Based on races viewed, Spy’s analysis and list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 29TH:

NEWBURY: 3.00: The Hennessy Gold Cup poses several of the usual questions. After a promising start to his chasing career last season, Djakadam looks a class act here. His present mark along with his place in the handicap makes him an appealing prospect in a race where nothing stands out from a handicapping prospective. However, he faces his stiffest test and recent market support means any value has been hoovered up. Second in this last year and now 5lbs higher, with a tongue tie applied for the first time, we should expect a bold show from Rocky Creek who it can be argued returns to action as a better horse now than he was this time last year. Ballynagour would have a serious chance if he stays the trip, which, on ground such as this has to be open to question. Many Clouds is another to enter the reckoning. However, the message for Smad Place is encouraging and a big run seems to be expected. In a race that is hard to call the RSA runner-up has to be the selection.

NEWBURY WINTER FESTIVAL Day-One

Persistent rain has changed the ground at Newbury to a mixture of soft and heavy. Whatever the official description, it will be extremely testing. As a result the fields for Thursday are small and they feature several odds-on chances. The weather is dank and dreary; it is cold and rheumatic; the opening day is for enthusiasts only.

The feature event is the bet365 Intermediate Hurdle – registered and known to aficionados as The Gerry Feilden Hurdle – run at 3.15. Willie Mullins is down to fielding two from an original entry of three. Progressive at the end of last season when winning his last two hurdles in Ireland, Daneking looks a better prospect at present than stable mate Wicklow Brave. Despite a serious hike in the ratings (up 13lbs) after his win at Fairyhouse in April that win nevertheless cemented his profile as a hurdler soaring through the ranks. A winner on heavy he looks a serious contender here, although the weight concession to the French import L’ami Serge (another with solid form on the heavy) could be cause for concern. Nicky Henderson has taken his runners out en masse on this opening day so it looks significant that L’ami Serge stands his ground. To complete a part-line-up of the unknowns, another French import, Le Mercurey, represents Paul Nicholls but has to defy a stiff mark.

Unless someone from the Mullins’ camp is spotted backing L’ami Serge, Daneking is taken to continue his rise with a prestigious win.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 15TH:

CHELTENHAM: There are no easy answers today and this race is no exception. Present View has been the persistent tip locally, but the value has gone now and he may struggle to contain a horse with a similar profile, Buywise – another for whom there is a word. For those looking for something at a price, Persian Snow has a chance of reversing last month’s form with John’s Spirit and with his stable in such sparkling current form, he may belie his odds.

LINGFIELD 2.00: The listed event looks suitably competitive but presents in-form Intransigent with a solid opportunity. Medicean Man looks sure to play a part at this level and in Dubai this season, but may come up slightly short for this his first run since June. Intransigent’s most interesting opponent could be Golden Steps, who hovers on a decent mark after catching the eye at Ascot two runs ago. His latest effort over an inadequate five furlongs can be disregarded and whatever his fate here, the decision to campaign him over the all-weather this season looks sure to pay dividends.

2.35: Although the opposition looks strong, if coping with Snowmane and Fire Fighting, Educate looks primed to return to winning action here. Polytrack should be no barrier but the three-year-olds – Snowmane in particular – look progressive so, although Educate should be thereabouts, confidence is at a minimum.

CHELTENHAM FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14TH:

It’s Day One of the three-day meeting that sees the return of one of the big two Cheltenham pre-Christmas fixtures. Chances are we shall have some new names to conjure with by the conclusion of the coming days. One of these could easily be Champagne Present, whose participation in the 3.00, aided by the presence of Ruby Walsh – deputising for Tony McCoy – looks one of the most interesting new kids on the block. Narrowly beaten at Aintree in October when arguably unfortunate not to have won, that was a highly promising start over timber and this son of Presenting will only need to show normal improvement to score now.

Thirty-five minutes earlier a small and select field lines up for the Class 2 chase over an extended two-and-half miles. Champagne West and Dell’ Arca are interesting recruits, whilst Urban Hymn’s debut over the bigger obstacles suggests he can make his mark over this sphere. Colour Squadron, who is chasing his tail over fences and yet to score after numerous near-misses, may once again have to play second fiddle in the face of what looks like a strong challenge from some up-and-coming chasers.

4.05: Considering his reputation from last year, it will come as no surprise if Cup Final were to win this from a mark of 125. However, so far his claim to fame has been largely talk and although he is respected (particularly over this trip) likely favourite Cassells Rock is seen as a safer proposition. The race is tight and does not stop there, with Buster Dan Dan and Morito Du Berlais others worthy of consideration. However, in the belief he may start this season as a well-handicapped horse (has a big weight turn round with River Deep for example on their running at Newton Abbot last May) a chance is taken with Cloudy Beach.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7th:

Doncaster: 1.50: The inclusion of potential group performer Voice Of A Leader requires backers to take a second look here. So late in the season it is improbable he is being teed up for a target elsewhere. Notwithstanding the fact we have not seen him since he finished third to Be Ready and Barley Mow in a listed event over this course at the St Leger meeting last year, his able trainer has a record of preparing his charges fit and ready to run, therefore he is unlikely to be making up the numbers. Although hard to be dogmatic, Voice Of A Leader has the potential to make an impact in this company from a mark of 97, making any surfacing market confidence highly significant.

2.25: Jack Dexter has an opportunity here to make the 3lbs he receives from Tropics count. On ideal ground he bids to supplement his success in this last year when beating a strong field that included the improved Spinatrix whom he now meets on more favourable terms. From what looks like an ideal draw he has plenty in his favour. Tropics is entitled to go close but should struggle to concede weight to the selection based on Ascot running from last time. Spinatrix has to be a contender but needs a personal best, as does Dungannon who is arguably more effective at the minimum trip. After a highly promising return to action at Newmarket in September, Aetna was a disappointment behind Spinatrix last time. Despite being in her element on this surface that makes her hard to fancy in this elevated company now.

3.00: Conditions will suit Melrose Abbey, for whom the ground cannot be too soft. Never seen with a chance behind Silk Sari in the Park Hill, she may have needed the outing – her first for nearly three months. Earlier runs at Newmarket and Salisbury puts her in here with a solid chance and she looks the each-way alternative to likely favourite Princess Loulou – who, despite good efforts in defeat this season, has yet to get her head in front since scoring in two soft events last autumn.

3.35: Class act Mount Logan has the look of a late season improver but the prospect of ground riding on the soft side is a worry for a son of New Approach. There are no such worries for Manhattan Swing who, after a lucrative campaign over hurdles, looks well-handicapped reverting to the Flat. On his last appearance on the level in May he was an excellent second to Edge Of Sanity at Leopardstown from only a three pounds lower mark – a run that puts him in with a definite chance here. He lines up fit after finishing third last month at Chepstow in a listed event over timber and despite a wide draw looks overpriced. Dangers abound – many of them appearing to be on the upgrade. But at this eleventh hour of the season the handicapper has taken no chances, so they will need to raise their games even further to defy weight rises.

The jumping cards look inconclusive, although there may be an angle to be found in the Elite Hurdle at 3.15 at Wincanton. Rock On Ruby faces a stiff task conceding weight to several promising types, as does Purple Bay – who should not beat Hint Of Mint for one. Irving reappears after his Cheltenham Festival disappointment and given the conditions of the event will need to recover his best form in this company. He may have more to offer as the season unfolds. Hint Of Mint and Forgotten Voice enter calculations after recent pipe openers behind The New One at Kempton and both have the capability to become dangers to all. However, an in-form and progressive Bertimont – whose defeat of Dawalan at Chepstow was underlined at Ascot last Saturday – may be capable of taking this leap in class.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 1ST:

Newmarket: 12.50: Having run credibly against Commemorative on debut, then fourth to Mohatem over this course, but for a narrow defeat at Goodwood next time Secateur would be a confident call in this nursery. The problem is that Shadow Rock – who beat him a neck at Goodwood and re-opposes on only a pound worse terms – looks equally well-treated. With Secateur and Shadow Rock (showed a good attitude last time whereas Secateur did zigzag his chance away) racing from marks of 77 and 78 respectively, one or the other should prevail. A 10lbs hike threatens to edge out Dark Wave.

1.25: Lady Of Dubai looked like a filly heading in the right direction when skating away with her maiden over course and distance in September. This followed promise in her earlier attempts and any further improvement would make her very hard to beat now. If recovering form Bitter Lake would be the main danger. However she represents another conundrum from Godolphin. She did look useful on debut on the July course but has been absent since being burned off in the Albany, making her hard to fancy on her reappearance. At this time of year, current form is all-important. Toujours L’Amour looked a fortunate winner on debut (runner-up had the race won but jockey eased down), whilst the wins of Sagaciously and Irish Rookie need improving upon in this company. Lady Of Dubai looks solid.

2.35: Allowing for WFA, Mutakayyef has 1lb and half a length in hand of Air Pilot after their running in the Darley Stakes last time. It is tempting to think it may be enough to allow him to confirm that form, although we are talking about a narrow margin. That said it was Mutakayyef’s first run since the middle of June so improvement is likely.

3.10: After winning the Cambridgeshire and a similar handicap at Ascot where he enjoyed an unplanned for draw advantage a rating of 111 looks likely to flatter Bronze Angel, who now faces much hotter opposition. In any event he is at his best in big fields so looks one to swerve here. Linton and Emell constitute dangers beyond the obvious that could easily have a say in the outcome.

Wetherby: The Grade 2 Charlie Hall looks a decent renewal, which could go to new kid in town Taquin Du Seuil who, after a pipe opener at Newton Abbott three weeks ago that failed to go to plan against a couple of speedier types, should be more at home in this field that places a greater emphasis on stamina. In receipt of 10lbs from Silviniaco Conti, Taquin Du Seuil can make it count and looks the sort to make his presence felt in this company as the season progresses.

Breeders’ Cup: Santa Anita: 21.05: A blisteringly quick juvenile, there is every reason to assume No Nay Never has lost none of his edge judged on his latest success at Keenland.

22.22: It’s about time Flintshire got himself back on the score sheet and on his preferred ground, the Breeders’ Cup Turf could present the ideal opportunity. The trouble is he is winless since last July and horses with this kind of profile often find it hard to recover the winning thread. On his best form (including his latest second in the Arc) he is the form pick. Really fast ground may be against Telescope, whilst a revitalised Main Sequence is another that carries baggage. Even so a trio of Grade 1 successes in the USA signifies he is now on track. Value looks to lurk in the shape of Arlington Million winner Hardest Core, whose form from that with Magician and Side Glance suggests it is not far short of the best on offer. Currently available at 10/1 and a proven performer on this ground and over this trip, Hardest Core is the pick.
23.40: Toronado looks a worthy favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Mile but he will still need to run to his very best to win. A line through Kingman gives him the edge over Mustajeeb. Anodin is a decent performer that has so far come up short at this level. We know a little about Seek Again, who was progressive at the end of last season. Even allowing for improvement since his move, it is unlikely he will be up to winning this. Once again value is king and Karakontie – saddled with what could be a disadvantageous draw – was nevertheless murdered in running in the Foret and should not be judged on that run alone. After a relatively light season, as a French Guineas winner, he appeals as the betting alternative to Toronado.