Based on races viewed, Spy’s analysis and list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

SATURDAY DECEMBER 27TH:

Kempton: 12.40: With a 10lbs weight turnaround in his favour for three-quarters of a length, it seems reasonable to expect Storm Force Ten to reverse Sandown form with Bivouac here. Apparently he has flourished since his debut over timber and, a decent performer on the Flat, is expected to open his account now. Bivouac cannot be dismissed out of hand, neither can French import San Benedeto, but after what was an encouraging start, Storm Force Ten gets his chance to leapfrog a few places in Triumph Hurdle market.

Chepstow: 1.55: As a Grade 1 trial, this promises to provide plenty of Cheltenham clues. Golden Doyen will find this a tougher assignment than his Cheltenham victory last time when inching out Hargam. Old Guard beat two highly fancied rivals on debut and improvement will make him a serious candidate. Assuming the Sandown form is not let down in the opener at Kempton, Baron Alco was probably attempting a mammoth task when trying to conceded 10lbs to Bivouac and Storm Force Ten last time. Not disgraced in defeat and a winner on this type of ground, he is nominated as a value alternative to some more obvious contenders.

SATURDAY DECEMBER 27TH
BOXING DAY FRIDAY DECEMBER 26TH:

Kempton: 12.50: Although not foot perfect at Cork when comfortably accounting for his rivals on debut, with decent form on the Flat in France (including when third in listed company) Sempre Medici appeals as having greater scope than recent Newbury winner Jollyallan. With a clear round the Irish representative can strike an early blow for the Walsh/Mullins combination, although the booking of Barry Geraghty for newcomer and ex-Godolphin Zip Top (presumably in preference to the Henderson-trained Bringithomeminty) sounds a note of caution.

1.25: In what looks like a tricky handicap, Quite By Chance might be worth chancing. His three runs this season all hint at progression. A second to subsequent Ascot winner Dance Floor King at Wincanton over two miles before shrugging off a 2lbs higher mark over today’s trip suggests connections may have something up their sleeves from today’s revised rating.

2.00: Style threatens to give way to substance here. In the face of a strong challenge from several with a similar if not a better profile, short-price favourite Saphir Du Rheu (who surely has a future over fences whatever transpires in this) will not have everything his own way in this Grade 1. His stable-mate, the hat-trick-seeking Virak, along with Carriag Mor – who looked a natural over fences at Newbury last time – appeal as the two most likely to test him to the limit, but the inclusion of back-from-the-dead Coneygree and to a lesser extent Sausolito Sunrise mean this is a race that will take plenty of winning.

2.35: All eyes will focus on Faugheen here. Odds-on, he should maintain an unbeaten record. Even so those looking for an alibi to get him beaten might point to his record, which leans towards him being more effective over two miles plus than two miles dead – particularly over a sharp track like Kempton. Only Irving and Sign Of A Victory can be nominated as potential dangers, and on all known form they do have something to find. Impressive as Sign Of A Victory was at Ascot last time when beating Dawalan, the runner-up is better over further. However, Sign Of A Victory missed the Ladbroke last week for this and should not be underestimated.

3.10: This showcase event would be greatly simplified if we could label Champagne Fever as a true contender that is worthy of his current place in the betting at this level. The trouble is, in all honesty we can’t: he still has to prove he is good enough to mix it with the quality of opponent he faces here. Five starts over fences down the line, smart and up-and-coming chaser that he is, this will be his first attempt at a Grade 1 outside novice company. He is also unproven over this trip. As he holds the rest of the field on various previous runs, Silviniaco Conti looks solid. As doubts (however minor) exist over the second-favourite, some might say last year’s winner is bombproof. This reasoning is largely sound. As Champagne Fever is the only wild card in the line-up, Silviniaco Conti really ought to win. With stamina doubts persisting over Al Ferof, an in-form Menorah and Dynaste look most likely to pick up any pieces but there is no logical reason why either should beat an on-song Silviniaco Conti. Even so I am reluctant to commit to a horse that has flopped before. Whilst fully appreciating many will disagree, sometimes you have to accept certain horses will always outfox you. Such is Silviniaco Conti as far as I am concerned. Never having backed him when he has won, but the recipient of his bad days, I feel inclined to look away from the mouth of what many will probably rightfully describe as a gift horse.

3.45: The Pipe yard could easily do a Batavir (runs from a penalty at Wincanton but faces much stiffer opposition this time than when winning at Ascot last week) with Alternatif, who should be effective at this trip. Hawaii Five Nil is another likely to improve for this extra yardage and should not be readily discarded despite the apparent lack-lustre form currently shown by his stable.

ASCOT SATURDAY DECEMBER 20TH:

1.15: Receiving 3lbs from Irish Saint it is entirely possible that Puffin Billy, who reserves his best for this track, may be good enough to thwart those looking to take cramped odds about the likely favourite.

2.25: Described as being in great heart since winning a Grade 1 at Auteuil in November, Zarkandar, who cannot always be relied upon when the cash is down, is a warm favourite for the Long Walk. It is a race within his grasp but there are better 5/4 chances to be found. Medinas looked to have won a tactical contest last time, Reve De Sivola will need to wind the clock back to score but Aubusson is not far off the required standard and this improving five-year-old could be the one connections of Zarkandar should fear most.

3.00: On a day lacking any definitive bets, The Young Master is only a tentative selection in this listed handicap. Raised 14lbs for a race that was taken from him due to his trainer’s carelessness, he lines up under inauspicious circumstances but does appear to jump proficiently and still receives lumps of weight from the three above him in the handicap, all of whom will need to raise their game in a similar manner.

3.30: He may be at the wrong end of the handicap to be a blot, but the classy Bayan is certainly one of the more interesting contenders in The Ladbroke. With the speed to win over two miles but a close third in the Coral Cup over three to Whisper at Cheltenham in March, the versatile five-year-old seems impervious to ground and should be in the mix. Shelford looks well-treated but his two hurdle wins have come at further and this trip combined with inexperience may find him out. Actival reappears after flirting with Triumph Hurdle candidates last season but again, as only a four-year-old with limited experience, he has a bit to prove at this level. At the foot of the weights Clondaw Warrior’s third in the Greatwood may stand him in good stead now and he is feared most in a race that may be dominated by the Irish.

FRIDAY DECEMBER 19TH:

Small but select fields line up at Ascot with the possibility of one betting opportunity.
After a satisfactory debut over hurdles at Cheltenham, a drop in grade ought to allow Champagne Present to get off the mark in the 12.50, although at likely odds he fails to appeal as a betting proposition.
Although only four turn out for the Grade 2 hurdle at 1.55 it looks like a case of perming any one from three. L’Ami Serge, Emerging Talent and Killultagh Vic (the pick of nine five-day entries for the Mullins stable) represent classy recruits and more should be heard of them in the coming months.
In the Grade 2 novice chase Dunraven Storm has the established form over fences but faces a stiff task in conceding weight to last year’s Ladbroke runner-up Ptit Zig, who has won twice over the bigger obstacles but faces a stiffer test now – and more especially Josses Hill, who did nothing but improve over hurdles last season. If capable of transferring his form over timber to this sphere, Josses Hill, already considered a possible candidate for the Arkle, has the class to stamp his authority on this field. Considering the stable he represents, he is sure to have been well schooled.
A winner over 2m 4f over hurdles in France, Batavir should not be judged too harshly after failing to cope with Rock On Rocky over two miles on his British debut at Leicester last month. Likely to be sharper for the experience, this step up in trip looks guaranteed to suit and he is taken to open his account from what could be a lenient mark of 119 in the Class 3 handicap hurdle.

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 17TH:

Newbury stage their pre-Christmas meeting tomorrow, which makes something of welcome change from the usual offerings we are subjected to mid-week; the problem from a betting point of view though is that in order to solve any of the races a great deal of guesswork is required.
Hard on the heels of the bacon and eggs at 12.10 the juvenile hurdle is a case in point. Trendsetter and Blue Atlantic set a modest standard. Blue Atlantic’s failure to defy a penalty at Market Rasen suggests he may be equally pressed here. On balance Trendsetter’s third at Wetherby looks to represent better form but is only ordinary. Zarib and Jalingo look likely recruits from the Flat whilst ex-French import Winner Massagot looks to have an ideal hurdling profile.

12.40: On these terms Astigos (a long-standing maiden that is hanging on to that status for grim death) has a length in hand of Minella On Line after their close third and fourth to Big Hands Harry in a messy Ascot event last month. It is early days to pronounce judgement on the Ascot race (either the winner – who all but threw the race away but still prevailed – is destined for much better, or it was a case of him emerging best of a modest bunch). On hurdling evidence Minella On Line has a touch of the slows and makes as much appeal as Astigos. Chase The Spud is the one in this field that could have something to offer. A six length winner of his only chase at Exeter, a rise of eight pounds gives him every chance if he can reproduce that promise.

1.10: This looks a weak affair. Communicator may get away with it but he is hardly convincing. Ffos Las bumper winner Beast Of Burden, who landed a gamble in the process, could be a cut above these.

2.45: After two knotty chases, the wild card is back in action in the novice hurdle. Winner of two bumpers and a Ludlow hurdle, Jack Frost has the benefit of his regular rider’s 3lbs claim to help but still has to concede weight all round, which for a four-year-old looks taxing. Winner of an Irish point Monbeg Gold could be interesting. Having finished third in a Grade 1 N/H Flat race at Punchestown in April when last seen, Value At Risk lines up with a more conventional profile and clearly has ability. If he takes to hurdles he could be too classy.
Right now we are throwing the cards up in the air and seeing which way they land. Currently weighed down by imponderables, it seems they are landing in a haphazard fashion after each throw. But it is not all doom and gloom. A few clues here and there could totally transform the rise and fall by tomorrow and possibly pave the way for a small wager…

SATURDAY DECEMBER 13TH:

Cheltenham: 12.15: Having created a favourable impression on his debut over hurdles in a similar JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, French import and smart ex-French Flat performer Hargam gets his chance to stamp his claim at top juvenile hurdle level here. A strict line through Golden Doyen does give him a few pounds to find with Karezak, but the signs are this sounder surface will play to Hargam’s strengths and that normal improvement from his debut should be enough. Previous winners Stars Over The Sea and Mr Gallivanter have impressed in lesser company but face stiffer tasks with penalties. This appears to present Hargam with the ideal opportunity. Karezak looks his biggest danger.

12.50: Faced with likelihood that his main threat Virak will be diverted to Doncaster (weather permitting), the way to victory has been smoothed for Champagne West who impressed here last month on his chasing debut and who should follow up now.

1.25: For a four-year-old having only his third outing over fences but his second in a handicap, Solar Impulse jumped like a seasoned veteran at Newbury when narrowly beaten by Monetaire on Hennessy day. Despite a 5lbs rise, he is improving quickly and looks capable of beating opponents that by and large have no secrets.

2.00: Although only raised 5lb for his Paddy Power success, a lofty weight perch threatens to make this a much harder task for Caid Du Berlais. Nominating dangers should be easy but in fact from a weight perspective only Barrakilla (who is entitled to improve for his latest run at Sandown – his first for ten months), Attaglance and Workbench appeal as alternatives.

2.35: This promises to be a closely fought contest between Blaklion, Binge Drinker and Parish Business with preference accorded to the first two mentioned in that order. However, with Port Melon a contender after finishing only just behind Blaklion last time, without the benefit of an edge this is a race to watch.

3.10: It is impossible to look beyond The New One and Vaniteux in the Grade 2 hurdle designed to provide a clue to the Champion in March. A smart novice last year and narrowly beaten under top weight in the Greatwood, in receipt of 8lbs Vaniteux represents a serious threat to The New One. Described by Nicky Henderson as his only possible contender for Cheltenham’s hurdling crown, Vaniteux will not have many better opportunities to stake his claim. Although impressive at Haydock last month, The New One will need to produce more against a stiffer opponent this time.

3.45: Back to hurdles we have to assume Rock On Ruby will win this … but, is he a horse one should risk cash on? The oldest in the field, he faces rivals that may not be as good as he is, or that will ever aspire to his record, but younger legs often work harder and longer.

FRIDAY DECEMBER 12TH:

As Christmas speeds ever closer, and to an extent with every penny accounted for, there is no room for sentimentality or sloppiness when it comes to risking capital on gambling right now. Of course such an ethos should be advocated all year round, but when all betting guns are ablaze, there are occasions when cases can be made for throw-away bets. Right now, with the staging of some dire mid-week cards that offer little opportunity of restoring any mistakes or setbacks, this is not one of them. The margin for error is set at a low level and only serious betting propositions should be considered during this period.

Tipping winners is not enough right now: the question is – are the tips bets? On the approach to Kempton on Boxing Day, we have two days this week to sort something out and put ammunition in the betting armoury…

CHELTENHAM: 12.30: Kings Palace ought to confirm placings with Sausalito Sunrise on 8lbs worse terms but a better round of jumping from his rival could press the issue. In this four-horse contest Return Spring enters the equation, whilst chasing newcomer Vivaldi Collonges cannot be ruled out. So class act or not, on only his second attempt over fences, at shades of odds-on Kings Palace looks like one to cheer politely from the stands.

1.05: This handicap for conditional riders makes no betting appeal. With the aid of a capable claimer, Hollow Blue Sky should improve on his last run here for this step back up in trip but needs to in order to justify support.

1.40: Representing powerful yards it is always possible Lough Kent and Street Entertainer may be about to strike at this sort of level, but Vintage Vinnie and Gohar line up as possible contenders that could just be underestimated. Guessing the outcome between these four could be a thankless task.

2.10: Having defied the handicapper twice this season after comfortable wins at Warwick at Leicester, running on a penalty means that despite being 4lbs out of the weights, The Ould Lad could easily rack up the hat-trick in this slog over an extended three miles. He looks the logical selection in what is not a particularly strong event; however, his chance would be compromised if the ground eased dramatically. This is a race chock-full of imponderables. Hadrians Approach and Lamb Or Cod make limited appeal, although victory from either would not exactly shock. As it stands, Samstown, Charingworth or Cowards Close look more likely winners.

3.15: Even on revised terms with Invicta Lake, Big Easy will be popular to confirm their running over this course in November, particularly over this slightly shorter trip. That said, this will be Big Easy’s fourth run in what has to be considered quick succession by his standards, which should be a worry to his supporters. A sharper round of hurdling would present Invicta Lake with a clear chance now, whilst Guiding George and Ulzana’s Raid have to be included in calculations.

3.45: Perhaps the best opportunity on the day lurks in the concluding novice hurdle. Lightly-raced but looking likely to repay at least part of an expensive price tag on debut when second to the more than useful Shantou Bob with subsequent Ascot winner Fletchers Flyer a close third, Padge looks primed to open his account now. By Cheltenham standards this is not a strong novice and it will be a disappointment to all concerned should Padge not win or go close. By and large his opponents appear beatable and the selection and suggested sole bet on the card has the look of a price-mover come tomorrow.

SATURDAY DECEMBER 6TH:

Aintree: 2.05: Having given the impression he was struggling, Dawalan stayed on strongly last time to finish a close fourth at Haydock to the progressive On Tour in similar conditions to today. Sneaked up a further pound by the handicapper, this extended trip looks to be his forte and he is taken to strike after three runs this season – every one of which reads well and suggests he is a winner waiting to happen.

3.15: Although no easy race, everything is right for Hunt Ball who ran better than indicated by his placing at Ascot over hurdles last time. This is a realistic target and he should at least acquit himself well despite a steadying weight.

Sandown: 1.20: Cup Final has the look of a well handicapped hurdler and the rise of a 1lb after what was an encouraging handicap debut at Cheltenham last month means he races from a reasonable mark of 127 now. This trip should suit him well.

Nicky Henderson has his team in excellent shape and it is entirely possible he will walk away with major prize-money today. With two big chances at Aintree and further opportunities on this card, Sweet Deal in the 2.25 and Oscar Whisky in the featured Tingle Creek cannot be ignored. Reported to be in terrific shape after what was almost a weight-busting attempt in the Paddy Power, Oscar Whisky faces slightly sub-standard opponents for a race of this stature and looks sure to make his presence felt. The only worry is this trip of two miles, which might be on the sharp side and find him out. There is little between the younger duo that is God’s Own and Balder Succes based on their two recent meetings. They could have the edge but Oscar Whisky cannot be safely ruled out. Dodging Bullets looks too soft to be a confident call at this level and surely Somersby’s days in Grade 1s are over.

Based on races viewed, Spy’s analysis and list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 29TH:

NEWBURY: 3.00: The Hennessy Gold Cup poses several of the usual questions. After a promising start to his chasing career last season, Djakadam looks a class act here. His present mark along with his place in the handicap makes him an appealing prospect in a race where nothing stands out from a handicapping prospective. However, he faces his stiffest test and recent market support means any value has been hoovered up. Second in this last year and now 5lbs higher, with a tongue tie applied for the first time, we should expect a bold show from Rocky Creek who it can be argued returns to action as a better horse now than he was this time last year. Ballynagour would have a serious chance if he stays the trip, which, on ground such as this has to be open to question. Many Clouds is another to enter the reckoning. However, the message for Smad Place is encouraging and a big run seems to be expected. In a race that is hard to call the RSA runner-up has to be the selection.

NEWBURY WINTER FESTIVAL Day-One

Persistent rain has changed the ground at Newbury to a mixture of soft and heavy. Whatever the official description, it will be extremely testing. As a result the fields for Thursday are small and they feature several odds-on chances. The weather is dank and dreary; it is cold and rheumatic; the opening day is for enthusiasts only.

The feature event is the bet365 Intermediate Hurdle – registered and known to aficionados as The Gerry Feilden Hurdle – run at 3.15. Willie Mullins is down to fielding two from an original entry of three. Progressive at the end of last season when winning his last two hurdles in Ireland, Daneking looks a better prospect at present than stable mate Wicklow Brave. Despite a serious hike in the ratings (up 13lbs) after his win at Fairyhouse in April that win nevertheless cemented his profile as a hurdler soaring through the ranks. A winner on heavy he looks a serious contender here, although the weight concession to the French import L’ami Serge (another with solid form on the heavy) could be cause for concern. Nicky Henderson has taken his runners out en masse on this opening day so it looks significant that L’ami Serge stands his ground. To complete a part-line-up of the unknowns, another French import, Le Mercurey, represents Paul Nicholls but has to defy a stiff mark.

Unless someone from the Mullins’ camp is spotted backing L’ami Serge, Daneking is taken to continue his rise with a prestigious win.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 15TH:

CHELTENHAM: There are no easy answers today and this race is no exception. Present View has been the persistent tip locally, but the value has gone now and he may struggle to contain a horse with a similar profile, Buywise – another for whom there is a word. For those looking for something at a price, Persian Snow has a chance of reversing last month’s form with John’s Spirit and with his stable in such sparkling current form, he may belie his odds.

LINGFIELD 2.00: The listed event looks suitably competitive but presents in-form Intransigent with a solid opportunity. Medicean Man looks sure to play a part at this level and in Dubai this season, but may come up slightly short for this his first run since June. Intransigent’s most interesting opponent could be Golden Steps, who hovers on a decent mark after catching the eye at Ascot two runs ago. His latest effort over an inadequate five furlongs can be disregarded and whatever his fate here, the decision to campaign him over the all-weather this season looks sure to pay dividends.

2.35: Although the opposition looks strong, if coping with Snowmane and Fire Fighting, Educate looks primed to return to winning action here. Polytrack should be no barrier but the three-year-olds – Snowmane in particular – look progressive so, although Educate should be thereabouts, confidence is at a minimum.

CHELTENHAM FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14TH:

It’s Day One of the three-day meeting that sees the return of one of the big two Cheltenham pre-Christmas fixtures. Chances are we shall have some new names to conjure with by the conclusion of the coming days. One of these could easily be Champagne Present, whose participation in the 3.00, aided by the presence of Ruby Walsh – deputising for Tony McCoy – looks one of the most interesting new kids on the block. Narrowly beaten at Aintree in October when arguably unfortunate not to have won, that was a highly promising start over timber and this son of Presenting will only need to show normal improvement to score now.

Thirty-five minutes earlier a small and select field lines up for the Class 2 chase over an extended two-and-half miles. Champagne West and Dell’ Arca are interesting recruits, whilst Urban Hymn’s debut over the bigger obstacles suggests he can make his mark over this sphere. Colour Squadron, who is chasing his tail over fences and yet to score after numerous near-misses, may once again have to play second fiddle in the face of what looks like a strong challenge from some up-and-coming chasers.

4.05: Considering his reputation from last year, it will come as no surprise if Cup Final were to win this from a mark of 125. However, so far his claim to fame has been largely talk and although he is respected (particularly over this trip) likely favourite Cassells Rock is seen as a safer proposition. The race is tight and does not stop there, with Buster Dan Dan and Morito Du Berlais others worthy of consideration. However, in the belief he may start this season as a well-handicapped horse (has a big weight turn round with River Deep for example on their running at Newton Abbot last May) a chance is taken with Cloudy Beach.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7th:

Doncaster: 1.50: The inclusion of potential group performer Voice Of A Leader requires backers to take a second look here. So late in the season it is improbable he is being teed up for a target elsewhere. Notwithstanding the fact we have not seen him since he finished third to Be Ready and Barley Mow in a listed event over this course at the St Leger meeting last year, his able trainer has a record of preparing his charges fit and ready to run, therefore he is unlikely to be making up the numbers. Although hard to be dogmatic, Voice Of A Leader has the potential to make an impact in this company from a mark of 97, making any surfacing market confidence highly significant.

2.25: Jack Dexter has an opportunity here to make the 3lbs he receives from Tropics count. On ideal ground he bids to supplement his success in this last year when beating a strong field that included the improved Spinatrix whom he now meets on more favourable terms. From what looks like an ideal draw he has plenty in his favour. Tropics is entitled to go close but should struggle to concede weight to the selection based on Ascot running from last time. Spinatrix has to be a contender but needs a personal best, as does Dungannon who is arguably more effective at the minimum trip. After a highly promising return to action at Newmarket in September, Aetna was a disappointment behind Spinatrix last time. Despite being in her element on this surface that makes her hard to fancy in this elevated company now.

3.00: Conditions will suit Melrose Abbey, for whom the ground cannot be too soft. Never seen with a chance behind Silk Sari in the Park Hill, she may have needed the outing – her first for nearly three months. Earlier runs at Newmarket and Salisbury puts her in here with a solid chance and she looks the each-way alternative to likely favourite Princess Loulou – who, despite good efforts in defeat this season, has yet to get her head in front since scoring in two soft events last autumn.

3.35: Class act Mount Logan has the look of a late season improver but the prospect of ground riding on the soft side is a worry for a son of New Approach. There are no such worries for Manhattan Swing who, after a lucrative campaign over hurdles, looks well-handicapped reverting to the Flat. On his last appearance on the level in May he was an excellent second to Edge Of Sanity at Leopardstown from only a three pounds lower mark – a run that puts him in with a definite chance here. He lines up fit after finishing third last month at Chepstow in a listed event over timber and despite a wide draw looks overpriced. Dangers abound – many of them appearing to be on the upgrade. But at this eleventh hour of the season the handicapper has taken no chances, so they will need to raise their games even further to defy weight rises.

The jumping cards look inconclusive, although there may be an angle to be found in the Elite Hurdle at 3.15 at Wincanton. Rock On Ruby faces a stiff task conceding weight to several promising types, as does Purple Bay – who should not beat Hint Of Mint for one. Irving reappears after his Cheltenham Festival disappointment and given the conditions of the event will need to recover his best form in this company. He may have more to offer as the season unfolds. Hint Of Mint and Forgotten Voice enter calculations after recent pipe openers behind The New One at Kempton and both have the capability to become dangers to all. However, an in-form and progressive Bertimont – whose defeat of Dawalan at Chepstow was underlined at Ascot last Saturday – may be capable of taking this leap in class.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 1ST:

Newmarket: 12.50: Having run credibly against Commemorative on debut, then fourth to Mohatem over this course, but for a narrow defeat at Goodwood next time Secateur would be a confident call in this nursery. The problem is that Shadow Rock – who beat him a neck at Goodwood and re-opposes on only a pound worse terms – looks equally well-treated. With Secateur and Shadow Rock (showed a good attitude last time whereas Secateur did zigzag his chance away) racing from marks of 77 and 78 respectively, one or the other should prevail. A 10lbs hike threatens to edge out Dark Wave.

1.25: Lady Of Dubai looked like a filly heading in the right direction when skating away with her maiden over course and distance in September. This followed promise in her earlier attempts and any further improvement would make her very hard to beat now. If recovering form Bitter Lake would be the main danger. However she represents another conundrum from Godolphin. She did look useful on debut on the July course but has been absent since being burned off in the Albany, making her hard to fancy on her reappearance. At this time of year, current form is all-important. Toujours L’Amour looked a fortunate winner on debut (runner-up had the race won but jockey eased down), whilst the wins of Sagaciously and Irish Rookie need improving upon in this company. Lady Of Dubai looks solid.

2.35: Allowing for WFA, Mutakayyef has 1lb and half a length in hand of Air Pilot after their running in the Darley Stakes last time. It is tempting to think it may be enough to allow him to confirm that form, although we are talking about a narrow margin. That said it was Mutakayyef’s first run since the middle of June so improvement is likely.

3.10: After winning the Cambridgeshire and a similar handicap at Ascot where he enjoyed an unplanned for draw advantage a rating of 111 looks likely to flatter Bronze Angel, who now faces much hotter opposition. In any event he is at his best in big fields so looks one to swerve here. Linton and Emell constitute dangers beyond the obvious that could easily have a say in the outcome.

Wetherby: The Grade 2 Charlie Hall looks a decent renewal, which could go to new kid in town Taquin Du Seuil who, after a pipe opener at Newton Abbott three weeks ago that failed to go to plan against a couple of speedier types, should be more at home in this field that places a greater emphasis on stamina. In receipt of 10lbs from Silviniaco Conti, Taquin Du Seuil can make it count and looks the sort to make his presence felt in this company as the season progresses.

Breeders’ Cup: Santa Anita: 21.05: A blisteringly quick juvenile, there is every reason to assume No Nay Never has lost none of his edge judged on his latest success at Keenland.

22.22: It’s about time Flintshire got himself back on the score sheet and on his preferred ground, the Breeders’ Cup Turf could present the ideal opportunity. The trouble is he is winless since last July and horses with this kind of profile often find it hard to recover the winning thread. On his best form (including his latest second in the Arc) he is the form pick. Really fast ground may be against Telescope, whilst a revitalised Main Sequence is another that carries baggage. Even so a trio of Grade 1 successes in the USA signifies he is now on track. Value looks to lurk in the shape of Arlington Million winner Hardest Core, whose form from that with Magician and Side Glance suggests it is not far short of the best on offer. Currently available at 10/1 and a proven performer on this ground and over this trip, Hardest Core is the pick.
23.40: Toronado looks a worthy favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Mile but he will still need to run to his very best to win. A line through Kingman gives him the edge over Mustajeeb. Anodin is a decent performer that has so far come up short at this level. We know a little about Seek Again, who was progressive at the end of last season. Even allowing for improvement since his move, it is unlikely he will be up to winning this. Once again value is king and Karakontie – saddled with what could be a disadvantageous draw – was nevertheless murdered in running in the Foret and should not be judged on that run alone. After a relatively light season, as a French Guineas winner, he appeals as the betting alternative to Toronado.

Based on races viewed, Spy’s analysis and list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

FRIDAY OCTOBER 31ST

NEWMARKET: 2.00: Not beaten far in the Cheveley Park when fourth to Tiggy Wiggy, Terror looks nailed on to win this; although, from a betting perspective it is of course late in the season to be nominating fillies. The opposition here looks far from testing, with only Avenue Montaigne (not seen since August) lining up with worthwhile form at this level. Any temptation to invest in Terror is readily tempered by the knowledge she is sure to be odds-on.

2.35: Historically this odd little six furlong conditions stakes tends to favour two-year-olds over their older rivals. This year’s juveniles are represented by Apache Storm who, despite a recent Kempton win, lines up with turf form that fails to inspire. However, on breeding she should appreciate the ground and the further 3lbs she receives as a result of Cam Hardie’s 3lbs allowance may be enough to tip the scales in her favour against ordinary opposition.

3.10: With two subsequent winners having emerged from the Musselburgh race in which Leaderene finished fourth last time, her run has a solid look to it, meaning, from the same mark, she could be the safest option here. Worryingly though, she is the third filly to catch the eye on a decidedly dodgy card.

It may be an early winter start for Newmarket but beneath the shadow of the Blue Mountains given the time difference, in Santa Anita day one of the Breeders’ Cup commences just as the local little perishers and urchins in the UK are rattling their begging bowls for the infernal ritual that is Halloween. This signifies it is time for racing fans to draw the curtains, turn off the lights and turn up the volume. In the 21.25 it is surprising to see Windsor Castle winner and speedball Hootenanny make a sudden leap from six furlongs in the Morny to a mile here against rivals that are more obvious candidates over this trip. The progressive Commemorative will need to pull out more than when winning the Autumn Stakes last time at Newmarket, but he is on a roll at present. Imperia carries American confidence but takes a step up in class. War Envoy looks a solid alternative to all. Good runs at the highest level here and in Ireland mean he should not be fazed by the occasion from a fair draw. With the assistance of Ryan Moore, a big run is envisaged from this son of War Front who is bred for the job and should have no problem with the forecast fast ground.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 25th:

Doncaster: 2.10: Growl may be capable of recovering winning form now he faces less testing company. Although thought to be below form in the Acomb at York, on reflection, a seven length defeat by Dutch Connection is probably a reasonable reflection of his ability after his run at Newbury when he was beaten a similar distance by Toocoolforschool in the Mill Reef. With nothing of that calibre in this field, he has his chance to justify the lofty home reputation he enjoys.

2.40: This is a tight handicap that could be monopolised by three-year-olds. Although nothing stands out, expected soft ground should suit an in-form Ruwasi who may be a pound or two ahead of his rating.

3.15: Depending on which form line you choose to take, cases can be made for several here. Last year’s winner Dungannon would have claims on that run, with Ballesteros and Confessional coming out the best of those that opposed that day on these revised terms. All three are hard to win with; however Confessional looks marginally most interesting on current form and these conditions will suit. In contrast it is hard to be over-optimistic about Golden Steps who tries the minimum trip for the first time having looked at Ascot – when admittedly unlucky in running – as if maybe a step up from six would benefit. Add to the mix the possible vagaries of the draw and clearly this race is hard to predict. One can only hope: Confessional shapes as if he is about to hit form but the low draw means he has no room to manoeuvre if he finds himself on the wrong part of the course.

3.50: After a lazy but willing enough victory in the Royal Lodge, Elm Park should be even more effective on this easier ground. Those with established form don’t quite look good enough to trouble him. The unexposed pair comprising of Celestial Path and Jacobean – who made up an enormous amount of ground having got behind on debut when eventually closing on always handy Royal Navy Ship – are open to improvement and look the major dangers.

5.00: Despite a couple of flashes indicating all is not lost this season, Top Notch Tonto’s overall profile this year is unconvincing, making him hard to fancy. Of the opposition, a much-improved Louis The Pious looks to have most in his favour and the weight allowance he receives from what may prove to be his biggest danger, Linton – who shaped as if needing his reappearance run last time – could tip the scales in his favour.

NEWBURY: For those prepared to take his best form into account, Red Galileo may be worth chancing in the St Simon Stakes at 2.20. A winner of one race, but fifth in this year’s Derby, the son of Dubawi has put a couple of decent runs together this autumn and it could be significant that on the occasions he has flopped the ground was firm. There are no such worries at Newbury now and if he shows the sort of form he is capable of he can take what looks like a weak Group 3. Sky Hunter’s belated win at Ayr last month told us little and it seems a long time since he finished third in the 2013 French Derby. Not looking in love with the game, there is no guarantee the hood will work a second time.

2.50: The fillies in the Listed look much of a muchness. Muffri’ha and Silver Rainbow could be anything at this stage, whilst there doesn’t look to be much to choose between Lacing, Astrelle and Shagah.

At CHEPSTOW there is a strong word for Son Du Berlais in the Persian War Hurdle at 3.35. A lightly-raced import from France that was impressive when winning at Newton Abbot last month, he is expected to scale the heights this season and represents yet more ammunition for the battalions that belong to the Nick Henderson yard.

CHAMPIONS’ DAY – Saturday Oct 18th

After receiving enough rain to sink a battleship, Ascot’s big autumn meeting is likely to be staged under a blue-and-grey sky with the ever-present prospect of a further deluge only a rolling cloud away.

The weather threatens to take the glitter from the proceedings, but the quality of racing remains constant. The Long Distance Cup that kick-starts the card at 1.45 is scheduled to be run on ground already described as heavy – soft in places. Versatile as regards trip and ground, last year’s St Leger winner and this year’s Gold Cup winner Leading Light is clearly the horse to beat. However, in view of conditions, this is not a card that should appeal to those in search of the obvious and that are prepared to take commensurate odds. The field is strong but the ground may even things up in favour of Whiplash Willie, who has run well this season against top class opponents but will come into his own on this surface. More importantly, for every stride he takes on ground he relishes, his opponents become vulnerable. With only just over a length to find on Estimate on their running in the Doncaster Cup, and after a somewhat unlucky but creditable effort in the Cadran, on ground that cannot be soft enough, Whiplash Willie has a chance to a share of the limelight at this belated stage of the season. At worse he looks a solid each-way prospect. The inclusion of unexposed Forgotten Rules adds interest. On pedigree he should cope with the ground but he has to prove he is up to this company. Although his win at Galway gives rise to the claim he could be rated within a few pounds of the principal players, backing him requires too much of a leap of faith. Estimate and the improving Big Orange (handles the mud but should struggle against Whiplash Willie on revised terms since Chester) appear to have chances in what looks no more than a five-horse contest.

2.20: G Force faces a raft of different conditions to those that saw him finally gain a big pot at Haydock. There is every chance that proven autumn campaigner Gordon Lord Byron may reverse Haydock Sprint form with him, but of greater interest could be Viztoria, a filly who peaked at this time last year, was a recent winner at the Curragh, and handles heavy ground. A rattling good filly on her day, she arrives here fresher than most and has the look of a horse that has been targeted at this event.

2.55: Perm any one of three, but there are plenty of reasons to switch allegiance as we go here. On the face of it the winner should come from the trio that comprises the improving Silk Sari, Chicquita and Hadaatha, but it is hard to be confident which way it will go.

3.30: The betting for the Queen Elizabeth II is dominated by the three-year-olds Night Of Thunder and Charm Spirit, who look closely matched on the evidence of their meetings to date. Both have serious chances but the ever-improving Integral, who according to her trainer is simply getting better with age, could run them close. Although hard to fancy on the balance of his form, it is worth pointing out that Kingsbarns finished third in this last year (not managed to equal that since) so it could be – a winner of the Racing Post a juvenile – that this is his time of year. Integral is a tentative pick.

4.05: The Champion Stakes revolves round Cirrus Des Aigles – the question being: at the age of eight, is it reasonable to assume he is anywhere near his best? Judged on a scrambling victory at Longchamp in the Group 2 Dollar (from which he was disqualified), that seems debatable. His current price assumes plenty and although I would dearly like to see him prevail, I will believe it when I see it. Free Eagle – once touted as the best horse Dermot Weld has trained – faces a demanding task after an interrupted season on only his fourth run and on ground that may not be ideal. In what is a far from straightforward contest, Noble Mission lines up with less advanced excuses than most and despite a once-chequered record, appears a safer betting proposition than those mentioned.

4.45: Bookmakers will be confident of a successful close to the meeting in what looks like a wide open Class 2 handicap. This easy ground should be ideal for Velox who has made steady improvement since an unlucky run at Epsom. His latest effort in the Cambridgeshire emphasises how much he has improved despite the constant attention of the handicapper. Luck will play its part, but, in as much as a horse in a race like this does make appeal, possible pattern performer Velox looks a very interesting contender from a double-figure price.

FUTURE CHAMPIONS’ DAY – Friday Oct 17th

NEWMARKET: 2.25: The Group 3 Cornwallis has looked a natural target for Squats since his Ascot victory in September when he displayed an electrifying turn of foot that took him from last-to-first inside a furlong. Beating Profitable that day – whom he has nothing to fear from on even better terms now – that killer-kick was in evidence last time at Ayr when only a bad draw and a messy race prevented him from lifting a listed event. Being by Dandy Man, it is hoped the soft ground should not be against him and he looks a reasonable wager to ignite what promises to be a busy betting weekend.

2.55: Although hardly a betting proposition at shades of odds-on, Ivawood ought to continue his run in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. Having won on soft ground, a well-grown two-year-old with a current physical advantage over his contemporaries, it is hard to envisage him getting beaten as a juvenile. An improved Muhaarar (who was behind Ivawood in the July Stakes) and the proven Cappella Sansevero represent his biggest dangers, but the favourite will have to underperform to surrender an unbeaten record.

3.25: Runner-up in the Moyglare and winner of the Rockfel, Lucida has the appropriate form to suggest she will win her first Group 1. Again, her price is likely to build-in such an assumption and in the face of strong opposition, although expected to win, encountering the softest surface of her career so far, and with Agnes Stewart and Marsh Hawk both expected to act on the surface, her task is not straightforward. Therefore from a betting viewpoint she is probably best watched.

4.00: On a day packed with quality, the ground means there may be a couple of notable absentees from the Dewhurst this year, but it is nevertheless a top class event. Progressive Estidhkaar is the obvious one to beat and based on his performance in the Champagne at Doncaster he looks ready for this transition to Group 1 company. He faces six smart rivals – none of whom can be comfortably discarded. Smuggler’s Cove attempts a serious rise in class after a couple of taking wins in Ireland. His action suggests he should cope with much softer ground, but as yet he cannot lay claim to being in this class. Secret Brief and Maftool (no certainty to cope with the ground) are decent, whilst the well-thought of Kodi Bear makes his reappearance after winning a listed at Ascot in July. Dutch Connection has worked his way up to this level. His form stacks up and therefore he should not be underestimated, particularly as he is a son of soft ground sire Dutch Art. Belardo is considered to be better than his latest run when behind Estidhkaar at Doncaster and with the hood now reached for, could get closer this time. Estidhkaar clearly warrants his place at the head of the market but even so will need to produce his A-game to score.

5.10: An 18lbs weight rise means Air Pilot has paid the penalty for his point blank success at Newbury last time. As a son of Zamindar he clearly relishes easy ground but this opposition, as it should in a Group 3, threatens to be testing. A relatively fresh Code Of Honour is interesting after his latest win at Newbury, whilst the proven performer at this level, Grandeur (who does not always deliver on the day) lines-up with the right qualifications on paper.

Newmarket stages an excellent card, one on which not everything may follow the script. Packed with interest, Squats is nominated as a value bet and as a curtain-raiser for a couple of similar suggested wagers on Saturday.

Redcar: Having created a favourable impression on debut at Newmarket (where he went to post much too freely so no surprise to see a hood applied now) Tawaasheesh is presented with a soft option in a maiden he should win at 1.55. However, it is early days to take a short price about him and a watching brief is advised.
Soft ground means one or two short-priced favourites may not be the safe prospects they appear at Haydock, whilst jump fans get what for them is their first taste of action at the home of National Hunt at Cheltenham. With something for everyone, racing fans are presented with an engrossing day.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 11th:

Newmarket: 2.05: The card starts with the Group 3 Autumn Stakes – a race with a good history. Nashwan was a past winner – more recently Kingston Hill took it last year. The line-up this time round looks potentially strong. Recent Doncaster winner Commemorative should not be underestimated – a rough assessment puts him on a par with several of these: notably Future Empire, Bartholomew Fair and Strong Chemistry, all of whom have similar credentials. However, recent Leopardstown winner Order Of St George scored by a convincing eight lengths then and not only stays this trip, but is effective on easy ground. He is a serious contender here.

2.40: This is probably not a race to get too involved with; nevertheless, a step up in trip looks likely to suit the progressive Provenance, who is not the easiest of rides but who has the advantage of regular partner Ryan Moore. Provenance and Blue Waltz look two fillies in top form at this late stage of the season and are therefore nominated as the two against the field.

3.10: A further 5lbs hike threatens to sabotage Connecticut; even so, a proven smart performer, he may be capable of offsetting that rise now that he returns to a mile-and-a-half. Epsom Hill and Battersea are horses with similar profiles in a tight contest, whilst Top Tug – who we have not seen May – looked decent when he defeated Cloudscape that day and could be ahead of his rating.

3.50: The Cesarewitch – second leg of the famous Autumn Double – looks as knotty as ever. Quick Jack is surely yet another cleverly placed runner from his imaginative trainer, who seems to turn out plots as regularly as Stephen King does his novels. Carefully campaigned over both hurdles and on the Flat and with an enviable racing record, representing Tony Martin, Quick Jack will not be making up the numbers. However, he will need to produce a personal best from a mark of 94. Big Easy ran an excellent trial over this course and distance in September and looks likely to play a part in the finish. Two less obvious candidates that could outrun their prices are Groovejet (has her stamina to prove but a chance on her Park Hill second if seeing out the trip) and possibly the best each-way contender in the race, Communicator, who comes here on the back of a good run at Haydock and will appreciate this test of stamina and the ease underfoot.

York: 3.30: The wily old bird that is Mick Easterby has chosen the competitive Coral Sprint to launch a race-fit Aetna after her eye-catching return to action at Newmarket at the end of last month. Narrowly beaten after a staying-on third on ground that was too lively that day, she will find today’s conditions more to her liking and, relatively fresh at this late stage of the season, promises to be hard to beat.

YORK – FRIDAY OCTOBER 9th:

Sometimes you find yourself looking at race cards and wondering if you would be better being otherwise employed – deciphering a document written in Mandarin for example.

Horse racing demands a fair degree of guesswork: guesswork over the draw, the going, whether the German group winner that has changed stables can exploit what looks like a generous mark; or whether its best days are never to be reproduced and best forgotten. Whether a step up in trip will suit, whether the fact that a horse has only won on left-handed tracks is a coincidence, or whether there is a deeper-seated explanation lurking between those lugs that perch at the top if its head. These and other imponderables combine to make an MOT-type checklist punters are required to address before striking a bet with any confidence.

Sometimes it all seems too convoluted for comfort. Sometimes it seems we are faced with situations that require us to throw caution and common sense to the winds before picking up the phone or pressing the button.

Those making a success of this business will mostly tell you that waiting for the perfect bet is pretty much a waste of time, and that the answer is to employ a scatter gun approach – betting as often as possible in the belief that you will be right on enough occasions to bust the percentages.

Place one hundred bets a month and achieve a strike rate of 25% and, providing the average winning price exceeds 3/1, profit is guaranteed. On the face of it any ratio that allows 75% of selections to lose and still show a profit looks like it’s part of a tempting proposition. It also takes a good deal of pressure from the punter’s shoulders. All gamblers get things wrong (the clue is in the title). Getting things wrong in horse racing is a given. Even when you are right you can be wrong. Not many pursuits carry such a deflating caveat.

The trick to success is to constantly identify horses whose prices are greater than their winning chances. Doing this is a knack. Bookmakers are engaged in putting a gun to punters’ heads and making them tread the exact opposite path. They want them to strike bets at prices that reflect a lower chance than suggested by available information and the wild card that is probability.

Therefore, as a punter, if you contrive to consistently outsmart the market, your chance of long-term profit is greatly increased. The trick here, as with all success stories, is not to try. By that I mean, don’t set out to identify market mistakes – let them come your way by natural selection. After form analysis, by targeting those candidates that disregard the obvious (famously, and correctly identified as the bleedin’ obvious by John Cleese), and concentrating on races that feature wobbly favourites, or a runner that you consider to be underpriced for whatever reason (owned by a member of royalty; ridden by the jockey of the moment, talked up by a high-profile pundit or organisation), you will increase the possibility of your selection being overpriced. As with all positives and negatives – for every underpriced runner, an overpriced one must follow.

You might wonder where all this is leading on a column that is entitled “Free Tips” and advertises itself as concentrating on the York program for Friday October 9th.

Fair point… The York card – like many this time of the year – is far from easy. The races are well-subscribed and in many cases contain horses that have leapfrogged their way to the headlines in recent weeks. Two, seen as the most likely winners on the card, are hardly likely to have escaped the notice of the odds-compilers. Consequently the question is whether we can expect their prices to be bigger than their winning chances.

After only two runs, the handicapper has not too much to go on when assessing a mark for Acolyte, who runs in the nursery at 2.00. What we can say is that seven furlongs appeared to stretch this son of Acclamation on his debut when third to subsequent Royal Lodge winner Elm Park. Dropped to today’s trip of six furlongs, he was always in control at Kempton last time and a mark of 78 could easily be generous. On the face of it his opponents look exposed; therefore, if reproducing what he looks to be capable of, Acolyte should win. No prices are available at the time of writing. There can be little doubt that Acolyte will be favourite: the question potential backers have to ask is whether the price will justify a bet. My guess (and that is the correct term for what follows) is that Acolyte will be 9/4 in the morning and that he could easily represent a 13/8 chance in reality. So, to quote a well-known television presenter: Deal or No Deal?

Having won the Silver Cambridgeshire at Newmarket two weeks ago, GM Hopkins lines up with similar credentials in the 3.00. It could be argued the handicapper has more information to go on here and therefore that a mark of 100 is an accurate assessment of GM Hopkins’ capability. He did win with plenty of authority at Newmarket and, although the handicapper has hoisted him by 9lbs which nudges him towards pattern class, at the time of writing he faces seventeen rivals, none of them looking as if they are likely to produce an ace from the bottom of the deck. Even so his task may not appear to be as straightforward as Acolyte’s, which has to be built-in to his price now. There is very chance his price may be about right: 11/4 in the morning – 2/1 come race time.

Both horses are feasible selections but, anyone can make a selection – the meaningful question is: are they bets?

Bearing in mind, with the attainable example shown earlier – that of a strike rate of 25% and an average price of over 3/1 about winners mathematically guaranteeing a profit – they hover on the periphery. Of the two, Acolyte looks the safer, but, not one to allow bookmakers to dictate my betting habits unless it can be helped; only when prices are chalked up tomorrow are we in a better position to make a decision…

SATURDAY OCTOBER 4th:

Newmarket Tips

Fillies get a shot at a big payday in the opening sales race at 1.50. Osaila’s form with Cursory Glance – whom she has encountered twice – entitles her to market prominence here and she looks like the filly to beat, especially as the Moyglare form was franked by Lucida in last week’s Rockfel.

Half-an-hour later at 2.20 the colts’ equivalent looks more open. Unexposed Tannaaf – a clear-cut winner on the July course in August who is highly regarded (reflected by a Dewhurst entry) – is likely to prove a serious candidate. If the forecast rain arrives that may suit The Warrior, whose action suggests firm ground at the Curragh last time – allied to an interrupted passage – may have been against him. Those with established form are represented by last week’s Royal Lodge fourth Misterioso – who may improve for that run his first since the middle of July – and Secret Brief, who is not certain to confirm with latest running with Heartbreak Hero. That said the standard they set is not over high so the promising Tannaaf is taken to come out on top en route to greater heights.

3.30: A glittering day at the Suffolk track is crowned by the Group 1 Sun Chariot. Once again it has attracted a strong field and on a day when Gallic eyes are largely focused on Longchamp, the French field what could be a formidable challenge. Responsible for three runners with excellent claims, Andre Fabre is mob-handed. Fintry steps into Group 1 company for the first time and Esoterique returns to the scene of her Dahlia triumph after a credible effort against Charm Spirit and Toronado in the Moulin last month. Although she has a little in hand of her stable companion Miss France, the latter has had a relatively light season after winning the 1000 Guineas here in May and is likely to be sharper now. Having looked like a top class filly as a juvenile and again when winning the season’s first classic, she is the selection. Integral, who was second in a weaker renewal last year but who has gone from strength to strength since, has to be respected but Miss France is the call.

After what looked like a terrific effort in the Ayr Gold Cup from the unfavoured side of the track, Minalisa steps back into listed company at 4.40. There is a danger that strong winds and rain may alter conditions significantly, in which case she should not be inconvenienced by softening ground. Even with her 3lbs penalty she should be hard to beat.

(Note was a non runner due to ground change)

Ascot: After his demolition job in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster, Muthmir makes the anticipated leap into higher company, contesting the listed that kicks off the card at 2.05. Blitzing to a course record on St Leger day, if that run is taken at face value he is potentially well ahead of his official rating and should prove too progressive and too good for decent but exposed rivals.

(Note was a non runner due to ground change)

ASCOT FRIDAY OCTOBER 3rd:

Handicaps rule here on a difficult card that contains two long-distance events and a classified and a listed that both contain horses that are hard to evaluate.

Betting opportunities appear limited, although Lawyer, who his stable appear to have been placed in a race with the handicapper after a fair third last weekend at Newmarket, would have a strong chance in the Class 3 handicap at 4.15 if repeating that latest effort. Racing from the same mark as when a close third to Consign last Thursday, Lawyer will rise a few pounds on the back of that run so has his best chance of the season now. A decent run from Consign in the 2.30 on the card will surely boost his chance and could easily result in his price contracting. With better to come over the weekend, he is seen as the only positive on an otherwise quiet day.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 4th:

Newmarket: Fillies get a shot at a big payday in the opening sales race at 1.50. Osaila’s form with Cursory Glance – whom she has encountered twice – entitles her to market prominence here and she looks like the filly to beat, especially as the Moyglare form was franked by Lucida in last week’s Rockfel.

Half-an-hour later at 2.20 the colts’ equivalent looks more open. Unexposed Tannaaf – a clear-cut winner on the July course in August who is highly regarded (reflected by a Dewhurst entry) – is likely to prove a serious candidate. If the forecast rain arrives that may suit The Warrior, whose action suggests firm ground at the Curragh last time – allied to an interrupted passage – may have been against him. Those with established form are represented by last week’s Royal Lodge fourth Misterioso – who may improve for that run his first since the middle of July – and Secret Brief, who is not certain to confirm with latest running with Heartbreak Hero. That said the standard they set is not over high so the promising Tannaaf is taken to come out on top en route to greater heights.

3.30: A glittering day at the Suffolk track is crowned by the Group 1 Sun Chariot. Once again it has attracted a strong field and on a day when Gallic eyes are largely focused on Longchamp, the French field what could be a formidable challenge. Responsible for three runners with excellent claims, Andre Fabre is mob-handed. Fintry steps into Group 1 company for the first time and Esoterique returns to the scene of her Dahlia triumph after a credible effort against Charm Spirit and Toronado in the Moulin last month. Although she has a little in hand of her stable companion Miss France, the latter has had a relatively light season after winning the 1000 Guineas here in May and is likely to be sharper now. Having looked like a top class filly as a juvenile and again when winning the season’s first classic, she is the selection. Integral, who was second in a weaker renewal last year but who has gone from strength to strength since, has to be respected but Miss France is the call.

After what looked like a terrific effort in the Ayr Gold Cup from the unfavoured side of the track, Minalisa steps back into listed company at 4.40. There is a danger that strong winds and rain may alter conditions significantly, in which case she should not be inconvenienced by softening ground. Even with her 3lbs penalty she should be hard to beat.

Ascot: After his demolition job in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster, Muthmir makes the anticipated leap into higher company, contesting the listed that kicks off the card at 2.05. Blitzing to a course record on St Leger day, if that run is taken at face value he is potentially well ahead of his official rating and should prove too progressive and too good for decent but exposed rivals.

 ASCOT FRIDAY OCTOBER 3rd:

Handicaps rule here on a difficult card that contains two long-distance events and a classified and a listed that both contain horses that are hard to evaluate.

Betting opportunities appear limited, although Lawyer, who his stable appear to have been placed in a race with the handicapper after a fair third last weekend at Newmarket, would have a strong chance in the Class 3 handicap at 4.15 if repeating that latest effort. Racing from the same mark as when a close third to Consign last Thursday, Lawyer will rise a few pounds on the back of that run so has his best chance of the season now. A decent run from Consign in the 2.30 on the card will surely boost his chance and could easily result in his price contracting. With better to come over the weekend, he is seen as the only positive on an otherwise quiet day.

NEWMARKET SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 27th:

Nafaqa’s defeat of subsequent Mill Reef winner Toocoolforschool means he is the form pick in the Royal Lodge at 2.35. A fluent winner of his maiden at Newbury after posting definite promise when slow to stride in the Chesham at Royal Ascot, he should have no problem with the trip. Just short of top class, this Group 2 looks a realistic target for him. Elm Park is held in high regard and this recent acquisition for Qatar Racing has been supplemented for this. He and Lord Ben Stack (whose form is solid but requires improving upon) are seen as the principal dangers.

3.10: After what has been a sparkling first campaign, Tiggy Wiggy bids to end her season on a high in the Group 1 Cheveley Park. Based on her last two wins – blitzing rivals in Newbury’s Super Sprint and beating subsequent Group 1 Moyglare winner Cursory Glance in the Lowther – only the vagaries that often beset her sex at this time of year threaten her excellent record. She ought to have too much speed for old adversary Anthem Alexander (who is 3lbs better off than at York) and the wide-margin maiden winners Tendu and Terror, both of whom could be anything but surely won’t be good enough for this test so soon in their careers. That said, Tendu has been supplemented for this from a stable that is not in the habit of making mistakes, so she should be respected at the very least. The inclusion of French filly High Celebrity promises to add spice to an intriguing contest.

3.50: So what are we to make of the Cambridgeshire? Cornrow has obvious claims now he tackles this longer trip after a taking run in a strong handicap last time. The forecast fast ground should be ideal. The progressive Velox, reunited with the last man to be successful on him, Cam Hardie, and therefore set to benefit from his 5lbs allowance, is another with strong pretensions, although he might be more effective with cut in the ground. Balty Boys, a decent staying on second to Captain Cat last time, could be the value at a price from his low draw. Less convincing but of some interest after a run last time that suggested all may not be lost, God Willing, a useful two-year-old that failed to progress, is worth a second glance.

6.05: Although facing several with upward profiles, Captain Morley will appreciate a return to twelve furlongs – a trip he ran well over at Royal Ascot when third to Elite Army and Windshear. Clearly he failed to last home in the Melrose last time and his current mark gives him a chance although he has to concede weight to several likely lads.

NEWMARKET SEPTEMBER 26th:

Headquarters has done punters few favours today with a card that may be interesting but looks a hard one to decipher.

After an excellent second in the Group 1 Moyglare to Cursory Glance last time, Lucida looks an obvious selection in the Group 2 Rockfel at 2.40. It is unlikely she will encounter anything of the quality she met last time. With no Cursory Glance, Found or Malabar in this field, her chance is clear-cut providing she is able to replicate that effort.

Less obvious is the outcome of the Group 2 Shadwell Joel Stakes at 3.15, although Captain Cat looks a worthy favourite and the one to beat. Tulius has a chance but is better with cut in the ground, whilst it would be no surprise if the improving Custom Cut, Outstrip – who was in fine form at this time last year but comes from an unpredictable stable – or Arod, who probably requires ten furlongs to show his best, were able to upset the applecart.

Although making only limited betting appeal, after a reasonable fourth in the St Leger, Windshear is entitled to start favourite for the Listed Godolphin Stakes. The benefactors are represented by one of their more complicated inmates in Penglai Pavilion. Useful when with Andre Fabre last year, he has yet to show form approaching that level with his new handler and can only be watched. Derby fifth Red Galileo seems to have two ways of running and has only ever won a maiden on the all-weather. Flying The Flag may find this trip stretching his suspect stamina; whereas on breeding, Ayrad (who has something to find with the principals) looks all set to benefit from a step up to twelve furlongs.

NEWMARKET SEPTEMBER 25th:

2.00: Although just behind Game Pie at Doncaster when both were making their debuts, most observers would confidently expect Mohatem to turn that form round in a heartbeat here. Noted finishing strongly from an unpromising position, Mohatem freewheeled into fifth behind Commemorative in what looked like a reasonable maiden and this son of Distorted Humour gets his chance today. Only ground-changing rain would temper confidence.

3.10: It has been a quiet year for Jeremy Noseda’s one-time virus-ridden stable, but now they appear to be emerging back into daylight many of his charges return to action relatively fresh. Dance Of Heroes has such a look and, assuming he will improve after an excellent reappearance effort at Sandown last month, could be handily weighted against more exposed rivals.

3.40: After a cracking run in a valuable sales race last time when third behind his stable companion Mubtaghaa, Valley Of Fire takes another step into the unknown now as he faces Group 3 company. There is no obvious reason to expect a reversal with Mubtaghaa, but Valley Of Fire, who was having only his second appearance after winning a moderate maiden on debut, left the clear impression he was capable of better and it is significant his shrewd trainer appears willing to sacrifice a winnable mark by contesting this.

4.15: Assuming there is no reoccurrence of the pre-race jitters that certainly contributed to a below-par run last time in Ireland, Pallasator ought to be good enough to win the Listed Jockey Club Rose Bowl, exploiting Times Up’s age and Flying Officer’s absence from the track since the spring. His Ebor fourth from top weight gives him strong claims.

5.55: With half the scheduled field out of the weights, Aetna – who has been off the track since May – will be popular, but her chance would be greatly increased on softer ground. This is no cakewalk and it could be she will be a different proposition next time with this run under her belt and on ground more suited to her preference.

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 20th:

AYR: A big day for the track – a bigger one for the bookmakers if punters aren’t careful!
2.05: After a fair run at Doncaster last week in a cut-and-thrust Flying Childers when never able to quite get to grips with the leaders, Ainippe shaped as if she would be more at home over this extra furlong. By and large her opponents in this Group 3 will have to pull out more than so far shown. On the face of it Zuhoor Baynoona’s third to Patience Alexander (gone off the boil since) and Tiggy Wiggy at York in May gives her a chance; but to a degree that was a race of two halves, leading to a misleading result. Having been off the track since, she can only be watched from a low draw, making Ainippe a safer option.

2.40: With at least twenty-six runners scheduled to line-up the Silver Cup is naturally set to be fiercely competitive, so with any number of factors in their favour – including the vagaries of an unpredictable draw – bookmakers will be banking on a result here. Punters tempted to play in this are reduced to a virtual pin-sticking exercise. Surely no one will be looking to bet seriously in this or its gold counterpart. Cutting through a long short list: well-fancied Redvers may be better over seven, a remark that also applies to Mission Approved. On the positive side, cases can be made for the in-form duo that is Bogart (appears to be ideally drawn and likely to be well-backed on that alone) and Arctic Feeling, who it would appear is currently in the form of his life, but, based on the evidence of yesterday when high numbers seemed favoured, may not be ideally berthed drawn one. From what looks like another desirable draw, Huntsmans Close (who is closely matched with Arctic Feeling but lacks his scope) is another likely to attract morning money.

3.50: Winner of a strong handicap at the Curragh last Sunday (Arctic Feeling was fourth), comparatively lightly-raced Watchable could be a bit better than his current mark. An excellent third to Louis The Pious (weighted to confirm that form but peaked that day and has made little impact since) in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, he clearly handles the hurly burly big races provide and another big run looks on the cards if able to defy what now looks like a draw disadvantage. A winner of a listed race at Naas in July and with decent form last autumn, Minalisa could be fancied to outrun a fat price but the two box is cause for concern. The draw at tracks such at Ayr is transitory, so it may change with conditions overnight. However, at the time of writing there is clear-cut evidence a high number (the higher the better) is preferable.

Newbury: 1.50: Hillstar ought to get on the score sheet in this Group 3 but it is hard to be confident enough to translate that comment to a bet. A decent enough type, it seems fair to say he is something of an underachiever that will need to pull out his best in order to defeat Tasady and the progressive pair comprising of Glorious Protector and Nautilus.

2.20: Limato’s fluent success in the Rose Bowl over this course from Cotai Glory makes him the obvious choice here and he should prove hard to beat. Toocoolforschool looks potentially overpriced in view of solid form that approaches this level, but he probably will be caught out by Limato and Strath Burn who look the principals in that order.

Newmarket: 2.30: A step up in trip ought to suit Lady Of Dubai, who has taken the eye on her two runs to date.

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 19th:

On a big day in Scotland it seems reasonable to accord Ayr star billing on the racing front. By and large the card is tough: plenty of handicaps featuring some tricky customers…
Roossey would have claims in the 2.05 on his York effort, but, worryingly for potential supporters, he did pull hard last time – in the event probably doing well to finish third – so a reoccurrence of such antics will make life doubly hard. Enlace, Son Of Africa and Honeysuckle Lil are among several dangerous opponents.

Boris Grigoriev did us a favour at this meeting last year and is a definite contender again in the 3.10. He has the look of a horse that his able trainer has stored up for something such as this. Pea Shooter is an obvious danger.

After two wins that confirm there is more to come, Squats takes the expected hike in grade to contest the Listed at 3.45. Particularly impressive last time at Ascot when coming from last to first to win a nursery after meeting trouble in running, he has a killer finishing kick. Judging by what we saw at Ascot he is value for more than the 7lbs he has been raised and can put these rivals to the sword. Despite bringing French Group 3 form to the table, possible favourite Jane’s Memory looks as if she will be better suited by rain. Mind Of Madness, who is top-rated going into this, should struggle to concede 3lbs to the selection.

At NEWBURY, despite the form of the Convivial not really working out as many expected, Foreign Diplomat will shape much fitter after his debut third then, meaning this well-regarded son of Oasis Dream will take all the beating in their opening maiden at 1.50. He looks open to more improvement than twice-raced Desert Force, whilst the maiden in which Encore D’Or made his debut at Newmarket did not look a particularly strong one. It will take a very smart newcomer to lower Foreign Diplomat’s colours.

ST LEGER SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 13th:

DONCASTER: 2.05: The card for the last classic of 2014 kicks off with aspirants to that level in 2015. The Group 2 Champagne Stakes is one of the better juvenile trials and with three top contenders in opposition this year’s field looks strong. There is no denying Superlative winner Estidhkaar lines up with hefty form credentials. He looks a decent prospect but the three pound penalty means he will have to be top notch to defy the well-thought of Belardo and the solid War Envoy. Belardo’s only defeat was at Newmarket in the July Stakes when, on horrible ground and from a disadvantageous draw, he was a running-on fourth to Ivawood. Wins either side underline his potential and he looked very smart when scooting clear at Newbury last time. Dewhurst-bound, he should be followed until beaten and gets the call.

2.40: Arguably unlucky at Goodwood in the Steward’s Cup (his second run within a week) when he saw too much daylight; after a respectable break, Muthmir gets another crack at a big handicap over this extended five furlongs. A two pound rise is not prohibitive, and from a mark of 100 he gets a chance to confirm the impression he is group material. Of the rest, plenty can be fancied but Bogart (11lbs better in with Muthmir for York and in better form now), has slipped to a workable mark and is worth considering.

3.15: Two talented types with an under-performing profile threaten to dominate the betting for this. Having failed to sparkle at sprinting, Aljamaaheer reverts to his best trip, taking on Gregorian, who should have won the Group 3 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last time but was worried out of it by Breton Rock. Although he has a bit to find with the best of these, That Is The Spirit can be relied upon to run his race. Far from disgraced against older horses last time, he looks a safer option than his highflying opposition.

3.50: The St Leger trip has often proved a buffer to class. Although endowed with stamina on the distaff side, being by Mastercraftsman, Kingston Hill is not certain to stay the all-important extra two furlongs. On the face of it, plenty with more cut and dried chances have failed. For those prepared to take the Derby runner-up on, there is no shortage of contenders. Snow Sky and Romsdal look the two with the most solid credentials, but this trip will suit Hartnell and possibly Scotland, who could be the value alternative in what looks like a puzzle of Houdini proportions.

4.25: Mount Logan could be another winner for the Luca Cumani stable – a yard that has enjoyed a fruitful autumn and has not stopped churning out the winners just yet.

DONCASTER FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 12th:

1.40: With Molecomb winner Cotai Glory, Gimcrack third Ahlan Emarati and Irish hotpot Ainippe in attendance, the Group 2 Flying Childers looks like a race that will take a deal of winning.

2.10: Sir Walter Scott ran as if finding this trip too far last time, but his shrewd trainer perseveres so that may not be an accurate reflection. Retirement Plan, Adventure Seeker and Stomachion all have chances in a very tough to solve event.

2.40: Back to her best form over an inadequate trip last time, and stepped up to a more suitable distance, Estimate’s credentials are inescapable now. Times Up has something to find with the royal filly and the other serious candidate, Whiplash Willie, needs softer ground. This is Estimate’s race to lose.

3.15: Outpaced over six at Ascot, Muraaqaba took the Sweet Solera in style at Newmarket and a further hike to a mile should present no problem for her. At the same sort of price as Estimate, her winning claims here are not quite so cut and dry. Agnes Stewart looks a serious danger, whilst, although unlikely winners, Banzari and Shagah cannot be entirely ruled out.

3.45: Danzeno completes a hat-trick of comparatively short-priced contenders on the card here. Obviously he has every chance without looking a tempting betting proposition.

4.25: White Lake created an impression on debut at York; however, as yet the race he won has failed to receive a solid endorsement – although Erik The Red may redress that in the maiden this afternoon. As it stands, Nafaqa poses a strong threat and it looks like a case of seeing whether what we saw at York was an accurate reflection of White Lake’s ability.

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 11th:

After a somewhat tepid start to this meeting yesterday, Doncaster hits stride today.

Despite facing stiffer opposition than she has so far encountered, Bragging will be high on most lists in the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes at 2.10. Having made giant strides in handicaps at Newmarket and York she looks like a filly capable of making the transition to this company and, with apparently no ground bias and an electric turn of foot that has meant she has won her last two races without turning a hair, she is hard to get away from. Penalised J Wonder is the most obvious threat without being a filly to send shivers down the spine of Bragging’s supporters. One-time Guineas hope Amazing Maria needs to initiate a major recovery if she is to figure, as does the somewhat wayward and reluctant Kiyoshi, who is making a meal of returning to winning ways. Joyeuse and Muteela look sure to perform with credit but look short of the required standard, whilst Token Of Love remains in fine form but in all probability today’s race will take more winning than anything she has so far tackled. On the sort of upward curve that wins races at this time of year, although unproven in this company, Bragging seems the logical pick without necessarily looking like a bet.

2.40: Fillies again take centre stage here in the Park Hill, where the far from straightforward Seal Of Approval – who may have won this last year but for clipping heels – has to be considered. However, despite teasing her supporters this season, she has not been entirely convincing, looking a reluctant participant on at least two occasions and only finishing her races under sufferance. With dangers aplenty lurking, she is overlooked. A line through Sultanina (it may not be that solid but is all we have to go on) gives Silk Sari the beating of Venus De Milo, meaning she and the consistent Arabian Comet may be the two to latch on to. Narrowly beaten at Goodwood and York on her last two runs, this return to 1m 6f will suit Arabian Comet, who should run her race and looks a solid each-way selection. In the belief she can raise her game once more, Silk Sari, another likely to benefit from this extended trip and a filly with a touch of class, is narrowly preferred for win purposes. Melrose Abbey will be a better prospect later in the season when the ground turns soft.

3.15: The late defection of Valley Of Fire robs many of us with the day’s best opportunity in this valuable sales race that may now be claimed by Fox Trotter, whose chance is undeniable if he is able to repeat his fourth in the Richmond to Ivawood. Winner aside, the placings read well, but Fox Trotter’s absence since late in July sounds a note of caution, particularly as he represents a yard that tends to fly high with their inmates once they have hit the track on debut.

3.45: Elhamme sets the standard here. He probably has most to fear from the unexposed Long Cross and the progressive The Corsican.

5.00: King Of Normandy, Commemorative and Erik The Red (may have been flattered at York) all showed enough on debut to make this a potentially hard race for those having their first experiences. Sociopath and Secateur both line up with reputations, although others make appeal on paper in a race likely to look less cloudy once betting starts in earnest.

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 6th:

HAYDOCK:

2.40: Unlucky at Goodwood last time, in that he was too far adrift of the leaders in a slowly run race, Captain Cat, a hold-up horse that should be suited by the strong pace set by Balty Boys, gets his chance to atone.

3.15: Whatever the fate of Captain Cat in the opener, the Charlton stable appear to have excellent prospects with Quest For More in this Class 2 handicap. A strong finisher when second to Edge Of Sanity at the Ebor meeting, he has the look of a horse about to peak and can exploit the 13lbs he receives from likely favourite Havana Cooler. Current odds suggest he is a value alternative.

3.50: The juggernaut that is Sole Power threatens to continue rolling in the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup. Against plenty of the usual suspects, those anxious to oppose him will presumably in part be banking on six furlongs being his undoing. However, he does have excellent form at the trip and such supposed negativity could be tenuous against such a determined competitor. We have yet to see the best of the progressive Music Master, who may provide the biggest danger; whilst, although respected back to a more realistic distance, the intriguing Cougar Mountain has yet to prove he is quite in this league.

4.25: Now 6lbs better in with Felix Leiter for just under two lengths when denied a clear run at York, Roossey is taken to exact revenge. The winner battled on in terrific style that day, especially as it was clear he was uncomfortable on the quick surface. But Roossey is the one that appeals at today’s revised weights.

KEMPTON:

2.20: In all its various guises, Godolphin has developed into a bête noire for most punters. Only stubbornness and an endless and total disregard for money, means this outfit is still in business in its present form. Racing is a specialised pursuit; the notion that one man can buy, train, place and all but ride his horses, smacks of ultimate conceit. Now and then, despite all the brickbats thrown their way, one or two inmates actually survive the ordeal. Responsible for three out of the seven runners in the September Stakes, last year’s winner, the penalised Prince Bishop carries the first colours – not always the best guide as to what to expect. Based on his clear bias for an artificial surface and a couple of near-misses at the Dubai Carnival this year when drawn out towards the road to Abu Dhabi, an on song Cat O’Mountain, who had Prince Bishop behind him in the World Cup, should hold sway against his rivals in blue, providing his far from convincing trainer has prepared him correctly. Cat O’Mountain runs like a horse that should stay this trip (although that is not certain). If he does his killer turn of foot on this surface should be decisive.

From this perspective Ascot looks a bit like the inside of one of those Las Vegas casinos, where the house ensures there are no clocks or similar distractions to dissuade those that feel lucky from reaching for their chips. Even the stakes races look tricky.

Having been raised only 2lbs for his nursery win last time Squats is given another chance by the handicapper at 4.05. The minimum trip seems to suit him well and he should again be too good for Profitable on these altered terms.

Lightly raced and a filly with the scope for improvement, Fray, second to the well-regarded Water Hole last time, looks the one to beat in the 4.40.

With Quest For More and Roossey looking interesting betting propositions, Haydock looks the track to concentrate on.

SATURDAY AUGUST 23rd:

York:2.40: Despite top weight, the progressive Connecticut may be good enough to thwart some equally upwardly mobile types here. Even so, Captain Morley’s third at Ascot from a pound lower makes him appealing at the weights and he threatens to provide most danger in a tricky race.

3.15: Speedy and smart though he is, the penalty threatens to put paid to Baitha Alga, who will need to be a seriously good horse to give weight away all round. A return to six should suit Muhaarar, who represents the excellent form of Ivawood and he gets a chance now to put a below-par run at Ascot over seven behind him. Jungle Cat and unlucky Goodwood loser Beacon are others to consider in a tight contest.

3.50: As always this is a fiercely competitive handicap – they don’t tend to hand Ebors out on a plate! Quite clearly this is the culmination of a plan for Pallasator who will relish this trip and has to be feared. This is reflected in his price and from his wide draw and, against serious opposition, it could be worth looking elsewhere. Representing the stable that was successful last year, Mighty Yar looks reasonably treated on his best form (has at least the same chance of De Rigueur on Newmarket form) and his latest second to the progressive Kings Fete slots him nicely into contention over a trip likely to suit. Ted Veale would almost certainly want softer ground to show his best; Van Percy and Mutual Regard have chances, but need to pull out more than they have so far shown. Sir Walter Scott could be the dark horse after only three runs and a promising effort at Newbury last time, but the stable jockey does not ride, which may be significant. Mighty Yar looks a solid alternative to a short-priced favourite.

Goodwood: 2.20: Malabar was not exactly impressive when winning at Ascot, but her form still reads well and she has to have every chance back in better company now.

4.40: Kings Fete looked a trifle unfortunate by the way the race unfolded at the big meeting here, and now he know he can handle the vagaries of the track there is every chance he will gain amends with interest in this listed contest. Tackling this step up in trip should not be beyond him, and in a race where the three-year-olds can dominate, he is taken to come out on top.

YORK FRIDAY AUGUST 22nd:

1.55: A typically hard handicap kicks off the day, complicated by a couple of hard to assess types. Communicator would surely be better over further, Lahaag looks like a horse about to run into form, but whether he can strike in a race such as this is open to question.

2.30: Pale Mimosa is the fly in the ointment and could easily punch a hole in established form represented by Cavalryman and Estimate. However, there is a suspicion that fast ground may not be to her best advantage. Once again it is a difficult race to call with confidence.

3.05: It doesn’t get any easier. The three-year-olds look interesting. The horse with the best form, Cable Bay, may not be on top form after his lengthy absence. That said, the fact that connections have decided to come here rather than pot-hunt a smaller prize, could indicate he is about hit the ground running. To a degree the race revolves round him. But well regarded Mushir may step up on what he have seen so far and Ertijaal (unlucky at Chester last time) may benefit from this trip. Over seven furlongs with an immediate kink, the draw is also likely to play its part in the result.

3.40: Riding on a crest of a wave this season, Sole Power is obviously the one to beat. Without doubt the interesting contender is Cougar Mountain, who ran a screamer in the July Cup for such an inexperienced three-year-old. It is possible this drop back to five may see him in the money here.

4.20: Derby entry Dissolution made a highly promising debut at Newbury behind Chesham fourth Nafaqa and it will take something smart to lower his colours now.

4.55: Moohaarib is at least worth keeping on side in this tight handicap. Having worked himself into a stew beforehand at Ascot last time, if he is more tractable here, from the same mark, he could pay a part in proceedings.

YORK –THURSDAY August 21st:

155: As is often the case with these richly-endowed sales events, the field looks long on numbers but short on likely winners.  Despite having to concede weight all round, Kool Kompany looks the one to beat after mixing it in top company this season. His portfolio includes two Group 2 successes: in the Robert Papin and the Railways Stakes, and he was narrowly defeated last time in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh.  Valley Of Fire takes an immediate hike in company after a professional winning debut here. He is promising and may outrun his price, but it is a tall order to expect him to beat Kool Kompany. Having finished third in the Super Sprint, Fast Act has previous in this sort of rough-and-tumble affair, but tackles six for the first time. Kool Kompany is hard to oppose, but official figures suggest he will be a short price.

2.30: A step up to six furlongs looks unlikely to prevent Tiggy Wiggy from following up on her Newbury Super Sprint victory when she blitzed her rivals with instant acceleration. For all that, this is a strong field. Anthem Alexander may struggle to confirm Queen Mary form with Tiggy Wiggy (when she beat her a neck) on 3lbs worse terms. Albany winner Cursory Glance did benefit from a frantic early pace at Royal Ascot but, taken at face value, the form reads well. These two look Tiggy Wiggy’s biggest dangers in a race that may be best watched.

3.05: Goodwood also-ran Bronze Angel is worth a mention in what is likely to be a fiercely-contested handicap. Under the circumstances, he ran a tremendous race at Goodwood three weeks ago. Badly drawn and steadied at the start, to the extent his chance had effectively gone in the first furlong, he picked up when switched down the straight to freewheel into seventh place. Not always the easiest horse to predict, he is obviously in fine form and with the breaks is worth considering.

3.40: In a week where stars are on parade, the presence of Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks spices up the day, but as she is impossible to oppose and is priced accordingly, she reduces the event to a watching race for punters. The ever-consistent Volume deserves to consolidate her position as her deputy by taking second.

4.20: Arabian Comet is a filly on the ascendency and can continue her progression in this listed event. After being narrowly beaten in a Group 3 at Goodwood last time, she has a major opportunity to return to her winning ways now.

4.55: Bragging is a filly that has sprung from the woodwork in recent months, looking extremely progressive when winning at Newmarket last time. A 10lbs weight rise may not stop her, but her wide draw over this seven just might.

 

YORK –WEDNESDAY AUGUST 20th:

1.55: Here we go, straight into this prestigious meeting with a sprint handicap and all the complexities that entails. As a rule these races are notoriously tricky to solve; even identifying the most likely and rightful winner – as was the case with Muthir in the Stewards’ Cup – is not always enough. For that reason I have come to the conclusion that, unless I am able to find a credible contender at a double-figure price, it is a case of pass… Now, despite a row of seemingly uninspiring duck eggs, last year’s winner Bogart makes some appeal for small stakes. Three pound lower than last year, well handicapped with Goldream (and as a consequence well –in with Move In time, and the preferred mount of Neil Callan), he shaped as if a revival was on the cards last time, and is selected at around the 16/1 mark.

2.30: A field of potential lines up for the Acomb, spearheaded by Jamaica and Basateen. Both won in eye-catching style last time, giving the impression they were crying out for a step up in grade. Of the two, Jamaica looked that little bit more professional, consequently he is preferred, although bookmakers are unlikely to be giving much away.

3.05: This excellent renewal of the Great Voltigeur ramps up the quality of a splendid card. Hot favourite Kingston Hill is still chasing his first win of the year, but this represents a stiff test. Snow Sky, Granddukeoftuscany and Hartnell are progressive enough to make things tough, but it is Postponed that may emerge as the biggest threat. Shaping at Ascot as if he was about to justify the potential of earlier runs in good class, he was a convincing winner last time and looks ready to take this leap into better company over this longer trip. His trainer’s patience can pay dividends and he is seen as the alternative to an obvious selection.

3.40: Not for the first time in its history, the Juddmonte International does not look like a betting heat. Although Mukhadram will pose a severe threat over his best trip and beats Australia on what may be a dubious line through Kingston Hill, the Derby winner’s class and killer kick is likely to be crucial.

4.20: In its own way this could prove as hard a nut to crack as the opening sprint. Cases can be made for several and although a selection in this may be tempting prudence, Knightly Escapade shaped well enough last time to suggest he can figure if getting the breaks.

4.55: Again, this is one of the puzzles of the day. Running off a penalty, it could be that we should be ‘expecting the fictional sidekick of James Bond, Felix Leiter’ – a cleverly named dual-winner by Monsieur Bond – to continue his current winning spell and the movie theme hopefully initiated by a true Hollywood great in the opener.

 

SATURDAY, AUGUST 15TH:

Newbury: 2.05: Belardo is taken to win what looks like a two-horse contest in the Washington Singer. Fourth to Ivawood in the July Stakes, he still has something to learn but finished off well under tender handling and should be better suited by conditions here. His form outstrips that of main market rival Hawksbury, who may have won well at Doncaster but who needs to step up on that in this company, particularly after an absence of two months.

2.40: On his very best form – form he has not shown since this time last year when a close second to Novellist – on ground he likes, Seismos would have a serious chance. There is some cause for optimism based on a reasonable effort last time. A double-figure price means he may be worth a small wager against some indifferent opposition.

3.50: Conditions have clearly swung in Gregorian’s favour and he should be too good for his rivals. His run at Deauville last time should not be taken literally and he can claim a back-to-back success in this much weaker contest.

SATURDAY AUGUST 9th:

12.55: Ascot: The Shergar Cup opens the day with a race time that is more consistent with a jumping card in the middle of December. Maybe the organisers know something! Goldream will be popular after his recent second to Muthmir at York, but the fact remains his wins have all come at six and, although not conclusive, up to now, that would appear his best trip. Being five furlong specialists, Swan Song and Move In Time make more appeal, but with Swan Song returning after a break since the Epsom Dash, a fit and capable Move In Time is preferred.

2.05: Grandorio lines up as the horse in form. More crucially, in an event where there are a few stamina doubts surrounding a couple of rivals, he is certain to get home. Although a winner over this trip (on the all-weather at Kempton) in-form Presburg gives the impression a testing experience at Ascot may not be ideal. Similar doubts can be levelled at Viewpoint, who has scored over this trip at Lingfield, but an overall profile that includes decent efforts in defeat at a mile-and-half gives hope that he may be able to stay this trip. If so, in a compressed handicap and with his regular partner Richard Hughes in the plate, his slipping handicap mark means he can make his presence felt.

3.15: With soft ground specialist Selkirk on the dam side and as a horse that has achieved his best form with ease in the ground, current conditions may not be ideal for Wrangler. His best form has been achieved with the word soft appearing in the going description, whereas having run well on fast ground at the Royal Meeting, course and distance winner Trip To Paris should be more at home on quicker ground. Apparently the vestiges of a hurricane are making their way toward the bottom part of the country from the Caribbean so, despite the current clement weather, that is something we cannot take for granted. As things stand, after an encouraging run last time in good company, Trip To Paris makes more appeal.

Newmarket: 3.05: Englishman is possibly not the most appropriate answer to a race with the title: Buy German, Race German, Win German Handicap. Lightly-raced since a winning debut at Newbury as a juvenile, he shaped with promise last time and may be about recover the winning thread from a reasonable mark.

3.35: Despite Henry Candy’s glowing reference about his charge,  Alonsoa, whom he nominated as a possible 1000 Guineas candidate, to this observer she won a weak listed last time at Sandown and, having obtained first run on Pack Together – who re-opposes now – may have been fortunate to prevail. Confirming that form will be no straightforward matter now. With Winters Moon, Albany sixth Peace And War and well-regarded Muraaqaba predictably stepping up in trip having failed to handle the pace at six last time, the opposition is strong for this Group 3.

Haydock: 1.50: After winning a York listed event and finishing third in the Albany, it is something of a surprise to see Patience Alexander appearing in a nursery. Clearly she is the horse to beat, but a mark of 101, although reasonable, means she is conceding lumps of weight to some unexposed rivals. None more so than the speedy Sandown winner Profitable, who stamped his authority on a minor event last time but looks as if he could be better than his current assessment suggests.

2.20: This is not easy – but then it is not designed to be. In search of fast ground, after taking the eye at Ascot behind Arab Spring, Elhaame has to be on any short list. A recent defector from an easier assignment at Ascot on account of the ground changing to soft, he remains of interest on this reroute.

2.55: One time Derby hope True Story returns to his optimum trip against older horses here and gets one last roll of the dice. Although useful, the older brigade is exposed as being no better than at this level. After showing a flash of the promise we saw earlier in the season at Newmarket when fifth in the Eclipse, True Story, who has always carried Keiren Fallon’s faith, gets his chance to step into the limelight once more.

3.25: The decision to drop Lightning Thunder in grade in this listed event seems sound; the trouble is she faces a couple of improving types in Token Of Love and Solar Magic, who may ensure her passage is not an easy one.

4.00: After a desperate run at Goodwood last week when he still closed on the wide outside when all chance was gone, Championship looks interesting from the same mark here. He is taken to outpoint Provenance, who benefitted from a masterly ride from Ryan Moore last time at Sandown. Clearly tricky, there will be no place for her theatrics against this opposition. Championship may come out best in a tricky race.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD – SATURDAY AUGUST 2nd:

2.40: Despite getting in a stew beforehand and pulling too hard in the race, Kings Fete eventually won last time at York like a horse capable of better still. Providing he is more tractable now, a 6lbs penalty is unlikely to stop him. He finished off last time as if he could have gone round again and looks a group horse in the making.

3.15: A slightly disappointing field lines up here for the Group 1, for which the French filly, Narniyn, lines up with the best credentials. It would appear to date her best form is with ease in the ground, so without rain it is hard to be confident.

3.50: Having scorched to victory at York last weekend, it is entirely possible, from a 5lbs penalty, Muthmir is still well treated and that he may make of mockery of this competitive sprint handicap. That said, as we all know, the best horse does not always win these events; from their viewpoint, justifying bookmakers’ obsession with them. With a clear run, Muthmir could be too good. Discussiontofollow is another that may have more to offer.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD – FRIDAY AUGUST 1st:

1.55: Although there was little between them when they last met at Newmarket when second and third to Cavalryman in the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket, Hillstar should be more effective on this firmer surface and does have a better overall profile than course winner Pether’s Moon. With Encke something of an unknown, sensibly the race looks between the two and Hillstar gets the nod.

2.30: Tried in the highest grade since scoring in the Free Handicap, Shifting Power should appreciate this drop in grade. After a narrow defeat by Charm Spirit in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat, and having finished second in the Irish Guineas and fourth in the English equivalent, Shifting Power deserves to get back on the winning trail. Being by Dutch Art, Lightning Thunder would probably be better with some cut underfoot, Windfast is unproven over this trip and Rapprochment faces a major step up in class. Hors De Combat and Bow Creek have something to find.

3.05: The first thing to say here is that, bearing in mind Velox benefitted from the services of an excellent 5lbs claimer at Sandown, he now effectively races from a stone higher mark. In such a hard and competitive handicap that requires significant improvement. He and Captain Cat are class acts but both may be inconvenienced by quick ground. Horsted Keynes really should have run better at Ascot last week but has the ability to figure on a surface he will like. Belgian Bill is another that failed to fire at Ascot and would be a danger if in the mood. Heavy Metal is turned out quickly after his shock Ascot win and is obviously in top form. All in all, this is tough and tricky.

3.40: Apparently in top form and with a preference for top of the ground, Extortionist, who is likely to race up with the trailblazers from his low draw, looks a worthy favourite. However, with a killer turn of foot and after two slightly unlucky runs when slowly away last time and badly drawn at Sandown,  G Force is worth another chance to break into the big time. He will need to put it all together in this company but has the ability to win if he does. Tropics ran a blinder last time in the July Cup but that was an out-of-kilter performance on a different surface to that which he faces today and one he cannot be relied upon to repeat.

The last three events are confusing. The inescapable conclusion is that the best opportunities exist in the first half of the card.

Note: Free tips and views here are offered on days with better quality racing and on the “More Free Tips” a Blog for Saturday’s TV races.

If you’d like a personal alert when the tipes are loaded text UPDATE to 07797 800 655. Please add your name so we can talk personally.

Warm Regards

Bob Rothman

Stacking The Odds in Your Favour

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SATURDAY DECEMBER 21st

ASCOT TIPS

3.35:

As you would expect for the prize-money, this is a tough handicap with plenty of possibilities.

Nicky Henderson fields two with real chances in the improvingRolling Star and Chatterbox.

Despite Barry Geraghty’s apparent preference for the former, Chatterbox shaped really well last time at Newbury after a well documented setback and could easily turn out to be the better of the two at these weights. Certainly his chance does not need arguing based on last season’s form. He is seen as holding the best chance of those at the top of the weights as improvement from Newbury is likely.

Flaxen Flare probably has a few pounds too many but should run a race.

Fellow Irish raider, City Slicker has to be respected but, with only limited hurdling experience, faces a stiff task against much better company than he has so far encountered.

Dell’ Arca is another dark horse that is raised 8lbs for his Greatwood win and could easily make his presence felt. Of those lurking at the foot of the handicap,

Totalize has been granted an opportunity by the handicapper with a mark of 131. Relative inexperience in such a cut and thrust handicap is something of a concern but he does have a chance at the weights (particularly with Flaxen Flare after a decent effort at last year’s Festival). He should be fit from a recent Flat outing and would surely not be making the journey south if less than match-fit or not carrying a modicum of stable confidence.

Flying in the face of common sense, Chatterbox may lift this, whilst a prominent showing is expected from the stoutly-bred Totalize.

LINGFIELD TIPS

2.35:

It seems fair to say Gatewood has not progressed since a highly encouraging return to action in this country at Doncaster in September.

He is capable of winning this but it is becoming a long time between drinks for him. Sure be thereabouts, he has most to fear from a possibly revitalised Tales Of Grimm, who got no run here last time. Once again the draw has not been kind to Tales Of Grimm, but with a reasonable slice of luck in running he rates a big danger.

CHELTENHAM 

FRIDAY DECEMBER 13th

(posted Thursday 5.30pm)

12.30:

All things being equal this looks like a two-horse race. Oscar Whisky made a satisfactory fencing debut here last month in a muddling race won by Tarquin Du Seuil.

As he receives 8lbs from his main rival, Newbury winner Wonderful Charm, it is tempting to believe that may make the difference.

These two are chalk and cheese. Wonderful Charm is more of a chasing type that may lack the class of Oscar Whisky, but there is the small matter of the fences threatening to even the contest out. With bookmakers sure to bet tight, there is little percentage in punters’ favour.

1.05:

It is a struggle to uncover an obviously well-handicapped runner here, although two that have raced in Ireland look to have possibilities. Both Friendly Society and Hit The Headlines have chasing experience and may be capable of better than we have seen.

2.10:

Theatre Guide looks a reasonable selection having put up such a giant effort in the Hennessy a fortnight ago. His claims are obvious and providing the run does not come too soon after his Newbury exertions, he is hard to get away from.

3.45:

The card ends as it starts with a novice event, this time seemingly resting between three candidates in previous winners and therefore penalised: Ballyalton, Doctor Harper and Garde La Victoire.

The last named was very impressive last time at Warwick when sauntering away from previous winner Gone Too Far. There seems no reason why we should not take that run literally, in which case Garde La Victoire is taken to shade what should be an informative event.

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SATURDAY

DECEMBER 7th

(posted Friday 5.45pm)

It seems we have made it to the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown without incident. Despite Russia’s best attempt at sabotage via a severe mid-week weather front sweeping in from Siberia, the worst is behind us – at least for now.

Staying with the Soviet theme, as always this is a good meeting full of quality and intrigue, but its twists and turns are possibly more suited to a John Le Carre Cold War novel.

1.50:

Taquin Du Seuil lays Arkle pretensions on the line in the Henry VIII Novice Chase.

A determined winner at Cheltenham last time from Oscar Whisky, he gets a chance to take this next step up the ladder.

Second in this event last year to Captain Conan, Hinterland is certainly useful but has not progressed beyond that standard and threatens to be vulnerable once again.

Grandouet, notably a hurdler, needs to improve his jumping to become competitive in this company, whilst well regarded Balder Succes is hard to assess and could be anything.

One mistake could change the complexion of this but, assuming Taquin Du Seuil jumps with the same aplomb as we saw at Cheltenham last time, he looks like the one to beat.

2.25:

After his latest run in a competitive Cheltenham event won by handicap blot Quick Jack, Deep Trouble looks poised to go one better in this listed handicap. He faces several rivals with progressive profiles but looks sure to run his race.

3.00:

The Tingle Creek should only concern Sire De Grugy and Captain Conan, both of whom have won over fences on this track. Talk of Somersby being able to mix it on these terms at this level has so far proved wide of the mark. The same is likely to be the case again. For some reason Sire De Grugy never looked at ease last time at Cheltenham, risking life and limb with some chancy leaps in the closing stages when second to an on-song Kid Cassidy.

From a stable in form, he has every chance but does have two lengths to find on Captain Conan on their running in the Arkle Trial run at Cheltenham this time last year. It promises to be a tight contest.

HENNESSY GOLD CUP DAY

NEWBURY – November 30th

1.50:

After four reasonable efforts over hurdles, Gassin Golf looks tempting in this Class 2 handicap.

It may not look an obvious race in which to break his duck, but as he receives the best part of two stone from many people’s idea of the winner, Gibb River, and sits at the foot of the handicap, this could be the day for an eagle shot.

Providing he does not bounce, from his last winning mark Gibb River has every chance, although it is never easy to lug big weights successfully in these events.

Other question marks pepper this event: Batonnier returns from two years on the sidelines; Punjabi is undeniably well-in if you delve far enough back; but at the age of ten, it is hard to be positive.

Don’t Be Late was an improver when last seen, but along with The Bear Trap – who looks the handicap plot – has yet to encounter opposition of this class. The list goes on, but if you cherry-pick the best of Gassin Golf’s form, a case can be constructed.

3.00:

The handicapper seems to hold sway in the Hennessy.

Class act Rocky Creek is reported to be in tip-top shape for this his debut of the year. A classy chaser with form to back up his claims, he is possibly the one to beat. He would be interesting if carrying a few pounds less.

Those of a similar profile – Houblon Des Obeaux and Lord Windermere – have the same mountain to scale.

Cloudy Too faces his stiffest test and also enters unknown territory as regards trip.

After such an absence, Invictus needs to wind back the clock but has a definite chance from a handicap perspective.

Our Father has a documented record of going best when fresh. Again, he seems to have plenty to do from his current mark.

In addition, late news on Friday night suggests Timmy Murphy (unexpectedly rushed to hospital before the last race after apparently feeling unwell) may not be fit to ride. Rocky Creek looks like the one to take aim at without appealing as a bet at the price.

PS Note from Bob.

A good friend who is a commission agent has also placed money on Super Duty at  20/1 for a stable contact. Obviously a very tough race and rather like the Grand National it’s one where you may be tempted to bet several decent priced horses EW for small stakes. Good luck.

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NEWBURY WINTER FESTIVAL

 

 DAY TWO (Friday).

(posted Thursday afternoon)

1.30:

Lightly raced Western Warhorse has a progressive look to him and is taken to justify being the sole selection on Friday’s card.

Having won at Chepstow before battling on up the Cheltenham hill behind Home Run last time when decent handicappers were behind, he looks handily weighted against this opposition.

Minella For Steak and, if able to translate improved Flat form to hurdles, Chiberta King represent two possible dangers in a minefield of a handicap, but Western Warhorse could be too good.

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THE HENNESSY HERITAGE FESTIVAL

 

Thursday Nov 28th,

Posted Wed Evening

The Racecourse Newbury – as it likes to call itself these days – stages Day 1 of its Hennessy Heritage Festival tomorrow – Thursday, November 28th. It’s quite a mouthful.

Most racing folk will simply be going to Newbury racecourse for the Hennessy meeting, but perhaps all this rebranding is something to do with the fact the racecourse is building over a thousand new homes on its property.

Clocking in with the first event at 12.25, Day One starts early. Nicky Henderson should open up proceedings when his Volnay De Thaix bids to supplement a facile Kempton win in the cut-up Bet 365 Class 3 novice.

Saddled with a Press Association price of 1/12 in most overnight papers, no one will be getting rich on the strength of this predictable piece of forecasting though. Volnay De Thaix has already scored twice in France and should make light of an 8lbs penalty.

I wish I could reveal a tasty bet on the card. With seven races you would think there ought to be one lurking somewhere, and, who knows, maybe there is… answers in an email please.

The closest I can come is Chatterbox in the Bet 365 Intermediate Hurdle (Listed Handicap) run at 3.15. To give it its alternative title, this race is registered as the Gerry Feilden Hurdle. I have a feeling Large Action is one of its past winners but don’t write in if I am mistaken. I am frequently mistaken about one thing or another these days.

So to get back to Chatterbox in the listed handicap: he looks an interesting prospect, not just in this, but in general.

He might be the sort his powerful stable will consider for the Betfair Hurdle (or, as Boylesports put it, if you’re really old the Schweppes Hurdle).

As for his immediate mission, he now returns to the track and trip responsible for his two wins to date. Having beaten My Tent Or Yours in December last year, he then routed a useful field of novices under a penalty in February. This was followed by a respectable fourth behind The New One in the Neptune at Cheltenham over a trip probably in excess of his best.

The 3lbs he receives from Puffin Billy could be crucial, meaning a bigger threat could be posed by the unexposed and lightly-raced Get Back In Line.

In all, from this quarter it’s a tentative start to the meeting. There are three days after all…

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SATURDAY’S RACING

 

NOVEMBER 23RD

(posted Friday lunchtime)

Despite Ascot, Haydock’s card, peppered with established and rising stars, takes centre stage.

12.45:

Four-year-old Far West is first in the spotlight. Caught out by the progressive Melodic Rendezvous in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton a fortnight ago, but ahead of market rival Rolling Star in the Triumph, he appears poised to take the Class 2 Intermediate Hurdle.

1.50:

This looks like a hot handicap. Unexposed dual-winner More Of That was impressive at Wetherby on what was his reappearance and only his second start. Raised 7lbs for that and a proven operator in the soft, he could easily be better than we have seen, but will need to be against some testing opposition.

Chief opponent could prove to be Zuider Zee, sharpened up after a decent first run of the season at Huntingdon eleven days ago. Once again, the ground will present no problem to this son of Sakhee.

3.00:

The big race of the day is the Grade 1 Betfair Chase – at this stage a mini-Gold Cup and certainly something of a dress rehearsal for Cheltenham.

Current Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth – who runs well when fresh – defends his chasing crown against last year’s winner of this, Silviniaco Conti, considered by many to have been unlucky at Cheltenham when coming down at the third-last. He was still travelling strongly at the time and a subsequent tame effort at Aintree, when he looked below par, should be ignored. With positive messages emanating from both camps, this rematch should prove informative.

After suffering his only defeat in the Jewson at the Festival, Dynaste completed a highly encouraging first season over the big obstacles with Grade 2 victory at Aintree. This represents a major test against top-class opposition; although he needs to find more now, he deserves a place in the line-up.

Long Run can apparently be forgiven his latest defeat in the Charlie Hall due to a bad scope, but it could be argued he comes up short at the highest level.

Cue Card is an unlikely winner. His record to date suggests 2m 4f is his best trip, so an extended 3m here looks unsuitable for a horse that may not be good enough in any case.

Tidal Bay and The Giant Bolster make up the numbers without appearing likely to trouble the judge.

Roi Du Mee does stay well and handles this sort of ground; although, as yet, gives no indication he will deal with opposition of this calibre.

So it’s perm any one from three: Bobs Worth, Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste with bookmakers apparently safely installed in the driving seat.

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SATURDAY NOVEMBER 16th

Horse Racing Tips

Lingfield Tips

1.25:

Thewandaofu’s claims for favouritism rest on her dubious fifth in the Rockfel to Al Thakhira – who admittedly was out of her depth at Santa Anita but still made no show there.

The Newmarket form looked flaky at the time so a hike from 77(which looked a reasonable mark for Thewandaofu based on all other efforts) to an elevation of 90 seems an overreaction.

With only a Kempton maiden win to her name and having been subsequently beaten at Southwell and Bath before finishing second off 73 in a nursery, her overall form suggests – unless we take the Newmarket form literally and believe she has suddenly made enormous improvement – she is only a mid-seventies filly.

That being the case Epic Voyage makes much more appeal. A solid second on his only outing to Postponed at Yarmouth (winner went on to chase home useful Oklahoma City in valuable sales race at Newmarket, whilst the third was a decent second next time and the fourth has won twice since),

Epic Voyage has a more promising profile and can take advantage of what appears to be an overrated filly.

2.35:

Prince Alzain has the credentials to win this and is taken to get the better of his main, and it is tempting to think, only serious rival – the revitalised Tales Of Grimm.

The latter should reverse recent form with Highland Knight on revised terms. Although it is likely to be tight, Prince Alzain, who is particularly effective on a synthetic surface, gets the call.

Cheltenham Tips

12.40:

The card opens with the first real test of the season for juvenile hurdlers. The line-up looks strong with Azza, Herod The Great, Guitar Pete and Royal Irish Hussar all having rattled off early victories.

The last named – an Aidan O’Brien reject – is a potentially classy recruit to hurdling whose jumping is not bullet-proof as yet, although it improved markedly after a clumsy first round effort at Market Rasen when last witnessed at Wetherby. Cheltenham will expose any weakness in that department but he is in good hands and remains an interesting prospect.

However, today’s opposition, which includes French-import and three-time winner Art Mauresque (representing last year’s winning combination) is another potential danger in a race probably best watched with an eye on the future.

1.15:

Experience could be the key factor here as, despite a 3lbs penalty, White Star Line, placed over fences at the Festival, faces several raw recruits. Le Bec and Shutthefrontdoor look no more than promising at this stage; whilst African Gold faces the larger obstacles for the first time.

White Star Line appears at his best over three miles – attempts beyond that trip have resulted in him being beaten a fair way. Possibly short on speed, having mixed it in decent company, his jumping makes him an attractive proposition against rivals that have plenty to prove.

1.50:

This extended three miles may assist Spring Heeled to pull out a little extra, meaning he could just be ahead of the handicapper right now.

A safe jumper who lines up here with a decent level of Irish form to his credit, he should go well. We do have to take his ability to stay this trip on trust, but he represents connections that know the time of day and the jockey booking adds confidence.

2.30:

As ever, the Paddy Power Chase presents punters with problems aplenty. It is possible to make cases for any number of the runners and the race does have a ‘whose turn is it today?’ look to it.

Without labouring the point, in a first time visor, Astracad makes some appeal from the right end of the handicap after a decent effort last time at Aintree.

Summary

Lingfield supplies the best betting opportunity of the day withEpic Voyage in the 1.25.

Prince Alzain has every chance in the 2.35.

From a betting perspective, Cheltenham is difficult enough.White Star Line is seen as a value alternative to some higher-profiled but less experienced rivals in the 1.15.

Spring Heeled and Astracad are no more than selections in their respective races.

 

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Bob: A few thoughts for tomorrow …

 

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CHELTENHAM TIPS

 

FRIDAY 15th November

We are off for the first of three days of the Paddy Power meeting.

Bizarrely, the best bet on Day One seems to come in the opening event at 1.05, where Badger Ale winner, Standing Ovation, turned out again under a 7lbs penalty, looks undeniably well-in.

He really ought to win this and given the nature of the race may even start a bigger price than he is entitled to.

His rider is capable enough and it is inescapable that Standing Ovation is receiving weight from opponents he should be conceding it to.

Following anticipated success it what looks like a soft target here, it would not be the biggest surprise were he to be supplemented for the Hennessy at the end of the month. Watch this space…

1.35:

Eastlake looks like a progressive type who continues to thrive. To a degree he is a lazy tip but they all count and he looks sure to play a big part in this having only been raised 5lbs for an Aintree win last month.

2.40:

Upswing is another with a similar early season profile to the preceding selections, although he faces a stiffer task. In a race full of potential improvers, Warden Hill is lightly-raced over timber and may be capable of consolidating a highly promising reappearance run at Kempton last time with a major effort in this company.

 

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Bob, thoughts and selections for tomorrow, Cheers, Spy

 

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 9TH

(posted Friday afternoon)

Doncaster Horse Racing Tips

12.40:

Penny Drops stands out after a promising debut at Goodwood, which was followed by an improved effort in a listed event at Newmarket last week. There she was arguably unlucky not to have nearly won when a squeezed-up second to Cape Factor. She should be too good now returned to an ordinary maiden.

1.15:

A winner over 6f in soft, identical conditions should suit Black Caesar who is now dropped 2lb after his latest run over 7f when leaving the impression he failed to get home. As the chosen representative from his powerful stable that fielded a strong five-day entry, he lines up with every chance.

However, in a race that may only concern a few runners, Penina looks potentially well-treated after what was admittedly a flattering fourth to easy winner Aeolus last time.

However, she failed to obtain the clearest of runs (would not have troubled the winner) and the form is bolstered by the second horse, the twice-subsequently scoring Musical Comedy, who was only half-a-length ahead of the filly.

Penina could easily capitalise from a lowly mark of 66 and along with Black Caesar, these look like the two contenders to concentrate on.

1.50:

Favourite Treat is an unexposed contender. After a good effort last time against older horses he looks on an upward curve.

He returns to soft/heavy ground – the surface he scored on when dotting up in a Chepstow maiden by a wide margin. He is potentially well-treated against the usual suspects.

These exclude Magistral who lines up with a similar profile to the selection. Turned out quickly after a decent effort at Newmarket last week, he is clearly in good heart and interesting, but this drop back to 7f may not be ideal.

2.25:

Jack Dexter is the obvious one to beat here but in-form Highland Colori, last year’s winner Eton Rifles and Hallelujah are three obvious dangers along with others likely to pose problems.

3.35:

Conduct was well-backed when a staying on third at York over 1m 2f last time and will surely appreciate this step up to 1m 4f. Representing a stable in fine end-of-season form, and from the same mark as last time, after only two runs this season he lines up fresher than most and is hard to get away from.

Conclusion:

12.40: Penny Drops ought to win but will be short and should only be considered in those miracle multiple bets. It may not be significant, but she was starting to go in her coat last week.

1.15: Penina looks temptingly treated by the assessor. A small bet is advised with a saver on Black Caesar.

1.50: Favourite Treat could be going places and is the call in this hard handicap.

3.35: Conduct is another that looks to hold a clear-cut chance in a competitive event.

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SATURDAY NOVEMBER 2ND

(posted 5.10pm Friday afternoon)

Newmarket Tips and analysis

1.10:

Having beaten yesterday’s maiden winner Idder by over five lengths at Nottingham last time, Montaly looks a serious opponent to likely odds-on shot Hartnell in the listed contest over ten furlongs. After only two runs the stoutly-bred, Montaly is open to improvement.

This trip in soft ground threatens to provide a slog for two-year-olds but the market leaders are bred for it and to an extent have already demonstrated an ability to stay well. By Authorized, who has had a mixed season, Hartnell won on heavy ground last time over a mile and is clearly the one to aim at.

A proven ability to handle soft ground could be crucial on a day when the ground is likely to be as yielding as it gets at Newmarket.

1.45:

After a clear-cut victory at Leicester on debut, Surcingle, lines up in the listed event as a filly loaded with promise.

However, these opponents represent a considerable rise in quality to those she encountered last time. A tall filly by Empire Maker (often an influence for a soft ground preference), she stayed the trip of a mile well on debut and has an action that suggests easy ground will suit. At this juncture, speed does not seem to be her biggest asset.

Majeyda has to overcome a 3lbs penalty and comes into this on the back of form exposed as below Group standard.

Surcingle could be good enough to take this hike in grade in her stride, but Rosehill Artist may represent value. Although vulnerable to an improver, she was not disgraced when failing to concede 4lbs to Lady Lara in a similar event at Newbury and we know the ground and trip presents no problem.

2.55:

Nabucco returned to action last time to win a heavy-ground handicap at Salisbury early in October and may be fresher than most in this apparently weak listed race.

Wetherby Tips and analysis

3.00:

Over at Wetherby, At Fishers Cross capped a great season with spring wins at Cheltenham and Aintree and should extend his winning sequence to seven in the 3.00.

3.35:

In the Charlie Hall at 3.35, Unioniste lines up with a similar profile to last year’s winner from the same stable, Silviniaco Conti. Receiving 4lbs from Long Run and a winner this time last year at Aintree, this may be the time to catch him in top form.

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LAST ROUND UP AT NEWMARKET

Friday Nov 1st

12.30

It’s an early start at Headquarters – with the first race scheduled for 12.30 – more in keeping with a fixture at Exeter! For the present, such a venue is a long way away for contenders in the opening maiden.

Racing on soft ground, one that should cope with conditions is Authenticity. A half-brother to Professor and by Authorized out of a Selkirk mare, he is bred to water ski. Given his connections and against representatives from major yards, he is likely to be a big price; however, if he has any ability at all he may attract a smidgen of support.

There is not a lot to go on here: Sea Defence and Think Ahead only achieved passable form on their respective debuts, whilst shot in the dark Authenticity apart, Certificate, from the in-form Roger Varian stable, makes most appeal of the newcomers.

1.00:

Stetchworth should be hard to beat here having finished third to Pretzel and Mutakayyef in what looked a reasonable maiden at the last meeting.

This event received a tenuous shot in the arm through Gannicus (about four lengths behind Stetchworth at Newmarket) as he had earlier been beaten four lengths by Friday’s Newbury winner, Strait Run. Stetchworth should know more now and sets a good standard.

Zee Zeely and Idder both posted promise on their debuts but take on more now.

1.30:

This has the look of a weak end of season handicap. Squire Osbaldeston is only raised 3lbs for his belated Lingfield win after promise as a juvenile and in the spring. He should prove too good from a mark of 85.

2.00:

Third to the smart Night Of Thunder on debut at Goodwood in the soft when not getting a straightforward passage, Penny Drops is taken to spring a surprise in this listed event. She is open to plenty of improvement against rivals that do not exactly suggest we should run for cover. She probably has most to fear from Expect and Cape Factor.

2.30:

Expert might have been the selection here but for a poor effort last time in similar ground at Salisbury. He is still capable of winning this on his best form; the question being, after a long and hard season – and on this ground – whether he will reproduce it. With Mar Mar also failing to convince, a turn-up may be on the cards.

1.00: Stetchworth looks solid.

1.30: Squire Osbaldeston looks a short-priced winner and one for the multiple bets.

2.00: Penny Drops may spring a surprise.

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FLYING THE FLAG

 

Halloween may mean pumpkins, trick-or-treat and scary outfits for some; for others, the last week of October, first in November, means the Breeders’ Cup.

Six thousand miles away from the subsiding rain and winds of Great Britain, somewhere down Orange Highway and in the shadow of the Blue Mountains, they will race round Santa Anita this weekend for the richest collective horseracing purse on the planet.

Every year we Europeans try our luck and, to be fair, during our attempts, although peppered with a harsh helping of heartache, we have had some success.

However, it takes a special horse to win in the USA. What with the travelling, the change of climate and the cut-throat conditions out on the racetrack, only the hardiest take their shots. Those that bring home the biggest prizes are not always the most obvious, nor are they necessarily the best.

From a betting point of view, we often fail to recognise the enormity of the task faced by a traveller. This can be a costly error. It is also worth bearing in mind that the odds this side of the Pond are not always replicated in the US.

We start the two-day meeting with a strong challenge on Friday in the Juvenile Turf over a mile.

Dewhurst third Outstrip appears to have solid credentials, as does Giovanni Boldini – who was third to Toormore in the Group 1 National Stakes and winner of his other two starts, both on Polytrack.

By American stallion War Front – who is making a big impact just now in the UK and Ireland – his chance is further enhanced if, as seems likely according to jockey bookings, he is rated superior to his tough stablemate Wilshire Boulevard.

Even so, the last named was fourth in the Group 1 Prix Jean- Luc Lagardere on Arc day on soft ground and reverts to a more suitable surface now. Wilshire Boulevard is the sort of horse to give it a shot here and he could go well.

Shamson completes the European challenge but has plenty to find. The betting suggests the home-team will struggle – always a dangerous assumption. Despite wide draws, Bashart and Poker Player are powerful threats.

On the face of it, we field one of the strongest teams possible in the fillies’ equivalent.

Cheveley Park winner Vorda – also winner of the Robert Papin and whose only defeat came in the Prix Morny when second to the monster that is No Nay Never – was impressive at Newmarket and is already talked of as next year’s 1,000 Guineas winner. That is of course possible, although a venture to California en route is not usually the ideal preparation. There is also a major stamina question for her to answer. No prisoners will be taken in this field, which will ruthlessly expose any chinks in her armour. She will not win this if she only gets seven-and-a-half furlongs!

There are no stamina doubts about Fillies’ Mile winner Chriselliam but, despite the positivity of her connections after the event, that Newmarket win remains something of a head scratcher for form analysts.

Al Thakhira looked impressive enough when running away with the Rockfel but there has to be a doubt about that form.

Once again we ignore the Americans at our peril: Kitten Koboodle and the wide-drawn My Conquestadory could provide most resistance, but they also have chances with Testa Rossi and Sky Painter.

On Saturday, improving Dank is rightly perceived as having a solid and serious chance in the Filly and Mares event on turf. It would be foolish to counter her claim but 2/1 – or even 7/4 in places – about a filly on a mission a quarter of a world away does assume plenty.

It is not difficult to construct a case for The Fugue in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. After a ‘soft’ season, she routed top class colts in the Irish Champion Stakes and looks to be primed to run the race of her life now in conditions guaranteed to suit. Notwithstanding current odds she faces a tough task though, as she takes on some seasoned American bulwarks.

Despite a name implying otherwise, Big Blue Kitten – a horse and not a mare – will not be distracted by a saucer of milk and a tin of Felix. Along with Point Of Entry (to name just two), they spearhead a potent and beefy threat.

In the Mile, Olympic Glory’s participation on fast ground seems like a decision conjured in the boiler room of doom. What are connections thinking here? All his best form is unquestionably when there is dig in the ground. A revelation when squelching through the Ascot slop in the QEII, conditions in California could not be more different, or, on all known form, more alien.

There is tremendous home confidence behind Wise Dan, whilst Silver Max is an able deputy should the bullets fired by the favourite fall wide.

At around half past midnight our time, we reach the showpiece race – The Classic, run for a colossal purse of over $2.5 million on dirt. This is not a race they tend to give away!

Declaration Of War – an American-bred by War Front – may be bred for the job but has yet to race on this surface.

Game On Dude, last year’s winner Fort Larned, and Mucho Man may not be as classy but have the home advantage.

As a meeting, this is great stuff, but it rarely goes as planned for would-be marauders – for whom even one winner is a major achievement. Taking America by storm is as hard now as it was back in 1775.

It is generally acknowledged that Dank, Vorda and The Fugue represent the best chances for the Europeans; but doubts persist, leading me to believe it is a night to watch rather than one in which to bet.

Don’t forget the time of year… Watch out for Freddy Krueger!

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SATURDAY OCTOBER 26TH

(posted Friday 2.30pm)

Doncaster Racing Tips and Views

2.05:

With a highly promising profile, Aeolus looks ready for this step up in grade having improved markedly with every run. An impressive specimen, he may have more to offer but faces serious opposition in the penalised Stubbs and the impressive Goodwood winner Night Of Thunder, who has already displayed an ability to handle soft ground. Perm any one from three…

Result

Night of Thunder  1st 5/2 -> 6/4

Aeolus 2nd 100/30

3.15:

As always the sprint handicap is tough. With only limited mileage on the clock, Take Cover looks primed to run a big race despite a 7lbs hike for his latest York success. Unusually for an offspring of Singspiel, it could be argued this drop back to five furlongs has brought about the best in him. He is closely weighted with Steps (may have the best of the draw) and Kyleakin Lass.

A tenuous line through Ancient Cross on York running last time gives Valbchek a credible chance, particularly as he ran out of room at a crucial stage that day and would have finished closer with a clear passage.

Knotty handicaps such as this provide plenty of excuses in advance, but should everything fall right, Valbchek is probably capable of winning this and may be worth chancing at double-figure odds.

3.50:

So we arrive at the last Group 1 of the season – the Racing Post Trophy.

Already spoken of as a possible classic contender, Kingston Hilllooks the form horse after an impressive win at Newmarket last time from Oklahoma City.

A form line through Pupil gives him the clear edge over Pinzolo and he also has the beating of Altruistic through Oklahoma City. He stays this trip well and has a good turn of foot – something he has always demonstrated in his work at home with the likes of the speedy Mishar.

Responsible for Oklahoma City, Aidan O’Brien has something of a lead into the worth of the Newmarket form and his Century looks likely to provide the biggest danger.

Century burst through in the closing stages of his Curragh maiden to win in emphatic style, showing plenty of acceleration and looking a classy prospect. A good-actioned son of Montjeu, soft ground may not be ideal but he is a colt of undoubted promise. It would be dangerous to rule him out of calculations.

This leaves us with the conundrum often faced in contests such as this – whether to latch on to the solid form or take a flyer with a horse of immense promise.

Newbury Racing Tips and Views

2.20:

Like Century in the Racing Post, Galiway lines up here with just a highly promising maiden win to his name, having taken a newcomers’ event at St Cloud in expected manner. Given his connections, he has to be respected but faces a tougher task now against proven rivals.

Form pick, Morning Post may struggle over this trip in what threatens to be heavy ground.

Piping Rock will handle conditions but has something to find; whereas, Trading Profit was not beaten far in a bunch finish for the Mill Reef here when behind Supplicant and has solid each-way claims.

result

Piping Rock 1st 4/1 -> 3/1

Galiway 2nd 5/2

2.55:

A son of Authorized, soft ground seems to favour the late-bloomer Nichols Canyon who was impressive over 1m 6f last time in similar conditions at Ascot.

This is tougher, but if it turns into a slog he will get home when some of his rivals may be floundering. So long as all eight intended runners turn up, he is seen as an each-way alternative to likely favourite – the penalised Prince Bishop.

With Masterstroke having shown nothing since joining Godolphin, and Sugar Boy having tailed-off last time, this is a winnable contest for an in-form Nichols Canyon.

result

Nichols Canyon 2nd

This is not a day for punters to dip too deeply into their pockets. As things stand, each-way interest in Valbchek, Trading Profitand Nichols Canyon (as long as all eight run) is advised.

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FRIDAY OCTOBER 25TH

(posted Thursday Afternoon)

Newbury Racing Tips and Views

1.30:

It is possible Strait Run’s seventh in a Salisbury maiden is better than it looks at first glance. The second won at Lingfield next time, whilst the tenth home was only beaten six lengths by Pretzel at Newmarket on Wednesday.

Of the unraced contingent, the two that stand out are the Galileo colt Impulsive Moment and the New Approach and Godolphin representative, Flight Officer, both of whom have impeccable pedigrees, meaning they could easily be a class apart.

Discussed in notebook

Straight Run Won

Flight officer 2nd

2.00:

Despite a reasonable debut here last month when second to Cape Wrath, Dark Leopard will have to buck a negative trend to win as that race is not working out.

Result Dark Leopard beaten

Cape Wrath made little impact at Newmarket on Wednesday and other runners from that maiden have been beaten a long way on subsequent engagements.

Therefore, it is hard to escape the conclusion (formed at the time) that the race was moderate.

Master Of Suspense has been absent since June, whilst Potentate’s two seconds to date indicate he is capable of winning a maiden without being a good thing to do so.

Of the newcomers, Dutchartcollector – a gelding by Dutch Art out of a Pivotal mare – looks guaranteed to handle soft ground.

2.30:

Carthage’s second at Goodwood sets a beatable standard. The two debutants he has most to fear from appear to be the stoutly-bred Jefferson City and the Derby entrant Observational, both of whom could prove to be serious dangers.

3.35:

Kalispell looks the interesting contender here after a fair comeback run at Sandown after nearly a year in the wilderness. That was her first run since finishing second to The Lark at Doncaster this time last year – a run that, from the lowly mark of 75, would give this Singspiel filly excellent claims today.

Noted in Notebook

Kalispell won very easily 8/1

5.10:

Whatever else happens on the day, Blessington looks primed to take this sprint handicap. He is open to plenty of improvement after an excellent comeback run in a competitive Ascot handicap three weeks ago when a fast-finishing second to Intibaah on a day when little came from off the pace. A 3lbs rise seems fair; in addition, this extra half a furlong should suit, making it one of many components that should enable him to go one better now.

5.10: BLESSINGTON looks the best of the day, with the remainder of the comments only advanced as pointers at this stage.

Result

Ran too bad to be true. Discussed in Notebook

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Wednesday 23 Oct

(posted Tuesday afternoon)

RIGHT AS RAIN…

You may have noticed it has been raining rather a lot of late. At least it should prevent the water companies from hiking their prices – then again, maybe not – perhaps it is the wrong sort of rain: wet as opposed to not quite so wet.

Come to think of it, isn’t electricity generated in part by water? Maybe those nice executives responsible for allowing us access to the power required to turn on lights, watch our televisions and have hot water and heating, will take pity and reduce prices for a change. Apparently it takes a lot of water to make beer – maybe a pint of bitter will cost a few pence less in the run-up to Christmas. If not, well, paying top dollar for beer is fair enough – after all, it’s beer when all is said and done!

Who am I kidding? Expecting charity from energy suppliers (I am including beer manufacturers here – you get energy of sorts from beer!) is like expecting bookmakers to show generosity at Newmarket tomorrow.

They already have plenty on their side. With half the card consisting of expensive well-bred debutants (at present you buy a small Hebridean island with their joint worth), anything could happen to even the strongly-fancied contenders.

There is a chink of light on the card, but that light could soon become extinguished by either the unknown and largely unfancied runner in the ‘black cap’, or ground conditions these juveniles have not yet experienced.

It doesn’t look like a day that will take care of the latest brown envelope.

On the positive side, we can at least form some sort of opinion in the 3.40, where all the participants have form.

Best of it is represented by Sudden Wonder,  who after two runs at Newmarket, behind smart stablemates Outstrip on debut, and later Pinzolo – both of whom have since won in better company – gets his turn in the spotlight.

This form looks solid from all directions and he is receiving 5lbs from Cape Wraith, who should cope with the ground and the step up in trip, but whose win at Newbury came in a distinctly moderate affair. There is of course a drawback; after all, it wouldn’t be a horserace unless there was more than an element of a doubt now would it?

For a start, we haven’t seen Sudden Wonder since mid-August and, being by New Approach, we have to speculate about his ability to handle ground this soft. Do you ever feel events are programmed to conspire against you?

result

Sudden Wonder won

Cape Wraith 3rd

Half-an-hour later, Munjaz, just behind Sudden Wonder on his debut in August, sets the standard in another maiden.

That run looks in advance of what was no more than a promising debut from Touch The Sky when he finished fourth to Master The World in September.

Again, just to add an element of trickery, Munjaz has been on the sidelines for longer than ideal (68 days).

Godolphin are chucking plenty of darts at the board just now, this time the blue arrow is carried by a Sea The Stars gelding, Moontime.

Best of the unraced would appear to be Munjaz’s stable companion, Danjeu, a Montjeu colt that lines up with something of a reputation.

Result

Moontime won 14/1

Munjaz 2nd 7/4 -> 5/4 (Nose)

The sleight of hand continues at Kempton where the first division of the maiden at 6.50 looks inordinately strong by the track’s normally modest standards. There are no ground worries on the synthetic surface of course.

What appears to be a solid contender in once-raced Moonfaarid lines up as the one to beat after having finished second to Ghazi at Newmarket in August, with reasonable benchmark Pool House in third and subsequent dual winner Outback Traveller in fourth. That form threatens to make him hard to beat, especially from a plum draw. The recurrent theme here seems to be the month of August. Once again Moonfaarid has either been on his holidays or has had a setback of some description.

However, you still have to perm any one of six well-bred newcomers to prove troublesome: The Street Cry Godolphin representative Cry Joy, the flashy American-bred Marzocco, the Sea The Stars colt Moontown, and Warrior Of Light. From powerful stables, Mutamakkin and Steve Rogers deserve respect, but on the face of it appear more stoutly-bred and may be more effective next season.

Result

Marzocco won 7/1

Moonfarid 3rd Evs

There is a whisper for D’Avignon in the second division – who faces an all-together easier assignment than participants half-an-hour earlier.

This time the wild card is the draw. Of eleven runners, D’Avignon is drawn – well, you guessed it didn’t you – widest of all in eleven.

As I write I see the 2.20 at Yarmouth has been won by a 33/1 shot with a 100/1 chance in third.

Good game isn’t it!

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CHAMPIONS’ DAY

(Saturday 19th Oct)

1.45:

Somehow, Estimate escapes a Group 1 penalty in this Group 3 event that, despite being at the lowest end of the group scale still features a strong line-up. Estimate’s chance and her record at Ascot speaks for itself and she threatens to be hard to beat.

The consistent Ahzeemah should again be on the premises at this level. New kid on the staying block, Eye Of The Storm could be interesting. A third to Trading Leather in the Autumn Stakes last year and a narrow defeat by Sugar Boy in the Classic Trail at Sandown reads well enough but he has looked no more than useful at listed level since. A line through Missunited – whom he has met twice – suggests he is not especially progressive and this represents a tougher task than encountered of late.

Estimate is the filly to beat without making any great betting appeal.

2.20:

Like Estimate in the preceding race, last year’s winner, Maarek is the obvious one here back to six furlongs and on his favoured ground. A tough contender when things are right, he will be hard to beat against largely vulnerable opponents.

Jack Dexter looks solid enough after a giant effort in the Ayr Gold Cup and an earlier fourth in the King’s Stand over an inadequate five furlongs at the Royal Meeting.

On the other hand, Viztoria may struggle against sprinters now she is surprisingly brought back to six furlongs. This will also be her third outing in just over a month, having made little show at Longchamp a fortnight ago.

Slade Power has a chance, whereas only one other horse – drastically overpriced at that – seems in this sort of league. Balmont Mast is a tough globetrotter that has made his mark in Group 1 events in Singapore and Dubai and should not be underestimated. Apparently versatile as regards ground (being an American-bred there is always a suspicion soft may be against him but he has won on it), he arrives here in good form having won last Saturday at the Curragh and looks primed to outrun a double-figure price.

2.55:

A race that includes a German Group 1 winner in Nymphea, recent Prix De L’Opera winner Dalkala, the first and third from the Oaks in Talent and The Lark, one-time Guineas favourite Hot Snap, improving Waila and Belle De Crecy and South African mare Igugu has to be considered a strong one.

Dalkala is in great form and handles the soft, but is arguably best at ten furlongs. She may find a slog in this ground stretching her stamina in this company.

We know Talent stays well although the ground is something of an unknown; whereas The Lark will be ideally suited by ground conditions.

If someone could convince me Dalkala will be as effective over this trip as she was at Longchamp two weeks ago over ten furlongs, I could be tempted. As it is, I am inclined to watch this one.

3.30:

This year’s QEII should only concern the front four in the betting. There has to be a slight question mark hanging over Dawn Approach. On soft ground, if he pulls as he has done in the past, he will surely set the race up for a finisher. In the belief we have seen the best of him I am prepared to look elsewhere.

In top form and back to an ideal trip, Maxios fits the bill having slammed Olympic Glory last time at Longchamp.

It is doubtful whether this ground will bring out the best in Soft Falling Rain.

Gordon Lord Byron does not look up to winning over a mile at this level, nor does mud-loving Top Notch Tonto.

A raft of doubt surrounds Kingsbarns.

That leaves us with Olympic Glory who only has a little to find with Dawn Approach on the latter’s best form and who handles the ground. He lines up as something of an afterthought (Toronado was the intended representative of owner and trainer but was ruled out on this ground); although a reproduction of his fast-finishing second to Moonlight Cloud in the Jacques Le Marios when Intello, Declaration Of War and an intractable Dawn Approach were behind, would make him a dangerous candidate. It seems he ran below par last time but on balance, Maxios seems the safest option. Olympic Glory may follow him home.

4.05:

So we move on to the Champion Stakes, dominated in the betting by a seven-year-old in Cirrus Des Aigles and a five-year-old in Farhh.

Both have had their setbacks this season and the fact they monopolise the front end of the market tells its own story about this year’s Classic crop.

Cirrus Des Aigles writes his own script and no one will begrudge him another success in this event.

Of the rest, Derby winner Ruler Of The World is hard to fancy, whilst Mukhadram has claims but it will be a sub-standard Champion if he wins.

For those in search of value, Morandi will relish the ground and although his form with Intello leaves him with something to find, such improvement of this ground cannot be ruled out.

Another that might belie his odds is Hillstar. Possibly better at 1m 4f, this ground will bring his undoubted stamina into play and it would be a mistake to judge him solely on his run on the firm in the Juddmonte.

The Day’s BETS:

Despite the clear claims of Estimate, Maarek and Cirrus Des Aigles, it may pay to overlook the obvious. MAXIOS is seen as the best alternative in the 3.30.

At prices that look too big, value-seekers might like to considerBalmont Mast and Morandi in their respective events.

FRIDAY OCTOBER 18TH

Something for the weekend Sir?

It looks like we are back in the game.

HAYDOCK RACING

Easy ground calls for caution here but the card is interesting enough, presenting a couple of possibilities:

2.20: The form horse in this is undeniably Newmarket Warrior, who after five attempts is nevertheless making a meal of winning. The right man is aboard now to rectify that record and he has every chance of opening his account.

However, backing horses with his profile is not always the best move and although not a recommendation, it is highly likely we can expect an improved showing from Battersea, a well thought of son of Galileo. Although too green to do himself justice at Newmarket on debut, he looks the part and may know more now. Essentially a race to watch.

2.55: Desert Ace represents a smidgen of value in this nursery after finishing third in the heavy at Salisbury last time to subsequent Middle Park third Justice Day, with talented but unreliable Figure Of Speech back in fourth. Back to the minimum trip and partnered by a talented apprentice that effectively reduces his mark to 80, he looks worth chancing.

4.05: Baarez looks all set to be the rage in this after throwing away a Newmarket maiden won by Mitrad last month.

On the face of it, the charitable among us accredited his antics to greenness, but the fitting of a hood today hints that connections may suspect temperament may be creeping in.

Be that may, at the price he makes little appeal and, being by Hard Spun, is not an obvious candidate to handle soft ground, despite the Monsun line on the distaff side.

Whatever Baarez’s fate, Tall Ship – six lengths behind him at Newmarket and never realistically put in the contest – can be expected to finish much closer now.

CHELTENHAM RACING: Well, it had to happen sooner or later – so here it is. Stash away the light summer suits, dig out the Barbour.

Really do I have to?

Sure do if you want to stay in the game son!

Here goes then:

2.00: Saint Roque should relish this step up in trip and should therefore have a big chance against his most obvious danger – Rum And Butter.

3.15: I would prefer to pass on this if that’s okay with you. However, with Emma Lavelle’s horses in such sparkling form (so I am told), despite top weight, Captain Sunshine has to be respected.

4.25: With some interesting contenders lining up, without information this may not be a race for heavy involvement.

However, Germany Calling should be an interesting recruit to timber and is worth watching both in the betting and in running. Whatever they say about the pretenders, Lac Fontana should be hard to beat after a decent run here in the Triumph Hurdle last season, when he was also close enough to useful types in Forgotten Voice at Kempton and Chatterbox at Newbury.  Whatever happens later in the season, this promises to be his day.

5.30: It is too early to draw a line through the well regarded Four Too who was cantering last Saturday at Chepstow only to fade out of contention in the time it took a lamb to shake its tail. Apparently he needed the run and the fact he is turned out again so quickly and with a tongue tie indicates his powerful stable expect a better showing here.

There are two suggestions on the day:

Desert Ace 2.55 Haydock

Lac Fontana  4.25 Cheltenham.

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 Update Saturday Evening

Darwin and  AFONSO DE SOUSA  were non runners due to the ground change

WAR COMMAND WON

PALLASATOR placed at 8/1 in Cesarewitch (Ladbrokes, Bet365 , sky, Tote, Betfred Boyle, Stan James, Paddy Power all paid 5 places)

100% Record Spy. Well done!

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SATURDAY OCTOBER 12th

(posted Friday afternoon)

We may be in the closing stages of the current Flat season, but the fat lady is not bursting into song just yet. A great day’s racing is in prospect at Newmarket this Saturday – with only one handicap [Cesarewitch] featured on a diamond-studded card.

The Challenge Stakes (Group 2) is first up – a race that promises to supply one of several Irish-trained winners on the day when DARWIN lines up with excellent claims, particularly on the assumption that a return to seven furlongs will suit. He beat Gordon Lord Byron over this trip at the Curragh in July and was a useful juvenile in the US last year. A typical American-bred, he seems best on fast ground, so only a change in the going description threatens to jeopardise his chance. At the time of writing, everything seems in place for a major run.

2.35: The first of two Group 1s for the juveniles, the Middle Park is a prize that again may be gobbled up by the Irish, who field the front two in the market.

Great White Eagle is a good-looking son of Elusive Quality with a big reputation that needs to step up on his Group 3 win at the Curragh last time. He did take time to master his rivals, eventually finishing nicely on top and winning with plenty in hand. He has earned his place in this stronger field; however, it is entirely possible this trip is a minimum for him.

Sudirman, winner of the Group 2 Railways Stakes and the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes – where he beat a ring-rusty War Command – went on to meet his match in Toormore in the Group 1 National Stakes over seven furlongs next time. A return to six is likely to be in his favour now and he lines up boasting the best form.

Hot Streak was a flashy winner of the Group 2 Cornwallis at Ascot last week although, unlike several rivals, was perfectly positioned to strike throughout the race. The form is only ordinary (third Kickboxer well beaten in the nursery at York on Friday) and threatens to be misleading at this level.

Astaire can come out best of the home team, but the inescapable conclusion here is that one of the Irish will prevail. Those backing Great White Eagle row in with potential over solidity in the shape of form horse – at least going into the race – Sudirman.

3.10: A field of six for the Dewhurst is a bit of a disappointment but War Command and Outstrip represent two powerful stables and come to the table with serious claims.

Coventry Stakes winner War Command was a little below-par when reappearing next time at the Curragh (beaten by Sudirman over six), but made no mistake shifted up to seven next time, looking an entirely different proposition. He comfortably asserted his authority in a Group 2 at the Curragh last time with a killer kick of speed and looks top class over this trip. He will be hard to beat.

Outstrip lines up as the biggest and only danger in what appears a two-horse contest. War Command gets a confident nod.

3.50: Built like a proverbial tank, Pallasator looks capable of humping a big weight to mean effect here. He should overturn Haydock form with Platinum from the same mark. Lightly raced (just the one run this year) he has the look of a horse targeted at this end-of-season prize from his shrewd handler.

Tiger Cliff faces a 6lbs rise for his Ebor win, but, to an extent, he has already landed the big race and more is required from top weight.

Smoky Hill is apparently fancied on the back of his fourth to Domeside in the Group 3 Prix Gladiateur last month. Literal translation of that run means he is potentially well treated from his present mark of 91. The possible chink in his armour is the trip, as the Gladiateur is over 1m 7f. He has to prove he stays this extra three furlongs, which is not a given on breeding.

Pallasator may be the safest option.

4.25: Lightning Thunder presented a persistent challenge to the highly regarded Miss France in the Oh So Sharp last time and sets the standard for this. She is a likeable and game filly that has progressed with each run so far. Lustrous, fourth in the May Hill on only her second outing, improved from her Salisbury debut at Doncaster and any further advancement would mean she is a big danger.

4.55: Here we have what promises to be another informative juvenile event with God Willing, Kingston Hill and Mount Logan representing the progressive contingent, whilst Oklahoma City and Pupil line up with undeniable cast-iron form claims. Untangling the likely outcome seems too knotty at present.

5.25: The Group 3 Darley Stakes sets the seal on the day. Plenty line up, although, realistically, very few warrant serious consideration.

Once again, the O’Brien camp fields the one to beat in Afonso De Sousa – a three-year-old that has mixed it with some big names in Ireland. This trip should bring out the best in him.

Kassiano ran like a non-stayer at Newbury in soft ground last time and it would be unwise to dismiss his chance back over a more suitable trip and on better ground.

York offers the hurly burly of tight competitive handicaps – most of which look too hard from a punting perspective. The exception could be the 2.55 – another hot juvenile contest.

Mushir comes here in preference to the Middle Park after a last-gasp debut win at Kempton consolidated a tall home reputation.

Of similar profile is Outer Space, who shaped as if this six furlongs would suit when finishing strongly last Saturday to snatch second in a below standard Cornwallis. That was a much-improved effort that was not a surprise judging by the betting, meaning he could easily win this. He does face serious opposition though.

Betting opportunities on the day are courtesy of Mr Aidan O’ Brien.

DARWIN appeals as the best prospect in Newmarket’s opener at 2.05.

It is tempting to think the stable may have a first and last race double with AFONSO DE SOUSA representing the final leg it. He looks a likely winner of the 5.25.

In between, WAR COMMAND is hard to oppose in the Dewhurst and Great White Eagle could easily supply a four-timer, although facing a strong rival in Sudirman, he may be the weakest link in an otherwise very strong chain.

PALLASATOR is a sporting selection in the Cesarewitch.

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SUNDAY OCTOBER 6TH

12.45: Don’t fancy Jwala – feel it was a fluke last time. Chances for Maarek (possibly better over six) on ground he likes, also Dutch Masterpiece and Reckless Abandon (unproven on ground), whilst Ballesteros goes on soft. Too many possibilities.
1.55: Forget Wilshire Boulevard – ground is against him. One of the French should win this – question is, which one?
4.40: Don’t fancy Gordon Lord Byron here, surely outclassed byMoonlight Cloud and the progressive Viztoria over this seven furlongs. Could see Garswood running well at a price.

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SATURDAY OCTOBER 5TH

If it’s the first weekend in October it must be Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe weekend. It is a cracking contest again this year, likely to be run on soft ground. Although it is possible to fancy a couple of horses at the two-day Longchamp meeting, at this stage it may pay to hold fire until we know how it rides. Saturday’s card will be informative – any late news or views to be posted on Sunday.

Closer to home, it appears as if there may be a few opportunities for us on Saturday.

We can start at Ascot where Hot Streak and Extortionist are the ones to beat in the 2.05 Group 3 Cornwallis.

Hot Streak was third in the Mill Reef last time and previously a winner of a listed event at York, but both runs may flatter to a degree.

A line through Supplicant gives the edge to Windsor Castle winner Extortionist, who ran well enough in the Flying Childers last time and has proven experience at this level. He is also suited by five furlongs.

It is possible one of the unexposed contingent may punch a hole in what appears solid form here, but Extortionist is preferred to Hot Streak and given preference in what looks like a sub-standard event.

2.40: The combination of a step up to 1m 4f and rain-softened ground will suit Gatewood after a satisfactory return to action in the UK when a staying-on second to Out Of Bounds at Doncaster.

Royal Empire will have his supporters but the 3lbs penalty proved his undoing last time at Kempton so he remains vulnerable now.

The very likeable Gospel Choir is undoubtedly worth his place in this company but does have to make the transition from handicap company.

The St Leger sixth, Secret Number is yet to win on turf, victories having come at Kempton and Meydan. So far he has run well in Group company without winning and it may be a similar story now.

Mijhaar and Repeater look a moody pair of customers; whereas Gatewood is a solid and consistent contender that ticks plenty of boxes in this company.

3.15: Race conditions suit Soul here who posted a promising effort last time in the Haydock Sprint when fifth to Gordon Lord Byron. A dangerous contender in such company, he relishes easy ground (crucial for his chances) and his proven soft ground record combined with the 4lbs he receives from Heeraat means he has a clear shot here. Again, this is a race long on numbers but short on quality.

At Newmarket, Oklahoma City is handed a real opportunity in the valuable sales race at 2.20. Second to high-profile stablemates, Wilshire Boulevard in July and Geoffrey Chaucer last week, both at the Curragh over, first 6f then a mile, this trip of seven should be ideal. So far he has only encountered decent ground, so any change in the Newmarket surface might be cause for concern.

Assuming conditions remain as they are today, we are looking at four solid and reasonably priced contenders on the day. As things stand, the suggestion is to shuffle them around in a multiple bet of some sort, as they should all be knocking at the door. OKLAHOMA CITY may represent our best chance followed by GATEWOOD and the other two.

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FRIDAY OCTOBER 4TH:

ASCOT

 

2.30:

From a pound lower mark, Gworn will be many people’s idea of the most likely winner here following his recent second to subsequent winner Ennistown at Haydock. A return to a mile should be in his favour, making him the one to aim at.

Emilio Largo has put a couple of promising runs together of late – most notably last time at Kempton when only four lengths behind Graphic in a competitive handicap. That is strong form, boosted by the runs of both Graphic and Seek Again in Saturday’s Cambridgeshire. Not the sort of horse to provide collateral at the bank, Emilio Largo shapes as if he is coming to hand, races from a handy mark and turns out in a race that has cut up since the five-day stage. He is worth chancing.

3.05:

As befits a Class 2 handicap over six furlongs confined to three-year-olds that has attracted eighteen runners, plenty of questions surround this event.

Twice-raced Blessington was last seen in July 2012 at Goodwood when winning a maiden that contained Garswood among others. His mark of 85 is a bit of a guess this far down the line, as is the absence.

Recently gelded Breton Rock is a winner of three out of his five races and looks progressive. However, a return to six furlongs is not guaranteed to be ideal, although a 5lb weight rise for his latest success is not prohibitive.

We are entering the time of year when finding well-handicapped horses is something of a rarity, but Normal Equilibrium does look well in, particularly when taking into account the 5lbs claim of his excellent young rider, Oisin Murphy. So far so good – he can be fancied here at what is likely to be an attractive price. Here comes the punch line: his two wins have been at five furlongs; although his ventures over today’s six suggest he should be equally effective over this trip, particularly if delivered late and played for speed.

Can You Conga is uncomplicated but although on the upgrade needs a personal best to win.

3.40:

A strong Irish challenge has to be taken seriously here – Dabadiyan and Dark Crusader fielding excellent claims. After a good second last time to subsequent Group 3 winner Camborne at Doncaster, Shwainan may come out best of the home-trained contingent, especially over what threatens to be his ideal trip.

4.15:

Two miles seems to suit the in-form Man Of Plenty who, although hardly well handicapped, faces rivals of a similar level from a handicapping perspective and may just get away with this.

Stand by for a going change and non-runners aplenty at Ascot on Friday.

However, unless it turns into the Somme, small stakes are advised on EMILIO LARGO and NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM, both of whom will have the advantage of racing on the sand-based straight course that should not be too affected by overnight rain.

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SATURDAY TIPS

 SEPTEMBER 28th

(posted Friday midday)

It’s a big day at Newmarket, kicking off with the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at 2.00, which sees the return to action of Chesham winner Berkshire. Absent since Royal Ascot, Berkshire was impressive at Ascot but needs to regain the threads here, particularly against Somewhat who looks a big danger judged on his latest win at Newbury from subsequent Doncaster scorer Be Ready.

2.35:

Vorda has clear form claims for the Group 1 Cheveley Park having suffered her only defeat in the Prix Morny when second to No Nay Never. On a tenuous line through Rizeena, Kiyoshi has a bit to find with her. Her tendency to drift one way or another may complicate things further across the expanse of Newmarket Heath.

Winner of a maiden at Cork and a Listed at the Curragh, Come To Heel could be anything but faces a stiff test here.

Vorda is the likely winner but backing horses that travel from France at short prices is not always rewarding. Perhaps we should let her win.

3.10:

Sky Lantern has been on the go since April, making it a long season as she lines up for this her sixth race of the year nearly six months on. If she is in the sort of form we saw at Newmarket in the spring and at Royal Ascot in June, she will probably win – something her price already assumes.

The rematch with Elusive Kate adds extra interest to this Group 1.

Rewind the clock to May and the 1,000 Guineas, and Just The Judge could be fancied to reverse that form with Sky Lantern; but, with the exception of her win in the Irish equivalent, it seems fair to say she has not gone on since.

In contrast, Integral is a much-improved filly that has the advantage of having come to hand at this late stage of the season. Whatever excuses are forwarded for apparently luckless Sky Lantern at Goodwood in the Nassau, the fact remains Integral was only a length behind her then and has probably improved beyond that run since. Having won her three other races (value for more than a dead-heat last time at Sandown) this could be her day to collect a big race.

3.50:

Not a race on which to dwell. From a stable with a proven record in this huge backend handicap, Seek Again has always appealed as a likely type to me.

Second to the very useful Van Der Neer as a juvenile, he created a favourable impression when opening his account for the season in August. Honourable efforts in defeat at Kempton since means a mark of 98 is feasible; but a return to turf and this extra furlong will need to be instrumental in the improvement required in order for him to win this.

He is a sporting wager from this quarter, if only because I have no wish to watch him win a race unbacked which I always thought was on his radar screen. However, I am not sure that is sufficient cause to recommend his claims to others!

At Haydock, Ehtifaal took the eye when fourth to God Willing at Newbury. He faces several types with a similar profile here but that Newbury maiden represented strong form and he is the one to beat.

Bets on the day:

Integral is worth a shot in the Sun Chariot at 3.10. Obviously she is no good thing, but she looks temptingly overpriced.

Ehtifaal ought to repay support at Haydock.

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NEWMARKET RACES

FRIDAY SEPT 27TH

(Posted Thursday afternoon)

1.40:

Perm any one from three fillies with varied profiles for this:

Firstly, the visually impressive Radiator, a winner by fifteen lengths at Lingfield last time when she beat little of substance but did so in taking style. She is a very attractive daughter of Dubawi that came to Goodwood on debut with a big reputation and could be poised to take major honours next year.

At this stage, arguably the filly with the best form is Lightning Thunder who, in a tight finish, beat the colts last time at Newbury, edging out Justice Day and Expert in a tight finish.

The claims of Stealth Missile should not be under-estimated after she also beat colts at Ascot last time, including easy Wednesday Goodwood winner Fracking. Radiator makes no appeal at the price but her rivals may not be quite in her league.

2.40:

After a lack-lustre effort at Haydock in very soft ground last time, a revitalised Montiridge would present a serious challenge to Soft Falling Rain, whose debut in this country when second in the Hungerford from a penalty, served notice he is likely to prove hard to beat in events such as this.

Penitent is reliant on soft ground to make an impact at this level, whilst Premio Loco is likely to struggle as is Boom And Bust.

But Guest Of Honour and Glory Awaits (held by Montiridge but ran the race of his life in the Guineas over this track in May), cannot be safely dismissed.

3.15:

Ihtimal was a ready winner of the May Hill at Doncaster and looks a filly at the top of her game at present. Not over big but very powerful, her Doncaster form received a major boost when Lady Lara won last Saturday at Newbury. Her presence will ensure Rizeena does not get things all her own way; whatever happens next year, she has a serious shot at Group 1 success now.

Rizeena has won four of her seven races, losing no caste in defeat in France when third to No Nay Never in the Prix Morny; however, her other two defeats did come over the undulations of Newmarket – one of those on the July course. That may be a coincidence, but her defeat from a penalty in the Cherry Hinton represented a dip in her overall form and it is just possible this type of track does not show her to best advantage. At present it is tempting to nominate Ihtimal as not only a serious danger, but possibly the most likely winner.

3.50:

Yuften sets a high standard in the maiden after a run bursting with promise at Newbury when second to the useful Barley Mow. Noticeably tenderly handled, with that run behind him, it will take a smart newcomer to lower his colours.

4.25:

Gatewood probably just needed his reappearance run at Doncaster when narrowly failing to overhaul Out Of Bounds. He has every chance of making amends here but is priced accordingly and will presumably not have his favoured easy surface.

Yuften appears the safest option on the day.

Ihtimal is seen as a tempting alternative to Rizeena in the Cheveley Park.

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BACK IN BUSINESS AT

NEWMARKET…

(Posted Wednesday evening for Thursday racing)

For many, Newmarket starts the Flat season proper with their Craven meeting in the spring and at this, the other end of the season, they are instrumental in its winding down. With the big juvenile events including the Dewhurst to come, headquarters does not succumb with a whimper.

The Somerville Tattersall Stakes (Group 3) at 3.40 on Thursday is the first of many such races due to be staged over the coming six weeks.

It also appears to present us with a real chance as God Willing appeals as an attractive betting proposition. This son of Arch created a big impression when winning at Newbury on debut in a race that has consistently proved its worth, supplying three individual winners of four races.

To get any negative aspect out of the way, runner-up, Raise Your Gaze disappointed next time at Leicester; however, fancied by connections, that run was almost certainly too bad to be true.

Getting back to Newbury, third horse What About Carlo was certainly not disgraced in the Haynes, Hanson and Clark last week and literal translation of that run puts God Willing at a similar level to Racing Post contender Pinzolo.

There is every reason to assume highly regarded God Willing will improve beyond simple weight and measures. He gets his chance in better company now in what appears to be an ideal race for a potential top class colt starting his ascension of the ranks. He is likely to be overpriced in the morning betting.

On the subject of juveniles, before its running, what we have in the opening event is an assembly of unraced horseflesh collectively capable of greatly reducing the national debt.

Colts by top stallions New Approach, Mastercraftsman, Dansili, Azamour and Duke Of Marmalade will be under scrutiny as they step into the parade ring for the first time.

None will be more eagerly awaited than Touch The Sky, trained by Mrs Cecil and by Sea The Stars out of Oaks winner Love Divine. This is surely an event that should fall to a newcomer and one from which much can be gleaned.

WEDNESDAY 24 September

(Posted Tuesday)

Advance NOTES)

Goodwood Racing

2.00:

Travis Bickle shaped well enough on turf at Lingfield last time when closing through the pack to finish second to Outback Traveller over six furlongs. That run suggests he should pick up a maiden.

Unfortunately, this may not be it. The inclusion of several high profile newcomers threaten to make this a hot event.

In particular, Sir Michael Stoute’s representatives look potential threats. Chief of these is possibly Derby entrant Arbaab, whilst stablemates Matravers and Idea have attractive pedigrees.

High Master, apparently by-passed by Richard Hughes in favour of Travis Bickle, may improve for the run.

Film buffs will recognise the name of Travis Bickle. If you are “looking at him; you, looking at me!” best you keep a similar watch on the market.

2.30:

On a day when selections carry a fair degree of complication, Double Bluff may present the best option. After a highly promising debut when second to Pupil at Doncaster, this stoutly-bred relative to Double Trigger and Double Eclipse should relish this extended trip and lays the best credentials on the line.

3.40:

The inclusion of Goodwood Cup winner Brown Panther in this event run over just short of 1m2f is something of a surprise. Although a winner over a 1m 4f in lesser company, his penalty, allied to the opposition he faces, make him a very unlikely winner.

On the face of it, this appears to present Grandeur – now stripped of his penalty – with a cast-iron opportunity. A course winner, he is unquestionably best on a firm surface. He would not want this surface to be any worse than good.

Now with the capable Marco Botti, a fit and well Sugar Boy would be feared on early season form – although fast ground would possibly count against him…

4.15:

With the ground drying out by the hour, despite an eye-catching return over this track in August, Sweet Deal’s preference for soft ground may preclude his chance in this handicap. Chances are his trainer – who wants firm ground for Grandeur – has only entered Sweet Deal as a precaution against the start of the next forty-days and forty-nights. He is highly likely to save Sweet Deal for a more realistic opportunity.

Kempton Racing

5.55:

Jazz reverts to maiden company but runs slap bang into two serious dangers in Middle Park entrant Mushir (said to be useful) and Almargo who is open to improvement for the dreaded Boys In Blue.

Anyone for golf?

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SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 21st

With so much racing, it is easy to go overboard – just what they want you to do!

At the moment three take the eye:

Let us start at Newbury, where Meteoroid looks potentially well-treated from a mark of 79 in the nursery at 4.05.

At Newmarket, Criteria is taken to progress from a highly promising debut at Goodwood in a warm maiden at 1.55. She looks a decent filly in the making.

William Hill et al are obviously excited beyond belief by the card at Ayr. Soft ground that is drying out and big field handicaps are what their management team dream of in the depths of night.

However, in the 2.40 Yeeoow does present us with an angle of advantage. Third behind Sir Reginald last week at Doncaster in a strong event, allowing for his capable rider’s 5lb allowance, he meets the winner on 7lbs better terms today and has the all-important advantage of a plum draw. Worth a shot in the dark…

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Friday 20th Sept.

A Tongue in cheek Preview of Newbury and Ayr Racing Tomorrow

 LEAVE IT OUT JOHN…

Anyone can go through cards and talk the talk, hiding behind a hundred selections. The question we all really need answering is: Can I pull up my money?

This in an attempt to find out:

Newbury: 1.30: By this track’s standards, this is a poor maiden. It is hard to be enthusiastic about those that have run and the unraced look potentially ordinary.

Only the representatives from the Cox and Perrett yards – Strategic Force and Excedo Praecedo – make any appeal on paper. As neither yard is particularly synonymous with debutant winners, this race remains something of a mystery at present.

2.00: The second division looks equally uninspiring. Those that have run look moderate at best. It could pay to concentrate on Dark Leopard and Cape Wrath, both of whom have attractive pedigrees and come from powerful yards.

The question remains which way one should lean and, of course, backing a horse you have never seen – and in the flesh turns out to be brown-and-white and suitable to pull a milk float or tow a barge – is never the best of ideas.

2.30: Goodwood Mirage looks likely to handle this step up in trip to 1m 4f (although that has to be confirmed on the racecourse) and is proven on the easy ground. His saddle slipped last time at Ascot so that run can be ignored. A likely winner but hardly well in off 94.

3.05: The next puzzle masquerades as the Class 3 Conditions that is the Dubai Duty Free run over the odd trip of nine furlongs. This is not the only oddity surrounding an event that contains a compliment returning from the dead.

First in the spotlight is last year’s Dante winner Bonfire, now gelded and looking more like a possible for Cheltenham in March than a likely winner on the Flat at Newbury in September.

Questioning looks well named, as does the so-far under-achiever known as Tales Of Grimm (at least if pronounced phonetically), who returns to the track with a new trainer after having finished fifth in the Diomed at Epsom when last seen.

Highest-rated French Navy is probably the safest selection if those two words apply to a Godolphin inmate that comes  and goes with the rising and waning of a full-moon.

Add Mujazif to this Macbeth brew constructed for the perverse and you have a race so full of questions, Jeremy Paxman should present it.

3.40: Pupil looked useful and progressive at Doncaster last week, although he took his time to find stride. Supporters will be hoping that was greenness rather than a worrying trait. That win was a step up on his debut here when he disappointed connections in a high-class maiden won by God Willing in which What About Carlo was third.

Pinzolo is hard to assess, but on the face of it has it to do after winning a nondescript Newmarket maiden.

After two promising runs, the unpenalised and Racing Post entry Red Galileo looks ready for this extra yardage.

Having won his maiden at Goodwood, What About Carlo is another that escapes a 3lbs penalty.

A word here to Eve Johnson Houghton: when you have a horse as well treated as What About Carlo appears to be (rated 79) it is advisable to exploit that rating in a nursery before sabotaging it in a race of this nature. Finish last here and unless you are tailed-off, the assessor will take note, leaving you with a horse in no man’s land.

Okay, anyone can shoot off their mouth! I will put myself where mine is: If What About Carlo wins this, then Eve knows so much more about this game than I do that I ought to retire and become her butler free of charge. As a precursor to this new position, I am prepared to offer my services as her naked butler for a day. I am not sure who will benefit most from this offer, or laugh the loudest, but in the belief I shall not need to find out, I make it in good faith!

The well-bred Observational will need to be ultra-smart to take this first time up.

4.15: Lady Lara has earned a high rating after runs in defeat that possibly read better that they were. Ihtimal easily dismissed her last week in the Park Hill and Lady Lara is unlikely to open her account in this.

Fashion Fund’s third to Summer Lightning here is hard to evaluate as the race is sending out mixed messages.

Water Queen is an interesting debutant that, like Observational in the preceding event, will need to be above average to open her account in such company. Despite the penalty, Rosehill Artist may be the one to beat.

4.50: Magic City is on a roll at present. He faces a hike in class against some fragile opponents, namely serial-loser Tawhid, and may be the safest option. The fact remains; this represents his stiffest task to date.

Ayr: 1.20: Well-fancied on his debut in York’s Convivial Stakes, although unable to get to grips with Golden Town there, Derbyshire looked the part. In less testing company, it is tempting to think this well-entered son of the American stallion Green Tune is worth another chance to show his true ability. However, most American-breds excel on fast ground – something he is unlikely to encounter here unless a squadron of helicopters form a nightly fly-past.

1.50: Long on numbers, this nursery may be short on quality. Makin The Rules runs here off the same mark as when second in a competitive event at York. From a handicapping perspective, he must have every chance against ragtag and bobtail opponents. However, the decision to run a Lawman colt over six furlongs when he was running-on over seven last time takes some fathoming.

Newcastle: 2.10: Volume looks the sort to capitalise on a highly promising debut at Newmarket against what appears lesser opposition. Her third to Enraptured was endorsed on Wednesday night when runner-up Psychometry and close up sixth Dancing Sands fought out the finish of a maiden at Kempton. She ought to be good enough, but, and I hate to mention this folks, she is ridden by a girl. Report me for sexism, but it’s my money – so I’m out!

3.50: Moral Issue looks well-treated running off a 6lb penalty for an easy win at Beverley ten days ago. There is a question mark hanging over that form and about this son of Ishiguru handling ground with the word ‘Soft’ in its description.

So, what about bets on the day?

My response is to wonder whether this is an initiative test to enter MI6.

My shortlist is Goodwood Mirage, Pupil or Red Galileo and Derbyshire.

Bets? At this stage: Leave it out John…

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BORIS GRIGORIEV TO PAINT AYR RED…

AYR Racing Tips

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 19TH

Today we are in a Las Vegas casino. The bad news is they no longer supply Budweiser on tap, nor food on request. Therefore it is a case of either gawping at fellow gamblers or getting involved in the action. We either play or pass.

As you have reached this far, I assume it is your intention to play. Therefore I suggest spinning the wheel in the 2.40 Ayr where Boris Grigoriev runs from a 20lbs lower mark than when last effective.

There seems little point in documenting previous achievements he almost certainly is no longer capable of matching: suffice to say that a mark of 67 puts him ‘down among the dead men’, especially considering last year he ran to a mark in the high 80s when five lengths behind The Cheka at Doncaster.

Closely weighted with Go Go Green on their running here in August – Boris Grigoriev’s first of the year – it seems reasonable to expect a modicum of improvement on that now.

Disregard his attempts at seven furlongs and a mile, as this horse is a sprinter and returns to his best trip here. His trainer is adept at getting animals such as he well handicapped, which could be the case in this instance.

Boris Grigoriev may be a risky proposition – in truth, his claim is about as watertight as the Costa Concordia – but that remark applies across the cards today and he is seen as worthy of a small wager at a price whilst waiting for the jackpot to fall.

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DONCASTER RACING TIPS

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 14th:

2.05:

Doncaster’s big day kicks off with the Group 2 Champagne Stakes, where The Grey Gatsby is taken to come out on top in a tight contest. He is confidently expected to overturn Acomb form with Treaty Of Paris and should account for penalised Anjaal.

A bigger danger is provided by Outstrip, who is arguably the form pick after narrow defeat in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

However, The Grey Gatsby looked inconvenienced by rattling fast ground at York and still nearly overhauled Treaty Of Paris there despite losing his action two out. Today’s conditions will suit.

3.15:

Given conditions appear ideal, Gregorian is a tempting proposition here. Although there is little between him and Aljamaaheer on form, that rival is unquestionably a better horse on fast ground – something denied to him here. After a decent win at Newbury last time, Gregorian can follow up.

3.50:

Excess Knowledge has been a selection for this for some time and carries a fair degree of stable confidence. His unlucky passage in the Gordon Stakes has been well documented – although, to be frank, the form could have worked out better. His run at Sandown over an inadequate 1m 2f against the useful Mandour, Afsare and David Livingston remains the best piece of overall form on offer, giving him every chance now.

Derby form looks decidedly wobbly and those representing it – Galileo Rock and Libertarian – are overlooked for that reason.

Similarly, Talent’s Oaks win leaves her something to find.

Proven stayer Leading Light is greatly feared. The fact he is given stable precedence over Foundry – who ran so well in the Voltigeur behind Telescope – speaks volumes.

5.00:

Showpiece is raised a very reasonable 6lbs for his Salisbury win over Captain Bob last time. He will be even more effective on this flat galloping track and his overall form reads well, giving him every chance from a handicapping prospective. The step up to a mile for a sprint-bred son of Kyllachy could be a worry.

There are no such worries for What About Carlo who like Showpiece could have sneaked in under the razor wire from a mark of 79. Proven over this trip and on this ground -What About Carlo was an excellent third to God Willing in a maiden at Newbury that looked good at the time and has worked out accordingly.

These are the two runners that make most appeal in the race and we suggest backing What About Carlo and saving on Showpiece.

In Ireland, at the Curragh, mention ought to be made of Alive Alive Oh who runs in the 3.35 Group 2 Blandford Stakes.

Said to be the best filly in Ireland by those purporting to know, they have waited for this ground and she is taken to get the better of Hot Snap.

The day’s bets:

This is not cut and dried. Notebook horses Excess Knowledge and Showpiece have every chance in their respective races, but with a clear line of vision, both face stiff tasks.

As stated, Leading Light and What About Carlo are much feared and, being honest, preferred as they seem more likely to run excuse-free races. At this point in time we suggest the following:

4 each-way doubles:

3.50: Excess Knowledge – Leading Light

                xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

5.00: What About Carlo – Showpiece. 

The place part of the bet should pay for the wager.

What About Carlo could be potentially overpriced in the morning and is worth a single bet at morning odds.

The Grey Gatsby, Gregorian and Alive Alive Oh are seen as solid candidates in their events.

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DONCASTER RACES

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 13TH

Punters might like to take note of the date before reaching for their wallets today.

However, whilst advising caution, there are three races that might benefit from closer inspection.

1.40: Ambiance lines up here with arguably the best form to his credit.

His latest run in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh was over six – which may not be his best trip. Even so, a four length fourth of five behind Sudirman is on a par with earlier runs behind Brown Sugar at Goodwood, Vorda in the Robert Papin and No Nay Never in the Norfolk. He warrants serious consideration back to five.

It would be remiss of me not to mention the negative side of any argument for him: namely that this will be his eighth attempt of the season and that, let’s face it, he comes from a stable that is hardly renowned for consistency.

Nevertheless, with Windfire’s third in the Lowther looking decidedly dubious, Ambiance is a tentative value alternative. If he is to win something of this nature, this is his chance to do so.

2.40: Last year’s winner and an autumn campaigner, Times Up, shaped well enough in the Yorkshire Cup last month but at the age of seven is surely vulnerable.

High Jinx has been absent since May and was twice beaten by Times Up last year (including in this race).

On the assumption Biographer needed the run when easy to back and behind Royal Empire at Newbury last month, it may pay to give him the benefit of any doubt here. He has a bit to find but should be effective on the ground and over the trip and has always shaped like a possible Cup horse.

3.50: This Listed contest should rest between Be Ready and Barley Mow, both of whom come here after promising efforts at Newbury. There may not be much between them now.

Whereas Barley Mow opened his account with a spirited victory, Be Ready, out of his depth on debut, lined up for the Washington Singer with a lofty reputation and performed with credit.

What we know about these two is that Barley Mow can put his head down and race, whilst Be Ready looks more of a galloper.

With both racing over the same course and distance (different days though) the clock suggests Barley Mow may be the quicker of the two.

Highly regarded at home, he represents a touch of value against the Godolphin talking horse – said to be their best two-year-old.

This is not a day for fearless betting. There are no stand-outs, but it may pay to back the three horses mentioned in a small multiple bet of some sort.

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DONCASTER ST LEGER MEETING

Wednesday 11 Sept

2.00: On a day when there are no easy solutions, JAZZ represents our best chance in this nursery. Twice noted achieving his best work in the closing stages of six-furlong handicaps, this step up to seven should suit and he seems feasibly rated from an unchanged mark of 83.

3.00: With comparative youth on his side, Justineo may be good enough here, especially as his stable has hit such a rich vein of form in recent weeks.

4.10: Thank you so much! This tough and tight little event poses plenty of questions.

Returning to the John Gosden stable after a period in Australia, – a fit and ready to run Gatewood would be the form selection back over his optimum trip. In great form, his yard is unlikely to waste such an opportunity so late in the season by leaving a horse short.

Another returning to his best trip is Elkaayed, whose run in the Gordon Stakes can be overlooked as he failed to stay. His form does leave him with something to find, but the Varian yard are in flying form so he is dangerous to dismiss.

No race of this nature would be complete without a Godolphin presence – this time the equation is complicated by the unwilling Ocean War and Out Of Bounds, who was last seen in Dubai early in March. One for the boys at Bletchley Park to solve!

We should know our fate early – JAZZ is the sole selection on the day.

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SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 7th

(Racing Preview posted at 3pm Friday)

Haydock Racing

2.40:

A 4lbs penalty looks unlikely to prevent the progressive Montiridge (who is proven on the ground, although it may not be ideal) from taking another stride towards a higher level in this Group 3. His price tempers enthusiasm.

3.50: By Dark Angel, Lethal Force is effective in the soft but such a surface is likely to blunt his speed. If he runs, he is sure to be a market drifter. Current conditions look sure to suit Garswood better. He does need to improve but is a selection in view of likely conditions.

Kempton Racing

2.55:

This is a tight handicap but on juvenile form and despite a defeat over course and distance at the end of August when tackling older company for the first time, Seek Again will be hard to beat. Well drawn, he should reverse places with Ehtedaam and confirm with Maverick. He remains a bright prospect.

Of the rest, at a price and back to a winning mark, the tricky Emilio Largo may attract morning support and go well.

Ascot Racing

Ascot looks tough.

At present we appear dependent on the intervention of the Racing Fairy to change its complexity.

Leopardstown Races

A glossy card where, in the 5.15, Free Eagle steps up to Group 3 company – a test, which, judged on his impressive debut and lofty home reputation, he should pass.

6.50:

Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes: A re-run of the Juddmonte International with the first three from York, Declaration Of War, Al Kazeem and Trading Leather joined by The Fugue.

Declaration Of War may be peaking now and therefore is likely to come out on top again, although the inclusion of one-time Derby favourite Kingsbarns adds another ingredient.

Racing Summary

With the ground threatening to play too big a part in proceedings at Haydock and the card at Ascot looking too difficult, in the 2.55 Kempton: Seek Again – with a small morning saver on Emilio Largo – is the day’s suggestion.

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GOODWOOD RACES : SEPTEMBER 3rd

It is Goodwood in the sunshine tomorrow with some good racing to match the last of the Pimm’s and those elderflower gins the course is becoming famous for.

Tea In Transvaal will be popular to get off the mark in the 2.55.

However, her Newbury second to Lightning Thunder took something of a knock on Saturday when the fourth from that event – Sound Of Summer – failed to win at Beverley.

Tinga lines up with the best form but this will be run number five, giving rise to the possibility she may not be progressive.

The unraced John Gosden representative – the expensive and well-bred Criteria – could be dangerous.

4.05: Expert has a big chance against this opposition having faced stiffer rivals recently. Crucially he has form on the track – when not disgraced in the Vintage Stakes – and, although not overly generous, a mark of 91 in a run-of-the-mill nursery, means he should be the one to beat.

4.40: This two-mile handicap looks difficult, but then Broxbourne makes any handicap look tricky. Up 5lbs since that win at York, she is an expert at confounding weights and measures and it would seem silly to jump ship now. She is a course winner (counts for a lot here) and should confirm her indolent York placing with Mawaqeet on a 1lbs worse terms. Her big strength is the ability to stay further and whatever her fate here, she remains of interest in the Cesarewitch.

Argent Knight, Waterclock and the unreliable but well-handicapped Martin Chuzzlewit enter calculations, but the biggest threat is likely to come from Mutual Regard, who has a real chance at the weights with Broxbourne on what may be a deceptive line through Homeric.

Wahaab in the 3.30 and Clear Praise in the 5.10 are other possibilities on the day.

Expert is nominated as our best chance.

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SATURDAY AUGUST 31st

We arrive at the last day of the month; many claim it to be the last official day of summer. It has been a quiet racing week – a week where most of the action has centred on Westminster.

Here, Messrs Cameron and Hague (Officer Dibble and Dangermouse) managed to achieve what should have been unachievable. In racing parlance, they got Frankel beat.

Despite overwhelming odds in their favour, between them they upset the political applecart when trying to convince a sceptical public it was a good idea to chuck a few missiles at Syria. That just leaves the French and the Americans to believe in such a strategy.

However, as I write, one gets the feeling the French are wavering and the Americans beginning to wonder. Far from being the shrinking violet in all this, although the Italians and the Germans amongst others have quietly dismissed this policy, it is possible the UK will lead the world in perceived logic. It is a shame from the PM’s and Foreign Secretary’s perspective that such thinking originated from the silent majority rather than the so-called clever men at the seat of power, which, incredible though it may be, in their ignorance they seemed to believe they were.

So it is back to the drawing board. Since being in office, Mr Cameron has experienced more u-turns than the contents of a Harpic container. Perhaps he should concentrate on actually running this country. If he is hungry for a skirmish, he could always try squaring up to the Spanish over Gibraltar.

There is no Frankel to beat this Saturday. Possibly the promising Kingman comes closest in betting terms in the Solario Stakes at 2.40 at Sandown. His opponents look below standard for this Group 3 and he created a favourable impression on debut at Newmarket. Already trading short, he should win, but perhaps it is wise to see him again before rushing to take cramped odds.

Lilyfire looks a serious contender in the nursery at 4.25. An attractive, strongly made American-bred daughter of First Defence that is well related, she won her maiden at Ascot in good style. She may have been a tad fortunate to hold Psychometry (who had to overcome a troubled passage), but the form is solid and it seems likely Lilyfire has more to offer. As a filly conceding weight all round, her supporters will be relying on her finding it. She promises to be better than her current mark of 80 suggests.

Sound Of Summer showed enough at Newbury on debut when a promising fourth to Lightning Thunder to attract interest at Beverley in 4.50. Her draw gives her every chance; she should know more now and can take advantage of a drop in class.

Elsewhere on the Yorkshire card, after tackling the Group 1 Nunthorpe last week, Wokingham winner York Glory returns to a more realistic level in the listed event at 2.30. His best form is at six furlongs, but he has every chance over this stiff five and from a favourable draw. That said, backing up so quickly after York, he does not add up to betting material.

At Chester, after two perfectly satisfactory efforts on this tricky track, New Fforest returns with a desirable draw and the benefit of her excellent rider’s claim to help her. No good thing, she is the one to beat in the 2.20.

Later on the card, My Painter may be a short price to win the maiden at 4.40. However, there is a doubt about the strength of the Newmarket event she finished fourth in and it may pay to let her run.

SOUND OF SUMMER and LILYFIRE represent the best opportunities at this stage. More later if the landscape changes.

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YORK RACING PREVIEW – DAY FOUR

We come to one of those days when I shall be waking in the morning with added vigour. You know how it can be: some cards just haemorrhage winners. You don’t have to look – they just jump off the page.

Whether the day works out or not, at least I go into it with the right frame of mind. And there is always a cold beer and Jesse Stone at its end. Days like this get the blood pumping. That is good news for bookmakers who like days like this for different reasons.

To an extent, optimism drives this game. Deep down we all believe there will be one day that turns out to be a life-changer. That may be somewhat dramatic; and you could argue it will come when your back is turned. But it won’t come if you don’t play; today, I am a player.

2.05:

Cristoforo Colombo is the class act in this. He has his first run since finishing eight lengths fifth to Dawn Approach in the 2,000 Guineas. All signs point to him not having progressed from two to three, but his overall form should be good enough to see him take this.

At around 7/4 or possibly shorter, I am inclined to feel we can let him win.

2.40:

This is a tight handicap.

There is little between several of these, notably Havana Cooler, Van Percy, Debdebdeb and Great Hall.

However, getting weight pulls with the last two and with Ambleside, from a form perspective, Hawk High comes out best of the bunch. Versatile as regards ground and a consistent sort who will appreciate this return to 1m 6f, at around 16/1, he looks a value selection from his shrewd stable and in first time cheekpieces.

3.15:

Back to six furlongs after a muddling run at Goodwood where he appeared to falter on the track, Parbold narrowly gets the vote. Although it will not be straightforward, his excellent trainer has found the ideal event.

There is a good word for Cable Bay here. Apparently he has improved since Goodwood when beaten by Saayerr, who is now penalised and will struggle to confirm that form.

3.50:

The Ebor may not be the ideal race in which to strap on the betting boots, but within the constraints of this event I am particularly keen on Tiger Cliff.

He looks like the best bet of the day. He produced a big effort in the Ascot Stakes over a trip that almost certainly tested the upper limits of his stamina. Given plenty of time to recover from those exertions, this has always been his mid-summer target. This return to 1m 6f looks sure to suit and he remains unexposed at this level. A classy sort, despite a high draw he should go very well.

Allow me to say I have not gone looking for these bets, but the beauty about them is at these prices, there is no need to throw money at them.

My suggestion is to back Tiger Cliff in the Ebor and maybe roll the dice to an extent with a multiple bet on a couple of the other selections. Personally, I shall not let Hawk High or Parbold run unbacked.

For those of you preferring to stick to message horses, then Cable Bay and possibly Sheikhzayedroad (runs all the way to Abu Dhabi from Dubai) or Caravan Rolls On (again a desert connotation) would be your preferences.

Elsewhere, a couple of snippets that make the other cards interesting.

At Goodwood in the 2.55,Glen Moss has to have every chance of following up after a facile win last week at Newbury. The twelve draw may not be the best but it is not terminal and against that, he runs from a penalty of only 6lbs.

After an easy win over this trip at Salisbury where he proved he is not short of pace, Afsare looks primed to win the Celebration Mile.

However, last time he came here he refused to race and that is not ‘Tom Jones’ for him. He may be a reformed character at present, but on past evidence is not always the best of betting propositions.

At Newmarket, facing a host of expensive unraced juveniles,War Spirit might be worth another chance to show his true ability in the 2.10.

On debut at Goodwood it was muted he was in the premier division at team Hannon. Apparently he threw away his race in the paddock and it could be a different story now.

---

 

Morning update

OVERNIGHT RAIN SAVES DAY:

Overnight rain has changed the ground at York to good to soft.  Therefore a host of non-runners is avoided due to very quick conditions.

This ground has swung in the favour of Pavlosk – who can now be backed with some confidence in the 3.05 Strensall Stakes.  The worry that the ground may have scuppered her chances has now passed and the filly has every chance in this Group 3 contest.

She is not running unfancied …
Elsewhere at York, the ground should improve Simenon’s chances in the 2.30, where his main danger still appears to be Ahzeemah.

It should also ensure the Nunthorpe is a more competitive event with the obvious advantage of fast ground for Shea Shea now removed. He remains the one to beat.

In the Convivial at 4.20, there are positive messages for Red Galileo and for the debutant, Derbyshire.

This greatly tempers confidence for Golden Town who, slightly worryingly, wears a tongue tie today on only his second run. After such a promising debut, he may still win, but the sole bet from this quarter today is for the filly Pavlosk. She is likely to be the subject of support this morning.

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Evening Preview …

YORK – DAY THREE

Lonsdale Cup (Group 2):

7/4         SIMENON

4            AHZEEMAH

9/2         CAUCUS

6            TIMES UP

12          COLOUR VISION

40          GLEN’S DIAMOND

50          ASKAR TAU

              100%

This may look easy enough on the face of it; however, as is so often the case when assessing staying races, not all may be as it appears.

Hugely consistent Simenon is the obvious selection without looking a good thing. Juice in the ground would aid his cause but he looks poised to run well.

Consistency seems to be Ahzeemah’s strong suit and his overall form suggests he presents the biggest threat.

Forget the run of Caucus in the Goodwood Cup – where he failed to act on the track – and on his Sandown win and his second to Estimate at Ascot, he is once again in the firing line.

Times Up peaked at this time last year (winning this, following up in the Doncaster Cup) but has offered little encouragement so far this term and will be tested in this field in any case;

Colour Vision has yet to recover the form he showed last year – notably when winning the Ascot Gold Cup – and is hard to fancy.

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 Strensall Stakes (Group 3):

5/2         PAVLOSK

3            ARCHBISHOP

5            CITY STYLE

8            GABRIAL

12          DANADANA

16          ROBIN HOODS BAY

20          RED AVENGER

              100%

With a drop of overnight rain, Pavlosk would be a 2/1 chance and worth backing. She took the eye at Goodwood over an inadequate seven furlongs last time and will relish this step up in trip. A winner at Newbury in April on good to soft, then here in May in the soft, she was outclassed but not disgraced by Sky Lantern in the Coronation at Ascot and served notice last time that a return to winning ways was imminent. She is at her best with juice in the ground, so it is a case of keeping an eye skyward before deciding whether to bet. If conditions fail to favour her here, she is worth bearing in mind for an autumn campaign.

Archbishop looks the biggest danger on his excellent Goodwood form when dead-heating with Trumpet Major and finishing marginally in front of high class Aljamaaheer last year. Not seen since running in Istanbul last September, a question mark hangs over him. For reasons expressed, it is entirely possible there will be weakness in the front two in the market. Therefore, a move for anything else should not come as a surprise.

Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1):

Plenty of contenders here have tried their luck at this grade without actually getting their heads in front.

With scant Group 1 form to call upon, back to the minimum trip on their preferred fast surface and on prevailing conditions, it is hard to steer away from Shea Shea and Sole Power.

These globetrotters are highly capable in this grade, Shea Shea having a narrow advantage on form.

Moviesta attempts to step up from a Group 2 victory at Goodwood and needs to pull out more in this company. However, with the other two drawn on the far side, taking the flimsy evidence of the draw that is available at this meeting so far, he may find himself best berthed to attack under the stand rail. Unless there is a marked change in the ground, the winner should come from these three with Shea Shea holding the call.

Convivial Stakes (Class 2):

The key race to this appears to be the maiden at Goodwood won by Snow Trouble, with the second, third and fourth all in opposition once again. The Goodwood event looked a strong one at the time, with plenty of fancied horses lining up.

Master The World was second, but in contrast to Golden Town,had the run of the race. He may struggle to confirm placings.

Tahadee was another to shape well in third, but it was the slow-starting Golden Town, finishing best of all in fourth that took the eye.

He looked a ready-made winner, but, slightly worryingly, connections reach for the tongue-tie now. Is it me – or is it hard to be confident about Godolphin representatives these days? They might look all right in Kempton maidens but not many make an impact at this level.

Add to that the fact Saturday’s Washington Singer runner-up, Be Ready was touted as far and away their best juvenile, and confidence is tempered here. We have to add Red Galileo into the mix after a promising debut at Newmarket.

As it stands, I wish I could impart more confidence about a card I feel we should be capable of cracking.

Notebook horse Pavlosk will surely pay for herself before the end of the season but is ground-dependent.

I am reluctant to recommend the other notebook horse, Golden Town, after the appalling run of stable mate First Flight on Wednesday.

I incline towards Shea Shea in the Nunthorpe but remain undecided in the Lonsdale Cup.

Perhaps it is wisest to see what the weather does between now and race time and we can look again when we know the state of the ground. Keep in touch with us here on this website and should the cloudy become clearer, we will post a message to that effect.

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YORK – DAY TWO

By any standards this is a tricky card, made all the more so by the fact that four of the six events are confined to fillies.

The first and last races bookending the card look too difficult at this stage, so it may pay to concentrate on those in-between.

Lowther Stakes Group 2

10/3 J WONDER

7/2 WIND FIRE

4 LUCKY KRISTALE

8 QUEEN CATRINE

12 MERLETTA

12 REROUTE

20 KAIULANI

50 ALUTIQ

66 AZAGAL

100%

J Wonder takes a step up in class here after landing a nursery at Newmarket from a mark of 79. That suggests she has something to find but she has always been considered a Group filly so this is her chance to prove it.

Wind Fire ran tamely over this trip at Ascot following her good effort at the Royal meeting behind No Nay Never – the best form on offer. Last week’s win at Newbury once again suggests six should suit, but she is turned out quickly.

Lucky Kristale has to defy a penalty (never easy in this company). There is the suspicion she may have met Rizeena on an off day when beating her in the Cherry Hinton.

The rest look as if they will struggle; although if there is to be a market mover from outside the obvious it could be Merletta, who is held in high regard at home and thought to be better than so far shown. Clearly, she will need to be.

3.05: Class 2 Handicap:

For once, Wentworth has been handed a good draw. At Goodwood he looked a Group horse in the making – winning with plenty in hand – and he should confirm placings with Sandagiyr.

It is hard to nominate an alternative to Wentworth, who looks solid.

Validus may be capable of better back to this trip.

Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1)

3 THE FUGUE

7/2 VENUS DE MILO

9/2 WILD COCO

9 SECRET GESTURE

12 EMIRATES QUEEN

12 SCINTILLULA

14 RIPOSTE

40 MOMENT IN TIME

100%

There are plenty of questions to answer here.

Firstly, all of The Fugue’s best form is at ten furlongs. She has been beaten on all three occasions she has attempted this trip, including in this event last year. The ground is in her favour and her stable in great heart, but she has to put a bad run in the Eclipse behind her.

Wild Coco will probably struggle on ground this quick; otherwise she would have been the call.

Venus De Milo is progressing and does not need to improve much to snatch this.

The rest all have a smattering of form that give them a chance in a race that makes little betting appeal. The market could be a major guide.

Galtres Stakes (Listed)

4 SAY

9/2 STAR LAHIB

5 SONGBIRD

7 OUR OBSESSION

12 CUSHION

12 LADY NOUF

20 COQUET

20 JATHABAH

33 BITE OF THE CHERRY

50 BOHEMIAN DANCE

66 EASTERN DESTINY

66 RIO’S ROSANNA

100%

Once again, this is a tricky event.

Say has only a moderate Cork maiden to her name. Although that was over today’s trip, her best form (2nd to Dank) was over nine furlongs and is there is a suggestion this trip may stretch her stamina.

Songbird may have reached the limit of her capabilities last time but is still an interesting prospect. That also applies to Our Obsession.

However, the solid candidate appears to be Star Lahib who may lack the high profile of some of these, but seems less complicated. She could be the call.

This looks a tricky day. At this stage I am tempted by Star Lahiband nominate Wentworth as the other possible. I suggest stakes be kept to a minimum as it is a long week and better opportunities will surely present themselves.

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YORK DAY ONE …

York’s opening day has all the hallmarks of being busy – at least as far as we are concerned. With two Notebook runners reappearing along with a couple of betting opportunities rearing their (hopefully not ugly) heads, the stage is set to do some serious damage one way or another!

Following on from 100% tissue prices issued at the weekend for the Juddmonte International, I thought I would apply them to three of the supporting events on today’s card.

Let us start with the Acomb Stakes at 2.30:

• 7/4 THE GREY GATSBY
• 2 FIRST FLIGHT
• 11/2 BRAZOS
• 8 IL PAPARAZZI
• 40 TREATY OF PARIS
• 66 LADY LARA
• 100%

The Grey Gatsby lines up with the best form credentials having beaten Goodwood winner Brazos impressively on debut. He looks a decent sort.

First Flight went into the Notebook after a visually impressive win at Newbury when he recovered from a sluggish start to quicken past his field. The problem is the form has taken two knocks.

Decimus Maximus (beaten over 10 lengths at Newbury) was beaten even further last week when behind Showpiece at Salisbury. Newbury third Sandy Cove was only third on Monday at Windsor, so visually appealing though he was on debut, First Flight’s has to improve again. At around the 2/1 mark he makes limited appeal.

Brazos looked as if he had done exceptionally well since York last time when winning at Goodwood. Although he has work to do to beat The Great Gatsby and is unlikely to do so, it would be unwise to rule him out entirely.

Il Paparazzi is another unlikely winner but the fact remains he did beat two subsequent winners over this track last time.

The other two cannot win.

Essentially, this should rest between The Grey Gatsby and First Flight; but as it is not possible to discard the next two in, neither makes any betting appeal.

3.05 The Great Voltigeur Stakes:

6/5 TELESCOPE

9/2 CAP O’ RUSHES

8 FOUNDRY

10 WILLIE THE WHIPPER

10 SECRET NUMBER

16 NICHOLS CANYON

50 SPILLWAY

100%

Although beaten last time, there was nothing wrong with Telescope’s run behind the useful David Livingstone. Now back against his own age and upped in trip, he can win this.

A strict interpretation of the Goodwood win of Cap O’ Rushes (on a line through Excess Knowledge and David Livingstone) means he is entitled to beat the selection. However, we all know he was a fortunate winner of the Gordon Stakes and clearly David Livingstone improved for the Sandown outing on which this dubious premise is based. Cap O’ Rushes has his work cut out against the classy Telescope.

Foundry has not been seen since winning a maiden in Leopardstown in November. There is nothing especially eye-catching about that run and vibes suggest that remark reflects his chance here.

Nothing else makes any appeal. Secret Number was unlucky to an extent at Goodwood although in any event would not have won. That also goes for Spillway. The overall form of Nichols Canyon gives him something to find. Willie The Whipper, who appears to stay well and handle soft, has bits of half-decent form in France. He could be the surprise package, but it takes a leap of faith to back him. TELESCOPE is a confident selection.

3.40 Juddmonte International Stakes:

6/4 AL KAZEEM

6/4 TORONADO

12 TRADING LEATHER

16 DECLARATION OF WAR

16 HILLSTAR

1000 REWARDED

100%

I am sticking to my Sunday prices for this event and nominate TORONADO as the winner. A line through Declaration Of War gives him the beating of Al Kazeem.

The only negative is the trip – you do have to take his ability to stay on trust. I believe he will and that he will also stamp himself as one of the best of this year’s Classic generation by taking this.

4.20 Class 2 Handicap – 2m:

6 BROXBOURNE

7 HOMERIC

10 SURAJ

14 EAGLE ROCK

14 FLASHMAN

14 MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT

14 PARTY LINE

16 MAWAQEET

16 WILLIE WAGTAIL

16 WYBORNE

20 ALL THE ACES

25 JONNY DELTA

25 NOBLE SILK

33 BLUE BAJAN

33 CRACKENTORP

33 HIGH OFFICE

33 VIKING STORM

106%

(It is impractical to bet to 100% on a seventeen runner handicap, but I have come close and the remaining percentage could still be achieved with a little tweaking. However, in that case, it is unlikely to identify a possible bet.)

Seemingly progressive Broxbourne turns out again after winning at Goodwood and having her chances sabotaged by her New Zealand lady rider at Ascot.

Reunited with Joe Fanning, who was superb on her at Goodwood, she looks guaranteed to run well. She is a Notebook horse mainly because now she has proved she stays beyond two miles, she would be a major player in an event such as the Cesarewitch where lack of stamina is the downfall of many a contender.

She remains closely weighted with Homeric. Inclined to doss in the middle part of her races, her regular jockey can be relied upon to ride her with that in mind. Expect her to be a late closer.

Of her opponents, most are exposed. However, if reproducing his Goodwood run of last time from the same mark of 93, Suraj would go close. He is not one of the most reliable of characters but has always harboured ability. He may have turned a corner or two since disappointing last season when at one time considered as a possible St Leger candidate.

Similarly, the under-achieving Martin Chuzzlewit is another attractively weighted but his ability to stay this trip cannot be taken for granted.

BROXBOURNE has every chance and is worth a small bet, although an interest in SURAJ at morning prices is also recommended.

It is my intention to back Telescope, Toronado and to play for small money in the above handicap. Therefore, I will be hitting the ground running early in the week. I only hope to be standing by its end!

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD
– THURSDAY JULY 31st:

2.05: Having valuable experience here when second over this trip in June, on a firm surface that should suit, it could be worth chancing Astronereus, who appears to be on the upgrade. His profile suggests he is improving with each run; although the maiden he won at Newmarket last time was not up to much, he did draw clear and, faced with rivals that are by and large exposed, may reward conservative support at decent odds.

2.35: Despite a penalty, Ivawood is expected to beat a strong field for the Group 2 Richmond. Easily mistaken for a three-year-old, this powerful son of Zebedee can confirm Newmarket form with Jungle Cat and beat several unexposed and apparently useful opponents.

3.10: All signs point to Estimate, who, contaminated feed or not, surely ran the race of her career when only just touched-off by Leading Light in this year’s Ascot Gold Cup – a race that looked of better quality than the renewal she won in 2013. Cavalryman is probably her biggest danger, whilst last year’s winner Brown Panther is another likely to provide plenty of threat.

3.45: Talent has been winner-less since her Oaks victory, but her second to Leading Light over this trip in the St Leger at least matched her Epsom triumph. Lightly-raced this season, she had no hope of winning the Coronation Cup first time out but gave cause for optimism last time in the Lancashire Oaks. Now against her own sex, and over this trip, if she is going to justify the decision to be kept in training as a four-year-old, this is her opportunity to do so. Missunited represents her biggest danger after a cracking effort in the Ascot Gold Cup. Versatile as regards trip, she presents a serious threat, but achieved her third at Ascot by maintaining a strong gallop throughout. This is a different type of test and Talent should have too much of a sting in her tail.

4.20: Often a maiden that features fillies likely to play a part in decent future events, this year looks no exception. Those with form appear promising as do several debutants who look the part on paper.

4.50: Championship faced a stiff task last time when attempting to concede 4lbs to Moohaarib at Doncaster. Only beaten three-quarters of a length, this suggested he was back to the sort of form that saw him win his opening maiden at Newbury last May and then saw him go off as one of the market leaders in the Coventry. It is entirely possible the handicapper has underestimated Secret Hint who, despite being 4lbs out of the weights, is expected to beat more than beat her.

5.25: Looking as if it could be staged at Lingfield, this is hardly an appropriate closer on such a day. Those of us misfortune enough to be behind at such a time in the proceedings are unlikely to readdress that situation in this.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD – WEDNESDAY JULY 29TH:

1.55: The participation of Made In Rio threatens to polarise opinion here as, after such an emphatic win at Ascot on Friday, she could easily be thrown in. However, she has to prove she can stay such an extreme trip, but if she does, she is 10lbs well-in on official figures and only 3lbs higher than on Friday. In her current form she looks a tempting proposition. Those in opposition are no more than average, so Maid In Rio has an excellent chance of following up.

2.30: Lightly-raced Observational is potentially the best horse here, but after a two month absence he may be marginally short of his best. A course winner when taking the Cocked Hat in May on only his third start, a minor injury ensured he was unable to fulfil a Derby engagement. In the long-term that may prove to be a blessing in disguise, although today’s opposition looks testing. Taken at face value, after finishing third in the Eclipse, Somewhat places the best credentials on the line and is preferred to Snow Sky, who was well beaten at the Royal Meeting when behind a staying-on Scotland when both found Eagle Top too good.

3.05: With a finishing kick of speed that proved electric at Ascot, it is hard to see Kingman getting beaten in the Sussex Stakes. Toronado will provide stern opposition but last year’s winner does not look quite up to the standard required to beat the three-year-old.

3.40: With two decent subsequent winners struggling in his wake, a twelve-length rout in a Gowran Park maiden makes Highland Reel hard to oppose in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes. Ahlan Emerati looks best of the home team.

4.15: After a promising debut at Doncaster, Shahah looks best here and should be hard to beat.

4.50: Handicaps for fillies are not the best of betting mediums; with several unexposed sorts that could be better than their handicap marks amongst the field here – notably Patterned, Principle Equation and Water Hole, this is no exception.

5.25: Matters do not get any easier as the day progresses – culminating in a last race that looks next to unsolvable.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD – TUESDAY JULY 29TH:

1.55: Despite the ground turning against him at the eleventh hour, Magic Hurricane still coped with softer conditions than considered ideal when third in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock earlier in the month. Assuming no unexpected rainstorms strike Goodwood, he should have every chance in this opening handicap. Favourably drawn, and unlikely to be inconvenienced by this drop in trip; a pound rise for his last run is hardly prohibitive. With Sea Shanty’s form having taken a dive of late and Stomachion looking fully exposed, Salutation, who enters the reckoning after his latest run at Ascot and is partnered by a capable apprentice who has won on in him, could represent the biggest danger.

2.30: With Beacon looking better and better with each run, it would seem little, if any, improvement will be required for him to add the Group 3 Molecomb to his expanding portfolio. His main danger would appear to be Cotai Glory, but he is unlikely to trouble the son of Paco Boy who so far has shown all the attributes conducive to a horse capable of even better.

3.05: This reduction to seven furlongs may spark rejuvenation in course and distance winner Toormore, but on this year’s evidence his place in the market cannot be fully justified. He did not run badly in the 2000 Guineas, but there was very little encouragement to be gained from his performance in the St James’s Palace. Admittedly, against a couple that look out of their depth and a couple that have two ways of running, he still looks the best horse in the race, but Gregorian and Professor are capable of exposing any weakness in a favourite that comes here with an unconvincing profile.

3.40: Havana Cooler and Van Percy could be the two to take against the field, although the draw threatens to complicate their claims. Both need to recover earlier form. Havana Cooler was not disgraced last time when close up in the Old Newton Cup, but makes more appeal on his excellent third at Ascot in the Duke Of Edinburgh. This step up in trip should play to his strengths. Van Percy was never able to negate a dreadful draw in the Northumberland Plate but had hitherto looked like a horse about to come into his own over a distance of ground. Any support for half-decent Australian import and 2012 Melbourne Cup fourth Kelinni would be significant. Despite a non-staying pedigree, his run behind Green Moon over two miles at Flemington casts aside any stamina doubts and his shrewd trainer is more than capable of laying one out for a race such as this.

4.15: Those that have run look ordinary, making it odds-on that a newcomer will pinch this. Acaster Malbis and the well-bred and well-entered Misleading take the eye on paper, but the market is likely to be a more reliable guide.

4.50: There was a time when Showpiece would have demanded a second look from a mark of 81 in such a contest as this. However, this track is unlikely to play to his strengths (best on flat courses) and his overall record suggests he is regressing. In what is not a strong race in terms of quality, it could pay to side with Lesha.

5.20: Barnet Fair has been kept busy after a promising run at Epsom in the Dash on Derby Day. Second at Ascot on Sunday, he has the assistance of an excellent apprentice and is 2lbs lower than when sixth to Caspain Prince on a similar track. Brighton winner Daylight is another proven on a downhill plunge, whilst last year’s winner, Tidal’s Baby, looks as if he has been groomed with this in mind again, although he may not have the best of the draw. In any event, we all know how hard these races are to call correctly.

SATURDAY JULY 26TH:

Ascot: 1.30: Kodi Bear, Muhaarar and Peacock line up in this competitive and informative listed event with the best form. Having finished third to the impressive Ivawood in the July Stakes, Muhaarar presents us with current form and may come out best of the trio. But the inclusion of promising types Disengo and Diaz means this is not an easy event to call.

2.05: Goldcrest and Muraaqaba are accorded preference over Albany fifth Osaila in what looks a sub-standard Group 3, particularly in comparison with the opening event.

3.15: Royal Ascot casualties Horsted Keynes, Belgian Bill and Ayaar get their chances to atone in an ultra-tough handicap. Fast ground seems essential for Horsted Keynes, Ayaar is less ground dependent, whilst Belgian Bill – who finished full of running in the Hunt Cup – seems the most likely to cope if the rain that hammered down on Friday persists and has an impact.

3.50: And so to one of the great events of mid-summer – the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Providing Ascot is not subject to a furtherance of the monsoon conditions it withstood on Friday, the ground should be just about perfect for a race of this magnitude. The first four in the betting all have something to prove at this level. As a big horse, although not wanting soft ground, Telescope will probably appreciate a forgiving surface. A notoriously indifferent worker at home (behind Arab Spring prior to his demolition job in a below-par Hardwicke), albeit twelve months later than the Derby many thought he might lift, Telescope, a horse that has benefitted from his trainer’s legendary patience, gets his big chance. As a strong, bullish four-year-old, he will be hard to beat but faces his toughest test. After only three runs, Eagle Top comes here as the dark horse. By Pivotal out of Gull Wing, he will appreciate some cut in the ground and looks extremely progressive. His stable has always liked him and the manner of his victory in the King Edward VII Stakes only bolsters that opinion. Despite the presence of the Oaks winner, he is seen as the flag-bearer for the Classic generation. Taghrooda has to overcome a real hoodoo if she is to win. Only two three-year-old fillies have succeeded in this race since its inception in 1951 – both coincidentally trained in France: Dahlia, who went on to win back-to-back events as a four-year-old, and Pawneese. Despite an emphatic win at Epsom that cemented her claims to be a much better than average winner of the Oaks, Taghrooda (the understandable pick of her rider over Eclipse winner Mukhadram) faces a monumental task. Magician completes the short-list. He is likely to improve on his Prince Of Wales second now he returns to a mile-and-a-half. Telescope and Magician are seen as the main two in that order.

FRIDAY JULY 25TH:

Ascot: 2.10: Despite an ever-present unease about her stable, Malabar has sufficient in her favour to punch through any such reservations. By Raven’s Pass – so fast ground will be fine – she lines up on the back of two runs that read well. Second to subsequent nursery winner Savoy Showgirl on debut and then a staying-on fourth in the Albany, she looks like a winner in waiting. This step up to seven furlongs should be ideal and however you dice her chance, with Group form already in the bag, she is hard to oppose.

4.30: There was plenty to like about the run of Elhamme at the Royal Meeting in the Duke of Edinburgh when sixth to Arab Spring and he looks a very interesting participant here, particularly now he reverts to 1m 2f. Having been dropped by 2lbs this looks to present an ideal vehicle for this son of Acclamation, who is fancied to overturn form with Salutation on 5lbs better terms and in a less deep contest. In contrast, Zain Eagle has been raised by 2lbs for what on the face of it looks an excellent run in the John Smith’s Magnet Cup. However, it is worth bearing in mind that not many got into that race. Although indelibly stamped into the form book, it may not be a wholly accurate reflection. Presburg and Double Discount represent credible opposition without looking like horses one should be unduly wary of.

WEDNESDAY JULY 23rd:

After an excellent debut over this course and distance when second to Mustadeem earlier in the month, on looking yesterday I assumed Darshini would be odds-on in the maiden run at Sandown tonight at 7.10. Mustadeem had finished second to the subsequent Superlative winner at Newbury so not only did Darshini take the eye, but he has form claims also. In what should be a two-horse race (it will take a smart newcomer to get a look in), Darshini will line up with better form claims than Azmaam who, although looking promising at Newmarket, has a little to find with the selection.

SATURDAY JULY 19th:

With the Beach Boys surfing the high waves after racing at Newbury, there should be plenty of Good Vibrations once the action is over, although it could be more a case of God Only Knows before the Californian Sound kicks in.
Actually, racegoers often grumble about having to pay extra for entry to the Premier and Grandstand enclosures on days when bands or likewise are due to perform after racing. They claim they are paying for something they have no wish to avail themselves of. It would appear, the likes of Madness, Wet Wet Wet, Tom Jones and Rick Astley fail to stimulate regulars, who argue it should be possible to operate a two-tier system of entry whereby those only interested in the racing can pay as normal and then depart to the usual cubby holes reserved for those in need of a good sulk.
A special purple badge with the word “Curmudgeon” emblazoned on its background should do the trick; although I am not so sure those advocating such a distinction will need the badge. In Victor Meldrew style, I suspect they will stand out in one form or another.
The problem with having two entrance fees is that quite clearly those wishing to see the act on offer and not view the racing will also claim they need special dispensation. They will argue they are paying for an afternoon of racing they have little interest in. This will result in the racecourse becoming the loser. Ultimately the hit to revenue would be too much for them to absorb, resulting in it either being too expensive to stage acts after racing without a major price hike, or for the facility to be phased out altogether. At a time when racing is attempting to reach out beyond its usual parameters, neither scenario can be regarded as desirable.
But, back to the Newbury card for Saturday…
The opening maiden at features a couple with claims. However, they appear to have been flattered in better events. In finishing sixth in the Dante, Saab Almanal was not exactly disgraced next time at Newmarket but was never seen with a realistic chance. He may be better returned to this trip but those banking on that could be clutching at a slender straw. After two promising efforts, Smiling Stranger lines up with a similar profile, having flopped when long odds-on last time at Pontefract. Again, the trip may have been his undoing and if recovering the sort of form that saw him finish behind Criteria at Kempton and Connecticut at this track, he would enter the mix. Both mentioned are by sires that have patchy records with their offspring and look risky betting propositions. Automated, Deuce Again, Skilled and the unraced Long Cross complicate the race further.

The fillies’ handicap at 2.05 threatens to stretch the patience and credulity of punters. On the face of it, after promise at Sandown when not knocked about from this mark, Provenance looks interesting. The appliance of a first-time hood tempers enthusiasm though, whilst Gown may require more give than she can currently expect. The disappointing Jordan Princess needs to bounce back from two lack-lustre runs to enter the reckoning.

2.40: The return of three-time Group 1winner Al Kazeem, who escapes unpenalised in this listed event after an unsuccessful spell at stud, means he is presented with an outstanding theoretical chance. If lining up in good order he threatens to be too classy for his opponents, but he hardly comes here after an ideal preparation. Although he seems to have two ways of running, Triple Threat is decent on his day and is another facing a drop in class. The lightly raced Ballydoyle cast-off Sir Walter Scott is another wild card punters need to pick up or put down at their discretion.

3.15: Having finished fourth in last month’s Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, Music Master lines up with the best single piece of form. Although held by Rocky Ground on Windsor running, it is possible he is improving at a rate of knots. If so, and if capable of replicating that Ascot form, he is clearly the one to beat. Intibaah, Rocky Ground and Naadirr are sprinters with similarly unexposed profiles that cannot be easily overlooked as they could be up to this hike in class.

3.50: Tiggy Wiggy is the class act here but has the weight to go with such a label. Even so the conditions of entrance favour her and she should go well. Haxby is one of only a handful that has a chance on official ratings. As a colt against a filly he is entitled to serious consideration and, in the belief Tiggy Wiggy represents a reliable benchmark, looks value against the Queen Mary runner-up. Pillar Box and Fast Act are two that could easily be better than we have seen so far, whilst at the bottom of the weights, Realtra could be well-treated on the strength of her run in Ireland last time.

Unraced Time Test will not have to be anything other than smart to make a winning debut in the conditions event – another example of trainers failing to support the kind of race they cry out for at every opportunity – and Number One London (an unlikely stayer given his pedigree but proven over marathon trips) combine to become lazy tips in the concluding events. That said they may face harder assignments than it seems at face value.

Newmarket: 1.50: Even with the excellent Cam Hardie claiming a valuable 5lbs, Llanarmon Lad faces a tough ask in the opening handicap. Most of his opponents are unlikely to deliver any rabbits from the hat, but it is possible that a 2lbs rise after all but winning a Sandown handicap last time means Tanseeb has been let in lightly. Beaten a whisker by Sea Shanty (fourth in the Hunt Cup next time) and looking as if this trip has improved him last time, Tanseeb gets his chance here. He certainly makes more appeal than fellow three-year-old Music Theory, who has to concede him seventeen pounds and hardly looks well handicapped.

Inches behind Tarfasha in the Oaks at Epsom when having to negate a high draw, Volume looks overpriced in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh at 5.45. That form threatens to be crucial.

The unpredictable notwithstanding, HAXBY and TANSEEB look potential value bets at Newbury and Newmarket respectively.

SATURDAY July 12th:

Newmarket: 2.40: Promising Gleneagles and Estidhkaar look the two concentrate on in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes. Both have taken two runs to get off the mark and both have won over today’s distance. The deciding factor could be which of the two handle the forecast soft ground the better. On pedigree and given their respective actions, Estidhkaar looks the more likely of the pair to do so. With his Newbury form having been franked by the recent win of the runner-up, he represents a value alternative to the likely Ballydoyle favourite.

3.15: After going close in the Victoria Cup and the Hunt Cup at Ascot, Ayaar is knocking on the door of a big handicap. Lightly-raced and a decent three-year-old last year, although he has only a length in hand of Abseil on Hunt Cup running, the latter pulled too hard at Ascot and could be expected to finish closer over this sharper trip. However, soft ground is not in Abseil’s favour meaning Ayaar should come out on top once again. Unlucky Buckingham Palace runner-up Horsted Keynes looks interesting and if reproducing that run would have to be a serious contender. Once again, there is a doubt about his ability to handle the ground and for that reason, Ayaar is the selection.

3.50: Although respecting the claims of Diamond Jubilee winner Slade Power, as they field a strong contingent, three-year-olds may have the call in the Group 1 July Cup. The drop back in trip looks sure to suit Noozhoh Canarias, who has form on soft and appeared to find the trip beyond him in the 2000 Guineas. He is a very classy recruit to the sprinting ranks and looks poised to go well. He could be the bet for sensible money; but I cannot help but feel there is real value to be had elsewhere. Were it not for tearing off at a nonsense pace in the Diamond Jubilee, Astaire would be nowhere his current price and reunited with a jockey that knows him well, last year’s Middle Park winner (when he beat Hot Streak) can show the sort of form that we know he is capable of. His run in the Duke Of York on the soft from a penalty surely signified he was likely to play a major part in top class sprint events later in the year. Due Diligence’s chance would probably be improved if the ground dried out considerably.

York: 3.30: The highly promising G Force gets a chance to atone for his latest and somewhat unfortunate defeat at Sandown in this listed event. Unpenalised, he should be too good for erstwhile but somewhat exposed opponents

NEWMARKET JULY MEETING – July 11th: Day Two

2.40: Falmouth Stakes: Now 5lbs better off with Integral and Purr Along from the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge at Royal Ascot, with the benefit of that run under her belt – a run that was much needed according to her stable and the evidence of the way she raced – there is every chance Sky Lantern, last year’s runner-up in this, will be in peak condition for a second crack. As befits a Group 1, she faces testing opposition: Integral is in great heart and Rizeena defied the vibes to win the Coronation last time. It is worth recording that Rizeena is nought from four at Newmarket (three of those runs at the Rowley track). It seems for whatever reason her best form up to now has been on flat tracks. She will need to record a personal best and some to win this. On easy ground – getting easier by the hour as we speak – ground she has won on, Sky Lantern is taken to exact revenge on the tough and improving Integral.

NEWMARKET JULY CUP MEETING – Thursday July 9th:

1.40: Bahrain Trophy (Group 3): There is a crossover of form here as those with established form are represented by Queen’s Vase winner Hartnell and King George V Handicap runner-up Windshear, whilst Forever Now spearheads a challenge from those that have posted promise but now take a step up in class. Hartnell was involved in a gladiatorial struggle at Royal Ascot and it is just possible the race may have left its mark. It is also worth bearing in mind he finished distressed when disappointing at Epsom. If on song he sets the standard. Windshear has improved all season in handicaps, putting up a classy effort last time when second from a wide draw to Elite Army.
Forever Now’s second to Wonderstruck over this track makes him interesting. He followed that run with a facile Doncaster win and looks like another progressive type from his powerful stable. He could prove a serious threat to the front two, particularly if they fail to show their best and could be the safest option. As it stands The Corsican and Vent De Force need to improve drastically on anything so far shown, their participation looking to carry a degree of optimism on the part of connections.

2.10: July Stakes (Group 2): As always this is a race jam-packed with potentially useful types. Norfolk flop, The Great War scoped dirty on return to his stable so that run is best dismissed. Having carried a big home reputation that was swept aside in a stride, this is his chance to atone and we are likely to see a different horse now. Edgy in the pre-parade ring at Royal Ascot, his demeanour beforehand will give us a big clue. After beating a hotpot at Goodwood and finishing third in the Coventry, Jungle Cat sets the standard. After promising debuts, Belardo, Ivawood and Ustinov line up looking like decent prospects.

2.40: Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 2): As promised Arab Spring dips his toe in deeper waters after rattling up four wins in progressively better company this season. With no standouts in the opposition, this has the look of a winnable Group 2. Recent work at home means he continues to impress. Apparently impervious to ground, he should be hard to beat.

3.15: This Class 2 handicap seems to have attracted a collection of poorly treated contenders. Providing the expected rain does not alter the ground considerably, Mount Logan has an obvious chance but his hike in the handicap means he has to find plenty. It is the same story with the equally promising Mange All, who should benefit from easy conditions but whose rating of 86 leaves little margin for error.

3.50: Having finished fifth in the Albany to Cursory Glance, Osaila looks to have the best credentials for this maiden. Exceedingly looks the biggest threat.

4.25: Once again Royal Ascot form rises to the fore with Windfast and Zarwaan respectively representing the Jersey and Britannia form. It is also possible Table Rock (behind Zarwaan at Ascot but a winner since) will enter calculations whilst Pretzel is open to further improvement.

5.30: A competitive sprint handicap rings down the curtain on what promises to be an interesting but tricky day from a betting point of view.

SATURDAY JULY 5TH:

Haydock: 3.30: After what was an excellent effort at Royal Ascot last time behind Arab Spring, it is hard to get away from Havana Cooler in the Old Newton Cup. Raised a pound for finishing third to a Group horse in the making on his first appearance of the season, representing a top class yard and handed a plum draw, his chance is inescapable. He looks the sort to poach a major handicap from this present mark, possibly before progressing to better things. By and large this is a competitive enough race but most of the participants are known to the handicapper and few can claim to have been let in by the back door. It is possible Mighty Yar may step up on his latest Newmarket run, in which case, if consolidating his form on the Rowley course, he could pose a threat.

Sandown: 2.05: The arrival of promised rain to freshen the track will boost the prospects of Steps in this Group 3. He has been in the form of his life this year, finishing an unlucky fourth in the Dash at Epsom and then a creditable sixth last time in the Group 1 Kings Stand at Royal Ascot where, with a clearer passage, he would have been placed. To an extent, although genuine enough, he is his own worst enemy, meaning it could be claimed he is not the safest of betting propositions. Not an easy ride (often starts slowly and can become detached before finishing strongly), he has the advantage of Keiren Fallon (who suits him well) and the one draw (an advantage he will probably negate to a degree, but his jockey is a past master at threading his way through fields). A bet for the brave, he will probably need a dollop of fortune but Steps has the ability to win this. A reproduction of his Ascot run would see Stepper Point in the mix and a return to the minimum should suit Shamshon. He has a bit to find, but even so may outrun his price.

2.40: Headed by Baltic Knight, this is a tough handicap. After an unlucky passage at Epsom last time behind Abseil (almost certainly would have been placed at worse) Velox will benefit from overnight or morning rain. If it arrives he could figure and, in advance of Havana Cooler, could initiate a big handicap double for his trainer.

3.15: There is a suspicion we have yet to see the best of Radiator, who ran better than her finishing position suggests in the Coronation Cup last time when only beaten just over three lengths by Rizeena. Ten furlongs might bring out her optimum; but she could easily take this en route to better things.
Narrowly defied at Royal Ascot in the Sandringham when a victim of an injudicious ride, Queen Catrine will be fancied by many to make amends here in the steady hands of Ryan Moore. Good run though that was it has to be said it does not quite equal that put up by Radiator, who looks primed to launch her season in style. Any rain will not inconvenience her.

3.50: In the first real clash of the generations the Coral Eclipse would be simple enough to evaluate if we knew for sure how the ground is likely to ride. As it stands, The Fugue is the obvious choice with Verrazano appealing as the biggest danger. A winner of two Grade One events in America over 1m 1f, this trip should suit the imposing Verrazano who is the interesting contender but his best form is on a fast surface. A ground-changing downpour could alter everything and would obviously bring Kingston Hill into the reckoning. With the addition of Guineas winner Night Of Thunder, this promises to be an intriguing contest but one that is difficult to call at present.

4.25: Assuming the ground eases, Whiplash Willie – whom connections have been patient with – gets his chance to add to a Salisbury success this term and an excellent third in the Henry II Stakes over this course in May. Serial monkey Repeater took an oft-rare interest in proceedings last Saturday in the Northumberland Plate when making up a great deal of ground from the rear and has the right man on top to generate further enthusiasm. Striking while the iron is hot, he is not ground-dependent and can put up a bold show.

SANDOWN FRIDAY JULY 4TH

2.00: This may turn out to be one of the harder races on what otherwise appeals as a punter-friendly card. The short-list from this quarter consists of Normal Equilibrium, last year’s winner Doctor Parkes and New Fforest. Of this trio New Fforest is best drawn and after two runs this season should be approaching her peak. She is given narrow preference on fast ground she has shown she can handle. Course specialist Tagula Night looks better with some juice.

2.30: Although the Norfolk at Royal Ascot turned into a nonsense of a contest as a result of the blistering early pace set by Mukhmal, Snap Shots, who was three lengths in front of the tiring trailblazer, is taken to confirm placings. Beacon’s two wins to date suggest he has more to find against stiffer opposition.

3.00: After promise in two maidens at Newbury and a narrow defeat over this trip last time, it should be third time lucky for Mustadeem now. Tom Hark shaped well at Kempton but, despite finishing fourth to a useful sort, was beaten a fair way and this looks a tougher assignment. New Brunswick could be best of the newcomers but the experience gained by Mustadeem should be crucial.

3.35: Having been denied the rub of the green since winning at Meydan in January (desperately unlucky in the Winter Derby), Windhoek gets the perfect chance to recover the thread now returned to his best trip. A tough and durable sort, his main danger, Educate, has a bit to find with the selection on a line through Robin Hood’s Bay and in any event will need to be at his best after an absence of three months.

4.10: After a major effort at Epsom when raised in class, connections have been patient with the progressive Air Pilot and that attitude can pay off in this Class 3 handicap. Although he may not want rattling fast ground, it can be inferred this is a hand-picked target. Vital Evidence should overturn form with Chain Of Events from last time and is seen as the chief danger.

4.45: A step up in trip looks ideal for the stoutly-bred Economy who has shaped with plenty of promise so far. By Dalakhini out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, it is possible this ground may ride on the fast side; therefore delaying betting tactics are advised until it can be assessed how he goes to post. If the surface looks okay, he threatens to prove too good for these rivals.

SATURDAY JUNE 27th:

Despite the frantic urgings of those with vested interests in the gambling side of the racing game, not every Saturday appeals as a betting day. Doubts over the ground, some events that have attracted the dodgy brigade and an Irish Derby with a long odds-on favourite are among the components that comprise a lukewarm day for the players.

NEWCASTLE: Northumberland Plate: This may not be so hard to solve as the numbers suggest, but to a degree the Lord giveth with one hand and taketh away with the other.

Chester Cup form is represented by the winner Suegioo and the runner-up Angel Gabrial. Whilst they have chances, there is the suspicion that they may be vulnerable to a couple of contenders that have yet to play their aces this year. Chief of these could easily be a maturing Van Percy, who in winning at Newmarket last time demonstrated this trip may bring out further improvement. By Sir Percy, there is every chance he will progress further and he is taken to confirm form with Tropical Beat, who, taking his excellent rider’s valuable claim into account, Van Percy meets on only 3lbs worse terms. His stable’s chosen representative here over four-day accepter Whiplash Willie, a big run is envisaged; the only downside being his wide draw (Tropical Beat is similarly disadvantaged), which could be his undoing if the race does not unfold in his favour.

Several line up with the look of horses that have been laid out for this – notably the two Irish challengers, Willie Mullins’s hard-to-evaluate Lucky Bridle, and Dark Crusader from the always dangerous Tony Martin yard. She ended last season in a listed race at Ascot after winning the Melrose Handicap at York when Van Percy was behind. Not seriously campaigned since (been running over inadequate trips), Dark Crusader returns with conditions more to her liking, providing she is not inconvenienced by the likely firm ground.

In the belief the ground will ride quick and that Oisin Murphy has demonstrated on numerous occasions this year what a good tactical brain he possesses, a chance is taken with Van Percy – who, although far from a good thing, is regarded as the best opportunity on the day. Dark Crusader could emerge as the biggest threat.
NEWMARKET: 3.30: As things stand, fast ground is against most of the field in this Group 3. Unless overnight rain or morning showers alter the complexion of the Newmarket track, Penitent, Top Notch Tonto, Garswood, Gregorian, and to a lesser extent Eton Forever would all be better served by ease in the ground. This leaves us with the unreliable Tawhid, Highland Colori – who has flashes of firm ground form – and Indignant, who will be suited by a fast surface, but, progressive though she appears, has something to find. One for Confused Dot Com!

WINDSOR: 3.40: On the assumptions that the penalty is likely to beat Ocean Tempest, that speedily-bred Free Wheeling looks more a seven furlong horse and Custom Cut – who has not won since April of last year and seems better on an easy surface – are opposable, this may concern Short Squeeze, who had the worst of the draw in the Hunt Cup, and Baltic Knight, who returns to his optimum trip.

The Irish Derby presents an obvious opportunity for Australia to double-up on his Epsom success. Only the advent of rain would detract from his chance, in which case, now we know he stays the trip, Kingston Hill could emerge as a serious threat.

Royal Ascot – Saturday

2.30: Chesham Stakes: One way or another the boys from Ballydoyle have a grasp on this. Dick Whittington clearly holds a solid form chance on the strength of his running with Coventry runner-up Capella Sansevero and looks a decent prospect. The added fact that they have bought into the American colt Cordero further underlines their possible hold here and the market should be a reliable guide. In a race likely to be dominated by Irish interests, Toscanini is seen as the third runner.
3.05: Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes: Although very likeable and still on the upgrade, Arab Spring may struggle from this revised mark (8lbs higher than his latest win at York) which means he is set to carry 9st 10lbs. Actually, in a compressed handicap it is not quite as bad as it appears at first glance, but this is still a stiff task. Confidence in Hamelin emanates from Lady Cecil’s yard and having shaped well here last month, as another improving contender that receives 8lbs from Arab Spring, he is taken to come out on top.

3.45: Hardwicke Stakes: Back on decent ground and up to a more suitable trip, Telescope gets his chance to shine in what is a sub-standard Group 2. The main danger is probably his stable companion Hillstar, but this is Telescope’s race to lose.

4.25: Diamond Jubliee Stakes: Switched to sprinting, Aljamaaheer was unfortunate at Newmarket but still showed plenty of acceleration to shut down Hamza in the Abernant Stakes. Ridden more prominently now he will be hard to beat and carries a good deal of stable confidence. Dangers abound – most of them, like Aljamaaheer and likely favourite Slade Power, appear to have been unlucky with the draw (based on results seen so far), meaning the majority of the action could be down the centre of the track. Astaire was superb in defeat against older horses at York and crucially is stripped of his Group 1 penalty for this race. After his excellent second to Maarek that day, he served notice he would be a major force at sprint level this season. As his namesake did all those years ago in grainy black-and-white, he can raise the Top Hats.
5.00: Wokingham Stakes: This is a fiercely competitive handicap and maybe it would be the ideal time to take a punting break.

5.35: Queen Alexandra Stakes: Over the extreme trip of 2m 6f (less a few yards), this is no walk in the park and obviously the ability to stay this far is of paramount importance. On the premise that Whiplash Willie has a better chance of lasting than Tiger Cliff – whom he has already beaten this season when third to Brown Panther at Sandown – he is given a tentative vote. A progressive three-year-old in 2011, injury meant he was absent until May of this year when he returned in style with a win at Salisbury. He seems to have escaped the bounce factor as he followed that win up with his excellent third in the Henry II Stakes later in the month. Really quick ground could be a worry though for a horse that has encountered problems in the past.

Tiger Cliff had the turn of foot to win an Ebor and there has always been a slight doubt about him seeing out farther than two miles. Others that may play a part in this last-man-standing contest include Royal Irish Hussar and Pique Sous.

Royal Ascot – Friday

2.30: Albany Stakes:
Following no more than an average start at Newmarket, Bazzana was a convincing winner at Windsor, suggesting she had improved considerably and the booking of Ryan Moore – who could have ridden several others in preference here – looks significant. She may come out best of a bunch of unexposed fillies.

Bitter Lake took the eye on debut but, although a visually appealing winner, the form from that race has taken a couple of knocks. Her stable companion, Elite Gardens was another to make a pleasing debut when beating colts at Newmarket in May; again that form has yet to be endorsed.

There are no doubts about the merits of Patience Alexander’s York form – in beating Queen Mary runner-up Tiggy Wiggy, she lines up here with top class credentials. However, a sixth furlong could alter today’s outcome.

Appleberry was noted staying on stoutly that day and it is not impossible this trip may enable her to overturn that form. She could surprise at a price.

American raider Sunset Glow has to be respected in what looks a hard opening event.

An adventurous and small each-way bet on Appleberry could be the answer.

3.05: Wolferton Handicap:
As you would expect this is a hot handicap; the likelihood being that quality will rise to the fore. With top weight, Just The Judge has plenty on her plate against some tough opponents. Contributer does not look particularly well-treated but his class means he could still be a contender despite an indifferent draw. Soft ground was against him last time at Sandown and that run should not be taken literally.

Dick Doughtywylie has been given a chance at the weights. A tricky customer on occasion that seems to reserve his best for the Polytrack these days, he could still be in the mix.

After an eye-catching run at Newmarket, Bold Sniper has the look of a horse laid out for this and is another with a definite chance.

Baltic Knight completes the short list and is another that looks to have been groomed with this in mind. If he lasts out a truly run ten furlongs there is every reason to suppose, following a decent run last time at Goodwood last time he will go close.

In a tight race, Contributer and Baltic Knight are suggested as the two to be with against the field.

3.45: King Edward VII Stakes:
Saddled with a 3lbs penalty, Italian Derby winner, the unbeaten Dylan Mouth demands respect. The same applies to lightly-raced Adelaide – who will be out to maintain the Antipodean theme for his stable. With one-time Derby fancy Snow Sky and Derby sixth Western Hymn (runners from Epsom have a poor record in this) also in the field, this is a hard race to evaluate.

4.25: Coronation Stakes:
My Titania makes her belated appearance now following a bad scope prior to the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and unsuitably soft ground before the Irish equivalent.
A top class two-year-old (she beat Oaks runner-up Tarfasha at the Curragh in September) that her stable has always hailed from the rooftops, she now gets her chance to prove her worth in Group 1 company.

1000 Guineas form from both sides of the Irish Sea is represented by Lightning Thunder, whilst Lesstalk In Paris – a disappointment in the French Guineas but a good second in the Marcel Boussac on Arc Day – flies the Tricolore.

It is hard to be enthusiastic over either Rizeena or Lucky Kristale on what we have seen this term. Tapestry checked out very quickly at Newmarket and although she looks capable of progressing to better things, Radiator does not convince that she is as yet up to Group 1 standard.

The word for My Titania makes her the selection.
5.00: Queen’s Vase: On this ground, Marzocco and Century appeal as the two most likely to emerge on top. Marzocco narrowly missed out on two Classic trials (Epsom and Goodwood), whilst Century has not had his favoured surface since winning first time as a juvenile at the Curragh. There were definite signs of better to come at Chester however in the Dee Stakes when a staying on fourth to Kingfisher and this looks like an ideal target race for this son of Montjeu.

Hartnell looks like an old-fashioned stayer but, being by Authorized, this faster surface threatens to count against him.
5.35: Buckingham Palace Stakes: We conclude with a fiercely competitive handicap. Watchable has a good form chance but as a son of Pivotal with all his best form on soft, his chance seems compromised by the likely surface. Russian Realm looks a safer option but confidence is tempered by the complexity of the race.

Royal Ascot – Thursday
2.30: Norfolk Stakes: It has all been a bit of a game so far for The Great War who trotted up over this trip in his two outings to date. The form is not top level but the manner of his wins suggests he can go on to better things. He gets his chance here. By the American stallion War Front – bestowed with considerable faith by the Ballydoyle team – The Great War looks ready to enter the battle zone.
Mukhmal is a likeable and willing sort whose Chester form looks solid. He and Woodcote winner Baitha Alga line up with similar credentials but the O’Brien representative is expected to confirm considerable promise so far shown.
3.05: Tercentenary Stakes: Cloudscape’s win at Newmarket from Windshear and Oak’s third Volume makes good reading – the problem is he has failed to build on it on two subsequent runs. He may also be better with give underfoot.
Postponed is another that ran with a great deal of promise at Newmarket first time, but failed to step forward next time.
The decision to step Barley Mow up in trip appears to have paid dividends and he is another that at present dangles on the edge of Group class. Again, he may appreciate a drop of rain.
The progressive Cannock Chase looks the least complicated selection. A line through Windshear puts him in the mix here and as he appears to be steaming forward at a rate of knots he may provide the answer to a cracking contest.
3.45: Ribblesdale Stakes: Inchila and Vazira split the betting here having both performed creditably in Group 1 company last time. However those coming here from the Oaks do not have the best of records in this; it is often won by a filly waiting to step out of the shadows.

The two most likely to fit that category are Wonderstruck and Bright Approach. Wonderstruck created a favourable impression at Newmarket last time in a maiden but takes a major hike in class here. Almost certainly we have not seen the best of Bright Approach who won first time at Newbury when only having done one piece of work and was found to be in season after finishing third in the Cheshire Oaks. With her pedigree there are no stamina doubts and she gets her chance to hog the spotlight.
4.25: Gold Cup: Aidan O’Brien has a great knack of getting horses to relax, something that is essential when it comes to stepping into the unknown which is the two-and-a-half miles in a Gold Cup. St Leger winner Leading Light has been earmarked for this race for some time and a winner of the Queen’s Vase here last year, his class threatens to prove crucial.

Fellow irish challengers Royal Diamond and Pale Mimosa are entitled to improve on their debut runs of the season behind Leading Light, but still have it to do to beat him.
The ground is against Tac De Boistron and Brown Panther, both of whom may struggle in any case against a rival that was thought good enough to run in last year’s Arc.
It is asking a lot for Estimate to win this on her first run of the season and against stronger opposition than she encountered last year.

500: Britannia Stakes: Idea could be the answer to this tricky handicap, although the handicapper reacted sharply to his latest win (achieved after showing definite promise at York) when slapping on an extra 10lbs. Even so he appeals as another from this powerful stable that is likely to continue progressing.

5.25: King George V Stakes: Time may show the improving Windshear was set a mammoth task last time against Cannock Chase, who is given every chance in the Group 3 earlier on the card. From a handicapping point of view he is not out of this but his wide draw is a worry. Elite Army is closely weighted with Windshear and a latest win at Newmarket, when he won despite taking a fierce hold early, confirms he is moving in the right direction. However, by Authorized this ground may be on the fast side for this heavy-topped colt. Wrangler is another that may benefit from rain.

Although a maiden (this is not the best place for horses to open their accounts), after four runs in good company and accorded a chance by the handicapper (well treated with Windshear on two-year-old form for example), with a good draw and on ground that should not pose a problem, a chance is taken with Venezia.

ROYAL ASCOT – WEDNESDAY

With the running of the Hunt Cup and three races confined to fillies, traditionally this can be the hardest day of the meeting. This year is no exception…
2.30: Jersey Stakes: This can often be one of the betting races of the meeting – this year confidence is tempered. After finishing fourth to Karakontie in the French Guineas, Muwaary is the sort this race is tailor made for; however, although there is no doubting his latent ability, he has a tendency to pull hard in the early stages, which threatens to cost him dear. Even though he took a tug early at Longchamp, he was only beaten less than two lengths. If his energy can be harnessed, he ought to be too good.

Progressive types are spearheaded by That Is The Spirit, Musical Comedy and Redbrook. Aeolus and possibly Big Time are others with claims in a race that a settled Muwaary ought to win, but that he may throw away if he gets lit up beforehand.

3.05: Queen Mary Stakes: Again, with the main protagonists spanning America, England and Ireland, this is a hard puzzle to decipher. What we do know is that Spanish Pipedream [USA] has speed to burn judged on her debut at Keeneland. Tiggy Wiggy [England] lost her unbeaten record in a listed event at York but recovered the winning thread last time when beating colts in the National Stakes at Sandown. Anthem Alexander [Ireland] impressively gobbled up a Tipperary maiden without seemingly turning a hair and could be anything. These look the main contenders, but it would not be the biggest surprise if the pack contained a joker or two.

3.45: Prince Of Wales’s Stakes: Probable firm ground would not inconvenience Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician. He can make Treve pull out all the stops. In contrast to Magician, the Arc winner’s best form has all been on easy ground. Looking at her pedigree [Motivator out of an Anabaa mare] this is understandable and the likely surface may bring these two close together.

Second to Al Kazeem in this last year, it may be a similar story for Mukhadram again, whilst fillies Dank and The Fugue face stiff but not impossible tasks.
Magician has a solid chance of overturning Treve, who may struggle this season to live up to what on the face of it, was a blistering performance in last year’s Arc de Triomphe.

4.25: Duke Of Cambridge Stakes: The presence of Sky Lantern and Integral – who fought out the finish of last year’s Sun Chariot at Newmarket – means the standard is set firmly at Group 1 level. Esoterique’s Dahlia win at Newmarket this year [beating Integral] means she is entitled to enter the equation. Outside of the obvious, Purr Along is an improving sort who looked impressive in victory at the Curragh last time. No stranger to Group 1 company, she could be in the peak of condition now and poised to run a major race.

5.00: Royal Hunt Cup: Abseil won at Epsom last time like a horse ready for a step up in class. Time may show he is up to listed or even Group standard; even so, he is still immature. Clearly he has a favourite’s chance, but red hot handicaps such as this – chock-full of dangers – often prove to be graveyards for such candidates.
5.35: Sandringham Handicap: An ultra tough handicap for fillies rounds off the second day. Only the informed or the optimistic will be looking to play here.

Royal Ascot – Tuesday

2.30: Queen Anne Stakes: As always we are presented with a hot renewal of a curtain-raiser to this historic and prestigious meeting. And once again the ground may play its part in the outcome. Whereas Toronado and Anodin seem at their best with a little give underfoot, Verrazano thrives when it is lightning fast. These are seen as the three dominant runners; as it stands – on an easy surface – the supplemented Anodin looks the value on the strength of his second to Cirrus des Aigles in the Prix d’Ispahan at the end of May, when Lockinge winner Olympic Glory was back in fourth. However, that represented a step up on anything hitherto achieved and may flatter Goldikova’s full brother to an extent.
Toronado – a winner first time out as a juvenile and again at three – is reportedly in great shape and carries maximum confidence from his powerful stable. His price does reflect that and although a serious player on his best form, he seems plenty short enough considering he put in two poor performances out of five last season. His run when fourth in the Guineas was never explained away and his appearance in the Juddmonte was no more than that. A hard puller in the early stages, he was beaten after a furlong. Clearly his defeat of Bright Approach and Declaration Of War in the Sussex represented the other side of the form coin. He may roar back to his best and beyond, in which case those availing themselves of tight odds will surely be crowing.

A dual Grade 1 winner in America before being sold to the Ballydoyle boys, Verrazano shaped with a great deal of promise on his first run in this country when a never-nearer third to Olympic Glory in the Lockinge. Not asked a serious question that day, he has the look of a quality performer capable of making his mark at this level. Apparently he has thrived since Newbury and promises to line up a different proposition now. In fairness he will need to be to repel the strong challenges that Toronado and Anodin threaten to provide and it could be prudent to wait until he is guaranteed to encounter his favoured surface later in the season.
Whilst prepared to see Toronado bolt up, Anodin is seen as real value at his current double-figure price.
3.05: Coventry Stakes: Irish form could be the key here. Many will turn to the listed race at Naas won by Kool Kompany, where a less vigorously-ridden War Envoy was a length away in third. It is entirely possible the placings will be reversed now; it is also possible that visually impressive Curragh listed winner Capella Sansevero will beat them both, as a line through Toscanini [split Kool Kompany and War Envoy at Naas] suggests he can. He is the selection in a race that can be a rough-and-tumble affair and is often claimed by those with experience.

Dual winner Adaay represents the best of the home team.
3.45: King’s Stand Stakes: Last year’s one-two Sole Power and Shea Shea re-oppose but this is far from a two-horse affair. With the ground and trip ideal for Shea Shea it is likely he will avenge what many saw as an unlucky defeat, but his newly acquired habit of starting slowly and getting adrift early threatens to make matters tough in such company.

Likely favourite Hot Streak and Guerre – representing the younger generation – are not without chances; but the much improved Steps, who was desperately unlucky at Epsom in the Dash, has to enter calculations. In the form of his life and with the trip and a breakneck pace in his favour, he looks poised to run well and can spring a surprise at big odds.

4.25: St James’s Palace Stakes: This looks like a two-horse war between Kingman and Guineas winner Night Of Thunder. After such an imperious performance in the Greenham, it was a surprise to most onlookers that Night Of Thunder was able to reverse places at Newmarket. Kingman – impressive since at the Curragh in the Irish equivalent – is taken to avenge that defeat in what we all know by now was a strong renewal of the Newmarket Classic.
5.00: Ascot Stakes: This is summed up by one word: Hard. Okay, Perfect Heart, Lieutenant Miller and Ballinderry Boy have leading chances but carry no secrets. It is not difficult to construct cases for many in opposition, chiefly for Villa Royale who is thriving at present and seems well suited by a step up in trip and should handle this sort of distance.

5.35: Windsor Castle Stakes: All speed and equipped with first-time blinkers, Hootenanny, a winner in Keenland, if able to flash out and run straight and true up the stands’ rail, can take this for our American friends. A decent showing from Adaay in the Coventry would obviously bolster the chances of Mind Of Madness, who looks as if this return to five furlongs will suit.

SATURDAY JUNE 14th:
A strong summer of sport awaits – obviously events in Brazil dominate Saturday and next week is Royal Ascot. The hand of apathy hovers over Saturday’s meetings; York’s card is tricky and serious bets look thin on the ground elsewhere. Even so …
SANDOWN:

1.50: After a luckless run at Goodwood on his latest outing, now on better ground, although no good thing, Gothic holds a favourite’s chance in the opening handicap.
2.55: After an impressive win in a handicap last time at York the handicapper has raised G Force by a whopping 16lbs – effectively stating the son of Tamayuz was worthy of a five-length victory that day. Allowing for the fact he did win by half that distance, a rise that on the face of it may seem unreasonable is justified. Providing the draw can be overcome (G Force pounced late last time which would be in his favour here), he looks poised to make the transition into deeper company. An equally poorly drawn Perfect Blessings is seen as the main danger. For future purposes, it may pay to keep a close eye on Merletta, who could be capable of winning something akin to this when sharpened up and when her stable are in better form.

4.40: Obsidian looked a sure fire future winner on his Newbury debut behind Connecticut in what could be the pivotal race from a form perspective. This could be his day; however, less than two lengths behind him in seventh place and denied a clear run, New Story is open to equal improvement and is worth a saver at least.
MUSSELBURGH: 3.35: Body And Soul must have every chance of plundering Scotland’s big prize after a narrow defeat last time at York. The ground should be ideal, but the jury is out about a fast five.

FRIDAY JUNE 13TH:
There is plenty of racing scheduled for Friday, with Sandown, Goodwood and York supplying the major meetings.
York’s three-year-old handicap at 2.30 is the most interesting from a betting perspective as CONNECTICUT looks reasonably treated from a mark of 84 in this his first venture in a handicap. Admittedly the form from the maiden he won at Newbury looks shaky, but his debut run at Newmarket looks solid, meaning the handicapper had to make a decision as to which run to home in on. Possibly he has been uncommonly lenient. It could also be significant Connecticut’s shrewd handler has decided to take up this engagement in a handicap rather than try his luck at Royal Ascot in the King Edward.

A line through Venzia means there should be little to choose between Connecticut and Tabreek but, in the belief that improvement should be forthcoming from Connecticut, he is expected to exploit his mark.

SATURDAY JUNE 7TH – EPSOM – DERBY DAY
All the signs are that this year we are presented with a vintage renewal of the Derby. It is not always so. Often Derby Day can be just another glittering occasion on a Saturday afternoon. The race itself is not always the defining factor. The accolades, the big money and the keys to the kingdom are gained at the breeding barns long after the roar of the crowds has subsided.

Since the turn of the century there have been fourteen renewals. Of these six have resulted in winners of the highest quality – five of them incidentally were trained in Ireland. Sindaar was a good winner in 2000. Galileo was outstanding in 2001; his presence is still felt in the shape on his progeny today. High Chaparral was a better racehorse than he was stallion, a remark that applies to the only English-trained winner in this truncated roll call, Authorized in 2007. New Approach and Sea The Stars were on the verge of greatness in their respective years – 2008 and 2009.

So it has been five years since a winner truly fulfilled his destiny. Possibly Galileo’s son, Australia, will propel himself to further glory. Certainly his third in an outstanding – if somewhat perplexing Guineas in terms of its actual result – represents the best form on show. Since then his work has confirmed he stands on the brink; all he has to do now is prove it on the track. Only a trick of fate in the form of a rainstorm beforehand is seen as a negative. On good ground, Australia has just about everything in his favour. After a lack-lustre build-up Kingston Hill was only four lengths behind him at Newmarket and any rain will be seen as a bonus. Although looking as if he will benefit from a step up in trip, being by Mastercraftsman, twelve furlongs may test his stamina limitations to the full. Such a statement as regards the trip applies to Dante second Arod. Looking burly at the Curragh for his reappearance, having been impeded in running and now 3lbs better off with the two rivals that beat him, Geoffrey Chaucer is expected to overturn form with Fascinating Rock and Ebanoran. It is a measure of the strength of depth in the field that Chester Vase winner Orchestra is the third-string from Ballydoyle. In a normal year Western Hymn and True Story (particularly after The Grey Gatsby boosted the Dante form in the French Derby on Sunday) would be serious candidates, but this does not look a normal year. Unless the weather scuppers his chances, Australia should prevail.

The rest of the card:
1.35: As always this is a tricky handicap chock-full of potential improvers. Chief of these could be Black Shadow, who will need some juice in the ground to show his best. Despite defeat in the Lingfield Derby Trial, Double Bluff should not be written-off back in a handicap.

2.05: A spin round Chester should see Ballymore Castle in good stead for what is a corkscrew experience for a juvenile. He looked surly that day and Ryan Moore had to reach deep into the genie’s bottle of tricks to win. In what is a winnable event, this is Ballymore Castle’s race to lose.

2.40: There are reasons to oppose the monster that is Cirrus Des Aigles here as this is undoubtedly not his best trip. Last year’s Oaks winner Talent has to be a contender as is the improved mare Ambivalent. Add Empoli (if he consents to start) and last year’s Grand Prix du Paris winner Flintshire and there are enough contenders to make life difficult for the highest rated runner, who does not have his ideal conditions here.

3.15: The sudden death that is the Dash poses its usual knotty problems. Pace will be crucial from the outset and Tangerine Trees may just turn back the clock with conditions in his favour. New Fforest starts the year from a decent enough mark and should also go well.

4.00: The Derby.

4.50: Stomachion will be popular to follow-up on last week’s Newmarket success. However, it may pay to side with Miss Marjurie, who, taking his excellent rider’s claim into account, will run unpenalised for a good second to Mighty Yar at Newmarket last month.

5.25: A hard day culminates with another tricky handicap. It is entirely possible that one-time useful juvenile Lewisham is well-treated now, particularly after a good run at Thirsk three weeks ago. In good hands and from a decent draw, he may dig a few of us out of a deep pit.

EPSOM FRIDAY JUNE 6th – OAKS DAY:
1.35: Appropriately Ladies’ Day opens with a Group 3 for fillies. Won last year by Thistle Bird, she must have a good chance of following up after a satisfactory run at York three weeks ago on her return to action. To do so she will need to reverse form with Odeliz on the same terms and with Mango Diva with a 3lbs weight pull. The small penalty incurred by Mango Diva may prevent her from winning this; but we are dealing with fillies that can make inordinate improvement. The picture is further complicated by the inclusion of Just The Judge, who would have strong claims if able to reproduce the Group 1 form she displayed at this time last year.

2.10: What could be an unforgettable weekend for Andrea Atzeni – who rides Kingston Hill in the Derby – begins here with another plum ride in Farraaj. Handicap company represents a drop in grade for Farraaj, who shaped well from the same mark on his latest outing in a similarly competitive Newmarket race on his latest outing. He threatens to be on the premises once again. Course specialist Resurge will find this line-up much tougher than the one he faced when winning last year. Tres Coronas, Aussie Reigns and Soviet Rock are respected but not unduly feared, although Air Pilot could be well-treated and looks dangerous. Second to the vastly improving Clever Cookie at Doncaster before just lasting at Thirsk over 1m 4f (a trip that appeared to test his stamina), a mark of 83 offers him with a real chance and he is seen as the prime stumbling block to Faaraaj in a race where it may pay to take two against the field.

2.45: Only seven turn up for this Group 3. With the exception of the penalised duo Highland Knight and Penitent (who will need to buck trends to beat better rivals carrying 3lbs extra) and Edu Querido, the bottom four on the race card make this a tightly-knit contest. Last year’s winner Gregorian, who was subsequently highly-tried and not disgraced in Group 1s, will be hard to beat if back to his best. French Navy beat the likeable and improving Windhoek last time, but heavy ground may have been instrumental in that success and today’s surface threatens to overturn the form. Having successfully conceded 3lbs to French Navy at Ascot last time, the improving Graphic has the best of the argument at the weights but in the absence of any real clue in what is not a straightforward event, it may pay to sit this one out.

3.20: After such a good reappearance at Chester when second to Here Comes When – who went on to run with credit in a Group 3 next time – Abseil will be a popular selection in this handicap from only a 1lb higher mark. With the third horse (Pacific Heights) a winner next time, the Chester form looks solid. Taken out of a similar event last week at Sandown to avoid very soft ground, providing there are no unexpected cloudbursts the potentially smart Abseil looks the one to be with now. Velox and Spirit Of The Law (back to a winning mark) are seen as the biggest threats.

4.00: So often stamina is the final obstacle fillies face in their equivalent of the Derby. For that reason the classy Amazing Maria, who is subject to positive home reports but has to be a dubious stayer, and Irish 1000 Guineas winner Marvellous (by Galileo but suspect stamina on dam side) are overlooked. Taghrooda has a pedigree to die for in this and has looked useful at worst on her two outings to date. This trip should suit but further improvement is needed after the devalued form of her Pretty Polly win at Newmarket, which did look flaky at the time. Musidora winner Madame Chiang will certainly stay the trip and also races on her favoured surface. However she lacks the class of several rivals and a place may be the best she can hope to obtain. There was a lot to like about Volume’s latest win at Newbury and, a guaranteed stayer that will need to improve again, she is taken to spring a surprise and provide Richard Hughes with back-to-back Oaks winners.

4.45: Winner of only one race (his debut maiden) Parbold, second in the last year’s Coventry, has made a meal of getting his head in front since despite some realistic targets. He is accumulating a worrying list of excuses. Judging by the way he appeared to be taken off his feet over six at Haydock last weekend, this trip will be in his favour. Even so, the less complicated That Is The Spirit, who was a comfortable and emphatic winner of a York handicap three weeks ago, is seen as a much safer proposition.

5.20: Not all has gone according to plan with Kafeel but he looks temptingly weighted in this concluding handicap and may be worth taking a chance with for those that find themselves in a hole.

GOODWOOD: 6.35: Aledaid created a favourable impression on debut at Newbury and it will take a smart debutant to lower his colours now.

Thursday May 22nd

Goodwood: 2.40: As a son of Danehill Dancer, GOTHIC was never going to be suited by conditions at Sandown last time when fourth to Windshear. Facing an easier assignment now and on a more suitable surface he is taken to recover the winning thread. Fast Delivery was too free at Nottingham when runner-up in a contest that did not look particularly good at the time and that has so far failed to work out. A facile win at Wolverhampton has done nothing to advance his claims in this much more complex event.

3.15: They appear to have found a good opportunity for LION BEACON who, despite a non-staying pedigree, looks ready for a step up in trip after narrowly going under over 1m 7f last time.

Sandown: 5.55: Experience is taken to count here as after a decent debut at Windsor, RUSSIAN HEROINE gets her chance against a couple of attractively-bred first timers.

SATURDAY MAY 17th:

Newmarket: 2.55: Whether Aeolus would have won the Free Handicap with a clear run is debatable; what is beyond dispute is that the form of that event is strong and as a horse on the upgrade, he gets the clear scent of black type now in this listed event. He is taken to overpower Toofi and the consistent but somewhat exposed Parbold.
3.30: Roger Charlton currently fields the front two in the market here. Stomp attempts a hat-trick but faces his stiffest task and may find his stable companion Stars Above Me presenting the biggest threat.
Newbury: 1.30: After a run brimming with promise at Newmarket, despite this looking a competitive maiden, Connecticut is the one to aim at and should be hard to beat.
3.15: Cannock Chase is the one to catch the eye here in this his first venture in a handicap from a mark of 89. Having easily won a Windsor maiden that has worked out embarrassingly well, he could be well-treated. Winshear has been hiked up 11lb since winning at Sandown and will do well to confirm that form with runner-up Collaboration, let alone carry off the prize. As always this threatens to be a tough handicap to win.
3.50: The JLT Lockinge sees the start of the Group 1 season. The form book states that Olympic Glory is at his best on soft ground and with it drying out by the hour, it seems conditions will swing away from him. Add to that a checkered history and he looks like a horse to oppose. This is not the strongest of fields but Verrazano has won approaching a million-and-half dollars in the States where he is a proven Grade 1 performer. This is his first venture on turf but if he is to justify the move to Aidan O’Brien, considering the money that must have changed hands, this represents a soft target and one he will need to make an impact in. Tullius seems best on an easy surface, a remark that clearly applies to Top Notch Tonto. Expect Montiridge to go close on this better ground, but Verrazano looks the horse to run down.
Aeolus and Verrazano appeal as the day’s best bets and worthy of investment.

FRIDAY MAY 16th:

Newbury: 2.00: Hadaatha justified a lofty home reputation when opening her account at the first time of asking at Newmarket in April. A filly with plenty of substance and with a stout pedigree, she should be even better now she steps up to ten furlongs. From a yard whose females can appear revved-up second time and even end up in a stew, it might pay potential backers to check her well-being at the start before making a financial decision.
4.45: After a narrow defeat by Shifting Power in the Free Handicap, if all goes well with Hadaatha, Mushir looks poised to complete a double for connections in this listed event. Shifting Power boosted already strong form when subsequently finishing fourth in the 2000 Guineas and Mushir, a smart unbeaten juvenile who looked as if the run would bring him on last time, is taken to play the speed card against some useful rivals now.
York: 2.45: Tac De Biostron and Gospel Choir threaten to dominate what is nevertheless a strong field for the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup. After two positive efforts this season, including when impressively disposing of better fancied rivals last time at Newmarket, in receipt of 4lbs the progressive Gospel Choir is preferred. Although not short of finishing speed, the son of Galileo should have no trouble with the extra yardage. He is a classy addition to the staying ranks.

YORK SPRING MEETING
MAY 15th:

2.45:
The majority of the Derby money, informed and otherwise, has been for Australia since the 2000 Guineas. By all accounts he has been tearing down the place at Ballydoyle and will line-up at Epsom carrying the confidence of his strong team.
For once Godolphin appears to have a credible alternative in True Story, who takes another step towards a possible showdown with Australia when contesting the Dante.
Based on the performance we saw in the Feilden at Newmarket, he should pass what is potentially a stiffer task now. Particularly impressive at Newmarket, aided by the Fallon touch at home and on the course, he could be Godolphin’s biggest chance of Epsom glory yet.
First things first as the son of Manduro will need to win impressively to warrant serious Derby consideration. No betting proposition at odds-on, True Story, returning to action last month after a nine month absence, should nevertheless make up for lost time in one of the week’s most intriguing trials.

3.15:
With conditions sure to suit and his yard in such good form, Fury is so well in at present he is hard to ignore here.
This listed handicap is competitive but a mark of 95 means Fury is thrown in at the shallow end. The booking of Ryan Moore is an added bonus.
Last year’s winner Navajo Chief has almost certainly been primed for another crack at this, whilst Ingleby Angel and Alfred Hutchinson (needs to transfer all-weather form to turf) are other possibilities, but a double-figure price about Fury is too tempting to resist.

3.50:
This conditions stakes represents a soft target for Middle Park third Justice Day, who ought to be too good for this opposition.

4.25:
In this six furlong contest where we have little to go on, representing stables that tend to send out their debutants firing on all cylinders, on paper the race looks to be between Gaudy and Silver Ranger. Both look certain to appreciate ease in the ground based on breeding.

YORK SPRING MEETING
MAY 14th:

It looks like the long lunches are out this week. York begins its three-day spring meeting on Wednesday and is joined by Newbury and Newmarket on Friday.
Soft ground is predicted for the opening day at York, and when it gets soft on the Knavesmire it can get very cloying. The first two events are tricky handicaps.
After a blank second-season and a run of some promise first time this year, Blaine could be well-treated in the 2.15. However, his pedigree and overall record does not give rise to encouragement on this sort of ground. Representing an in-form yard and with a run under his belt, Baccarat will handle conditions (draw to be okayed) so is probably a safer call, but there are numerous dangers – not all of them equine.

On a day likely to be dominated by those coping with conditions, impressive Kempton winner Queen Of Ice looks guaranteed to thrive on the ground in the Musidora at 2.45. An entry in the Ribblesdale indicates connections feel confident she will stay this trip at least. The way she made all last time (admittedly against three rivals where she was allowed to dominate) indicates stamina should not be a problem here. Cambridge is another that should have no ground excuses and, comparatively unexposed, she should confirm last year’s form with Regardez so long as returning match fit. Madame Chiang is another proven on the ground but Shama has a pedigree that suggests she may struggle. Although not a confident selection, Queen Of Ice is taken to come out on top.

3.15: As the winner of the Group 2 Gimcrack and Group 1 Middle Park last year, Astaire is the interesting contender in this Group 2 now that he reverts to sprinting. Although worth a shot, plainly the attempt at seven in the Greenham was beyond him and he will be more at home over this trip. Versatile as regards ground, he threatens to be too classy for these rivals, although according to my arithmetic, as a dual Group winner he is saddled with an 8lbs penalty. It is tough enough for three-year-olds to beat their elders at this time of year without the inclusion of such a steadier. Should his class prevail he will surely be tough to beat at the highest level later in the season. The durable Jack Dexter represents substance over style and will be hard to kick out of the frame on ground that suits. Maarek is another that will slosh through the ground and after a run over an inadequate five furlongs at Naas last time, despite his penalty, last year’s Abbaye winner looks sure to make his presence felt. Astaire may be the class act and the one to bag the most prize-money by the end of the season, but faces a tall order today.

3.50: Despite the presence of several lurkers at the foot of the handicap (Idea and Tea Leaf being the most obvious), it is conceivable that we may not have seen the best of Provident Spirit as yet. Closely matched with That Is The Spirit on Doncaster running, Provident Spirit was slow to stride that day and showed he had improved with an easy win at Newmarket next time. The race he won was not strong (runner-up beaten in ordinary company since) but the manner of victory was eye-catching. A big son of Invincible Spirit with plenty of scope, who won on ground that looked on the firm side at Newmarket, he has not been unduly assessed with a mark of 87. He could be too good for most of these.

The card ends with a hard-to evaluate two-year-old event and a tough-looking handicap that should have bookmakers rubbing their hands in anticipation.
In all, a day for caution…

TOTESCOOP SATURDAY
– MAY 10th:

HAYDOCK: 2.25: As always this is a trappy three-year-old handicap complicated by the inclusion of several unexposed types. Having won in style last time at Epsom, it appears we have not seen the best of Chatez as yet. Unless taking on a real tartar, a mark of 86 still gives him every chance in handicap company.

LINGFIELD: 2.20: Criteria has always appealed as a long-term project after what was a promising debut at Goodwood back in September last year. Although held by Casual Smile on a subsequent run at Newmarket later that month when both were behind the new Oaks favourite Tagrhooda on the same course, she has plenty of scope and this trip – over which she won at Kempton at the end of April – brings out the best in her. It could also be significant that stable jockey William Buick elects to come here to partner her rather than ride at Ascot.

2.55: The inclusion of two Aidan O’Brien runners [Mekong River and Blue Hussar] further complicates the colts’ Epsom trial. Munjaz duly won his maiden at Newmarket at the Craven meeting but as yet does not appeal as a horse with classic pretensions. Apparently Hartnell finished distressed at Epsom last time so should possibly be assessed on his other runs, in which case he should go close. This trip will pose no problems for him, whereas Sudden Wonder may find this stretching his stamina to the limit.

4.00: With a proven record on easy ground, the mere presence of progressive Dalayna from a powerful French stable is enough to strike fear in the hearts of her opponents. She looks a major player, particularly with a run already under her belt this year.

ASCOT: 2.40: After such a good run last week at Newmarket when runner-up to Gospel Choir, Pether’s Moon will be a popular proposition to many in the Listed Buckhounds Stakes. On the face of it there was nothing wrong with that reappearance, particularly as he had Trading Leather behind him. However, last year’s Irish Derby winner did pull himself out of serious contention early and, although only penalised by 3lbs, such an added burden threatens to stiffen this task. An on song Harris Tweed would pose a serious threat and Gatewood, although held by Area Fifty One on Doncaster running, has always left the impression he is better than we often see and that one day he will put it all together.

3.15: This stiff mile should suit Ribbons, whose comeback effort at Kempton in April suggested she would be hard to beat next time. This return to handicap company should suit her.

3.50: It may not be very original but after two excellent runs this season Brownsea Brink gets the call in a fiercely competitive Victoria Cup. A seven furlong winner that was third to Gabrial’s Kaka in the Newbury Spring Cup last time from this same mark, he has to be a leading player at least. Versatile as regards ground and, even with the aid of the valuable Oisin Murphy on board, he still has the beating of Purcell on Lingfield form. He is even drawn ideally in the middle so has plenty in his favour. Finding dangers is not difficult but a short-list of ten is no use to anyone. Granted a trouble-free passage, Brownsea Brink should go well.

CHESTER MAY MEETING – FRIDAY 9TH

Heavy rain has further complicated an already difficult meeting, so it is a case of being ultra-careful on the final day.
2.15: Century has a low and fast-ground action that found him out at Doncaster in the Racing Post and conditions will surely be equally unsuitable today. Stable mate Kingfisher has bits of form and is more likely to handle conditions after a half-decent effort in the Ballysax last time.
2.45: Before the advent of rain this looked a suitable target for Hillstar. As it is Mount Athos is probably a safer option.
3.50: Postscript, Gabrial’s Bounty and Gatepost all represent Dr Marwan Koukash and all have similar profiles in that they look to have been prepared for a crack at this. As they handle the ground, the market will be the best guide.

CHESTER MAY MEETING – THURSDAY 8TH

1.45: Squire Osbaldeston always appealed as the type to do better as a four-year-old. A typical Mr Greeley colt with plenty of substance, that impression was confirmed to an extent with what so far this year looks like an improved record. Although non-handicap form can be deceiving, his latest third to Contributer puts him in here with a solid chance. The handicapper’s reaction in raising him to a mark of 99 threatens to make life tough, but this is not a quality handicap. If he is to defy a revised mark he has a chance to do so in this company.
2.15: After running the opposition ragged at Sandown over this trip, Noble Mission has nothing to fear from Telescope on 3lbs worse terms. Or so you would think. Noble Mission’s past record does not exactly instil confidence that he will reproduce that and Telescope is entitled to improve for his first run of the season. Whether this trip of ten furlongs is the optimum for Telescope has yet to be determined and, as a big unit, the son of Galileo may also struggle with the constant turns of this track. The race is further complicated by the inclusion of Ektihaam, who just about brings the best form to the table. If fully tuned, he would be a serious contender.

2.45: Of course this was the race used to launch Ruler Of The World’s Epsom challenge and if they all stand their ground we once again should see a strong renewal of the Chester Vase. Having finished third in the Ballysax on only his second start, Carlo Bugatti lines up with the sort of profile we are used to seeing from a Ballydoyle representative. He could obviously turn out to be anything and it looks significant that jockey bookings suggest he carries the main hopes of the stable in preference to the promising Orchestra. Seagull Star looks the best of the home team.

3.50: Ballymore Castle took the eye on debut at Newbury and with an ideal draw gets his chance here.

CHESTER MAY MEETING – WEDNESDAY 7TH:

Here we are, the first two classics are behind us and now we start the countdown to Epsom. Although providing clues for the Derby and Oaks, the three-day Chester meeting is a great event in its own right and promises to supply a fine spectacle. Usual rules of engagement apply here; ideally you want a low draw and you do need plenty of luck in running.

As always the meeting starts with the Lily Agnes for juveniles at 1.45. Accorded 9lbs for one-and-a-half lengths with Mukhmal on their running at Musselburgh, the well-drawn Cheerio Sweetie will be popular to gain amends. Ease in the ground should also be of benefit to this daughter of Captain Rio. Several opponents are difficult to assess though. Roudee could be useful in this grade and better was expected of Magical Memory at Newbury in an event that usually throws up a winner or two. It would be nice to hit the ground running, but at this stage a section looks elusive.

The heavy battalions are present in the Cheshire Oaks, Aidan O’Brien looking likely to supply the favourite in Terrific, who is bred to appreciate this step up in trip. Thus far her form is average at best but we all know how fillies can bloom at this time of year so her presence alone is sufficient to instil caution. Although less likely to improve markedly for the trip, Psychometry is a filly with plenty of potential in her second season. Bright Approach’s Newbury form has been franked and as she was not fully tuned that day and will appreciate this trip, is another live danger. Brown Diamond is interesting. Fourth to Oaks favourite Taghrooda in September and then an eye-catching finisher at Newbury in April behind Matalleb and Mutakayyef (who almost denied Barley Mow and several high-profile rivals in a listed event at Newmarket last week), a step up in trip looks likely to suit. If coping with this distance of eleven furlongs, this Oaks and Ribblesdale entry looks classy enough to make her presence felt. Again this is not cut and dried but Brown Diamond could represent value.

The Chester Cup is never easy – this year being no exception. Favourite Mubaraza has a record of running well without winning and looks a weak finisher. That was certainly the case last time at Ripon when he failed to find much after looking the likely winner for most of the way. In any case that form with Angel Gabrial may need improving upon. There is a word for Glenard and course winner Communicator – who is fit after four runs from the turn of the year and represents a yard in sparkling form – ought to go well. Although poorly drawn, the fit Shwaiman, always liked by his yard, and who may be capable of better than we have so far seen, is another to respect.

The Class 2 handicap over five furlongs is another tricky contest. The two to take the eye are Ballesteros –whose last win came here two years ago and ran with some promise last time – and another course and distance winner in Ballista, wearing first time cheek pieces. The draw may scupper Ballesteros – who in any case will want soft ground – whereas Ballista has the look of a horse trained with this in mind.
3.50: Presently we are in the dark as to the worth of the run of Prince Of Stars in the Wood Ditton. The winner looked okay but several in behind raise questions. In any event, there is little to choose between him and Computer. Ghosting’s third at Kempton reads well, but he has been gelded since, wears a hood and a tongue-tie so something of a leap of faith is required for would-be backers.

4.25: Well drawn Lucky Beggar has a favourite’s chance of winning this without looking like a good thing. Trinityelitedotcom looks a worthy alternative in a sprint that could go one of several ways.

5.00: Although he managed to get himself beaten at 1/3 at Lingfield, Anglo Irish has not looked back since, winning two races, including a handicap of only moderate merit last time. A mark of 82 is not prohibitive in what looks like a moderate affair that nevertheless still includes a couple with pretensions to better than we have so far seen.

NEWMARKET – SATURDAY MAY 3RD:

It’s four in the afternoon, the beginning of May.
I’m writing you now just to see if you’re better.
Newmarket is chilly but I like the view cross the Heath.
They serve Adnams and Banks beer through the evening…
In a missive that is primed to break all known rules associated with racing reports, I have started strongly. Some might complain I have already lost their attention along with my marbles. Experts will tell you such posts as the one that follows should only contain three hundred words at most. Admit it; with the allocation of almost a third of my so-called permitted content you are already perplexed. Join the club, most of us wander around permanently perplexed. Do it for long enough and they consign you to a home and feed you clear soup that dribbles down your chin.

Let me therefore explain to the handful of you that are left. It is the Newmarket Guineas meeting on Saturday – but then, being a racing feature, I am guessing you knew that. The opening four lines I chose to use to illustrate that fact are made in homage to Leonard Cohen, who, as far as I know, has nothing whatsoever to do with Newmarket or betting on horses in general. Although, to digress even further, the lyrics of Dress Rehearsal Rag do include the line: Ah, but I thought you were a racing man!

That aside, the lines that introduce this piece are a loose transcript of his excellent and darkly bewitching song: Famous Blue Raincoat. For those in low spirits after events on Saturday, both works of brilliance mentioned feature on Leonard’s CD, Songs Of Love And Hate. Listen to those, Avalanche and Love Calls You By Your Name and your lives may never be the same again!

In an article when I am breaking as many rules as it is possible to break and remain in gainful employment, not having mentioned a horse after, what, at least four-hundred words – it is my intention to go the whole hog. Normally race evaluators sit on the fence as much as possible. Let’s face it, no one wants to look a fool and horses are no respecters of reputations. Most of them fashion a career out of making fools of everyone they come into contact with. Say something won’t win and it will just to spite the one making the prediction. Say it is a certainty and it might begrudgingly oblige, but only after the would-be soothsayer has shed half a stone in liquid weight from his brow.

So for those of us doing the predicting, circumspection (no, circumspection does not involve the use of a scalpel) is the order of the day. Not on this occasion! What follows is X-rated stuff. Move over Leonard, pass the razor blade, I am alongside you.

In another time, if wrong I would risk the stocks or an ordeal by fire – only escaping with my life if right. In itself that is not a good bet. Heads you don’t win, tails you lose. Mercifully, times have changed!

Herewith the secrets of Newmarket’s card tomorrow: The skies are darkening ominously as I write but it is too late now. The die is cast. The pyres are being built; the axe man is sharpening his utensil. Tickets are changing hands for the ceremony at exorbitant rates. Even for those that draw a betting blank, on Saturday, in the event of my failure there is something to look forward to…

3.10: The angle here is to oppose second-favourite Pengai Pavilion whose main claim to fame is his fifth in the Arc behind Treve. As fine an example of Monsun as you will find, he ran as if capable of better at Meydan on World Cup night when fifth in the City Of Gold behind Excellent Result, Songcraft and Mount Athos. That and his Arc effort are fair runs but don’t equate to anything so far achieved by last year’s Irish Derby winner Trading Leather, who, although on past performances needs a run or two before operating at full throttle, is likely to be fuelled-up for this Group 2. Tougher assignments loom later in the year. Trading Leather is not only the obstacle the Godolphin representative faces. Gospel Choir served notice he would be a force in these sorts of events after shaping with promise in the Earl Of Sefton over an inadequate nine furlongs. Although 10lbs behind Trading Leather on official figures, the best of him is yet to be seen. The same remark applies to the highly progressive Brass Ring who is plunged into the deep end after winning a Lingfield handicap from a mark 90 from subsequent winner Viewpoint. Obviously other options exist, yet connections feel confident Brass Ring can acquit himself with credit in exalted company, which is a distinct possibility. So his and the presence of Gospel Choir makes the apparently simple less so.
3.50: The 2,000 Guineas – and the ground appears to have come right for Kingman who, after the performance of his life at Newbury in the Greenham, lines up as the dragon to slay. Australia carries the sharpest lance. Actually, the word is that its point is sharper than one of Leonard’s razor blades. The rhetoric emanating from Ballydoyle – with its intense bloodstock interests it often publicly floats on castles of air – is that we are not dealing with a windbag here. If, as word has it, Australia has the speed to win one of the most competitive Guineas in recent years, we might as well gift him the Derby now and save everyone else the bother. Toormore, Charm Spirit, the notoriously lazy worker that is War Command (ten lengths behind Australia on his latest breeze-up), Outstrip, Noozhoh Canarias and even Ertijaal all have claims, are not slow and are not racehorses as a second career. But apparently they face a monster.

To complete the portfolio, word has it that, even allowing for the fact he is not prone to exert himself in the morning, Racing Post winner Kingston Hill is more inclined to read the paper in the mornings than contribute to its headlines. The current score at his stable is: Tiddles the cat six – Kingston Hill nil!

So it’s AUSTRALIA. Kingman is a fair favourite but the obvious is not always the answer.

A second and equally appealing betting opportunity presents itself an hour and ten minutes later in the Newmarket Stakes where we see the reappearance of Craven third Postponed. Having looked like a possible Group 1 contender after freewheeling home behind Guineas candidate Toormore over a trip patently short for him, the son of Dubawi gets his chance to confirm that impression over this trip of 1m 2f. Of course he takes on the highly likeable Cloudscape, whose form from the same meeting when beating subsequent Sandown winner Windshear reads well and makes him a serious adversary. However, if POSTPONED is to become the horse he has looked on more than one occasion, he should be up to beating the respected but, as yet, comparatively unproven (at least in this company) Cloudscape. On a day when I am wearing a hat emblazoned with the words DOGMATIC – I suggest, in a race that is hotter than a vindaloo on a Friday night, the rest, decent though they may be, can be disregarded.

So there it is: the man that is temporarily out of range acquires bravery beyond his mettle. Between now and that last pint of Adnams I have a couple of answers. I only hope I turn out to be a prophet of fortune rather than doom…
Threatening letters to the usual address in Switzerland please…

GRAND NATIONAL DAY

SATURDAY APRIL 5th

It might be the Grand National but to the professional gambler it is just another horserace. As such it is treated accordingly.

Professionals dissect races they are interested in, reducing the field to those that in their opinions can win and eliminating those that can’t. Once they have stripped the field bare, they take a look to see if they can narrow it down further until they might be left with a handful of serious runners and hopefully the winner.

To do this the professional assessor has to take an opinion and not to be frightened to be wrong. Remember, the man who is worried about being wrong is very often never right. Fence-sitting is for politicians and civil servants.

So herewith my own version of Saturday’s big race: The Crabbie’s Grand National.

Forty are scheduled to line-up, which may include one or more of the four reserves. With the chances of many of the runners looking remote at best, let’s see if we can turn forty into ten. To do this we have to adopt a ruthless approach, but it can be done and result in a pot of gold. After all, a ten-runner horse race where bookmakers are offering 8/1 the field drastically shifts the odds in favour of the punter.

These are the runners from my viewpoint, and you may be surprised by some of the exclusions.

TIDAL BAY:

Has to buck age and weight trends to win. Carrying top weight of 11st 10lbs and at the age of thirteen, he faces a Herculean task – but since joining the excellent Paul Nicholls he has seemed better than ever.

Gone are the moods, the tantrums and the quirky traits that for so long made him a dubious betting proposition. A colossal effort under top weight in the Welsh Grand National in December was followed up by an honourable second in Ireland in a Grade 1 early in February. Rested since, he cannot be disregarded. The most likely scenario is that he will finish in the first six but that his weight will anchor him. Even so, he will expose weaknesses in many of his rivals.

LONG RUN:

Is the one horse in the line-up that will have us muttering in our beards – and beers – how obvious it was when he wins.

As a dual King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner that is only nine and runs from a lower mark than when he rattled up the first of those Kempton wins in 2011, the handicapper has opened the door for him now.

Representing the all-powerful Nicky Henderson stable, he can be relied upon to have been well prepared for this task. Although his jumping is not always bombproof, he will have been schooled over replica Aintree fences at home and is the sort to rise to the occasion.

His excellent rider emphasised his worth over these fences when winning the Fox Hunter Chase on Thursday and, granted a smidgen of luck and on this drying ground, he could be too classy despite his burden.

ROCKY CREEK:

Completes the trio of classy horses not normally associated with this event. Second in the Hennessy at Newbury in November on only the first of two runs this season, he should line up as a fresh contender that has been prepared with this in mind.

The ground will be ideal and, having never fallen in twelve chases, his jumping has already withstood the test of time. He may have a few pounds too many in the handicap but his class is undeniable and if he is one of three or four at the last, he is the one lesser rivals will have to pass.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE:

Holds more of a technical chance than a realistic one. But efforts here (in the Betfred Bowl and when winning as a novice) and in Ireland in top company suggest at his best he could go well. This is his time of year.

DOUBLE SEVEN:

Something of a dark horse that has progressed through the ranks in Ireland and is catapulted into the big time now. On what he has achieved his mark seems fair and he could easily surpass it. Two doubts remain. He has yet to prove he stays this far – a remark that applies to many – and his jumping can still be a little dicey at times. However, don’t let that put you off too much. This course has a habit of focusing the sloppy but talented horse and as the choice of Tony McCoy he could not be in better hands. Even so he is a bit of a guess.

BURTON PORT:

And talking of guesses, enter this one-time RSA second and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up, whose last win was in the Mildmay Chase here in 2010 when rated 152. Having slipped to a mark of 145, clearly a return to anything approaching that form would make him a blot at the weights.

The problem is, since then he has suffered a leg injury and, at the age of ten, he gives the impression the best is behind him. However a reasonable effort in a veterans’ event last time gives some cause for optimism for his supporters although he will need to find more now. Given his connections that is not impossible and success is not a total pipe dream.

PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE:

Another with a chance on his best form but that seems to be over the horizon and far away these days. However, he does have a dash of class if he can recover it (latest run suggests he is no back number) and would be dangerous if crossing the last alongside a bunch of camels.

LION NA BEARNAI:

Is another that will need to wind the clock back to win. However this former Irish Grand National has already shown he can grind it out when others are crying enough. Weighted to the hilt but ridden by a jockey at the top of his form, if it turns into an old-fashioned National going to the last man standing, one of the more likely ones.

THE PACKAGE:

Creeps in to this with an attractive weight and is another that could test his rivals if it turned into a slog from the last. Fell at the nineteenth here on his previous visit in 2010 and has a patchy record since. Lines up on the back of a decent comeback run at Cheltenham last month. Possibly a place is the best he could obtain, but on his best form does have a chance.

ROSE OF THE MOON:

Risky but credible outsider that could outrun his odds. He completed the course when running in the Becher Chase in December so may be capable of making some sort of impact at these weights.

That is my shortlist, which excludes several currently fancied runners. Why?

Let’s take Teaforthree. He was third off a 3lbs higher mark last year, but has not won in his three runs since – admittedly including a run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when out of his league. However, this year’s race is potentially a much better renewal than last year so he is unlikely to better his position now and could easily struggle to even maintain it.

Monbeg Dude is an old-fashioned staying chaser that peaked in December at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 handicap from an 8lbs lower mark. Life is tougher now and he has plenty to do with Teaforthree on old form. Balthazar King would be a popular winner for Richard Johnson but on his last visit here he burned himself out by tearing off too quickly. Again, his qualities seem confined to staying or cross-country events where the vast majority of his opponents are geriatric or slow.

I have attempted to include outsiders, but essentially I see the race concerning the class acts, who may dominate. Not all will cross the last in a line, but one of them at least is likely to slip the tangled net of misfortune and drama that could foil their bids.

Assuming I have highlighted the right ten runners, this is how bookmakers might price up the race should the other thirty not be taking part:

3/1 LONG RUN
4/1 TIDAL BAY
9/2 ROCKY CREEK
7/1 DOUBLE SEVEN
10/1 BURTON PORT
16/1 QUITO DE LA ROQUE
16/1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
16/1 LION NA BEARNAI
20/1 THE PACKAGE
33/1 ROSE OF THE MOON

These odds are based on a 110% book. Okay, allow a few points on the prices for error and add or subtract at your discretion. But the value plainly appears to lie with the three market leaders: Long Run, Tidal Bay and Rocky Creek. Currently available at 14/1 or even a shade bigger for looking, Long Run is the selection.

Tomorrow is not solely about the Grand National, although, of course, for many it is the only race in town.

AINTREE: 1.30:

A cracking Grade 1 novice event kicks off the card. Over this trip of 2m 4f, Volnay De Thaix looks sure to improve. A tenuous form line through Splash Of Ginge suggests he may have something to find with Dell’ Arca; however, he has been brought along steadily for this event whereas it could be argued Dell’ Arca comes here after a busy campaign.

2.05:

Trifolium gets a chance for consolation for what was a big effort in the Arkle. His class shines through here and only an off day would prevent him beating lesser rivals.

2.50:

Racing gets distinctly harder after this, the last of the Grade 1 events at the meeting. Whilst At Fishers Cross lines up with solid credentials after a shaky start to the season, Whisper is the horse improving through the ranks. He has only a little to find on these rivals and can throw his hat into the ring with a massive performance now.

LINGFIELD

Exchequer should open his account in the 1.15. After three promising runs as a juvenile, including when second to Kingston Hill, this should be an ideal stepping stone on the way to better things.

3.40:

Barley Mow should win this but American Hope shaped well two weeks ago when a staying on second to the highly-regarded Ertijaal. This trip will suit and he has an improving profile and the right pedigree to test the favourite, who may be sharper on another occasion.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY TWO (Friday)

(posted Thursday 4.15pm)

2.00: International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices’ Hurdle:

Although never heralded as being at the top of the novice tree within the powerful Nicky Henderson camp, Josses Hill has quickly scaled the heights after his novice win, competing in Grade 1 company on his remaining two runs and finishing runner-up on each occasion. His second to Vautor in the Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham is the best form on offer here and his habit of finding for pressure makes him the one to beat now.

Sergeant Reckless was only one-and-a-half lengths away in fourth at Cheltenham having made up a great deal of ground from an unpromising position. However, his habit of running in snatches may find him out round here. Art Of Payroll and Baltimore Rock are seen as bigger dangers.

2.30: Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices’ Chase:

Despite a small field, all six in the line-up have claims of sorts. RSA winner O’Faolains Boy takes a long time to warm up. As a hard ride that is invariably on and off the bridle, he may find this quick track far from ideal.

The progressive Holywell and Wonderful Charm (who can probably be forgiven an on the face of it below par run last time when hampered at Cheltenham) look less complicated rivals.

Many Clouds was never in a comfortable rhythm last time at Cheltenham in the RSA and that run is best overlooked. On the strength of his effort at Ascot when a two-and-half length runner-up to O’Faolains Boy conceding 4lbs he enters the reckoning once again.
A bold front runner, he will be suited by this track and a big run is expected. Holywell is taken to complete the four-timer. Although not without chances, Don Cossack and Just A Par look less likely winners than the remaining four.

3.05: Betfred Melling Chase:

Module and Rajdhani Express come here on the back of two excellent efforts at Cheltenham and both will have their supporters.

The question those looking to play here will have to ask is which run was the better: Module’s third to Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother Chase over what looked like an inadequate trip, or Rajdhani Express’s third to Dynaste in the Ryanair?

Both will have to operate at maximum strength to win, but taken as an overall package Module has a more tempting profile and is the selection.

Although as a Grade 1 the composition of the field leaves something to be desired, the opposition makes up more than numbers and is not that far adrift from the standard set by the two principals. Once again, this is not a cut-and-dried event to solve.

3.40: Crabbie’s Topham Chase:

As always, run over the Grand National fences, we are presented with a knotty problem here. Currently bookmakers are betting 10/1 the field, which seems an accurate enough assessment.

Ma Filleule recovered with real spirit to come back from an error last time at Cheltenham when only going down narrowly to Holywell. Raised 7lbs since, she may still be able to propel herself into the firing line once more but this race is fiercely competitive.

4.15: Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle:

This trip of three miles will expose any stamina limitations. For that reason, having looked to find 2m 6f too far at Thurles last time, Giantofaman is bypassed. Beat That shapes as if likely to stay, whereas Capote and Seeyouatmidnight – both of whom have been saved for this meeting – have already won over today’s trip. Others enter the reckoning, making this a hard race to call.

The middle day of this three-day festival always threatened to be the hardest to crack and that is how it looks. Josses Hill and Module are nominated as the best chances on the day from this quarter but are not necessarily advanced as bets.

It is tempting to oppose O’Faolains Boy in the Mildmay. Holywell may provide the biggest danger but Many Clouds should not be dismissed lightly. And that is the metre of the day, which is constructed of races that are hard to solve in one hit. After a near miss with Diakali on Thursday, it looks like it is all to play for on Saturday…
Good luck with your selections.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY ONE (Thursday)

Here we go once again for the rollercoaster that is Aintree. With four Grade 1s on the first day card, backed up by two competitive handicaps and the hunter chase that is the Foxhunters, there is something for everyone…

2.00:

Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle: All eyes will be on Calipto here after a catalogue of disasters in the Triumph Hurdle. Beaten eight lengths at Cheltenham, his misfortune started at the second when he was impeded and was then compounded when a stirrup leather snapped at the top of the hill.

After the race most observers claimed he looked unlucky and would have arguably beaten Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete but for the intervention of bad luck.

Such thinking can be dangerous: time and again the form book has the last word; although, there is a suspicion that Calipto may re-write a part of it now. We shall see… Guitar Pete has run to a similar level all season and looks guaranteed to be in the mix once again.

A little over three lengths behind Calipto at Newbury on his hurdling debut, Actival has been saved for this. After his authoritative win in the Adonis at Kempton he is not far short of the best of his age and could be the biggest danger to Calipto. On the face of it the three mentioned appear to be the runners, although the improving Fox Norton could enter calculations. Whilst respecting Calipto, Actival looks the logical each-way alternative.

2.30: Betfred Bowl:

So often this event can throw up a surprise. Such a scenario looks unlikely this year as Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti stand out – the inference being one or the other must come out on top. Narrow preference is for Dynaste.

To a degree Argocat is the dark horse that is open to improvement. Even so he has plenty to find if he is to figure. The remaining three will need to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. Last year’s winner First Lieutenant is the scavenger waiting to steal the scraps. He invariably runs his race but can only be considered if the front two underperform; whereas neither Menorah nor Houblon Des Obeaux have shown form approaching this level.

3.05: Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

After Calipto in the opener, The New One is the second so-called unlucky Cheltenham loser to line up here. With a trip likely to play to his strengths, after the setback on Boxing Day at Kempton and the broadside he received in the Champion Hurdle, this is his chance.

Fearful of an avalanche of bets in his favour, bookmakers have priced him up as if he is a near certainty. As a result they have overlooked the wild card that is Diakali, who is available at a tempting 12/1 with Coral as I write and 9/1 elsewhere.

Surely these odds are out of kilter with the horse’s chance. The Willie Mullins representative ran a massive race at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle under top weight and his two-and-a-quarter length third to Jezki – over this trip – in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse gives him a strict chance with the favourite, who was almost three lengths behind Jezki at Cheltenham after his much publicised troublesome passage. Those making a case for anything else (including Rock On Ruby) are liable to be barking up the wrong tree. In what is seen as a two-horse contest, even allowing for the fact that any attempt to bet each-way is likely to be thwarted (excludes each-way multiple bets though) Diakali has to be the call at the prices.

3.40: Crabbie’s Fox Hunter’s Chase:

No doubt those acquainted with hunter chaser form can nominate each-way alternatives to the favourite here; but, granted a clear round, the decision to re-route Mossey Joe for this instead of targeting the Grand National is likely to pay its own dividend. He is not perceived as a betting prospect for those of us that don’t don red coats and breeches on bank holidays, but looks a solid favourite.

4.15: Silver Cross Red Rum Handicap Chase:

History shows a shock is more than possible in this. Cutting through the opposition, Sound Investment has a progressive profile and could be the one to concentrate on for those bold enough to play. Claret Cloak blundered away his chance in the Grand Annual at the second-last but has been raised 4lbs for the privilege and faces a similarly stiff task today.

4.50: Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

Temperament and a sketchy past record means Arkle winner Western Warhorse will not be short of detractors here. Stepping up in trip to 2m 4f (might be a problem if he decides to take a tug), those intent on backing him will do well to do so at SP – which will surely outstrip current cramped odds. With two serious contenders in the shadows, many will nominate him as the lay of the day.
Uxizandre performed well at the Festival when second to Taquin Du Seuill in the JLT where Oscar Whisky tipped up at the first. Effective in small fields, Oscar Whisky claimed the scalp of Taquin Du Seuill at Cheltenham in January and it is entirely possible he will regain the winning thread here. Along with Uxizandre his presence means there will be no hiding place for the Arkle winner.

5.25: Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

This represents a precarious end to the day as far as punters are concerned. Principal contenders appear to be the Irish duo Jetson and Busty Brown.

Although hard to fancy, now returned to timber from a favourable mark, Riverside Theatre is the sort to represent Nicky Henderson with credit, whilst Doctor Harper is on the upgrade.

A case can be constructed for the appropriately named Spirit Of Shankly. In all, for those anxious to continue playing, the advice would be to lob a few quid on the last-named at a sporting price. The sensible advice from this befuddled corner would be to leave the race alone.

So from a betting perspective, although ideas may transmogrify once racing gets underway, at this stage I am nominating two value bets in Actival and Diakal.

Take it easy on what might be a trickier day than it looks…

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING 2014

(posted Monday evening 7pm)

This historic meeting kicks off on Thursday – and it is straight into top quality action with the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at 2.00. With Zarkandar, Walkon, Binocular, Katchit and Detroit City among winners in recent years, this is an event often claimed by an obvious contender.

Cheltenham Festival runners have a good record (seven out of the last ten have obliged). Many will be anxious to recover Cheltenham losses with Calipto, who was travelling strongly when his jockey became the victim of a slipping saddle in the Triumph.

He will doubtless be heavily supported to make amends but may have to face Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete for a second time.

Betfred Bowl Chase:

In contrast to the opening event, this is often won by the right horse on the right day. That is to say it can be a consolation prize.

This proved to be the case for the likes of First Lieutenant, Follow The Plan, Nacarat and Exotic Dancer – all of whom had been beaten at the highest level coming into the race. Even so they could be relied upon to produce their best form against higher profile rivals that came here after long seasons.

The Pipe stable has farmed four of the last ten runnings, and will field the favourite in Dynaste – who was a winner at this meeting last year.

Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

For anyone unaware of the name – Doom Bar is a particularly tasty bitter that is brewed in Cornwall. Those yet to acquaint themselves of this brew should redress such an oversight as soon as possible.

As for the race, it is the third of four Grade 1 events on the day. The key factor is the step up in trip for Champion Hurdle contenders that are now faced with 2m 4f.

For that reason it does not always pay to rely on Cheltenham form. Only two favourites have obliged over the last ten years (both of those joint favs) but that’s not to say the race favours outsiders.

Irish runners have a good record – they have won five of the last ten renewals. Assuming Annie Power will wait for Punchestown, many will consider this race to be tailor-made for The New One.

Crabbie’s Fox Hunters’ Chase:

Step forward the hero of the Aintree hour in Crabbies’, the alcoholic ginger beer manufacturer that has injected extra lashings of fizz into the meeting by their sponsorship.

This could be one of the races where spectators may want to avail themselves of their product as it invariably favours bookmakers over punters. Last year it was won by a 100/1 shot; in 2010 by a 50/1 chance. Otherwise three of the last ten runnings have resulted in a winning favourite, so the race can supply predictable results to a degree. It does help to have some knowledge of hunter chasing in general and, possibly more importantly, in a race where jockeyship can be paramount, of the riders involved.

Red Rum Handicap Chase:

One way or another, stand by for an unexpected result here. This handicap has thrown up three big price winners in the last ten years (two 20/1 chances and a 25/1 shot) as well as four winning favourites (including co-favs). It is invariably not an easy race to solve.

Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

With only five year’s results to go by, it is a little premature to pinpoint any real trends but so far this, the fourth of the Grade 1s on the day, has gone pretty much according to the script.

Captain Conan won it last year. Trainers Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have won two races apiece. Tartak, in the inaugural running in 2009, was the biggest priced-winner to date for his trainer Tom George.

Plenty will be prepared to oppose Arkle winner Western Warhorse here. Oscar Whisky should be more suited to this track than Cheltenham, but the Irish challenge is potentially a strong one.

Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

A tough three mile hurdle closes the day. This is one of the harder races to get right. Six of the last ten winners have returned at double-figure prices. To balance this out, the other four went to favourites. Unless you unearth a potential blot in the handicap – you know the risk you run when betting in events such as this.

Day Two:

The day starts with a Grade 2 novice hurdle over two miles sponsored by the International Festival for Business. Nicky Henderson has won the last two runnings, with My Tent Or Yours last year and Darlan before that.

With General Miller having supplied a win for Seven Barrows in 2010, Henderson, a top man at this track, will hope to be represented by Josses Hill this time. The opposition is potentially strong. If turning up, Arctic Fire and possibly Cheltenham flop Irving would count as two serious dangers.

It is back to a Grade 1 with the Betfred Mildmay Novices’ Chase. Five of the last ten favourites have obliged for punters, including Dynaste last year. He was preceded by Silvianco Conti in 2012. There have been no real shocks in this over the past ten years. Six of the last ten winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival. A small field seems likely this year.

The Grade 1 Betfred Melling Chase

appears on statistics to be one of the more punter-friendly races with five of the last ten events going to the favourite.

However, with a roll-call that includes top two-milers like Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded and Moscow Flyer, that figure could be misleading. There is nothing of that calibre in this year’s line-up, a race that could well suit Queen Mother third Module over this extended trip.

Topham Chase:

Fifty percent of the last ten winners have been double-figure big prices, which is hardly surprising considering they often bet 10/1 the field.

This is also something of an oddity of a race, being as it is run over the in-between trip of 2m 6f and over the Grand National fences. This can be one of the hardest races at the meeting to call, although that does not prevent punters from piling in.

Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Chase:

At Fishers Cross last year and Black Jack Ketchum in 2006 were the only winning favourites in ten years. There have been four big price winners of this Grade 1 over three miles – often run on quick conditions.

Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle:

Punters are often in need of medication after this has been run. There have been no winning favourites in the last ten years. Sunnyhill Boy at 8/1 was the lowest-priced winner in 2009. 2013 Grand National winner, Aurora’s Encore prevailed in 2008 at odds of 50/1. A race to be wary of.

Concerto Group Mares’ Standard NH Flat Race:

A Flat race for mares – what joy to bring down the curtain on the second day’s proceedings! Turbo Linn in 2007 is the only winning favourite to date. Bring on the Doom Bar!

Grand National Saturday:

Pertemps Network Novices’ Hurdle: Elevated this year to a Grade 1, again the trip of 2m 4f could be partly responsible for some big-priced past winners. Ubak surprised at 22/1 last year. Bouggler won at 16/1 in 2009 and Turpin Green was also something of a shock when winning in 2005 at odds of 14/1. Otherwise there have been three winning favourites and fancied winners in the shape of Simonsig in 2012, Spirit Son in 2011, Elusive Dream in 2008 and Tidal Bay in 2007. The overall impression is that this is a solvable contest if the field is right.

Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase:

Another Grade 1, this time over two miles. Several likely candidates are doubly engaged throughout the meeting, so at this stage it is a question of seeing who turns up.

A small field is likely. There have been five winning favourites in the last ten years – last year’s winner Special Tiara being the only blot in a race that otherwise favours punters.

Silver Cross Stayer’s Hurdle Grade 1:

At 11/2 in 2005, Monet’s Garden was the biggest-priced winner. Four-time winner Big Buck’s and dual-winner Mighty Man give this a wobbly shape as far as betting figures are concerned. More Of That would be popular if turning up; in his absence, At Fishers Cross (same ownership) would probably line up as favourite.

Having improved with every run this year, Whisper would be the dark horse.

And a word of possible interest here. Whisper’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, has an enviable record at this meeting. For that reason it pays to scrutinise his representatives carefully over the week. Bear in mind he is often successful with those runners that are not obvious and at first glance appear to hold only average chances. He often does well in the handicaps.

Betfred TV Handicap Chase:

Only the racing authorities could plan or sanction this!

Here we have a handicap chase over the Mildmay fences run as a curtain-raiser for the Grand National, fifty minutes in advance of the big race of the meeting. Don’t be surprised if there is a shortage of jockeys wishing to take part in this, or a shortage for their scheduled mounts in the Grand National after it. And be prepared for a turn up!

Crabbie’s Grand National:

To a degree luck plays a big part, although the right horse often makes its own luck in this. The poser set for punters is to nominate the right horse for the occasion.

Often first-timers to the track have the edge, so class acts like Rocky Creek and Long Run could be of interest this year.

Aged thirteen and carrying 11st 10lbs, Tidal Bay will have to buck sensible statistics to win.

The favourite, Tea For Three had his chance last year when third and faces stiffer competition this time round.

With a couple of better handicapped contenders (Godsmejudge and Same Difference) now absentees, but worth bearing in mind for events like the Bet 365 Chase at Sandown or the Ayr National, it could be a case of the cream rising to the top in the form of either of the two mentioned.

Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders):

Cockney Sparrow was a winning favourite last year, Lifestyle the 28/1 winner in 2013. The kind of event that could throw up anything! If you are not already in a queue to collect winnings from the Grand National, it could be you shouldn’t be in one to place a bet in this.

Weatherbys Private Banking Champion NH Flat Race:

With winners at 33/1, 50/1, 28/1and 20/1, the past results speak for themselves.

This is not a race for punters tempted to punch their way out of trouble. That said, if there is any cash left, Modus is better than his running at Cheltenham might suggest and is likely to take more of a hand at the finish now if turning up. He does have the four-year-old hoodoo to defy.

These are some preliminary thoughts and ideas for the coming week. We hope you find them useful and that they may help focus you in the right direction.

We shall be posting Free Tips for each day. They should be online by most evenings, commencing on Wednesday.

Good luck…