Based on races viewed, Spy’s analysis and list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

FRIDAY OCTOBER 31ST

NEWMARKET: 2.00: Not beaten far in the Cheveley Park when fourth to Tiggy Wiggy, Terror looks nailed on to win this; although, from a betting perspective it is of course late in the season to be nominating fillies. The opposition here looks far from testing, with only Avenue Montaigne (not seen since August) lining up with worthwhile form at this level. Any temptation to invest in Terror is readily tempered by the knowledge she is sure to be odds-on.

2.35: Historically this odd little six furlong conditions stakes tends to favour two-year-olds over their older rivals. This year’s juveniles are represented by Apache Storm who, despite a recent Kempton win, lines up with turf form that fails to inspire. However, on breeding she should appreciate the ground and the further 3lbs she receives as a result of Cam Hardie’s 3lbs allowance may be enough to tip the scales in her favour against ordinary opposition.

3.10: With two subsequent winners having emerged from the Musselburgh race in which Leaderene finished fourth last time, her run has a solid look to it, meaning, from the same mark, she could be the safest option here. Worryingly though, she is the third filly to catch the eye on a decidedly dodgy card.

It may be an early winter start for Newmarket but beneath the shadow of the Blue Mountains given the time difference, in Santa Anita day one of the Breeders’ Cup commences just as the local little perishers and urchins in the UK are rattling their begging bowls for the infernal ritual that is Halloween. This signifies it is time for racing fans to draw the curtains, turn off the lights and turn up the volume. In the 21.25 it is surprising to see Windsor Castle winner and speedball Hootenanny make a sudden leap from six furlongs in the Morny to a mile here against rivals that are more obvious candidates over this trip. The progressive Commemorative will need to pull out more than when winning the Autumn Stakes last time at Newmarket, but he is on a roll at present. Imperia carries American confidence but takes a step up in class. War Envoy looks a solid alternative to all. Good runs at the highest level here and in Ireland mean he should not be fazed by the occasion from a fair draw. With the assistance of Ryan Moore, a big run is envisaged from this son of War Front who is bred for the job and should have no problem with the forecast fast ground.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 25th:

Doncaster: 2.10: Growl may be capable of recovering winning form now he faces less testing company. Although thought to be below form in the Acomb at York, on reflection, a seven length defeat by Dutch Connection is probably a reasonable reflection of his ability after his run at Newbury when he was beaten a similar distance by Toocoolforschool in the Mill Reef. With nothing of that calibre in this field, he has his chance to justify the lofty home reputation he enjoys.

2.40: This is a tight handicap that could be monopolised by three-year-olds. Although nothing stands out, expected soft ground should suit an in-form Ruwasi who may be a pound or two ahead of his rating.

3.15: Depending on which form line you choose to take, cases can be made for several here. Last year’s winner Dungannon would have claims on that run, with Ballesteros and Confessional coming out the best of those that opposed that day on these revised terms. All three are hard to win with; however Confessional looks marginally most interesting on current form and these conditions will suit. In contrast it is hard to be over-optimistic about Golden Steps who tries the minimum trip for the first time having looked at Ascot – when admittedly unlucky in running – as if maybe a step up from six would benefit. Add to the mix the possible vagaries of the draw and clearly this race is hard to predict. One can only hope: Confessional shapes as if he is about to hit form but the low draw means he has no room to manoeuvre if he finds himself on the wrong part of the course.

3.50: After a lazy but willing enough victory in the Royal Lodge, Elm Park should be even more effective on this easier ground. Those with established form don’t quite look good enough to trouble him. The unexposed pair comprising of Celestial Path and Jacobean – who made up an enormous amount of ground having got behind on debut when eventually closing on always handy Royal Navy Ship – are open to improvement and look the major dangers.

5.00: Despite a couple of flashes indicating all is not lost this season, Top Notch Tonto’s overall profile this year is unconvincing, making him hard to fancy. Of the opposition, a much-improved Louis The Pious looks to have most in his favour and the weight allowance he receives from what may prove to be his biggest danger, Linton – who shaped as if needing his reappearance run last time – could tip the scales in his favour.

NEWBURY: For those prepared to take his best form into account, Red Galileo may be worth chancing in the St Simon Stakes at 2.20. A winner of one race, but fifth in this year’s Derby, the son of Dubawi has put a couple of decent runs together this autumn and it could be significant that on the occasions he has flopped the ground was firm. There are no such worries at Newbury now and if he shows the sort of form he is capable of he can take what looks like a weak Group 3. Sky Hunter’s belated win at Ayr last month told us little and it seems a long time since he finished third in the 2013 French Derby. Not looking in love with the game, there is no guarantee the hood will work a second time.

2.50: The fillies in the Listed look much of a muchness. Muffri’ha and Silver Rainbow could be anything at this stage, whilst there doesn’t look to be much to choose between Lacing, Astrelle and Shagah.

At CHEPSTOW there is a strong word for Son Du Berlais in the Persian War Hurdle at 3.35. A lightly-raced import from France that was impressive when winning at Newton Abbot last month, he is expected to scale the heights this season and represents yet more ammunition for the battalions that belong to the Nick Henderson yard.

CHAMPIONS’ DAY – Saturday Oct 18th

After receiving enough rain to sink a battleship, Ascot’s big autumn meeting is likely to be staged under a blue-and-grey sky with the ever-present prospect of a further deluge only a rolling cloud away.

The weather threatens to take the glitter from the proceedings, but the quality of racing remains constant. The Long Distance Cup that kick-starts the card at 1.45 is scheduled to be run on ground already described as heavy – soft in places. Versatile as regards trip and ground, last year’s St Leger winner and this year’s Gold Cup winner Leading Light is clearly the horse to beat. However, in view of conditions, this is not a card that should appeal to those in search of the obvious and that are prepared to take commensurate odds. The field is strong but the ground may even things up in favour of Whiplash Willie, who has run well this season against top class opponents but will come into his own on this surface. More importantly, for every stride he takes on ground he relishes, his opponents become vulnerable. With only just over a length to find on Estimate on their running in the Doncaster Cup, and after a somewhat unlucky but creditable effort in the Cadran, on ground that cannot be soft enough, Whiplash Willie has a chance to a share of the limelight at this belated stage of the season. At worse he looks a solid each-way prospect. The inclusion of unexposed Forgotten Rules adds interest. On pedigree he should cope with the ground but he has to prove he is up to this company. Although his win at Galway gives rise to the claim he could be rated within a few pounds of the principal players, backing him requires too much of a leap of faith. Estimate and the improving Big Orange (handles the mud but should struggle against Whiplash Willie on revised terms since Chester) appear to have chances in what looks no more than a five-horse contest.

2.20: G Force faces a raft of different conditions to those that saw him finally gain a big pot at Haydock. There is every chance that proven autumn campaigner Gordon Lord Byron may reverse Haydock Sprint form with him, but of greater interest could be Viztoria, a filly who peaked at this time last year, was a recent winner at the Curragh, and handles heavy ground. A rattling good filly on her day, she arrives here fresher than most and has the look of a horse that has been targeted at this event.

2.55: Perm any one of three, but there are plenty of reasons to switch allegiance as we go here. On the face of it the winner should come from the trio that comprises the improving Silk Sari, Chicquita and Hadaatha, but it is hard to be confident which way it will go.

3.30: The betting for the Queen Elizabeth II is dominated by the three-year-olds Night Of Thunder and Charm Spirit, who look closely matched on the evidence of their meetings to date. Both have serious chances but the ever-improving Integral, who according to her trainer is simply getting better with age, could run them close. Although hard to fancy on the balance of his form, it is worth pointing out that Kingsbarns finished third in this last year (not managed to equal that since) so it could be – a winner of the Racing Post a juvenile – that this is his time of year. Integral is a tentative pick.

4.05: The Champion Stakes revolves round Cirrus Des Aigles – the question being: at the age of eight, is it reasonable to assume he is anywhere near his best? Judged on a scrambling victory at Longchamp in the Group 2 Dollar (from which he was disqualified), that seems debatable. His current price assumes plenty and although I would dearly like to see him prevail, I will believe it when I see it. Free Eagle – once touted as the best horse Dermot Weld has trained – faces a demanding task after an interrupted season on only his fourth run and on ground that may not be ideal. In what is a far from straightforward contest, Noble Mission lines up with less advanced excuses than most and despite a once-chequered record, appears a safer betting proposition than those mentioned.

4.45: Bookmakers will be confident of a successful close to the meeting in what looks like a wide open Class 2 handicap. This easy ground should be ideal for Velox who has made steady improvement since an unlucky run at Epsom. His latest effort in the Cambridgeshire emphasises how much he has improved despite the constant attention of the handicapper. Luck will play its part, but, in as much as a horse in a race like this does make appeal, possible pattern performer Velox looks a very interesting contender from a double-figure price.

FUTURE CHAMPIONS’ DAY – Friday Oct 17th

NEWMARKET: 2.25: The Group 3 Cornwallis has looked a natural target for Squats since his Ascot victory in September when he displayed an electrifying turn of foot that took him from last-to-first inside a furlong. Beating Profitable that day – whom he has nothing to fear from on even better terms now – that killer-kick was in evidence last time at Ayr when only a bad draw and a messy race prevented him from lifting a listed event. Being by Dandy Man, it is hoped the soft ground should not be against him and he looks a reasonable wager to ignite what promises to be a busy betting weekend.

2.55: Although hardly a betting proposition at shades of odds-on, Ivawood ought to continue his run in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. Having won on soft ground, a well-grown two-year-old with a current physical advantage over his contemporaries, it is hard to envisage him getting beaten as a juvenile. An improved Muhaarar (who was behind Ivawood in the July Stakes) and the proven Cappella Sansevero represent his biggest dangers, but the favourite will have to underperform to surrender an unbeaten record.

3.25: Runner-up in the Moyglare and winner of the Rockfel, Lucida has the appropriate form to suggest she will win her first Group 1. Again, her price is likely to build-in such an assumption and in the face of strong opposition, although expected to win, encountering the softest surface of her career so far, and with Agnes Stewart and Marsh Hawk both expected to act on the surface, her task is not straightforward. Therefore from a betting viewpoint she is probably best watched.

4.00: On a day packed with quality, the ground means there may be a couple of notable absentees from the Dewhurst this year, but it is nevertheless a top class event. Progressive Estidhkaar is the obvious one to beat and based on his performance in the Champagne at Doncaster he looks ready for this transition to Group 1 company. He faces six smart rivals – none of whom can be comfortably discarded. Smuggler’s Cove attempts a serious rise in class after a couple of taking wins in Ireland. His action suggests he should cope with much softer ground, but as yet he cannot lay claim to being in this class. Secret Brief and Maftool (no certainty to cope with the ground) are decent, whilst the well-thought of Kodi Bear makes his reappearance after winning a listed at Ascot in July. Dutch Connection has worked his way up to this level. His form stacks up and therefore he should not be underestimated, particularly as he is a son of soft ground sire Dutch Art. Belardo is considered to be better than his latest run when behind Estidhkaar at Doncaster and with the hood now reached for, could get closer this time. Estidhkaar clearly warrants his place at the head of the market but even so will need to produce his A-game to score.

5.10: An 18lbs weight rise means Air Pilot has paid the penalty for his point blank success at Newbury last time. As a son of Zamindar he clearly relishes easy ground but this opposition, as it should in a Group 3, threatens to be testing. A relatively fresh Code Of Honour is interesting after his latest win at Newbury, whilst the proven performer at this level, Grandeur (who does not always deliver on the day) lines-up with the right qualifications on paper.

Newmarket stages an excellent card, one on which not everything may follow the script. Packed with interest, Squats is nominated as a value bet and as a curtain-raiser for a couple of similar suggested wagers on Saturday.

Redcar: Having created a favourable impression on debut at Newmarket (where he went to post much too freely so no surprise to see a hood applied now) Tawaasheesh is presented with a soft option in a maiden he should win at 1.55. However, it is early days to take a short price about him and a watching brief is advised.
Soft ground means one or two short-priced favourites may not be the safe prospects they appear at Haydock, whilst jump fans get what for them is their first taste of action at the home of National Hunt at Cheltenham. With something for everyone, racing fans are presented with an engrossing day.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 11th:

Newmarket: 2.05: The card starts with the Group 3 Autumn Stakes – a race with a good history. Nashwan was a past winner – more recently Kingston Hill took it last year. The line-up this time round looks potentially strong. Recent Doncaster winner Commemorative should not be underestimated – a rough assessment puts him on a par with several of these: notably Future Empire, Bartholomew Fair and Strong Chemistry, all of whom have similar credentials. However, recent Leopardstown winner Order Of St George scored by a convincing eight lengths then and not only stays this trip, but is effective on easy ground. He is a serious contender here.

2.40: This is probably not a race to get too involved with; nevertheless, a step up in trip looks likely to suit the progressive Provenance, who is not the easiest of rides but who has the advantage of regular partner Ryan Moore. Provenance and Blue Waltz look two fillies in top form at this late stage of the season and are therefore nominated as the two against the field.

3.10: A further 5lbs hike threatens to sabotage Connecticut; even so, a proven smart performer, he may be capable of offsetting that rise now that he returns to a mile-and-a-half. Epsom Hill and Battersea are horses with similar profiles in a tight contest, whilst Top Tug – who we have not seen May – looked decent when he defeated Cloudscape that day and could be ahead of his rating.

3.50: The Cesarewitch – second leg of the famous Autumn Double – looks as knotty as ever. Quick Jack is surely yet another cleverly placed runner from his imaginative trainer, who seems to turn out plots as regularly as Stephen King does his novels. Carefully campaigned over both hurdles and on the Flat and with an enviable racing record, representing Tony Martin, Quick Jack will not be making up the numbers. However, he will need to produce a personal best from a mark of 94. Big Easy ran an excellent trial over this course and distance in September and looks likely to play a part in the finish. Two less obvious candidates that could outrun their prices are Groovejet (has her stamina to prove but a chance on her Park Hill second if seeing out the trip) and possibly the best each-way contender in the race, Communicator, who comes here on the back of a good run at Haydock and will appreciate this test of stamina and the ease underfoot.

York: 3.30: The wily old bird that is Mick Easterby has chosen the competitive Coral Sprint to launch a race-fit Aetna after her eye-catching return to action at Newmarket at the end of last month. Narrowly beaten after a staying-on third on ground that was too lively that day, she will find today’s conditions more to her liking and, relatively fresh at this late stage of the season, promises to be hard to beat.

YORK – FRIDAY OCTOBER 9th:

Sometimes you find yourself looking at race cards and wondering if you would be better being otherwise employed – deciphering a document written in Mandarin for example.

Horse racing demands a fair degree of guesswork: guesswork over the draw, the going, whether the German group winner that has changed stables can exploit what looks like a generous mark; or whether its best days are never to be reproduced and best forgotten. Whether a step up in trip will suit, whether the fact that a horse has only won on left-handed tracks is a coincidence, or whether there is a deeper-seated explanation lurking between those lugs that perch at the top if its head. These and other imponderables combine to make an MOT-type checklist punters are required to address before striking a bet with any confidence.

Sometimes it all seems too convoluted for comfort. Sometimes it seems we are faced with situations that require us to throw caution and common sense to the winds before picking up the phone or pressing the button.

Those making a success of this business will mostly tell you that waiting for the perfect bet is pretty much a waste of time, and that the answer is to employ a scatter gun approach – betting as often as possible in the belief that you will be right on enough occasions to bust the percentages.

Place one hundred bets a month and achieve a strike rate of 25% and, providing the average winning price exceeds 3/1, profit is guaranteed. On the face of it any ratio that allows 75% of selections to lose and still show a profit looks like it’s part of a tempting proposition. It also takes a good deal of pressure from the punter’s shoulders. All gamblers get things wrong (the clue is in the title). Getting things wrong in horse racing is a given. Even when you are right you can be wrong. Not many pursuits carry such a deflating caveat.

The trick to success is to constantly identify horses whose prices are greater than their winning chances. Doing this is a knack. Bookmakers are engaged in putting a gun to punters’ heads and making them tread the exact opposite path. They want them to strike bets at prices that reflect a lower chance than suggested by available information and the wild card that is probability.

Therefore, as a punter, if you contrive to consistently outsmart the market, your chance of long-term profit is greatly increased. The trick here, as with all success stories, is not to try. By that I mean, don’t set out to identify market mistakes – let them come your way by natural selection. After form analysis, by targeting those candidates that disregard the obvious (famously, and correctly identified as the bleedin’ obvious by John Cleese), and concentrating on races that feature wobbly favourites, or a runner that you consider to be underpriced for whatever reason (owned by a member of royalty; ridden by the jockey of the moment, talked up by a high-profile pundit or organisation), you will increase the possibility of your selection being overpriced. As with all positives and negatives – for every underpriced runner, an overpriced one must follow.

You might wonder where all this is leading on a column that is entitled “Free Tips” and advertises itself as concentrating on the York program for Friday October 9th.

Fair point… The York card – like many this time of the year – is far from easy. The races are well-subscribed and in many cases contain horses that have leapfrogged their way to the headlines in recent weeks. Two, seen as the most likely winners on the card, are hardly likely to have escaped the notice of the odds-compilers. Consequently the question is whether we can expect their prices to be bigger than their winning chances.

After only two runs, the handicapper has not too much to go on when assessing a mark for Acolyte, who runs in the nursery at 2.00. What we can say is that seven furlongs appeared to stretch this son of Acclamation on his debut when third to subsequent Royal Lodge winner Elm Park. Dropped to today’s trip of six furlongs, he was always in control at Kempton last time and a mark of 78 could easily be generous. On the face of it his opponents look exposed; therefore, if reproducing what he looks to be capable of, Acolyte should win. No prices are available at the time of writing. There can be little doubt that Acolyte will be favourite: the question potential backers have to ask is whether the price will justify a bet. My guess (and that is the correct term for what follows) is that Acolyte will be 9/4 in the morning and that he could easily represent a 13/8 chance in reality. So, to quote a well-known television presenter: Deal or No Deal?

Having won the Silver Cambridgeshire at Newmarket two weeks ago, GM Hopkins lines up with similar credentials in the 3.00. It could be argued the handicapper has more information to go on here and therefore that a mark of 100 is an accurate assessment of GM Hopkins’ capability. He did win with plenty of authority at Newmarket and, although the handicapper has hoisted him by 9lbs which nudges him towards pattern class, at the time of writing he faces seventeen rivals, none of them looking as if they are likely to produce an ace from the bottom of the deck. Even so his task may not appear to be as straightforward as Acolyte’s, which has to be built-in to his price now. There is very chance his price may be about right: 11/4 in the morning – 2/1 come race time.

Both horses are feasible selections but, anyone can make a selection – the meaningful question is: are they bets?

Bearing in mind, with the attainable example shown earlier – that of a strike rate of 25% and an average price of over 3/1 about winners mathematically guaranteeing a profit – they hover on the periphery. Of the two, Acolyte looks the safer, but, not one to allow bookmakers to dictate my betting habits unless it can be helped; only when prices are chalked up tomorrow are we in a better position to make a decision…

SATURDAY OCTOBER 4th:

Newmarket Tips

Fillies get a shot at a big payday in the opening sales race at 1.50. Osaila’s form with Cursory Glance – whom she has encountered twice – entitles her to market prominence here and she looks like the filly to beat, especially as the Moyglare form was franked by Lucida in last week’s Rockfel.

Half-an-hour later at 2.20 the colts’ equivalent looks more open. Unexposed Tannaaf – a clear-cut winner on the July course in August who is highly regarded (reflected by a Dewhurst entry) – is likely to prove a serious candidate. If the forecast rain arrives that may suit The Warrior, whose action suggests firm ground at the Curragh last time – allied to an interrupted passage – may have been against him. Those with established form are represented by last week’s Royal Lodge fourth Misterioso – who may improve for that run his first since the middle of July – and Secret Brief, who is not certain to confirm with latest running with Heartbreak Hero. That said the standard they set is not over high so the promising Tannaaf is taken to come out on top en route to greater heights.

3.30: A glittering day at the Suffolk track is crowned by the Group 1 Sun Chariot. Once again it has attracted a strong field and on a day when Gallic eyes are largely focused on Longchamp, the French field what could be a formidable challenge. Responsible for three runners with excellent claims, Andre Fabre is mob-handed. Fintry steps into Group 1 company for the first time and Esoterique returns to the scene of her Dahlia triumph after a credible effort against Charm Spirit and Toronado in the Moulin last month. Although she has a little in hand of her stable companion Miss France, the latter has had a relatively light season after winning the 1000 Guineas here in May and is likely to be sharper now. Having looked like a top class filly as a juvenile and again when winning the season’s first classic, she is the selection. Integral, who was second in a weaker renewal last year but who has gone from strength to strength since, has to be respected but Miss France is the call.

After what looked like a terrific effort in the Ayr Gold Cup from the unfavoured side of the track, Minalisa steps back into listed company at 4.40. There is a danger that strong winds and rain may alter conditions significantly, in which case she should not be inconvenienced by softening ground. Even with her 3lbs penalty she should be hard to beat.

(Note was a non runner due to ground change)

Ascot: After his demolition job in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster, Muthmir makes the anticipated leap into higher company, contesting the listed that kicks off the card at 2.05. Blitzing to a course record on St Leger day, if that run is taken at face value he is potentially well ahead of his official rating and should prove too progressive and too good for decent but exposed rivals.

(Note was a non runner due to ground change)

ASCOT FRIDAY OCTOBER 3rd:

Handicaps rule here on a difficult card that contains two long-distance events and a classified and a listed that both contain horses that are hard to evaluate.

Betting opportunities appear limited, although Lawyer, who his stable appear to have been placed in a race with the handicapper after a fair third last weekend at Newmarket, would have a strong chance in the Class 3 handicap at 4.15 if repeating that latest effort. Racing from the same mark as when a close third to Consign last Thursday, Lawyer will rise a few pounds on the back of that run so has his best chance of the season now. A decent run from Consign in the 2.30 on the card will surely boost his chance and could easily result in his price contracting. With better to come over the weekend, he is seen as the only positive on an otherwise quiet day.