GUINEAS WEEKEND – MAY 2nd/3rd:

Newmarket: Saturday May 2nd: A splash of rain (forecast but not forthcoming at the time of writing) would be welcome before the start of the two-day Classic meeting…

2.00: Two seasons on and after six races, on the verge of what ought to be a lucrative campaign, Top Tug now makes his reappearance as a four-year-old. Rather like a vintage wine, he has always looked likely to improve with age (something confirmed by his pedigree) and he embarks on his third season equipped with what looks like a reasonable mark. Despite his stable’s rather slow start to the season (signs they might be hitting stride now), he should be up to this task en route to loftier targets.

3.45: 2000 Guineas: Apparently Gleneagles lines up here for his first start of the season with all guns ablaze. Demoted after winning the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere on merit, although technically he is closely matched with Territories, he sets a pretty high standard and is taken to repel the French challenger. Several line up in opposition with similar claims. Decent though they are, Estidhkaar and Ivawood look a notch below that required. Intilaaq is interesting after blitzing his rivals in a maiden at Newbury in a fast time, but he will find this a different proposition. Elm Park has had an ideal preparation and his form looks solid. He will improve for some cut so granted some ease in the ground could go well. His current double-figure price looks too big. Similarly, Moheet should not be judged too harshly on his third in the Craven. It is a run he is capable of improving upon, particularly if the rain arrives, in which case Ladbrokes should find no shortage of takers at their present price of 33/1.

4.55: Second to Elm Park in the Racing Post, a good run from the winner in the Guineas will ensure Aloft will be well supported here. He looks the pick on juvenile form and promises to stay the trip.

At Doncaster in the 6.45 the handicapper has certainly taken no prisoners with Strong Chemistry’s mark. Raised 9lbs for a Newbury second in a race that has yet to work out, he is asked a big question in having concede 19lbs to the improving Gothic Empire.
7.45: After a fair effort in a decent Newmarket handicap, Spiriting should open his account without too much bother in this maiden.

May 3rd: Newmarket: 3.40: As the betting suggests The 1000 Guineas looks wide open. Lucida is a fragile form pick as she has little in hand of Malabar and Osaila. Jellicle Ball’s name will not sit particularly well on the winners’ list, but she is expected to come on for her recent Fred Darling second, particularly over this extra furlong and could be the alternative.

4.50: Zannda could be on course for a tilt at the Oaks, something she can emphasise with a win here.

5.25: Muqtaser can be expected to improve on a pleasing run here two weeks ago in what looks like a tight handicap full of possible improvers.

WEDNESDAY – APRIL 29th:

Ascot: 3.30: As it stands the penalty and, possibly more importantly, the ground is against Tac De Boistron, who although he handles a lively surface is much better in the wet. The converse is the case for Forever Now, who was not suited by the soft at Nottingham on reappearance and can reverse form with stable mate Deuce Again on this forecast faster surface. Pallasator could provide the biggest threat, although this is a quality renewal that features several unknown quantities.

4.05: Unbeaten last year and extremely impressive in the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy, Limato looks more than smart. Likely to be short in the betting, his price will not be to everyone’s taste but it is not feasible to oppose him.

4.35: Mondialiste gets another chance at this level following a decent enough effort behind French Navy at Newmarket. The extra furlong and an interrupted passage conspired against him then (although he would not have won in any case, but was beaten by a couple of useful types). With 5lbs turnaround in his favour after finishing marginally in front of Moohaarib in the Lincoln he should confirm that form, although he still faces a serious threat in the shape of Hors De Combat.

Pontefract: 2.00: From a stable that landed a gamble with a similar juvenile on Saturday, speedily-bred Bossipop looks interesting on debut but will have to be decent to score. This stiff five furlongs will suit twice-raced Sixth Sense, who has shaped with promise against decent rivals (winners are destined for Royal Ascot) and gets his turn today.

SATURDAY – APRIL 25th:

Haydock: 2.55: Last seen when a staying-on third to Fred Darling runner-up Jellicle Ball at Kempton in October, apparently Gold Sands has made improvement since and an Oaks entry suggests she ought to open her account here.

Ripon: 4.35: Decorated Knight is likely to be a short price to break his maiden but the perfect opportunity appears to have been found here. Reports suggest he is in top shape for his second run after what was a promising debut behind Commemorative at Doncaster during the St Leger meeting last September.

Sandown: Is all about one man – we wish him well on his last day in the saddle. Purists will find loyalties divided in the Grade 1 where the champ’s partner Mr Mole and Sprinter Sacre currently share market leadership. To say the least, after a lack-lustre effort at Cheltenham, the reappearance on a racecourse of Sprinter Sacre is surprising. Only the foolhardy could contemplate backing him, meaning Vibrato Valtat is more likely to spoil the party.

FRIDAY – APRIL 24th:

Sandown: 1.30: As always the Esher Cup sets punters with a knotty puzzle. Tom Hark finished strongly in a valuable handicap at Musselburgh early in the month (clashes swords with the second again), looking likely to improve for the experience. He faces several likely lads but should give a good account.

2.00: Postponed should make his mark at this level this season, but his reappearance over ten furlongs, as opposed to twelve, suggests he might be found out on his seasonal debut. Cannock Chase looks more likely to relish the trip and conditions and would be preferred, but again fitness has to be taken on trust. Western Hymn makes up the trio from which the winner is likely to emerge. Tullius really requires more give in the ground.

2.30: Shifting Power appeals as the type to improve for his third season and on ground he likes, is taken to open his account for the year. Here Comes When is likely to find this surface on the lively side. Penalties threaten to make life tough for Bow Creek and Custom Cut.

3.00: Not only does Commemorative line up here with the best form but he is also subject to a positive message. Recent work with a couple of high-profile inmates means a 2lbs penalty should not prevent him from succeeding.

4.45: Although only the winner of a Wolverhampton maiden in December, Jack Hobbs won a race that looks particular solid (has thrown up three winners). Apparently he is expected to step up further and make light of his mark of 85. Clearly the handicapper was not fooled and would have had explaining to do had he accorded a higher rating to a horse his stable still feel is well-treated. With a similar profile, Stravagante looks the biggest danger.

SATURDAY – APRIL 18th:

Newbury: 1.45: Romsdal had the ideal preparation for this when winning the Listed Magnolia stakes at Kempton last month over an inadequate trip. Clearly this distance will suit and he should be spot-on for what represents a much sterner test – particularly against Arab Spring who was progressive this time last year before tamely fizzling out in the Princes’s Of Wales at Newmarket in July. Talked of as a possible Arc contender beforehand, and not seen since and kept in training by a yard that excels with horses of his type, his inclusion here looks significant.

2.15: Tiggy Wiggy stands out in the Fred Darling; however there is the small matter of her stamina to address. Whether she lasts this seven or not the mile of the Guineas is likely to be beyond her.

2.50: The Greenham has attracted a cracking line-up: Belardo (apparently done well over the winter), Ivawood (not guaranteed to dominate in quite the way he did as a juvenile), Estidhkaar (not considered to be the best three-year-old in the Hannon yard but still a high class colt), Fannaan (very likeable but has something to find), Dick Whittington (form on the fringe of the highest level) and Toocoolforschool (another that has apparently wintered well; will stay and could be the fly in the ointment) comprise the meat of this Group 3. Considering the quality of the opposition, current prices install Ivawood at a very short price.

3.25: Invariably running well in tight events of this nature, it’s about time Ayaar lifted a high-profile handicap. Reasonably treated, his story so far has to be on the premises without actually breaking through. His low draw may be against him now and preference is for the unexposed Dream Spirit. A host of dangers can be nominated, making this a race for small stakes interest only.

4.35: Plenty line up here having shown promise and with classy pedigrees. Two that will not line-up unfancied are Keble and Intilaaq, but at this stage only a brave man would disregard the remainder of the field.

5.10: Narrowly beaten on debut at Newmarket in October (probably would have won for a smack), Wheat Sheaf sets a fair standard here. Providing the stable’s representative Ooty Hill runs with credit on Friday (by that he should win or go close), he should be tough to beat in what looks the weaker of the two divisions of this maiden.

Thirsk: 5.05: Not seen since Royal Ascot, Appleberry has been given a real chance by the handicapper from a mark of 89. She was not disgraced in high-class company last season and any market move in her direction would be significant.

Ayr: 2.35: Lightly raced this season and on the all-important ground he prefers, Sign Of A Victory is a stable fancy to continue the current form of his yard and could be too good for his opponents in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.

NEWBURY GREENHAM MEETING – APRIL 17th:

The show moves on to Newbury where it is interesting stuff but not that inviting from a punter’s perspective. Last year’s winner Lucky Beggar – who had a satisfactory pipe-opener at Doncaster – and Robot Boy – who was below his best at Musselburgh on his return but is liable to improve – look the two in the sprint at 3.55. With the accent on unraced maidens by and large the card is message dependent and even then it does not look straightforward. So it’s likely to be a quiet day in this neck of the woods.

The Conditions Stakes at 2.50 may present an angle with which to work where, despite finishing third in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile, Winters Moon will need to be at her best to overcome the likeable colt Ooty Hill. Having created a big impression at Newmarket last October, the son of Dubawi could be a Derby candidate (will miss the Guineas) and has apparently wintered well. Fast ground would not be ideal for Oooty Hill, but although it is drying out all the time, the surface should not be a problem. Won last year by the smart Western Hymn, this again looks a quality affair. The inclusion of Star Of Seville (like Winters Moon, a filly) adds spice to what should be an interesting renewal, for which Ooty Hill is the selection but not necessarily a bet.

NEWMARKET CRAVEN MEETING – APRIL 16th:

2.20: As usual – at least on paper – the field for the Wood Ditton looks chock-full of potential stars. Plenty make appeal on pedigree but so often this is a race that fails to live up to expectations. Take away the number cloths and Exosphere, Almohtaseb, Barreesh and Argus are amongst those to take the eye – as does Fallen For A Star. However, it is the last-named stable mate, Markstein that is likely to capture the lion’s share of market support if reports are to be believed. By Raven’s Pass he will relish this ground and has apparently been working with a great deal of zest prior to his debut.

3.30: A big improver last year, Music Master gets a chance in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes to consolidate his close third in the Group 1 Sprint at Haydock in October.

4.05: The Craven has attracted a decent field with established form represented by War Envoy (fit from a recent run) and Nafaqa (second in the Royal Lodge to Elm Park – who, incidentally, is reported to be in fine fettle currently at home) and the inclusion of likely improvers Aces and Moheet.

4.40: Not disgraced behind genuine Group 1 performers last year (Australia twice and The Grey Gatsby), Arod is the interesting participant in the Earl Of Sefton. Unlikely to fail for lack of a run he will appreciate this drop in grade.

5.40: Traditionally a hot handicap for three-year-olds, Mohatem, who is sure to handle this quick surface, makes the most appeal against several rivals that could be potentially well-in for future tilts at high-profile handicaps of this nature.

NEWMARKET CRAVEN MEETING – APRIL 15th:

Here we are again! In many eyes it’s the start of the Flat as we embark on a frenetic week of trials at Newmarket and Newbury. A word of caution to those that can’t wait to hit the ground running: It’s a long season and plenty of fingers tend to get burned at this time of year! If we can identify a couple of bets on the week I shall be pleased but I intend to pace myself and not to get carried away – either metaphorically or physically.
By all accounts after a mild winter the Newmarket stables are pretty forward this season – John Gosden’s is reported to be raring to go so there should be no obvious reason to oppose the likely odds-on favourite Faydhan in the Free Handicap, who does not appear to face tough opposition. Fit from a recent win at the Curragh, The Warrior is another short-priced candidate likely to oblige in the Tattersalls Millions Sprint at 2.55. Neither will carry my cash!

4.05: Osaila may lack the scope of some of her rivals in the Nell Gwyn but her juvenile form is the best on offer and she deserves her place at the head of the market. This trip of seven furlongs may be on the sharp side for Beautiful Romance and Lady Correspondent, both of whom looked useful in backend maidens last season. On the other hand there has to be a slight doubt about Terror’s stamina as, with a quick pedigree and a turn of foot to match, sprinting may be her sphere. Mark Johnston’s string appears to be in form so Muraaqaba may just finish in front of fillies she will struggle to beat later in the season. In all this looks a tricky contest to solve.

4.40: Golden Horn is the first of what is sure to be a hatful of tips on the week. There was nothing wrong with his maiden win last year from Storm The Stars (every chance in the maiden half an hour later) but it will need improving upon in this Listed event. However this is not the strongest renewal of the Feilden so, without going overboard he is the selection.

5.40: Salt Island concluded his first season with a decent effort at Doncaster in listed company on only his second start. He should be suited by this firmer surface and with his stable in form looks like the one to beat in a hard race. At a price, look out for Navigate who looks reasonably treated from his current mark having looked as if seven was a bridge too far and is now racing over a trip he has won over.

GRAND NATIONAL DAY – April 10th:

Aintree: 1.30: Parlour Games can emerge from a strong Grade 1 field and start the day in the best possible way for Tony McCoy and his supporters. Runner-up to Windsor Park in the Neptune when Nicholas Canyon was third, a win in the Challow and a Grade 2 at Cheltenham make him the logical selection. He also has the advantage of a Flat racing pedigree that will ensure he handles the quick surface. They have been patient with Three Musketeers who looks a good prospect but who may lack the pace of Parlour Games.

2.05: God’s Own is not always the safest betting option but with the ground a major factor in his favour his chance here does look clear-cut.

2.50: Three of the World Hurdle principals renew rivalry here but calling the order in which they are likely to finish is not straightforward. It was Cole Harden’s day at Cheltenham, but against Aintree winners Zarkandar and Whisper (won this last year) he is not certain to confirm that form. Zarkandar has the ability but his attitude in a tight finish is questionable. After only two runs this season Whisper will line up fresher than most and can step up on his ten lengths fifth at Cheltenham. Those in search of alternatives from the World Hurdle could do worse than consider the consistent Henryville who may have a few pounds to find but looks sure to run his race and is temptingly priced.

4.15: So here we are again; one more – one less! The usual rules apply; chief amongst them has to be the one governed by Lady Luck. With Lord Windermere and Many Clouds (both of whom are hard to fancy) anchoring the weights it is tempting to think that from a punters’ prospective the race has a reasonable shape to it. Rocky Creek ran well enough last year until tiring but there are reasons to believe that after a wind operation and a light campaign geared to this one day, we might see a different animal this time round. Based on an emphatic win at Kempton in February he looks to have lost none of his ability and enters the fray as the most interesting contender. A big run from First Lieutenant would not surprise.

Lingfield: 3.00: Trip To Paris might just about have won the Rosebery at Kempton a fortnight ago with a clear run. Even taking that form at face value it looks reasonably strong and he is taken to gain compensation over this slightly longer trip and from the same mark.

3.40: Fanciful Angel went into the notebook after narrowly failing on his seasonal debut when third to Lexington Times here last month. A 3lbs pull entitles him to overturn form that has been franked with the fourth (Four Seasons) and the winner occupying first and third in last week’s 3 Year Old Championship. Therefore, although it is surprising it could be significant that Richard Hughes elects to overlook what looks like strong form to partner Lexington Time’s stable mate Misterioso.

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING: Day Two – April 9th:

2.15: Quick ground on a sharp course is likely to suit the Flat-racing types over and above the more traditionally-bred National Hunt horses. For that reason the undoubtedly useful Glingerburn may struggle against Qewy and Cardinal Walter. These two met at Newbury in February when penalised Cardinal Walter came off second best but there is reason to believe that this highly-rated son of Cape Cross (a facile winner since) may force the issue this time on 6lbs better terms. Whatever the outcome between them, both have progressed since their Newbury encounter to post decent efforts and faced with ideal conditions here they could be the two to concentrate on.

3.25: Third in the Ryanair at the Festival, Don Cossack is preferred to Champagne Fever in this Grade 1. Until they prove otherwise it seems that Sire De Grugy, Al Ferof and Cue Card represent bygone days. Baldur Succes seems best in small fields whilst Johns Spirit, who ran so well in the King George on Boxing Day, is held by Don Cossack on Cheltenham running.

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING: Day One – April 8th:

1.40: Josses Hill may not be everyone’s idea of the consummate chaser but he did produce a personal best over fences at Cheltenham in the Arkle and there is every reason to assume he will progress again over this extra trip. Five lengths behind Josses Hill in the Arkle after more use was made of him, Vibrato Valtat looks a serious threat. However, unlike Josses Hill he is not guaranteed to pull out more over this extended trip.

2.15: After Josses Hill, Nicky Henderson has a great chance of hitting the blocks running with Hargam here. With the ground drying out all the time Hargam is almost sure to face ideal conditions and in any case little improvement is required on his excellent third in the Triumph Hurdle to grab this Grade 1. He has plenty in hand of Devilment on Cheltenham form. More danger is likely to come from All Yours (closely matched with Bouvereuil on their Fred Winter running but slightly hampered then and the choice of the stable jockey) and Bristol De Mai, who has been set some stiff tasks against older horses in two of his three runs over here since being imported from France. He will appreciate this return to his own age group but for win purposes might find the ground and the track on the quick side.

2.50: Back to ideal conditions last year’s winner Silviniaco Conti gets his chance to recover the winning thread here and by rights should surely be favourite. Surely we can now accept Silviniaco Conti a): doesn’t stay further than three miles and b): doesn’t show his best at Cheltenham. Therefore his run in the Gold Cup is best disregarded. Assuming the race has not left its mark he can reverse form with Holywell – who had a hard race at the Festival – and account for the spring mare that is Ma Filleule who, whilst respected, needs a personal best to score. The rest will struggle.

3.25: The extra four furlongs often turns Champion Hurdle form on its head here but the three principals in the betting this year all look as if it the trip will further their causes. We know Rock On Ruby is at his best over two-and-a-half and the trip is unlikely to hamper either Jezki (ran out of steam in the Champion having taken on Fagheen some way out) or Arctic Fire who had a comparatively easier run through beaten horses at the death. Perm any one from three…

5.15: Relatively fresh Call The Cops – who rattles off quick ground – gets another chance to arrive on the scene with all sirens blazing after only a 7lbs rise for winning the Pertemps Final. However, weight rises are designed to stop winners from following up and the suspicion is something may be lurking in the pack. A winner of a Grade 1 at this meeting last year, Lac Fontana has some high profile names on his gun belt and several form lines make him interesting. With excuses in place after a rough passage at Cheltenham last time he looks poised to run well, particularly in view of the weight allowance his more than capable rider receives, meaning he is in receipt of 1lb from Call The Cops.

GOOD FRIDAY APRIL 3rd:

Lingfield: 1.40: Fit from a recent fourth in Chantilly and holding Lamar (this trip may be on the sharp side but otherwise her recent second to Grendisar in the Winter Derby Trial sets the standard) on their run in a Listed over this trip at Deauville in December, from an ideal draw Fresles makes plenty of appeal. However, although a winner at seven there is the slightest suspicion that a truly run contest may stretch her stamina limitations and therein lies the rub. With the trip of concern for Fresles and Lamar we are left with fillies that have otherwise won in lesser company and have it all to prove at this level

2.10: A firework out of the gate who will probably appreciate this drop back in trip, Chookie Royale threatens to lead his rivals a merry dance in the early stages of this conditions stakes but the progressive Pretend threatens to scythe him down in the closing stages. A strong finisher over five last time, a return to this trip should be ideal for Pretend who is hard to oppose. Both he and Chookie Royale have a draw advantage and therefore should run their races and can dominate.

2.40: After winning the dress rehearsal last month possible Guineas candidate (has a long way to go before he can viewed as a serious contender) Lexington Times faces tougher opposition now. Four Season was only just over a length behind in fourth and whilst he will probably struggle to overturn that form, this step up to a mile will play to his strengths. The fact he does not carry the first colours means the unexposed Emirates Skycargo ought to be respected. Along with the strapping Tempus Temporis his presence adds weight to what looks like a hot heat.

3.15: With a 10lbs pull in his favour for less than a length when they last met in February, Sovereign Debt has to be fancied to overturn that form with Mindyourownbusiness. These two ought to have the edge over Irish challenger Captain Joy and the rest.

3.45: Tryster only has to reproduce his Winter Derby form to take this from Grendisar – his main challenger then and likely to be so again.

4.15: On what could be a big day for the Charlie Appleby yard, Portamento is another with serious claims here in what looks like a tight contest. They are throwing the kitchen sink at the desperately disappointing attitude-laden Squats, whose victory would not be a total surprise but who is hard to support after so many reversals. A wide draw is no help for Primrose Valley who may struggle to confirm recent form with Harry Hurricane and more importantly Blue Aegean (who carries the first colours of Godolphin and on these revised terms could become a serious contender).

4.45: Fielding the front two in the betting, once again Godolphin looks to hold the key. Anglophile and Hidden Gold have similar profiles; preference has to be for the stoutly-bred Anglophile who has already won over this extended trip.

Musselburgh: 2.25: Decent on the Flat, Ladbroke Hurdle winner Bayan gets another chance at a valuable prize here from what appears to be a reasonable mark (3lbs lower than when last seen on the level in September at Leopardstown and only beaten a little over three lengths). The maths suggests he is the one to beat once more.

3.30: As there is little between Blaine and Robot Boy on known form this looks like a coin flip of a race between the two.

WEEKEND MARCH 28th/29th:

Saturday: Doncaster: 2.00: Tullius ought to win a depleted Doncaster Mile, although by word of caution his best form is on a soft surface.

2.35: The ground may have the last word once again here with leading fancies Aetna and Jack Dexter (best days may be behind him) both at their best on soft. Drying ground would aid Astaire (ran his best race of the season first time last season but rather lost his way afterwards) and Naadirr (not out of contention even with a penalty) who makes plenty of appeal.

3.10: Pre-race players have seized on Certificate for this and despite the numbers, with his stable in such fine form, his chance looks solid. On a day when several high profile handicaps give the impression they may be easier to solve than history dictates, he is the selection. Donny Rover may enter calculations.

3.45: Quality is represented by Mange All, Moohaarib and GM Hopkins who are closely weighted. Bookmakers seem to have taken something of a chance with Belgian Bill (had several options over the weekend) who has been in great form in Dubai this winter and would be leniently treated if able to reproduce that here.

Kempton: 2.50: From a stable firing on all cylinders New Year’s Night looks relatively well treated from only a 3lb higher mark than when winning with some ease at Lingfield a fortnight ago. On the minus side this is a deeper race and all three attempts on this course have resulted in defeat – a statistic that may be coincidental. He is the obvious choice without appealing at the price.

4.35: Although the form pick, American Hope’s record of one win from nine attempts (has often looked his own worst enemy without doing too much wrong) sounds a note of warning. With Ninjago returning from a fruitless trip to Dubai and the unreliable Valbchek only a bet for the brave, Baddilini, who is in great form at present, may be the safest option.

Those of a nervous disposition may care to look away now. But for those of us that have followed its progress from January onward, this is the day when the Carnival that is Meydan culminates. On a glittering night the gold drips from the podium, starting with the Godolphin Mile at 12.40. After an excellent Carnival, Tamarkuz bids for a four-timer. A natural on dirt this will be his toughest task but he has beaten several of these already on the run up. The likes of Free Wheeling and Dark Emerald face dirt for the first time, whilst bred-for-the-job Sloane Avenue has a dirt pedigree but a wide draw and no experience. Therefore his biggest danger could be Frankyfourfingers, who although beaten last time when finding African Story and Prince Bishop too strong, will appreciate this drop in trip (and possibly grade) and could return to his best now, in which case he looks overpriced. Both he and Tamarkuz are well drawn.

1.15: Brown Panther is the one to beat here and no one will begrudge victory to his sporting and enthusiastic owners. However fast ground and a wide draw hardens the task so Bathyrhon, and to a lesser extent from an equally bad box (partnered by a jockey that is desperate to race wide in any case), Rio Tigre look like each-way pin money alternatives.

1.55: The trip of the UAE Derby may stretch Maftool who will be hard-pressed to confirm Guineas form with Mubtaahij. However, the presence of progressive Japanese contender Golden Barrows and possibly prolific ex-Uruguayan star Sir Fever, who shaped with promise when second to Mubtaahij on debut here and now in first-time blinkers, makes this hard to call.

2.30: With the form of the sprinters in the Al Quoz tying in, separating them is tough. However, a couple step into the ring for the first time and it could pay to concentrate on them. Now based in Hong Kong where he is rapidly making a name for himself, the Wetherby’s Super Sprint winner of two years ago when with Richard Fahey, Peniaphobia, sets the standard. However, he is closely matched with Bundle Of Joy after the two battled out a Group 1 at Sha Tin in January. These two could easily dominate again. Last year’s winner Amber Sky deserves respect, although it seems fair to say not everything has gone to plan since that win. Of the rest a relatively fresh Via Africa is interesting. Noted coming back for more after losing his place three weeks ago when beaten just over three lengths by Sir Maximilian on his first run for ten months, with winning Grade 1 form to his credit in South Africa, although that needs improving upon he represents value at a double-figure price.

3.05: A tough renewal of the Golden Shaheen looks booked for one of those bussed-in for the occasion: Secret Circle (tough but an infrequent winner), Salutos Amigos or Lucky Nine looking the obvious contenders.

3.40: The presence of recent winners Solow and Cladocera means the Dubai Turf could be dominated by fillies but these two face a rise in grade. From left-field and not seen since winning the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes at Arlington in August, apparently the much improved Euro Charline has been flying of late and can spring a surprise. Top-rated The Grey Gatsby may be better over slightly further and later in the season.

4.15: Arguably given too much to do in the Arc, Harp Star gets her chance now but faces hot opposition. There is little between the quality trio of Dolniya, Flintshire and Main Sequence. The latter has blossomed since moving to America but has to prove he can transfer that form to what is now foreign soil. The other principal in the betting, Designs On Rome, has yet to win at this trip in a race that, without an obvious pacemaker, could turn into a scrappy but quality contest.

5.00: And so to the World Cup, for which Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome – narrowly denied in the Breeders’ Cup Classic – undoubtedly has the best qualifications, particularly on dirt. With impressive form on dirt in Japan, Hokko Tarmae is seen as a bigger danger than dirt debutant Epiphaneia.

SUNDAY 29th March: Ascot: 2.30: Puffin Billy looks to be attempting mission impossible in trying to concede 10lbs to Thomas Crapper in this novice chase.

Doncaster 5.00: Fit from two all-weather spins, Viewpoint has plummeted to a tempting level on turf which he may be in a position to exploit against modest opposition.

SATURDAY MARCH 21st:

Newbury: 2.35: Based on her close second to the now 130 plus-rated As De Mee at Leicester, Tara Mist could be thrown in with the proverbial pitchfork in this fiercely competitive mares’ Listed handicap. Continuing the pitchfork metaphor I am rather clutching at straws as she faces several mares that are on an upwards spiral. Not normally an event to interest yours truly, her best form is over this extended trip and she represents value at a double-figure price.

3.45: Taking into account two of his three spins over hurdles, Storm Force Ten currently looks well treated. His debut effort at Sandown when a decent second to Bivouac, and his latest fourth to subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Peace And Co at that track indicates a mark of 123 should put him in here with an outstanding chance. However, sandwiched between those runs was a dismal effort at Kempton for which no palpable excuse has been forthcoming. This extended trip is also something of an unknown. All in all the best we can say is that he is a dubious form pick that may be capable of better than we have seen so far.

FRIDAY MARCH 20th:

This weekend promises to be as quiet as next week promises to be busy.
Newbury stages its last National Hunt fixture of the year – meaning directly after the Craven at Newmarket they will next be in action for the Greenham meeting in April.
We might salvage something from the current jumping season between now and then. Always well regarded, after a fair debut over fences at Haydock, at a similar track (also has good hurdles form there) Wuff could be worth a second look in the 3.45. He is less exposed than many of his rivals and could have been underestimated by the handicapper.

SATURDAY MARCH 14th:

Although he has something to find with Grendisar on their running of three weeks ago, Cloudscape – useful this time last year but fragile on turf – is interesting in the Winter Derby at 3.05 at Lingfield. Suited by an artificial surface, after a gentle return to action he can at least bridge the gap with Grendisar with that run under his belt. In a hotly contested event where dangers lurk aplenty, he is only a tentative selection.

Sugar Baron appears to only have Port Melon to beat at Kempton in the 4.05 and is taken to concede weight to his main rival.

CHELTENHAM FRIDAY MARCH 13th:

3.20: One way or another, the Gold Cup hinges on the conclusion drawn over the horse with the best form: Silviniaco Conti. Yet to win at this course or over this trip (reasons to feel he does not quite stay), this year’s line-up appears to be tougher than last year’s so whatever his stable claim, despite being the highest rated runner in the field, he represents the angle for those wishing to look elsewhere. Those that keep the faith will point to his record this season (winning his second King George and before that the Betfair), claiming he has been kept fresh and looks a more powerful competitor now than when running on empty from the last twelve months ago. To this observer he looks a weak favourite. Similarly Bobs Worth (surely his best is behind him at the age of ten), last year’s winner Lord Windermere, The Giant Bolster and Holywell look to fall short of the required standard. Djakadam is something of a wild card that deserves respect but will need to better anything so far achieved. A rough line through Houblon Des Obeaux gives the two improvers Many Clouds and Coneygree the same sort of chance. Both are likely to figure at the business end but Lexus winner Road To Riches – who has gone from strength to strength this season – may prove too street wise. Coneygree (impervious to ground) and Many Clouds can follow him home.

The supporting card is hard. After an eye-catching run at Ascot last time, Le Mercurey must have a chance in the 4.40 but is still vulnerable from top weight. Peace And Co looks a worthy Triumph Hurdle favourite but for those not already on, makes limited appeal at the price. Quick Jack looks well handicapped in the Vincent O’Brien at 2.05 – particularly on Flat form with Big Easy.

THURSDAY MARCH 12th:

Cheltenham: 1.30: All roads of thinking lead to Vautour as he holds Apache Stronghold and therefore Valseur Lido, leaving only Ptit Zig as the most obvious obstacle between him and victory here. Ptit Zig lines up after an uncharacteristic slip at Ascot last time but the strength of the Irish challenge looks formidable.

2.05: This looks wide open and extremely competitive. Given his connections Edeymi is a precautionary favourite at present, particularly after an eye-catching run behind Dawalan last time at Musselburgh. Dawalan – who often only does enough – has progressed this season with this step up in trip but his present mark requires a monumental effort. Call The Cops enters calculations as a relatively fresh horse that dotted up last time but may struggle to confirm Kempton form with Brother Brian, another that has trodden a soft road this season and is taken to come out on top again. Drying ground will not be against him.

2.40: This is a hot Ryanair: prolific Irish winner Don Cossack, spring mare Ma Filleule, who is running into form and has three lengths plus to find on Balder Succes, and Johns Spirit, who ran off his face in the King George until lack of stamina curtailed him, look to be the protagonists. It may be dangerous to nominate Ma Filleule to overturn Ascot form with Balder Succes (so often in such circumstances form is confirmed) but the message from the Henderson yard is particular strong. This does represent a tough task for her as her rivals will put her to the sword but she gets the nod.

3.20: Again there are no easy answers to this – another top class event chock-full of possibilities. However, Lieutenant Colonel lines up with Grade 1 form to his credit and has a turn of foot that may prove crucial. Saphir Du Rheu and Whisper could be the biggest dangers.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 11th:

Cheltenham: 1.30: In keeping with the rest of the card, shuffling through the runners in the deck here is no easy matter. With only a neck separating Parlour Games and Vyta Du Roc at Newbury, Nichols Canyon (close with Windsor Park) and Outlander spearheading a strong Irish challenge, and Beast Of Burden and Ordo Ab Chao looking like they have more to offer than we have seen so far – good luck to anyone attempting to solve this.

2.05: Grade 1 winner Don Poli lines up with a big home reputation and carrying plenty of confidence. After the successes of the stable on the first day it is hard to argue. Kings Palace appears to present the biggest obstacle.

2.40: Tony Martin sets something of a puzzle here with his two runners: Blackmail and Marinero that could, in typical Martin style, be ahead of the handicapper.

3.20: Despite an indifferent return at Ascot when looking very fit, the message for Sprinter Sacre is extremely positive. He and Sire De Grugy have to roll back the years to figure once again at this level, something history suggests is unlikely. Sire De Grugy did not look like a horse that was enjoying himself at Chepstow and Sprinter Sacre bled after Ascot. At their best they would be too good but… Dodging Bullets and Champagne Fever are the obvious alternatives.

4.40: Once again we are presented with a minefield of a handicap. Gordon Elliott fields two interesting participants in Thunder Zone and Hostile Fire, both of whom will be suited by drying ground.

TUESDAY MARCH 10th:

Cheltenham: 1.30: So impressive have they been in the lead-up to this, it is hard to see beyond the front two in the betting here. Douvan has been imperious in his two hurdle races in Ireland winning with consummate ease; those looking to oppose him might take some succour from the fact those victories have been on right-handed tracks. That may prove to be a straw that floats in the wind rather than one to clutch at – but it is worth mentioning. The more experienced L’ami Serge arguably has better form claims but has not won with quite the same ease as Douvan, although he has faced stronger opposition. Both have done their racing on softer ground than they will encounter now. Looking beyond them, Jollyallan (the choice of McCoy over Alvisio Ville whom he has ridden) appears to have a little to find with the two principals. Shaneshill could be the biggest danger now he returns to two miles (appeared to be outstayed last time) but as a Mullins inmate he has of course been by-passed by Walsh. Qewy has a useful turn of foot that he can utilise on this faster ground but by and large we are judging him on one run that may be misleading.

2.05: They are telling us Un De Sceaux is a good thing for the Arkle. Those reluctant to buy money at a meeting that often pays scant respect to short-priced favourites will be looking elsewhere. On the minus side the favourite has fallen once and won his other two chases at long odds-on, including when accounting for Grade 1 winner Clarcam (re-opposes here) last time. Vibrato Valtat is the obvious alternative – the rest are required to find hitherto un-shown form to win.

2.40: Three miles and a bit on drying ground may scupper several out-and-out sloggers here. Although the handicapper has not exactly been lenient by putting Ned Stark up by 6lbs for winning at Wetherby at the end of January that was a mighty performance by a up-and-coming staying chaser likely to make his mark in future high-profile handicaps. He is potentially the class act. However, saved for this and closely matched with Ned Stark on a line through Kaki De La Pree, but twice the price, Gevrey Chambertin, who has form on this sounder surface and responded positively to first-time blinkers at Newbury in December, looks worth chancing with the headgear back on.

3.20: This is the big day for Faugheen who was so impressive in the Neptune over two-and-a-half at last year’s Festival. A winner at two he often takes time to warm up in his races – something he cannot afford in a Champion Hurdle. The dying ground will suit last year’s ‘ghost winner’ The New One, although it threatens to be close between him and Jezki once again. Despite his admirable record it is surely asking too much of Hurricane Fly to roll back the years, particularly in view of his preference for racing at home. Of the rest the rapidly improving Kitten Rock could run better than his price but McCoy prefers Jezki and this is not a race that favours five-year-olds.

4.00: It is inconceivable that Annie Power will fail for lack of a recent run. So far is she in front of her rivals that only a bolt from the blue looks likely to stop her in what is a strong line-up for the Mares’ Hurdle.

4.40: Comparatively classy Very Wood looks worthy of favouritism here in an event where stamina is at a premium. That said betting on horses trying four miles for the first time and amateur ridden is surely for the brave or the foolhardy.

5.15: This looks a tough race to bring down the first day proceedings. Those at the head of the betting have to a large extent shown their hands to the handicapper so further improvement is required. In the case of Thomas Crapper and Generous Ransom (everything clicked right last time) it may be forthcoming but Dromnea has progressed throughout the season (would have been closer in Grade 2 Flyingbolt but for a mistake at the last over inadequate trip) and is a tentative selection at a double-figure price.

SATURDAY MARCH 7th:

Sandown: 3.10: The troops are out in force for the Imperial Cup – traditionally the last opportunity of a pop for punters before the Cheltenham Festival next week. The unbeaten Bidourey bids to maintain an excellent record for a stable that has dominated this event over the years; however, as a four-year-old it should be noted he is 8lbs higher up the handicap than it appears, meaning he is technically conceding weight to several rivals with a similar profile. One of those – recent Ascot winner (form franked on Friday) Thistlecrack, who is unbeaten over this trip – makes plenty of appeal. Given the recent run of successes on Saturdays enjoyed by the Nicholls yard, Calipto may shade favouritism come race time but the value in a fierce contest appears to lie with Thistlecrack.

Wolverhampton: 2.15: It’s billed as trials day at the Midlands track – the card certainly starts with a humdinger. Intransigent went in the notebook after his run at Lingfield last time. Over this trip and more favourably drawn now, he should run his race. However this is a tough assignment and he only holds each-way claims. Last year’s winner Chookie Royale and Sovereign Debt are among many serious rivals. The doubly represented Marco Botti (whose horses are in fine form) may hold the key here with former Rockfel winner Al Thakhira, who, partnered by Frankie Dettori and over her optimum trip, will surely be fit for her debut run in a contest she is capable of winning. The stable’s other contender Grey Mirage is hard to win with.

2.50: The Lincoln Trial presents another knotty problem for would-be punters. Many will consider Mindurownbusiness as the one to beat on recent form but it is not a given he will confirm that against Melvin The Grate and Don’t Call Me. The presence of Pearl Nation and Billingsgate means this is hard to predict with confidence.

Meydan: They stage trials of a different variety in Dubai where it’s Super Saturday – the last meeting before World Cup Day at the end of the month. A seemingly reformed Tamarkuz has looked a dirt monster since breaking on terms and blitzing his rivals on the run-up to this. Well-drawn again, chances are he will flash out and be gone once more in 2.20.
James Doyle has elected to partner Sky Hunter in preference to True Story in the Group 2 on turf at 2.55. The former French Derby third ended last season on a high at Newbury and should be capable of accounting for Umgiyo, Cooptado and Sheikzayedroad.
Frankyfourfingers and Prince Bishop renew rivalry in the 3.30 and as cases can be made for both, it is a tricky call.
Hunter’s Light, who has been in sparkling form at the Carnival, bids for a three-timer in the curtain call at 4.05 but faces the beast that is Vercingetorix, who should be a notch too good.

FRIDAY MARCH 6th:

Sandown: 4.00: On the limited evidence available Lessons In Milan looks well handicapped, something that should enable him to win this. An eye-catching third at Ascot to stable mate Out Sam over this trip was followed by a very easy win at Lingfield last time. Although against more experienced rivals here, his class should be crucial.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28th:

It’s the last day of the worst month of the year! With it comes a hard set of racing programmes, so, swerving a couple of obvious but fragile selections, investment ought to be kept to a minimum.

LINGFIELD: 4.05: Although he picked up ground in the straight, a bad draw, allied to considerable kick-back, did not assist Smoothtalkinrascal last time at Chelmsford City. Racing from a tempting mark, it could be a different story now. All his best form has been over the minimum trip, and with the draw in his favour this time he is of some interest. Not always the safest of betting propositions (he can miss the break), he could be worth chancing at a double figure price.

NEWBURY: 1.45: In a race that for various reasons has attracted those on the easy list, Provo is the one to catch the eye. Having been prominent for a long way here three weeks ago over three miles, this drop in trip should suit.

2.50: This is the kind of puzzling race that encapsulates the day. However, I can pass on a word for Royal Guardsman, for whom a case can be constructed, particularly when one looks at his hurdle and bumper form before he attempted a largely unsuccessful spell over fences. A recent run has sharpened him up and, although outsider of the field in the ante-post market, it would be no surprise to see him attract some support and run accordingly.

DONCASTER: 1.25: In what looks like a two-horse affair, Cardinal Walter is given the nod over Fort Worth. Runner-up in a hot maiden at Newbury three weeks ago, this slight rise in trip should help.

MEYDAN FEBRUARY 26th:
2.45: As several could win on bits of form that they are not guaranteed to reproduce, it is hard to get enthusiastic about the day’s first event. As it stands Rafeej arguably has the best credentials but having apparently gurgled in running last time he cannot be backed with any confidence. In any event he is closely weighted with Nawwaar on their running here in December. Strategical and Ninjago try dirt for the first time and the other two appear equally dodgy.

3.20: The first three in the betting – One Man Band, Year Of Glory and Dubai Iconic – have obvious chances without looking sufficiently well in to look like punting material. Conquerant can enter the equation on revised terms after finishing second to One Man Band last time.

3.55: Local Time is presented with another chance to add to her tally in the desert in this Group 3 over a trip that should suit on running style but that has to be a concern on pedigree. With a cracking attitude, she will probably oblige but straw-clutchers in search of a bigger price prospect may conclude this trip will suit the striking Yodelling. She has plenty to find with Local Time and Good Place on their running here three weeks ago but is open to improvement in first time blinkers and therefore maybe the one to provide a shock if one is in store.

4.30: Paul Hanagan’s apparent reluctance to renew his association with Mastermind in favour of Tashbeeh is probably a crucial factor here. With most salient form lines tying in to Mastermind it seems reasonable to expect a bold showing from Tashbeeh who is well drawn but needs to hit the gates running on this his first appearance outside Australia.

5.05: After finishing in the exhausts of Faulkener and Safety Check with valid excuses (would only have finished closer), Shaishee may be a safer alternative than the ex-American Pazolini who, for all his record in the US (when on lasix), hardly inspires confidence in a first time tongue-tie.

5.40: Safety Check has been one of the stars of the Carnival so far, winning both his races with what looked like something to spare. This leap up to Group 2 company represents a step up but he appeals as the sort to stay with until beaten. According to official figures Darwin and Outstrip are the dangers but both have to bounce back to justify elevated ratings, meaning Soumillon rejects Anaerobio (closely coupled with Dark Emerald on last week’s runs) and Johann Strauss may hold better place prospects.

6.15: Belgian Bill has excellent prospects of reversing form with Tha’ir but after two fair spins round here, Norwegian Derby winner Eye In The Sky looks interesting, particularly as Soumillon seems to have elected to take the ride in preference to Flying The Flag.

KEMPTON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21st:

2.35: Irish Saint is taken to exploit any weakness in God’s Own whose form of late demands improvement if he is to figure here. Thought to be marginally in need of the run at Sandown last time, Irish Saint jumped soundly and was only narrowly defied. He should be spot on for this.

3.10: After an excellent run at Cheltenham in a race that looks bombproof as regards its form, Vago Collonges is expected to prove too strong for Days Of Heaven (who can be temperamental but whose record fails to match that of the selection in any case) and The Grey Taylor, who takes a hike in class to contest this.

3.45: As the classy contender Easter Day has an obvious chance. Still travelling well when crumpling at Cheltenham’s third-last a month ago he looks favourably weighted, although it is worth cautioning that he has yet to actually win at this trip. The signs are he will get it, but until experiencing the rough-and-tumble of a handicap such as this that is largely conjecture. Fox Appeal is a solid second-best at present but has nothing in hand of the assessor. Le Reve may struggle to follow up on his Sandown win of three weeks ago, particularly from his revised mark which requires a personal best. This is surely a springboard for Godsmejudge, who is better over extreme trips and is likely to be targeted at one of the forthcoming Nationals. Rocky Creek would have a chance if anywhere near back to his best but the signs are that he carries no stable confidence. Last year’s winner (2lbs higher now) and Kempton specialist Bally Legend should not be completely overlooked but still looks up against it. Equipped with first-time cheekpieces, the one that appeals most is Tap Night. Not the safest of betting propositions, he looks worth chancing at current odds after staying-on strongly last time at Cheltenham. Now down amongst the dead men as far as his rating is concerned, he has a real chance if reproducing that latest run.

MEYDAN THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19th:

3.20: Medicean Man returned to action here with a promising run three weeks ago behind Ahtoug, but Hototo, Lancelot Du Lac, Sir Maximilian and Caspian Prince all enter the reckoning on recent form and if fit, High On Life could be included in an ever-growing list. Without any obvious clues, solving this typically tight and competitive handicap is largely reliant on guesswork.

3.55: After chasing home Frankyfourfingers last time, Haatheq takes a drop in grade in this handicap. However in the twilight of his career and from a wide draw, his task is far from straightforward. Cases can be made for Layl and Filfil but with the inclusion of several unknown quantities the race fails to stop there.

4.30: Hunter’s Light will be popular after a taking comeback in a handicap here three weeks ago. Having mixed it in Group class the standard of the rivals he faces in this Listed event is within his compass, but Calling Out (also kept elevated company in France last year) and Umgiyo and Mr Pommeroy threaten to provide testing opposition for a horse that is not wholly convincing.

5.05: I’m Back and Le Bernardin have made giant strides at this year’s Carnival and both have serious claims in this handicap. There should be little between them on running here in early January but although both have progressed to better things since, the handicapper may have the last word now. Given a 6lbs pull with I’m Back for a little over three lengths on this course three weeks ago, Artigiano looks interesting. A decent performer in the UK he acquitted himself well on his debut on dirt (very much a likely candidate for it on pedigree) and is likely to be sharper now. He could be too good for Le Bernardin, who is marginally preferred to I’m Back and Storm Belt.

5.40: A tidy winner of the Cape Verdi three weeks ago, Cladocera should once again be too good for her nearest pursuers on that occasion: Zurigha and Anahita.

6.15: Fourth behind Safety Check a month ago, Anaerobio merits consideration here despite top weight and meeting Eastern Rules (second then) on disadvantageous terms. However, Music Theory comes out the best at the weights and has such a clear-cut chance on these terms that he is hard to ignore.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14th:

Ascot: 3.15: At first glance expensive purchase Padge, who appears well-handicapped from 128, seems the answer to this. However, there is no sign as yet he is going to recoup the £160,000 connections shelled out. A fine-looking type, he races with the choke out and may not be the safest of betting propositions. His first run over hurdles remains his best – a tame effort at Cheltenham, where he looked like a barge on a Sunday cruise, and a scrambling success last time at Taunton have failed to alter that opinion. He may be better over further and with the steadying factor of fences. If this prediction turns out to be wrong, stand by for a bloodless victory. In the belief it may be partially correct value may lie elsewhere and in the shape of Minstrels Gallery, who to an extent has been-there-and-done-that. He ran a reasonable race last time when third at Cheltenham in a competitive handicap and should at least be on the premises here from the same mark.

3.50: Ptit Zig lays an unbeaten record over fences on the line here and should prove hard to beat. A winner over this track and shaping up like a chaser with enormous potential, he should be too classy for Baldur Succes and may have most to feat from Ma Filleule, who has disappointed in her two runs so far this season but who tends to peak at this time of year.

Haydock: This card could be all about Tony McCoy who has excellent chances of riding a big-race treble with At Fishers Cross (2.20), Monbeg Dude (2.55) and Aqalim (3.25). Risking looking foolish (not for the first time!) it is the last-named that appeals to me. He lines up having won two of his hurdle races so far and last time was beaten by a contender in the Grade 2 that is run thirty-five minutes later. A mark of 132 looks fair and he could have several bullets still lodged in the chamber. The possibility of drying ground will also be of help to a son of Raven’s Pass.

4.00: Ballagh showed the transition to Grade 2 company was not beyond him last time at Warwick where he jumped and travelled well before being outpointed from the last by Three Musketeers. Receiving 7lbs from Fletchers Flyer this represents a chance to go one better.

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12th:

Meydan: 2.45: A step up in trip may be the ticket for Lanark who finished strongly last time over a mile to take third behind One Man Band. Clearly he handles dirt and, highly tried here on turf, he enters this handicap as something of an unknown quantity that is open to improvement. Layl was an impressive winner last time and although he gives the impression he has improved for the move to Dubai, he faces a tougher task now and is not certain to confirm placings with Jeeraan, who was having his first run of the season when third.

3.20: This is a tough turf contest in which several can be given chances. Rock Cocktail and Slumdogmillionaire have earned their respective places in the handicap and on the back of good runs last time have claims. Belgian Bill’s latest win has been boosted, however it is questionable whether he is the sort to record back-to-back wins. Pilote may be worth one last spin of the coin from a rare (for him) good draw. He travelled ominously well from a wide position last time when grabbing third place behind Hunter’s Light and may be capable of pulling out a couple of extra pounds now against several rivals with whom he is closely matched.

3.55: If he breaks on terms Maftool (a strong finisher last time after failing to hit the gates) should reverse Trial form with Mubtaahij and Ajwad in the UAE 2000 Guineas.

4.30: A reproduction of his last run would be enough to see 2013 Golden Sheehen winner Reynaldothewizard win this. However, now a pottery nine-year-old, he makes only limited appeal in an otherwise tight affair.

5.05: Third in the Group 1 Grand Prix du Paris and touched off in the Group 2 Prix Neil, Teletext is the class act in the Class 1 handicap – a race in which he appears to have been let in lightly. As this is his first run since September, fitness has to be taken on trust but it seems unlikely connections (who have retained him) would risk him in a handicap if he were thought be below par. He ought to be too good for his opponents. The trick that is Songcraft is always opposable but Excellent Result (closely matched with Al Saham, Fire Fighting and Eye In The Sky and the pick of James Doyle) may emerge as the best of the rest.

5.40: A good horse on his day with a good draw and a proven record on dirt, which his pedigree confirms, Tamarkuz – not always the easiest to predict – has the ability to win this if the pieces slot into place.

6.15: This is a tough finale. With infrequent winners Zahee, Elleval and Ocean Tempest among those with strong claims it may be best to pack up shop for the night.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7th:

Newbury: 1.15: A big day at the Berkshire track opens with a tough-looking novice hurdle. Cardinal Walter and Bouvreuil represent the powerhouses of Messrs Henderson and Nicholls and either could take this. Bouvreuil’s qualifications look marginally better after a fine third in a Sandown handicap on his debut in this country, but Cardinal Walter was impressive at Doncaster and despite the strength of opposition carries stable confidence. In a tough line-up that includes winners and a couple that have posted promise, Bouvreeuil is no more than a selection.

1.50: With the stable at last swinging into gear and with a tasty weight pull against Closing Ceremony on their running at Haydock back in November in his favour, the stage seems set for Milan Bound here. Closing Ceremony may be the victim of his own consistency now but in an event where not too many are feared, it is possible the handicapper has let Provo in lightly. Despite a fourteen month absence his fitness can be virtually guaranteed from his highly effective yard and he may represent the biggest danger.

2.25: The Denman Chase is not easy to solve. Coneygree jumps well but takes on seasoned chasers for the first time. Taquin Du Seiul has so far failed to make the transition from novice company although with his stable firing on all cylinders again he may prove a different proposition now. However, he has proved expensive to follow and his jumping looked sketchy last time. Houblon Des Obeaux and Unioniste would not normally be thought of as good enough in this grade, but the question remains how good a race this may turn out to be.

3.00: Sire De Grugy’s return may add clicks to the turnstiles but is unlikely to fire up the players. Obviously he is the best in the line-up but the percentage call is to swerve such as he when returning after injury. Those in opposition look well below the level he sets and punters looking for alternatives are not sure to lean in the right direction in any event.

3.35: The market domination by the brace of five-year-olds Calipto and Activial means those in search of value do not have to look far to find it. Calipto has the edge over Activial on last year’s form although Activial did take the eye when third in the Ladbroke. Both have the look of horses saved for this – as does On Tour who has solid form and left the impression after his latest win that he was still potentially ahead of the handicapper. He appeals as the best of a hatful of alternative candidates.

4.10: Kings Palace is presented with little more than a leg-stretching exercise in the novice chase – a race only disaster will prevent him from winning.

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 5th:

3.55: After the Group 1 event for Arab horses and a very tough-looking sprint handicap on turf, the UAE 1000 Guineas looks to rest between Local Time and Ad Idem. Only a short-head separated them last time they met here three weeks ago but this step up in trip looks more likely to suit Local Time, who was finishing strongly then and should confirm the placings over this extra furlong. Yodelling offers a threat of sorts, but on this first try on dirt and against rivals that are match-fit her task looks a stiff one.

5.05: Seasoned campaigner here and last year’s runner-up in this event, Star Empire had a perfect prep-race for this when third to Halfaguinea over an inadequate 1m 2f last time. Good run though that was, it is two years since this nine-year-old got his head in front and for win purposes he looks vulnerable. Last seen when a close third in a Group 2 over an extended two miles in France, there is no doubt about Rio Tigre’s stamina or his ability to handle a fast surface and he would be greatly feared if fully fit. Now locally trained, as there are limited opportunities during the Carnival over this trip, it would be a surprise if he is not capable of doing himself justice. However, a wide draw and his unconvincing jockey are causes for concern, meaning everything will have to fall in place in one neat slice. Famous Kid represents a wealth of untapped talent at this trip. Having finished second last time three weeks ago on dirt in a handicap that is working out, Famous Kid (also out in the best seats) receives plenty of weight and enters the reckoning.

5.40: Last year’s World Cup winner, African Story makes his reappearance here in a race that he failed to win last year when beaten by the enigma that is Prince Bishop. With both resurfacing after lengthy breaks it could be a similar story now. Although apparently the class acts (for all that last year’s World Cup was below standard), neither exactly provides collateral for proposed loans, meaning it may pay to look elsewhere. Frankyfourfingers has a couple of lengths to find on Surfer on their running last time but, unlike the winner that day he was having his first run of the season and improvement, particularly over this extended trip, looks guaranteed. Smart in France, he may reverse places, in which case he is liable to run his higher profile rivals very close.

6.15: Ajeeb steps back up to a much more suitable trip after finishing strongly when a close fourth to Hototo in a five furlong sprint here a month ago. Top weight may not prevent him from scoring. Music Theory may have looked slightly unfortunate when third to Safety Check at the beginning of January, but with the runner only pulling out what is necessary, that run threatens to be deceptive. Our Channel should appreciate this drop in trip after pulling too hard last time – a trait that prevents him from realising his full potential. Cheekpieces may also come to his assistance but he could be a sitting duck for Ajeeb’s turn of foot.

SATURDAY JANUARY 31st:

Sandown: 12.40: Old Guard can be forgiven for a poor run last time at Chepstow when bogged down in Chepstow’s glue. Previously he had looked a smart recruit when beating Karezak at Newbury and that is unquestionably the best form on offer. This small field may suit and he is preferred to French import The Saint James and recent Plumpton winner Pain Au Chocolat.

1.15: Only four turn out for the Listed hurdle but it should prove informative. Garde La Victoire and Jollyallan set a decent standard, whilst leading Triumph Hurdle candidate Bristol De Mai (who will do well to beat his older rivals) cannot be dismissed.

2.25: In what is likely to be a tight Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase, Irish Saint is the one likely to operate best under these conditions. He jumped Ascot without a semblance of a mistake last time and is clearly heading in an upward direction. This trip may be on the sharp side for Champagne West – who looks more of an RSA candidate – whilst although clearly getting to grips with fences, Sandown threatens to expose any weakness in Splash Of Ginge’s as yet far from bombproof jumping. Gitane Du Berlais stuttered round when winning over fences at Limerick and will need to have learnt plenty if she is to beat these rivals. Grumeti is also asked to leap up in class.

3.00: Polamco has the look of a horse saved for this after what may have been a fortunate win last time at Newbury. He will need to improve again to confirm placings with Saffron Wells on revised terms as the handicapper has ensured they are again closely matched. Saffron Wells did travel last time at Kempton but was eventually dismissed by handicap blot Tea For Two. This stiffer track may be in his favour. Junction Fourteen lost no caste in defeat when unable to concede 12lbs to well-handicapped Batavir last time from this mark and looks poised to enter the argument.

MEYDAN THURSDAY JANUARY 29th:

2.45: Not A Given could be well enough in to double up on a recent win over this course, particularly as he returns to a trip at which he excelled in the US.

3.20: With useful form to his credit at Grade 1 level in South Africa, Banaadeer is the potential fly-in-the-ointment here. He could easily outclass these, but on what is his first venture on dirt and with fitness having to be taken on trust, unless the market speaks volumes, he may be best watched for now. A fast-finishing second to Hototo three weeks ago, Fityann should be thereabouts again, but the suspicion is an extra furlong may aid his cause. Speed Hawk and Ahtoug are others to consider.

3.55: Alreef comes out best here, although if prepared to forgive a below-par sixth last time (when Alareef was fourth), Muhtaram would enter the reckoning. However, from a yard whose horses have been slow to swing into action, Alareef may be the better option.

4.30: A close fifth to Belgian Bill in a scrum finish a fortnight ago, Slipper Orchid should be much sharper now. With the re-application of cheekpieces she looks primed to peak, chiefly at the expense of Zurigha.

5.05: Another Party may have been flattered by his recent proximity to Safety Check and in any event faces dirt for the first time – always a concern. A recent fourth to Reynoldthewizard, Muaanid has the best of the weights against several of these (United Color and Russian Soul) and already a winner on this surface in December, this represents an opportunity for him.

5.40: This is crunch time for True Story who returns to the major league after his listed win three weeks ago. A winner first time out here last year, Vercingetorix only lost an unbeaten record in the Dubai Duty Free on World Cup night and proved he could translate Dubai form when a gallant third in the QE II at Sha Tin. A dual Group 1 winner, Vercingetorix is taken to expose any weakness in True Story, who for all his ability and the hint a gelding operation may help him unleash it, was not entirely convincing with his attitude when winning the Singspiel three weeks ago.

6.15: Never in the hunt last week when fifth to Umgiyo, Pilote had earlier run with promise against True Story in the Singspiel and it could be premature to overlook him in this handicap. Any market interest in Italian Oaks runner-up Scighera (last seen nine months ago) should be noted as she enters this handicap from a temptingly attractive mark.

SATURDAY JANUARY 24th:

With the builders taking a day off, amid the iron carcasses comprising the skeleton that will become the new Cheltenham, it is Festival Trials Day. Hopefully the card will provide a ray of light on events scheduled for March on this penultimate Saturday in January…

Events start at 12.40 with the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, for which Peace And Co is presented with the chance to vindicate his market position in the big race itself. It is a chance he should be capable of taking. His solitary outing in this country resulted in a facile success at Doncaster – a race that is sending out mixed messages. However, what is not in doubt is the authority with which he won. Of course we all know soft ground can produce misleading results but Peace And Co could not have been more impressive, recording a fast time in the process. At present only the brave will oppose him. Bivouac is extremely likeable and is improving fast but his unbeaten record is seriously under threat here. Zarib made a pleasing start to his new career at Newbury but faces much sterner opposition now and Ibis Du Rheu is an interesting recruit from France that will almost certainly benefit from the outing after a nine month absence.

1.15: Ned Stark should appreciate this return to handicap company after failing to cope with Ptit Zig and Champagne West here at the turn of the year. That said he appeals as more of a stayer (he was always a stride behind the game last time), meaning three miles may suit better. Stellar Notion may struggle to confirm Kempton running with Generous Ransom over this extended trip. Equipped with cheekpieces and from a stable in form, Generous Ransom represents value in a tricky but not impossible handicap.

1.50: Receiving weight from his rivals, last year’s RSA runner-up Smad Place is greatly favoured by conditions in this. He is now 12lbs better in with Hennessy winner Many Clouds on Newbury running and having travelled strongly for a long way must have a major chance of gaining revenge. We know he stays and that crucially he can handle this undulating track. Many Clouds was brought-down in the RSA but it is fair to say he was struggling at the time and would not have troubled Smad Place at levels. Of course a lot may have tilted in his favour since, but his workmanlike Hennessy win still suggests he is some way off Gold Cup standard. It is hard to foresee last year’s winner The Giant Bolster repeating the dose against this sort of opposition; whilst, although a winner over this trip, the suspicion is that testing ground and a truly run race will test Dynaste to the full. His best form is undoubtedly at shorter. To justify inclusion at this sort of level in the future, Smad Place has to win now and is the logical call.

2.25: The magnet is attracted to Easter Day here, who, if lining up, faces an easier task than that earmarked as his first preference at Doncaster. He jumped well in his comeback effort at Newbury, looking as if he would be sharper for the experience.

3.00: Value At Risk could hardly have made a better start to his hurdling career when skating away with a novice at Newbury. Having already posted definite promise in bumpers, his emphatic success (from moderate opposition it has to be said) only emphasised his potential. A win here will catapult him into the big time but his price already reflects his supposed ability. A return to timber for Present View is not altogether surprising as his jumping over fences is unconvincing, whilst Stiletto, Vago Collonges and Ordo Ab Chao represent untapped talent. Taken at face value Robinsfirth (a good second here last time) would appeal as the each-way alternative in a race likely to be won by Value At Risk but best watched.

3.35: A return to hurdles is likely to suit Saphir Du Rheu who was scaling the heights over timber at a rate of knots this time last year. There will be other days over fences when he is older and wiser; during the interim he can pick up further prize-money over the smaller obstacles. Conditions suit, as do they for Un Temps Pour Tout who is respected and whose presence (despite an absence since last May) is enough to prevent Saphir Du Rheu being nominated as a bet. The penalty threatens to thwart Cole Harden but even so he cannot be discounted.

4.10: Lightentertainment has an attractive profile and runs from a reasonable mark in a tough concluding handicap to the card. The question is whether this return to an extended two miles is ideal for a horse whose best form is over further. This is a race full of unknown quantities and for that reason an early exit from the ring is advised.

MEYDAN JANUARY 22nd

3.20: After the win of Le Bernardin last week, Henry Clay, who was in front of him when they finished second and third to I’m Back here two weeks ago, will be a popular selection now. He may win but Busker, who was fourth is marginally better off at the weights and could prove a serious threat this time. Dragon Falls also showed promise that day so separating the three today is no straightforward matter.

3.55: Assured on the surface and both by dirt stallion Street Cry, Cry Joy and Street Act head the market. The latter was comprehensively beaten by impressive Layl a week ago, whilst Cry Joy is fit from a spin round here three weeks ago. Malekov could be dangerous but his ability to handle this surface is an unknown.

4.30: After finishing third to True Story two weeks ago, attention is focused on Pilote now he is in handicap company. However this is a quality event with several participants on the verge of listed class at least. Umgiyo has acquitted himself in top company in South Africa but for all that, having only ever won a maiden, his claims are somewhat dubious. He could be a horse that runs well in defeat. A winner first time last year (won the Epsom Derby Trial) Our Channel is not very big and does not take much getting fit. Closely matched with Steeler on Betfred running at Goodwood (when too much use was made of him) this trip should be ideal and he is the selection.

5.05: Something of a leap of faith is required to side with Tamarkuz here as he is his own worst enemy at the stalls. He made life next to impossible last time when a fast closing runner-up to hat-trick seeking Faulkener and if he breaks on terms today he should account for these rivals. Chief danger is infrequent winner Haatheq (carries the first colours) but this is Tamarkuz’s race to lose.

5.40: Although upped in grade, Safety Check won with plenty to spare last time (hardly blowing a candle out in the unsaddling enclosure) and looking as if had plenty more to offer. He looks ready for this step up in grade. The Mike De Kock pair, Red Ray and Anaerobio have obvious claims at this level but their fitness has to be of concern.

SATURDAY JANUARY 16th:

One way or another racing looks assured to make the headlines after Saturday. Direct from intensive care, the participation of Sprinter Sacre in the Sodexo Clarence House Chase at Ascot means he will become Lazarus if he succeeds; a bloodied Lord Raglan from the Charge of the Light Brigade who was sent over the top once too often if not.

It’s not the task presented by the race itself that is forbidding (this would have been well within Sprinter Sacre’s remit some fifteen months ago and seen as a stepping stone to further glory), more that as a general rule, rather like humans, racehorses have a limited shelf life at the highest level. Therefore there is a train of thought that assumes after a heart murmur and a spell in the cardiac arrest unit, Sprinter Sacre is unlikely to leap directly from an ambulance and return with victory in a Grade 1.

His participation means racing will hold its breath for the four minutes or so it will take to run the event at 3.00. One of the best trainers of jumpers ever seen, Nicky Henderson has deliberated hard and long and now seems committed to run. Feeling his charge is back to his brilliant best he really has no alternative. And before any post mortem demands the trainer’s incarceration in a Turkish jail if it goes wrong, let’s be clear. The alternative to running Sprinter Sacre would be to retire him to a pasture without ever knowing if his departure from the routine he is used to and thrives upon was premature. Unfortunately we cannot list the power of speech amongst Sprinter Sacre’s many attributes; therefore the decision to race has been made on his behalf. Such a decision is fraught with danger but, partnered by one of the most sensitive jockeys currently riding and owned by people that know a thing or two about horses, he is in good hands. We wish him well…
Grey Gold and Somersby are unlikely to cash in on any possible misfire suffered by Sprinter Sacre. Dodging Bullets and Twinlight look the serious alternatives, but neither would be capable of toppling a Sprinter Sacre that was back on song.

With two highly promising novices waiting in the wings in the shape of Top Notch in the 12.40 and Out Sam in the 4.05 on the same Ascot card, not to mention Lyvius – who is not without a chance in the Grade 2 handicap hurdle at 2.25 – it is a big day for team Henderson. The first two mentioned ought to win without too much bother, although they are priced accordingly.

On the face of it with only four in the handicap proper, the 2.25 looks like a punter-friendly event. Garde La Victoire has already astounded this season when winning the Greatwood on this sort of ground from a stiff weight. A close fifth in the Ladbroke from top weight reinforced the notion he could not easily be dismissed in this sort of company. However, again he has to concede lumps to Lyvius, French import Willem and recent Sandown winner Rayvin Black, to whom, allowing for his rider’s claim, Garde Le Victoire has to give the thick end of two stone. Should he succeed it will be a performance out of the top drawer.

Haydock is hanging on to a decent fixture by its fingertips. An unfavourable weather forecast means even if racing takes place events may be unpredictable. Obviously The New One ought to oblige, but investment in the American dollar against the euro seems a safer alternative. Assuming he can put an unfortunate unseat behind him, Carraig Mor threatens to be too good for his opponents in the 2.40, but again makes limited betting appeal.

So, from this prospective it looks like a mid-season Saturday to observe through the shutters of winter. Barring actually paying the entrance fee at Ascot’s turnstiles, this way, as they haven’t yet figured out a way to charge us to watch, it should at least cost nothing.

THURSDAY JANUARY 15th:

Meydan: With a largely untried cast, it’s a day of conjecture in the desert…
2.45: Run on dirt and featuring contenders from three different countries, the UAE 1000 Guineas Trial plunges us into the dark. Ad Idem is obviously a leading contender for Mike De Kock, whilst Local Time looks the Godolphin pick on jockey bookings but has yet to race on this surface. Good Place ran to a similar level to her stable mate last season and being by Street Cry should not be inconvenienced by a surface both fillies are sure to have experienced in workouts. Kempton winner Comedy Queen (by dirt stallion Distorted Humour) completes a powerful hand for Godolphin in a race where clues seem essential.

3.20: Fit from a recent run at Lingfield and with form here and on dirt, there is every reason to expect a bold run from Energia Davos in this tight handicap. Le Bernardin will find this a tougher assignment than last week’s when he was third to I’m Back. With the right pedigree for dirt Famous Kid could be dangerous, as could be Pinzolo if handling dirt. Representing strong local form Storm Belt is another worthy of consideration.

3.55: Knavery, Simon Chrisford’s first runner as a trainer, looks the part here but has yet to race on dirt.

4.30: The UAE 2000 Guineas Trial is another event that poses more questions than it answers. Fifth in the Dewhurst and by Hard Spun, the jury is out on Maftool on this surface. A close up third in the Cornwallis, Volatile should be suited by this step up in trip but again has to prove he can cope with dirt, as does the Dundalk winner Unorthodox. Zephuros is another interesting contender on his first attempt on this surface, whilst the ex-Argentinian Ajwad – now with Mike De Kock – is another wild card that handles the surface but has to prove he is up to this class.

5.05: With favourable draws to assist, this could rest between Haafaguinea (good form here) and Mr Pommeroy (sold from France for a quarter of a million euros to a stable with an expanding record in the UAE).

5.40: Ticking the majority of boxes, Muarrab will be hard to beat here. A recent win at Jebel Ali was boosted by the recent run of Fityaan – who finished third that day. An improving Muarrab is closely matched with what is perceived as the main danger, United Color, and both line up fit after recent runs. They threaten to dominate this event with preference accorded to Muarrab.

6.15: Whatever his fate in this competitive handicap, as he is likely to need this his first run for almost a year, and representing a yard that is yet to crank up its strike rate, Captain Lars (not favourably drawn) looks a sure-fire future contender at this level before long. Progressive in South Africa last year, despite the negatives he could still prove too good.

SATURDAY JANUARY 10th:

A hostile weather forecast means it is a case of fingers crossed for Saturday’s programmes. With the threat of gale force winds – even snow in places – whatever transpires, an ability to cope with soft bordering on heavy ground would seem essential for those in search of prize-money at the two big venues.
Kempton: 1.00: In the belief that Cold March will have no problems with his obstacles (has fallen twice in the last six outings), he is nominated as the likely winner here. Following a silly error at the first on his British debut, he jumped soundly last time at Ascot when third to Dance Floor King. In the light of the winner’s close third last weekend at Sandown that form looks sufficiently solid to carry him close now, and this step up in trip should be in his favour.

2.40: The Lanzarote Hurdle over 2m 5f will provide a stiff test, one that may prove the undoing of several. A winner over this trip, Saffron Wells makes plenty of appeal in a handicap that may not be as desperately difficult to win as the numbers suggest. He was a good third to Polamco and Morito Du Berlais over this distance at Newbury in December after a two month spell on the sidelines – a run that needs little improving upon in this company from only a 1lb higher mark. His last three well-spaced out efforts all hint at a progressive profile and he is nominated as the value bet now.

Warwick: 1.55: Now stepped up to three miles over fences for the first time and receiving weight all round, former long distance hurdler Mickie is the suggestion here. If she is to reach a similar level over fences to that shown over timber, this could be her day to do so.

3.00: Shantou Bob is hard to get away from in this Grade 2; all things being equal he should get back on the winning trail. However, he faces several likely opponents that may have plenty more to offer; chief amongst these could be Ballagh who shaped well on his hurdling debut at Newbury when second to Different Gravey. It could be argued it is plenty soon enough to hurl him into this sort of company – one can only hope his stable has not jumped the proverbial gun. If not he can follow the market-leader home and may prove to be the value alternative at his likely odds.

SATURDAY JANUARY 3rd:

Sandown: 12.40: With an 8lbs differential it is not easy to separate Fighting Fifth runner-up Aurore D’Estruval and the useful Mischievous Milly. Both seem to have run to a similar level of form; and whilst we know Mischievous Milly stays, the drawback is she has not run this season. It seems reasonable to assume Aurore D’Estruval will get this trip, but you never fully know until they have done it. Therefore, although she appears to have the edge, which is albeit a narrow one, considering her price she looks a resistible betting proposition.

1.50: Mr Mole is only a begrudging tip here. Whilst entitled to confirm Exeter form with Brick Red, given he has an issue or two that is not certain. The inclusion of William’s Wishes – who may have been flattered last time in the Tingle Creek but who is still a decent performer at this level – means the percentage is to leave the race alone.

2.25: Once again we are faced with a disappointing turnout for a Grade 1. Regrettably it is only a matter of time before the authorities (whoever they might be these days!) take action to divert valuable prize-money away from conditions events that are under-subscribed at this time of year. Having looked smart in his two starts for Nicky Henderson, it looks likely that L’Ami Serge will successfully take this step to the top level at short odds.

3.00: Even with the assistance of his rider’s claim and the 12lbs WFA allowance, Bouvreuil faces a stiff task here for a four-year-old that will still be biologically three. We are largely guessing but unless the bush telegraph is beating his name throughout the village in a major way come race time, the inclination is to oppose him. After two excellent recent runs (a close third to Chesterfield reads well) Song Light has the look of a horse heading in the right direction. His rider’s claim (won on him last time) puts him at the right end of the handicap and means he receives in excess of a stone from Amore Alato, who looks something of a sitting duck from his current mark.

THURSDAY JANUARY 1ST:

Cheltenham: A new year kicks off with a very competitive novice hurdle at 12.10. It is entirely possible that at least one of these participants will be back here in ten weeks (yes, that’s all it is!) for the Festival. Brother Tedd and Zeroshadesofgrey face much more serious opposition than they have met so far on their way to chalking up impressive victories. As a result it is largely guesswork how they will fare now. At least the Newbury win of Different Gravey has a solid look to it, meaning he could be the sort to live up to an ambitious name. Days Of Heaven went on to win next time from that event and Seven Nation Army, who was fourth, went on to run Clean Sheet close on Monday. Thomas Brown heads the second wave but they have plenty to find. Although there will be other days, there was a lot to like about Different Gravey last time.

12.45: This looks like an event to file in the “too difficult” category. Cases can be made for several but they hardly look watertight. There should be little between Saint Are and Alfie Spinner on Becher Chase form when they finished third and fourth. Not for the first time Our Father ran like a non-stayer at Aintree and it is surprising that connections are persevering with him in an event that places such an emphasis on stamina. Of those to re-emerge from Liverpool, marginal preference is for last year’s runner-up in this Alfie Spinner, but he is vulnerable. Despite advancing years, Charingworth, who runs this track well, cannot be confidently ruled out. It is possible this marathon trip and the 5lbs claimed by the excellent Ryan Hatch will be responsible for Hollow Blue Sky figuring, whilst if in the same form that saw him skate away with a Ffos Las chase last time on only his second appearance over fences, despite a hefty weight rise, Cadeau George could be too good for some dyed-in-the-wool chasers who regularly play last-man-standing in this sort of event.

1.20: With the highly promising Ned Stark in this line-up, it could be a mistake to assume this Grade 2 chase rests between Ptit Zig and Champagne West. Ptit Zig certainly looks a worthy favourite judged on a proficient round of jumping at Ascot last time and he does possess a turn of foot that could settle the issue in the closing stages. A high class hurdler and the youngest in the field, he looks a top prospect that should take this stepping stone to the Festival in his stride. Champagne West was never in a satisfactory rhythm last time (connections blamed holding ground) but cannot afford to be out of kilter against rivals of this calibre. Ned Stark will probably need to get lucky to win here as his future looks to lie over further. Even so he has created a positive impression on his two runs over fences to date and, a safe jumper, will pick up any scraps left in his path.

1.55: Having won the Paddy Power here in November, Caid Du Berlais jumped sketchily from his revised mark next time before slithering to a full stop at the tenth. It is hard to be positive now. It is possible Splash Of Ginge may at last realise his potential over this sphere, whilst Dineur and Baileys Concerto (same horse on recent Aintree running) also have chances. Hunt Ball would not entirely surprise at a big price although the handicapper probably needs to relent a little these days. Even so he was not disgraced last time when faced with a very stiff task at Aintree.

2.30: Ulzana’s Raid and Sybarite are difficult to split after their running here last time, although Ryan Hatch’s 5lb claim could be the clincher in favour of Sybarite. However, they appear to have been patient with Knight Of Noir who ran to a similar level here last time when only just beaten by the useful Morito Du Berlais – to whom he was attempting to concede 15lbs. Such patience could pay dividends now. This step up in trip should not inconvenience Knight Of Noir who is taken to come out on top here and seen as the best betting opportunity on a tough betting card. Southfield Vic – who is stepping out of novice company big time here – will need to be pretty smart to foil this opposition.

3.05: The penalty combined with a nine month absence threatens to thwart Beat That who will nevertheless be the focus of interest here. Ready Relkeel winner Rock On Ruby will need to be at the top of his game to successfully concede 8lbs to Vaniteux, for whom a return to this extended trip promises to be in his favour.

Based on races viewed, Spy’s analysis and list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

SATURDAY DECEMBER 27TH:

Kempton: 12.40: With a 10lbs weight turnaround in his favour for three-quarters of a length, it seems reasonable to expect Storm Force Ten to reverse Sandown form with Bivouac here. Apparently he has flourished since his debut over timber and, a decent performer on the Flat, is expected to open his account now. Bivouac cannot be dismissed out of hand, neither can French import San Benedeto, but after what was an encouraging start, Storm Force Ten gets his chance to leapfrog a few places in Triumph Hurdle market.

Chepstow: 1.55: As a Grade 1 trial, this promises to provide plenty of Cheltenham clues. Golden Doyen will find this a tougher assignment than his Cheltenham victory last time when inching out Hargam. Old Guard beat two highly fancied rivals on debut and improvement will make him a serious candidate. Assuming the Sandown form is not let down in the opener at Kempton, Baron Alco was probably attempting a mammoth task when trying to conceded 10lbs to Bivouac and Storm Force Ten last time. Not disgraced in defeat and a winner on this type of ground, he is nominated as a value alternative to some more obvious contenders.

SATURDAY DECEMBER 27TH
BOXING DAY FRIDAY DECEMBER 26TH:

Kempton: 12.50: Although not foot perfect at Cork when comfortably accounting for his rivals on debut, with decent form on the Flat in France (including when third in listed company) Sempre Medici appeals as having greater scope than recent Newbury winner Jollyallan. With a clear round the Irish representative can strike an early blow for the Walsh/Mullins combination, although the booking of Barry Geraghty for newcomer and ex-Godolphin Zip Top (presumably in preference to the Henderson-trained Bringithomeminty) sounds a note of caution.

1.25: In what looks like a tricky handicap, Quite By Chance might be worth chancing. His three runs this season all hint at progression. A second to subsequent Ascot winner Dance Floor King at Wincanton over two miles before shrugging off a 2lbs higher mark over today’s trip suggests connections may have something up their sleeves from today’s revised rating.

2.00: Style threatens to give way to substance here. In the face of a strong challenge from several with a similar if not a better profile, short-price favourite Saphir Du Rheu (who surely has a future over fences whatever transpires in this) will not have everything his own way in this Grade 1. His stable-mate, the hat-trick-seeking Virak, along with Carriag Mor – who looked a natural over fences at Newbury last time – appeal as the two most likely to test him to the limit, but the inclusion of back-from-the-dead Coneygree and to a lesser extent Sausolito Sunrise mean this is a race that will take plenty of winning.

2.35: All eyes will focus on Faugheen here. Odds-on, he should maintain an unbeaten record. Even so those looking for an alibi to get him beaten might point to his record, which leans towards him being more effective over two miles plus than two miles dead – particularly over a sharp track like Kempton. Only Irving and Sign Of A Victory can be nominated as potential dangers, and on all known form they do have something to find. Impressive as Sign Of A Victory was at Ascot last time when beating Dawalan, the runner-up is better over further. However, Sign Of A Victory missed the Ladbroke last week for this and should not be underestimated.

3.10: This showcase event would be greatly simplified if we could label Champagne Fever as a true contender that is worthy of his current place in the betting at this level. The trouble is, in all honesty we can’t: he still has to prove he is good enough to mix it with the quality of opponent he faces here. Five starts over fences down the line, smart and up-and-coming chaser that he is, this will be his first attempt at a Grade 1 outside novice company. He is also unproven over this trip. As he holds the rest of the field on various previous runs, Silviniaco Conti looks solid. As doubts (however minor) exist over the second-favourite, some might say last year’s winner is bombproof. This reasoning is largely sound. As Champagne Fever is the only wild card in the line-up, Silviniaco Conti really ought to win. With stamina doubts persisting over Al Ferof, an in-form Menorah and Dynaste look most likely to pick up any pieces but there is no logical reason why either should beat an on-song Silviniaco Conti. Even so I am reluctant to commit to a horse that has flopped before. Whilst fully appreciating many will disagree, sometimes you have to accept certain horses will always outfox you. Such is Silviniaco Conti as far as I am concerned. Never having backed him when he has won, but the recipient of his bad days, I feel inclined to look away from the mouth of what many will probably rightfully describe as a gift horse.

3.45: The Pipe yard could easily do a Batavir (runs from a penalty at Wincanton but faces much stiffer opposition this time than when winning at Ascot last week) with Alternatif, who should be effective at this trip. Hawaii Five Nil is another likely to improve for this extra yardage and should not be readily discarded despite the apparent lack-lustre form currently shown by his stable.

ASCOT SATURDAY DECEMBER 20TH:

1.15: Receiving 3lbs from Irish Saint it is entirely possible that Puffin Billy, who reserves his best for this track, may be good enough to thwart those looking to take cramped odds about the likely favourite.

2.25: Described as being in great heart since winning a Grade 1 at Auteuil in November, Zarkandar, who cannot always be relied upon when the cash is down, is a warm favourite for the Long Walk. It is a race within his grasp but there are better 5/4 chances to be found. Medinas looked to have won a tactical contest last time, Reve De Sivola will need to wind the clock back to score but Aubusson is not far off the required standard and this improving five-year-old could be the one connections of Zarkandar should fear most.

3.00: On a day lacking any definitive bets, The Young Master is only a tentative selection in this listed handicap. Raised 14lbs for a race that was taken from him due to his trainer’s carelessness, he lines up under inauspicious circumstances but does appear to jump proficiently and still receives lumps of weight from the three above him in the handicap, all of whom will need to raise their game in a similar manner.

3.30: He may be at the wrong end of the handicap to be a blot, but the classy Bayan is certainly one of the more interesting contenders in The Ladbroke. With the speed to win over two miles but a close third in the Coral Cup over three to Whisper at Cheltenham in March, the versatile five-year-old seems impervious to ground and should be in the mix. Shelford looks well-treated but his two hurdle wins have come at further and this trip combined with inexperience may find him out. Actival reappears after flirting with Triumph Hurdle candidates last season but again, as only a four-year-old with limited experience, he has a bit to prove at this level. At the foot of the weights Clondaw Warrior’s third in the Greatwood may stand him in good stead now and he is feared most in a race that may be dominated by the Irish.

FRIDAY DECEMBER 19TH:

Small but select fields line up at Ascot with the possibility of one betting opportunity.
After a satisfactory debut over hurdles at Cheltenham, a drop in grade ought to allow Champagne Present to get off the mark in the 12.50, although at likely odds he fails to appeal as a betting proposition.
Although only four turn out for the Grade 2 hurdle at 1.55 it looks like a case of perming any one from three. L’Ami Serge, Emerging Talent and Killultagh Vic (the pick of nine five-day entries for the Mullins stable) represent classy recruits and more should be heard of them in the coming months.
In the Grade 2 novice chase Dunraven Storm has the established form over fences but faces a stiff task in conceding weight to last year’s Ladbroke runner-up Ptit Zig, who has won twice over the bigger obstacles but faces a stiffer test now – and more especially Josses Hill, who did nothing but improve over hurdles last season. If capable of transferring his form over timber to this sphere, Josses Hill, already considered a possible candidate for the Arkle, has the class to stamp his authority on this field. Considering the stable he represents, he is sure to have been well schooled.
A winner over 2m 4f over hurdles in France, Batavir should not be judged too harshly after failing to cope with Rock On Rocky over two miles on his British debut at Leicester last month. Likely to be sharper for the experience, this step up in trip looks guaranteed to suit and he is taken to open his account from what could be a lenient mark of 119 in the Class 3 handicap hurdle.

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 17TH:

Newbury stage their pre-Christmas meeting tomorrow, which makes something of welcome change from the usual offerings we are subjected to mid-week; the problem from a betting point of view though is that in order to solve any of the races a great deal of guesswork is required.
Hard on the heels of the bacon and eggs at 12.10 the juvenile hurdle is a case in point. Trendsetter and Blue Atlantic set a modest standard. Blue Atlantic’s failure to defy a penalty at Market Rasen suggests he may be equally pressed here. On balance Trendsetter’s third at Wetherby looks to represent better form but is only ordinary. Zarib and Jalingo look likely recruits from the Flat whilst ex-French import Winner Massagot looks to have an ideal hurdling profile.

12.40: On these terms Astigos (a long-standing maiden that is hanging on to that status for grim death) has a length in hand of Minella On Line after their close third and fourth to Big Hands Harry in a messy Ascot event last month. It is early days to pronounce judgement on the Ascot race (either the winner – who all but threw the race away but still prevailed – is destined for much better, or it was a case of him emerging best of a modest bunch). On hurdling evidence Minella On Line has a touch of the slows and makes as much appeal as Astigos. Chase The Spud is the one in this field that could have something to offer. A six length winner of his only chase at Exeter, a rise of eight pounds gives him every chance if he can reproduce that promise.

1.10: This looks a weak affair. Communicator may get away with it but he is hardly convincing. Ffos Las bumper winner Beast Of Burden, who landed a gamble in the process, could be a cut above these.

2.45: After two knotty chases, the wild card is back in action in the novice hurdle. Winner of two bumpers and a Ludlow hurdle, Jack Frost has the benefit of his regular rider’s 3lbs claim to help but still has to concede weight all round, which for a four-year-old looks taxing. Winner of an Irish point Monbeg Gold could be interesting. Having finished third in a Grade 1 N/H Flat race at Punchestown in April when last seen, Value At Risk lines up with a more conventional profile and clearly has ability. If he takes to hurdles he could be too classy.
Right now we are throwing the cards up in the air and seeing which way they land. Currently weighed down by imponderables, it seems they are landing in a haphazard fashion after each throw. But it is not all doom and gloom. A few clues here and there could totally transform the rise and fall by tomorrow and possibly pave the way for a small wager…

SATURDAY DECEMBER 13TH:

Cheltenham: 12.15: Having created a favourable impression on his debut over hurdles in a similar JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, French import and smart ex-French Flat performer Hargam gets his chance to stamp his claim at top juvenile hurdle level here. A strict line through Golden Doyen does give him a few pounds to find with Karezak, but the signs are this sounder surface will play to Hargam’s strengths and that normal improvement from his debut should be enough. Previous winners Stars Over The Sea and Mr Gallivanter have impressed in lesser company but face stiffer tasks with penalties. This appears to present Hargam with the ideal opportunity. Karezak looks his biggest danger.

12.50: Faced with likelihood that his main threat Virak will be diverted to Doncaster (weather permitting), the way to victory has been smoothed for Champagne West who impressed here last month on his chasing debut and who should follow up now.

1.25: For a four-year-old having only his third outing over fences but his second in a handicap, Solar Impulse jumped like a seasoned veteran at Newbury when narrowly beaten by Monetaire on Hennessy day. Despite a 5lbs rise, he is improving quickly and looks capable of beating opponents that by and large have no secrets.

2.00: Although only raised 5lb for his Paddy Power success, a lofty weight perch threatens to make this a much harder task for Caid Du Berlais. Nominating dangers should be easy but in fact from a weight perspective only Barrakilla (who is entitled to improve for his latest run at Sandown – his first for ten months), Attaglance and Workbench appeal as alternatives.

2.35: This promises to be a closely fought contest between Blaklion, Binge Drinker and Parish Business with preference accorded to the first two mentioned in that order. However, with Port Melon a contender after finishing only just behind Blaklion last time, without the benefit of an edge this is a race to watch.

3.10: It is impossible to look beyond The New One and Vaniteux in the Grade 2 hurdle designed to provide a clue to the Champion in March. A smart novice last year and narrowly beaten under top weight in the Greatwood, in receipt of 8lbs Vaniteux represents a serious threat to The New One. Described by Nicky Henderson as his only possible contender for Cheltenham’s hurdling crown, Vaniteux will not have many better opportunities to stake his claim. Although impressive at Haydock last month, The New One will need to produce more against a stiffer opponent this time.

3.45: Back to hurdles we have to assume Rock On Ruby will win this … but, is he a horse one should risk cash on? The oldest in the field, he faces rivals that may not be as good as he is, or that will ever aspire to his record, but younger legs often work harder and longer.

FRIDAY DECEMBER 12TH:

As Christmas speeds ever closer, and to an extent with every penny accounted for, there is no room for sentimentality or sloppiness when it comes to risking capital on gambling right now. Of course such an ethos should be advocated all year round, but when all betting guns are ablaze, there are occasions when cases can be made for throw-away bets. Right now, with the staging of some dire mid-week cards that offer little opportunity of restoring any mistakes or setbacks, this is not one of them. The margin for error is set at a low level and only serious betting propositions should be considered during this period.

Tipping winners is not enough right now: the question is – are the tips bets? On the approach to Kempton on Boxing Day, we have two days this week to sort something out and put ammunition in the betting armoury…

CHELTENHAM: 12.30: Kings Palace ought to confirm placings with Sausalito Sunrise on 8lbs worse terms but a better round of jumping from his rival could press the issue. In this four-horse contest Return Spring enters the equation, whilst chasing newcomer Vivaldi Collonges cannot be ruled out. So class act or not, on only his second attempt over fences, at shades of odds-on Kings Palace looks like one to cheer politely from the stands.

1.05: This handicap for conditional riders makes no betting appeal. With the aid of a capable claimer, Hollow Blue Sky should improve on his last run here for this step back up in trip but needs to in order to justify support.

1.40: Representing powerful yards it is always possible Lough Kent and Street Entertainer may be about to strike at this sort of level, but Vintage Vinnie and Gohar line up as possible contenders that could just be underestimated. Guessing the outcome between these four could be a thankless task.

2.10: Having defied the handicapper twice this season after comfortable wins at Warwick at Leicester, running on a penalty means that despite being 4lbs out of the weights, The Ould Lad could easily rack up the hat-trick in this slog over an extended three miles. He looks the logical selection in what is not a particularly strong event; however, his chance would be compromised if the ground eased dramatically. This is a race chock-full of imponderables. Hadrians Approach and Lamb Or Cod make limited appeal, although victory from either would not exactly shock. As it stands, Samstown, Charingworth or Cowards Close look more likely winners.

3.15: Even on revised terms with Invicta Lake, Big Easy will be popular to confirm their running over this course in November, particularly over this slightly shorter trip. That said, this will be Big Easy’s fourth run in what has to be considered quick succession by his standards, which should be a worry to his supporters. A sharper round of hurdling would present Invicta Lake with a clear chance now, whilst Guiding George and Ulzana’s Raid have to be included in calculations.

3.45: Perhaps the best opportunity on the day lurks in the concluding novice hurdle. Lightly-raced but looking likely to repay at least part of an expensive price tag on debut when second to the more than useful Shantou Bob with subsequent Ascot winner Fletchers Flyer a close third, Padge looks primed to open his account now. By Cheltenham standards this is not a strong novice and it will be a disappointment to all concerned should Padge not win or go close. By and large his opponents appear beatable and the selection and suggested sole bet on the card has the look of a price-mover come tomorrow.

SATURDAY DECEMBER 6TH:

Aintree: 2.05: Having given the impression he was struggling, Dawalan stayed on strongly last time to finish a close fourth at Haydock to the progressive On Tour in similar conditions to today. Sneaked up a further pound by the handicapper, this extended trip looks to be his forte and he is taken to strike after three runs this season – every one of which reads well and suggests he is a winner waiting to happen.

3.15: Although no easy race, everything is right for Hunt Ball who ran better than indicated by his placing at Ascot over hurdles last time. This is a realistic target and he should at least acquit himself well despite a steadying weight.

Sandown: 1.20: Cup Final has the look of a well handicapped hurdler and the rise of a 1lb after what was an encouraging handicap debut at Cheltenham last month means he races from a reasonable mark of 127 now. This trip should suit him well.

Nicky Henderson has his team in excellent shape and it is entirely possible he will walk away with major prize-money today. With two big chances at Aintree and further opportunities on this card, Sweet Deal in the 2.25 and Oscar Whisky in the featured Tingle Creek cannot be ignored. Reported to be in terrific shape after what was almost a weight-busting attempt in the Paddy Power, Oscar Whisky faces slightly sub-standard opponents for a race of this stature and looks sure to make his presence felt. The only worry is this trip of two miles, which might be on the sharp side and find him out. There is little between the younger duo that is God’s Own and Balder Succes based on their two recent meetings. They could have the edge but Oscar Whisky cannot be safely ruled out. Dodging Bullets looks too soft to be a confident call at this level and surely Somersby’s days in Grade 1s are over.

Based on races viewed, Spy’s analysis and list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 29TH:

NEWBURY: 3.00: The Hennessy Gold Cup poses several of the usual questions. After a promising start to his chasing career last season, Djakadam looks a class act here. His present mark along with his place in the handicap makes him an appealing prospect in a race where nothing stands out from a handicapping prospective. However, he faces his stiffest test and recent market support means any value has been hoovered up. Second in this last year and now 5lbs higher, with a tongue tie applied for the first time, we should expect a bold show from Rocky Creek who it can be argued returns to action as a better horse now than he was this time last year. Ballynagour would have a serious chance if he stays the trip, which, on ground such as this has to be open to question. Many Clouds is another to enter the reckoning. However, the message for Smad Place is encouraging and a big run seems to be expected. In a race that is hard to call the RSA runner-up has to be the selection.

NEWBURY WINTER FESTIVAL Day-One

Persistent rain has changed the ground at Newbury to a mixture of soft and heavy. Whatever the official description, it will be extremely testing. As a result the fields for Thursday are small and they feature several odds-on chances. The weather is dank and dreary; it is cold and rheumatic; the opening day is for enthusiasts only.

The feature event is the bet365 Intermediate Hurdle – registered and known to aficionados as The Gerry Feilden Hurdle – run at 3.15. Willie Mullins is down to fielding two from an original entry of three. Progressive at the end of last season when winning his last two hurdles in Ireland, Daneking looks a better prospect at present than stable mate Wicklow Brave. Despite a serious hike in the ratings (up 13lbs) after his win at Fairyhouse in April that win nevertheless cemented his profile as a hurdler soaring through the ranks. A winner on heavy he looks a serious contender here, although the weight concession to the French import L’ami Serge (another with solid form on the heavy) could be cause for concern. Nicky Henderson has taken his runners out en masse on this opening day so it looks significant that L’ami Serge stands his ground. To complete a part-line-up of the unknowns, another French import, Le Mercurey, represents Paul Nicholls but has to defy a stiff mark.

Unless someone from the Mullins’ camp is spotted backing L’ami Serge, Daneking is taken to continue his rise with a prestigious win.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 15TH:

CHELTENHAM: There are no easy answers today and this race is no exception. Present View has been the persistent tip locally, but the value has gone now and he may struggle to contain a horse with a similar profile, Buywise – another for whom there is a word. For those looking for something at a price, Persian Snow has a chance of reversing last month’s form with John’s Spirit and with his stable in such sparkling current form, he may belie his odds.

LINGFIELD 2.00: The listed event looks suitably competitive but presents in-form Intransigent with a solid opportunity. Medicean Man looks sure to play a part at this level and in Dubai this season, but may come up slightly short for this his first run since June. Intransigent’s most interesting opponent could be Golden Steps, who hovers on a decent mark after catching the eye at Ascot two runs ago. His latest effort over an inadequate five furlongs can be disregarded and whatever his fate here, the decision to campaign him over the all-weather this season looks sure to pay dividends.

2.35: Although the opposition looks strong, if coping with Snowmane and Fire Fighting, Educate looks primed to return to winning action here. Polytrack should be no barrier but the three-year-olds – Snowmane in particular – look progressive so, although Educate should be thereabouts, confidence is at a minimum.

CHELTENHAM FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14TH:

It’s Day One of the three-day meeting that sees the return of one of the big two Cheltenham pre-Christmas fixtures. Chances are we shall have some new names to conjure with by the conclusion of the coming days. One of these could easily be Champagne Present, whose participation in the 3.00, aided by the presence of Ruby Walsh – deputising for Tony McCoy – looks one of the most interesting new kids on the block. Narrowly beaten at Aintree in October when arguably unfortunate not to have won, that was a highly promising start over timber and this son of Presenting will only need to show normal improvement to score now.

Thirty-five minutes earlier a small and select field lines up for the Class 2 chase over an extended two-and-half miles. Champagne West and Dell’ Arca are interesting recruits, whilst Urban Hymn’s debut over the bigger obstacles suggests he can make his mark over this sphere. Colour Squadron, who is chasing his tail over fences and yet to score after numerous near-misses, may once again have to play second fiddle in the face of what looks like a strong challenge from some up-and-coming chasers.

4.05: Considering his reputation from last year, it will come as no surprise if Cup Final were to win this from a mark of 125. However, so far his claim to fame has been largely talk and although he is respected (particularly over this trip) likely favourite Cassells Rock is seen as a safer proposition. The race is tight and does not stop there, with Buster Dan Dan and Morito Du Berlais others worthy of consideration. However, in the belief he may start this season as a well-handicapped horse (has a big weight turn round with River Deep for example on their running at Newton Abbot last May) a chance is taken with Cloudy Beach.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7th:

Doncaster: 1.50: The inclusion of potential group performer Voice Of A Leader requires backers to take a second look here. So late in the season it is improbable he is being teed up for a target elsewhere. Notwithstanding the fact we have not seen him since he finished third to Be Ready and Barley Mow in a listed event over this course at the St Leger meeting last year, his able trainer has a record of preparing his charges fit and ready to run, therefore he is unlikely to be making up the numbers. Although hard to be dogmatic, Voice Of A Leader has the potential to make an impact in this company from a mark of 97, making any surfacing market confidence highly significant.

2.25: Jack Dexter has an opportunity here to make the 3lbs he receives from Tropics count. On ideal ground he bids to supplement his success in this last year when beating a strong field that included the improved Spinatrix whom he now meets on more favourable terms. From what looks like an ideal draw he has plenty in his favour. Tropics is entitled to go close but should struggle to concede weight to the selection based on Ascot running from last time. Spinatrix has to be a contender but needs a personal best, as does Dungannon who is arguably more effective at the minimum trip. After a highly promising return to action at Newmarket in September, Aetna was a disappointment behind Spinatrix last time. Despite being in her element on this surface that makes her hard to fancy in this elevated company now.

3.00: Conditions will suit Melrose Abbey, for whom the ground cannot be too soft. Never seen with a chance behind Silk Sari in the Park Hill, she may have needed the outing – her first for nearly three months. Earlier runs at Newmarket and Salisbury puts her in here with a solid chance and she looks the each-way alternative to likely favourite Princess Loulou – who, despite good efforts in defeat this season, has yet to get her head in front since scoring in two soft events last autumn.

3.35: Class act Mount Logan has the look of a late season improver but the prospect of ground riding on the soft side is a worry for a son of New Approach. There are no such worries for Manhattan Swing who, after a lucrative campaign over hurdles, looks well-handicapped reverting to the Flat. On his last appearance on the level in May he was an excellent second to Edge Of Sanity at Leopardstown from only a three pounds lower mark – a run that puts him in with a definite chance here. He lines up fit after finishing third last month at Chepstow in a listed event over timber and despite a wide draw looks overpriced. Dangers abound – many of them appearing to be on the upgrade. But at this eleventh hour of the season the handicapper has taken no chances, so they will need to raise their games even further to defy weight rises.

The jumping cards look inconclusive, although there may be an angle to be found in the Elite Hurdle at 3.15 at Wincanton. Rock On Ruby faces a stiff task conceding weight to several promising types, as does Purple Bay – who should not beat Hint Of Mint for one. Irving reappears after his Cheltenham Festival disappointment and given the conditions of the event will need to recover his best form in this company. He may have more to offer as the season unfolds. Hint Of Mint and Forgotten Voice enter calculations after recent pipe openers behind The New One at Kempton and both have the capability to become dangers to all. However, an in-form and progressive Bertimont – whose defeat of Dawalan at Chepstow was underlined at Ascot last Saturday – may be capable of taking this leap in class.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 1ST:

Newmarket: 12.50: Having run credibly against Commemorative on debut, then fourth to Mohatem over this course, but for a narrow defeat at Goodwood next time Secateur would be a confident call in this nursery. The problem is that Shadow Rock – who beat him a neck at Goodwood and re-opposes on only a pound worse terms – looks equally well-treated. With Secateur and Shadow Rock (showed a good attitude last time whereas Secateur did zigzag his chance away) racing from marks of 77 and 78 respectively, one or the other should prevail. A 10lbs hike threatens to edge out Dark Wave.

1.25: Lady Of Dubai looked like a filly heading in the right direction when skating away with her maiden over course and distance in September. This followed promise in her earlier attempts and any further improvement would make her very hard to beat now. If recovering form Bitter Lake would be the main danger. However she represents another conundrum from Godolphin. She did look useful on debut on the July course but has been absent since being burned off in the Albany, making her hard to fancy on her reappearance. At this time of year, current form is all-important. Toujours L’Amour looked a fortunate winner on debut (runner-up had the race won but jockey eased down), whilst the wins of Sagaciously and Irish Rookie need improving upon in this company. Lady Of Dubai looks solid.

2.35: Allowing for WFA, Mutakayyef has 1lb and half a length in hand of Air Pilot after their running in the Darley Stakes last time. It is tempting to think it may be enough to allow him to confirm that form, although we are talking about a narrow margin. That said it was Mutakayyef’s first run since the middle of June so improvement is likely.

3.10: After winning the Cambridgeshire and a similar handicap at Ascot where he enjoyed an unplanned for draw advantage a rating of 111 looks likely to flatter Bronze Angel, who now faces much hotter opposition. In any event he is at his best in big fields so looks one to swerve here. Linton and Emell constitute dangers beyond the obvious that could easily have a say in the outcome.

Wetherby: The Grade 2 Charlie Hall looks a decent renewal, which could go to new kid in town Taquin Du Seuil who, after a pipe opener at Newton Abbott three weeks ago that failed to go to plan against a couple of speedier types, should be more at home in this field that places a greater emphasis on stamina. In receipt of 10lbs from Silviniaco Conti, Taquin Du Seuil can make it count and looks the sort to make his presence felt in this company as the season progresses.

Breeders’ Cup: Santa Anita: 21.05: A blisteringly quick juvenile, there is every reason to assume No Nay Never has lost none of his edge judged on his latest success at Keenland.

22.22: It’s about time Flintshire got himself back on the score sheet and on his preferred ground, the Breeders’ Cup Turf could present the ideal opportunity. The trouble is he is winless since last July and horses with this kind of profile often find it hard to recover the winning thread. On his best form (including his latest second in the Arc) he is the form pick. Really fast ground may be against Telescope, whilst a revitalised Main Sequence is another that carries baggage. Even so a trio of Grade 1 successes in the USA signifies he is now on track. Value looks to lurk in the shape of Arlington Million winner Hardest Core, whose form from that with Magician and Side Glance suggests it is not far short of the best on offer. Currently available at 10/1 and a proven performer on this ground and over this trip, Hardest Core is the pick.
23.40: Toronado looks a worthy favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Mile but he will still need to run to his very best to win. A line through Kingman gives him the edge over Mustajeeb. Anodin is a decent performer that has so far come up short at this level. We know a little about Seek Again, who was progressive at the end of last season. Even allowing for improvement since his move, it is unlikely he will be up to winning this. Once again value is king and Karakontie – saddled with what could be a disadvantageous draw – was nevertheless murdered in running in the Foret and should not be judged on that run alone. After a relatively light season, as a French Guineas winner, he appeals as the betting alternative to Toronado.

Based on races viewed, Spy’s analysis and list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

FRIDAY OCTOBER 31ST

NEWMARKET: 2.00: Not beaten far in the Cheveley Park when fourth to Tiggy Wiggy, Terror looks nailed on to win this; although, from a betting perspective it is of course late in the season to be nominating fillies. The opposition here looks far from testing, with only Avenue Montaigne (not seen since August) lining up with worthwhile form at this level. Any temptation to invest in Terror is readily tempered by the knowledge she is sure to be odds-on.

2.35: Historically this odd little six furlong conditions stakes tends to favour two-year-olds over their older rivals. This year’s juveniles are represented by Apache Storm who, despite a recent Kempton win, lines up with turf form that fails to inspire. However, on breeding she should appreciate the ground and the further 3lbs she receives as a result of Cam Hardie’s 3lbs allowance may be enough to tip the scales in her favour against ordinary opposition.

3.10: With two subsequent winners having emerged from the Musselburgh race in which Leaderene finished fourth last time, her run has a solid look to it, meaning, from the same mark, she could be the safest option here. Worryingly though, she is the third filly to catch the eye on a decidedly dodgy card.

It may be an early winter start for Newmarket but beneath the shadow of the Blue Mountains given the time difference, in Santa Anita day one of the Breeders’ Cup commences just as the local little perishers and urchins in the UK are rattling their begging bowls for the infernal ritual that is Halloween. This signifies it is time for racing fans to draw the curtains, turn off the lights and turn up the volume. In the 21.25 it is surprising to see Windsor Castle winner and speedball Hootenanny make a sudden leap from six furlongs in the Morny to a mile here against rivals that are more obvious candidates over this trip. The progressive Commemorative will need to pull out more than when winning the Autumn Stakes last time at Newmarket, but he is on a roll at present. Imperia carries American confidence but takes a step up in class. War Envoy looks a solid alternative to all. Good runs at the highest level here and in Ireland mean he should not be fazed by the occasion from a fair draw. With the assistance of Ryan Moore, a big run is envisaged from this son of War Front who is bred for the job and should have no problem with the forecast fast ground.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 25th:

Doncaster: 2.10: Growl may be capable of recovering winning form now he faces less testing company. Although thought to be below form in the Acomb at York, on reflection, a seven length defeat by Dutch Connection is probably a reasonable reflection of his ability after his run at Newbury when he was beaten a similar distance by Toocoolforschool in the Mill Reef. With nothing of that calibre in this field, he has his chance to justify the lofty home reputation he enjoys.

2.40: This is a tight handicap that could be monopolised by three-year-olds. Although nothing stands out, expected soft ground should suit an in-form Ruwasi who may be a pound or two ahead of his rating.

3.15: Depending on which form line you choose to take, cases can be made for several here. Last year’s winner Dungannon would have claims on that run, with Ballesteros and Confessional coming out the best of those that opposed that day on these revised terms. All three are hard to win with; however Confessional looks marginally most interesting on current form and these conditions will suit. In contrast it is hard to be over-optimistic about Golden Steps who tries the minimum trip for the first time having looked at Ascot – when admittedly unlucky in running – as if maybe a step up from six would benefit. Add to the mix the possible vagaries of the draw and clearly this race is hard to predict. One can only hope: Confessional shapes as if he is about to hit form but the low draw means he has no room to manoeuvre if he finds himself on the wrong part of the course.

3.50: After a lazy but willing enough victory in the Royal Lodge, Elm Park should be even more effective on this easier ground. Those with established form don’t quite look good enough to trouble him. The unexposed pair comprising of Celestial Path and Jacobean – who made up an enormous amount of ground having got behind on debut when eventually closing on always handy Royal Navy Ship – are open to improvement and look the major dangers.

5.00: Despite a couple of flashes indicating all is not lost this season, Top Notch Tonto’s overall profile this year is unconvincing, making him hard to fancy. Of the opposition, a much-improved Louis The Pious looks to have most in his favour and the weight allowance he receives from what may prove to be his biggest danger, Linton – who shaped as if needing his reappearance run last time – could tip the scales in his favour.

NEWBURY: For those prepared to take his best form into account, Red Galileo may be worth chancing in the St Simon Stakes at 2.20. A winner of one race, but fifth in this year’s Derby, the son of Dubawi has put a couple of decent runs together this autumn and it could be significant that on the occasions he has flopped the ground was firm. There are no such worries at Newbury now and if he shows the sort of form he is capable of he can take what looks like a weak Group 3. Sky Hunter’s belated win at Ayr last month told us little and it seems a long time since he finished third in the 2013 French Derby. Not looking in love with the game, there is no guarantee the hood will work a second time.

2.50: The fillies in the Listed look much of a muchness. Muffri’ha and Silver Rainbow could be anything at this stage, whilst there doesn’t look to be much to choose between Lacing, Astrelle and Shagah.

At CHEPSTOW there is a strong word for Son Du Berlais in the Persian War Hurdle at 3.35. A lightly-raced import from France that was impressive when winning at Newton Abbot last month, he is expected to scale the heights this season and represents yet more ammunition for the battalions that belong to the Nick Henderson yard.

CHAMPIONS’ DAY – Saturday Oct 18th

After receiving enough rain to sink a battleship, Ascot’s big autumn meeting is likely to be staged under a blue-and-grey sky with the ever-present prospect of a further deluge only a rolling cloud away.

The weather threatens to take the glitter from the proceedings, but the quality of racing remains constant. The Long Distance Cup that kick-starts the card at 1.45 is scheduled to be run on ground already described as heavy – soft in places. Versatile as regards trip and ground, last year’s St Leger winner and this year’s Gold Cup winner Leading Light is clearly the horse to beat. However, in view of conditions, this is not a card that should appeal to those in search of the obvious and that are prepared to take commensurate odds. The field is strong but the ground may even things up in favour of Whiplash Willie, who has run well this season against top class opponents but will come into his own on this surface. More importantly, for every stride he takes on ground he relishes, his opponents become vulnerable. With only just over a length to find on Estimate on their running in the Doncaster Cup, and after a somewhat unlucky but creditable effort in the Cadran, on ground that cannot be soft enough, Whiplash Willie has a chance to a share of the limelight at this belated stage of the season. At worse he looks a solid each-way prospect. The inclusion of unexposed Forgotten Rules adds interest. On pedigree he should cope with the ground but he has to prove he is up to this company. Although his win at Galway gives rise to the claim he could be rated within a few pounds of the principal players, backing him requires too much of a leap of faith. Estimate and the improving Big Orange (handles the mud but should struggle against Whiplash Willie on revised terms since Chester) appear to have chances in what looks no more than a five-horse contest.

2.20: G Force faces a raft of different conditions to those that saw him finally gain a big pot at Haydock. There is every chance that proven autumn campaigner Gordon Lord Byron may reverse Haydock Sprint form with him, but of greater interest could be Viztoria, a filly who peaked at this time last year, was a recent winner at the Curragh, and handles heavy ground. A rattling good filly on her day, she arrives here fresher than most and has the look of a horse that has been targeted at this event.

2.55: Perm any one of three, but there are plenty of reasons to switch allegiance as we go here. On the face of it the winner should come from the trio that comprises the improving Silk Sari, Chicquita and Hadaatha, but it is hard to be confident which way it will go.

3.30: The betting for the Queen Elizabeth II is dominated by the three-year-olds Night Of Thunder and Charm Spirit, who look closely matched on the evidence of their meetings to date. Both have serious chances but the ever-improving Integral, who according to her trainer is simply getting better with age, could run them close. Although hard to fancy on the balance of his form, it is worth pointing out that Kingsbarns finished third in this last year (not managed to equal that since) so it could be – a winner of the Racing Post a juvenile – that this is his time of year. Integral is a tentative pick.

4.05: The Champion Stakes revolves round Cirrus Des Aigles – the question being: at the age of eight, is it reasonable to assume he is anywhere near his best? Judged on a scrambling victory at Longchamp in the Group 2 Dollar (from which he was disqualified), that seems debatable. His current price assumes plenty and although I would dearly like to see him prevail, I will believe it when I see it. Free Eagle – once touted as the best horse Dermot Weld has trained – faces a demanding task after an interrupted season on only his fourth run and on ground that may not be ideal. In what is a far from straightforward contest, Noble Mission lines up with less advanced excuses than most and despite a once-chequered record, appears a safer betting proposition than those mentioned.

4.45: Bookmakers will be confident of a successful close to the meeting in what looks like a wide open Class 2 handicap. This easy ground should be ideal for Velox who has made steady improvement since an unlucky run at Epsom. His latest effort in the Cambridgeshire emphasises how much he has improved despite the constant attention of the handicapper. Luck will play its part, but, in as much as a horse in a race like this does make appeal, possible pattern performer Velox looks a very interesting contender from a double-figure price.

FUTURE CHAMPIONS’ DAY – Friday Oct 17th

NEWMARKET: 2.25: The Group 3 Cornwallis has looked a natural target for Squats since his Ascot victory in September when he displayed an electrifying turn of foot that took him from last-to-first inside a furlong. Beating Profitable that day – whom he has nothing to fear from on even better terms now – that killer-kick was in evidence last time at Ayr when only a bad draw and a messy race prevented him from lifting a listed event. Being by Dandy Man, it is hoped the soft ground should not be against him and he looks a reasonable wager to ignite what promises to be a busy betting weekend.

2.55: Although hardly a betting proposition at shades of odds-on, Ivawood ought to continue his run in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. Having won on soft ground, a well-grown two-year-old with a current physical advantage over his contemporaries, it is hard to envisage him getting beaten as a juvenile. An improved Muhaarar (who was behind Ivawood in the July Stakes) and the proven Cappella Sansevero represent his biggest dangers, but the favourite will have to underperform to surrender an unbeaten record.

3.25: Runner-up in the Moyglare and winner of the Rockfel, Lucida has the appropriate form to suggest she will win her first Group 1. Again, her price is likely to build-in such an assumption and in the face of strong opposition, although expected to win, encountering the softest surface of her career so far, and with Agnes Stewart and Marsh Hawk both expected to act on the surface, her task is not straightforward. Therefore from a betting viewpoint she is probably best watched.

4.00: On a day packed with quality, the ground means there may be a couple of notable absentees from the Dewhurst this year, but it is nevertheless a top class event. Progressive Estidhkaar is the obvious one to beat and based on his performance in the Champagne at Doncaster he looks ready for this transition to Group 1 company. He faces six smart rivals – none of whom can be comfortably discarded. Smuggler’s Cove attempts a serious rise in class after a couple of taking wins in Ireland. His action suggests he should cope with much softer ground, but as yet he cannot lay claim to being in this class. Secret Brief and Maftool (no certainty to cope with the ground) are decent, whilst the well-thought of Kodi Bear makes his reappearance after winning a listed at Ascot in July. Dutch Connection has worked his way up to this level. His form stacks up and therefore he should not be underestimated, particularly as he is a son of soft ground sire Dutch Art. Belardo is considered to be better than his latest run when behind Estidhkaar at Doncaster and with the hood now reached for, could get closer this time. Estidhkaar clearly warrants his place at the head of the market but even so will need to produce his A-game to score.

5.10: An 18lbs weight rise means Air Pilot has paid the penalty for his point blank success at Newbury last time. As a son of Zamindar he clearly relishes easy ground but this opposition, as it should in a Group 3, threatens to be testing. A relatively fresh Code Of Honour is interesting after his latest win at Newbury, whilst the proven performer at this level, Grandeur (who does not always deliver on the day) lines-up with the right qualifications on paper.

Newmarket stages an excellent card, one on which not everything may follow the script. Packed with interest, Squats is nominated as a value bet and as a curtain-raiser for a couple of similar suggested wagers on Saturday.

Redcar: Having created a favourable impression on debut at Newmarket (where he went to post much too freely so no surprise to see a hood applied now) Tawaasheesh is presented with a soft option in a maiden he should win at 1.55. However, it is early days to take a short price about him and a watching brief is advised.
Soft ground means one or two short-priced favourites may not be the safe prospects they appear at Haydock, whilst jump fans get what for them is their first taste of action at the home of National Hunt at Cheltenham. With something for everyone, racing fans are presented with an engrossing day.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 11th:

Newmarket: 2.05: The card starts with the Group 3 Autumn Stakes – a race with a good history. Nashwan was a past winner – more recently Kingston Hill took it last year. The line-up this time round looks potentially strong. Recent Doncaster winner Commemorative should not be underestimated – a rough assessment puts him on a par with several of these: notably Future Empire, Bartholomew Fair and Strong Chemistry, all of whom have similar credentials. However, recent Leopardstown winner Order Of St George scored by a convincing eight lengths then and not only stays this trip, but is effective on easy ground. He is a serious contender here.

2.40: This is probably not a race to get too involved with; nevertheless, a step up in trip looks likely to suit the progressive Provenance, who is not the easiest of rides but who has the advantage of regular partner Ryan Moore. Provenance and Blue Waltz look two fillies in top form at this late stage of the season and are therefore nominated as the two against the field.

3.10: A further 5lbs hike threatens to sabotage Connecticut; even so, a proven smart performer, he may be capable of offsetting that rise now that he returns to a mile-and-a-half. Epsom Hill and Battersea are horses with similar profiles in a tight contest, whilst Top Tug – who we have not seen May – looked decent when he defeated Cloudscape that day and could be ahead of his rating.

3.50: The Cesarewitch – second leg of the famous Autumn Double – looks as knotty as ever. Quick Jack is surely yet another cleverly placed runner from his imaginative trainer, who seems to turn out plots as regularly as Stephen King does his novels. Carefully campaigned over both hurdles and on the Flat and with an enviable racing record, representing Tony Martin, Quick Jack will not be making up the numbers. However, he will need to produce a personal best from a mark of 94. Big Easy ran an excellent trial over this course and distance in September and looks likely to play a part in the finish. Two less obvious candidates that could outrun their prices are Groovejet (has her stamina to prove but a chance on her Park Hill second if seeing out the trip) and possibly the best each-way contender in the race, Communicator, who comes here on the back of a good run at Haydock and will appreciate this test of stamina and the ease underfoot.

York: 3.30: The wily old bird that is Mick Easterby has chosen the competitive Coral Sprint to launch a race-fit Aetna after her eye-catching return to action at Newmarket at the end of last month. Narrowly beaten after a staying-on third on ground that was too lively that day, she will find today’s conditions more to her liking and, relatively fresh at this late stage of the season, promises to be hard to beat.

YORK – FRIDAY OCTOBER 9th:

Sometimes you find yourself looking at race cards and wondering if you would be better being otherwise employed – deciphering a document written in Mandarin for example.

Horse racing demands a fair degree of guesswork: guesswork over the draw, the going, whether the German group winner that has changed stables can exploit what looks like a generous mark; or whether its best days are never to be reproduced and best forgotten. Whether a step up in trip will suit, whether the fact that a horse has only won on left-handed tracks is a coincidence, or whether there is a deeper-seated explanation lurking between those lugs that perch at the top if its head. These and other imponderables combine to make an MOT-type checklist punters are required to address before striking a bet with any confidence.

Sometimes it all seems too convoluted for comfort. Sometimes it seems we are faced with situations that require us to throw caution and common sense to the winds before picking up the phone or pressing the button.

Those making a success of this business will mostly tell you that waiting for the perfect bet is pretty much a waste of time, and that the answer is to employ a scatter gun approach – betting as often as possible in the belief that you will be right on enough occasions to bust the percentages.

Place one hundred bets a month and achieve a strike rate of 25% and, providing the average winning price exceeds 3/1, profit is guaranteed. On the face of it any ratio that allows 75% of selections to lose and still show a profit looks like it’s part of a tempting proposition. It also takes a good deal of pressure from the punter’s shoulders. All gamblers get things wrong (the clue is in the title). Getting things wrong in horse racing is a given. Even when you are right you can be wrong. Not many pursuits carry such a deflating caveat.

The trick to success is to constantly identify horses whose prices are greater than their winning chances. Doing this is a knack. Bookmakers are engaged in putting a gun to punters’ heads and making them tread the exact opposite path. They want them to strike bets at prices that reflect a lower chance than suggested by available information and the wild card that is probability.

Therefore, as a punter, if you contrive to consistently outsmart the market, your chance of long-term profit is greatly increased. The trick here, as with all success stories, is not to try. By that I mean, don’t set out to identify market mistakes – let them come your way by natural selection. After form analysis, by targeting those candidates that disregard the obvious (famously, and correctly identified as the bleedin’ obvious by John Cleese), and concentrating on races that feature wobbly favourites, or a runner that you consider to be underpriced for whatever reason (owned by a member of royalty; ridden by the jockey of the moment, talked up by a high-profile pundit or organisation), you will increase the possibility of your selection being overpriced. As with all positives and negatives – for every underpriced runner, an overpriced one must follow.

You might wonder where all this is leading on a column that is entitled “Free Tips” and advertises itself as concentrating on the York program for Friday October 9th.

Fair point… The York card – like many this time of the year – is far from easy. The races are well-subscribed and in many cases contain horses that have leapfrogged their way to the headlines in recent weeks. Two, seen as the most likely winners on the card, are hardly likely to have escaped the notice of the odds-compilers. Consequently the question is whether we can expect their prices to be bigger than their winning chances.

After only two runs, the handicapper has not too much to go on when assessing a mark for Acolyte, who runs in the nursery at 2.00. What we can say is that seven furlongs appeared to stretch this son of Acclamation on his debut when third to subsequent Royal Lodge winner Elm Park. Dropped to today’s trip of six furlongs, he was always in control at Kempton last time and a mark of 78 could easily be generous. On the face of it his opponents look exposed; therefore, if reproducing what he looks to be capable of, Acolyte should win. No prices are available at the time of writing. There can be little doubt that Acolyte will be favourite: the question potential backers have to ask is whether the price will justify a bet. My guess (and that is the correct term for what follows) is that Acolyte will be 9/4 in the morning and that he could easily represent a 13/8 chance in reality. So, to quote a well-known television presenter: Deal or No Deal?

Having won the Silver Cambridgeshire at Newmarket two weeks ago, GM Hopkins lines up with similar credentials in the 3.00. It could be argued the handicapper has more information to go on here and therefore that a mark of 100 is an accurate assessment of GM Hopkins’ capability. He did win with plenty of authority at Newmarket and, although the handicapper has hoisted him by 9lbs which nudges him towards pattern class, at the time of writing he faces seventeen rivals, none of them looking as if they are likely to produce an ace from the bottom of the deck. Even so his task may not appear to be as straightforward as Acolyte’s, which has to be built-in to his price now. There is very chance his price may be about right: 11/4 in the morning – 2/1 come race time.

Both horses are feasible selections but, anyone can make a selection – the meaningful question is: are they bets?

Bearing in mind, with the attainable example shown earlier – that of a strike rate of 25% and an average price of over 3/1 about winners mathematically guaranteeing a profit – they hover on the periphery. Of the two, Acolyte looks the safer, but, not one to allow bookmakers to dictate my betting habits unless it can be helped; only when prices are chalked up tomorrow are we in a better position to make a decision…

SATURDAY OCTOBER 4th:

Newmarket Tips

Fillies get a shot at a big payday in the opening sales race at 1.50. Osaila’s form with Cursory Glance – whom she has encountered twice – entitles her to market prominence here and she looks like the filly to beat, especially as the Moyglare form was franked by Lucida in last week’s Rockfel.

Half-an-hour later at 2.20 the colts’ equivalent looks more open. Unexposed Tannaaf – a clear-cut winner on the July course in August who is highly regarded (reflected by a Dewhurst entry) – is likely to prove a serious candidate. If the forecast rain arrives that may suit The Warrior, whose action suggests firm ground at the Curragh last time – allied to an interrupted passage – may have been against him. Those with established form are represented by last week’s Royal Lodge fourth Misterioso – who may improve for that run his first since the middle of July – and Secret Brief, who is not certain to confirm with latest running with Heartbreak Hero. That said the standard they set is not over high so the promising Tannaaf is taken to come out on top en route to greater heights.

3.30: A glittering day at the Suffolk track is crowned by the Group 1 Sun Chariot. Once again it has attracted a strong field and on a day when Gallic eyes are largely focused on Longchamp, the French field what could be a formidable challenge. Responsible for three runners with excellent claims, Andre Fabre is mob-handed. Fintry steps into Group 1 company for the first time and Esoterique returns to the scene of her Dahlia triumph after a credible effort against Charm Spirit and Toronado in the Moulin last month. Although she has a little in hand of her stable companion Miss France, the latter has had a relatively light season after winning the 1000 Guineas here in May and is likely to be sharper now. Having looked like a top class filly as a juvenile and again when winning the season’s first classic, she is the selection. Integral, who was second in a weaker renewal last year but who has gone from strength to strength since, has to be respected but Miss France is the call.

After what looked like a terrific effort in the Ayr Gold Cup from the unfavoured side of the track, Minalisa steps back into listed company at 4.40. There is a danger that strong winds and rain may alter conditions significantly, in which case she should not be inconvenienced by softening ground. Even with her 3lbs penalty she should be hard to beat.

(Note was a non runner due to ground change)

Ascot: After his demolition job in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster, Muthmir makes the anticipated leap into higher company, contesting the listed that kicks off the card at 2.05. Blitzing to a course record on St Leger day, if that run is taken at face value he is potentially well ahead of his official rating and should prove too progressive and too good for decent but exposed rivals.

(Note was a non runner due to ground change)

ASCOT FRIDAY OCTOBER 3rd:

Handicaps rule here on a difficult card that contains two long-distance events and a classified and a listed that both contain horses that are hard to evaluate.

Betting opportunities appear limited, although Lawyer, who his stable appear to have been placed in a race with the handicapper after a fair third last weekend at Newmarket, would have a strong chance in the Class 3 handicap at 4.15 if repeating that latest effort. Racing from the same mark as when a close third to Consign last Thursday, Lawyer will rise a few pounds on the back of that run so has his best chance of the season now. A decent run from Consign in the 2.30 on the card will surely boost his chance and could easily result in his price contracting. With better to come over the weekend, he is seen as the only positive on an otherwise quiet day.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 4th:

Newmarket: Fillies get a shot at a big payday in the opening sales race at 1.50. Osaila’s form with Cursory Glance – whom she has encountered twice – entitles her to market prominence here and she looks like the filly to beat, especially as the Moyglare form was franked by Lucida in last week’s Rockfel.

Half-an-hour later at 2.20 the colts’ equivalent looks more open. Unexposed Tannaaf – a clear-cut winner on the July course in August who is highly regarded (reflected by a Dewhurst entry) – is likely to prove a serious candidate. If the forecast rain arrives that may suit The Warrior, whose action suggests firm ground at the Curragh last time – allied to an interrupted passage – may have been against him. Those with established form are represented by last week’s Royal Lodge fourth Misterioso – who may improve for that run his first since the middle of July – and Secret Brief, who is not certain to confirm with latest running with Heartbreak Hero. That said the standard they set is not over high so the promising Tannaaf is taken to come out on top en route to greater heights.

3.30: A glittering day at the Suffolk track is crowned by the Group 1 Sun Chariot. Once again it has attracted a strong field and on a day when Gallic eyes are largely focused on Longchamp, the French field what could be a formidable challenge. Responsible for three runners with excellent claims, Andre Fabre is mob-handed. Fintry steps into Group 1 company for the first time and Esoterique returns to the scene of her Dahlia triumph after a credible effort against Charm Spirit and Toronado in the Moulin last month. Although she has a little in hand of her stable companion Miss France, the latter has had a relatively light season after winning the 1000 Guineas here in May and is likely to be sharper now. Having looked like a top class filly as a juvenile and again when winning the season’s first classic, she is the selection. Integral, who was second in a weaker renewal last year but who has gone from strength to strength since, has to be respected but Miss France is the call.

After what looked like a terrific effort in the Ayr Gold Cup from the unfavoured side of the track, Minalisa steps back into listed company at 4.40. There is a danger that strong winds and rain may alter conditions significantly, in which case she should not be inconvenienced by softening ground. Even with her 3lbs penalty she should be hard to beat.

Ascot: After his demolition job in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster, Muthmir makes the anticipated leap into higher company, contesting the listed that kicks off the card at 2.05. Blitzing to a course record on St Leger day, if that run is taken at face value he is potentially well ahead of his official rating and should prove too progressive and too good for decent but exposed rivals.

 ASCOT FRIDAY OCTOBER 3rd:

Handicaps rule here on a difficult card that contains two long-distance events and a classified and a listed that both contain horses that are hard to evaluate.

Betting opportunities appear limited, although Lawyer, who his stable appear to have been placed in a race with the handicapper after a fair third last weekend at Newmarket, would have a strong chance in the Class 3 handicap at 4.15 if repeating that latest effort. Racing from the same mark as when a close third to Consign last Thursday, Lawyer will rise a few pounds on the back of that run so has his best chance of the season now. A decent run from Consign in the 2.30 on the card will surely boost his chance and could easily result in his price contracting. With better to come over the weekend, he is seen as the only positive on an otherwise quiet day.

NEWMARKET SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 27th:

Nafaqa’s defeat of subsequent Mill Reef winner Toocoolforschool means he is the form pick in the Royal Lodge at 2.35. A fluent winner of his maiden at Newbury after posting definite promise when slow to stride in the Chesham at Royal Ascot, he should have no problem with the trip. Just short of top class, this Group 2 looks a realistic target for him. Elm Park is held in high regard and this recent acquisition for Qatar Racing has been supplemented for this. He and Lord Ben Stack (whose form is solid but requires improving upon) are seen as the principal dangers.

3.10: After what has been a sparkling first campaign, Tiggy Wiggy bids to end her season on a high in the Group 1 Cheveley Park. Based on her last two wins – blitzing rivals in Newbury’s Super Sprint and beating subsequent Group 1 Moyglare winner Cursory Glance in the Lowther – only the vagaries that often beset her sex at this time of year threaten her excellent record. She ought to have too much speed for old adversary Anthem Alexander (who is 3lbs better off than at York) and the wide-margin maiden winners Tendu and Terror, both of whom could be anything but surely won’t be good enough for this test so soon in their careers. That said, Tendu has been supplemented for this from a stable that is not in the habit of making mistakes, so she should be respected at the very least. The inclusion of French filly High Celebrity promises to add spice to an intriguing contest.

3.50: So what are we to make of the Cambridgeshire? Cornrow has obvious claims now he tackles this longer trip after a taking run in a strong handicap last time. The forecast fast ground should be ideal. The progressive Velox, reunited with the last man to be successful on him, Cam Hardie, and therefore set to benefit from his 5lbs allowance, is another with strong pretensions, although he might be more effective with cut in the ground. Balty Boys, a decent staying on second to Captain Cat last time, could be the value at a price from his low draw. Less convincing but of some interest after a run last time that suggested all may not be lost, God Willing, a useful two-year-old that failed to progress, is worth a second glance.

6.05: Although facing several with upward profiles, Captain Morley will appreciate a return to twelve furlongs – a trip he ran well over at Royal Ascot when third to Elite Army and Windshear. Clearly he failed to last home in the Melrose last time and his current mark gives him a chance although he has to concede weight to several likely lads.

NEWMARKET SEPTEMBER 26th:

Headquarters has done punters few favours today with a card that may be interesting but looks a hard one to decipher.

After an excellent second in the Group 1 Moyglare to Cursory Glance last time, Lucida looks an obvious selection in the Group 2 Rockfel at 2.40. It is unlikely she will encounter anything of the quality she met last time. With no Cursory Glance, Found or Malabar in this field, her chance is clear-cut providing she is able to replicate that effort.

Less obvious is the outcome of the Group 2 Shadwell Joel Stakes at 3.15, although Captain Cat looks a worthy favourite and the one to beat. Tulius has a chance but is better with cut in the ground, whilst it would be no surprise if the improving Custom Cut, Outstrip – who was in fine form at this time last year but comes from an unpredictable stable – or Arod, who probably requires ten furlongs to show his best, were able to upset the applecart.

Although making only limited betting appeal, after a reasonable fourth in the St Leger, Windshear is entitled to start favourite for the Listed Godolphin Stakes. The benefactors are represented by one of their more complicated inmates in Penglai Pavilion. Useful when with Andre Fabre last year, he has yet to show form approaching that level with his new handler and can only be watched. Derby fifth Red Galileo seems to have two ways of running and has only ever won a maiden on the all-weather. Flying The Flag may find this trip stretching his suspect stamina; whereas on breeding, Ayrad (who has something to find with the principals) looks all set to benefit from a step up to twelve furlongs.

NEWMARKET SEPTEMBER 25th:

2.00: Although just behind Game Pie at Doncaster when both were making their debuts, most observers would confidently expect Mohatem to turn that form round in a heartbeat here. Noted finishing strongly from an unpromising position, Mohatem freewheeled into fifth behind Commemorative in what looked like a reasonable maiden and this son of Distorted Humour gets his chance today. Only ground-changing rain would temper confidence.

3.10: It has been a quiet year for Jeremy Noseda’s one-time virus-ridden stable, but now they appear to be emerging back into daylight many of his charges return to action relatively fresh. Dance Of Heroes has such a look and, assuming he will improve after an excellent reappearance effort at Sandown last month, could be handily weighted against more exposed rivals.

3.40: After a cracking run in a valuable sales race last time when third behind his stable companion Mubtaghaa, Valley Of Fire takes another step into the unknown now as he faces Group 3 company. There is no obvious reason to expect a reversal with Mubtaghaa, but Valley Of Fire, who was having only his second appearance after winning a moderate maiden on debut, left the clear impression he was capable of better and it is significant his shrewd trainer appears willing to sacrifice a winnable mark by contesting this.

4.15: Assuming there is no reoccurrence of the pre-race jitters that certainly contributed to a below-par run last time in Ireland, Pallasator ought to be good enough to win the Listed Jockey Club Rose Bowl, exploiting Times Up’s age and Flying Officer’s absence from the track since the spring. His Ebor fourth from top weight gives him strong claims.

5.55: With half the scheduled field out of the weights, Aetna – who has been off the track since May – will be popular, but her chance would be greatly increased on softer ground. This is no cakewalk and it could be she will be a different proposition next time with this run under her belt and on ground more suited to her preference.

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 20th:

AYR: A big day for the track – a bigger one for the bookmakers if punters aren’t careful!
2.05: After a fair run at Doncaster last week in a cut-and-thrust Flying Childers when never able to quite get to grips with the leaders, Ainippe shaped as if she would be more at home over this extra furlong. By and large her opponents in this Group 3 will have to pull out more than so far shown. On the face of it Zuhoor Baynoona’s third to Patience Alexander (gone off the boil since) and Tiggy Wiggy at York in May gives her a chance; but to a degree that was a race of two halves, leading to a misleading result. Having been off the track since, she can only be watched from a low draw, making Ainippe a safer option.

2.40: With at least twenty-six runners scheduled to line-up the Silver Cup is naturally set to be fiercely competitive, so with any number of factors in their favour – including the vagaries of an unpredictable draw – bookmakers will be banking on a result here. Punters tempted to play in this are reduced to a virtual pin-sticking exercise. Surely no one will be looking to bet seriously in this or its gold counterpart. Cutting through a long short list: well-fancied Redvers may be better over seven, a remark that also applies to Mission Approved. On the positive side, cases can be made for the in-form duo that is Bogart (appears to be ideally drawn and likely to be well-backed on that alone) and Arctic Feeling, who it would appear is currently in the form of his life, but, based on the evidence of yesterday when high numbers seemed favoured, may not be ideally berthed drawn one. From what looks like another desirable draw, Huntsmans Close (who is closely matched with Arctic Feeling but lacks his scope) is another likely to attract morning money.

3.50: Winner of a strong handicap at the Curragh last Sunday (Arctic Feeling was fourth), comparatively lightly-raced Watchable could be a bit better than his current mark. An excellent third to Louis The Pious (weighted to confirm that form but peaked that day and has made little impact since) in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, he clearly handles the hurly burly big races provide and another big run looks on the cards if able to defy what now looks like a draw disadvantage. A winner of a listed race at Naas in July and with decent form last autumn, Minalisa could be fancied to outrun a fat price but the two box is cause for concern. The draw at tracks such at Ayr is transitory, so it may change with conditions overnight. However, at the time of writing there is clear-cut evidence a high number (the higher the better) is preferable.

Newbury: 1.50: Hillstar ought to get on the score sheet in this Group 3 but it is hard to be confident enough to translate that comment to a bet. A decent enough type, it seems fair to say he is something of an underachiever that will need to pull out his best in order to defeat Tasady and the progressive pair comprising of Glorious Protector and Nautilus.

2.20: Limato’s fluent success in the Rose Bowl over this course from Cotai Glory makes him the obvious choice here and he should prove hard to beat. Toocoolforschool looks potentially overpriced in view of solid form that approaches this level, but he probably will be caught out by Limato and Strath Burn who look the principals in that order.

Newmarket: 2.30: A step up in trip ought to suit Lady Of Dubai, who has taken the eye on her two runs to date.

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 19th:

On a big day in Scotland it seems reasonable to accord Ayr star billing on the racing front. By and large the card is tough: plenty of handicaps featuring some tricky customers…
Roossey would have claims in the 2.05 on his York effort, but, worryingly for potential supporters, he did pull hard last time – in the event probably doing well to finish third – so a reoccurrence of such antics will make life doubly hard. Enlace, Son Of Africa and Honeysuckle Lil are among several dangerous opponents.

Boris Grigoriev did us a favour at this meeting last year and is a definite contender again in the 3.10. He has the look of a horse that his able trainer has stored up for something such as this. Pea Shooter is an obvious danger.

After two wins that confirm there is more to come, Squats takes the expected hike in grade to contest the Listed at 3.45. Particularly impressive last time at Ascot when coming from last to first to win a nursery after meeting trouble in running, he has a killer finishing kick. Judging by what we saw at Ascot he is value for more than the 7lbs he has been raised and can put these rivals to the sword. Despite bringing French Group 3 form to the table, possible favourite Jane’s Memory looks as if she will be better suited by rain. Mind Of Madness, who is top-rated going into this, should struggle to concede 3lbs to the selection.

At NEWBURY, despite the form of the Convivial not really working out as many expected, Foreign Diplomat will shape much fitter after his debut third then, meaning this well-regarded son of Oasis Dream will take all the beating in their opening maiden at 1.50. He looks open to more improvement than twice-raced Desert Force, whilst the maiden in which Encore D’Or made his debut at Newmarket did not look a particularly strong one. It will take a very smart newcomer to lower Foreign Diplomat’s colours.

ST LEGER SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 13th:

DONCASTER: 2.05: The card for the last classic of 2014 kicks off with aspirants to that level in 2015. The Group 2 Champagne Stakes is one of the better juvenile trials and with three top contenders in opposition this year’s field looks strong. There is no denying Superlative winner Estidhkaar lines up with hefty form credentials. He looks a decent prospect but the three pound penalty means he will have to be top notch to defy the well-thought of Belardo and the solid War Envoy. Belardo’s only defeat was at Newmarket in the July Stakes when, on horrible ground and from a disadvantageous draw, he was a running-on fourth to Ivawood. Wins either side underline his potential and he looked very smart when scooting clear at Newbury last time. Dewhurst-bound, he should be followed until beaten and gets the call.

2.40: Arguably unlucky at Goodwood in the Steward’s Cup (his second run within a week) when he saw too much daylight; after a respectable break, Muthmir gets another crack at a big handicap over this extended five furlongs. A two pound rise is not prohibitive, and from a mark of 100 he gets a chance to confirm the impression he is group material. Of the rest, plenty can be fancied but Bogart (11lbs better in with Muthmir for York and in better form now), has slipped to a workable mark and is worth considering.

3.15: Two talented types with an under-performing profile threaten to dominate the betting for this. Having failed to sparkle at sprinting, Aljamaaheer reverts to his best trip, taking on Gregorian, who should have won the Group 3 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last time but was worried out of it by Breton Rock. Although he has a bit to find with the best of these, That Is The Spirit can be relied upon to run his race. Far from disgraced against older horses last time, he looks a safer option than his highflying opposition.

3.50: The St Leger trip has often proved a buffer to class. Although endowed with stamina on the distaff side, being by Mastercraftsman, Kingston Hill is not certain to stay the all-important extra two furlongs. On the face of it, plenty with more cut and dried chances have failed. For those prepared to take the Derby runner-up on, there is no shortage of contenders. Snow Sky and Romsdal look the two with the most solid credentials, but this trip will suit Hartnell and possibly Scotland, who could be the value alternative in what looks like a puzzle of Houdini proportions.

4.25: Mount Logan could be another winner for the Luca Cumani stable – a yard that has enjoyed a fruitful autumn and has not stopped churning out the winners just yet.

DONCASTER FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 12th:

1.40: With Molecomb winner Cotai Glory, Gimcrack third Ahlan Emarati and Irish hotpot Ainippe in attendance, the Group 2 Flying Childers looks like a race that will take a deal of winning.

2.10: Sir Walter Scott ran as if finding this trip too far last time, but his shrewd trainer perseveres so that may not be an accurate reflection. Retirement Plan, Adventure Seeker and Stomachion all have chances in a very tough to solve event.

2.40: Back to her best form over an inadequate trip last time, and stepped up to a more suitable distance, Estimate’s credentials are inescapable now. Times Up has something to find with the royal filly and the other serious candidate, Whiplash Willie, needs softer ground. This is Estimate’s race to lose.

3.15: Outpaced over six at Ascot, Muraaqaba took the Sweet Solera in style at Newmarket and a further hike to a mile should present no problem for her. At the same sort of price as Estimate, her winning claims here are not quite so cut and dry. Agnes Stewart looks a serious danger, whilst, although unlikely winners, Banzari and Shagah cannot be entirely ruled out.

3.45: Danzeno completes a hat-trick of comparatively short-priced contenders on the card here. Obviously he has every chance without looking a tempting betting proposition.

4.25: White Lake created an impression on debut at York; however, as yet the race he won has failed to receive a solid endorsement – although Erik The Red may redress that in the maiden this afternoon. As it stands, Nafaqa poses a strong threat and it looks like a case of seeing whether what we saw at York was an accurate reflection of White Lake’s ability.

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 11th:

After a somewhat tepid start to this meeting yesterday, Doncaster hits stride today.

Despite facing stiffer opposition than she has so far encountered, Bragging will be high on most lists in the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes at 2.10. Having made giant strides in handicaps at Newmarket and York she looks like a filly capable of making the transition to this company and, with apparently no ground bias and an electric turn of foot that has meant she has won her last two races without turning a hair, she is hard to get away from. Penalised J Wonder is the most obvious threat without being a filly to send shivers down the spine of Bragging’s supporters. One-time Guineas hope Amazing Maria needs to initiate a major recovery if she is to figure, as does the somewhat wayward and reluctant Kiyoshi, who is making a meal of returning to winning ways. Joyeuse and Muteela look sure to perform with credit but look short of the required standard, whilst Token Of Love remains in fine form but in all probability today’s race will take more winning than anything she has so far tackled. On the sort of upward curve that wins races at this time of year, although unproven in this company, Bragging seems the logical pick without necessarily looking like a bet.

2.40: Fillies again take centre stage here in the Park Hill, where the far from straightforward Seal Of Approval – who may have won this last year but for clipping heels – has to be considered. However, despite teasing her supporters this season, she has not been entirely convincing, looking a reluctant participant on at least two occasions and only finishing her races under sufferance. With dangers aplenty lurking, she is overlooked. A line through Sultanina (it may not be that solid but is all we have to go on) gives Silk Sari the beating of Venus De Milo, meaning she and the consistent Arabian Comet may be the two to latch on to. Narrowly beaten at Goodwood and York on her last two runs, this return to 1m 6f will suit Arabian Comet, who should run her race and looks a solid each-way selection. In the belief she can raise her game once more, Silk Sari, another likely to benefit from this extended trip and a filly with a touch of class, is narrowly preferred for win purposes. Melrose Abbey will be a better prospect later in the season when the ground turns soft.

3.15: The late defection of Valley Of Fire robs many of us with the day’s best opportunity in this valuable sales race that may now be claimed by Fox Trotter, whose chance is undeniable if he is able to repeat his fourth in the Richmond to Ivawood. Winner aside, the placings read well, but Fox Trotter’s absence since late in July sounds a note of caution, particularly as he represents a yard that tends to fly high with their inmates once they have hit the track on debut.

3.45: Elhamme sets the standard here. He probably has most to fear from the unexposed Long Cross and the progressive The Corsican.

5.00: King Of Normandy, Commemorative and Erik The Red (may have been flattered at York) all showed enough on debut to make this a potentially hard race for those having their first experiences. Sociopath and Secateur both line up with reputations, although others make appeal on paper in a race likely to look less cloudy once betting starts in earnest.

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 6th:

HAYDOCK:

2.40: Unlucky at Goodwood last time, in that he was too far adrift of the leaders in a slowly run race, Captain Cat, a hold-up horse that should be suited by the strong pace set by Balty Boys, gets his chance to atone.

3.15: Whatever the fate of Captain Cat in the opener, the Charlton stable appear to have excellent prospects with Quest For More in this Class 2 handicap. A strong finisher when second to Edge Of Sanity at the Ebor meeting, he has the look of a horse about to peak and can exploit the 13lbs he receives from likely favourite Havana Cooler. Current odds suggest he is a value alternative.

3.50: The juggernaut that is Sole Power threatens to continue rolling in the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup. Against plenty of the usual suspects, those anxious to oppose him will presumably in part be banking on six furlongs being his undoing. However, he does have excellent form at the trip and such supposed negativity could be tenuous against such a determined competitor. We have yet to see the best of the progressive Music Master, who may provide the biggest danger; whilst, although respected back to a more realistic distance, the intriguing Cougar Mountain has yet to prove he is quite in this league.

4.25: Now 6lbs better in with Felix Leiter for just under two lengths when denied a clear run at York, Roossey is taken to exact revenge. The winner battled on in terrific style that day, especially as it was clear he was uncomfortable on the quick surface. But Roossey is the one that appeals at today’s revised weights.

KEMPTON:

2.20: In all its various guises, Godolphin has developed into a bête noire for most punters. Only stubbornness and an endless and total disregard for money, means this outfit is still in business in its present form. Racing is a specialised pursuit; the notion that one man can buy, train, place and all but ride his horses, smacks of ultimate conceit. Now and then, despite all the brickbats thrown their way, one or two inmates actually survive the ordeal. Responsible for three out of the seven runners in the September Stakes, last year’s winner, the penalised Prince Bishop carries the first colours – not always the best guide as to what to expect. Based on his clear bias for an artificial surface and a couple of near-misses at the Dubai Carnival this year when drawn out towards the road to Abu Dhabi, an on song Cat O’Mountain, who had Prince Bishop behind him in the World Cup, should hold sway against his rivals in blue, providing his far from convincing trainer has prepared him correctly. Cat O’Mountain runs like a horse that should stay this trip (although that is not certain). If he does his killer turn of foot on this surface should be decisive.

From this perspective Ascot looks a bit like the inside of one of those Las Vegas casinos, where the house ensures there are no clocks or similar distractions to dissuade those that feel lucky from reaching for their chips. Even the stakes races look tricky.

Having been raised only 2lbs for his nursery win last time Squats is given another chance by the handicapper at 4.05. The minimum trip seems to suit him well and he should again be too good for Profitable on these altered terms.

Lightly raced and a filly with the scope for improvement, Fray, second to the well-regarded Water Hole last time, looks the one to beat in the 4.40.

With Quest For More and Roossey looking interesting betting propositions, Haydock looks the track to concentrate on.