GRAND NATIONAL DAY

SATURDAY APRIL 5th

It might be the Grand National but to the professional gambler it is just another horserace. As such it is treated accordingly.

Professionals dissect races they are interested in, reducing the field to those that in their opinions can win and eliminating those that can’t. Once they have stripped the field bare, they take a look to see if they can narrow it down further until they might be left with a handful of serious runners and hopefully the winner.

To do this the professional assessor has to take an opinion and not to be frightened to be wrong. Remember, the man who is worried about being wrong is very often never right. Fence-sitting is for politicians and civil servants.

So herewith my own version of Saturday’s big race: The Crabbie’s Grand National.

Forty are scheduled to line-up, which may include one or more of the four reserves. With the chances of many of the runners looking remote at best, let’s see if we can turn forty into ten. To do this we have to adopt a ruthless approach, but it can be done and result in a pot of gold. After all, a ten-runner horse race where bookmakers are offering 8/1 the field drastically shifts the odds in favour of the punter.

These are the runners from my viewpoint, and you may be surprised by some of the exclusions.

TIDAL BAY:

Has to buck age and weight trends to win. Carrying top weight of 11st 10lbs and at the age of thirteen, he faces a Herculean task – but since joining the excellent Paul Nicholls he has seemed better than ever.

Gone are the moods, the tantrums and the quirky traits that for so long made him a dubious betting proposition. A colossal effort under top weight in the Welsh Grand National in December was followed up by an honourable second in Ireland in a Grade 1 early in February. Rested since, he cannot be disregarded. The most likely scenario is that he will finish in the first six but that his weight will anchor him. Even so, he will expose weaknesses in many of his rivals.

LONG RUN:

Is the one horse in the line-up that will have us muttering in our beards – and beers – how obvious it was when he wins.

As a dual King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner that is only nine and runs from a lower mark than when he rattled up the first of those Kempton wins in 2011, the handicapper has opened the door for him now.

Representing the all-powerful Nicky Henderson stable, he can be relied upon to have been well prepared for this task. Although his jumping is not always bombproof, he will have been schooled over replica Aintree fences at home and is the sort to rise to the occasion.

His excellent rider emphasised his worth over these fences when winning the Fox Hunter Chase on Thursday and, granted a smidgen of luck and on this drying ground, he could be too classy despite his burden.

ROCKY CREEK:

Completes the trio of classy horses not normally associated with this event. Second in the Hennessy at Newbury in November on only the first of two runs this season, he should line up as a fresh contender that has been prepared with this in mind.

The ground will be ideal and, having never fallen in twelve chases, his jumping has already withstood the test of time. He may have a few pounds too many in the handicap but his class is undeniable and if he is one of three or four at the last, he is the one lesser rivals will have to pass.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE:

Holds more of a technical chance than a realistic one. But efforts here (in the Betfred Bowl and when winning as a novice) and in Ireland in top company suggest at his best he could go well. This is his time of year.

DOUBLE SEVEN:

Something of a dark horse that has progressed through the ranks in Ireland and is catapulted into the big time now. On what he has achieved his mark seems fair and he could easily surpass it. Two doubts remain. He has yet to prove he stays this far – a remark that applies to many – and his jumping can still be a little dicey at times. However, don’t let that put you off too much. This course has a habit of focusing the sloppy but talented horse and as the choice of Tony McCoy he could not be in better hands. Even so he is a bit of a guess.

BURTON PORT:

And talking of guesses, enter this one-time RSA second and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up, whose last win was in the Mildmay Chase here in 2010 when rated 152. Having slipped to a mark of 145, clearly a return to anything approaching that form would make him a blot at the weights.

The problem is, since then he has suffered a leg injury and, at the age of ten, he gives the impression the best is behind him. However a reasonable effort in a veterans’ event last time gives some cause for optimism for his supporters although he will need to find more now. Given his connections that is not impossible and success is not a total pipe dream.

PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE:

Another with a chance on his best form but that seems to be over the horizon and far away these days. However, he does have a dash of class if he can recover it (latest run suggests he is no back number) and would be dangerous if crossing the last alongside a bunch of camels.

LION NA BEARNAI:

Is another that will need to wind the clock back to win. However this former Irish Grand National has already shown he can grind it out when others are crying enough. Weighted to the hilt but ridden by a jockey at the top of his form, if it turns into an old-fashioned National going to the last man standing, one of the more likely ones.

THE PACKAGE:

Creeps in to this with an attractive weight and is another that could test his rivals if it turned into a slog from the last. Fell at the nineteenth here on his previous visit in 2010 and has a patchy record since. Lines up on the back of a decent comeback run at Cheltenham last month. Possibly a place is the best he could obtain, but on his best form does have a chance.

ROSE OF THE MOON:

Risky but credible outsider that could outrun his odds. He completed the course when running in the Becher Chase in December so may be capable of making some sort of impact at these weights.

That is my shortlist, which excludes several currently fancied runners. Why?

Let’s take Teaforthree. He was third off a 3lbs higher mark last year, but has not won in his three runs since – admittedly including a run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when out of his league. However, this year’s race is potentially a much better renewal than last year so he is unlikely to better his position now and could easily struggle to even maintain it.

Monbeg Dude is an old-fashioned staying chaser that peaked in December at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 handicap from an 8lbs lower mark. Life is tougher now and he has plenty to do with Teaforthree on old form. Balthazar King would be a popular winner for Richard Johnson but on his last visit here he burned himself out by tearing off too quickly. Again, his qualities seem confined to staying or cross-country events where the vast majority of his opponents are geriatric or slow.

I have attempted to include outsiders, but essentially I see the race concerning the class acts, who may dominate. Not all will cross the last in a line, but one of them at least is likely to slip the tangled net of misfortune and drama that could foil their bids.

Assuming I have highlighted the right ten runners, this is how bookmakers might price up the race should the other thirty not be taking part:

3/1 LONG RUN
4/1 TIDAL BAY
9/2 ROCKY CREEK
7/1 DOUBLE SEVEN
10/1 BURTON PORT
16/1 QUITO DE LA ROQUE
16/1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
16/1 LION NA BEARNAI
20/1 THE PACKAGE
33/1 ROSE OF THE MOON

These odds are based on a 110% book. Okay, allow a few points on the prices for error and add or subtract at your discretion. But the value plainly appears to lie with the three market leaders: Long Run, Tidal Bay and Rocky Creek. Currently available at 14/1 or even a shade bigger for looking, Long Run is the selection.

Tomorrow is not solely about the Grand National, although, of course, for many it is the only race in town.

AINTREE: 1.30:

A cracking Grade 1 novice event kicks off the card. Over this trip of 2m 4f, Volnay De Thaix looks sure to improve. A tenuous form line through Splash Of Ginge suggests he may have something to find with Dell’ Arca; however, he has been brought along steadily for this event whereas it could be argued Dell’ Arca comes here after a busy campaign.

2.05:

Trifolium gets a chance for consolation for what was a big effort in the Arkle. His class shines through here and only an off day would prevent him beating lesser rivals.

2.50:

Racing gets distinctly harder after this, the last of the Grade 1 events at the meeting. Whilst At Fishers Cross lines up with solid credentials after a shaky start to the season, Whisper is the horse improving through the ranks. He has only a little to find on these rivals and can throw his hat into the ring with a massive performance now.

LINGFIELD

Exchequer should open his account in the 1.15. After three promising runs as a juvenile, including when second to Kingston Hill, this should be an ideal stepping stone on the way to better things.

3.40:

Barley Mow should win this but American Hope shaped well two weeks ago when a staying on second to the highly-regarded Ertijaal. This trip will suit and he has an improving profile and the right pedigree to test the favourite, who may be sharper on another occasion.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY TWO (Friday)

(posted Thursday 4.15pm)

2.00: International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices’ Hurdle:

Although never heralded as being at the top of the novice tree within the powerful Nicky Henderson camp, Josses Hill has quickly scaled the heights after his novice win, competing in Grade 1 company on his remaining two runs and finishing runner-up on each occasion. His second to Vautor in the Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham is the best form on offer here and his habit of finding for pressure makes him the one to beat now.

Sergeant Reckless was only one-and-a-half lengths away in fourth at Cheltenham having made up a great deal of ground from an unpromising position. However, his habit of running in snatches may find him out round here. Art Of Payroll and Baltimore Rock are seen as bigger dangers.

2.30: Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices’ Chase:

Despite a small field, all six in the line-up have claims of sorts. RSA winner O’Faolains Boy takes a long time to warm up. As a hard ride that is invariably on and off the bridle, he may find this quick track far from ideal.

The progressive Holywell and Wonderful Charm (who can probably be forgiven an on the face of it below par run last time when hampered at Cheltenham) look less complicated rivals.

Many Clouds was never in a comfortable rhythm last time at Cheltenham in the RSA and that run is best overlooked. On the strength of his effort at Ascot when a two-and-half length runner-up to O’Faolains Boy conceding 4lbs he enters the reckoning once again.
A bold front runner, he will be suited by this track and a big run is expected. Holywell is taken to complete the four-timer. Although not without chances, Don Cossack and Just A Par look less likely winners than the remaining four.

3.05: Betfred Melling Chase:

Module and Rajdhani Express come here on the back of two excellent efforts at Cheltenham and both will have their supporters.

The question those looking to play here will have to ask is which run was the better: Module’s third to Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother Chase over what looked like an inadequate trip, or Rajdhani Express’s third to Dynaste in the Ryanair?

Both will have to operate at maximum strength to win, but taken as an overall package Module has a more tempting profile and is the selection.

Although as a Grade 1 the composition of the field leaves something to be desired, the opposition makes up more than numbers and is not that far adrift from the standard set by the two principals. Once again, this is not a cut-and-dried event to solve.

3.40: Crabbie’s Topham Chase:

As always, run over the Grand National fences, we are presented with a knotty problem here. Currently bookmakers are betting 10/1 the field, which seems an accurate enough assessment.

Ma Filleule recovered with real spirit to come back from an error last time at Cheltenham when only going down narrowly to Holywell. Raised 7lbs since, she may still be able to propel herself into the firing line once more but this race is fiercely competitive.

4.15: Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle:

This trip of three miles will expose any stamina limitations. For that reason, having looked to find 2m 6f too far at Thurles last time, Giantofaman is bypassed. Beat That shapes as if likely to stay, whereas Capote and Seeyouatmidnight – both of whom have been saved for this meeting – have already won over today’s trip. Others enter the reckoning, making this a hard race to call.

The middle day of this three-day festival always threatened to be the hardest to crack and that is how it looks. Josses Hill and Module are nominated as the best chances on the day from this quarter but are not necessarily advanced as bets.

It is tempting to oppose O’Faolains Boy in the Mildmay. Holywell may provide the biggest danger but Many Clouds should not be dismissed lightly. And that is the metre of the day, which is constructed of races that are hard to solve in one hit. After a near miss with Diakali on Thursday, it looks like it is all to play for on Saturday…
Good luck with your selections.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY ONE (Thursday)

Here we go once again for the rollercoaster that is Aintree. With four Grade 1s on the first day card, backed up by two competitive handicaps and the hunter chase that is the Foxhunters, there is something for everyone…

2.00:

Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle: All eyes will be on Calipto here after a catalogue of disasters in the Triumph Hurdle. Beaten eight lengths at Cheltenham, his misfortune started at the second when he was impeded and was then compounded when a stirrup leather snapped at the top of the hill.

After the race most observers claimed he looked unlucky and would have arguably beaten Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete but for the intervention of bad luck.

Such thinking can be dangerous: time and again the form book has the last word; although, there is a suspicion that Calipto may re-write a part of it now. We shall see… Guitar Pete has run to a similar level all season and looks guaranteed to be in the mix once again.

A little over three lengths behind Calipto at Newbury on his hurdling debut, Actival has been saved for this. After his authoritative win in the Adonis at Kempton he is not far short of the best of his age and could be the biggest danger to Calipto. On the face of it the three mentioned appear to be the runners, although the improving Fox Norton could enter calculations. Whilst respecting Calipto, Actival looks the logical each-way alternative.

2.30: Betfred Bowl:

So often this event can throw up a surprise. Such a scenario looks unlikely this year as Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti stand out – the inference being one or the other must come out on top. Narrow preference is for Dynaste.

To a degree Argocat is the dark horse that is open to improvement. Even so he has plenty to find if he is to figure. The remaining three will need to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. Last year’s winner First Lieutenant is the scavenger waiting to steal the scraps. He invariably runs his race but can only be considered if the front two underperform; whereas neither Menorah nor Houblon Des Obeaux have shown form approaching this level.

3.05: Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

After Calipto in the opener, The New One is the second so-called unlucky Cheltenham loser to line up here. With a trip likely to play to his strengths, after the setback on Boxing Day at Kempton and the broadside he received in the Champion Hurdle, this is his chance.

Fearful of an avalanche of bets in his favour, bookmakers have priced him up as if he is a near certainty. As a result they have overlooked the wild card that is Diakali, who is available at a tempting 12/1 with Coral as I write and 9/1 elsewhere.

Surely these odds are out of kilter with the horse’s chance. The Willie Mullins representative ran a massive race at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle under top weight and his two-and-a-quarter length third to Jezki – over this trip – in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse gives him a strict chance with the favourite, who was almost three lengths behind Jezki at Cheltenham after his much publicised troublesome passage. Those making a case for anything else (including Rock On Ruby) are liable to be barking up the wrong tree. In what is seen as a two-horse contest, even allowing for the fact that any attempt to bet each-way is likely to be thwarted (excludes each-way multiple bets though) Diakali has to be the call at the prices.

3.40: Crabbie’s Fox Hunter’s Chase:

No doubt those acquainted with hunter chaser form can nominate each-way alternatives to the favourite here; but, granted a clear round, the decision to re-route Mossey Joe for this instead of targeting the Grand National is likely to pay its own dividend. He is not perceived as a betting prospect for those of us that don’t don red coats and breeches on bank holidays, but looks a solid favourite.

4.15: Silver Cross Red Rum Handicap Chase:

History shows a shock is more than possible in this. Cutting through the opposition, Sound Investment has a progressive profile and could be the one to concentrate on for those bold enough to play. Claret Cloak blundered away his chance in the Grand Annual at the second-last but has been raised 4lbs for the privilege and faces a similarly stiff task today.

4.50: Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

Temperament and a sketchy past record means Arkle winner Western Warhorse will not be short of detractors here. Stepping up in trip to 2m 4f (might be a problem if he decides to take a tug), those intent on backing him will do well to do so at SP – which will surely outstrip current cramped odds. With two serious contenders in the shadows, many will nominate him as the lay of the day.
Uxizandre performed well at the Festival when second to Taquin Du Seuill in the JLT where Oscar Whisky tipped up at the first. Effective in small fields, Oscar Whisky claimed the scalp of Taquin Du Seuill at Cheltenham in January and it is entirely possible he will regain the winning thread here. Along with Uxizandre his presence means there will be no hiding place for the Arkle winner.

5.25: Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

This represents a precarious end to the day as far as punters are concerned. Principal contenders appear to be the Irish duo Jetson and Busty Brown.

Although hard to fancy, now returned to timber from a favourable mark, Riverside Theatre is the sort to represent Nicky Henderson with credit, whilst Doctor Harper is on the upgrade.

A case can be constructed for the appropriately named Spirit Of Shankly. In all, for those anxious to continue playing, the advice would be to lob a few quid on the last-named at a sporting price. The sensible advice from this befuddled corner would be to leave the race alone.

So from a betting perspective, although ideas may transmogrify once racing gets underway, at this stage I am nominating two value bets in Actival and Diakal.

Take it easy on what might be a trickier day than it looks…

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING 2014

(posted Monday evening 7pm)

This historic meeting kicks off on Thursday – and it is straight into top quality action with the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at 2.00. With Zarkandar, Walkon, Binocular, Katchit and Detroit City among winners in recent years, this is an event often claimed by an obvious contender.

Cheltenham Festival runners have a good record (seven out of the last ten have obliged). Many will be anxious to recover Cheltenham losses with Calipto, who was travelling strongly when his jockey became the victim of a slipping saddle in the Triumph.

He will doubtless be heavily supported to make amends but may have to face Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete for a second time.

Betfred Bowl Chase:

In contrast to the opening event, this is often won by the right horse on the right day. That is to say it can be a consolation prize.

This proved to be the case for the likes of First Lieutenant, Follow The Plan, Nacarat and Exotic Dancer – all of whom had been beaten at the highest level coming into the race. Even so they could be relied upon to produce their best form against higher profile rivals that came here after long seasons.

The Pipe stable has farmed four of the last ten runnings, and will field the favourite in Dynaste – who was a winner at this meeting last year.

Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

For anyone unaware of the name – Doom Bar is a particularly tasty bitter that is brewed in Cornwall. Those yet to acquaint themselves of this brew should redress such an oversight as soon as possible.

As for the race, it is the third of four Grade 1 events on the day. The key factor is the step up in trip for Champion Hurdle contenders that are now faced with 2m 4f.

For that reason it does not always pay to rely on Cheltenham form. Only two favourites have obliged over the last ten years (both of those joint favs) but that’s not to say the race favours outsiders.

Irish runners have a good record – they have won five of the last ten renewals. Assuming Annie Power will wait for Punchestown, many will consider this race to be tailor-made for The New One.

Crabbie’s Fox Hunters’ Chase:

Step forward the hero of the Aintree hour in Crabbies’, the alcoholic ginger beer manufacturer that has injected extra lashings of fizz into the meeting by their sponsorship.

This could be one of the races where spectators may want to avail themselves of their product as it invariably favours bookmakers over punters. Last year it was won by a 100/1 shot; in 2010 by a 50/1 chance. Otherwise three of the last ten runnings have resulted in a winning favourite, so the race can supply predictable results to a degree. It does help to have some knowledge of hunter chasing in general and, possibly more importantly, in a race where jockeyship can be paramount, of the riders involved.

Red Rum Handicap Chase:

One way or another, stand by for an unexpected result here. This handicap has thrown up three big price winners in the last ten years (two 20/1 chances and a 25/1 shot) as well as four winning favourites (including co-favs). It is invariably not an easy race to solve.

Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

With only five year’s results to go by, it is a little premature to pinpoint any real trends but so far this, the fourth of the Grade 1s on the day, has gone pretty much according to the script.

Captain Conan won it last year. Trainers Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have won two races apiece. Tartak, in the inaugural running in 2009, was the biggest priced-winner to date for his trainer Tom George.

Plenty will be prepared to oppose Arkle winner Western Warhorse here. Oscar Whisky should be more suited to this track than Cheltenham, but the Irish challenge is potentially a strong one.

Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

A tough three mile hurdle closes the day. This is one of the harder races to get right. Six of the last ten winners have returned at double-figure prices. To balance this out, the other four went to favourites. Unless you unearth a potential blot in the handicap – you know the risk you run when betting in events such as this.

Day Two:

The day starts with a Grade 2 novice hurdle over two miles sponsored by the International Festival for Business. Nicky Henderson has won the last two runnings, with My Tent Or Yours last year and Darlan before that.

With General Miller having supplied a win for Seven Barrows in 2010, Henderson, a top man at this track, will hope to be represented by Josses Hill this time. The opposition is potentially strong. If turning up, Arctic Fire and possibly Cheltenham flop Irving would count as two serious dangers.

It is back to a Grade 1 with the Betfred Mildmay Novices’ Chase. Five of the last ten favourites have obliged for punters, including Dynaste last year. He was preceded by Silvianco Conti in 2012. There have been no real shocks in this over the past ten years. Six of the last ten winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival. A small field seems likely this year.

The Grade 1 Betfred Melling Chase

appears on statistics to be one of the more punter-friendly races with five of the last ten events going to the favourite.

However, with a roll-call that includes top two-milers like Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded and Moscow Flyer, that figure could be misleading. There is nothing of that calibre in this year’s line-up, a race that could well suit Queen Mother third Module over this extended trip.

Topham Chase:

Fifty percent of the last ten winners have been double-figure big prices, which is hardly surprising considering they often bet 10/1 the field.

This is also something of an oddity of a race, being as it is run over the in-between trip of 2m 6f and over the Grand National fences. This can be one of the hardest races at the meeting to call, although that does not prevent punters from piling in.

Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Chase:

At Fishers Cross last year and Black Jack Ketchum in 2006 were the only winning favourites in ten years. There have been four big price winners of this Grade 1 over three miles – often run on quick conditions.

Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle:

Punters are often in need of medication after this has been run. There have been no winning favourites in the last ten years. Sunnyhill Boy at 8/1 was the lowest-priced winner in 2009. 2013 Grand National winner, Aurora’s Encore prevailed in 2008 at odds of 50/1. A race to be wary of.

Concerto Group Mares’ Standard NH Flat Race:

A Flat race for mares – what joy to bring down the curtain on the second day’s proceedings! Turbo Linn in 2007 is the only winning favourite to date. Bring on the Doom Bar!

Grand National Saturday:

Pertemps Network Novices’ Hurdle: Elevated this year to a Grade 1, again the trip of 2m 4f could be partly responsible for some big-priced past winners. Ubak surprised at 22/1 last year. Bouggler won at 16/1 in 2009 and Turpin Green was also something of a shock when winning in 2005 at odds of 14/1. Otherwise there have been three winning favourites and fancied winners in the shape of Simonsig in 2012, Spirit Son in 2011, Elusive Dream in 2008 and Tidal Bay in 2007. The overall impression is that this is a solvable contest if the field is right.

Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase:

Another Grade 1, this time over two miles. Several likely candidates are doubly engaged throughout the meeting, so at this stage it is a question of seeing who turns up.

A small field is likely. There have been five winning favourites in the last ten years – last year’s winner Special Tiara being the only blot in a race that otherwise favours punters.

Silver Cross Stayer’s Hurdle Grade 1:

At 11/2 in 2005, Monet’s Garden was the biggest-priced winner. Four-time winner Big Buck’s and dual-winner Mighty Man give this a wobbly shape as far as betting figures are concerned. More Of That would be popular if turning up; in his absence, At Fishers Cross (same ownership) would probably line up as favourite.

Having improved with every run this year, Whisper would be the dark horse.

And a word of possible interest here. Whisper’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, has an enviable record at this meeting. For that reason it pays to scrutinise his representatives carefully over the week. Bear in mind he is often successful with those runners that are not obvious and at first glance appear to hold only average chances. He often does well in the handicaps.

Betfred TV Handicap Chase:

Only the racing authorities could plan or sanction this!

Here we have a handicap chase over the Mildmay fences run as a curtain-raiser for the Grand National, fifty minutes in advance of the big race of the meeting. Don’t be surprised if there is a shortage of jockeys wishing to take part in this, or a shortage for their scheduled mounts in the Grand National after it. And be prepared for a turn up!

Crabbie’s Grand National:

To a degree luck plays a big part, although the right horse often makes its own luck in this. The poser set for punters is to nominate the right horse for the occasion.

Often first-timers to the track have the edge, so class acts like Rocky Creek and Long Run could be of interest this year.

Aged thirteen and carrying 11st 10lbs, Tidal Bay will have to buck sensible statistics to win.

The favourite, Tea For Three had his chance last year when third and faces stiffer competition this time round.

With a couple of better handicapped contenders (Godsmejudge and Same Difference) now absentees, but worth bearing in mind for events like the Bet 365 Chase at Sandown or the Ayr National, it could be a case of the cream rising to the top in the form of either of the two mentioned.

Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders):

Cockney Sparrow was a winning favourite last year, Lifestyle the 28/1 winner in 2013. The kind of event that could throw up anything! If you are not already in a queue to collect winnings from the Grand National, it could be you shouldn’t be in one to place a bet in this.

Weatherbys Private Banking Champion NH Flat Race:

With winners at 33/1, 50/1, 28/1and 20/1, the past results speak for themselves.

This is not a race for punters tempted to punch their way out of trouble. That said, if there is any cash left, Modus is better than his running at Cheltenham might suggest and is likely to take more of a hand at the finish now if turning up. He does have the four-year-old hoodoo to defy.

These are some preliminary thoughts and ideas for the coming week. We hope you find them useful and that they may help focus you in the right direction.

We shall be posting Free Tips for each day. They should be online by most evenings, commencing on Wednesday.

Good luck…