February Results 2014

Posted on by Bryle

February 22nd:

Kempton Results

A good jumping card here got down to serious business with the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle. Second to Calipto at Newbury, Activial, a good-sized juvenile, jumped well and moved strongly throughout. He won with a little in hand and is likely to renew rivalry with Calipto in the Triumph.

Blinkered for the first time, Commissioned came with a chance at the last but veered left and right on the run-in. He was held anyway and his jumping was not slick enough to suggest he can go up a grade. The two French imports now with Paul Nicholls, Solar Impulse and Alcala, were next to finish. Goodwood Mirage once again ran a strange race. It looks as if this is not his game and his stable would be advised to concentrate on an early season Flat handicap.

Superior jumping gained the day for Balder Succes who supplemented his recent Warwick win in the Grade 2 Pendil Novice Chase over two-and-a-half. Quick and athletic, he is not over-big but what he lacks in size he makes up for in neatness. He will wisely miss Cheltenham, taking in Aintree instead – a track that should suit him much better.

The third of the consecutive Grade 2s, the Dovecote Hurdle, featured the return of unbeaten Irving – twice an Ascot scorer this term. In winning his fourth hurdle off the bounce he was impressive. Always travelling, he cruised throughout and despite stepping at the last, was too good for the opposition.

Considering his trainer feels this run will blow the cobwebs away, Irving will surely be hard to beat in the Supreme. Amore Alato stayed on for second with Cup Final a looked-after third in ground that was too testing for him. This was only his second run over hurdles and he is one to note, possibly over two-and-half.

What used to be the Racing Post Chase and is now the BetBright Chase was claimed by Bally Legend, a winner of a N H Flat race last time. Apparently he likes the track.

His success reduced his trainer to tears and possibly one or two punters as well. Bury Parade (best form on right-handed tracks) bravely attempted to defy top weight in second. A 9lbs rise since Ascot and presumably another few pounds after this will make life tough in future. Tour Des Champs, who made much of the running, kept on for third.

Full Shift was a comfortable winner of the Class 3 handicap hurdle from a mark of 124. This was not a strong race so whilst the winner looked good today and may be decent in time, a Cheltenham pop would probably be asking too much at present.

Lingfield Results

The Listed sprint was a hot affair. Tarooq roared back to form on his first run since December, wearing down Rivellino with a fast-finishing Hoof It looking unlucky in third. Iptisam ran above himself in fourth, as did Rummaging in fifth.

Victim of a wide draw, he made up a great deal of ground in the straight. Last at one point, he has confirmed the impression that even at the age of six he is on the upgrade. He has a good record on Polytrack (won three times at Dundalk last year) and can build on this next time. A seventh furlong should not pose a problem.

Grandeur duly won the Winter Derby Trial – as he was entitled to do – against inferior rivals and over his optimum trip. One assumes he will be targeted for the Winter Derby itself before resuming globetrotting activities later in the season. Modernstone was a strong finisher in second in a race where many failed to see out the trip. Most notable amongst these was Anaconda, who made the running but quickly retreated.

February 27th:

Meydan Results

Current form with Zahee and Eastern Rules was crucial in the opening handicap over seven furlongs. Despite having not won for nearly three years, Gold City had split Zahee and Eastern Rules last time and as a result had a marginal weight pull over his main danger My Freedom. Looking a bit rickety, Gold City grabbed the lead early in the straight and quickened away. They were even more rickety in behind. My Freedom took a while to settle and eventually plugged on for second. Kanaf found this much harder than his recent encounters in Jebel Ali, whilst Modern History faded quickly.

In terrific form at present, Medicean Man defied the step up to an extra furlong and a return to synthetics to take the handicap. He was able to pick off his rivals one by one, once again showing a terrific attitude. Rated 7lbs lower on Tapeta than he is on turf, obviously he will be raised as a result of this but may not have stopped winning yet. That said, these sprints are easy pickings at present; they will become harder once the Americans arrive. Racy finished strongly for second although he never threatened to get to grips with the winner. Conveyance has run well enough on his reappearance after almost three years. It remains to be seen if he can back it up. Merhee was once again outpaced. He looks like he is crying out for further.

With Wednaan a virtual non-runner in the Listed (punters still did their money) it was left to My Catch to pick up the pieces. Jallota made up a lot of ground to finish second with Najm Suhail in third. Frankly there is little to draw from this fairly ordinary event except to lament over the apparent fact that Wednaan is unlikely to build on earlier promise after a lack-lustre display that suggested something is adrift.

It was plain sailing for Ihtimal in the UAE Oaks. Having already beaten her main rivals in the Guineas, only the step up in trip to ten furlongs threatened to pose a problem. As it was she was even more impressive this time round. Always cruising she took herself to the front early in the straight and, relishing the surface and stretching right away, was soon clear. She is not far behind the best on offer in this country and now she has proved her stamina her options have been enlarged. Feedyah was once again overwhelmed by the winner’s superior turn of foot but finished an honourable second.
The Group 2 Zabeel Mile keyed up a fascinating clash between Mushreq and Mshawish, both of whom could be expected to improve on their latest runs. Mushreq had been unlucky and Mshawish was a staying on second over an inadequate seven furlongs. With form at Group 1 level in Europe last year, Mshawish was always handy and in a tactical event, made a race-winning move early in the straight which had his rivals toiling. Last year’s winner Trade Storm cut through the pack for second with Mushreq a somewhat tame third.

Tha’ir gained an overdue success in the concluding handicap over 1m 3f against some ragged opposition. Chief amongst these is the bitter disappointment that is Winterlude. He ran no better here than last time when those that kept the faith reached for an expensive bucket of excuses.
February 20th: Meydan:

Granted a 2lbs pull for a length with Zahee on the running in January, Eastern Rules made up the deficit with change in the opening handicap over seven furlongs on turf.

After a cracking effort two weeks ago in a Group 2, Zahee was preferred in the market but despite holding every chance, the strong home run of Eastern Rules was decisive. The win of Eastern Rules was a belated pointer to Mustaheel in the next. Sommerabend narrowly deprived Zahee of second in the last few strides.

It was back to Tapeta for the following handicap – a competitive affair over a mile. The result was something of a shock when ex-Norwegian candidate Avon Pearl emerged best of a final furlong scramble.

Van Rooney chased him home ahead of Ocean Tempest. Mustaheel was never able to negate a wide berth so under the circumstances did well enough in fourth. He needs a change of luck if he is to defy the handicapper.

Intrigo was not disgraced in fifth. Next we come to a catalogue of excuses. Despite his bad draw, String Theory was given every chance when bagging the inner but faded in the straight. In behind were some moody customers who didn’t need too many excuses to down tools. After promise last time, Dragon Falls fluffed the start and when making headway in the straight was badly impeded just as he looked likely to stake a serious claim despite having experienced a rougher passage than a traveller in third-class on an African train. If we could take this at face value he would be worth backing next time; but he may not be straightforward. This was a little too much like hard work for Master Of War and Tales Of Grimm, both of whom were happy to sulk off the pace and stay there.

The sprinters on turf were next up. Medicean Man gained compensation for a narrow defeat three weeks ago, shaking off a strong finishing Ahtoug and Hototo. The winner, now an eight-year-old, is a thoroughly genuine and consistent individual that can never be dismissed at this level and against the sort of tricksters he faced here.

Prix de l’Abbaye runner-up Catcall pulled too hard and was unable to make an impact from top weight.
Abstraction was another that did too much early and, having zigzagged across the course last time and burnt himself out this, as suspected, he looks one to avoid.

Unbeaten after five runs on a synthetic surface going into this, Cat O’Mountain was touted as a possible for the World Cup after a point blank victory in January that has worked out well. Raised 13lbs as a result and drawn wide, nothing short of an improved performance would do if he were to succeed in his toughest task to date.

Posted wide throughout in the hands of Barzalona, who, presumably banking on his mount’s superiority to get him out of trouble, made no attempt to obtain cover, Cat O’Mountain made some headway down the straight but was quickly beaten. Barzalona simply does not understand the gravity of giving away ground round here. Cat O’Mountain did finish tamely (Storm Cat on the distaff side is invariably cause for concern) and the bubble has burst, but he needed to have been at least 7lbs better than the opposition to have won here given the way he was ridden.

You simply cannot afford to forfeit this kind of ground in big field handicaps. Hampered behind Vercingetorix last week and second in the UAE Derby last year, Elleval was a somewhat surprising if not a head-scratching winner. Start Right and Plantagenet were next to finish. After promise last time, Steeler was soon beaten after showing up prominently until the last furlong.

On a day when what was expected to happen failed to pan out, Certify added her name to the roll of dishonour in the Balanchine. The first signs were posted when she became fizzy at the start.

Blindfolded to load, once again, in a small field and drawn low, she worked her way to the outside, from where Barzalona allowed her to swing wide. It probably made no difference as she did not travel with the same ease as we saw last time, but it was certainly of no help. It would be easy to blame the trip, but the pace was slow early and Certify was never doing enough to get to grips with the leaders when it mattered. So the World Cup dream has sunk into the sand. Having looked like a possible serious contender on her reappearance, now the unbeaten run has been smashed, it would seem she will not be asked to race beyond a mile. No doubt she will be aimed at events like the Falmouth at Newmarket in July, but those that witnessed her run here will be in no hurry to entrust her with their money. L’amour De Ma Vie, second to Certify over a mile last time, was always handy and stayed this trip well, seeing out her race to the line from Flotilla and Pearl Of Africa with the disappointing Certify only fourth.

On a horror show of a day for punters, Mujaarib became another victim of mission impossible when stone last early in a slowly run listed over 1m 2f.

When he did find his stride, he made ground hand-over-fist on the wide outside but the race was over as Tasaday had secured first run. The winner is a fair filly (was second in the Prix de l’Opera last year) and the runner-up, Empoli, has decent international form to his credit. Mujaarib was arguably the moral winner and is worth another chance.

February 15th:

Haydock Racing

Well-backed Aurore D’Estruval travelled like the winner in the Victor Ludorum for most of the way, but in very deep ground she was unable to upstage the game pacemaker Abracadabra Sivola. It is unlikely we saw Cheltenham clues here but the first two did pull well clear.

Recent Musselburgh winner Seeyouatmidnight maintained an unbeaten hurdles record in the Grade 2 hurdle. He made all and kept finding in the face of a persistent challenge from Mickie over the last two flights. Running too freely and saddled with a maximum penalty, Celestial Halo, was never in contention in third. The winner does not have a Cheltenham engagement. Sensibly, his trainer is in no hurry to over-face him but an Aintree tilt is a possibility.

One-by-one they dropped away in the Grade 3 Grand National trial, won by Rigadin De Beauchene, who was second in this race last year. In an out-and-out slog they finished very tired. It looked as if Our Father, who came home on legs of rubber, failed to stay.

The Grade 2 hurdle over three miles found out many of the runners in what developed into a chapter of incident. Wuff was never going from flight one. Straidnahanna was pulled-up in the straight when beaten. Oscar Rock put up a laboured effort, eventually finishing a distant third to the mare, the improving Toubeera.

Ascot Racing

After failing to light any fires at Haydock on debut in this country, the expensive Un Temps Por Tout looked more at home over 2m 3f in the heavy and was able to dot up. The opposition was hardly testing but this was a step in the right direction and it now seems two miles is too sharp.

In what was a Grand National trial, Restless Harry landed a big prize at the expense of Teaforthree, who had looked the winner for most of the way. Having jumped impeccably throughout, a minor mistake four out knocked him out of stride and probably cost him the contest. Highland Lodge was too keen early and predictably failed to finish. For the prize-money on offer, this was not a strong race.

The Group 2 RSA Trial featured at least two credible Cheltenham contenders beforehand, although both were beaten. Second here in December and then a bitter disappointment at Haydock, O’ Faolians Boy returned to form when nudging aside his better fancied rivals. Many Clouds jumped well and plugged on but lacked the finishing kick. He was attempting to concede 4lbs to the winner, but that was not his undoing.

Lightly-framed Gevrey Chambertin – the chalk to the cheese that is Many Clouds – set off in front on this his first outing over fences, jumping well. The way he failed to finish will have disappointed his supporters. It is hard to blame the trip.

At Wincanton, a confidently-ridden Melodic Rendezvous got the better of Zarkandar in the Kingwell, thus keeping the Cheltenham dream alive for connections.

February 13th:

Meydan Racing

It was all Winterlude in the market for the opening handicap. Unbeaten in two attempts on an artificial surface, he was returning to action after four months absence.

Current form held sway with Sanshaawes (fourth to Gabrial last time) always handy and able to poach a handy advantage early in the straight. As was the case last time, he was awash in the preliminaries, but it does not seem to affect his racing. They dived for the line in behind – Storm Belt clinging on for second ahead of Energia Davos (third to the interesting prospect Cat O’Mountain). Winterlude stayed on down the straight but as it turned out was given too much to do. A step up to a mile-and-a-half might suit him better, but on this evidence he is no better than his current rating
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After Iktimal’s success in the UAE 1,000 last week, Godolphin was mob-handed in the colts’ equivalent, won last year by Soft Falling Rain.

As well as Safety Check and Emirates Flyer, they introduced two four-year-olds with solid Australian form in Long John and Paximadia. Blinkered for the first time and posted wide in the race, class allowed Long John to sweep past his rivals on the turn and quickly put the race beyond recall.

They weren’t bad horses in behind, but he was a lot better. In a separate race for places, solid yardstick Emirates Flyer was second ahead of staying on Yarmouth winner Wednaan. Another with rateable form, Safety Check was fourth. Asmar was not disgraced against more experienced rivals. The winner is now apparently to step up in distance to contest the UAE Derby, for which he is likely to be favourite.

The following handicap presented the South African Vercingetorix with a chance to extend an unbeaten run of four. As a Grade 1 winner in his home country, the race largely revolved around him. A mark of 108 offered an opportunity which he took.

Perfectly handled by Soumillon (rides this track as well as anyone), he was possibly in front longer than ideal and, although his jockey had to roust him in the last furlong, he did enough to hang on. Nine furlongs may be the absolute ceiling as far as stamina is concerned.

In second, a closing Code Of Honor posted fair warning that he should have his day here before too long. It was a case of what-you-see-is what-you-get with the rest. In fourth, hold-up horse Gabrial weaved his way through without every looking likely to throw his hat in the ring.

The international theme continued in the Group 3 over a mile. Once again it was the South African representative that attracted all the market support. Variety Club, a six-year-old with a prolific winning record at the highest grade in his home country, was expected to follow up on Vercingetox’s win.

He kept the action bubbling with a demolition job. In front a long way from home, he was going away pleasingly in the last furlong and looks another to note for next time.

In second, Haatheq brought a decent level of form to the contest. Although racing over an inadequate trip, it would have been nice to see Mars show a bit of encouragement. Arguably an under-achiever last year with the O’Brien team – but in the highest grade – he dropped away tamely and underlined the difficulty of attempting to pick up the pieces with ex-Ballydoyle inmates.

The Group 3 sprint over six furlongs turned out to be a messy affair. In the dash to the line it was a case of last man standing. Russian Soul got the breaks and exacted revenge on United Color for defeat last time. United Color got no run up the inner, which did not help but saying it cost him the race would be a brave call. Despite his form looking decidedly shaky, Jamsie ran well but his presence throws something of a doubt of the validity of this as an event we can refer back to.

A cracking day concluded with the Class 1 handicap that, with the inclusion of Meandre, Sheikhzayedroad and Dabadiyan, looked a good quality race.

Songcraft, not always one to rely on, ran over the top of them all. He did look extra special well. With a record of performing best fresh, it may be this will not be repeated. At the age of six, Meandre made a brave effort in second. He does carry his head awkwardly these days and, with this being on recently freshened turf from overnight rain, again he may struggle next time when it rides faster. Sheikhzayedroad – currently in fighting form – made up plenty of ground from the rear to finish third. Dabadiyan ran to form in fourth.

Saturday February 8th:

Newbury Racing Results

Although odds-on, the victory of Calipto in the Grade 3 novice hurdle should not be underplayed.

As a four-year-old, he was effectively conceding 10lbs to his older rivals. These included third-placed Seedling, who had displayed promise last time over this course. Calipto jumped soundly and was entitled to finish tired. Even so, he ran to the line and looks a serious Triumph Hurdle contender.

As expected, stamina won the day in the Denman Chase. Harry Topper quickened (if that is the right expression in this ground) at the turn to draw clear. A touch slow, he jumps, stays and soft ground suits.

Not for the first time Al Ferof left the impression three miles is not his best trip. He plugged on better than a disappointing Katenko, who was beaten in a stride, but is surely better over two-and-a-half.

With experience against established chasers outside novice company, Module outstayed and outgunned his three rivals in the Grade 2.

Raya Star was erratic at his fences and Desert Cry never went a yard. Module jumped well but Dodging Bullets looked all set to draw clear when cruising into the lead at the last. To an extent he curled on the run-in. In view of the fact he had done everything right, the fact the runner-up was unable to finish off his race was disappointing. Module is likeable, but possibly not good enough to win an Arkle.

Just when you thought it was safe…along comes Splash Of Ginge in the Betfair Hurdle to put bookmakers back in the game.

Light weights held the call with the well handicapped Irish Saint doing best of those at the head of the handicap. Running from a 5lbs penalty – putting him 7lbs well-in according to the handicapper – on this evidence it will be hard for him when his new rating kicks in.

Of the beaten horses, Dell ‘Arca and Cheltenian did enough to suggest there will be other days. Alaivan made up a great deal of ground to finish as well as anything.

Warwick Racing Results

Glens Melody and Mischievous Milly renewed rivalry under the same terms in the listed mares’ event, with the same result. Although Mischievous Milly made a brave attempt, Glens Melody jumped much the better (except for at the second-last where a mistake gave the runner-up a second chance) and, despite the narrow margin, looks the better mare.

Although unlikely to win an Arkle, Balder Succes is surely not too far away from that standard, particularly given his style of jumping. A neat athletic sort that is nimble over his fences, although his shortcomings were exposed at Sandown behind Hinterland, he beat a fair yardstick in Brick Red here.
February 6th:

Meydan Results

Third to Zahee last week, Eastern Rules toughed it out in a typically tight Meydan handicap finish.

Mustaheel flashed home fast and last from out wide and could be considered unlucky in second. My Freedom ran roughly up to his present rating, whereas Master Of War, who was under pressure for some way, eventually saw out his race in fourth. Alnashmy was fifth after holding every chance throughout.

It is debatable how good the Class 1 Classic Trail over seven furlongs was. After two runs at Kempton, including a seven length victory in his maiden, well-touted Pretend was the market order.

Although he looks the part in his slower paces, he pulled hard early and failed to finish, ending up like a horse that wants dropping in trip or that is possibly not right. Whatever they do, they will need to teach him how to settle if he is to progress. He’s No Saint, a winner of a Dundalk maiden last year, came out best in a bunch finish.

The Listed 1,000 Guineas was a much better contest – Godolphin fielding the first two in the betting with recent winner Wedding Ring and Iktimal, who had the better domestic form, and was having her first outing on Tapeta and in Meydan.

Word had it Iktimal had settled well in Dubai and victory was expected. A compact filly, she was on her toes at the start and a little warm. She almost missed the break and then, slow to settle, sacrificed her position, meaning she had to race wide. As we saw last year, she has a turn of foot, which got her out of trouble. She was able to finish nicely on top of Mensoora, who was soundly beaten by the impressive Certify last week. Wedding Ring, who had a similar passage to the winner, lacked her change of pace and could only plug on in the straight for fourth.

Excellent Result and Certerach, closely matched on their running last time, fought out the finish of the 1m 6f handicap with the gallant Star Empire (last year’s winner) a close third. This was Star Empire’s opportunity after an eye-catching prep-run, but the slow early gallop failed to play to his strengths. He is handicapped to the hilt.

The Al Maktoum Challenge (Group 2) was the quality affair of the night. Not seen since fifth in last year’s World Cup, African Story was favourite, facing several interesting contenders that may have other targets in their sights.

In the event, finishing strongly from out of the clouds, African Story looked unlucky, closing down Prince Bishop with every stride. Prince Bishop was enterprisingly handled by Keiren Fallon, who had him handily placed before kicking clear.

Of the rest, Zambucca and Zahee ran above themselves for third and fourth; Dunaden, over an inadequate trip, finished strongly and will be much sharper next time. He is no back number. This is often the place to be teased by horses of yesteryear.

Having travelled kindly until the turn, Battle Of Marengo proved a damp squib, leaving the impression the boys from Ballydoyle knew what they were doing when they sold him. Heavy Metal only improved marginally from last time.

Mont Ras just lasted in the face of a strong last furlong challenge from El Estruendoso in the concluding handicap.

February 1st:

Ffos Las results

Up 28lbs since initiating his hat-trick at Sandown, Saphir Du Rheu took another step up the ladder with success in the limited hurdle that is the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

It was tight with Whisper, who had a 21lbs pull with the winner for a nine-length beating at Sandown. Arguably, but for a blip at the last, he would have won, but Saphir Du Rheu is all quality and kept on strongly having made every yard of the running in very soft ground.

Rated 158 for this (presumably at least 164 for the future), handicaps are surely out for the winner now. Only five, his trainer is understandably enthusiastic about Saphir Du Rheu’s chasing prospects, claiming that remains the priority. Even so, he would be an able deputy for Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle if so required.

Sandown Results

Barry Geraghty’s perseverance paid off in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles chase as he held Oscar Whisky together in spite of an unconvincing round of jumping. This was Oscar Whisky’s third win over fences.

With only two rivals against him – one of whom, Benvolio, was quickly beaten – at odds of 1/6 he laboured to master Manyriverstocross; although he was on top in the end despite finishing all-out. This sheds little light on the winner’s prospects for Cheltenham. It may be worth pointing out that Oscar Whisky’s runs over fences have so far been in small fields.

The day’s racing did not consist of just two races. However, the cards largely consisted of racing for racing’s sake and little else of note was seen.
January 30th:

Meydan Results

Saudi Arabian mare Alsaaeqah sprang a surprise in the opening handicap over five furlongs. Delivered late, she came out best with a tight chasing pack snapping at her heels.

Of these, Medicean Man was a fast-closing third, and possibly a touch unlucky.

Abstraction appears to have run a blinder in fourth on this his first start of the campaign. With a marked splayed action he doesn’t look the soundest of animals. He jinked across the course in the final furlong. If he can be relied upon to reproduce this run, he would be of interest next time. The kinder Tapeta surface might suit him better.

Of the rest, Ahtoug was given too much to do. He did make up ground without being able to get to grips with the principals. Merhee – a winner over a mile in South Africa – was never able to challenge over this minimum trip.

The following handicap over nine furlongs did not look one of the stronger events staged here. Ottoman Empire enjoyed the best run and it helped in a tight finish as String Theory launched the most serious challenge from slightly wider out. Mullen on the winner and Dettori on the second rode this track as it needs to be ridden.

Conversely, Barzalona – not for the first time – threw his chance away on Intrigo, sacrificing his position early and forcing his mount to cover unnecessary extra ground.

They chose the Group 2 Cape Verdi for the comeback of unbeaten Certify, who had such a lucrative juvenile career (when she beat Sky Lantern amongst others), before the debacle that was the doping scandal that ruled her out of her second season. She retained her record under a confident ride, cruising up to the pace on the outside of the field.

L’Amour De Ma Vie was the only one to give her a race in second. Pearl Of Africa was best of the rest. Shuruq (yet to win on turf) and Flotilla (last year’s French 1,000 winner but a disappointment since and again today) put up little resistance. Mensoora was also well beaten. Certify looks back on-song and will be hard to beat next time – presumably in the Balanchine.

On a mixed card quality-wise, Zahee was too good for his rivals in the seven furlong handicap. This was a typical Meydan handicap field, consisting of lights of yesteryear and largely inconsistent or unwilling participants. The winner has the ability but his attitude leaves plenty to be desired. All credit to Soumillon for coaxing this horse home.

The Group 2 Al Rashidiya on turf promised to be a class event. After a false start, in a last furlong scramble Mujaarib stole the race from Mushreq in the dying stages. Normally something of a guide for the Duty Free, it would be a surprise if that was the case this year.

Maputo and Steeler ran okay races; Trade Storm, after a slow start, was chopped for room on the inner and can do better.

Saxo Jack rounded off the night in the handicap, beating Halfaguinea, who was flattered by his proximity to easy winner Cat O’ Mountain last time, but has nevertheless endorses the validity of that form.

January 25th:

Cheltenham Results

Five previous winners lined up for the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial – Chepstow Grade 1 winner Le Rocher finishing strongly up a sodden hill to prevail from Kentucky Hyden.

This is the third race he was won on soft/heavy ground. On what he have seen, good though he was made to look here, we are in the dark about his ability to be as effective on a faster surface. Runner-up, Kentucky Hyden has been beaten twice now by the winner and, with a preference for this ground, we have to conclude this is as good as he is.

Jumping well, Vicenzo Mio made the running, but was beaten without an apparent excuse. On a day when margins were likely to be extended by the ground, these three were clear.

Ballyglasheen struggled on for fourth. Once again Ronaldinho gave the impression he failed to stay. Hiked in class, Goodwood Mirage was keen early and went from cruising to labouring very quickly.

Indian Castle outstayed and out jumped his rivals in the Class 2 handicap. It was desperate stuff, made all the more so by Annacotty and Super Villan going off like lunatics from flag-fall. Still disputing it at the last, Annacotty kept battling all the way to the line.

In fourth, Ohio Gold deserves to win something of this nature. He is making heavy weather of breaking his duck over fences but it can’t be said he is obviously doing anything wrong. The step up to this trip on this ground looked to undo Dark Lover, whose mark of 142 looks a shade high anyway.

For whatever reason, The Italian Yob was never in a rhythm. Following such an accomplished round of jumping last time at Sandown, a mistake at the first was followed by several other untidy jumps. Possibly he needs to return to right-handed tracks – certainly he could not be considered again at Cheltenham.

To be frank there was not much to take from the Grade 3 handicap won by Wishfull Thinking. His winning mark of 156 is a fair reflection of his ability on a going day.

Double Ross travelled well but was unable to quicken from the last, his hat-trick bid foiled on the uphill slog.

The enigma that is The Giant Bolster finally had his day in the Grade 2 Argento Chase. Wearing a hood and a visor, he stalked the leaders, asserting on the run-in. To be fair he does run well at this track, but only the brave would expect him to reproduce this next time.

Jumping cleverly and competently, Rocky Creek had every chance at the last but perhaps found the ground too testing. Conceding 5lbs to the winner (who has been placed in a Gold Cup), in any other yard, Rocky Creek would be targeted for the Gold Cup in March. As it is, his jumping makes the National an obvious target, although the handicapper will not be lenient.

After finishing a dogged third at Doncaster, should the ground come up soft, Unioniste is surely another possible candidate for the Nicholls yard.

Red Sherlock continued his current run with a hard-fought success over Rathvinden in the Grade 2 hurdle over two-and-half. The front two (both decent novices) were clear of Aubusson in third. Rathvinden was a faller behind Deputy Dan at Warwick but has good form to his credit in Ireland.

It was heartbreak for team Big Buck’s in the Cleeve Hurdle. Having looked likely to defy the years and the injury, he was run out of it up the hill. At the age of eleven, it was a big ask; although he did not pick up where he left off, this was a massive effort on desperate ground meaning the World Hurdle is still a realistic option.

It was a satisfactory comeback effort even though the 66/1 chance Knockara Beau was not the most obvious of winners. At Fishers Cross ran his best race of the season in second and on this evidence his hat is back in the ring for the Festival.

Eighth in the Triumph Hurdle last year, Lac Fontaine made a mark of 127 look generous in the concluding handicap. After disappointing at Ascot, Totalize recovered his form to chase him home.

January 23rd:

Meydan Results

Making up plenty of ground from a mile back after a slow early pace, it would be remiss not to mention Excellent Result in the twelve furlong handicap who, from the widest draw of all, eventually finished a never-nearer fourth behind Certerach. Proven at this trip and beyond, whilst not obviously well handicapped, he at least deserves consideration next time.

After only five runs, dual-winner Alexandra Palace – a runner in a Group 1 in South Africa – defied a bad draw (fifteen of sixteen) to swoop late in the Gulf News Handicap. This was a strong handicap and the manner of victory suggests he can progress further at this meeting.

Mike de Kock, now off the mark after a traditional slow start, also saddled the fourth with the match-fit Disa Leader. In a tight finish, Solar Deity was edged out of the money in fifth but performed well enough, as did Derbaas who, having been berthed wide twice now, deserves better luck with the draw.

They found the right race for Windhoek, who, despite a wide draw and having plenty to do was always travelling, eventually responding to a brave ride from De Sousa in the Xpress Handicap. In another bunch finish he got up near the line from a fit Layali Al Andalus.

Disappointments were Daddy Long Legs (no real excuse) and Zip Top (has done well physically since we last saw him in the Racing Post when runner-up to Camelot but looked somewhat edgy).

Group 2 action followed with the Al Fahidi over seven furlongs. Anaerobio was in the right place throughout and gained first run over nearest pursuer and slightly unlucky Mshawish.

Pearl Flute was next to finish ahead of Iguazu Falls, whose form tied in with the winner. If the De Kock yard got it right with the winner, it looked as if they had no intention of letting the decent Heavy Metal get in the way.
Returning after 201 days absence and over an inadequate trip, he was never put in the race but was a finisher. He could be a different proposition over a mile next time.

Favourite in the last, Sanshaawes got very warm beforehand. It was no surprise he failed to fire. Despite a desperate start and lying last for most of the way, Jamie Spencer conjured a run from the under-achieving Gabrial, who cut the leaders down with a well-timed challenge inside the last furlong.

El Estruendoso did best from the De Kock stable in second, further emphasising the stable is about to become a major force for the rest of this meeting.

Feb 2014

Posted on by Bryle

MEYDAN
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 13TH

If it’s Thursday, it must be Meydan:

2.45:

The card starts with a competitive handicap. Energia Davos injects interest as his third last time to emphatic winner Cat O’Mountain could well provide a pointer to the winner’s future prospects at the Carnival. The form already looks solid, but such was the manner of Cat O’Mountain’s win, he looks booked for more elevated targets. Energia Davos should run his race from his eight draw.

Sanshaawes will be on most short lists after finishing fourth three weeks ago to Gabrial. He may well have posed more of a problem but for sweating badly beforehand and his supporters will hope he is more placid this time round. This race fails to offer much in the way of ammunition for would-be punters.

3.20:

The UAE 2,000 Guineas presents us with a hotchpotch of a field. Godolphin’s ex-Australian duo Long John and Paximadia (preferred in that order) potentially look to be a cut above other Godolphin representatives Safety Check and Emirates Flyer.

With both the Antipodeans reappearing after layoffs, it remains to be seen how ready they are to do themselves justice.

Full Combat will line up fit after a recent spin round this track when behind Emirates Flyer. He may be capable of improving on that, whilst the unexposed Asmar threatens to be an interesting participant along with Yarmouth winner Wenaan, who is now with Mike De Kock and could be anything.

3.55:

Gale Force Ten would be the topical tip here, but jockey bookings and his record since winning at Royal Ascot means he is unlikely to successfully carry his penalty to victory. This valuable handicap revolves round Grade 1 South African winner, Vercingetorix, who is unbeaten after only four runs and if lining up fit looks potentially well-treated.

4.30:

It is a surprise to see that Ballydoyle have parted with Mars – a horse that has always shaped as if he is likely to benefit from further than this trip. By Galileo out of a Danehill mare, pedigree confirms that. Maybe we will see him to better advantage with today’s run under his belt.

Prolific graded South African winner, Variety Club could easily be good enough. These two look the class acts, but with them reappearing after lengthy absences, questions remain.

It’s a good card. At this stage, we could do with a clue or two…

 

EYE OF THE STORM

Those of a nervous disposition may want to avert their eyes. Right now it is difficult to comment on any events other than those that are happening beneath the interminable grey skies enclosing this little island of ours. Are we really in danger of floating off to sea – or sinking into it?

Nothing can minimise the anguish felt by those victims of the current monsoon. It is a tragedy of monumental proportions. At some point the rain will stop, but the damage it has wreaked will remain and take months and years to remove.

Violation of one’s own house ranks as one of the worst of all nightmares. A house, or dwelling, may only be bricks and mortar, but to those living within, it represents an extension of themselves. Everything from the pictures on the wall to the artefacts they have collected over the years – not to mention the invisible ones known as memories – can be swept away in an instant, never to be recovered.

I know this does not compare to the poverty and desperation we witness elsewhere in the world. Those waterlogged and wellie-squelching residents on the banks of the Thames are not about to be victims of a drought or a hurricane or even a marauding wild animal, but comparisons in misery is pointless. Misery is just that – misery.

Despite an abundance of warning, the current situation seems to have caught the authorities out. In true political style, they have looked skyward as yet more clouds fat with rain rumbled overhead, assuming all that is truly awful cannot last for any length of time.

Unfortunately, Nature works to its own agenda. At last, those in Westminster realise war has been declared. It seems their response as yet is limited. In a lighter vein, their inaction caused me to speculate how short we are of much-needed members of the armed forces. A good number are still marooned in the useless mission that is Afghanistan. I had this vision of an old sweat out there, standing to attention before his C.O., complaining: “Please Sir, don’t post me to Surbiton!”

Joking aside, the marshy plains lapping toward the capital have contrived to present Messrs Cameron and co with their first real test of leadership. Up to now they have had it easy. Pontificating about the high speed train link, culling badgers and paying lip service to gays pales into insignificance in comparison.

Now is the time for action not fancy talk. Nigel Farage has already seized the initiative, suggesting foreign aid cash is diverted to a crisis closer to home – on our doorstep in fact. Obviously this resonates with the rank and file. There may be underlying reasons why we send money to Somali pirates, fantasists in Ethopia and tin-pot dictators in the Heart Of Darkness that is other parts of Africa; it’s just we fail to see what they are.

Similarly, to give hard cash to India – a country close to my heart but that nevertheless has a space program that outstrips ours – seems bonkers. Will they allow us to board their gleaming rockets bound for a new home when this poor planet crashes and burns? A question mark is surely superfluous there.

If only we would learn from what is currently happening in the rest of the world. Nowhere is immune. America, The Philippines, Greenland, Maldives, Seychelles, Bangladesh, Japan, America, Russia and Australia have all felt the impact of the much-disputed effects of global warming.

Those that deny the repercussion of global warming will presumably remove their heads from the sand when the weather improves, which of course it will. But how many more warnings do we as a species need? What will it take before we accept we are making a mess of the third planet from the sun – the one that, by a freak or the sheer law of probability, has unique conditions conducive to life. It would be a travesty if we threw it all away because of apathy. The answer is not to build wind farms or to limit the use of the petrol engine.

The first step is to prevent unnecessary action compounding our problems. Stop idiots burning car tyres in parts of Russia and the Middle East so that toxic black smoke mingles with sweet air. Stop the culling of the rain forests – pay those that have them to keep them. Cut out some of these stupid extreme so-called sports that burn a gallon of petrol a second so that coloured vapour trails can speckle the sky. These and other remedies to our problems might be a start. Of course those that make a living out of burning tyres and screaming through the air in planes or skimming over lakes in jet skis will complain. Tough! We have to start somewhere. Better they complain than we have those dependent on fuel for legitimate purposes, such as getting to work and visiting Tesco and B&Q once a week, squealing.

What am I saying? Nothing will be done. When the interminable rain is shrivelled by the sun’s after burn we will assume normality has returned – until next time that is.
Sorry, as you will have deduced, I am finding it difficult to focus on racing – what there is of it – at present. Give it three more weeks and we will have to turn our attention to Cheltenham and roll out the perennial will-they-or-won’t-they questions. But at this moment the Festival seems a world away.

Horses or not, I did strike a bet recently. I backed Leonardo DiCaprio to win Best Actor at the Oscars. It was the classic situation; I could not resist a massive price. He is an unlikely winner, but his performance in The Wolf On Wall Street was exceptional, meaning he was no 50/1 shot. So I availed myself of a monkey to a tenner, only to find his price is now in single figures.

Funnily enough I thought I could amass a bookie-busting Lucky Fifteen based on a couple of hunches. 12 Years A Slave is tipped to win everything. Maybe; but the competition is stiff this year. As well as The Wolf (Best Actor and Supporting Actor), Gravity (Best Director and Actress Sandra Bullock), The Dallas Buyers Club (Best Actor likely but not 1/10), Captain Philllips and Nebraska are solid contenders – although in a strong year they will struggle to win anything. Two films that as sprawling messes belong on a separate list despite having somehow managed to become nominated for various awards are American Hustle (a wasted opportunity of what could have been a good film and one that only sparks into life for the five minutes when Robert De Niro appears), and the shambolic shouting match that is August: Osage County.

My proposed Lucky Fifteen comprised of selections priced at such long odds, so much so I could not even calculate how much I might have won to a lousy ten pence stake. Last count was somewhere in the region of £40,000. Needless to say, with selections that were associated, bookmakers were not prepared to accept multiple bets. Fair enough, they are unlikely anyway. I was temporarily the victim of the I know-that-can’t-win-but-the-price-is-way-too-big syndrome! Back to the drawing board for me!

And tomorrow is Meydan. At present, having no wish to back horses that slip and slide all over the place and then get beaten a country mile, Meydan occupies the majority of my thought-processes as far as racing is concerned. It is hard to back a winner there. Races are often tactical affairs and sometimes we are forced to guess whether a once decent horse can regain form that would entitle it to win in lesser company. As a rule the answer is, no. But it doesn’t deter me.

They might be going down at Kelso tomorrow, but I shall be in Dubai – in spirit anyway. My comments on the card will be posted shortly, dependent on how elongated Bob’s lunch has been! I doubt they will do you much good, and being honest, I probably won’t even bet. Even so, it keeps my hand in. You never know, I might even winkle out a whomper here if it ever stops raining!

 

SATURDAY

FEBRUARY 8TH

It’s a case of the usual guess-up when trying to evaluate Saturday’s Lingfield card; whilst we tilt the crystal ball to a different angle when weighing up the Newbury options, where the weather could be the deciding factor.

I live seven miles from Newbury racecourse (they can call it Racecourse Newbury all they like!) and although racing would have been possible today, the forecast for tomorrow is appalling. Onward and upward as they say; since when did we allow the weathermen to have the last word?

1.20:

Although you would expect him to win, Calipto is no good thing in the opener as he has to concede weight-for-age to his rivals. As a four-year-old, he effectively carries a l0lb penalty. With the promising Justification and Seedling to contend with this is no simple task, but should he accomplish it, in a wide open year he would put himself into the Triumph Hurdle reckoning.

2.25:

Although officially the best horse in the line-up, Al Ferof may struggle to confirm that in these conditions. Conversely, from the in-form yard of Venetia Williams, Katenko will relish the ground and comes here after a mighty effort at Haydock in the Peter Marsh. He looks to be hitting his stride after two earlier disappointments this season and has his best chance of grabbing Grade 2 success in this field, where Al Ferof apart, his opponents look sub-standard.

3.35:

If we get this far, Irish Saint does look well-in on his 5lbs penalty after his Ascot rout in similar conditions. A fit and well Montbazon would be a credible alternative if returning in top fettle. Last seen when fourth in the 2012 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle behind Cinders And Ashes, he brings a touch of class to the event. It could be significant that stable jockey Robert Thornton appears to favour him over November course winner Vendor.

Like Montblazon, Vasco Du Ronceray was highly-tried as a juvenile and makes his reappearance here. It would be premature to dismiss Dell ‘Arca who was travelling well when brought down in the Ladbroke.

Warwick Racing

2.20:

A case can be made for Mischievous Milly reversing places with Glens Melody as she did meet with interference last time and has only three-parts of a length to find.

On another conundrum of a day, Katenko is seen as having the best winning chance of those mentioned in Newbury’s 2.25.

MEYDAN THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6th:

The Carnival that is Dubai is beginning to take shape. Although this week’s card is not easy, it may be possible to identify a couple of likely winners and certainly some horses of future interest.

3.15: Alnashmy’s record on an artificial surface, allied to a highly encouraging pipe-opener three weeks ago means he lines up here with just about the best claims. So long as he can utilise the lowest draw of all, he looks the one to beat in this competitive handicap.

4.25: Godolphin look poised to dominate in this listed event where Wedding Ring bids to follow up after a comfortable win on this surface three weeks ago.

However, her main danger, Ihtimal has reportedly thrived since arriving in the desert and is expected to come out the better. Arguably disappointing in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket when given too much to do behind subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Chriselliam, there is already talk of her becoming a major contender at Newmarket in the Guineas. She will need to win here to justify such optimism.

5.05: Last year’s winner Star Empire shaped with plenty of promise when third here three weeks ago to Sheikhzayedroad and all the signs are he has been prepared with this mind. He threatens to be hard to beat. However, dangers abound. Of these, Certerach and Statutory look the most potent.

5.40: This Group 2 is one of the races of the day. Zahee cannot be relied upon to reproduce last week’s running, and even if he does encounters much stronger opposition now.

The Godolphin representatives, Hunter’s Light and African Story will have their supporters as both were effective here last year. Last seen in December in the Hong Kong Vase, Dunaden is a proven class act in this sort of company but the trip (may be short of his best) and an unknown surface makes it hard to be confident. As this is his first run since the Vase, he may improve for the run and other targets could be in sight.

Heavy Metal is one of two potentially interesting runners. He was never put in the race last week over an inadequate seven furlongs and now steps up to a much more suitable distance. The booking of Richard Hughes indicates better is now expected.

Last seen in the Grand Prix de Paris, Battle Of Marengo now returns to action after having finished fourth in last year’s Derby. By Galileo, but out of a speedy Green Desert mare, he always gave the impression that this would be his optimum trip – something his past record indicates. Fitness has to be taken on trust, but despite leaving Aidan O’Brien’s stable he is in good hands and with Dettori booked, could run well on his comeback. The market may be the best guide in a tough contest.

6.15: Narrowly beaten by Gabrial two weeks ago, El Estruendoso should be cherry-ripe in this concluding handicap.

Four for a Lucky Fifteen would be

3.15: Alnashmy
4.25: Ihtimal
5.05: Star Empire
6.15: El Estruendoso.

Best of the Day: Alnashmy.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 1ST:
(updated Friday 3.45pm)

Racing limps into a new month with Sandown planning an all-chase card. However, with the possibility of further rain it is entirely possible racing there may be still be in jeopardy. Even if Sandown goes ahead, it is hard to be confident about backing anything on a cobbled-together program that hangs by a thread.

The main event on the card is the Scilly Isle Novices’ chase, which has cut up to a field of three. Course and distance winner Oscar Whisky will be short to continue a current run over fences. Benvolio looks a bigger danger than Manyriverstocross but lacks the class of Oscar Whisky.

That said backing horses on virtually unraceable ground is never advisable – particularly at short prices.

If Ffos Las goes ahead the feature there is the limited handicap that is the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

One gets the impression the handicapper is frustrated by Saphir Du Rheu, hiking him by a further 13lbs after his impressive victory in the Lanzarote. After finishing third to Saphir Du Rheu at Sandown, Whisper re-opposes on 21lbs better terms for just over nine lengths. On the face of it that should be enough, but such is the improvement shown by Saphir Du Rheu he could easily follow-up.

The 12lbs rise accorded to Mountainous for his head win in the Welsh Grand National from two similarly-rated rivals – split by Tidal Bay – is yet another example of the handicapper’s intransience. As said before, it is not the handicapper’s function to prevent horses from winning; they should merely be rated on what they have achieved.

A 7lbs rise for Mountainous would have seemed adequate at this stage. He faces another slog in the 2.40 and makes no appeal from a betting perspective.

The Lingfield card is the same-old-same-old to a degree.

The 3.30 there may be worth a second look. Three of the field of eight are marginally out of the handicap, but appear to be up against it in any case.

Likely favourite Blue Wave has been hiked up by 10lbs after a dubious win at Southwell last time and now stares a 16lbs rise in the face since winning over course and distance earlier in January. On the face of it he hardly looks well-treated.

It has been a long time between drinks for Mawaakef who last won from this mark in December 2012. He has not run to that form since and his latest third in an amateur riders’ event requires improving upon.

Grendisar is a little more appealing. His latest effort can be disregarded as an attempt at two miles only confirmed (as per his breeding) that he failed to stay. However, he is in a race with the handicapper, who is loading him with weight as a result of his consistency.

In an event where nothing looks particularly well-treated, top weight Swing Alone may have the best chance at the weights. He has reached a plateau from a mark of 90 and from only 3lbs higher here, he should at least be in the mix. There is every indication he will get a trip he has yet to win over, but he ran well enough over a mile-and-a-half in January. His five length beating by String Theory at Wolverhampton in December reads well enough in the light of the winner’s close second at Meydan on Thursday.

So Swing Alone is the best idea on a day that frankly will make more appeal to bookmakers than it does to punters.

We are pulling out of winter and approaching an interesting time of the year.

Cheltenham is just over five weeks away. The Carnival in Dubai continues to turn and how quickly the Flat will start. Then along comes the glitz of the Grand National. It will be Newmarket’s Craven and Classic trials from Newbury and sometimes hidden amongst the chocolate silver paper trail leading to the Easter cards at Kempton. Sometimes you have to be patient…

CHASING THE BIG BUCKS

Right now, what with conditions as they are, seems like the perfect time for a spot of speculation. To be frank, unless like me you are a Meydan fan, there is not a lot else to do.

Saturday’s racing at Cheltenham gave us all food for thought. The biggest question was whether Big Buck’s could still be included on the Cheltenham Festival menu after what was surely a gigantic effort in the Cleeve Hurdle.

After fifteen months absence and a tendon injury, at the age of eleven, Big Buck’s should arguably have been putting Felicity and Rupert through their paces at a riding school.

Yet here he was: back in action in a Grade 2, on ground that was softer than ideal, according to Paul Nicholls short of peak fitness, travelling strongly against serious opposition and for the most part looking like the winner.

Jumping the last in front with ears pricked, it seemed the wand in the sky was about to revive all the old magic. However, not for the first time, the uphill slog changed the complexion of the race. In a cruel twist of fate, Big Buck’s was caught halfway up the run-in, beaten less than a length by both 66/1 shot Knockara Beau and At Fishers Cross.

Although disappointing to the legions that had trouped to Cheltenham, whilst the hats were not twirling in the air, the old boy had covered himself in glory. Giving weight to the two that finished ahead of him and seeing off his main market rivals Reve De Sivola and Boston Bob (both of whom ran poorly it has to be said), his fans left the course muttering that it would all be different is six weeks. Bring on the World Hurdle!

And bring it on indeed they will! Whatever the merit of Saturday’s run (and it was surely considerable both from an equine and human point of view), Big Buck’s will face no shortage of pretenders to his crown come the Festival. His Cleeve run poses several interesting questions.

The first of these has to be: Did the Big Buck’s we saw on Saturday bear any resemblance to the one of old. He certainly looked the same. But as we all know, looking and being are two entirely different entities. First reaction was to feel relief that the horse had survived the ordeal. But when the adrenalin had subsided to be replaced by cold clinical evaluation, the figures on the page made for less heady reading.

Forget the close to miraculous achievement from his trainer to get the horse back on the track and the way Big Buck’s galloped to near victory, and you are left with a below-par run. Of course he was not expected to be back to his best under these conditions. The trouble is his best was assessed at a towering mark of 174.

On Saturday he ran below that by a stone or so. His staunch supporters expect significant improvement, but to expect him to improve to the tune of ten pounds is assuming a lot. The first thing to say here is – just like so-called unlucky losers – that after a run when everything was against them, good horses never improve by the expected amount.

The reason is self-evident to a degree: good horses will try their best in all conditions; therefore, they will drive themselves through and beyond the pain barrier. Like Boxer in Animal Farm or the charger at Sebastopol, doing their level-headed best is all they know. In short, expect Big Buck’s to come on from Saturday, but don’t expect a miracle.

Whichever way you shake the dice, the odds are we have seen the best of Big Buck’s. What he was once capable of belongs in the history books. Aged eleven and given the problems he has experienced, he is most unlikely to roar back to the elevated rating of a horse in the 170’s. So what can we reasonably expect?

Providing he makes the World Hurdle line-up, let’s assume he will find 5lbs or so. He may of course find more, but from a betting point of view 5lbs seems reasonable. That would mean he is 10lbs inferior to when he last won the event. That doesn’t mean he won’t win it, but it makes it a whole lot tougher assignment this time round.

Snapping at his heels are the two mares, Annie Power and the evergreen Quevega, both of whom have alternative targets. As they represent the same stable only one can be expected to take part, but either one would provide a formidable challenge – certainly tougher than either of the two that finished in front of Big Buck’s on Saturday.

As it stands, you wouldn’t back At Fishers Cross to beat Big Buck’s next time at levels but, after his best run of the current campaign, you wouldn’t be knocked over he did.

Add to the mix two possible young pretenders in More Of That and Saphir Du Rheu (unlikely to run but can’t be dismissed just yet) and a supporting cast that have scattered chances of sorts, and The World Hurdle could turn out to be a tough event.

So, currently priced up at 2/1 best, is that value about a horse looking up at the mountain from such a long way below the summit? I suspect it is not. I suspect it factors in too many imponderables, the biggest of which is the horse Big Buck’s once was. As punters we have the option of backing when we think we have unearthed the right sort of bet. It is not obligatory to wager on every event.

Arbitrage betting aside, were I to offer you 4/1 about Big Buck’s (banker’s references required and a minimum of £100 per punter), would you be a taker? Only you can answer that one. But it raises the age-old question – when does a no-bet become a bet? Are all bets solely price-driven? As the theoretical layer, in this instance, I am picking my race with some care. It does not mean I will repeat the offer on the next race. It might appear that I am offering 5/4 about the head-or-tail spin of a coin, but I am only offering it once. Take it leave it. So do you feel lucky punk; well do yah?

Leaving Clint in California, I guess most bets are price-driven. We all come to conclusions and are then liable to be put off when we know the price of our selections.

Coming up with a horse that is 9/4 in a competitive fifteen-runner handicap is enough to deter us betting. We argue, although we expect the horse to win, there have to be easier 9/4 shots to be found than the current selection. Of course the price does not determine the outcome.

Assuming our reasoning is sound, the horse has the same chance of winning the race whether it is 9/4 or 9/1 – often the price it will trade in running if truth be told.

But the longer the price the more likely it is we may have overlooked a salient factor picked up by those that set the odds. Assuming that is not the case, once the bell clangs the horse faces the same task as it did when you came to your independent conclusion.

The problem with allowing prices to determine whether we bet or not is that we are allowing the bookmakers to dictate our betting patterns. Unfortunately, as they set the prices, until the exchange-effect kicks-in late in the day that is largely unavoidable.

Prices are not set in stone. One person’s 5/1 may be another person’s 5/2 – even under exceptional circumstances – 5/4. When all the traders have left the floor, prices are only a reflection of opinion. And opinion will always vary. And as most of us lose more often than we win, the inescapable and slightly depressing conclusion has to be we will be wrong more often than we are right. That is to say events will conspire to make us look wrong even when we are right.

My apologies if I am sounding like Donald Rumsfeld here (there are things we know that we don’t know we know, and things we know that we don’t know etc). The thing we do know about Big Buck’s is that there is a chance (however slim) that he won’t even replicate the Cleeve run.

By racing standards he is long-in-the-tooth and may be forced out of contention either in the race or on the run-up to it. Whilst wishing him all the best (if he were mine I would have to run him), the possibility remains that come the day he may be incapable of flipping back the calendar. The young guns have him in their sights. I wish him well – I hope he wins – but as far as backing him to do so, I will pass.