March Results 2014

Posted on by Bryle

March 29th

Meydan Results

As one season started with Doncaster and Kempton, World Cup night signified the end of another in Dubai.

Variety Club made up for his blip last time, returning to winning ways in the Godolphin Mile. Able to get across from an outside draw, he made all. He and runner-up, last year’s winner Soft Falling Rain, were the first two throughout. We know a bit about Soft Falling Rain; Variety Club is out of a similar mould.

Flotilla flew late to grab third, just ahead of Gold City and the useful Japanese horse Brightline, who, posted wide, was prominent throughout only to tire in the last furlong. Shuruq was muscled out of contention from her double-figure draw. All her best form is on an artificial surface.

Cavalryman looked unlucky in the Dubai Gold Cup but to an extent he was the architect of his own downfall.

Once they quickened with five to race he was off the bridle and outpaced; only finding his stride down the straight when it was too late. This is not the first time he has failed to deliver.

Certerach was the beneficiary, getting first run and holding on. Star Empire was a decent third; earlier form with the winner suggesting they have run as they should.

Ernest Hemingway can be marked up after getting chopped for room but still moving forward when most were on the retreat. Something awaits him in the near future. Dabadiyan finished reasonably well whilst Songcraft looked a non-stayer. Simenon (not suited by the way the race was run but even so dropped out very quickly) and Saddler’s Rock both underperformed. The years may have caught up with them both.

Toast Of New York – winner of two events at Wolverhampton going into this – sprung something of a surprise in a cut-and-thrust UAE Derby. He did get the run of things whereas several rivals were toiling after a gruelling set of fractions.

Asmar was slow to stride and posted wide for most of the trip. Under the circumstances he has run well to finish second. He has improved with every run this season.

Emirates Flyer was another to shrug off a rough passage in third. Giovanni Boldini, unluckily touched off by Outstrip in the Breeders’ Cup, never really found his stride but did finish down the straight to force a photo for third. Long John could never get involved.

The bullet that is Amber Sky blazed from the start of the Al Quoz, shooting away and maintaining a searching pace throughout. He had looked very quick in Hong Kong and again here. Over the minimum and on a fast surface, he is very hard to peg back. That should be borne in mind if he turns up at Royal Ascot.

Ahtoug, who has held his form throughout the Carnival, just outpointed Shea Shea in second. Shea Shea is not making things easy for either himself or his jockey these days. Plum last after a casual break, he did claw back ground but to get up he needed Amber Sky to stop.

After victory in the Al Quoz, Hong Kong doubled up in the Golden Shaheen when Sterling City was stroked home by the excellent Jose Moreira, picking up his fellow-countryman, Rich Tapestry. On fresh air in the last hundred yards, Rich Tapestry is better over five.

Japan has another serious international contender in Just A Way judging by his demolition job of a top class field in the Duty Free.

Not ideally placed turning for home but possibly helped by the leaders folding off a strong pace, he sauntered to the lead down the straight and was soon clear. The time was fiercely fast. On this evidence, this son of Heart’s Cry is capable of mixing it with the best Europe can throw his way. Given their commitment Japan deserves a star and in Just A Way they have one.

Hitherto unbeaten Vercingetorix loomed at the turn but had no answer to the winner. Even so he was an honourable second and was carried out on his sword.

Dank ran on through a tired field to take third. According to her trainer she will improve for this run, making her a force to be reckoned with in events confined to her sex.

The Sheema Classic was a rough affair – made all the more so by a fatal injury suffered in running by Mars. The ascendency of the East continued when Japan Cup winner Gentildonna beat a strong field.

Cirrus Des Aigles was a brave second, but it still looks as if ten furlongs is his preferred trip. Ambivalent was a surprising third, ahead of the moody starter that is Empoli. Magician got no run but was closing at the finish.

After a dismal day, Godolphin claimed the big prize with African Story. He has had a chequered run into this (reportedly lame last time) and was not an obvious winner beforehand.

However, in a race where no quarter was given, courtesy of a blistering pace set by Mukhadram, not many got a look in. Mukhadram sustained his gallop to the end finishing clear in second.

Once again, Cat O’Mountain left the impression he would have gone close with a decent draw. He finished strongly in third and has now consolidated the opinion that, on synthetics at least, he is a top class contender.

The Hong Kong duo did not act on the track. Akeed Mofeed ran in snatches but kept on at the end. Military Attack was further back. Ruler Of The World ended a wretched day for the boys from Ballydoyle – finishing next to last.

Doncaster Results

When we last saw him Graphic was a much improved performer – winning four on the bounce. His win in the Listed event was the highlight of his progression as he withheld Fencing (entitled to improve for his first run since last summer) and Custom Cut. The winner may step up in trip to a mile and quarter next for the Earl of Sefton at Newmarket.

Oisin Murphy got it right in the listed Cammidge Trophy. On tacky ground he was always up with the pace before driving his mount forward in the last furlong to get the better of a tussle with Captain Ramius. Jack Dexter had his chance and has run well enough in third, ahead of veteran Jimmy Styles. Missing a beat at the stalls and never close enough to land a blow, Maureen deserves another chance.

Once again it seemed as if those close to the pace were favoured in the Spring Mile. Past Lincoln winner, Brae Hill, pulled out plenty to hold Stand My Ground and Yourartisonfire. Richard Fahey, who trained the winner, was also responsible for Farlow who did pick up some ground in fourth, ahead of Showboating, but they finished strung out after these.

Not much can be drawn from the win of Ocean Tempest in the Lincoln. Having made no show in Meydan, he was at home on this ground. Tullius was an honourable second from top weight.

Kempton Results

Tiggy Wiggy had the juvenile race won after a hundred yards. A fast start ensured she got the rail and, cornering well, she quickened off the bend to draw clear. They may not have been a great lot in behind but by all accounts this victory was expected and achieved in a fair time – particularly considering she never saw another rival. It seems reasonable to expect her to win again.

Beaten four lengths by Magician at Chester but not seen since last year’s Royal Ascot meeting, Contributer made light work of the Listed Magnolia Stakes despite looking burly. This win augers well for his upcoming season.

Modernstone rallied to snatch second from Squire Osbaldeston who tired late on. Trumpet Major failed to fire. The trip cannot be cited.

Salutation made all and quickened away from the chasing pack in the Class 2 Roseberry Handicap. Having appeared to have lost his way last season, he had slipped to a reasonable mark – one that will be re-adjusted after this. Grendisar continues to run well and finished second ahead of Rebellious Guest who was given every chance but was beaten by the weight.

Two track records went here, attributable to a strong tailwind according to those at the track.

Trinityelitedotcom was responsible for the second record in the Class 2 sprint handicap. On a day when races were won from the front, he held on from Absolutely So, who possibly got going too late but finished strongly. Hoof It was third in a race where the principals made it all go pretty much according to plan.

Hasopop does not look the easiest of characters to deal with, but in finishing second in the conditions stakes, he still gives the impression a mile will suit him better.

March 22nd:

Lingfield Racing

With the run of the race, penalised Stepper Point lasted home in the listed handicap sprint over the minimum from Iftisam (staying on and will be better suited by a return to six) and Even Stevens.

One false step here can mean the end of any chance and well-drawn Ladies Forever (also penalised in that she did not receive her fillies’ allowance) was soon in trouble as she sacrificed her position at the bend, being thrown wide after receiving a bump. She finished strongly but the damage was done. Unlucky today, with the onset of the Flat, there will not be too many opportunities for her at this sort of level in the future.

Considered a possible Guineas outsider, despite the widest draw of all in thirteen, Ertijaal was a short price for the listed over seven furlongs.

Second to Toormore on debut at Leicester and then a six length winner at Yarmouth, Ertijaal – a good-looking son of Oasis Dream that did not look fully wound up – soon negated his draw with an early burst of speed that took him across the field.

Sent on at the turn he failed to stretch away in the threatened manner but did enough to win. Admittedly green and all at sea on this sharp track, he looks more of a sprinter than a Guineas candidate. He could be a decent six furlong horse.

Dundalk maiden winner American Hope was closing fast at the line and could be of interest next time. He should have no problem coping with an extra furlong. The form is anchored to a degree by the third and fourth – Major Crispies and Sir Robert Cheval, although there are races to be won with the latter. A staying-on Expert looks ready for a step up in trip, whilst Brazos was a disappointment. As it stands this is listed form at best.

Robin Hoods Bay created a turn up in the Winter Derby, beating a strong field with a last furlong charge.

Windhoek was unlucky in second. Given a hefty bump at the start that shuffled him to the back, he travelled into the race in very strong style at the turn but had used up too much gas to hold on.

After a rough passage in Dubai last time, he deserves a change of fortune. Fragile to a degree, he is particularly effective on an artificial surface.

Fifth to Shanshaawes at Meydan earlier in the month, Aussie Rules was third ahead of Dick Doughtywylie – who runs well at this track. Last year’s winner Farraaj and Circumvent were next to finish.

Not for the first time, Grandeur, who it seems is best fresh and in top company playing for places, seemed to find this too much like working for a living. Despite his overall record, he is not one to place any great faith in.

Shafrah was too good for his rivals in what looked an ordinary maiden over a mile. With form in the book, this success did not come out of turn. L’Importante, Sea Here and Court Room scrapped it out for places.

Now seven, George Guru will never reach the heights once envisaged but took another step in the right direction for his new yard when holding on in Class 2 handicap from a fast-closing Brocklebank, who probably got going a stride too late. With Spiritual Star and Atlantic Crossing next to finish this was not a bad affair. After a couple of promising efforts of late, Stasio was a tame fifth.

Van Percy started his season in the best possible manner with a win in the Class 3 handicap from a mark of 87. In prevailing in a tight finish over Scottish Star and Swing Alone, he was greatly aided by the valuable 3lbs claim of his able rider.

14th March:

Cheltenham:

JCB Triumph Hurdle:

You need to travel to win a Triumph and on only his third outing over timber Tiger Roll did that throughout, striking the front at the last and forging clear. By Authorized and unraced on the Flat, this inexperienced gelding readily reversed places with Leopardstown winner Guitar Pete. It seems reasonable to expect him to improve again.

Kentucky Hyden (probably better with more ease in the ground) was second ahead of consistent Guitar Pete. Daryl Jacob lost an iron as a result of a snapped leather on Calipto (travelling as well as the winner at the top of the hill) making the partnership unfortunate to a degree.

Calipto deserves another chance at Aintree, particularly if Tiger Roll fails to turn up. Royal Irish Hussar has yet to recover his early season form, although, in finishing sixth, the signs are he may be on the way back.

County Hurdle:

In a fiercely run event, dual Cheltenham winner Lac Fontana swooped late to supply Paul Nicholls and, perhaps more importantly, Daryl Jacob with their first winner at the meeting. Lac Fontana (eighth in last year’s Triumph Hurdle) clearly likes this track.

Lightly raced Arctic Fire continues to improve and arrived at the last to throw down a major challenge that was only just foiled.

Montbazon came back to his best with a massive run in third. Fourth in the 2012 Supreme Novices’ and stuck in the mud at Newbury when needed it on his belated return in the Betfair, this was a step in the right direction.

Diakali (third behind Jezski in a Grade 1 on his latest outing) was an honourable fourth from top weight and a mark of 154. In fifth, Flaxen Flare was another to lend added credence to a strong event. An always prominent Cheltenian weakened rapidly approaching the last and was pulled up but apparently returned sound.

Albert Barlett Novices’ Hurdle:

Heralded as the novice banker from the stable that had already gobbled up the Supreme and the Neptune, unbeaten Briar Hill wins no prizes in the parade ring. An old-fashioned jumper to look at, he fell five out: sufficiently far out to prevent any conclusion.

In a race that was run at a fast pace and turned into last man standing, Very Wood, beaten three lengths by Briar Hill last time when in receipt of 7lbs, outstayed his rivals up the hill. Deputy Dan looked all set for victory when kicked on at the turn, but he jumped the last in the manner of a tired horse, struggling on for second.

Apache Wood, who was second to Briar Hill in the race mentioned, should have confirmed places with Very Wood on 3lbs better terms. He ran on for third, emphasising the worth of the Punchestown event Briar Hill won.

Looks aren’t everything and it would be premature to decry Briar Hill. His jumping had looked suspect to some in Ireland and perhaps that is the chink in his armour. Champagne West was fourth ahead of Masters Hill. Kings Palace tried to win the race the hard way by making the running. This is his style of racing but he flattened very quickly at the turn, eventually suffering an exhausted fall at the last. Were it not for the fact he has won over this trip, you could be forgiven for assuming failed to stay. Only eight out of eighteen finished.

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup:

There have been some who-would-have-thought-it results to this race in its history – we had another here. Fast ground took its toll on the day. Essentially they were going off too quickly and front-runners were not getting home.

Once again they went off like hot butter slipping from a knife. Having hacked round comfortably for a circuit, Last Instalment (a soft ground horse) was already beginning to crack when unseating approaching the top of the hill. The incident probably did him a favour as it later emerged he had broken down. Gradually the complexion of the race changed.

Six broke clear on the approach to the last, where it seemed as if Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth were about to fight it out; in the event both were unplaced. On the clamber to the line, Lord Windermere – last for most of the way but out of the scrum up front – began to close.

Under a hard drive he short-headed On His Own with The Giant Bolster a close third. Next came Silviniaco Conti and a veering Bobs Worth – who probably felt the ground. Lyreen Legend made up the sextet.

Lord Windermere won last year’s RSA from Lyreen Legend, form that hardly entitled him to win a Gold Cup – but that is often the nature of this event. It was a messy finish that prompted a stewards’ inquiry. Without being rude, from a form perspective, the final ruling makes no difference.

As Gold Cups go, this ranks as one of the worst we have seen; therefore the door is open for a new order to break through the ranks next year.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle:

Late-developer Full Shift, raised 11lbs for easily snapping up a so-so handicap at Kempton last month, was the market order. He was always struggling against much stiffer opposition and having dropped away three out, did run on again through some very ragged opposition. Presented with something of a baptism of fire, he should not be judged too harshly.

Don Poli provided another Irish winner, staying on too strongly for Thomas Crapper.

Having given the field a fifteen length start, Urbain de Sivola got into contention at the top of the hill and eventually finished fourth. It was a long way back to the fifth horse, One Lucky Lady. Full Shift was not the only disappointment. The Skyfarmer and Vieux Lion Rouge also found this too hot for their liking.

Grand Annual Chase:

The final drama of the meeting belonged, as it started, to Davy Russell. Savello provided his third winner on a day he and connections will not forget. Carnage ensued in behind in an X-rated contest. Next Sensation was mowed down after cutting out so much of the running, eventually finishing fourth. There is nothing to take from this, except to state how easy this game appears when you are winning and how difficult when you are not.

13th March:

Cheltenham:

JLT Novices’ Chase:

Approaching the last there was inevitability about victory for Taquin Du Seuil who, needing all McCoy’s strength on the run-in, gradually overhauled his rivals.

A big lump of a horse and once considered as an Arkle candidate (for which he was joint favourite at the start of the season), he was beautifully handled and balanced despite looking awkward at times. This trip of 2m 4f is ideal at present.

Despite a shaky round of fencing last time at Warwick Uxizandre jumped boldly and well in the lead, only surrendering the advantage close home.

Double Ross was a gallant third. He is holding his form well throughout the year and handles this track. Wonderful Charm appeared to underperform but did plug on to finish upsides Felix Yonger. Oscar Whisky was an early casualty and Djakadam, although not a natural round here, was still in contention when getting caught out by the fence at the top of the hill.

Pertemps Final:

The two top weights fought out a desperate finish, Richard Johnson excelling on Fingal Bay in the closing stages to lift his tired mount to the line after fluffing the last and being headed.

Winning this from a mark of 148, handicaps are probably off the agenda from now on. Narrowly touched off in second, Southfield Theatre was caught on the line. Eleven-year-old Pineau De Re was third. Although out of the money, Broadway Buffalo was a lot closer to Fingal Bay this time, presumably more at home on this sounder surface. On similar ground, it is possible he may go well at Aintree.

Ryanair Chase:

Back to his best, Dynaste gained revenge for defeat in this last year with a massive victory and making that abysmal Boxing Day run history.

As a horse that stays three miles, they went plenty quick enough for him but his jumping stood up and as stamina came in to play he got ever closer, winging the last and, perfectly delivered by Tom Scudamore, taking it up halfway up the run-in.

Hidden Cyclone was a decent second ahead of Rajdhani Express. Hunt Ball ran above himself in fourth and there might be a payday in him before the close of the season.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle:

One of the races of the meeting was dominated by the two six-year-olds in the field. In a strong renewal of the event, More Of That spearheaded the new order.

Unbeaten, he started the year with success in a handicap at Wetherby from a mark of 130 and ran to something like 165 here. The sky would appear to be the limit.

Annie Power travelled strongly if a little too keenly early and delivered her challenge at the last, only to be beaten by a stronger individual. She has done nothing wrong and further options are open. She has stayed but at this level it may pay to revert to shorter. She will need time to recover from this.

Putting some indifferent runs behind him, At Fishers Cross was third. Zarkandar picked up the pieces in fourth, ahead of Big Buck’s, who ends his career with an honourable effort. Last year’s Neptune runner-up, Rule The World was only just behind him in sixth.

Byrne Group Plate:

A strong-travelling Ballynagour struck late to deprive Colour Squadron at the last. Not always the most consistent of characters (apparently he had been known to bleed), the winner dotted up on this occasion.

Colour Squadron looked the winner for a long way; once again he was a bridesmaid. He had no answer to the winner’s sweep up the hill but is his own worst enemy. Tatenen and Johns Spirit were next to finish at one of the lesser events at the meeting; although Third Intention is worthy of a mention in his first handicap as he ran well enough from a mark of 143.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Cup:

Spring Heeled was a somewhat fortunate winner of this.

Cause Of Causes travelled sweetly throughout despite having to check on more than one occasion. Coming to win at the last, he ploughed through it. Gathered together by Nina Carberry, he closed the winner down but the damage was done. In a race strewn with error, Indian Castle’s mistake at the last – when already beaten – prevented him from obtaining a possible place.

March 12th:

Cheltenham:

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle:

The same firm – that of Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh – responsible for Vautour in the opener yesterday, repeated the dose with Faugheen.

Always handy, despite indifferent hurdling at the third and second-last, he was sent on at the turn, soon had his rivals in trouble and flew the last.

Apparently Faugheen is not the easiest horse to train, but he maintained his unbeaten record without too much trouble here, landing some sizeable bets in the process.

Ballyalton was second and Rathvinden third. Red Sherlock was a disappointment. Based on their running at Cheltenham in January he should have been much closer to Rathvinden than the fading dot in the distance he became.

Killala Quay and Twelve Roses came next ahead of Lieutenant Colonel, who looks more of a chaser. Well-touted Cup Final was a big disappointment. Although it was asking a lot for him to win, he could never go the pace and his hurdling was sketchy. Better was expected and will surely be forthcoming in time.

RSA Chase:

In a race run at a breakneck pace, on only his fourth attempt, O’Faolains Boy came out the best of a depleted field. According to Barry Geraghty, he was on and off the bridle throughout but he knuckled down in a war of attrition on the run-in.

Smad Place was runner-up ahead of Morning Assembly. Ballycasey was an always prominent fourth. He weakened quickly in the manner of a non-stayer.

McCoy worked wonders to get Carlingford Lough into contention. The horse did not take to the track and looked ill-at-ease on the ground. He made a succession of mistakes yet McCoy crept into contention running down the hill. Unsurprisingly, Carlingford Lough ran out of gas over the last two. There was carnage in behind. Corrin Wood went off too fast for his and everyone else’s good. Black Thunder brought down Many Clouds (was not going that well at the time); Don Cossack and Le Bec were next to go.

Coral Cup:

After a narrow defeat by Saphir Du Rheu in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, with a 5lbs claim all but negating a 6lbs rise, Whisper continued an upward curve with victory off 153.

Always travelling strongly, Whisper – a model of consistency this season – rose to the occasion when hitting the front approaching the last and regaining the lead close home when headed by Get Me Out Of Here. The Henderson stable has gone close on a couple of occasions already this week; this result turned the tide. Connections are already excited about the winner’s prospects over fences next season. Bayan and Smashing came next ahead of Dell’ Arca.

Queen Mother Champion Chase:

Two words sum this up: Well Done! Well done to Sire De Grugy and all those associated with him.

Well done to Gary Moore for deflecting the slings and arrows from those that decried his horse’s chance over this track and for preparing him to beat his left-handed hoodoo.

Well done to Jamie Moore for keeping a cool head and giving the horse a championship ride.

Well done of course to the horse for coping in the heat of battle.

Somersby and Module (much improved this season) were next to finish. Captain Conan was beaten after two fences and pulled up pretty soon after. He was found to be lame behind.

Hinterland was brought down by Bally Green. But this was all about Sire De Grugy who has won the last seven out of his eight races and can be rightfully referred to as the two-mile champion.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap:

The dual purpose High Chaparral gelding, Hawk High sprung something of a surprise in a race where having a bet was asking for trouble. Not an obvious winner, he was probably suited by the faster surface.

On his English debut, Katgary jumped and travelled well and was slightly hampered at the second last and then stuttered into the final flight. On this evidence he looks useful (apparently had tanked at home) and should be winning very shortly. To send Dawalan off at 7/2 in a race such as this was plain crazy!

Champion Bumper:

Unsurprisingly this was a good looking field and one that will probably throw up plenty of winners.

Dermot Weld supplied the winner, though not perhaps with the expected one. By Dansili, Silver Concorde, who likes firm ground, stayed on strongly once he hit the front to defy Shaneshill. Apparently the winner might try his luck at Royal Ascot.

Irish horses dominated here; they supplied the first six home. Black Hercules, who cut out a lot of the running and stayed on resolutely, was an eye-catching fourth. His immediate future is over hurdles.

Of the rest, Vigil, stable mate of the winner but more suited to ease in the ground, was far from disgraced in fifth whilst the four-year-old Modus, who was one of the paddock picks, raced wide for most of the way but still appeared apparently full of running at the top of the hill. He only lost his pitch in the straight but still stayed on under considerate handling. He oozes class and has a future

11th March:

Cheltenham: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle:

Last year it was Champagne Fever for Willie Mullins and the Irish, this year it was Vautour. A touch keen from the start, Ruby Walsh had him perfectly settled and the horse jumped like an old hand – that is with the exception of a minor error at the third last.

All class, he had his field ragged at the turn and a spectacular leap at the last sealed it. The chasing pack was headed by Josses Hill (lost a shoe), with the well-regarded Vaniteux – who is only now coming to himself – in third. Sgt Reckless made up acres of ground to scythe through the field from stone last at one stage to grab fourth.

Luckless Wilde Blue Yonder was fifth with the winner’s stable mate Wicklow Brave sixth. Irving was never sighted with a realistic chance and presumably some explanation will be forthcoming. In truth this was all about the winner who recorded a fast time and looks destined for even higher honour.

Arkle Trophy:

On only his second run over fences, Western Warhorse created a major upset here to grab a last gasp success from the bold frontrunner Champagne Fever.

A fizzy sort over hurdles that has often done too much too soon, he was settled much better by the application of a hood, running down his main rival in the shadow of the post. Talent has never been a problem for Western Warhorse; temperament is the potential barrier and there is no guarantee he will replicate this form.

Champagne Fever had the race won everywhere but at the line. A big chaser that will surely gain compensation for this narrow defeat, he fought off rival after rival with his determined style of running and accomplished jumping.

The much smaller Trifolium did not jump as well as he can but was always shadowing Champagne Fever, laying down his challenge from the turn but lacking the strength to get by. He kept on in honest style to finish third ahead of Dodging Bullets.

Rock On Ruby made a howler of a mistake at the third and was always struggling thereafter. He is not a natural chaser.

Baylis & Harding Handicap Chase:

In a race run at a lightening pace and catalogued with sketchy jumping throughout, Hollywell, last year’s Pertempts Final winner over hurdles, rattled off a three-timer over fences after success this season at Catterick and Doncaster.

Arguably a strong travelling Ma Filleule was a tad unlucky when clouting the third last, which caused his rider to lose his irons. Even so she crossed the last in front only to be deprived in the last hundred yards.

Only an optimist would try to pinpoint future winners from this. The Package did well enough after nearly a year off in third with Green Flag staying on stoutly enough in fourth.

Stan James Champion Hurdle:

This was the day when Jezki finally lived up to the hype.

Having been close to the top guns on many an occasion, this time the cards fell in his favour. Wearing a first time hood, crucially, he poached a lead approaching the turn and stuck on strongly.

Many will feel My Tent Or Yours may have been unlucky. Travelling supremely well throughout, he was not sufficiently slick at the top of the hill or at the second last to close the winner down when needed.

He tried valiantly from the last but Jezski had the race won by then and held on by a diminishing margin.

A horrible fall suffered by Our Conor on the far side knocked The New One back and he did well to claw back much of the lost ground. Again his supporters will cry foul. He was a fast finishing third, so the stage is set with everything to play for should there be a renewal between the first three.

Hurricane Fly travelled strongly but at the age of ten some of the gloss is missing these days and well though he has performed, paydays like this are probably a thing of the past.

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle:

progressive and tough mare Glens Melody – a dual Warwick winner this season – almost foiled stable mate Quevega in her bid for an unprecedented six-timer.

As in last year’s race, Quevega was not travelling from the top of the hill but Walsh gradually nursed her into contention and then, in an emotional finish, ran down Glens Melody from the last. Quevega was returning after her Punchestown win last April. Now aged ten, it could be this is her swansong at the Festival.

Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase:

Three stood out beforehand: Foxrock (best form but unproven over four miles); Shutthefrontdoor (every indication he would stay) and the most likely to handle this extreme trip Shotgun Paddy.

This was reflected in the market. On a faster surface than they were accustomed to, a series of mistakes put paid to their respective chances. In addition Foxrock looked as if he failed to stay this trip of four miles. Shutthefrontdoor was never on an even keel.

Shotgun Paddy did the best of the trio and possibly would have pulled it off but for a final mistake two out. He recovered and was able to launch a final narrowly thwarted challenge.

As it was Midnight Prayer lasted with lightly-raced Suntiep – another to blunder his way round – finishing from out of the clouds to take third. On an easier surface, with youth on his side, he could be the one to take from this.

Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase:

A chapter of incidents dominated. Consistent Present View (won two and placed in other three this season) got the breaks and made them count.

Attaglance was unwisely switched by his jockey on the run-in, which cost him the race. Re-aligned, he was closing fast when it was all over.

A mistake at the last prevented Pendra from mounting a final effort in third and Ahyaknowyerself took fourth. A jolting early mistake prevented Ohio Gold from playing any further part. Art Of Logistics made a shuddering error late on. In short this ground found out these novices, many of whom were travelling a stride too quickly for comfort.

8th March:

Sandown Results

It’s difficult to know how good the small field was for the juvenile handicap; all we can say is the winner, Dormello Mo is a lot better.

An expensive purchase from France where he won a small race over hurdles, he left a moderate fourth at Exeter behind him in this. Always travelling, he jumps well and it was plain for all to see he was cantering over his rivals in the straight. A big leap at the last sealed success.

The Imperial Cup was perhaps not as competitive a renewal as some, although the improving Baltimore Rock looked progressive in getting the better of Gassin Golf, who remains a maiden over timber but is doing nothing wrong.

Vibrato Valtat clung on for third ahead of Regal Encore who cruised for much of the way but in this, his first venture in a handicap, failed to find what was expected off the bridle. To be fair he kept on. With his stable not in the best of form, it is reasonable to expect there will be another day.

Wolverhampton Results

Hasopop can be forgiven defeat in the opening event where a wide draw made things difficult. He was doing plenty of good work in the closing stages and a return to a mile will suit. Over a trip that is ideal, Chookie Royale quickened clear on the turn.

Meydan Results

On a star-studded programme, Super Saturday did not disappoint. The opening event went to maiden Asmar who had posted promise on each of his three runs to date.

As suspected he thrived for this step up to a mile and a quarter. Enterprisingly sent on at halfway by Richard Hughes, who was unhappy with the slow early gallop, Asmar soon had his rivals toiling and drew clear in the straight.

Emirates Flyer, who had beaten the winner over a mile last time, was shoved along down the far side. In typical Barzalona style he was asked to swing wide in the straight. Even so he was beaten on merit. A strict line through the runner-up suggests the improving Asmar is not far behind Long John over this trip, so he might give him a run for his money in the UAE Derby on World Cup night.

The importance of jockeyship here cannot be overstated. Once again, a piece of brilliance sealed success in the Group 3 sprint. Winner of this last year and now seven; over the minimum, on a flat track and on fast ground, Shea Shea is a monster.

Prepared to forfeit ground in order to secure the near rail, Soumillon dropped in and then produced his mount to win cleverly. Considering this was his first race of the season, this was an encouraging reappearance.

Ahtoug lunged late in second ahead of Dux Scholar and a closing Sole Power, who, although entitled to improve for the run, will struggle to overturn this form with Shea Shea in the Al Quoz.

Rich Tapestry struck a blow for Hong Kong when claiming the Group 3 over six furlongs. It has been a while between drinks for him but he has acquitted himself well in top grades. Winner of this and the Golden Shaheen last year, after an indifferent comeback run, Reynaldothewizard recovered something like his best form in second.

Complicate maintained current improvement with another solid effort in third ahead of Jamesie, another continuing to thrive in the desert. Jersey winner Gale Force Ten showed a glimmer. The decision to drop Soft Falling Rain in trip was perplexing beforehand – even more so afterwards as, predictably, he could never match strides with six furlong specialists. He was not disgraced however, so after this pipe opener a return to seven or a mile and on Tapeta will be to his advantage.

Not many got into the Group 3 over a mile where Shuruq, on whom on this occasion Barzalona seemed to get things right, ran down hot favourite Variety Club.

Shuruq’s best form has been on an artificial surface although nothing so far achieved matches this. Variety Club was in the first two throughout but looked a tired horse when striking the front. He had no answer to the filly’s closing burst. Capital Attraction and Forjatt (third to Vercingetorix three weeks ago) were third and fourth in a strongly run event.

Not for the first time, Empoli declined to take up his invitation to race, on this occasion in The Group 2 City Of Gold on turf. After a cracking effort behind Tasaday last time his non-participation was a disappointment.

In a typical last furlong dash, Excellent Result squeezed through to grab the spoils from Songcraft (who on level terms with many of these should have been weighted out of this) and a closing Mount Athos.

From his wide draw, Meandre was a gallant fourth with Dabadiyan and Sheikhzayedroad on the heels of the principals. Arc fifth – the bull that is Penglai Pavilion – was turned out looking as if he has done particularly well since last year. He was not disgraced and should improve for this outing.

Considered by many to be a fortunate winner last time, Prince Bishop repeated the dose in the Group 1. In the process he confirmed form with African Story who many considered unlucky last time.

Once again Prince Bishop rewarded Fallon’s bravery as the jockey chartered a bold run up the inner, much as he had done on Excellent Result earlier. Sanshaawes and Surfer were next to finish ahead of Cat O’Mountain who was again asked to achieve the impossible. Behind for much of the journey, he turned for home in an impossible position but grabbed ground on the run to the line. It seems on an artificial surface he is not far behind the best on show. Granted a decent run, he would have gone very close here. This is the second time he has taken part in a horror show for his followers.

Unbeaten Vercingetorix was always in the right place in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta, once again pouncing at will under a shrewd ride from Soumillon. There were a couple of hard luck stories in behind but the common denominator with Vercingetorix is that he keeps winning. He will now head to World Cup night with excellent claims. Vancouverite kept on gamely, depriving Anaerobio of second.

Spencer on Trade Storm once again allowed his rivals too much rope. Mars finished strongly but he is a dodgy character that cannot be relied upon.

March 2014

Posted on by Bryle

GRAND NATIONAL DAY

SATURDAY APRIL 5th

It might be the Grand National but to the professional gambler it is just another horserace. As such it is treated accordingly.

Professionals dissect races they are interested in, reducing the field to those that in their opinions can win and eliminating those that can’t. Once they have stripped the field bare, they take a look to see if they can narrow it down further until they might be left with a handful of serious runners and hopefully the winner.

To do this the professional assessor has to take an opinion and not to be frightened to be wrong. Remember, the man who is worried about being wrong is very often never right. Fence-sitting is for politicians and civil servants.

So herewith my own version of Saturday’s big race: The Crabbie’s Grand National.

Forty are scheduled to line-up, which may include one or more of the four reserves. With the chances of many of the runners looking remote at best, let’s see if we can turn forty into ten. To do this we have to adopt a ruthless approach, but it can be done and result in a pot of gold. After all, a ten-runner horse race where bookmakers are offering 8/1 the field drastically shifts the odds in favour of the punter.

These are the runners from my viewpoint, and you may be surprised by some of the exclusions.

TIDAL BAY:

Has to buck age and weight trends to win. Carrying top weight of 11st 10lbs and at the age of thirteen, he faces a Herculean task – but since joining the excellent Paul Nicholls he has seemed better than ever.

Gone are the moods, the tantrums and the quirky traits that for so long made him a dubious betting proposition. A colossal effort under top weight in the Welsh Grand National in December was followed up by an honourable second in Ireland in a Grade 1 early in February. Rested since, he cannot be disregarded. The most likely scenario is that he will finish in the first six but that his weight will anchor him. Even so, he will expose weaknesses in many of his rivals.

LONG RUN:

Is the one horse in the line-up that will have us muttering in our beards – and beers – how obvious it was when he wins.

As a dual King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner that is only nine and runs from a lower mark than when he rattled up the first of those Kempton wins in 2011, the handicapper has opened the door for him now.

Representing the all-powerful Nicky Henderson stable, he can be relied upon to have been well prepared for this task. Although his jumping is not always bombproof, he will have been schooled over replica Aintree fences at home and is the sort to rise to the occasion.

His excellent rider emphasised his worth over these fences when winning the Fox Hunter Chase on Thursday and, granted a smidgen of luck and on this drying ground, he could be too classy despite his burden.

ROCKY CREEK:

Completes the trio of classy horses not normally associated with this event. Second in the Hennessy at Newbury in November on only the first of two runs this season, he should line up as a fresh contender that has been prepared with this in mind.

The ground will be ideal and, having never fallen in twelve chases, his jumping has already withstood the test of time. He may have a few pounds too many in the handicap but his class is undeniable and if he is one of three or four at the last, he is the one lesser rivals will have to pass.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE:

Holds more of a technical chance than a realistic one. But efforts here (in the Betfred Bowl and when winning as a novice) and in Ireland in top company suggest at his best he could go well. This is his time of year.

DOUBLE SEVEN:

Something of a dark horse that has progressed through the ranks in Ireland and is catapulted into the big time now. On what he has achieved his mark seems fair and he could easily surpass it. Two doubts remain. He has yet to prove he stays this far – a remark that applies to many – and his jumping can still be a little dicey at times. However, don’t let that put you off too much. This course has a habit of focusing the sloppy but talented horse and as the choice of Tony McCoy he could not be in better hands. Even so he is a bit of a guess.

BURTON PORT:

And talking of guesses, enter this one-time RSA second and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up, whose last win was in the Mildmay Chase here in 2010 when rated 152. Having slipped to a mark of 145, clearly a return to anything approaching that form would make him a blot at the weights.

The problem is, since then he has suffered a leg injury and, at the age of ten, he gives the impression the best is behind him. However a reasonable effort in a veterans’ event last time gives some cause for optimism for his supporters although he will need to find more now. Given his connections that is not impossible and success is not a total pipe dream.

PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE:

Another with a chance on his best form but that seems to be over the horizon and far away these days. However, he does have a dash of class if he can recover it (latest run suggests he is no back number) and would be dangerous if crossing the last alongside a bunch of camels.

LION NA BEARNAI:

Is another that will need to wind the clock back to win. However this former Irish Grand National has already shown he can grind it out when others are crying enough. Weighted to the hilt but ridden by a jockey at the top of his form, if it turns into an old-fashioned National going to the last man standing, one of the more likely ones.

THE PACKAGE:

Creeps in to this with an attractive weight and is another that could test his rivals if it turned into a slog from the last. Fell at the nineteenth here on his previous visit in 2010 and has a patchy record since. Lines up on the back of a decent comeback run at Cheltenham last month. Possibly a place is the best he could obtain, but on his best form does have a chance.

ROSE OF THE MOON:

Risky but credible outsider that could outrun his odds. He completed the course when running in the Becher Chase in December so may be capable of making some sort of impact at these weights.

That is my shortlist, which excludes several currently fancied runners. Why?

Let’s take Teaforthree. He was third off a 3lbs higher mark last year, but has not won in his three runs since – admittedly including a run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when out of his league. However, this year’s race is potentially a much better renewal than last year so he is unlikely to better his position now and could easily struggle to even maintain it.

Monbeg Dude is an old-fashioned staying chaser that peaked in December at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 handicap from an 8lbs lower mark. Life is tougher now and he has plenty to do with Teaforthree on old form. Balthazar King would be a popular winner for Richard Johnson but on his last visit here he burned himself out by tearing off too quickly. Again, his qualities seem confined to staying or cross-country events where the vast majority of his opponents are geriatric or slow.

I have attempted to include outsiders, but essentially I see the race concerning the class acts, who may dominate. Not all will cross the last in a line, but one of them at least is likely to slip the tangled net of misfortune and drama that could foil their bids.

Assuming I have highlighted the right ten runners, this is how bookmakers might price up the race should the other thirty not be taking part:

3/1 LONG RUN
4/1 TIDAL BAY
9/2 ROCKY CREEK
7/1 DOUBLE SEVEN
10/1 BURTON PORT
16/1 QUITO DE LA ROQUE
16/1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
16/1 LION NA BEARNAI
20/1 THE PACKAGE
33/1 ROSE OF THE MOON

These odds are based on a 110% book. Okay, allow a few points on the prices for error and add or subtract at your discretion. But the value plainly appears to lie with the three market leaders: Long Run, Tidal Bay and Rocky Creek. Currently available at 14/1 or even a shade bigger for looking, Long Run is the selection.

Tomorrow is not solely about the Grand National, although, of course, for many it is the only race in town.

AINTREE: 1.30:

A cracking Grade 1 novice event kicks off the card. Over this trip of 2m 4f, Volnay De Thaix looks sure to improve. A tenuous form line through Splash Of Ginge suggests he may have something to find with Dell’ Arca; however, he has been brought along steadily for this event whereas it could be argued Dell’ Arca comes here after a busy campaign.

2.05:

Trifolium gets a chance for consolation for what was a big effort in the Arkle. His class shines through here and only an off day would prevent him beating lesser rivals.

2.50:

Racing gets distinctly harder after this, the last of the Grade 1 events at the meeting. Whilst At Fishers Cross lines up with solid credentials after a shaky start to the season, Whisper is the horse improving through the ranks. He has only a little to find on these rivals and can throw his hat into the ring with a massive performance now.

LINGFIELD

Exchequer should open his account in the 1.15. After three promising runs as a juvenile, including when second to Kingston Hill, this should be an ideal stepping stone on the way to better things.

3.40:

Barley Mow should win this but American Hope shaped well two weeks ago when a staying on second to the highly-regarded Ertijaal. This trip will suit and he has an improving profile and the right pedigree to test the favourite, who may be sharper on another occasion.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY TWO (Friday)

(posted Thursday 4.15pm)

2.00: International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices’ Hurdle:

Although never heralded as being at the top of the novice tree within the powerful Nicky Henderson camp, Josses Hill has quickly scaled the heights after his novice win, competing in Grade 1 company on his remaining two runs and finishing runner-up on each occasion. His second to Vautor in the Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham is the best form on offer here and his habit of finding for pressure makes him the one to beat now.

Sergeant Reckless was only one-and-a-half lengths away in fourth at Cheltenham having made up a great deal of ground from an unpromising position. However, his habit of running in snatches may find him out round here. Art Of Payroll and Baltimore Rock are seen as bigger dangers.

2.30: Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices’ Chase:

Despite a small field, all six in the line-up have claims of sorts. RSA winner O’Faolains Boy takes a long time to warm up. As a hard ride that is invariably on and off the bridle, he may find this quick track far from ideal.

The progressive Holywell and Wonderful Charm (who can probably be forgiven an on the face of it below par run last time when hampered at Cheltenham) look less complicated rivals.

Many Clouds was never in a comfortable rhythm last time at Cheltenham in the RSA and that run is best overlooked. On the strength of his effort at Ascot when a two-and-half length runner-up to O’Faolains Boy conceding 4lbs he enters the reckoning once again.
A bold front runner, he will be suited by this track and a big run is expected. Holywell is taken to complete the four-timer. Although not without chances, Don Cossack and Just A Par look less likely winners than the remaining four.

3.05: Betfred Melling Chase:

Module and Rajdhani Express come here on the back of two excellent efforts at Cheltenham and both will have their supporters.

The question those looking to play here will have to ask is which run was the better: Module’s third to Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother Chase over what looked like an inadequate trip, or Rajdhani Express’s third to Dynaste in the Ryanair?

Both will have to operate at maximum strength to win, but taken as an overall package Module has a more tempting profile and is the selection.

Although as a Grade 1 the composition of the field leaves something to be desired, the opposition makes up more than numbers and is not that far adrift from the standard set by the two principals. Once again, this is not a cut-and-dried event to solve.

3.40: Crabbie’s Topham Chase:

As always, run over the Grand National fences, we are presented with a knotty problem here. Currently bookmakers are betting 10/1 the field, which seems an accurate enough assessment.

Ma Filleule recovered with real spirit to come back from an error last time at Cheltenham when only going down narrowly to Holywell. Raised 7lbs since, she may still be able to propel herself into the firing line once more but this race is fiercely competitive.

4.15: Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle:

This trip of three miles will expose any stamina limitations. For that reason, having looked to find 2m 6f too far at Thurles last time, Giantofaman is bypassed. Beat That shapes as if likely to stay, whereas Capote and Seeyouatmidnight – both of whom have been saved for this meeting – have already won over today’s trip. Others enter the reckoning, making this a hard race to call.

The middle day of this three-day festival always threatened to be the hardest to crack and that is how it looks. Josses Hill and Module are nominated as the best chances on the day from this quarter but are not necessarily advanced as bets.

It is tempting to oppose O’Faolains Boy in the Mildmay. Holywell may provide the biggest danger but Many Clouds should not be dismissed lightly. And that is the metre of the day, which is constructed of races that are hard to solve in one hit. After a near miss with Diakali on Thursday, it looks like it is all to play for on Saturday…
Good luck with your selections.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY ONE (Thursday)

Here we go once again for the rollercoaster that is Aintree. With four Grade 1s on the first day card, backed up by two competitive handicaps and the hunter chase that is the Foxhunters, there is something for everyone…

2.00:

Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle: All eyes will be on Calipto here after a catalogue of disasters in the Triumph Hurdle. Beaten eight lengths at Cheltenham, his misfortune started at the second when he was impeded and was then compounded when a stirrup leather snapped at the top of the hill.

After the race most observers claimed he looked unlucky and would have arguably beaten Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete but for the intervention of bad luck.

Such thinking can be dangerous: time and again the form book has the last word; although, there is a suspicion that Calipto may re-write a part of it now. We shall see… Guitar Pete has run to a similar level all season and looks guaranteed to be in the mix once again.

A little over three lengths behind Calipto at Newbury on his hurdling debut, Actival has been saved for this. After his authoritative win in the Adonis at Kempton he is not far short of the best of his age and could be the biggest danger to Calipto. On the face of it the three mentioned appear to be the runners, although the improving Fox Norton could enter calculations. Whilst respecting Calipto, Actival looks the logical each-way alternative.

2.30: Betfred Bowl:

So often this event can throw up a surprise. Such a scenario looks unlikely this year as Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti stand out – the inference being one or the other must come out on top. Narrow preference is for Dynaste.

To a degree Argocat is the dark horse that is open to improvement. Even so he has plenty to find if he is to figure. The remaining three will need to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. Last year’s winner First Lieutenant is the scavenger waiting to steal the scraps. He invariably runs his race but can only be considered if the front two underperform; whereas neither Menorah nor Houblon Des Obeaux have shown form approaching this level.

3.05: Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

After Calipto in the opener, The New One is the second so-called unlucky Cheltenham loser to line up here. With a trip likely to play to his strengths, after the setback on Boxing Day at Kempton and the broadside he received in the Champion Hurdle, this is his chance.

Fearful of an avalanche of bets in his favour, bookmakers have priced him up as if he is a near certainty. As a result they have overlooked the wild card that is Diakali, who is available at a tempting 12/1 with Coral as I write and 9/1 elsewhere.

Surely these odds are out of kilter with the horse’s chance. The Willie Mullins representative ran a massive race at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle under top weight and his two-and-a-quarter length third to Jezki – over this trip – in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse gives him a strict chance with the favourite, who was almost three lengths behind Jezki at Cheltenham after his much publicised troublesome passage. Those making a case for anything else (including Rock On Ruby) are liable to be barking up the wrong tree. In what is seen as a two-horse contest, even allowing for the fact that any attempt to bet each-way is likely to be thwarted (excludes each-way multiple bets though) Diakali has to be the call at the prices.

3.40: Crabbie’s Fox Hunter’s Chase:

No doubt those acquainted with hunter chaser form can nominate each-way alternatives to the favourite here; but, granted a clear round, the decision to re-route Mossey Joe for this instead of targeting the Grand National is likely to pay its own dividend. He is not perceived as a betting prospect for those of us that don’t don red coats and breeches on bank holidays, but looks a solid favourite.

4.15: Silver Cross Red Rum Handicap Chase:

History shows a shock is more than possible in this. Cutting through the opposition, Sound Investment has a progressive profile and could be the one to concentrate on for those bold enough to play. Claret Cloak blundered away his chance in the Grand Annual at the second-last but has been raised 4lbs for the privilege and faces a similarly stiff task today.

4.50: Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

Temperament and a sketchy past record means Arkle winner Western Warhorse will not be short of detractors here. Stepping up in trip to 2m 4f (might be a problem if he decides to take a tug), those intent on backing him will do well to do so at SP – which will surely outstrip current cramped odds. With two serious contenders in the shadows, many will nominate him as the lay of the day.
Uxizandre performed well at the Festival when second to Taquin Du Seuill in the JLT where Oscar Whisky tipped up at the first. Effective in small fields, Oscar Whisky claimed the scalp of Taquin Du Seuill at Cheltenham in January and it is entirely possible he will regain the winning thread here. Along with Uxizandre his presence means there will be no hiding place for the Arkle winner.

5.25: Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

This represents a precarious end to the day as far as punters are concerned. Principal contenders appear to be the Irish duo Jetson and Busty Brown.

Although hard to fancy, now returned to timber from a favourable mark, Riverside Theatre is the sort to represent Nicky Henderson with credit, whilst Doctor Harper is on the upgrade.

A case can be constructed for the appropriately named Spirit Of Shankly. In all, for those anxious to continue playing, the advice would be to lob a few quid on the last-named at a sporting price. The sensible advice from this befuddled corner would be to leave the race alone.

So from a betting perspective, although ideas may transmogrify once racing gets underway, at this stage I am nominating two value bets in Actival and Diakal.

Take it easy on what might be a trickier day than it looks…

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING 2014

(posted Monday evening 7pm)

This historic meeting kicks off on Thursday – and it is straight into top quality action with the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at 2.00. With Zarkandar, Walkon, Binocular, Katchit and Detroit City among winners in recent years, this is an event often claimed by an obvious contender.

Cheltenham Festival runners have a good record (seven out of the last ten have obliged). Many will be anxious to recover Cheltenham losses with Calipto, who was travelling strongly when his jockey became the victim of a slipping saddle in the Triumph.

He will doubtless be heavily supported to make amends but may have to face Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete for a second time.

Betfred Bowl Chase:

In contrast to the opening event, this is often won by the right horse on the right day. That is to say it can be a consolation prize.

This proved to be the case for the likes of First Lieutenant, Follow The Plan, Nacarat and Exotic Dancer – all of whom had been beaten at the highest level coming into the race. Even so they could be relied upon to produce their best form against higher profile rivals that came here after long seasons.

The Pipe stable has farmed four of the last ten runnings, and will field the favourite in Dynaste – who was a winner at this meeting last year.

Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

For anyone unaware of the name – Doom Bar is a particularly tasty bitter that is brewed in Cornwall. Those yet to acquaint themselves of this brew should redress such an oversight as soon as possible.

As for the race, it is the third of four Grade 1 events on the day. The key factor is the step up in trip for Champion Hurdle contenders that are now faced with 2m 4f.

For that reason it does not always pay to rely on Cheltenham form. Only two favourites have obliged over the last ten years (both of those joint favs) but that’s not to say the race favours outsiders.

Irish runners have a good record – they have won five of the last ten renewals. Assuming Annie Power will wait for Punchestown, many will consider this race to be tailor-made for The New One.

Crabbie’s Fox Hunters’ Chase:

Step forward the hero of the Aintree hour in Crabbies’, the alcoholic ginger beer manufacturer that has injected extra lashings of fizz into the meeting by their sponsorship.

This could be one of the races where spectators may want to avail themselves of their product as it invariably favours bookmakers over punters. Last year it was won by a 100/1 shot; in 2010 by a 50/1 chance. Otherwise three of the last ten runnings have resulted in a winning favourite, so the race can supply predictable results to a degree. It does help to have some knowledge of hunter chasing in general and, possibly more importantly, in a race where jockeyship can be paramount, of the riders involved.

Red Rum Handicap Chase:

One way or another, stand by for an unexpected result here. This handicap has thrown up three big price winners in the last ten years (two 20/1 chances and a 25/1 shot) as well as four winning favourites (including co-favs). It is invariably not an easy race to solve.

Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

With only five year’s results to go by, it is a little premature to pinpoint any real trends but so far this, the fourth of the Grade 1s on the day, has gone pretty much according to the script.

Captain Conan won it last year. Trainers Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have won two races apiece. Tartak, in the inaugural running in 2009, was the biggest priced-winner to date for his trainer Tom George.

Plenty will be prepared to oppose Arkle winner Western Warhorse here. Oscar Whisky should be more suited to this track than Cheltenham, but the Irish challenge is potentially a strong one.

Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

A tough three mile hurdle closes the day. This is one of the harder races to get right. Six of the last ten winners have returned at double-figure prices. To balance this out, the other four went to favourites. Unless you unearth a potential blot in the handicap – you know the risk you run when betting in events such as this.

Day Two:

The day starts with a Grade 2 novice hurdle over two miles sponsored by the International Festival for Business. Nicky Henderson has won the last two runnings, with My Tent Or Yours last year and Darlan before that.

With General Miller having supplied a win for Seven Barrows in 2010, Henderson, a top man at this track, will hope to be represented by Josses Hill this time. The opposition is potentially strong. If turning up, Arctic Fire and possibly Cheltenham flop Irving would count as two serious dangers.

It is back to a Grade 1 with the Betfred Mildmay Novices’ Chase. Five of the last ten favourites have obliged for punters, including Dynaste last year. He was preceded by Silvianco Conti in 2012. There have been no real shocks in this over the past ten years. Six of the last ten winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival. A small field seems likely this year.

The Grade 1 Betfred Melling Chase

appears on statistics to be one of the more punter-friendly races with five of the last ten events going to the favourite.

However, with a roll-call that includes top two-milers like Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded and Moscow Flyer, that figure could be misleading. There is nothing of that calibre in this year’s line-up, a race that could well suit Queen Mother third Module over this extended trip.

Topham Chase:

Fifty percent of the last ten winners have been double-figure big prices, which is hardly surprising considering they often bet 10/1 the field.

This is also something of an oddity of a race, being as it is run over the in-between trip of 2m 6f and over the Grand National fences. This can be one of the hardest races at the meeting to call, although that does not prevent punters from piling in.

Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Chase:

At Fishers Cross last year and Black Jack Ketchum in 2006 were the only winning favourites in ten years. There have been four big price winners of this Grade 1 over three miles – often run on quick conditions.

Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle:

Punters are often in need of medication after this has been run. There have been no winning favourites in the last ten years. Sunnyhill Boy at 8/1 was the lowest-priced winner in 2009. 2013 Grand National winner, Aurora’s Encore prevailed in 2008 at odds of 50/1. A race to be wary of.

Concerto Group Mares’ Standard NH Flat Race:

A Flat race for mares – what joy to bring down the curtain on the second day’s proceedings! Turbo Linn in 2007 is the only winning favourite to date. Bring on the Doom Bar!

Grand National Saturday:

Pertemps Network Novices’ Hurdle: Elevated this year to a Grade 1, again the trip of 2m 4f could be partly responsible for some big-priced past winners. Ubak surprised at 22/1 last year. Bouggler won at 16/1 in 2009 and Turpin Green was also something of a shock when winning in 2005 at odds of 14/1. Otherwise there have been three winning favourites and fancied winners in the shape of Simonsig in 2012, Spirit Son in 2011, Elusive Dream in 2008 and Tidal Bay in 2007. The overall impression is that this is a solvable contest if the field is right.

Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase:

Another Grade 1, this time over two miles. Several likely candidates are doubly engaged throughout the meeting, so at this stage it is a question of seeing who turns up.

A small field is likely. There have been five winning favourites in the last ten years – last year’s winner Special Tiara being the only blot in a race that otherwise favours punters.

Silver Cross Stayer’s Hurdle Grade 1:

At 11/2 in 2005, Monet’s Garden was the biggest-priced winner. Four-time winner Big Buck’s and dual-winner Mighty Man give this a wobbly shape as far as betting figures are concerned. More Of That would be popular if turning up; in his absence, At Fishers Cross (same ownership) would probably line up as favourite.

Having improved with every run this year, Whisper would be the dark horse.

And a word of possible interest here. Whisper’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, has an enviable record at this meeting. For that reason it pays to scrutinise his representatives carefully over the week. Bear in mind he is often successful with those runners that are not obvious and at first glance appear to hold only average chances. He often does well in the handicaps.

Betfred TV Handicap Chase:

Only the racing authorities could plan or sanction this!

Here we have a handicap chase over the Mildmay fences run as a curtain-raiser for the Grand National, fifty minutes in advance of the big race of the meeting. Don’t be surprised if there is a shortage of jockeys wishing to take part in this, or a shortage for their scheduled mounts in the Grand National after it. And be prepared for a turn up!

Crabbie’s Grand National:

To a degree luck plays a big part, although the right horse often makes its own luck in this. The poser set for punters is to nominate the right horse for the occasion.

Often first-timers to the track have the edge, so class acts like Rocky Creek and Long Run could be of interest this year.

Aged thirteen and carrying 11st 10lbs, Tidal Bay will have to buck sensible statistics to win.

The favourite, Tea For Three had his chance last year when third and faces stiffer competition this time round.

With a couple of better handicapped contenders (Godsmejudge and Same Difference) now absentees, but worth bearing in mind for events like the Bet 365 Chase at Sandown or the Ayr National, it could be a case of the cream rising to the top in the form of either of the two mentioned.

Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders):

Cockney Sparrow was a winning favourite last year, Lifestyle the 28/1 winner in 2013. The kind of event that could throw up anything! If you are not already in a queue to collect winnings from the Grand National, it could be you shouldn’t be in one to place a bet in this.

Weatherbys Private Banking Champion NH Flat Race:

With winners at 33/1, 50/1, 28/1and 20/1, the past results speak for themselves.

This is not a race for punters tempted to punch their way out of trouble. That said, if there is any cash left, Modus is better than his running at Cheltenham might suggest and is likely to take more of a hand at the finish now if turning up. He does have the four-year-old hoodoo to defy.

These are some preliminary thoughts and ideas for the coming week. We hope you find them useful and that they may help focus you in the right direction.

We shall be posting Free Tips for each day. They should be online by most evenings, commencing on Wednesday.

Good luck…