April Results 2014

April 25th:

Sandown Results

A cracking card was compromised to a degree by persistent rain. It opened with the Class 2 Esher Cup, for which impressive Nottingham winner Sacred Act – recently supplemented for the St James’s Palace Stakes – was the market pick. Holes could be picked in the race he won last time (both his main rivals having pulled too hard and failing to finish), but by all accounts the winning debutant had barely been asked a question at home beforehand. In this elevated company it has to be said he was never a factor.

What About Carlo, last seen when three lengths fourth of five in the Haynes, Hanson and Clark at Newbury and a winner in the soft at Goodwood, was always handy and stayed on strongly to contain opposition long on potential but short on form. Rated 85 today, these conditions suit well.

End Of Line stayed on best of the rest for second and on this evidence, despite a quick pedigree, saw out this mile.

First Flight arrived with what looked like a serious challenge two out but it petered away. By Invincible Spirit he has handled the ground but may not have stayed this far. Sacred Act reportedly hated the ground. He is worth another chance, although his mark assumes plenty.

In his time Noble Mission has been labelled a bigger monkey than King Kong. Ridden from the front on this occasion Frankel’s well-documented brother made all in the Group 3 Gordon Richards, never seeing another rival. It is tempting to think these tactics might be the making of him, but that has yet to be confirmed. Certainly they worked today.

Despite a negative message, over an inadequate trip, connections will take some heart from the run of Telescope, who plugged on for second without ever looking likely to bridge the gap.

Contributer ran well in third. Fit from an outing at Kempton, he looked likely to throw down a serious challenge halfway down the straight but to an extent floundered on the ground. He can do better still.

It was a familiar story with the Godolphin representative Sky Hunter. Third to Intello in the French Derby and out of action for ten months, despite attracting all the so-called clever money, he laboured like a miner at the end of a twelve-hour shift. Talk of the Prince Of Wales seems fanciful.

All the signs are that this year’s Lincoln was a class event. Runner-up Tullius became its biggest flagship bearer when beating some higher-profile rivals in the Group 2 Mile. He does handle soft and capitalised on the inability of several of his opponents to fire.

Montiridge came with a run of sorts but spluttered on ground he handles but that is not ideal. This was a satisfactory return to action.

Penitent ran his usual big race on ground he loves. Top Notch Tonto had his ground but was reported to be in need of the outing so early in the season. Once the summer weather kicks in, he will be hard to place.

Garswood looked well but, held up, ran poorly. A winner first time out last year and with a proven record on this sort of surface, this has to go down as a shocking effort.

Western Hymn brought a semblance of sanity back to a mucky day when winning the Classic Trial. Good news first: On a day when nothing finished from the rear, Western Hymn’s turn of foot allowed him to do just that; although his win did nothing to promote his Classic claims.

Once he hit the front, he did jink and it took a reminder to straighten him out. After that he lengthened away without looking impressive. It now seems safe to say he will stay twelve furlongs. With a round action, he should not have been inconvenienced by the ground, although his jockey was adamant he will be better on a faster surface. The Derby will probably come too soon but he remains a horse with plenty of potential who, all being well, takes in the Dante next after which we will know more.

Impulsive Moment left a Lingfield maiden well behind him in second, with a flattered Greenham third, Master Carpenter, next to finish. Red Galileo lacks a finishing kick.

Considering he was out of his depth, Automated (second at Newbury under an enterprising ride) was not disgraced. In finishing fifth he has played a back-handed compliment to Eagle Top, who runs in a handicap at Leicester on Saturday from a mark of 90.

Having finished sixth in the Super Sprint at Newbury when last seen, Eccleston was one of those winners that as there to be seen but got away in the Class 2 handicap over five furlongs. In a race where they were strung out like novice hurdlers, Eccleston defied the mark of 88 with something to spare.

As it turned out – and with the poorly handicapped Hey Chewed in second – the race may not have been that good. That said it would be unwise to write off the winner next time if turned out under a penalty and on a similar surface which brings out the best in him.

The maiden for fillies – often an informative event – looked only ordinary this year, although that could be a reflection on the ground. Kallisha – a Whipper filly – opened her account from Nancy For Nairobi (fourth to Inchila at Newbury) and What A Scorcher (only a semblance of ability last year in her maiden).

Grace And Favour weakened inside the last furlong; whereas Allegria made up a lot of ground from the rear to display some promise in fifth.

The last race on a dank day – a Class 3 handicap – featured several unexposed types and Windshear, who had finished second to the useful Cloudscape at the Craven meeting. Turned out relatively quickly from the same mark – that of 80, due to rise to 86 – he was a warm order.

Always handy he eventually cleared away under Richard Hughes to boost Newmarket form that already looks strong. This was only his third run and even a revised mark will not halt his obvious progress. He will stay further than ten furlongs and easy ground will always be of benefit. Collaboration stayed on to deprive Elite Army of second. In a decent handicap, Gothic posted promise in fourth.
April 23rd:

Epsom Results

Course-walkers pronounced the normally favoured stands’ side to be a disadvantage in the depleted field (fifteen became ten) in the Class 3 five furlong handicap. Consequently there were some hesitant riders from the start, resulting in a half-hearted event.

Drawn against the rail, Adam Kirby adopted a when-in-doubt-blast-out-and-kick policy aboard Caspian Prince on whom he made all. Elusivity and Face Value were next with Pearl Blue, who was last until two furlongs out, picking up strongly from an impossible position to take fourth. Not known for winning first time out, although she looked well, this run will doubtless tee her up for a pop at a similar event. She may appreciate a stiffer track.

There were four defectors in the Great Metropolitan (three were highest drawn – just a coincidence surely) leaving a field of eleven.

Beacon Lady – a five-time winner at Brighton and also once here – clearly likes undulating tracks. She bolted up from Da Do Run Run and Dark Ruler. You could argue Red Runaway had his chance scuppered when Jakey took his ground two out. However, the ease of the winner’s victory suggests Red Runaway – who did not look obviously full of running once in the clear – would not have found much in any case.

The smallest in the field, Our Channel (not unbacked at big prices) caused something of an upset in the Derby trial, handling the track, making most of the running and hanging on under a vigorous and positive Moore ride to withstand the late challenge of Marzocco.

The runner-up closed on cloying ground and could be adjudged unlucky. Stars Over The Sea, Signposted and a reluctant looking Hartnell were all close up. According to Deidre Johnston, Hartnell finished distressed so this could not be considered his true running. In the light of Munjaz’s win last week, the already gelded Moontime was entitled to do better but was quick to check out.

What developed into a tricky day just got trickier with the win of Sennockian Star from Clayton in the City and Surburban. These two had clashed at Pontefract two weeks earlier, neither looking particularly well-treated here. They were in the first four throughout in a race where those held up failed to land a blow. Soviet Rock was third.

Ravenous won a weak-looking maiden at the fifth time of asking. Moshe, who had finished sixth to Chatez (runner in the last) at Newbury, ran on encouragingly in second. There should be a race somewhere for him, be it on the all-weather or up the M1. After promise in two maidens at Kempton last year, D’avignon was hopelessly at sea and well beaten. Reluctant in the stalls, he was always off the bridle. Whatever excuse can be concocted, he is one to be wary of at present.

Chatez made some sense of the afternoon’s proceedings by taking the Class 4 handicap in handsome style. Having beaten Observational last season (admittedly flattered) a mark of 78 left plenty of margin for error.

19th April:

Kempton Results

There was a good word for Escalating in the Brocklesby; although disappointing at Doncaster, he made no mistake in the opening event. A good-sized son of Three Valleys, he was too good for Be Bold, who had shown promise at Newbury behind Kasb.

By Dubawi out of a Green Desert mare, five furlongs always threatened to find out Colour Catcher. Only small, he was outpaced until freewheeling into third under a considerate ride inside the last furlong. Given the first two were older and had experience, this was not a bad effort and one he should better over an extra furlong.

Zurigha won a slowly-run listed Snowdrop Stakes, greatly assisted by holding a prominent position throughout. In contrast, Ribbons had ground to recover and she allowed the winner first run. Hers was a satisfactory reappearance over a trip that is probably on the short side.

Ryan Moore is riding in top form at present. Brilliant on Grandeur yesterday, on Sea Shanty today, he again rode Queen Of Ice assuredly in the four-runner conditions event. By Selkirk, making all to beat Midnite Angel, she was presumably sent here in search of a forgiving surface.

Zampa Manos, narrowly beaten by Passing Star who ran so well against Ertijaal yesterday, made all to keep a persistent Snow Trouble at bay in the conditions stakes.

Wolverhampton winner Hagree held the favourite God Willing for third. Like many of Arch’s pedigree, God Willing looks better than he is. Impressive on debut at Newbury, although highly tried since, there is no sign he has gone on. He ran all right, but at present (last year he was unfurnished), he has to be considered an under-achiever.

18th April:

Lingfield Results

Abundant prize-money supplied by bookmakers desperate not to have a blank day made it a strong Good Friday card.

Possible Guineas hope Ertijaal won the class 2 conditions event over seven furlongs in fair style. Looking tighter than on his reappearance, he put up a similar performance, always looking too good for his opponents and winning with a little in hand.

With a mark of 100 before this, he is scaling the ratings, looking like a 107 horse at least. There remains the question as to whether he will be as effective over a mile but on balance that seems likely.

Passing Star lost his unbeaten record but was far from discredited in second. He was jabbing away at the winner inside the last furlong. In third, Pool House replicated his run of last time with the winner, beaten an identical distance.

Although running well, American Hope was only fourth this time and again looked to be running out of gas in the closing stages. When only beaten a head by Ertijaal last time he had the benefit of a run under his belt. He has ability but may not be that easy to place.

Captain Cat only had one horse behind him when starting his wide sweep of a run on the outside a furlong out. His turn of foot was decisive, putting those that were fighting it out in the shade. His trainer had been patient and such a policy was rewarded with this valuable prize. His form is already solid and this win from 99 further underlines his future claims. He could easily be good enough to contest pattern company, but apparently a more immediate target is the Hunt Cup.

Despite reservations about his resolution, Grandeur toughed it out to take the Class 2 Conditions race.

He had to dig deep to beat Dick Doughtywylie, whom he headed close home. Robins Hood Bay and Solar Deity ran solid races in third and fourth.

April 17th:

Newmarket Results

On looks, in the class 4 for juvenile fillies, victory went to one of the least likely in Spirit Of Xian who was all legs and went to post as if her tail was on fire.

It was a bunch finish with Al Ghuwariyah and El Che close up along with once-raced London Life. The race looked ordinary by this track’s standards. Favourite, Lacing, was undone by a tardy start and was soon out of contention. She did pick up and finish, giving the impression a small race awaits.

It took a while for Farhh’s full-brother Basem to get the message in the Wood Ditton – the race where horses that have thought up to now their sole purpose in life is to eat, sleep and do the odd bit of work, changes such perceptions.

As usual a number took the eye. The winner got going late under a decent De Sousa ride to collar Made With Love and Moonvoy.

A Derby quote about a horse with a dubious staying pedigree is taking the proverbial. On this evidence he might turn out to be decent. It is worth bearing in mind (and he does resemble his brother) that Farhh – a big horse with plenty of substance up top – did not realise his potential until he was four. Accordingly they might tread with care as they plot Basem’s future. From just off the pace, Prince Of Stars and Famous Kid were noted staying on in encouraging fashion.

There was plenty of depth in the Tattersalls Millions Trophy won by Sudden Wonder – another high profile three-year-old scorer for Godolphin. Below top class last year (no reason to suppose it will be a different story now), his three runs to date nevertheless demonstrated he was useful.

In second, Observational was the eye-catcher. A big flashy son of Galileo with just one run under his belt, he was still green and unbalanced on occasion. He came there with a powerful run inside the last furlong and made the winner pull out all the stops.

Always highly thought of, he can improve on this and looks a quality prospect. A galloping track will suit him best.

Seagull Star has obviously wintered well and stayed on in third. Johann Struass ran poorly in sixth; although form book students will point to the fact that, negative ride or not on the day in question, he was behind Seagull Star on debut and only ran to that form here. More pressing as a comment is the fact he is known to be highly strung. One assumes he will shake off the maiden tag eventually but he is becoming expensive to follow.

As a five-year-old the decision to switch Aljamaaheer to sprinting so late in the day seemed somewhat surprising.

Apparently he had been working the house down at home and the Abernant he contested looked to be one of the weaker renewals. Even so, Hamza has a proven record in this sort of company and, aware of the possible pitfalls with the favourite, Jamie Spencer sent him on in blitz-style from the start to stretch his main rival.

Unfortunately, Hanagan fell foul of the ruse, riding Aljamaaheer as if he was in a seven furlong event. Too far out of his ground, rapidly though he closed, it was mission impossible from a furlong and a half out. Not short of a turn of foot, there is every reason to suppose Aljamaaheer will make his mark at sprinting if connections persevere.

Woken up by Ryan Moore, Toormore maintained an unbeaten record in the Craven, regaining the lead when headed by The Grey Gatsby over a furlong out. Apparently he is yet to come to himself at home

(Greenham runner-up Night Of Thunder said to be working better on the lead-up to this), so the outing should freshen him up. Carrying a 3lbs penalty, as a performance this can’t be derided but it will need improving upon in what looks like a strong Guineas this year.

The Grey Gatsby has run as well as ever in second (chased Outstrip in the Champagne at Doncaster).

The one to take the eye with a view to the future was Postponed. Second to Oklahoma City last year after winning a Yarmouth maiden, he is bred to appreciate further. Slow to stride, he was doing all his best work in the closing stages. He will get ten furlongs and probably stay twelve. We will know more about him after he has contested a Derby trial, but it will be surprising if he fails to land a decent prize somewhere along the way this year.

Once-raced Patentar was not disgraced in fourth. Anjal was never seen with a chance.

Be Ready (said to have outworked yesterday’s winner True Story at home) was the first beaten. Saddled with the mantle of being Godolphin’s best Classic hope – a big flashy chestnut that can always get work in Hollywood as a second career – he lost his action and ran as if something was amiss.

Mull Of Kintyre came back to his best for to land the Group 3 he claimed last year. French Navy tried to close but was left with too much to do. Despite an awkward head carriage, Fencing was third, only weakening in the last furlong.

Over an inadequate trip, Gospel Choir finished best of all in fourth. Nine furlongs is plainly short of his best trip and significant improvement can be expected after this pipe opener when returning to twelve furlongs.

The market told its story with Just The Judge; even so, she checked out rather quickly.

Hadaatha repaid her trainer’s patience with a winning appearance in the seven furlong maiden. This Sea The Stars filly has always been considered decent – something she showed in abundance here. The run should bring her on and she has the size to progress.

Placed in two maiden last year and fancied, Eastern Belle came here with reasonable form. Her run in second adds credence to the race.

Several took the eye in behind. Notably Solar Magic and Ramshackle gave every indication they are capable of winning before long.

They knew what they were doing with Cloudscape in the Class 3 handicap. Well backed after winning his maiden at Kempton, he made light of a mark of 85.

Travelling powerfully throughout, although he did not clear away, he was always on top and won like a horse capable of winning a strong handicap.

Windshear was the one to test him most. The pair were clear of a decent field headed by Volume.

April 16th:

Newmarket Results

Provident Spirit extended the current run of the John Gosden yard with a cosy success in the Alex Scott Maiden.

The race did not tell us much. Entitled to improve after a promising debut at Doncaster, the winner has an action that suggests this ground was as fast as he can comfortably handle. A strong son of Invincible Spirit he was too good for the opposition, who look handicappers.

At halfway those with experience threatened to dominate the juvenile event but that quickly changed. Debutant Mind Of Madness – by Azamour but out of an Oasis Dream mare – swooped on Abscent Friends and Harry Hurricane. The third overturned Leicester form with Flyball (fractious in the stalls) on 3lbs better terms giving the form a solid look. The winner looks a little better than a typical early season two-year-old. Races like the National Stakes at Sandown or maybe even the Coventry at Royal Ascot will probably be on the agenda.

Magnus Maximus caused something of a surprise when grabbing the Tattersalls Millions. Securing first run, he held on as the well-backed Toofi launched the last challenge.

From a stable not fully firing as yet, the runner-up travelled strongly throughout, confirming the impression six is his best trip. Naadirr took the step up in class well after winning a Kempton maiden.

Taking on the colts for the first time and fit from Meydan, Wedding Ring was a never nearer fifth. Scrutiny, a soft ground winner last backend, was noticeably inconvenienced by this drying surface.

After two easy wins in lesser company, Shifting Power passed his first major test in the Free Handicap from a mark of 105. A fine looking colt by Compton Place, he benefitted from a determined ride from Ryan Moore but also left the impression there was something left to work on. No Guineas horse, something like the Jersey could be an ideal target.

Receiving five pounds, Mushir narrowly lost his unbeaten record. Representing Night Of Thunder’s form (therefore indirectly that of Kingman) from a mark of 101, Aeolus was a close third having been denied a clear passage. Saayerr and Parbold were on the heels of these in a proper event.

Sandiva added another notch to her pistol when taking the Nell Gwyn. Already exposed as no more than a decent filly, she emerged best from a rough race to win from a mark of 109, which is pretty much as good as she is. Although likeable, she does not look up to Group 1 standard.

Pound for pound, Saturday’s Fred Darling looked a better event. Euro Charline progressed from winning a Wolverhampton handicap from a mark of 78 to chase her home. Next came Majeyda who was close up.

Considered inferior to her stablemate Ihtimaal, her run puts this race into Classic perspective. Queen Catrine suffered in a barging match late on, as did Dorothy B whose run here can be ignored.

The listed Feilden Stakes has a decent record at throwing up horses to follow for the season. Won last season by French Derby winner Intello, this year it was the turn of True Story.

Last seen in July, a reluctant loader that cruised into contention and then pinged away up the hill, this son of Manduro has done well over the winter. This performance puts him into any Group 1 shake-up as yet.

The runner-up, Obliterator, came here after winning a Curragh maiden in September. He has slight knee-action and was unsuited by the ground. Only determination saw him mount a challenge from the rear meeting the rising ground. Although unlikely to subsequently beat the winner, he will always be better on an easier surface.

Truth Or Dare (pulled hard early) was six lengths away in fourth, ahead of Barley Mow, who has to be filed under D for disappointing.

Munjaz, a winner in the wings after two promising runs at HQ last year, opened his account in a strong maiden to hold Venzia, another with form over this track last year. In third, Connecticut got the hang of things late to finish eye-catchingly strongly. He should know more next time and his able handler can be relied upon to find the right opportunity.

The message for Danzeno – only a winner at lowly Redcar last year – proved accurate in the sprint handicap. He won from a mark of 90. Already gelded but a horse with plenty of substance, he took the measure of Expert inside the last furlong to clear away.

April 12th:

Newbury Results

Despite carrying the second colours, Matalleb maintained the current form of the Gosden yard when overcoming a sluggish start to pick up the better fancied Mutakayyef in the Class 4 maiden. The runner-up was second in a moderate Newmarket maiden last year and is clearly only average. However, he should get off the mark. He looks the part; being by Sea The Stars and judging by the way he was coming back to the winner, he can do better over further.

The filly Brown Diamond, who had posted promise as a juvenile, recovered a good deal of forfeited ground to freewheel into third. This was not a hot maiden but she is entitled to open her account before long.

Not for the first time, Cubanita upset the apple cart in the Group 3 John Porter. When it came to a battle, she was too determined for Noble Mission.

Rawaki put up a personal best in third, with Astonishing putting in a satisfactory reappearance in fourth. There was an encouraging word for Mutashaded. A big son of Raven’s Pass he looks the part but even allowing for his stable’s current form (most representatives are needing it), he ran poorly.

J Wonder returned to the sort of form that saw her go off a well-backed contender for the Lowther back in August when she bombed. There was no mistake this time as she took the Fred Darling in a tight finish with Al Thakira.

Probably this is not 1,000 Guineas winning form, but the first two are entitled to take their chances at Newmarket. Joyeuse was another to recover form in a major way in third and, a well-grown daughter of Oasis Dream, she looks likely to come on considerably for the run.

It was the colts turn in the next – a hot Greenham. Several refused to settle. Berkshire was all over the place; Golden Town was another that was too fresh.

Kingman settled perfectly and stormed into the lead over a furlong out to consolidate his position in the Guineas market. A nice two-year-old last year, he is the finished article as a three-year-old.

The fancied and hitherto unbeaten Night Of Thunder was a decent second, but the winner outclassed him.

Lat Hawill did well on only his second start to take fourth. There are races to be won with him, although the Guineas will surely arrive too soon.

Golden Town was not disgraced, especially considering he took such a hold early. Astaire failed to stay and needs to return to six furlongs. Berkshire wants further; even so, this was a desperate effort and it is a case of returning to the drawing board.

Eagle Top had to be everything they said he was to reel back Automated, who had established a clear lead and was not stopping in the class 4 maiden over 1m 3f.

With only a couple behind him on entrance to the straight, Eagle Top – who has a pedigree to die for – was given a very confident ride, quickening with a furlong to race. He ran out a cosy winner. The opposition was not great, but he could only win and this experience will not be lost. He can go on to better things.
11th April:

Newbury Results

Kasb took one of the significant early season juvenile events of the season and in so doing maintained the current successful spell of the John Gosden camp.

Skittish at the stalls and slow to exit, this well-grown son of Arcano (one of the most attractive in the field) picked up strongly from an uncompromising position at halfway to pull clear. A comparatively late foal, there is more to come, particularly over six.

Charlie’s Star (a distant second to the speedy Tiggy Wiggy at Kempton) came next, her proximity to the winner sounding a cautionary note.

Ballymore Castle (another April foal) was third, looking as if he might improve for this run. The Paco Kid was a shaken-up fourth; but in fifth, Be Bold was quietly doing his best work at the finish and can put the experience to good use in lesser company next time.

The Class 3 conditions stakes attracted a promising field of seven.

Market activity concerned the Derby entrant Western Hymn – an impressive Kempton winner in December – and the penalised recently Derby-supplemented Scotland.

Both were subject to positive reports. Despite this hike in class, Western Hymn was once again able to utilise a devastating turn of foot. Arguably not racing on the best part of the course (jockeys favoured the centre where the grass was apparently shorter), Western Hymn cut down his rivals in strides.

A robust and raw individual who can be made fitter, he has an ideal Derby profile thus far (slight stamina doubt on the distaff side but races as if stamina is not an issue) and can continue to improve.

He deserves utmost respect when taking the leap to Group company and could easily win a recognised Epsom trial (Sandown is the most likely next target).

Snow Sky (a rare half-decent son of Nayef) ran on for second, narrowly nabbing that position from Double Bluff. Failing to quicken, Scotland was back in fourth with no obvious excuse. The 2lbs he had to concede made little difference and on this evidence his Derby entry looks a piece of expensive optimism.

The Class 2 three-year-old handicap over seven furlongs that followed has a habit of throwing up clues for higher honours later in the season.

Course and distance winner Muwaary was again the order of the day for the Gosden yard, bidding for their third winner on the day. Not seen since July last year, despite pulling hard early, he worked his way to the front a furlong out to skittle some potentially well-handicapped rivals, recording a fast time. His mark of 82 obviously underrates him. He is another splendid example of Oasis Dream and will continue to progress.

Not as fortunate as the winner in that he is already rated 92, Zarwaan was an honourable second ahead of another at the top of the weights – Brazos – who ran no race last time at Lingfield but returned to form here.

Showpiece – rated only 84 – picked up ground from the rear to take fourth. Bits of his juvenile form read well. He can win a decent handicap on a flat track over this trip of seven furlongs. York springs to mind.

Extremity failed to perform to expectations in seventh. From the same mark as the winner, Exchequer ran poorly, finishing last. Maybe this run came too soon; more likely is a combination of that and a handsome win against poor opponents last time that flatters.

Not unbacked, Luck Beggar yclaimed the scalps of stalwart and fit Jimmy Styles and Steps (minus headgear today) in the Class 2 handicap.

The angle with Steps was that he had the valuable 3lbs claim of Oisin Murphy that put him in off a winning mark. He may have just needed this, but set to return to his mark of 105 next time, today provided his best opportunity of a return to success.

Dutch Masterpiece trailed in last. He is better than this (drying ground was not ideal) but it is not the first time he has turned in a poor performance.

It was maiden three-year-old events for fillies up to the end of the card. The first of them – restricted to first-timers over seven furlongs – went to the Pivotal filly Evita Peron, who finished nicely on top once the penny dropped.

Not fully tuned, apparently like many Pivotals she needs juice and came here before the ground changes.

Another Pivotal, Ski Lift, can be marked up on her run. Toward the rear early, she made up plenty of ground under tender handling. Several took the eye (Wohja, Zaawia and Enliven to name three) but we are presently in the dark as to the worth of this event.

Second to Western Hymn at Kempton on debut, Be My Gal was all the rage in the first division of the split Class 4 over 1m 2f.

Whereas the winner that day made up oodles of ground to engulf the field, Be My Gal was always on the pace and essentially dismissed when it mattered, making that form potentially misleading.

Her defeat should not distract from the earlier win of Western Hymn. As the race developed it only concerned three. The Gosden filly, the New Approach daughter, Bright Approach, came from last to first to win readily, completing a four-timer for her yard in the process. Her next target is the Cheshire Oaks.

In second, Be My Gal should have her day in ordinary company.

Talmada stepped up on her Kempton debut in third. Marsh Daisy, who is bred to stay further, was the only other to threaten, making steady headway over the last two furlongs to finish fourth. A moderate event over twelve furlongs should see her open her account.

Inchila, who made a promising debut at Goodwood last season only to disappoint next time, stormed through in the second and possibly better division. The places were occupied by three fillies with form: Cascading, holding on for the runner-up spot ahead of Criteria. As last year, Criteria looks as if she can achieve better. Not fully wound up here, she would be interesting in a handicap; although given her connections it is likely she will pursue a more conventional route.

9th April

Nottingham Results

The manner of Sacred Act’s victory (swept past the field with a taking turn of foot) in the first division of the Class 5 maiden suggests this son of Oasis Dream might be useful.

However, there is a need for caution. His defeat of Fast Delivery and Art of War reads well enough, but neither the second or third look as if they will live up to promise earlier shown.

Fast Delivery pulled too hard before making what looked like a winning move approaching the last furlong. His effort soon fizzled. As a son of Authorized racing over a mile, he falls between two stools at present.

It is easy to see why Art Of War has been gelded. After a highly encouraging second to Stealth Missile at Ascot last year, he has failed to progress. Tugging early and racing with his head in the air, he found disappointingly little when asked and on this evidence will struggle to break his duck.

GM Hopkins supplied a ready double for his stable in the second division. A promising debut at Newbury was followed by a poor follow-on at Newmarket as a juvenile but he made no mistake here. Derby entrant, Lacan was prominent throughout, showing some promise in second. Roseburg finished off well enough and might do better in handicaps and over further.

Rated only 69 going into this, Signore Piccolo won like a horse that is well ahead of that rating in the class 4 handicap over five furlongs. Only lightly raced – he looks to have flourished over the winter – there was plenty left in the locker. The handicapper will probably make a 10lbs adjustment, but it may not be enough.

Apparently Signore Piccolo will head to Chester next – where he finished third as a juvenile. Three-time Southwell winner Scarborough found the competition much more demanding than he has been used to, but the placed horses (Piazon and One Boy) were not disgraced.

Last seen when third in the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot, ten months ago, Pearl Secret returned to action with a comfortable success in the conditions race.

A taking son of Compton Place, the aim now is to start where he left off before a minor injury. A lovely stamp of a sprinter, further runs will be restricted to a forgiving surface.

Flying Officer completed a red letter day for The John Gosden team with a win in the Listed. On only his fourth start, this son of Dynaformer stayed on willingly to beat last year’s runner-up Earth Amber.

Having been headed three out, High Jinx ran on to snatch third. Connections will be satisfied with his reappearance effort. Biographer looked unwilling and pottery on the ground in the closing stages. It appears he is out of love with the game at present.

Lincoln third running of the same mark, Robert The Painter, gained compensation with a hard fought success in the Class 3 handicap. Obviously he will be hiked up now, which threatens to make life difficult.

Roserrow’s seasonal debut in second suggests he should win a similar contest before long.

Secret Pursuit was another to make light of a lowly mark in the Class 5 handicap. Last seen in January, she was nudged to a clear success from a mark of 68.

Not many inmates from Sir Michael Stoute’s race from marks of 65. Sahara Desert broke the trend in the Class 5 handicap for three-year-olds but it made little difference. He was well beaten in a moderate event and a new home will presumably be found.
April 5th:

Aintree Results

Top class handicap form rose to the top in the two-and-a-half mile Grade 1 novice hurdle.

County Hurdle winner (form already underlined this week with the run of Diakali) Lac Fontana inched to the front over the last to defeat Betfair Hurdle winner Splash Of Ginge and the Greatwood winner Dell’Arca. All three are tough and consistent. The winner will probably stay further.

Supreme Fifth Wilde Blue Yonder – who because of silly jumping errors has not achieved the heights he should have this season – looked to run out of petrol over the last two flights, finishing ahead of Volnay De Thaix, who lacked the necessary turn of foot and looks as if he will stay three miles.

Saved for this, Baldur Succes, a nimble and athletic chaser, pounced at the second-last to jump into the lead in the Grade1. On this showing he would have gone very close in the Arkle and is a contender for top novice honours.

Simply Ned worried Trifolium out of it over the last. The Arkle third did not jump fluently enough to win at this level, making a couple of indifferent jumps on the far side and again at the cross fence. This is not his track.

With a blistering pace shared by Zarkandar and At Fishers Cross in the Grade 1 over three miles, it was left to Barry Geraghty and Whisper to pick up the pieces.

A much improved performer this season (pays a tribute to Saphir Du Rheu), despite dripping with sweat, Whisper took it up approaching the last and hung on, all out as At Fishers Cross lunged one last time on the run-in.

Possibly the runner-up was slightly unfortunate as he had to run with a loose shoe. Even so, Whisper is an admirable type. He is another from the Henderson squad this is likely to be chasing next season, in which sphere a willing attitude allied to his ability could make him formidable.

The story of the Grand National this year surrounded connections of Pineau De Re – none more so than his likeable trainer and the jockey for whom this has been a crowning year – Leighton Aspell.

On a five-timer, Balthazar King was a gallant second, ahead of Double Seven. Rocky Creek did best of the trio of class horses, vying for the lead approaching the straight but ultimately was beaten by the weight in fifth.

Tidal Bay was brought down; Long Run succumbed to Valentine’s. There was plenty of incident.

This report from Aintree concludes National Hunt coverage for the 2013/14 season. Any further reference to jumping will be in the tips section. From here on, it is Flat all the way. We hope our comments have been of help this winter…

Lingfield Results

After three promising runs last year, Exchequer easily snapped up his maiden over seven furlongs from Twin Point. Currently rated 76, presumably he will be hiked to 82 after this, which does not preclude him from following up in better company.

Another Exceed And Excel, Mutawathea, also trained by Richard Hannon, won the six furlong maiden. A big lug of a thing, he swung wide in the straight but was still good enough to recover and mow down Dark Leopard. This form needs improving upon back on turf, but the winner looked as if he can be made fitter and he should be capable of better.

This time last season, after winning his maiden at Haydock and a handicap at Newmarket, Brass Ring looked all set to scale the heights.

For whatever reason he has been absent since, returning here to snatch a Class 2 handicap from a mark of 90. Getting up in the shadow of the post he has only just won from Viewpoint and Glorious Protector so should not be raised by more than 5lbs at the outside.

He is probably worth more than that as he won up the rail (not always achieved here) looking somewhat stuffy. Entered in a couple of Cup events, he may not be good enough to win at that level but another handicap should not be ruled out. By Rail Link, he will stay further.

The £20,000 Listed International Stakes was marred by a ludicrous start – Sloane Avenue and Zampa Manos bursting from the stalls and having to be withdrawn. Reduced to a field of three, outsider Bow Creek made all.

Barley Mow had every chance. He swung wide in the straight but this should have been his race for the taking. The fact he failed to peg back the leader was disappointing, particularly in the light of Charm Spirit’s run in the Djebel earlier in the week.

American Hope was a little too keen early and failed to finish having staked a claim a furlong out. It had looked as if he would benefit from this step up in trip last time but on this evidence he may have failed to stay.

April 4th:

Aintree Results

Josses Hill gained well-deserved compensation for two reversals in honourable style in Grade 1 company coming into this – the Grade 2.

A thoroughly likeable type that is a real trier and has an ideal constitution, despite finding the track and ground a bit quick, he knuckled down with a massive jump at the last to shake off what looked like a major danger in Sgt Reckless.

Described by connections as their Arkle horse for next year, the sky is the limit. Sgt Reckless, the eye-catcher from the Supreme in that he made up acres of ground in the straight, came there swinging two out and actually headed Josses Hill, apparently going the better. However, he had no answer to the winner’s renewed surge. The pair (who give a boost to Supreme winner Vautour and indirectly The Tullow Tank) finished clear of toiling rivals headed by King Of The Picts and Imperial Cup winner Baltimore Rock.

Handsome is as handsome does. Far from the best-looker in the Mildmay Chase, despite stuttering in to some of his fences on the far side on the last circuit, Holywell came up when it mattered in the straight to slam the door in the face of his pursuers.

Made for a jockey like McCoy, this win eclipses RSA form and he looks a possible Gold Cup horse. The fine-looking Don Cossack, who tipped up at Cheltenham in the RSA, was backed to atone, but, well though he ran, could not get to the winner. Wonderful Charm was a fair third, bettering his Cheltenham run.

O’Faolains Boy – a moody customer – was unable to get to grips with his rivals on this tight circuit and backed off quickly in the straight. Never looking happy, Many Clouds was disappointing. He probably wants a softer surface and a more galloping course. A smart operator when conditions are right, he is not in this league but may do better in handicaps next season.

No one would pretend the Grade 1 Melling Chase deserved that status this year, but something had to win and it was the turn of Ryanair sixth Boston Bob.

A sprint from the last sealed victory at the expense of Rolling Aces and Ballynagour who looked the winner down the straight but did not find what he threatened off the bridle.

It was back to thrills and spills in the Topham Chase. After the win of Holywell, Ma Filleule was popular with many and rewarded them. Always travelling strongly, Barry Geraghty made it look easy, steadying his mount at the obstacles, picking her nose up at the fifth-last – he is as good a rider as there is. Only six, the mare shrugged off her mark of 150 with some ease.

And then there were three. Gradually, as the Grade 1 Sefton over three miles unfolded, the pacemaking Cole Harden, Beat That and Seeyouatmidnight pulled clear.

Beat That is another example of the Henderson juggernaut. On only his third experience over timber, he repaid his trainer’s patience, powering clear on the run to the last and setting the seal on a great day for the stable.

Beat That – a big unit that is a work in progress, but some work – is likely to be chasing next season and has the size and scope to become a star. Cole Harden kept on dourly, whilst Seeyouatmidnight emptied over the last two hurdles. A never-nearer Capote ran on for fourth.

Clondaw Kaempfer won the Grade 3 handicap hurdle. Four had chances at the last in a race that told us little. Pulled up in the County Hurdle, Cheltenian returned to something approaching his best when a close fourth. Had he jumped the last fluently he might have got up.

3rd April:

Aintree Results

With no Tiger Roll in the Grade 1 field, Triumph Hurdle form was upheld by the consistent Guitar Pete who was perfectly delivered to pick up fellow countryman Clarcam. The runner-up crashed out two from home in the Fred Winter when still in with every chance.

The unlucky horse from the Triumph, Calipto, was always prominent here in a race that with its slow early pace probably failed to suit. Having looked the winner turning in he kept on but was unable to quicken from the last.

Commissioned, well beaten by Actival at Kempton, was fourth. Considering he was earmarked for this and missed Cheltenham, Actival – a spent force from three out – ran poorly. However, connections expect to see the best of him next year on easier ground.

The beast that is the Bowl did not exactly bite punters this year but favourite Dynaste could not get to Silviniaco Conti from the second-last. The winner once again ran about from the last.

As last time, Dynaste did not look that athletic over his fences. It could be the muscle that has plagued him continues to niggle away in the background. However slight, there are question marks hovering over these two. Argocat outran his rating in third.

Punters of The New One heaved a sigh of relief after the Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle. Those that took short prices must have feared the worst between the last two as the odds-on shot looked in trouble. As Rock On Ruby and Diakali snapped at his heels from the final flight and forced a three-way photo, it was a relieved Sam Twiston-Davies that steered his way into the winner’s enclosure.

Narrowly thwarted in this contest last year when a novice, The New One does travel better than he finishes – that is to say he appears to have just one incisive run. Perhaps it would be best to give him an ice-cool ride, delivering him at the last moment. Back to hurdles and at a time of year when he flourishes, Rock On Ruby ran as well as ever he has done.

Diakali was given a perfect run through by Tony McCoy. Slow to settle, had Diakali worked in tandem with his jockey in the early stages, he might have won. Perhaps they need to remove the blinkers. He did pull out all the stops at the finish. Only five, and already with Grade 1 form to his credit (when only beaten over three lengths in the Hatton’s Grace by Jezki), he is likely to be back in top company next season.

On quick ground and in race run at breakneck speed, Parsnip Pete broke away halfway down the straight to secure the Red Rum Chase. Turn Over Sivola added another place to his CV in second with unlucky Cheltenham loser, Claret Cloak (would surely have appreciated a softer surface) in third.

The extra half mile of the Grade 1 Manifesto Chase put paid to the Arkle winner Western Warhorse. Doing too much early, as is his wont, he emptied quickly down the straight. A flamboyant character, two miles would seem his trip for now.

Uxizandre gained compensation for his narrow Cheltenham defeat, staving off a somewhat disorganised challenge from Oscar Whisky, who only got his act together when it was too late. The pair was clear.

Third in a Grade 3 at Sandown last time, despite walking through the last flight, Doctor Harper, a fine example of Presenting with plenty of substance, claimed the Grade 3 handicap hurdle. He has stayed three miles well.

Maisons-Laffitte Results

The first of the season’s recognised Classic trails got underway in France. The Prix Djebel was a tight affair, won in the last gasp by French Guineas-bound Charm Spirit, for whom this trip of virtually seven furlongs is a minimum.

Kiram, who has not grown too much doing the winter, was touched off having mounted a final furlong challenge.

With Miss France and Vorda in the field, the second Group 3 – the Impudence for fillies – looked stronger. In a messy contest Xcellence defied her odds to outspeed Vorda in the last half furlong.

Vorda remains a mystery. Although a disappointment at Santa Anita, she did not actually fail for lack of stamina there and so we will still have to see. Always handily placed today, it would be unwise to advance an excuse.

Miss France was always posted wide and pulled hard off a slow pace, making some headway in the last furlong without ever looking likely to get to the leaders. Both have work to do if they are to make an impact at Newmarket.

April 2014

GRAND NATIONAL DAY

SATURDAY APRIL 5th

It might be the Grand National but to the professional gambler it is just another horserace. As such it is treated accordingly.

Professionals dissect races they are interested in, reducing the field to those that in their opinions can win and eliminating those that can’t. Once they have stripped the field bare, they take a look to see if they can narrow it down further until they might be left with a handful of serious runners and hopefully the winner.

To do this the professional assessor has to take an opinion and not to be frightened to be wrong. Remember, the man who is worried about being wrong is very often never right. Fence-sitting is for politicians and civil servants.

So herewith my own version of Saturday’s big race: The Crabbie’s Grand National.

Forty are scheduled to line-up, which may include one or more of the four reserves. With the chances of many of the runners looking remote at best, let’s see if we can turn forty into ten. To do this we have to adopt a ruthless approach, but it can be done and result in a pot of gold. After all, a ten-runner horse race where bookmakers are offering 8/1 the field drastically shifts the odds in favour of the punter.

These are the runners from my viewpoint, and you may be surprised by some of the exclusions.

TIDAL BAY:

Has to buck age and weight trends to win. Carrying top weight of 11st 10lbs and at the age of thirteen, he faces a Herculean task – but since joining the excellent Paul Nicholls he has seemed better than ever.

Gone are the moods, the tantrums and the quirky traits that for so long made him a dubious betting proposition. A colossal effort under top weight in the Welsh Grand National in December was followed up by an honourable second in Ireland in a Grade 1 early in February. Rested since, he cannot be disregarded. The most likely scenario is that he will finish in the first six but that his weight will anchor him. Even so, he will expose weaknesses in many of his rivals.

LONG RUN:

Is the one horse in the line-up that will have us muttering in our beards – and beers – how obvious it was when he wins.

As a dual King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner that is only nine and runs from a lower mark than when he rattled up the first of those Kempton wins in 2011, the handicapper has opened the door for him now.

Representing the all-powerful Nicky Henderson stable, he can be relied upon to have been well prepared for this task. Although his jumping is not always bombproof, he will have been schooled over replica Aintree fences at home and is the sort to rise to the occasion.

His excellent rider emphasised his worth over these fences when winning the Fox Hunter Chase on Thursday and, granted a smidgen of luck and on this drying ground, he could be too classy despite his burden.

ROCKY CREEK:

Completes the trio of classy horses not normally associated with this event. Second in the Hennessy at Newbury in November on only the first of two runs this season, he should line up as a fresh contender that has been prepared with this in mind.

The ground will be ideal and, having never fallen in twelve chases, his jumping has already withstood the test of time. He may have a few pounds too many in the handicap but his class is undeniable and if he is one of three or four at the last, he is the one lesser rivals will have to pass.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE:

Holds more of a technical chance than a realistic one. But efforts here (in the Betfred Bowl and when winning as a novice) and in Ireland in top company suggest at his best he could go well. This is his time of year.

DOUBLE SEVEN:

Something of a dark horse that has progressed through the ranks in Ireland and is catapulted into the big time now. On what he has achieved his mark seems fair and he could easily surpass it. Two doubts remain. He has yet to prove he stays this far – a remark that applies to many – and his jumping can still be a little dicey at times. However, don’t let that put you off too much. This course has a habit of focusing the sloppy but talented horse and as the choice of Tony McCoy he could not be in better hands. Even so he is a bit of a guess.

BURTON PORT:

And talking of guesses, enter this one-time RSA second and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up, whose last win was in the Mildmay Chase here in 2010 when rated 152. Having slipped to a mark of 145, clearly a return to anything approaching that form would make him a blot at the weights.

The problem is, since then he has suffered a leg injury and, at the age of ten, he gives the impression the best is behind him. However a reasonable effort in a veterans’ event last time gives some cause for optimism for his supporters although he will need to find more now. Given his connections that is not impossible and success is not a total pipe dream.

PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE:

Another with a chance on his best form but that seems to be over the horizon and far away these days. However, he does have a dash of class if he can recover it (latest run suggests he is no back number) and would be dangerous if crossing the last alongside a bunch of camels.

LION NA BEARNAI:

Is another that will need to wind the clock back to win. However this former Irish Grand National has already shown he can grind it out when others are crying enough. Weighted to the hilt but ridden by a jockey at the top of his form, if it turns into an old-fashioned National going to the last man standing, one of the more likely ones.

THE PACKAGE:

Creeps in to this with an attractive weight and is another that could test his rivals if it turned into a slog from the last. Fell at the nineteenth here on his previous visit in 2010 and has a patchy record since. Lines up on the back of a decent comeback run at Cheltenham last month. Possibly a place is the best he could obtain, but on his best form does have a chance.

ROSE OF THE MOON:

Risky but credible outsider that could outrun his odds. He completed the course when running in the Becher Chase in December so may be capable of making some sort of impact at these weights.

That is my shortlist, which excludes several currently fancied runners. Why?

Let’s take Teaforthree. He was third off a 3lbs higher mark last year, but has not won in his three runs since – admittedly including a run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when out of his league. However, this year’s race is potentially a much better renewal than last year so he is unlikely to better his position now and could easily struggle to even maintain it.

Monbeg Dude is an old-fashioned staying chaser that peaked in December at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 handicap from an 8lbs lower mark. Life is tougher now and he has plenty to do with Teaforthree on old form. Balthazar King would be a popular winner for Richard Johnson but on his last visit here he burned himself out by tearing off too quickly. Again, his qualities seem confined to staying or cross-country events where the vast majority of his opponents are geriatric or slow.

I have attempted to include outsiders, but essentially I see the race concerning the class acts, who may dominate. Not all will cross the last in a line, but one of them at least is likely to slip the tangled net of misfortune and drama that could foil their bids.

Assuming I have highlighted the right ten runners, this is how bookmakers might price up the race should the other thirty not be taking part:

3/1 LONG RUN
4/1 TIDAL BAY
9/2 ROCKY CREEK
7/1 DOUBLE SEVEN
10/1 BURTON PORT
16/1 QUITO DE LA ROQUE
16/1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
16/1 LION NA BEARNAI
20/1 THE PACKAGE
33/1 ROSE OF THE MOON

These odds are based on a 110% book. Okay, allow a few points on the prices for error and add or subtract at your discretion. But the value plainly appears to lie with the three market leaders: Long Run, Tidal Bay and Rocky Creek. Currently available at 14/1 or even a shade bigger for looking, Long Run is the selection.

Tomorrow is not solely about the Grand National, although, of course, for many it is the only race in town.

AINTREE: 1.30:

A cracking Grade 1 novice event kicks off the card. Over this trip of 2m 4f, Volnay De Thaix looks sure to improve. A tenuous form line through Splash Of Ginge suggests he may have something to find with Dell’ Arca; however, he has been brought along steadily for this event whereas it could be argued Dell’ Arca comes here after a busy campaign.

2.05:

Trifolium gets a chance for consolation for what was a big effort in the Arkle. His class shines through here and only an off day would prevent him beating lesser rivals.

2.50:

Racing gets distinctly harder after this, the last of the Grade 1 events at the meeting. Whilst At Fishers Cross lines up with solid credentials after a shaky start to the season, Whisper is the horse improving through the ranks. He has only a little to find on these rivals and can throw his hat into the ring with a massive performance now.

LINGFIELD

Exchequer should open his account in the 1.15. After three promising runs as a juvenile, including when second to Kingston Hill, this should be an ideal stepping stone on the way to better things.

3.40:

Barley Mow should win this but American Hope shaped well two weeks ago when a staying on second to the highly-regarded Ertijaal. This trip will suit and he has an improving profile and the right pedigree to test the favourite, who may be sharper on another occasion.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY TWO (Friday)

(posted Thursday 4.15pm)

2.00: International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices’ Hurdle:

Although never heralded as being at the top of the novice tree within the powerful Nicky Henderson camp, Josses Hill has quickly scaled the heights after his novice win, competing in Grade 1 company on his remaining two runs and finishing runner-up on each occasion. His second to Vautor in the Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham is the best form on offer here and his habit of finding for pressure makes him the one to beat now.

Sergeant Reckless was only one-and-a-half lengths away in fourth at Cheltenham having made up a great deal of ground from an unpromising position. However, his habit of running in snatches may find him out round here. Art Of Payroll and Baltimore Rock are seen as bigger dangers.

2.30: Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices’ Chase:

Despite a small field, all six in the line-up have claims of sorts. RSA winner O’Faolains Boy takes a long time to warm up. As a hard ride that is invariably on and off the bridle, he may find this quick track far from ideal.

The progressive Holywell and Wonderful Charm (who can probably be forgiven an on the face of it below par run last time when hampered at Cheltenham) look less complicated rivals.

Many Clouds was never in a comfortable rhythm last time at Cheltenham in the RSA and that run is best overlooked. On the strength of his effort at Ascot when a two-and-half length runner-up to O’Faolains Boy conceding 4lbs he enters the reckoning once again.
A bold front runner, he will be suited by this track and a big run is expected. Holywell is taken to complete the four-timer. Although not without chances, Don Cossack and Just A Par look less likely winners than the remaining four.

3.05: Betfred Melling Chase:

Module and Rajdhani Express come here on the back of two excellent efforts at Cheltenham and both will have their supporters.

The question those looking to play here will have to ask is which run was the better: Module’s third to Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother Chase over what looked like an inadequate trip, or Rajdhani Express’s third to Dynaste in the Ryanair?

Both will have to operate at maximum strength to win, but taken as an overall package Module has a more tempting profile and is the selection.

Although as a Grade 1 the composition of the field leaves something to be desired, the opposition makes up more than numbers and is not that far adrift from the standard set by the two principals. Once again, this is not a cut-and-dried event to solve.

3.40: Crabbie’s Topham Chase:

As always, run over the Grand National fences, we are presented with a knotty problem here. Currently bookmakers are betting 10/1 the field, which seems an accurate enough assessment.

Ma Filleule recovered with real spirit to come back from an error last time at Cheltenham when only going down narrowly to Holywell. Raised 7lbs since, she may still be able to propel herself into the firing line once more but this race is fiercely competitive.

4.15: Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle:

This trip of three miles will expose any stamina limitations. For that reason, having looked to find 2m 6f too far at Thurles last time, Giantofaman is bypassed. Beat That shapes as if likely to stay, whereas Capote and Seeyouatmidnight – both of whom have been saved for this meeting – have already won over today’s trip. Others enter the reckoning, making this a hard race to call.

The middle day of this three-day festival always threatened to be the hardest to crack and that is how it looks. Josses Hill and Module are nominated as the best chances on the day from this quarter but are not necessarily advanced as bets.

It is tempting to oppose O’Faolains Boy in the Mildmay. Holywell may provide the biggest danger but Many Clouds should not be dismissed lightly. And that is the metre of the day, which is constructed of races that are hard to solve in one hit. After a near miss with Diakali on Thursday, it looks like it is all to play for on Saturday…
Good luck with your selections.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY ONE (Thursday)

Here we go once again for the rollercoaster that is Aintree. With four Grade 1s on the first day card, backed up by two competitive handicaps and the hunter chase that is the Foxhunters, there is something for everyone…

2.00:

Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle: All eyes will be on Calipto here after a catalogue of disasters in the Triumph Hurdle. Beaten eight lengths at Cheltenham, his misfortune started at the second when he was impeded and was then compounded when a stirrup leather snapped at the top of the hill.

After the race most observers claimed he looked unlucky and would have arguably beaten Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete but for the intervention of bad luck.

Such thinking can be dangerous: time and again the form book has the last word; although, there is a suspicion that Calipto may re-write a part of it now. We shall see… Guitar Pete has run to a similar level all season and looks guaranteed to be in the mix once again.

A little over three lengths behind Calipto at Newbury on his hurdling debut, Actival has been saved for this. After his authoritative win in the Adonis at Kempton he is not far short of the best of his age and could be the biggest danger to Calipto. On the face of it the three mentioned appear to be the runners, although the improving Fox Norton could enter calculations. Whilst respecting Calipto, Actival looks the logical each-way alternative.

2.30: Betfred Bowl:

So often this event can throw up a surprise. Such a scenario looks unlikely this year as Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti stand out – the inference being one or the other must come out on top. Narrow preference is for Dynaste.

To a degree Argocat is the dark horse that is open to improvement. Even so he has plenty to find if he is to figure. The remaining three will need to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. Last year’s winner First Lieutenant is the scavenger waiting to steal the scraps. He invariably runs his race but can only be considered if the front two underperform; whereas neither Menorah nor Houblon Des Obeaux have shown form approaching this level.

3.05: Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

After Calipto in the opener, The New One is the second so-called unlucky Cheltenham loser to line up here. With a trip likely to play to his strengths, after the setback on Boxing Day at Kempton and the broadside he received in the Champion Hurdle, this is his chance.

Fearful of an avalanche of bets in his favour, bookmakers have priced him up as if he is a near certainty. As a result they have overlooked the wild card that is Diakali, who is available at a tempting 12/1 with Coral as I write and 9/1 elsewhere.

Surely these odds are out of kilter with the horse’s chance. The Willie Mullins representative ran a massive race at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle under top weight and his two-and-a-quarter length third to Jezki – over this trip – in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse gives him a strict chance with the favourite, who was almost three lengths behind Jezki at Cheltenham after his much publicised troublesome passage. Those making a case for anything else (including Rock On Ruby) are liable to be barking up the wrong tree. In what is seen as a two-horse contest, even allowing for the fact that any attempt to bet each-way is likely to be thwarted (excludes each-way multiple bets though) Diakali has to be the call at the prices.

3.40: Crabbie’s Fox Hunter’s Chase:

No doubt those acquainted with hunter chaser form can nominate each-way alternatives to the favourite here; but, granted a clear round, the decision to re-route Mossey Joe for this instead of targeting the Grand National is likely to pay its own dividend. He is not perceived as a betting prospect for those of us that don’t don red coats and breeches on bank holidays, but looks a solid favourite.

4.15: Silver Cross Red Rum Handicap Chase:

History shows a shock is more than possible in this. Cutting through the opposition, Sound Investment has a progressive profile and could be the one to concentrate on for those bold enough to play. Claret Cloak blundered away his chance in the Grand Annual at the second-last but has been raised 4lbs for the privilege and faces a similarly stiff task today.

4.50: Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

Temperament and a sketchy past record means Arkle winner Western Warhorse will not be short of detractors here. Stepping up in trip to 2m 4f (might be a problem if he decides to take a tug), those intent on backing him will do well to do so at SP – which will surely outstrip current cramped odds. With two serious contenders in the shadows, many will nominate him as the lay of the day.
Uxizandre performed well at the Festival when second to Taquin Du Seuill in the JLT where Oscar Whisky tipped up at the first. Effective in small fields, Oscar Whisky claimed the scalp of Taquin Du Seuill at Cheltenham in January and it is entirely possible he will regain the winning thread here. Along with Uxizandre his presence means there will be no hiding place for the Arkle winner.

5.25: Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

This represents a precarious end to the day as far as punters are concerned. Principal contenders appear to be the Irish duo Jetson and Busty Brown.

Although hard to fancy, now returned to timber from a favourable mark, Riverside Theatre is the sort to represent Nicky Henderson with credit, whilst Doctor Harper is on the upgrade.

A case can be constructed for the appropriately named Spirit Of Shankly. In all, for those anxious to continue playing, the advice would be to lob a few quid on the last-named at a sporting price. The sensible advice from this befuddled corner would be to leave the race alone.

So from a betting perspective, although ideas may transmogrify once racing gets underway, at this stage I am nominating two value bets in Actival and Diakal.

Take it easy on what might be a trickier day than it looks…

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING 2014

(posted Monday evening 7pm)

This historic meeting kicks off on Thursday – and it is straight into top quality action with the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at 2.00. With Zarkandar, Walkon, Binocular, Katchit and Detroit City among winners in recent years, this is an event often claimed by an obvious contender.

Cheltenham Festival runners have a good record (seven out of the last ten have obliged). Many will be anxious to recover Cheltenham losses with Calipto, who was travelling strongly when his jockey became the victim of a slipping saddle in the Triumph.

He will doubtless be heavily supported to make amends but may have to face Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete for a second time.

Betfred Bowl Chase:

In contrast to the opening event, this is often won by the right horse on the right day. That is to say it can be a consolation prize.

This proved to be the case for the likes of First Lieutenant, Follow The Plan, Nacarat and Exotic Dancer – all of whom had been beaten at the highest level coming into the race. Even so they could be relied upon to produce their best form against higher profile rivals that came here after long seasons.

The Pipe stable has farmed four of the last ten runnings, and will field the favourite in Dynaste – who was a winner at this meeting last year.

Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

For anyone unaware of the name – Doom Bar is a particularly tasty bitter that is brewed in Cornwall. Those yet to acquaint themselves of this brew should redress such an oversight as soon as possible.

As for the race, it is the third of four Grade 1 events on the day. The key factor is the step up in trip for Champion Hurdle contenders that are now faced with 2m 4f.

For that reason it does not always pay to rely on Cheltenham form. Only two favourites have obliged over the last ten years (both of those joint favs) but that’s not to say the race favours outsiders.

Irish runners have a good record – they have won five of the last ten renewals. Assuming Annie Power will wait for Punchestown, many will consider this race to be tailor-made for The New One.

Crabbie’s Fox Hunters’ Chase:

Step forward the hero of the Aintree hour in Crabbies’, the alcoholic ginger beer manufacturer that has injected extra lashings of fizz into the meeting by their sponsorship.

This could be one of the races where spectators may want to avail themselves of their product as it invariably favours bookmakers over punters. Last year it was won by a 100/1 shot; in 2010 by a 50/1 chance. Otherwise three of the last ten runnings have resulted in a winning favourite, so the race can supply predictable results to a degree. It does help to have some knowledge of hunter chasing in general and, possibly more importantly, in a race where jockeyship can be paramount, of the riders involved.

Red Rum Handicap Chase:

One way or another, stand by for an unexpected result here. This handicap has thrown up three big price winners in the last ten years (two 20/1 chances and a 25/1 shot) as well as four winning favourites (including co-favs). It is invariably not an easy race to solve.

Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

With only five year’s results to go by, it is a little premature to pinpoint any real trends but so far this, the fourth of the Grade 1s on the day, has gone pretty much according to the script.

Captain Conan won it last year. Trainers Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have won two races apiece. Tartak, in the inaugural running in 2009, was the biggest priced-winner to date for his trainer Tom George.

Plenty will be prepared to oppose Arkle winner Western Warhorse here. Oscar Whisky should be more suited to this track than Cheltenham, but the Irish challenge is potentially a strong one.

Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

A tough three mile hurdle closes the day. This is one of the harder races to get right. Six of the last ten winners have returned at double-figure prices. To balance this out, the other four went to favourites. Unless you unearth a potential blot in the handicap – you know the risk you run when betting in events such as this.

Day Two:

The day starts with a Grade 2 novice hurdle over two miles sponsored by the International Festival for Business. Nicky Henderson has won the last two runnings, with My Tent Or Yours last year and Darlan before that.

With General Miller having supplied a win for Seven Barrows in 2010, Henderson, a top man at this track, will hope to be represented by Josses Hill this time. The opposition is potentially strong. If turning up, Arctic Fire and possibly Cheltenham flop Irving would count as two serious dangers.

It is back to a Grade 1 with the Betfred Mildmay Novices’ Chase. Five of the last ten favourites have obliged for punters, including Dynaste last year. He was preceded by Silvianco Conti in 2012. There have been no real shocks in this over the past ten years. Six of the last ten winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival. A small field seems likely this year.

The Grade 1 Betfred Melling Chase

appears on statistics to be one of the more punter-friendly races with five of the last ten events going to the favourite.

However, with a roll-call that includes top two-milers like Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded and Moscow Flyer, that figure could be misleading. There is nothing of that calibre in this year’s line-up, a race that could well suit Queen Mother third Module over this extended trip.

Topham Chase:

Fifty percent of the last ten winners have been double-figure big prices, which is hardly surprising considering they often bet 10/1 the field.

This is also something of an oddity of a race, being as it is run over the in-between trip of 2m 6f and over the Grand National fences. This can be one of the hardest races at the meeting to call, although that does not prevent punters from piling in.

Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Chase:

At Fishers Cross last year and Black Jack Ketchum in 2006 were the only winning favourites in ten years. There have been four big price winners of this Grade 1 over three miles – often run on quick conditions.

Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle:

Punters are often in need of medication after this has been run. There have been no winning favourites in the last ten years. Sunnyhill Boy at 8/1 was the lowest-priced winner in 2009. 2013 Grand National winner, Aurora’s Encore prevailed in 2008 at odds of 50/1. A race to be wary of.

Concerto Group Mares’ Standard NH Flat Race:

A Flat race for mares – what joy to bring down the curtain on the second day’s proceedings! Turbo Linn in 2007 is the only winning favourite to date. Bring on the Doom Bar!

Grand National Saturday:

Pertemps Network Novices’ Hurdle: Elevated this year to a Grade 1, again the trip of 2m 4f could be partly responsible for some big-priced past winners. Ubak surprised at 22/1 last year. Bouggler won at 16/1 in 2009 and Turpin Green was also something of a shock when winning in 2005 at odds of 14/1. Otherwise there have been three winning favourites and fancied winners in the shape of Simonsig in 2012, Spirit Son in 2011, Elusive Dream in 2008 and Tidal Bay in 2007. The overall impression is that this is a solvable contest if the field is right.

Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase:

Another Grade 1, this time over two miles. Several likely candidates are doubly engaged throughout the meeting, so at this stage it is a question of seeing who turns up.

A small field is likely. There have been five winning favourites in the last ten years – last year’s winner Special Tiara being the only blot in a race that otherwise favours punters.

Silver Cross Stayer’s Hurdle Grade 1:

At 11/2 in 2005, Monet’s Garden was the biggest-priced winner. Four-time winner Big Buck’s and dual-winner Mighty Man give this a wobbly shape as far as betting figures are concerned. More Of That would be popular if turning up; in his absence, At Fishers Cross (same ownership) would probably line up as favourite.

Having improved with every run this year, Whisper would be the dark horse.

And a word of possible interest here. Whisper’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, has an enviable record at this meeting. For that reason it pays to scrutinise his representatives carefully over the week. Bear in mind he is often successful with those runners that are not obvious and at first glance appear to hold only average chances. He often does well in the handicaps.

Betfred TV Handicap Chase:

Only the racing authorities could plan or sanction this!

Here we have a handicap chase over the Mildmay fences run as a curtain-raiser for the Grand National, fifty minutes in advance of the big race of the meeting. Don’t be surprised if there is a shortage of jockeys wishing to take part in this, or a shortage for their scheduled mounts in the Grand National after it. And be prepared for a turn up!

Crabbie’s Grand National:

To a degree luck plays a big part, although the right horse often makes its own luck in this. The poser set for punters is to nominate the right horse for the occasion.

Often first-timers to the track have the edge, so class acts like Rocky Creek and Long Run could be of interest this year.

Aged thirteen and carrying 11st 10lbs, Tidal Bay will have to buck sensible statistics to win.

The favourite, Tea For Three had his chance last year when third and faces stiffer competition this time round.

With a couple of better handicapped contenders (Godsmejudge and Same Difference) now absentees, but worth bearing in mind for events like the Bet 365 Chase at Sandown or the Ayr National, it could be a case of the cream rising to the top in the form of either of the two mentioned.

Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders):

Cockney Sparrow was a winning favourite last year, Lifestyle the 28/1 winner in 2013. The kind of event that could throw up anything! If you are not already in a queue to collect winnings from the Grand National, it could be you shouldn’t be in one to place a bet in this.

Weatherbys Private Banking Champion NH Flat Race:

With winners at 33/1, 50/1, 28/1and 20/1, the past results speak for themselves.

This is not a race for punters tempted to punch their way out of trouble. That said, if there is any cash left, Modus is better than his running at Cheltenham might suggest and is likely to take more of a hand at the finish now if turning up. He does have the four-year-old hoodoo to defy.

These are some preliminary thoughts and ideas for the coming week. We hope you find them useful and that they may help focus you in the right direction.

We shall be posting Free Tips for each day. They should be online by most evenings, commencing on Wednesday.

Good luck…