in the Ryanair at the Festival, Don Cossack is preferred to Champagne Fever in this Grade 1. Until they prove otherwise it seems that Sire De Grugy, Al Ferof and Cue Card represent bygone days. Baldur Succes seems best in small fields whilst Johns Spirit, who ran so well in the King George on Boxing Day, is held by Don Cossack on Cheltenham running.

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING: Day One – April 8th:

1.40: Josses Hill may not be everyone’s idea of the consummate chaser but he did produce a personal best over fences at Cheltenham in the Arkle and there is every reason to assume he will progress again over this extra trip. Five lengths behind Josses Hill in the Arkle after more use was made of him, Vibrato Valtat looks a serious threat. However, unlike Josses Hill he is not guaranteed to pull out more over this extended trip.

2.15: After Josses Hill, Nicky Henderson has a great chance of hitting the blocks running with Hargam here. With the ground drying out all the time Hargam is almost sure to face ideal conditions and in any case little improvement is required on his excellent third in the Triumph Hurdle to grab this Grade 1. He has plenty in hand of Devilment on Cheltenham form. More danger is likely to come from All Yours (closely matched with Bouvereuil on their Fred Winter running but slightly hampered then and the choice of the stable jockey) and Bristol De Mai, who has been set some stiff tasks against older horses in two of his three runs over here since being imported from France. He will appreciate this return to his own age group but for win purposes might find the ground and the track on the quick side.

2.50: Back to ideal conditions last year’s winner Silviniaco Conti gets his chance to recover the winning thread here and by rights should surely be favourite. Surely we can now accept Silviniaco Conti a): doesn’t stay further than three miles and b): doesn’t show his best at Cheltenham. Therefore his run in the Gold Cup is best disregarded. Assuming the race has not left its mark he can reverse form with Holywell – who had a hard race at the Festival – and account for the spring mare that is Ma Filleule who, whilst respected, needs a personal best to score. The rest will struggle.

3.25: The extra four furlongs often turns Champion Hurdle form on its head here but the three principals in the betting this year all look as if it the trip will further their causes. We know Rock On Ruby is at his best over two-and-a-half and the trip is unlikely to hamper either Jezki (ran out of steam in the Champion having taken on Fagheen some way out) or Arctic Fire who had a comparatively easier run through beaten horses at the death. Perm any one from three…

5.15: Relatively fresh Call The Cops – who rattles off quick ground – gets another chance to arrive on the scene with all sirens blazing after only a 7lbs rise for winning the Pertemps Final. However, weight rises are designed to stop winners from following up and the suspicion is something may be lurking in the pack. A winner of a Grade 1 at this meeting last year, Lac Fontana has some high profile names on his gun belt and several form lines make him interesting. With excuses in place after a rough passage at Cheltenham last time he looks poised to run well, particularly in view of the weight allowance his more than capable rider receives, meaning he is in receipt of 1lb from Call The Cops.

GOOD FRIDAY APRIL 3rd:

Lingfield: 1.40: Fit from a recent fourth in Chantilly and holding Lamar (this trip may be on the sharp side but otherwise her recent second to Grendisar in the Winter Derby Trial sets the standard) on their run in a Listed over this trip at Deauville in December, from an ideal draw Fresles makes plenty of appeal. However, although a winner at seven there is the slightest suspicion that a truly run contest may stretch her stamina limitations and therein lies the rub. With the trip of concern for Fresles and Lamar we are left with fillies that have otherwise won in lesser company and have it all to prove at this level

2.10: A firework out of the gate who will probably appreciate this drop back in trip, Chookie Royale threatens to lead his rivals a merry dance in the early stages of this conditions stakes but the progressive Pretend threatens to scythe him down in the closing stages. A strong finisher over five last time, a return to this trip should be ideal for Pretend who is hard to oppose. Both he and Chookie Royale have a draw advantage and therefore should run their races and can dominate.

2.40: After winning the dress rehearsal last month possible Guineas candidate (has a long way to go before he can viewed as a serious contender) Lexington Times faces tougher opposition now. Four Season was only just over a length behind in fourth and whilst he will probably struggle to overturn that form, this step up to a mile will play to his strengths. The fact he does not carry the first colours means the unexposed Emirates Skycargo ought to be respected. Along with the strapping Tempus Temporis his presence adds weight to what looks like a hot heat.

3.15: With a 10lbs pull in his favour for less than a length when they last met in February, Sovereign Debt has to be fancied to overturn that form with Mindyourownbusiness. These two ought to have the edge over Irish challenger Captain Joy and the rest.

3.45: Tryster only has to reproduce his Winter Derby form to take this from Grendisar – his main challenger then and likely to be so again.

4.15: On what could be a big day for the Charlie Appleby yard, Portamento is another with serious claims here in what looks like a tight contest. They are throwing the kitchen sink at the desperately disappointing attitude-laden Squats, whose victory would not be a total surprise but who is hard to support after so many reversals. A wide draw is no help for Primrose Valley who may struggle to confirm recent form with Harry Hurricane and more importantly Blue Aegean (who carries the first colours of Godolphin and on these revised terms could become a serious contender).

4.45: Fielding the front two in the betting, once again Godolphin looks to hold the key. Anglophile and Hidden Gold have similar profiles; preference has to be for the stoutly-bred Anglophile who has already won over this extended trip.

Musselburgh: 2.25: Decent on the Flat, Ladbroke Hurdle winner Bayan gets another chance at a valuable prize here from what appears to be a reasonable mark (3lbs lower than when last seen on the level in September at Leopardstown and only beaten a little over three lengths). The maths suggests he is the one to beat once more.

3.30: As there is little between Blaine and Robot Boy on known form this looks like a coin flip of a race between the two.

WEEKEND MARCH 28th/29th:

Saturday: Doncaster: 2.00: Tullius ought to win a depleted Doncaster Mile, although by word of caution his best form is on a soft surface.

2.35: The ground may have the last word once again here with leading fancies Aetna and Jack Dexter (best days may be behind him) both at their best on soft. Drying ground would aid Astaire (ran his best race of the season first time last season but rather lost his way afterwards) and Naadirr (not out of contention even with a penalty) who makes plenty of appeal.

3.10: Pre-race players have seized on Certificate for this and despite the numbers, with his stable in such fine form, his chance looks solid. On a day when several high profile handicaps give the impression they may be easier to solve than history dictates, he is the selection. Donny Rover may enter calculations.

3.45: Quality is represented by Mange All, Moohaarib and GM Hopkins who are closely weighted. Bookmakers seem to have taken something of a chance with Belgian Bill (had several options over the weekend) who has been in great form in Dubai this winter and would be leniently treated if able to reproduce that here.

Kempton: 2.50: From a stable firing on all cylinders New Year’s Night looks relatively well treated from only a 3lb higher mark than when winning with some ease at Lingfield a fortnight ago. On the minus side this is a deeper race and all three attempts on this course have resulted in defeat – a statistic that may be coincidental. He is the obvious choice without appealing at the price.

4.35: Although the form pick, American Hope’s record of one win from nine attempts (has often looked his own worst enemy without doing too much wrong) sounds a note of warning. With Ninjago returning from a fruitless trip to Dubai and the unreliable Valbchek only a bet for the brave, Baddilini, who is in great form at present, may be the safest option.

Those of a nervous disposition may care to look away now. But for those of us that have followed its progress from January onward, this is the day when the Carnival that is Meydan culminates. On a glittering night the gold drips from the podium, starting with the Godolphin Mile at 12.40. After an excellent Carnival, Tamarkuz bids for a four-timer. A natural on dirt this will be his toughest task but he has beaten several of these already on the run up. The likes of Free Wheeling and Dark Emerald face dirt for the first time, whilst bred-for-the-job Sloane Avenue has a dirt pedigree but a wide draw and no experience. Therefore his biggest danger could be Frankyfourfingers, who although beaten last time when finding African Story and Prince Bishop too strong, will appreciate this drop in trip (and possibly grade) and could return to his best now, in which case he looks overpriced. Both he and Tamarkuz are well drawn.

1.15: Brown Panther is the one to beat here and no one will begrudge victory to his sporting and enthusiastic owners. However fast ground and a wide draw hardens the task so Bathyrhon, and to a lesser extent from an equally bad box (partnered by a jockey that is desperate to race wide in any case), Rio Tigre look like each-way pin money alternatives.

1.55: The trip of the UAE Derby may stretch Maftool who will be hard-pressed to confirm Guineas form with Mubtaahij. However, the presence of progressive Japanese contender Golden Barrows and possibly prolific ex-Uruguayan star Sir Fever, who shaped with promise when second to Mubtaahij on debut here and now in first-time blinkers, makes this hard to call.

2.30: With the form of the sprinters in the Al Quoz tying in, separating them is tough. However, a couple step into the ring for the first time and it could pay to concentrate on them. Now based in Hong Kong where he is rapidly making a name for himself, the Wetherby’s Super Sprint winner of two years ago when with Richard Fahey, Peniaphobia, sets the standard. However, he is closely matched with Bundle Of Joy after the two battled out a Group 1 at Sha Tin in January. These two could easily dominate again. Last year’s winner Amber Sky deserves respect, although it seems fair to say not everything has gone to plan since that win. Of the rest a relatively fresh Via Africa is interesting. Noted coming back for more after losing his place three weeks ago when beaten just over three lengths by Sir Maximilian on his first run for ten months, with winning Grade 1 form to his credit in South Africa, although that needs improving upon he represents value at a double-figure price.

3.05: A tough renewal of the Golden Shaheen looks booked for one of those bussed-in for the occasion: Secret Circle (tough but an infrequent winner), Salutos Amigos or Lucky Nine looking the obvious contenders.

3.40: The presence of recent winners Solow and Cladocera means the Dubai Turf could be dominated by fillies but these two face a rise in grade. From left-field and not seen since winning the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes at Arlington in August, apparently the much improved Euro Charline has been flying of late and can spring a surprise. Top-rated The Grey Gatsby may be better over slightly further and later in the season.

4.15: Arguably given too much to do in the Arc, Harp Star gets her chance now but faces hot opposition. There is little between the quality trio of Dolniya, Flintshire and Main Sequence. The latter has blossomed since moving to America but has to prove he can transfer that form to what is now foreign soil. The other principal in the betting, Designs On Rome, has yet to win at this trip in a race that, without an obvious pacemaker, could turn into a scrappy but quality contest.

5.00: And so to the World Cup, for which Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome – narrowly denied in the Breeders’ Cup Classic – undoubtedly has the best qualifications, particularly on dirt. With impressive form on dirt in Japan, Hokko Tarmae is seen as a bigger danger than dirt debutant Epiphaneia.

SUNDAY 29th March: Ascot: 2.30: Puffin Billy looks to be attempting mission impossible in trying to concede 10lbs to Thomas Crapper in this novice chase.

Doncaster 5.00: Fit from two all-weather spins, Viewpoint has plummeted to a tempting level on turf which he may be in a position to exploit against modest opposition.

SATURDAY MARCH 21st:

Newbury: 2.35: Based on her close second to the now 130 plus-rated As De Mee at Leicester, Tara Mist could be thrown in with the proverbial pitchfork in this fiercely competitive mares’ Listed handicap. Continuing the pitchfork metaphor I am rather clutching at straws as she faces several mares that are on an upwards spiral. Not normally an event to interest yours truly, her best form is over this extended trip and she represents value at a double-figure price.

3.45: Taking into account two of his three spins over hurdles, Storm Force Ten currently looks well treated. His debut effort at Sandown when a decent second to Bivouac, and his latest fourth to subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Peace And Co at that track indicates a mark of 123 should put him in here with an outstanding chance. However, sandwiched between those runs was a dismal effort at Kempton for which no palpable excuse has been forthcoming. This extended trip is also something of an unknown. All in all the best we can say is that he is a dubious form pick that may be capable of better than we have seen so far.

FRIDAY MARCH 20th:

This weekend promises to be as quiet as next week promises to be busy.
Newbury stages its last National Hunt fixture of the year – meaning directly after the Craven at Newmarket they will next be in action for the Greenham meeting in April.
We might salvage something from the current jumping season between now and then. Always well regarded, after a fair debut over fences at Haydock, at a similar track (also has good hurdles form there) Wuff could be worth a second look in the 3.45. He is less exposed than many of his rivals and could have been underestimated by the handicapper.

SATURDAY MARCH 14th:

Although he has something to find with Grendisar on their running of three weeks ago, Cloudscape – useful this time last year but fragile on turf – is interesting in the Winter Derby at 3.05 at Lingfield. Suited by an artificial surface, after a gentle return to action he can at least bridge the gap with Grendisar with that run under his belt. In a hotly contested event where dangers lurk aplenty, he is only a tentative selection.

Sugar Baron appears to only have Port Melon to beat at Kempton in the 4.05 and is taken to concede weight to his main rival.

CHELTENHAM FRIDAY MARCH 13th:

3.20: One way or another, the Gold Cup hinges on the conclusion drawn over the horse with the best form: Silviniaco Conti. Yet to win at this course or over this trip (reasons to feel he does not quite stay), this year’s line-up appears to be tougher than last year’s so whatever his stable claim, despite being the highest rated runner in the field, he represents the angle for those wishing to look elsewhere. Those that keep the faith will point to his record this season (winning his second King George and before that the Betfair), claiming he has been kept fresh and looks a more powerful competitor now than when running on empty from the last twelve months ago. To this observer he looks a weak favourite. Similarly Bobs Worth (surely his best is behind him at the age of ten), last year’s winner Lord Windermere, The Giant Bolster and Holywell look to fall short of the required standard. Djakadam is something of a wild card that deserves respect but will need to better anything so far achieved. A rough line through Houblon Des Obeaux gives the two improvers Many Clouds and Coneygree the same sort of chance. Both are likely to figure at the business end but Lexus winner Road To Riches – who has gone from strength to strength this season – may prove too street wise. Coneygree (impervious to ground) and Many Clouds can follow him home.

The supporting card is hard. After an eye-catching run at Ascot last time, Le Mercurey must have a chance in the 4.40 but is still vulnerable from top weight. Peace And Co looks a worthy Triumph Hurdle favourite but for those not already on, makes limited appeal at the price. Quick Jack looks well handicapped in the Vincent O’Brien at 2.05 – particularly on Flat form with Big Easy.

THURSDAY MARCH 12th:

Cheltenham: 1.30: All roads of thinking lead to Vautour as he holds Apache Stronghold and therefore Valseur Lido, leaving only Ptit Zig as the most obvious obstacle between him and victory here. Ptit Zig lines up after an uncharacteristic slip at Ascot last time but the strength of the Irish challenge looks formidable.

2.05: This looks wide open and extremely competitive. Given his connections Edeymi is a precautionary favourite at present, particularly after an eye-catching run behind Dawalan last time at Musselburgh. Dawalan – who often only does enough – has progressed this season with this step up in trip but his present mark requires a monumental effort. Call The Cops enters calculations as a relatively fresh horse that dotted up last time but may struggle to confirm Kempton form with Brother Brian, another that has trodden a soft road this season and is taken to come out on top again. Drying ground will not be against him.

2.40: This is a hot Ryanair: prolific Irish winner Don Cossack, spring mare Ma Filleule, who is running into form and has three lengths plus to find on Balder Succes, and Johns Spirit, who ran off his face in the King George until lack of stamina curtailed him, look to be the protagonists. It may be dangerous to nominate Ma Filleule to overturn Ascot form with Balder Succes (so often in such circumstances form is confirmed) but the message from the Henderson yard is particular strong. This does represent a tough task for her as her rivals will put her to the sword but she gets the nod.

3.20: Again there are no easy answers to this – another top class event chock-full of possibilities. However, Lieutenant Colonel lines up with Grade 1 form to his credit and has a turn of foot that may prove crucial. Saphir Du Rheu and Whisper could be the biggest dangers.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 11th:

Cheltenham: 1.30: In keeping with the rest of the card, shuffling through the runners in the deck here is no easy matter. With only a neck separating Parlour Games and Vyta Du Roc at Newbury, Nichols Canyon (close with Windsor Park) and Outlander spearheading a strong Irish challenge, and Beast Of Burden and Ordo Ab Chao looking like they have more to offer than we have seen so far – good luck to anyone attempting to solve this.

2.05: Grade 1 winner Don Poli lines up with a big home reputation and carrying plenty of confidence. After the successes of the stable on the first day it is hard to argue. Kings Palace appears to present the biggest obstacle.

2.40: Tony Martin sets something of a puzzle here with his two runners: Blackmail and Marinero that could, in typical Martin style, be ahead of the handicapper.

3.20: Despite an indifferent return at Ascot when looking very fit, the message for Sprinter Sacre is extremely positive. He and Sire De Grugy have to roll back the years to figure once again at this level, something history suggests is unlikely. Sire De Grugy did not look like a horse that was enjoying himself at Chepstow and Sprinter Sacre bled after Ascot. At their best they would be too good but… Dodging Bullets and Champagne Fever are the obvious alternatives.

4.40: Once again we are presented with a minefield of a handicap. Gordon Elliott fields two interesting participants in Thunder Zone and Hostile Fire, both of whom will be suited by drying ground.

TUESDAY MARCH 10th:

Cheltenham: 1.30: So impressive have they been in the lead-up to this, it is hard to see beyond the front two in the betting here. Douvan has been imperious in his two hurdle races in Ireland winning with consummate ease; those looking to oppose him might take some succour from the fact those victories have been on right-handed tracks. That may prove to be a straw that floats in the wind rather than one to clutch at – but it is worth mentioning. The more experienced L’ami Serge arguably has better form claims but has not won with quite the same ease as Douvan, although he has faced stronger opposition. Both have done their racing on softer ground than they will encounter now. Looking beyond them, Jollyallan (the choice of McCoy over Alvisio Ville whom he has ridden) appears to have a little to find with the two principals. Shaneshill could be the biggest danger now he returns to two miles (appeared to be outstayed last time) but as a Mullins inmate he has of course been by-passed by Walsh. Qewy has a useful turn of foot that he can utilise on this faster ground but by and large we are judging him on one run that may be misleading.

2.05: They are telling us Un De Sceaux is a good thing for the Arkle. Those reluctant to buy money at a meeting that often pays scant respect to short-priced favourites will be looking elsewhere. On the minus side the favourite has fallen once and won his other two chases at long odds-on, including when accounting for Grade 1 winner Clarcam (re-opposes here) last time. Vibrato Valtat is the obvious alternative – the rest are required to find hitherto un-shown form to win.

2.40: Three miles and a bit on drying ground may scupper several out-and-out sloggers here. Although the handicapper has not exactly been lenient by putting Ned Stark up by 6lbs for winning at Wetherby at the end of January that was a mighty performance by a up-and-coming staying chaser likely to make his mark in future high-profile handicaps. He is potentially the class act. However, saved for this and closely matched with Ned Stark on a line through Kaki De La Pree, but twice the price, Gevrey Chambertin, who has form on this sounder surface and responded positively to first-time blinkers at Newbury in December, looks worth chancing with the headgear back on.

3.20: This is the big day for Faugheen who was so impressive in the Neptune over two-and-a-half at last year’s Festival. A winner at two he often takes time to warm up in his races – something he cannot afford in a Champion Hurdle. The dying ground will suit last year’s ‘ghost winner’ The New One, although it threatens to be close between him and Jezki once again. Despite his admirable record it is surely asking too much of Hurricane Fly to roll back the years, particularly in view of his preference for racing at home. Of the rest the rapidly improving Kitten Rock could run better than his price but McCoy prefers Jezki and this is not a race that favours five-year-olds.

4.00: It is inconceivable that Annie Power will fail for lack of a recent run. So far is she in front of her rivals that only a bolt from the blue looks likely to stop her in what is a strong line-up for the Mares’ Hurdle.

4.40: Comparatively classy Very Wood looks worthy of favouritism here in an event where stamina is at a premium. That said betting on horses trying four miles for the first time and amateur ridden is surely for the brave or the foolhardy.

5.15: This looks a tough race to bring down the first day proceedings. Those at the head of the betting have to a large extent shown their hands to the handicapper so further improvement is required. In the case of Thomas Crapper and Generous Ransom (everything clicked right last time) it may be forthcoming but Dromnea has progressed throughout the season (would have been closer in Grade 2 Flyingbolt but for a mistake at the last over inadequate trip) and is a tentative selection at a double-figure price.

SATURDAY MARCH 7th:

Sandown: 3.10: The troops are out in force for the Imperial Cup – traditionally the last opportunity of a pop for punters before the Cheltenham Festival next week. The unbeaten Bidourey bids to maintain an excellent record for a stable that has dominated this event over the years; however, as a four-year-old it should be noted he is 8lbs higher up the handicap than it appears, meaning he is technically conceding weight to several rivals with a similar profile. One of those – recent Ascot winner (form franked on Friday) Thistlecrack, who is unbeaten over this trip – makes plenty of appeal. Given the recent run of successes on Saturdays enjoyed by the Nicholls yard, Calipto may shade favouritism come race time but the value in a fierce contest appears to lie with Thistlecrack.

Wolverhampton: 2.15: It’s billed as trials day at the Midlands track – the card certainly starts with a humdinger. Intransigent went in the notebook after his run at Lingfield last time. Over this trip and more favourably drawn now, he should run his race. However this is a tough assignment and he only holds each-way claims. Last year’s winner Chookie Royale and Sovereign Debt are among many serious rivals. The doubly represented Marco Botti (whose horses are in fine form) may hold the key here with former Rockfel winner Al Thakhira, who, partnered by Frankie Dettori and over her optimum trip, will surely be fit for her debut run in a contest she is capable of winning. The stable’s other contender Grey Mirage is hard to win with.

2.50: The Lincoln Trial presents another knotty problem for would-be punters. Many will consider Mindurownbusiness as the one to beat on recent form but it is not a given he will confirm that against Melvin The Grate and Don’t Call Me. The presence of Pearl Nation and Billingsgate means this is hard to predict with confidence.

Meydan: They stage trials of a different variety in Dubai where it’s Super Saturday – the last meeting before World Cup Day at the end of the month. A seemingly reformed Tamarkuz has looked a dirt monster since breaking on terms and blitzing his rivals on the run-up to this. Well-drawn again, chances are he will flash out and be gone once more in 2.20.
James Doyle has elected to partner Sky Hunter in preference to True Story in the Group 2 on turf at 2.55. The former French Derby third ended last season on a high at Newbury and should be capable of accounting for Umgiyo, Cooptado and Sheikzayedroad.
Frankyfourfingers and Prince Bishop renew rivalry in the 3.30 and as cases can be made for both, it is a tricky call.
Hunter’s Light, who has been in sparkling form at the Carnival, bids for a three-timer in the curtain call at 4.05 but faces the beast that is Vercingetorix, who should be a notch too good.

FRIDAY MARCH 6th:

Sandown: 4.00: On the limited evidence available Lessons In Milan looks well handicapped, something that should enable him to win this. An eye-catching third at Ascot to stable mate Out Sam over this trip was followed by a very easy win at Lingfield last time. Although against more experienced rivals here, his class should be crucial.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28th:

It’s the last day of the worst month of the year! With it comes a hard set of racing programmes, so, swerving a couple of obvious but fragile selections, investment ought to be kept to a minimum.

LINGFIELD: 4.05: Although he picked up ground in the straight, a bad draw, allied to considerable kick-back, did not assist Smoothtalkinrascal last time at Chelmsford City. Racing from a tempting mark, it could be a different story now. All his best form has been over the minimum trip, and with the draw in his favour this time he is of some interest. Not always the safest of betting propositions (he can miss the break), he could be worth chancing at a double figure price.

NEWBURY: 1.45: In a race that for various reasons has attracted those on the easy list, Provo is the one to catch the eye. Having been prominent for a long way here three weeks ago over three miles, this drop in trip should suit.

2.50: This is the kind of puzzling race that encapsulates the day. However, I can pass on a word for Royal Guardsman, for whom a case can be constructed, particularly when one looks at his hurdle and bumper form before he attempted a largely unsuccessful spell over fences. A recent run has sharpened him up and, although outsider of the field in the ante-post market, it would be no surprise to see him attract some support and run accordingly.

DONCASTER: 1.25: In what looks like a two-horse affair, Cardinal Walter is given the nod over Fort Worth. Runner-up in a hot maiden at Newbury three weeks ago, this slight rise in trip should help.

MEYDAN FEBRUARY 26th:
2.45: As several could win on bits of form that they are not guaranteed to reproduce, it is hard to get enthusiastic about the day’s first event. As it stands Rafeej arguably has the best credentials but having apparently gurgled in running last time he cannot be backed with any confidence. In any event he is closely weighted with Nawwaar on their running here in December. Strategical and Ninjago try dirt for the first time and the other two appear equally dodgy.

3.20: The first three in the betting – One Man Band, Year Of Glory and Dubai Iconic – have obvious chances without looking sufficiently well in to look like punting material. Conquerant can enter the equation on revised terms after finishing second to One Man Band last time.

3.55: Local Time is presented with another chance to add to her tally in the desert in this Group 3 over a trip that should suit on running style but that has to be a concern on pedigree. With a cracking attitude, she will probably oblige but straw-clutchers in search of a bigger price prospect may conclude this trip will suit the striking Yodelling. She has plenty to find with Local Time and Good Place on their running here three weeks ago but is open to improvement in first time blinkers and therefore maybe the one to provide a shock if one is in store.

4.30: Paul Hanagan’s apparent reluctance to renew his association with Mastermind in favour of Tashbeeh is probably a crucial factor here. With most salient form lines tying in to Mastermind it seems reasonable to expect a bold showing from Tashbeeh who is well drawn but needs to hit the gates running on this his first appearance outside Australia.

5.05: After finishing in the exhausts of Faulkener and Safety Check with valid excuses (would only have finished closer), Shaishee may be a safer alternative than the ex-American Pazolini who, for all his record in the US (when on lasix), hardly inspires confidence in a first time tongue-tie.

5.40: Safety Check has been one of the stars of the Carnival so far, winning both his races with what looked like something to spare. This leap up to Group 2 company represents a step up but he appeals as the sort to stay with until beaten. According to official figures Darwin and Outstrip are the dangers but both have to bounce back to justify elevated ratings, meaning Soumillon rejects Anaerobio (closely coupled with Dark Emerald on last week’s runs) and Johann Strauss may hold better place prospects.

6.15: Belgian Bill has excellent prospects of reversing form with Tha’ir but after two fair spins round here, Norwegian Derby winner Eye In The Sky looks interesting, particularly as Soumillon seems to have elected to take the ride in preference to Flying The Flag.

KEMPTON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21st:

2.35: Irish Saint is taken to exploit any weakness in God’s Own whose form of late demands improvement if he is to figure here. Thought to be marginally in need of the run at Sandown last time, Irish Saint jumped soundly and was only narrowly defied. He should be spot on for this.

3.10: After an excellent run at Cheltenham in a race that looks bombproof as regards its form, Vago Collonges is expected to prove too strong for Days Of Heaven (who can be temperamental but whose record fails to match that of the selection in any case) and The Grey Taylor, who takes a hike in class to contest this.

3.45: As the classy contender Easter Day has an obvious chance. Still travelling well when crumpling at Cheltenham’s third-last a month ago he looks favourably weighted, although it is worth cautioning that he has yet to actually win at this trip. The signs are he will get it, but until experiencing the rough-and-tumble of a handicap such as this that is largely conjecture. Fox Appeal is a solid second-best at present but has nothing in hand of the assessor. Le Reve may struggle to follow up on his Sandown win of three weeks ago, particularly from his revised mark which requires a personal best. This is surely a springboard for Godsmejudge, who is better over extreme trips and is likely to be targeted at one of the forthcoming Nationals. Rocky Creek would have a chance if anywhere near back to his best but the signs are that he carries no stable confidence. Last year’s winner (2lbs higher now) and Kempton specialist Bally Legend should not be completely overlooked but still looks up against it. Equipped with first-time cheekpieces, the one that appeals most is Tap Night. Not the safest of betting propositions, he looks worth chancing at current odds after staying-on strongly last time at Cheltenham. Now down amongst the dead men as far as his rating is concerned, he has a real chance if reproducing that latest run.

MEYDAN THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19th:

3.20: Medicean Man returned to action here with a promising run three weeks ago behind Ahtoug, but Hototo, Lancelot Du Lac, Sir Maximilian and Caspian Prince all enter the reckoning on recent form and if fit, High On Life could be included in an ever-growing list. Without any obvious clues, solving this typically tight and competitive handicap is largely reliant on guesswork.

3.55: After chasing home Frankyfourfingers last time, Haatheq takes a drop in grade in this handicap. However in the twilight of his career and from a wide draw, his task is far from straightforward. Cases can be made for Layl and Filfil but with the inclusion of several unknown quantities the race fails to stop there.

4.30: Hunter’s Light will be popular after a taking comeback in a handicap here three weeks ago. Having mixed it in Group class the standard of the rivals he faces in this Listed event is within his compass, but Calling Out (also kept elevated company in France last year) and Umgiyo and Mr Pommeroy threaten to provide testing opposition for a horse that is not wholly convincing.

5.05: I’m Back and Le Bernardin have made giant strides at this year’s Carnival and both have serious claims in this handicap. There should be little between them on running here in early January but although both have progressed to better things since, the handicapper may have the last word now. Given a 6lbs pull with I’m Back for a little over three lengths on this course three weeks ago, Artigiano looks interesting. A decent performer in the UK he acquitted himself well on his debut on dirt (very much a likely candidate for it on pedigree) and is likely to be sharper now. He could be too good for Le Bernardin, who is marginally preferred to I’m Back and Storm Belt.

5.40: A tidy winner of the Cape Verdi three weeks ago, Cladocera should once again be too good for her nearest pursuers on that occasion: Zurigha and Anahita.

6.15: Fourth behind Safety Check a month ago, Anaerobio merits consideration here despite top weight and meeting Eastern Rules (second then) on disadvantageous terms. However, Music Theory comes out the best at the weights and has such a clear-cut chance on these terms that he is hard to ignore.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14th:

Ascot: 3.15: At first glance expensive purchase Padge, who appears well-handicapped from 128, seems the answer to this. However, there is no sign as yet he is going to recoup the £160,000 connections shelled out. A fine-looking type, he races with the choke out and may not be the safest of betting propositions. His first run over hurdles remains his best – a tame effort at Cheltenham, where he looked like a barge on a Sunday cruise, and a scrambling success last time at Taunton have failed to alter that opinion. He may be better over further and with the steadying factor of fences. If this prediction turns out to be wrong, stand by for a bloodless victory. In the belief it may be partially correct value may lie elsewhere and in the shape of Minstrels Gallery, who to an extent has been-there-and-done-that. He ran a reasonable race last time when third at Cheltenham in a competitive handicap and should at least be on the premises here from the same mark.

3.50: Ptit Zig lays an unbeaten record over fences on the line here and should prove hard to beat. A winner over this track and shaping up like a chaser with enormous potential, he should be too classy for Baldur Succes and may have most to feat from Ma Filleule, who has disappointed in her two runs so far this season but who tends to peak at this time of year.

Haydock: This card could be all about Tony McCoy who has excellent chances of riding a big-race treble with At Fishers Cross (2.20), Monbeg Dude (2.55) and Aqalim (3.25). Risking looking foolish (not for the first time!) it is the last-named that appeals to me. He lines up having won two of his hurdle races so far and last time was beaten by a contender in the Grade 2 that is run thirty-five minutes later. A mark of 132 looks fair and he could have several bullets still lodged in the chamber. The possibility of drying ground will also be of help to a son of Raven’s Pass.

4.00: Ballagh showed the transition to Grade 2 company was not beyond him last time at Warwick where he jumped and travelled well before being outpointed from the last by Three Musketeers. Receiving 7lbs from Fletchers Flyer this represents a chance to go one better.

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12th:

Meydan: 2.45: A step up in trip may be the ticket for Lanark who finished strongly last time over a mile to take third behind One Man Band. Clearly he handles dirt and, highly tried here on turf, he enters this handicap as something of an unknown quantity that is open to improvement. Layl was an impressive winner last time and although he gives the impression he has improved for the move to Dubai, he faces a tougher task now and is not certain to confirm placings with Jeeraan, who was having his first run of the season when third.

3.20: This is a tough turf contest in which several can be given chances. Rock Cocktail and Slumdogmillionaire have earned their respective places in the handicap and on the back of good runs last time have claims. Belgian Bill’s latest win has been boosted, however it is questionable whether he is the sort to record back-to-back wins. Pilote may be worth one last spin of the coin from a rare (for him) good draw. He travelled ominously well from a wide position last time when grabbing third place behind Hunter’s Light and may be capable of pulling out a couple of extra pounds now against several rivals with whom he is closely matched.

3.55: If he breaks on terms Maftool (a strong finisher last time after failing to hit the gates) should reverse Trial form with Mubtaahij and Ajwad in the UAE 2000 Guineas.

4.30: A reproduction of his last run would be enough to see 2013 Golden Sheehen winner Reynaldothewizard win this. However, now a pottery nine-year-old, he makes only limited appeal in an otherwise tight affair.

5.05: Third in the Group 1 Grand Prix du Paris and touched off in the Group 2 Prix Neil, Teletext is the class act in the Class 1 handicap – a race in which he appears to have been let in lightly. As this is his first run since September, fitness has to be taken on trust but it seems unlikely connections (who have retained him) would risk him in a handicap if he were thought be below par. He ought to be too good for his opponents. The trick that is Songcraft is always opposable but Excellent Result (closely matched with Al Saham, Fire Fighting and Eye In The Sky and the pick of James Doyle) may emerge as the best of the rest.

5.40: A good horse on his day with a good draw and a proven record on dirt, which his pedigree confirms, Tamarkuz – not always the easiest to predict – has the ability to win this if the pieces slot into place.

6.15: This is a tough finale. With infrequent winners Zahee, Elleval and Ocean Tempest among those with strong claims it may be best to pack up shop for the night.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7th:

Newbury: 1.15: A big day at the Berkshire track opens with a tough-looking novice hurdle. Cardinal Walter and Bouvreuil represent the powerhouses of Messrs Henderson and Nicholls and either could take this. Bouvreuil’s qualifications look marginally better after a fine third in a Sandown handicap on his debut in this country, but Cardinal Walter was impressive at Doncaster and despite the strength of opposition carries stable confidence. In a tough line-up that includes winners and a couple that have posted promise, Bouvreeuil is no more than a selection.

1.50: With the stable at last swinging into gear and with a tasty weight pull against Closing Ceremony on their running at Haydock back in November in his favour, the stage seems set for Milan Bound here. Closing Ceremony may be the victim of his own consistency now but in an event where not too many are feared, it is possible the handicapper has let Provo in lightly. Despite a fourteen month absence his fitness can be virtually guaranteed from his highly effective yard and he may represent the biggest danger.

2.25: The Denman Chase is not easy to solve. Coneygree jumps well but takes on seasoned chasers for the first time. Taquin Du Seiul has so far failed to make the transition from novice company although with his stable firing on all cylinders again he may prove a different proposition now. However, he has proved expensive to follow and his jumping looked sketchy last time. Houblon Des Obeaux and Unioniste would not normally be thought of as good enough in this grade, but the question remains how good a race this may turn out to be.

3.00: Sire De Grugy’s return may add clicks to the turnstiles but is unlikely to fire up the players. Obviously he is the best in the line-up but the percentage call is to swerve such as he when returning after injury. Those in opposition look well below the level he sets and punters looking for alternatives are not sure to lean in the right direction in any event.

3.35: The market domination by the brace of five-year-olds Calipto and Activial means those in search of value do not have to look far to find it. Calipto has the edge over Activial on last year’s form although Activial did take the eye when third in the Ladbroke. Both have the look of horses saved for this – as does On Tour who has solid form and left the impression after his latest win that he was still potentially ahead of the handicapper. He appeals as the best of a hatful of alternative candidates.

4.10: Kings Palace is presented with little more than a leg-stretching exercise in the novice chase – a race only disaster will prevent him from winning.

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 5th:

3.55: After the Group 1 event for Arab horses and a very tough-looking sprint handicap on turf, the UAE 1000 Guineas looks to rest between Local Time and Ad Idem. Only a short-head separated them last time they met here three weeks ago but this step up in trip looks more likely to suit Local Time, who was finishing strongly then and should confirm the placings over this extra furlong. Yodelling offers a threat of sorts, but on this first try on dirt and against rivals that are match-fit her task looks a stiff one.

5.05: Seasoned campaigner here and last year’s runner-up in this event, Star Empire had a perfect prep-race for this when third to Halfaguinea over an inadequate 1m 2f last time. Good run though that was, it is two years since this nine-year-old got his head in front and for win purposes he looks vulnerable. Last seen when a close third in a Group 2 over an extended two miles in France, there is no doubt about Rio Tigre’s stamina or his ability to handle a fast surface and he would be greatly feared if fully fit. Now locally trained, as there are limited opportunities during the Carnival over this trip, it would be a surprise if he is not capable of doing himself justice. However, a wide draw and his unconvincing jockey are causes for concern, meaning everything will have to fall in place in one neat slice. Famous Kid represents a wealth of untapped talent at this trip. Having finished second last time three weeks ago on dirt in a handicap that is working out, Famous Kid (also out in the best seats) receives plenty of weight and enters the reckoning.

5.40: Last year’s World Cup winner, African Story makes his reappearance here in a race that he failed to win last year when beaten by the enigma that is Prince Bishop. With both resurfacing after lengthy breaks it could be a similar story now. Although apparently the class acts (for all that last year’s World Cup was below standard), neither exactly provides collateral for proposed loans, meaning it may pay to look elsewhere. Frankyfourfingers has a couple of lengths to find on Surfer on their running last time but, unlike the winner that day he was having his first run of the season and improvement, particularly over this extended trip, looks guaranteed. Smart in France, he may reverse places, in which case he is liable to run his higher profile rivals very close.

6.15: Ajeeb steps back up to a much more suitable trip after finishing strongly when a close fourth to Hototo in a five furlong sprint here a month ago. Top weight may not prevent him from scoring. Music Theory may have looked slightly unfortunate when third to Safety Check at the beginning of January, but with the runner only pulling out what is necessary, that run threatens to be deceptive. Our Channel should appreciate this drop in trip after pulling too hard last time – a trait that prevents him from realising his full potential. Cheekpieces may also come to his assistance but he could be a sitting duck for Ajeeb’s turn of foot.

SATURDAY JANUARY 31st:

Sandown: 12.40: Old Guard can be forgiven for a poor run last time at Chepstow when bogged down in Chepstow’s glue. Previously he had looked a smart recruit when beating Karezak at Newbury and that is unquestionably the best form on offer. This small field may suit and he is preferred to French import The Saint James and recent Plumpton winner Pain Au Chocolat.

1.15: Only four turn out for the Listed hurdle but it should prove informative. Garde La Victoire and Jollyallan set a decent standard, whilst leading Triumph Hurdle candidate Bristol De Mai (who will do well to beat his older rivals) cannot be dismissed.

2.25: In what is likely to be a tight Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase, Irish Saint is the one likely to operate best under these conditions. He jumped Ascot without a semblance of a mistake last time and is clearly heading in an upward direction. This trip may be on the sharp side for Champagne West – who looks more of an RSA candidate – whilst although clearly getting to grips with fences, Sandown threatens to expose any weakness in Splash Of Ginge’s as yet far from bombproof jumping. Gitane Du Berlais stuttered round when winning over fences at Limerick and will need to have learnt plenty if she is to beat these rivals. Grumeti is also asked to leap up in class.

3.00: Polamco has the look of a horse saved for this after what may have been a fortunate win last time at Newbury. He will need to improve again to confirm placings with Saffron Wells on revised terms as the handicapper has ensured they are again closely matched. Saffron Wells did travel last time at Kempton but was eventually dismissed by handicap blot Tea For Two. This stiffer track may be in his favour. Junction Fourteen lost no caste in defeat when unable to concede 12lbs to well-handicapped Batavir last time from this mark and looks poised to enter the argument.

MEYDAN THURSDAY JANUARY 29th:

2.45: Not A Given could be well enough in to double up on a recent win over this course, particularly as he returns to a trip at which he excelled in the US.

3.20: With useful form to his credit at Grade 1 level in South Africa, Banaadeer is the potential fly-in-the-ointment here. He could easily outclass these, but on what is his first venture on dirt and with fitness having to be taken on trust, unless the market speaks volumes, he may be best watched for now. A fast-finishing second to Hototo three weeks ago, Fityann should be thereabouts again, but the suspicion is an extra furlong may aid his cause. Speed Hawk and Ahtoug are others to consider.

3.55: Alreef comes out best here, although if prepared to forgive a below-par sixth last time (when Alareef was fourth), Muhtaram would enter the reckoning. However, from a yard whose horses have been slow to swing into action, Alareef may be the better option.

4.30: A close fifth to Belgian Bill in a scrum finish a fortnight ago, Slipper Orchid should be much sharper now. With the re-application of cheekpieces she looks primed to peak, chiefly at the expense of Zurigha.

5.05: Another Party may have been flattered by his recent proximity to Safety Check and in any event faces dirt for the first time – always a concern. A recent fourth to Reynoldthewizard, Muaanid has the best of the weights against several of these (United Color and Russian Soul) and already a winner on this surface in December, this represents an opportunity for him.

5.40: This is crunch time for True Story who returns to the major league after his listed win three weeks ago. A winner first time out here last year, Vercingetorix only lost an unbeaten record in the Dubai Duty Free on World Cup night and proved he could translate Dubai form when a gallant third in the QE II at Sha Tin. A dual Group 1 winner, Vercingetorix is taken to expose any weakness in True Story, who for all his ability and the hint a gelding operation may help him unleash it, was not entirely convincing with his attitude when winning the Singspiel three weeks ago.

6.15: Never in the hunt last week when fifth to Umgiyo, Pilote had earlier run with promise against True Story in the Singspiel and it could be premature to overlook him in this handicap. Any market interest in Italian Oaks runner-up Scighera (last seen nine months ago) should be noted as she enters this handicap from a temptingly attractive mark.

SATURDAY JANUARY 24th:

With the builders taking a day off, amid the iron carcasses comprising the skeleton that will become the new Cheltenham, it is Festival Trials Day. Hopefully the card will provide a ray of light on events scheduled for March on this penultimate Saturday in January…

Events start at 12.40 with the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, for which Peace And Co is presented with the chance to vindicate his market position in the big race itself. It is a chance he should be capable of taking. His solitary outing in this country resulted in a facile success at Doncaster – a race that is sending out mixed messages. However, what is not in doubt is the authority with which he won. Of course we all know soft ground can produce misleading results but Peace And Co could not have been more impressive, recording a fast time in the process. At present only the brave will oppose him. Bivouac is extremely likeable and is improving fast but his unbeaten record is seriously under threat here. Zarib made a pleasing start to his new career at Newbury but faces much sterner opposition now and Ibis Du Rheu is an interesting recruit from France that will almost certainly benefit from the outing after a nine month absence.

1.15: Ned Stark should appreciate this return to handicap company after failing to cope with Ptit Zig and Champagne West here at the turn of the year. That said he appeals as more of a stayer (he was always a stride behind the game last time), meaning three miles may suit better. Stellar Notion may struggle to confirm Kempton running with Generous Ransom over this extended trip. Equipped with cheekpieces and from a stable in form, Generous Ransom represents value in a tricky but not impossible handicap.

1.50: Receiving weight from his rivals, last year’s RSA runner-up Smad Place is greatly favoured by conditions in this. He is now 12lbs better in with Hennessy winner Many Clouds on Newbury running and having travelled strongly for a long way must have a major chance of gaining revenge. We know he stays and that crucially he can handle this undulating track. Many Clouds was brought-down in the RSA but it is fair to say he was struggling at the time and would not have troubled Smad Place at levels. Of course a lot may have tilted in his favour since, but his workmanlike Hennessy win still suggests he is some way off Gold Cup standard. It is hard to foresee last year’s winner The Giant Bolster repeating the dose against this sort of opposition; whilst, although a winner over this trip, the suspicion is that testing ground and a truly run race will test Dynaste to the full. His best form is undoubtedly at shorter. To justify inclusion at this sort of level in the future, Smad Place has to win now and is the logical call.

2.25: The magnet is attracted to Easter Day here, who, if lining up, faces an easier task than that earmarked as his first preference at Doncaster. He jumped well in his comeback effort at Newbury, looking as if he would be sharper for the experience.

3.00: Value At Risk could hardly have made a better start to his hurdling career when skating away with a novice at Newbury. Having already posted definite promise in bumpers, his emphatic success (from moderate opposition it has to be said) only emphasised his potential. A win here will catapult him into the big time but his price already reflects his supposed ability. A return to timber for Present View is not altogether surprising as his jumping over fences is unconvincing, whilst Stiletto, Vago Collonges and Ordo Ab Chao represent untapped talent. Taken at face value Robinsfirth (a good second here last time) would appeal as the each-way alternative in a race likely to be won by Value At Risk but best watched.

3.35: A return to hurdles is likely to suit Saphir Du Rheu who was scaling the heights over timber at a rate of knots this time last year. There will be other days over fences when he is older and wiser; during the interim he can pick up further prize-money over the smaller obstacles. Conditions suit, as do they for Un Temps Pour Tout who is respected and whose presence (despite an absence since last May) is enough to prevent Saphir Du Rheu being nominated as a bet. The penalty threatens to thwart Cole Harden but even so he cannot be discounted.

4.10: Lightentertainment has an attractive profile and runs from a reasonable mark in a tough concluding handicap to the card. The question is whether this return to an extended two miles is ideal for a horse whose best form is over further. This is a race full of unknown quantities and for that reason an early exit from the ring is advised.

MEYDAN JANUARY 22nd

3.20: After the win of Le Bernardin last week, Henry Clay, who was in front of him when they finished second and third to I’m Back here two weeks ago, will be a popular selection now. He may win but Busker, who was fourth is marginally better off at the weights and could prove a serious threat this time. Dragon Falls also showed promise that day so separating the three today is no straightforward matter.

3.55: Assured on the surface and both by dirt stallion Street Cry, Cry Joy and Street Act head the market. The latter was comprehensively beaten by impressive Layl a week ago, whilst Cry Joy is fit from a spin round here three weeks ago. Malekov could be dangerous but his ability to handle this surface is an unknown.

4.30: After finishing third to True Story two weeks ago, attention is focused on Pilote now he is in handicap company. However this is a quality event with several participants on the verge of listed class at least. Umgiyo has acquitted himself in top company in South Africa but for all that, having only ever won a maiden, his claims are somewhat dubious. He could be a horse that runs well in defeat. A winner first time last year (won the Epsom Derby Trial) Our Channel is not very big and does not take much getting fit. Closely matched with Steeler on Betfred running at Goodwood (when too much use was made of him) this trip should be ideal and he is the selection.

5.05: Something of a leap of faith is required to side with Tamarkuz here as he is his own worst enemy at the stalls. He made life next to impossible last time when a fast closing runner-up to hat-trick seeking Faulkener and if he breaks on terms today he should account for these rivals. Chief danger is infrequent winner Haatheq (carries the first colours) but this is Tamarkuz’s race to lose.

5.40: Although upped in grade, Safety Check won with plenty to spare last time (hardly blowing a candle out in the unsaddling enclosure) and looking as if had plenty more to offer. He looks ready for this step up in grade. The Mike De Kock pair, Red Ray and Anaerobio have obvious claims at this level but their fitness has to be of concern.

SATURDAY JANUARY 16th:

One way or another racing looks assured to make the headlines after Saturday. Direct from intensive care, the participation of Sprinter Sacre in the Sodexo Clarence House Chase at Ascot means he will become Lazarus if he succeeds; a bloodied Lord Raglan from the Charge of the Light Brigade who was sent over the top once too often if not.

It’s not the task presented by the race itself that is forbidding (this would have been well within Sprinter Sacre’s remit some fifteen months ago and seen as a stepping stone to further glory), more that as a general rule, rather like humans, racehorses have a limited shelf life at the highest level. Therefore there is a train of thought that assumes after a heart murmur and a spell in the cardiac arrest unit, Sprinter Sacre is unlikely to leap directly from an ambulance and return with victory in a Grade 1.

His participation means racing will hold its breath for the four minutes or so it will take to run the event at 3.00. One of the best trainers of jumpers ever seen, Nicky Henderson has deliberated hard and long and now seems committed to run. Feeling his charge is back to his brilliant best he really has no alternative. And before any post mortem demands the trainer’s incarceration in a Turkish jail if it goes wrong, let’s be clear. The alternative to running Sprinter Sacre would be to retire him to a pasture without ever knowing if his departure from the routine he is used to and thrives upon was premature. Unfortunately we cannot list the power of speech amongst Sprinter Sacre’s many attributes; therefore the decision to race has been made on his behalf. Such a decision is fraught with danger but, partnered by one of the most sensitive jockeys currently riding and owned by people that know a thing or two about horses, he is in good hands. We wish him well…
Grey Gold and Somersby are unlikely to cash in on any possible misfire suffered by Sprinter Sacre. Dodging Bullets and Twinlight look the serious alternatives, but neither would be capable of toppling a Sprinter Sacre that was back on song.

With two highly promising novices waiting in the wings in the shape of Top Notch in the 12.40 and Out Sam in the 4.05 on the same Ascot card, not to mention Lyvius – who is not without a chance in the Grade 2 handicap hurdle at 2.25 – it is a big day for team Henderson. The first two mentioned ought to win without too much bother, although they are priced accordingly.

On the face of it with only four in the handicap proper, the 2.25 looks like a punter-friendly event. Garde La Victoire has already astounded this season when winning the Greatwood on this sort of ground from a stiff weight. A close fifth in the Ladbroke from top weight reinforced the notion he could not easily be dismissed in this sort of company. However, again he has to concede lumps to Lyvius, French import Willem and recent Sandown winner Rayvin Black, to whom, allowing for his rider’s claim, Garde Le Victoire has to give the thick end of two stone. Should he succeed it will be a performance out of the top drawer.

Haydock is hanging on to a decent fixture by its fingertips. An unfavourable weather forecast means even if racing takes place events may be unpredictable. Obviously The New One ought to oblige, but investment in the American dollar against the euro seems a safer alternative. Assuming he can put an unfortunate unseat behind him, Carraig Mor threatens to be too good for his opponents in the 2.40, but again makes limited betting appeal.

So, from this prospective it looks like a mid-season Saturday to observe through the shutters of winter. Barring actually paying the entrance fee at Ascot’s turnstiles, this way, as they haven’t yet figured out a way to charge us to watch, it should at least cost nothing.

THURSDAY JANUARY 15th:

Meydan: With a largely untried cast, it’s a day of conjecture in the desert…
2.45: Run on dirt and featuring contenders from three different countries, the UAE 1000 Guineas Trial plunges us into the dark. Ad Idem is obviously a leading contender for Mike De Kock, whilst Local Time looks the Godolphin pick on jockey bookings but has yet to race on this surface. Good Place ran to a similar level to her stable mate last season and being by Street Cry should not be inconvenienced by a surface both fillies are sure to have experienced in workouts. Kempton winner Comedy Queen (by dirt stallion Distorted Humour) completes a powerful hand for Godolphin in a race where clues seem essential.

3.20: Fit from a recent run at Lingfield and with form here and on dirt, there is every reason to expect a bold run from Energia Davos in this tight handicap. Le Bernardin will find this a tougher assignment than last week’s when he was third to I’m Back. With the right pedigree for dirt Famous Kid could be dangerous, as could be Pinzolo if handling dirt. Representing strong local form Storm Belt is another worthy of consideration.

3.55: Knavery, Simon Chrisford’s first runner as a trainer, looks the part here but has yet to race on dirt.

4.30: The UAE 2000 Guineas Trial is another event that poses more questions than it answers. Fifth in the Dewhurst and by Hard Spun, the jury is out on Maftool on this surface. A close up third in the Cornwallis, Volatile should be suited by this step up in trip but again has to prove he can cope with dirt, as does the Dundalk winner Unorthodox. Zephuros is another interesting contender on his first attempt on this surface, whilst the ex-Argentinian Ajwad – now with Mike De Kock – is another wild card that handles the surface but has to prove he is up to this class.

5.05: With favourable draws to assist, this could rest between Haafaguinea (good form here) and Mr Pommeroy (sold from France for a quarter of a million euros to a stable with an expanding record in the UAE).

5.40: Ticking the majority of boxes, Muarrab will be hard to beat here. A recent win at Jebel Ali was boosted by the recent run of Fityaan – who finished third that day. An improving Muarrab is closely matched with what is perceived as the main danger, United Color, and both line up fit after recent runs. They threaten to dominate this event with preference accorded to Muarrab.

6.15: Whatever his fate in this competitive handicap, as he is likely to need this his first run for almost a year, and representing a yard that is yet to crank up its strike rate, Captain Lars (not favourably drawn) looks a sure-fire future contender at this level before long. Progressive in South Africa last year, despite the negatives he could still prove too good.

SATURDAY JANUARY 10th:

A hostile weather forecast means it is a case of fingers crossed for Saturday’s programmes. With the threat of gale force winds – even snow in places – whatever transpires, an ability to cope with soft bordering on heavy ground would seem essential for those in search of prize-money at the two big venues.
Kempton: 1.00: In the belief that Cold March will have no problems with his obstacles (has fallen twice in the last six outings), he is nominated as the likely winner here. Following a silly error at the first on his British debut, he jumped soundly last time at Ascot when third to Dance Floor King. In the light of the winner’s close third last weekend at Sandown that form looks sufficiently solid to carry him close now, and this step up in trip should be in his favour.

2.40: The Lanzarote Hurdle over 2m 5f will provide a stiff test, one that may prove the undoing of several. A winner over this trip, Saffron Wells makes plenty of appeal in a handicap that may not be as desperately difficult to win as the numbers suggest. He was a good third to Polamco and Morito Du Berlais over this distance at Newbury in December after a two month spell on the sidelines – a run that needs little improving upon in this company from only a 1lb higher mark. His last three well-spaced out efforts all hint at a progressive profile and he is nominated as the value bet now.

Warwick: 1.55: Now stepped up to three miles over fences for the first time and receiving weight all round, former long distance hurdler Mickie is the suggestion here. If she is to reach a similar level over fences to that shown over timber, this could be her day to do so.

3.00: Shantou Bob is hard to get away from in this Grade 2; all things being equal he should get back on the winning trail. However, he faces several likely opponents that may have plenty more to offer; chief amongst these could be Ballagh who shaped well on his hurdling debut at Newbury when second to Different Gravey. It could be argued it is plenty soon enough to hurl him into this sort of company – one can only hope his stable has not jumped the proverbial gun. If not he can follow the market-leader home and may prove to be the value alternative at his likely odds.

SATURDAY JANUARY 3rd:

Sandown: 12.40: With an 8lbs differential it is not easy to separate Fighting Fifth runner-up Aurore D’Estruval and the useful Mischievous Milly. Both seem to have run to a similar level of form; and whilst we know Mischievous Milly stays, the drawback is she has not run this season. It seems reasonable to assume Aurore D’Estruval will get this trip, but you never fully know until they have done it. Therefore, although she appears to have the edge, which is albeit a narrow one, considering her price she looks a resistible betting proposition.

1.50: Mr Mole is only a begrudging tip here. Whilst entitled to confirm Exeter form with Brick Red, given he has an issue or two that is not certain. The inclusion of William’s Wishes – who may have been flattered last time in the Tingle Creek but who is still a decent performer at this level – means the percentage is to leave the race alone.

2.25: Once again we are faced with a disappointing turnout for a Grade 1. Regrettably it is only a matter of time before the authorities (whoever they might be these days!) take action to divert valuable prize-money away from conditions events that are under-subscribed at this time of year. Having looked smart in his two starts for Nicky Henderson, it looks likely that L’Ami Serge will successfully take this step to the top level at short odds.

3.00: Even with the assistance of his rider’s claim and the 12lbs WFA allowance, Bouvreuil faces a stiff task here for a four-year-old that will still be biologically three. We are largely guessing but unless the bush telegraph is beating his name throughout the village in a major way come race time, the inclination is to oppose him. After two excellent recent runs (a close third to Chesterfield reads well) Song Light has the look of a horse heading in the right direction. His rider’s claim (won on him last time) puts him at the right end of the handicap and means he receives in excess of a stone from Amore Alato, who looks something of a sitting duck from his current mark.

THURSDAY JANUARY 1ST:

Cheltenham: A new year kicks off with a very competitive novice hurdle at 12.10. It is entirely possible that at least one of these participants will be back here in ten weeks (yes, that’s all it is!) for the Festival. Brother Tedd and Zeroshadesofgrey face much more serious opposition than they have met so far on their way to chalking up impressive victories. As a result it is largely guesswork how they will fare now. At least the Newbury win of Different Gravey has a solid look to it, meaning he could be the sort to live up to an ambitious name. Days Of Heaven went on to win next time from that event and Seven Nation Army, who was fourth, went on to run Clean Sheet close on Monday. Thomas Brown heads the second wave but they have plenty to find. Although there will be other days, there was a lot to like about Different Gravey last time.

12.45: This looks like an event to file in the “too difficult” category. Cases can be made for several but they hardly look watertight. There should be little between Saint Are and Alfie Spinner on Becher Chase form when they finished third and fourth. Not for the first time Our Father ran like a non-stayer at Aintree and it is surprising that connections are persevering with him in an event that places such an emphasis on stamina. Of those to re-emerge from Liverpool, marginal preference is for last year’s runner-up in this Alfie Spinner, but he is vulnerable. Despite advancing years, Charingworth, who runs this track well, cannot be confidently ruled out. It is possible this marathon trip and the 5lbs claimed by the excellent Ryan Hatch will be responsible for Hollow Blue Sky figuring, whilst if in the same form that saw him skate away with a Ffos Las chase last time on only his second appearance over fences, despite a hefty weight rise, Cadeau George could be too good for some dyed-in-the-wool chasers who regularly play last-man-standing in this sort of event.

1.20: With the highly promising Ned Stark in this line-up, it could be a mistake to assume this Grade 2 chase rests between Ptit Zig and Champagne West. Ptit Zig certainly looks a worthy favourite judged on a proficient round of jumping at Ascot last time and he does possess a turn of foot that could settle the issue in the closing stages. A high class hurdler and the youngest in the field, he looks a top prospect that should take this stepping stone to the Festival in his stride. Champagne West was never in a satisfactory rhythm last time (connections blamed holding ground) but cannot afford to be out of kilter against rivals of this calibre. Ned Stark will probably need to get lucky to win here as his future looks to lie over further. Even so he has created a positive impression on his two runs over fences to date and, a safe jumper, will pick up any scraps left in his path.

1.55: Having won the Paddy Power here in November, Caid Du Berlais jumped sketchily from his revised mark next time before slithering to a full stop at the tenth. It is hard to be positive now. It is possible Splash Of Ginge may at last realise his potential over this sphere, whilst Dineur and Baileys Concerto (same horse on recent Aintree running) also have chances. Hunt Ball would not entirely surprise at a big price although the handicapper probably needs to relent a little these days. Even so he was not disgraced last time when faced with a very stiff task at Aintree.

2.30: Ulzana’s Raid and Sybarite are difficult to split after their running here last time, although Ryan Hatch’s 5lb claim could be the clincher in favour of Sybarite. However, they appear to have been patient with Knight Of Noir who ran to a similar level here last time when only just beaten by the useful Morito Du Berlais – to whom he was attempting to concede 15lbs. Such patience could pay dividends now. This step up in trip should not inconvenience Knight Of Noir who is taken to come out on top here and seen as the best betting opportunity on a tough betting card. Southfield Vic – who is stepping out of novice company big time here – will need to be pretty smart to foil this opposition.

3.05: The penalty combined with a nine month absence threatens to thwart Beat That who will nevertheless be the focus of interest here. Ready Relkeel winner Rock On Ruby will need to be at the top of his game to successfully concede 8lbs to Vaniteux, for whom a return to this extended trip promises to be in his favour.