Thursday May 22nd

Goodwood: 2.40: As a son of Danehill Dancer, GOTHIC was never going to be suited by conditions at Sandown last time when fourth to Windshear. Facing an easier assignment now and on a more suitable surface he is taken to recover the winning thread. Fast Delivery was too free at Nottingham when runner-up in a contest that did not look particularly good at the time and that has so far failed to work out. A facile win at Wolverhampton has done nothing to advance his claims in this much more complex event.

3.15: They appear to have found a good opportunity for LION BEACON who, despite a non-staying pedigree, looks ready for a step up in trip after narrowly going under over 1m 7f last time.

Sandown: 5.55: Experience is taken to count here as after a decent debut at Windsor, RUSSIAN HEROINE gets her chance against a couple of attractively-bred first timers.

SATURDAY MAY 17th:

Newmarket: 2.55: Whether Aeolus would have won the Free Handicap with a clear run is debatable; what is beyond dispute is that the form of that event is strong and as a horse on the upgrade, he gets the clear scent of black type now in this listed event. He is taken to overpower Toofi and the consistent but somewhat exposed Parbold.
3.30: Roger Charlton currently fields the front two in the market here. Stomp attempts a hat-trick but faces his stiffest task and may find his stable companion Stars Above Me presenting the biggest threat.
Newbury: 1.30: After a run brimming with promise at Newmarket, despite this looking a competitive maiden, Connecticut is the one to aim at and should be hard to beat.
3.15: Cannock Chase is the one to catch the eye here in this his first venture in a handicap from a mark of 89. Having easily won a Windsor maiden that has worked out embarrassingly well, he could be well-treated. Winshear has been hiked up 11lb since winning at Sandown and will do well to confirm that form with runner-up Collaboration, let alone carry off the prize. As always this threatens to be a tough handicap to win.
3.50: The JLT Lockinge sees the start of the Group 1 season. The form book states that Olympic Glory is at his best on soft ground and with it drying out by the hour, it seems conditions will swing away from him. Add to that a checkered history and he looks like a horse to oppose. This is not the strongest of fields but Verrazano has won approaching a million-and-half dollars in the States where he is a proven Grade 1 performer. This is his first venture on turf but if he is to justify the move to Aidan O’Brien, considering the money that must have changed hands, this represents a soft target and one he will need to make an impact in. Tullius seems best on an easy surface, a remark that clearly applies to Top Notch Tonto. Expect Montiridge to go close on this better ground, but Verrazano looks the horse to run down.
Aeolus and Verrazano appeal as the day’s best bets and worthy of investment.

FRIDAY MAY 16th:

Newbury: 2.00: Hadaatha justified a lofty home reputation when opening her account at the first time of asking at Newmarket in April. A filly with plenty of substance and with a stout pedigree, she should be even better now she steps up to ten furlongs. From a yard whose females can appear revved-up second time and even end up in a stew, it might pay potential backers to check her well-being at the start before making a financial decision.
4.45: After a narrow defeat by Shifting Power in the Free Handicap, if all goes well with Hadaatha, Mushir looks poised to complete a double for connections in this listed event. Shifting Power boosted already strong form when subsequently finishing fourth in the 2000 Guineas and Mushir, a smart unbeaten juvenile who looked as if the run would bring him on last time, is taken to play the speed card against some useful rivals now.
York: 2.45: Tac De Biostron and Gospel Choir threaten to dominate what is nevertheless a strong field for the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup. After two positive efforts this season, including when impressively disposing of better fancied rivals last time at Newmarket, in receipt of 4lbs the progressive Gospel Choir is preferred. Although not short of finishing speed, the son of Galileo should have no trouble with the extra yardage. He is a classy addition to the staying ranks.

YORK SPRING MEETING
MAY 15th:

2.45:
The majority of the Derby money, informed and otherwise, has been for Australia since the 2000 Guineas. By all accounts he has been tearing down the place at Ballydoyle and will line-up at Epsom carrying the confidence of his strong team.
For once Godolphin appears to have a credible alternative in True Story, who takes another step towards a possible showdown with Australia when contesting the Dante.
Based on the performance we saw in the Feilden at Newmarket, he should pass what is potentially a stiffer task now. Particularly impressive at Newmarket, aided by the Fallon touch at home and on the course, he could be Godolphin’s biggest chance of Epsom glory yet.
First things first as the son of Manduro will need to win impressively to warrant serious Derby consideration. No betting proposition at odds-on, True Story, returning to action last month after a nine month absence, should nevertheless make up for lost time in one of the week’s most intriguing trials.

3.15:
With conditions sure to suit and his yard in such good form, Fury is so well in at present he is hard to ignore here.
This listed handicap is competitive but a mark of 95 means Fury is thrown in at the shallow end. The booking of Ryan Moore is an added bonus.
Last year’s winner Navajo Chief has almost certainly been primed for another crack at this, whilst Ingleby Angel and Alfred Hutchinson (needs to transfer all-weather form to turf) are other possibilities, but a double-figure price about Fury is too tempting to resist.

3.50:
This conditions stakes represents a soft target for Middle Park third Justice Day, who ought to be too good for this opposition.

4.25:
In this six furlong contest where we have little to go on, representing stables that tend to send out their debutants firing on all cylinders, on paper the race looks to be between Gaudy and Silver Ranger. Both look certain to appreciate ease in the ground based on breeding.

YORK SPRING MEETING
MAY 14th:

It looks like the long lunches are out this week. York begins its three-day spring meeting on Wednesday and is joined by Newbury and Newmarket on Friday.
Soft ground is predicted for the opening day at York, and when it gets soft on the Knavesmire it can get very cloying. The first two events are tricky handicaps.
After a blank second-season and a run of some promise first time this year, Blaine could be well-treated in the 2.15. However, his pedigree and overall record does not give rise to encouragement on this sort of ground. Representing an in-form yard and with a run under his belt, Baccarat will handle conditions (draw to be okayed) so is probably a safer call, but there are numerous dangers – not all of them equine.

On a day likely to be dominated by those coping with conditions, impressive Kempton winner Queen Of Ice looks guaranteed to thrive on the ground in the Musidora at 2.45. An entry in the Ribblesdale indicates connections feel confident she will stay this trip at least. The way she made all last time (admittedly against three rivals where she was allowed to dominate) indicates stamina should not be a problem here. Cambridge is another that should have no ground excuses and, comparatively unexposed, she should confirm last year’s form with Regardez so long as returning match fit. Madame Chiang is another proven on the ground but Shama has a pedigree that suggests she may struggle. Although not a confident selection, Queen Of Ice is taken to come out on top.

3.15: As the winner of the Group 2 Gimcrack and Group 1 Middle Park last year, Astaire is the interesting contender in this Group 2 now that he reverts to sprinting. Although worth a shot, plainly the attempt at seven in the Greenham was beyond him and he will be more at home over this trip. Versatile as regards ground, he threatens to be too classy for these rivals, although according to my arithmetic, as a dual Group winner he is saddled with an 8lbs penalty. It is tough enough for three-year-olds to beat their elders at this time of year without the inclusion of such a steadier. Should his class prevail he will surely be tough to beat at the highest level later in the season. The durable Jack Dexter represents substance over style and will be hard to kick out of the frame on ground that suits. Maarek is another that will slosh through the ground and after a run over an inadequate five furlongs at Naas last time, despite his penalty, last year’s Abbaye winner looks sure to make his presence felt. Astaire may be the class act and the one to bag the most prize-money by the end of the season, but faces a tall order today.

3.50: Despite the presence of several lurkers at the foot of the handicap (Idea and Tea Leaf being the most obvious), it is conceivable that we may not have seen the best of Provident Spirit as yet. Closely matched with That Is The Spirit on Doncaster running, Provident Spirit was slow to stride that day and showed he had improved with an easy win at Newmarket next time. The race he won was not strong (runner-up beaten in ordinary company since) but the manner of victory was eye-catching. A big son of Invincible Spirit with plenty of scope, who won on ground that looked on the firm side at Newmarket, he has not been unduly assessed with a mark of 87. He could be too good for most of these.

The card ends with a hard-to evaluate two-year-old event and a tough-looking handicap that should have bookmakers rubbing their hands in anticipation.
In all, a day for caution…

TOTESCOOP SATURDAY
– MAY 10th:

HAYDOCK: 2.25: As always this is a trappy three-year-old handicap complicated by the inclusion of several unexposed types. Having won in style last time at Epsom, it appears we have not seen the best of Chatez as yet. Unless taking on a real tartar, a mark of 86 still gives him every chance in handicap company.

LINGFIELD: 2.20: Criteria has always appealed as a long-term project after what was a promising debut at Goodwood back in September last year. Although held by Casual Smile on a subsequent run at Newmarket later that month when both were behind the new Oaks favourite Tagrhooda on the same course, she has plenty of scope and this trip – over which she won at Kempton at the end of April – brings out the best in her. It could also be significant that stable jockey William Buick elects to come here to partner her rather than ride at Ascot.

2.55: The inclusion of two Aidan O’Brien runners [Mekong River and Blue Hussar] further complicates the colts’ Epsom trial. Munjaz duly won his maiden at Newmarket at the Craven meeting but as yet does not appeal as a horse with classic pretensions. Apparently Hartnell finished distressed at Epsom last time so should possibly be assessed on his other runs, in which case he should go close. This trip will pose no problems for him, whereas Sudden Wonder may find this stretching his stamina to the limit.

4.00: With a proven record on easy ground, the mere presence of progressive Dalayna from a powerful French stable is enough to strike fear in the hearts of her opponents. She looks a major player, particularly with a run already under her belt this year.

ASCOT: 2.40: After such a good run last week at Newmarket when runner-up to Gospel Choir, Pether’s Moon will be a popular proposition to many in the Listed Buckhounds Stakes. On the face of it there was nothing wrong with that reappearance, particularly as he had Trading Leather behind him. However, last year’s Irish Derby winner did pull himself out of serious contention early and, although only penalised by 3lbs, such an added burden threatens to stiffen this task. An on song Harris Tweed would pose a serious threat and Gatewood, although held by Area Fifty One on Doncaster running, has always left the impression he is better than we often see and that one day he will put it all together.

3.15: This stiff mile should suit Ribbons, whose comeback effort at Kempton in April suggested she would be hard to beat next time. This return to handicap company should suit her.

3.50: It may not be very original but after two excellent runs this season Brownsea Brink gets the call in a fiercely competitive Victoria Cup. A seven furlong winner that was third to Gabrial’s Kaka in the Newbury Spring Cup last time from this same mark, he has to be a leading player at least. Versatile as regards ground and, even with the aid of the valuable Oisin Murphy on board, he still has the beating of Purcell on Lingfield form. He is even drawn ideally in the middle so has plenty in his favour. Finding dangers is not difficult but a short-list of ten is no use to anyone. Granted a trouble-free passage, Brownsea Brink should go well.

CHESTER MAY MEETING – FRIDAY 9TH

Heavy rain has further complicated an already difficult meeting, so it is a case of being ultra-careful on the final day.
2.15: Century has a low and fast-ground action that found him out at Doncaster in the Racing Post and conditions will surely be equally unsuitable today. Stable mate Kingfisher has bits of form and is more likely to handle conditions after a half-decent effort in the Ballysax last time.
2.45: Before the advent of rain this looked a suitable target for Hillstar. As it is Mount Athos is probably a safer option.
3.50: Postscript, Gabrial’s Bounty and Gatepost all represent Dr Marwan Koukash and all have similar profiles in that they look to have been prepared for a crack at this. As they handle the ground, the market will be the best guide.

CHESTER MAY MEETING – THURSDAY 8TH

1.45: Squire Osbaldeston always appealed as the type to do better as a four-year-old. A typical Mr Greeley colt with plenty of substance, that impression was confirmed to an extent with what so far this year looks like an improved record. Although non-handicap form can be deceiving, his latest third to Contributer puts him in here with a solid chance. The handicapper’s reaction in raising him to a mark of 99 threatens to make life tough, but this is not a quality handicap. If he is to defy a revised mark he has a chance to do so in this company.
2.15: After running the opposition ragged at Sandown over this trip, Noble Mission has nothing to fear from Telescope on 3lbs worse terms. Or so you would think. Noble Mission’s past record does not exactly instil confidence that he will reproduce that and Telescope is entitled to improve for his first run of the season. Whether this trip of ten furlongs is the optimum for Telescope has yet to be determined and, as a big unit, the son of Galileo may also struggle with the constant turns of this track. The race is further complicated by the inclusion of Ektihaam, who just about brings the best form to the table. If fully tuned, he would be a serious contender.

2.45: Of course this was the race used to launch Ruler Of The World’s Epsom challenge and if they all stand their ground we once again should see a strong renewal of the Chester Vase. Having finished third in the Ballysax on only his second start, Carlo Bugatti lines up with the sort of profile we are used to seeing from a Ballydoyle representative. He could obviously turn out to be anything and it looks significant that jockey bookings suggest he carries the main hopes of the stable in preference to the promising Orchestra. Seagull Star looks the best of the home team.

3.50: Ballymore Castle took the eye on debut at Newbury and with an ideal draw gets his chance here.

CHESTER MAY MEETING – WEDNESDAY 7TH:

Here we are, the first two classics are behind us and now we start the countdown to Epsom. Although providing clues for the Derby and Oaks, the three-day Chester meeting is a great event in its own right and promises to supply a fine spectacle. Usual rules of engagement apply here; ideally you want a low draw and you do need plenty of luck in running.

As always the meeting starts with the Lily Agnes for juveniles at 1.45. Accorded 9lbs for one-and-a-half lengths with Mukhmal on their running at Musselburgh, the well-drawn Cheerio Sweetie will be popular to gain amends. Ease in the ground should also be of benefit to this daughter of Captain Rio. Several opponents are difficult to assess though. Roudee could be useful in this grade and better was expected of Magical Memory at Newbury in an event that usually throws up a winner or two. It would be nice to hit the ground running, but at this stage a section looks elusive.

The heavy battalions are present in the Cheshire Oaks, Aidan O’Brien looking likely to supply the favourite in Terrific, who is bred to appreciate this step up in trip. Thus far her form is average at best but we all know how fillies can bloom at this time of year so her presence alone is sufficient to instil caution. Although less likely to improve markedly for the trip, Psychometry is a filly with plenty of potential in her second season. Bright Approach’s Newbury form has been franked and as she was not fully tuned that day and will appreciate this trip, is another live danger. Brown Diamond is interesting. Fourth to Oaks favourite Taghrooda in September and then an eye-catching finisher at Newbury in April behind Matalleb and Mutakayyef (who almost denied Barley Mow and several high-profile rivals in a listed event at Newmarket last week), a step up in trip looks likely to suit. If coping with this distance of eleven furlongs, this Oaks and Ribblesdale entry looks classy enough to make her presence felt. Again this is not cut and dried but Brown Diamond could represent value.

The Chester Cup is never easy – this year being no exception. Favourite Mubaraza has a record of running well without winning and looks a weak finisher. That was certainly the case last time at Ripon when he failed to find much after looking the likely winner for most of the way. In any case that form with Angel Gabrial may need improving upon. There is a word for Glenard and course winner Communicator – who is fit after four runs from the turn of the year and represents a yard in sparkling form – ought to go well. Although poorly drawn, the fit Shwaiman, always liked by his yard, and who may be capable of better than we have so far seen, is another to respect.

The Class 2 handicap over five furlongs is another tricky contest. The two to take the eye are Ballesteros –whose last win came here two years ago and ran with some promise last time – and another course and distance winner in Ballista, wearing first time cheek pieces. The draw may scupper Ballesteros – who in any case will want soft ground – whereas Ballista has the look of a horse trained with this in mind.
3.50: Presently we are in the dark as to the worth of the run of Prince Of Stars in the Wood Ditton. The winner looked okay but several in behind raise questions. In any event, there is little to choose between him and Computer. Ghosting’s third at Kempton reads well, but he has been gelded since, wears a hood and a tongue-tie so something of a leap of faith is required for would-be backers.

4.25: Well drawn Lucky Beggar has a favourite’s chance of winning this without looking like a good thing. Trinityelitedotcom looks a worthy alternative in a sprint that could go one of several ways.

5.00: Although he managed to get himself beaten at 1/3 at Lingfield, Anglo Irish has not looked back since, winning two races, including a handicap of only moderate merit last time. A mark of 82 is not prohibitive in what looks like a moderate affair that nevertheless still includes a couple with pretensions to better than we have so far seen.

NEWMARKET – SATURDAY MAY 3RD:

It’s four in the afternoon, the beginning of May.
I’m writing you now just to see if you’re better.
Newmarket is chilly but I like the view cross the Heath.
They serve Adnams and Banks beer through the evening…
In a missive that is primed to break all known rules associated with racing reports, I have started strongly. Some might complain I have already lost their attention along with my marbles. Experts will tell you such posts as the one that follows should only contain three hundred words at most. Admit it; with the allocation of almost a third of my so-called permitted content you are already perplexed. Join the club, most of us wander around permanently perplexed. Do it for long enough and they consign you to a home and feed you clear soup that dribbles down your chin.

Let me therefore explain to the handful of you that are left. It is the Newmarket Guineas meeting on Saturday – but then, being a racing feature, I am guessing you knew that. The opening four lines I chose to use to illustrate that fact are made in homage to Leonard Cohen, who, as far as I know, has nothing whatsoever to do with Newmarket or betting on horses in general. Although, to digress even further, the lyrics of Dress Rehearsal Rag do include the line: Ah, but I thought you were a racing man!

That aside, the lines that introduce this piece are a loose transcript of his excellent and darkly bewitching song: Famous Blue Raincoat. For those in low spirits after events on Saturday, both works of brilliance mentioned feature on Leonard’s CD, Songs Of Love And Hate. Listen to those, Avalanche and Love Calls You By Your Name and your lives may never be the same again!

In an article when I am breaking as many rules as it is possible to break and remain in gainful employment, not having mentioned a horse after, what, at least four-hundred words – it is my intention to go the whole hog. Normally race evaluators sit on the fence as much as possible. Let’s face it, no one wants to look a fool and horses are no respecters of reputations. Most of them fashion a career out of making fools of everyone they come into contact with. Say something won’t win and it will just to spite the one making the prediction. Say it is a certainty and it might begrudgingly oblige, but only after the would-be soothsayer has shed half a stone in liquid weight from his brow.

So for those of us doing the predicting, circumspection (no, circumspection does not involve the use of a scalpel) is the order of the day. Not on this occasion! What follows is X-rated stuff. Move over Leonard, pass the razor blade, I am alongside you.

In another time, if wrong I would risk the stocks or an ordeal by fire – only escaping with my life if right. In itself that is not a good bet. Heads you don’t win, tails you lose. Mercifully, times have changed!

Herewith the secrets of Newmarket’s card tomorrow: The skies are darkening ominously as I write but it is too late now. The die is cast. The pyres are being built; the axe man is sharpening his utensil. Tickets are changing hands for the ceremony at exorbitant rates. Even for those that draw a betting blank, on Saturday, in the event of my failure there is something to look forward to…

3.10: The angle here is to oppose second-favourite Pengai Pavilion whose main claim to fame is his fifth in the Arc behind Treve. As fine an example of Monsun as you will find, he ran as if capable of better at Meydan on World Cup night when fifth in the City Of Gold behind Excellent Result, Songcraft and Mount Athos. That and his Arc effort are fair runs but don’t equate to anything so far achieved by last year’s Irish Derby winner Trading Leather, who, although on past performances needs a run or two before operating at full throttle, is likely to be fuelled-up for this Group 2. Tougher assignments loom later in the year. Trading Leather is not only the obstacle the Godolphin representative faces. Gospel Choir served notice he would be a force in these sorts of events after shaping with promise in the Earl Of Sefton over an inadequate nine furlongs. Although 10lbs behind Trading Leather on official figures, the best of him is yet to be seen. The same remark applies to the highly progressive Brass Ring who is plunged into the deep end after winning a Lingfield handicap from a mark 90 from subsequent winner Viewpoint. Obviously other options exist, yet connections feel confident Brass Ring can acquit himself with credit in exalted company, which is a distinct possibility. So his and the presence of Gospel Choir makes the apparently simple less so.
3.50: The 2,000 Guineas – and the ground appears to have come right for Kingman who, after the performance of his life at Newbury in the Greenham, lines up as the dragon to slay. Australia carries the sharpest lance. Actually, the word is that its point is sharper than one of Leonard’s razor blades. The rhetoric emanating from Ballydoyle – with its intense bloodstock interests it often publicly floats on castles of air – is that we are not dealing with a windbag here. If, as word has it, Australia has the speed to win one of the most competitive Guineas in recent years, we might as well gift him the Derby now and save everyone else the bother. Toormore, Charm Spirit, the notoriously lazy worker that is War Command (ten lengths behind Australia on his latest breeze-up), Outstrip, Noozhoh Canarias and even Ertijaal all have claims, are not slow and are not racehorses as a second career. But apparently they face a monster.

To complete the portfolio, word has it that, even allowing for the fact he is not prone to exert himself in the morning, Racing Post winner Kingston Hill is more inclined to read the paper in the mornings than contribute to its headlines. The current score at his stable is: Tiddles the cat six – Kingston Hill nil!

So it’s AUSTRALIA. Kingman is a fair favourite but the obvious is not always the answer.

A second and equally appealing betting opportunity presents itself an hour and ten minutes later in the Newmarket Stakes where we see the reappearance of Craven third Postponed. Having looked like a possible Group 1 contender after freewheeling home behind Guineas candidate Toormore over a trip patently short for him, the son of Dubawi gets his chance to confirm that impression over this trip of 1m 2f. Of course he takes on the highly likeable Cloudscape, whose form from the same meeting when beating subsequent Sandown winner Windshear reads well and makes him a serious adversary. However, if POSTPONED is to become the horse he has looked on more than one occasion, he should be up to beating the respected but, as yet, comparatively unproven (at least in this company) Cloudscape. On a day when I am wearing a hat emblazoned with the words DOGMATIC – I suggest, in a race that is hotter than a vindaloo on a Friday night, the rest, decent though they may be, can be disregarded.

So there it is: the man that is temporarily out of range acquires bravery beyond his mettle. Between now and that last pint of Adnams I have a couple of answers. I only hope I turn out to be a prophet of fortune rather than doom…
Threatening letters to the usual address in Switzerland please…