Johns going to Plumpton today. Here’s his paddock inspection shortlist. NB caution today, ground is bad, bets to a minimum, Bob
Plumpton
12.10
Sadma – Didn’t jump well enough last time and stamina looked an issue. This
ground is not ideal.
1.15
Call The Cops – Fair type who has been working well, fancied.
3.30
Our Phylli Vera – Improved since seasonal reappearance and in very good form, fancied.
Tom Sang – Improving all the time and comes here in very good form, big chance.
Johns going to Kempton tonight here’s his pre paddock inspection notes
Kempton
3.40
Quiet Warrior – Improving prospect and working well, fancied
Borough Belle – Type to do better next season.
Why Not Now – Works well at home but likely to want further than this.
4.40
Anglo Irish – Better for the run today, best watched
Hoist The Colours – Okay sort, ew chance
Timeless War – Nice debutant who does work well at home, chance
AL BUSAYYIR – Better than he has shown to date, expected.
5.10
Attenzione – Best watched for now.
The Third Man – Knows it’s job and been found a weak maiden. Fancied.
5.40
Irish Tears – has a breathing issue but works okay, and this looks a moderate contest.
6.40
Spifer – Not the most genuine but this is an open race and ew claims at this level.
John’s going to Wincanton today, here’s his paddock inspection shortlist
12.40
Prasina Rusata – Blew up last time, improved for run, ew chance
River Dancing – Very moderate
Shareni – Schooled okay over hurdles, small chance
STAND TO REASON – Useful off flat, has schooled very well, expected to win here.
Party Girls – Not fancied.
1.10
Dreams And Songs – Ew chance in weak race
MAYFAIR MUSIC – Good effort in strong race last time, big improvement since, fancied
Summertime Lady – Wants further than this,
Vilja – Only ordinary and wants a trip.
Fairytale Theatre – Wont want any rain, small chance.
1.40
Lumpys Gold – Should have won last time and off good mark, fancied.
Kartanan – Very quirky, place chance at best.
2.10
Allthekingshorses – Jumping improved of late, found bad race, fancied
Buck’s Bond – Small chance off okay mark.
Inside Dealer – Not out of this if given easy lead.
2.40
Decoy – Very moderate, not today
Jumps Road – Needs to come down a few lbs.
McVicar – Improving with each run, ew chance
Kilrye – Very small chance n open race
3.10
Bincombe – Not fancied
3.40
Ryde By Knight – If he runs he’ll go close, but wasn’t 100% yesterday.
Note:
Saturday Nov 30th
John’s moving house this weekend so won’t be posting for a few days.
He asks me to pass on his apologies
All the best
Bob
Here’s Johns Notes one of my handicappers. A quick note about his “code”
CAPITALS BOLD – Strongest fancy
Bold – Fancied
Ordinary Text – one to note. Possible bets but subject to paddock inspection and market check of other runners
John’s off to Newbury today so here’s his pre paddock inspection betting notes
12.30
Activial – Nice prospect, held in high regard, expected to go very close today.
Calipto – Nice type, improved since his hurdling debut and working well, chance
Dawalan – Only ordinary sort, best watched today
1.30
Pateese – In good form and working well, ew claims
Arthurian Legend – Much better than last run, will love ground, ew claims
Amigo – Not fancied today
Seventh Sign – Well handicapped, chance
Aiteen Thirtythree – Better for last run, this is a confidence run
Western Warhouse – Very well handicapped and in good form, fancied.
Virginia Ash – Not fancied.
2.05
Up To Something – Consistent type in good form, chance
WONDERFUL CHARM – Held in very high regard, expected
Tanerko Emery – In good form and improved since latest start, nice chasing prospect
2.40
Grandioso – Working well, ew chance
Hazy Tom – Not fancied
Quinz – Needs to come down in weights
Cedre Bleu – Working well, ew chance
Theatrical Star – Well treated and in good frm, ew claims
3.15
Midnight Cataria – No more than a small chance today
Fabrika – Held in the highest regard, schooled impressively, fancied
Tagrita – Will want fences and 3m in time but okay chance today
3.45
Fascino Rustico – Okay type but had problems
In fairness – Okay sort, small place chance
SIGN OF A VICTORY – Held in the highest regard, expected
Tiqris – nice sort working well, ew
Vazaro Delafayette – Will do better over fences, small chance
Wilde Blue Yonder – Has schooled well at home, ew chance
John’s going to Newbury today here’s his pre racing betting notes prior to paddock inspection
Newbury Racing Thursday 28th Nov
12.25
VOLNAY DE THAIX – Useful type, impressed last time and continues to impress at home, expected.
12.55
Polisky – Solid effort last weekend, remains in good form, chance
Milarrow – Blew up badly last time, has improved since and solid ew chance
1.30
Broomfield – Nice sort who blew up last time, ew chance
Jojabean – Much stronger race than he won last time, small chance at best
Union Du Chenet – Working well and well handicapped, solid ew chance
Bold Cuffs – Likely to struggle at this level
2.05
Third Intention – In good form and not disgraced last time, solid chance
Just A par – Very one paced type. chance
2.40
Grandads Horse – Working well, off decent mark, fancied
Easter Day – Ordinary, badly handicapped
3.15
Puffin Billy – back to his best and working well, fancied
Chatterbox – Held in some regard, will love ground, fancied
Irish Saint – Needs the run today but okay prospect.
3.45
Fred Le Macon – Only okay type, up against it here
MAESTRO ROYAL – Very smart newcomer who has been impressing at home, expected.
Thomas Brown – Disappointed when fancied last time, better than that run, chance.
Johns going to Southwell today, these are his only pre race notes
1.10
RESOLUTE – Runner up in two stronger maiden’s than this and working nicely at home, should be too good for these today.
2.10
Gwael – Steadily progressing, should be capable of a decent run but no good thing.
Monday 25th
John’s early Betting notes for Kempton
Kempton Park
12.30
WEST WIZARD – Very smart hurdling debutante who is expected to win this.
Sgt Reckless is a good forecast bet and has improved since last run.
1.00
BEARS AFFAIR Has impressed over fences at home and should be too good for these.
1.30
Highland Retreat – Useful type, held in some regard, fancied.
Ma Filleule – Has her quirks but well weighted and place chance.
2.05
Jump City – In good form and likes it here, chance
PERSIAN SNOW – Ready to win and in great form at home, big chance.
Giorgio Quercus – not that well handicapped at present, watching brief.
2.40
Woodford Country – Not showing enough to take this
Time For Spring – Better expected in headgear, chance
Barton Stacey – Ew claims.
3.10
ROYAL BOY – Bypassed much stronger race last week for this and held in very high regard, big chance
Turn Over Sivola – Goes okay but sloppy jumper and more needed at this level.
3.40
Ranjaan – Very quirky not for me.
Who’s Cross – Moderate but in good form.
Fourth Estate – Goes well at hoe, has had problems but ew chance all the same.
Pippa Greene – Better than last time, not out of this, ew
John’s going to Haydock today so here’s his early betting notes
Haydock
12.50
Talkonthestreet – Had breathing problems last season but done impressively well for a breathing operation in the summer and working very well. Won’t be far away.
Fighter Jet – One paced type who is in good form but possibly on the high side in the handicap now. Small ew claims.
1.20
Dan Breen – Chance on his best form but rather disappointing last time out and has his quirks. Not out of it.
Fago – Disappointed at Exeter but in good form at present and better than he showed that day. Best in of these at the weights and fancied to go close.
1.55
PURPLE BAY – Held in high regard and working well. Won nicely last time and expected to take this before possibly heading to Newbury next weekend.
Oscar Hoof – Solid sort who is in good form. Bit more needed but not totally out of it.
2.30
BLACK THUNDER – Very classy type who is a natural over fences and won well last time. Has been impressing at home andexpected to go in again.
3.05
Spirit Of Shankly – Nice sort who remains in good form and is fancied to run another sound race.
Unknown Legend – Only ordinary sort who will improve for the run today.
Varom – Disappointing on British debut but not disgraced behind a classy sort on first run this season . Working very well at home and expected to go close.
3.40
Battle Born – Nice sort who has good Points form and comes here in very good form, big chance.
Saturday Nov 2
Posted 12.15
Wetherby Tips
12.45
MENDIP EXPRESS – Held in very high regard and extremely useful Pointer. Has looked the part on the gallops and schooled very well. Will be seriously hard to beat.
1.15
GONE TOO FAR – Useful prospect and good bumper form, only finding the smart Oscar Rock too good on debut before bloodless win. Has schooled smartly at home and expected to win on hurdles debut.
Varom – Okay prospect who has done well at home, Tough task on hurdles debut but ground no issues, ew chance.
NEWMARKET TIPS
2.55
NABUCCO – Very highly regarded and flying at home. Improving all the time and relishes conditions, held in high regard and will be seriously hard to beat today.
Bana Wu – Okay sort but needs to step up on best form to beat the Gosden horse here
4.00
ANNINA – Very highly regarded and working extremely well at home, needed two runs so far but now off good mark. Impressing on gallops and will love the ground, big chance.
Santa Anita Tips
7.43
Dank – In good form, setting good times around track this week. Won’t be far away.
10.22
The Fugue – Should go very close. Ground perfect and plenty of pace will help, big chance.
Good Luck
Sat 25th October. Sorry, there’s no blog today, John’s had a bit of an accident riding out, nothing serious. but didnt get back to his place in time to write it up
CHAMPIONS DAY – TELEVISED BLOG
A cracking Saturday which nearly brings the Turf Season to a close and we have five races featured on TV today.
1.45 Ascot
Very few front runners in this suggests that Harris Tweed could get an easy lead up front here and if he does he could be very hard to peg back. As shown in two races this season at Goodwood he has been very hard to peg back and on ground he loves he is definitely of interest over a trip expected to suit.
Ahzeemah likes it around here as well and comes here expected to go close as well and is another to consider in an open race.
Times Up & Biographer are closely matched on their Doncaster runs and the drop back in trip is likely to suit the latter better.
However the Ascot Gold Cup form of ESTIMATE is the best on offer and even over this shorter trip she looks to have solid claims. It’s her first run since her win at the Royal Meeting and she should prove very hard to beat here with plenty going for her.
Harris Tweed can give her most to think about.
Result
Estimate unpl
Harris Tweed 2nd 8/1
2.20 Ascot
Improving sorts Balmont Mast (won last week), Viztoria (possibly better over 7f) and Heaven’s Guest (first run out of handicap company) are interesting in this open race but each need to step up at least 10lb to win this.
Slade Power is another with claims whilst L’Abbaye winner Maarek is definitely in love with the ground he has today and the stiff track really suits here. He comes here in top form and should go close again.
But for me JACK DEXTER is improving all the time and he looked to step up again when 3rd in the Ayr Gold Cup and really flew home from an unpromising draw.
Well drawn today and in good form, he looks set to improve again and for me over 6f he might be capable of better than Maarek and therefore at around 5/1 he is a solid ew proposition.
Result
Slade Power 1st 7/1
Jack Dexter 2nd 5/1 (Neck)
Viztoria 3rd 5/1
2.55 Ascot
This is a cracking fillies event and the news on the Newmarket gallop is that Hot Snap has really come on lately and working very well. She is still unexposed over this trip and stayed on very well last time. There could be more to come and the way she is working at home, she looks worth an ew.
Oaks winner Talent has to enter calcualtions on her Leger 2nd and Oaks Win but there could be a lack of pace here and therefore she could prove vulnerable.
Dalkala is definitely one who could take advantage and her performance when seeing off Tasaday last time is very solid and for me looks another solid ew.
I don’t rate Waila, and I think she was a fortunate winner last time and she certainly doesn’t work to this level at home, I’m keen to oppose her.
The other with value is The Lark who although behind Talent at Epsom has undoubtedly improved this season and her Doncaster win was most impressive and has been galloping very well at home lately. She will be up there so could get first run on the field here which will give her a big advantage and like Dalkala I like her ew, and it’s hard to split them.
Result
The Lark … non runner
Waila … opposed and beaten
Dalkala … unpl
Talent … 3rd 7/2
3.30 Ascot
One of the days feature and for me I’m not sure why Brian Ellison has supplemented Top Notch Tonto as a this level it is an ask too much and he needs to finish 3rd to recoup his 70k which I’m not sure he will. However taking a 70k gamble on him running well into 4th/5th to increase the horses value by more than 70k is a gamble I could understand but he is not a betting proposition.
Gordon Lord Byron has stamina issues to prove over this trip for me so he is discounted, whilst Elusive Kate for me is better on a sounder surface.
At big prices do not rule out Kingsbarns. He wouldn’t be the first O’Brien horse to bomb out badly after a break then bounce back to win or go well the next time and last season’s form is very impressive.
Olympic Glory in headgear is interesting as he is clearly quirky whilst the French fancy the chances of Maxios who was just in front of the former named last time.
Soft Falling Rain impressed last time and is another to consider whilst the ground has to be a worry given he has mainly only ever raced on fast ground.
That said they all need to go some to see off DAWN APPROACHwho didn’t give his best in Deauville and wasn’t suited how the race panned out . he is better than that and bacjk to his Ascot and Goodwood form, for me he will be very hard to beat and is the safest option. Kingsbarns as a 16/1 saver is also worth a look.
Result
Olympic Glory 1st 11/2
Kinsbarns 3rd 14/1
4,05 Ascot
The Champion Stakes itself and having been way below par all season Cirrus Des Aigles has really bounced back in his last two races and will love the ground and he distanced any doubts he was past his best with a bloodless display at the L’Arc meeting. Bitterly disappointing here in June, he shouldn’t be written off lightly and remains one not to lay but maybe not the best value to bet at 11/10.
Ruler Of The World for me cant win and he wasn’t good enough in the L’Arc and won a very poor derby whilst Mukhadram should be there abouts and could get it easy up front, he is definitely one to consider.
Hillstar possibly wants further but will be running on so he has a place chance but for me the ew bet to nothing is FARHH . Godolphin’s runner has form over 10f and was brilliant in the Lockinge this year, this trip looks ideal and he has been burning up the Snailwell gallops in
Newmarket lately. Everything points to a big run today and I think he is a knocking ew and it would not surprise me to see him beat the French horse.
Result
Farhh Won 7/2 -> 5/2
Good luck
Update Saturday evening
BANKER BET, SEEK AGAIN WON
WAR COMMAND WON
The suggested Lay on 2/1 Fav GREAT WHITE EAGLE was successful
Saturday Blog 12th October.
8 races live on Tv today and here’s our quick guide to the first 6.
1.50 York
Probably the strongest bet of the date today for me and SEEK AGAIN is a banker win and place bet today. His close up 5th in the Cambridgeshire two weeks ago looks very solid with the 4th home Graphic winning well yesterday. Seek Again was outpaced before staying on strongly late on and the return to 10f will really suit this lightly raced colt.
The in form Thouwra could be still open to improvement whilst it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see King George River improve on his poor Cambridgeshire display back in a smaller field. However Seek Again remains progressive and is a cracking ew option.
2.05 Newmarket
Much will depend on how much last months poor run has taken out of the progressive Darwin who is sure to be happier back at 7f, but LOCKWOOD has looked in great form this season and showed a real battling attitude when going down narrowly last time when clear of the field. Two decent wins prior to that he has the beating of most of this field and again is respected ew.
2.20 York
Excellent Result could be interesting under all the weight allowances today and comes here in good form but FIRST MOHICAN is definitely more interesting back on a sound surface having not got home in the ground at Ayr last time. His best effort this season came over course and distance and back in a race where he has some of the best form he has a solid ew chance.
2.35 Newmarket
I think the key to this is Great White Eagle. He won easily in testing ground on his debut and despite winning well last time he beat little and took a long time to get going and for me he is crying out for 7f. This 6f trip I feel will just find him out for pace when it matters and with Astaire , Brown Sugar, Surdiman and Supplicant all pacey sorts I could see him finding it all too tough before staying on well. Personally I would be laying Great White Eagle. I was impressed with SUPPLICANT and the way he stretched away at the end of the Mill Reef and the rain falling is a bonus, a cracking ew price today and looks value to me today. Hot Streak who bolted up in the Cornwallis last time also looks solid ew value.
2.55 York
A cracking sprint and I really like OUTER SPACE who despite being no match for Hot Streak in the Cornwallis looks progressive. I think of all the field, he has the most speed to be suited by 5f and has the beating of Brave Boy & Rufford for my liking. Mushir is an interesting newcomer and won very well at Kempton on debut and could be open to more improvement, but Outer Space could get a boost of form in the Middle Park at 2.35 with Hot Streak and for me is a solid option.
3.10 Newmarket
A small field but it looks between the classy Ascot winner WAR COMMAND and Outstrip. There can be no doubt that Outstrip was impressive at Doncaster and is going the right way but War Command has looked better than ever over the 7f and today rates a strong bet. I would back him for the Guineas before today.
Good Luck
Saturday Double
The first of our two for Saturday comes in the 4.25 at Ascot and NARGYS can give Luca Cumani another big Saturday winner.
Best suited by these conditions she has been working really well at home and this looks a lot easier than the race she won at Doncaster.
A very good work horse she looks sure to follow up that win. 2pts win
The 4.45 at Newmarket see’s me looking at WINNING EXPRESS.
Not disgraced behind the classy Nargy’s at Doncaster she looks as if a drop to 6f is exactly what she needs and her run in the Cheveley Park here last season was a cracking effort.
She is 9/2 and a cracking ew bet. 3pts ew.
Good Luck
September 28th
Saturday Blog
A cracking Saturday’s racing and it might be hard to match the achievements of a 40/1 winner last Saturday !
Today’s betting feature is the Cambridgeshire at 3.50 but we do have some other action on the box.
Paul Cole has openly said he has the best bunch of 2yo’s he’s had in a long time and BERKSHIRE can get the day off to a flyer in the 2.00 . He takes on Somewhat of Mark Johnston’s and Kingfisher today but the Chesham winner has been working seriously well at home lately and comes here after a break and connections believe he will take all the beating today. 2pts win.
The 2.35 is very open but I feel there is each way value to be had with Lady Cecil trained Joyeuse. She looked to get tired late on at Salisbury last time and I think the 2nd was flattered to get as close as she did. That horse re-opposes today but the prices mean Joyeuse is overpriced.
Her Ascot run was a cracking display and she comes here in very good form. She galloped well on Saturday morning and the yard think at 6/1 she is worth a 1pt ew bet.
SKY LANTERN is my banker of the day in the 3.10 and she should have won at Newmarket earlier in the season when hampered by Elusive Kate and her run at Goodwood is best forgotten as she didn’t get the trip after a troubled passage.
With a clear run today she can revert the Falmouth form and already holds Just The Judge twice this season. Integral is an improver but Sky Lantern is expected to return to her best today and at around 6/4 she is value to a 4pt win bet.
The Cambridgeshire is open at 3.50 and I like 5 in this, and I’m advising 1pt ew on the Selection, and 0.5pts ew on the remainder.
Fury can go well at big odds and having been midfield last season but not beaten too far he has had a fresher campaign this season and actually comes here in very smart form. He is 8lb lower as a result and just about see’s this trip out. He is one of Three Haggas horses I like in the race and I think he’ll go well.
King George River ran well last time and has the excellent Rob Tart on today taking off 3lb. Not disgraced in group company this return to handicaps will suit and he will be powering home late, I think he’ll take a hand.
Graphic is another of the Haggas horses who has found his feet of late and is suited by the hurley burley of big handicaps. He is well drawn here and comes here on the back of improved efforts and shouldn’t be discounted easy.
Top Notch Tonto is another who would have preferred some more cut but under his penalty he could be very well in having won well in listed company last time. He is improving all the time and really should be thereabouts.
However the one for me is one I’ve followed all year and I think NINE REALMS can take this for William Haggas.
Thought one time a group prospect he was given a poor ride on his return before making all to win well at Ascot. Another poor show last time he was too free in easy ground but the return to 9f on a galloping track and a sound surface is what he needs.
At the prices around 20/1 he is overpriced and expected to see him dropped in early and produced late under Liam Jones who rides him out at home. He is definitely well handicapped and is great value to lead the Haggas team home in their quest for glory. He is the 1pt ew selection, with 0.5pts ew savers on the others.
Good Luck
Saturday 21st
Good Afternoon
A fantastic day’s racing ahead with the feature Ayr Gold & Ayr Silver Cups the highlights this afternoon;
Ayr Silver Cup (2.40)
The key to yesterday’s Bronze Cup was a huge benefit to those horses drawn high and I forecast much of the same here today. If you are betting in this race today make sure you use Bet365, SkyBet or Betfred, they are paying 1-2-3-4-5 1/4 odds, whilst most of the other firms are only 1-2-3-4.
Take Cover is one of four I like in this race and he comes here in super form, a bold front running effort on faster ground at Goodwood he has form in the past on a slower surface and narrowly denied at Goodwood, he has been rested for this race. Well drawn today he comes here in terrific form and off what looks a competitive mark. It’s hard to make all here but he could go close to doing so.
Another I would want on our side is Picture Dealer. I can forgive him a poor run last time and the time previous at Goodwood things never went right for him. 6f is ideal and in stall 15 he should tag onto the pacey side of highly drawn horses. He comes here working well at home and his mark isn’t too bad, I can see him flashing home into the mix.
Top weight Ancient Cross is a sneaky one at big odds as well. He flew home in the Portland and is at his best with cut in the ground and the return to 6f would suit. I fancied him at long odds for the Gold Cup but he missed the cut by one and in typical fashion there is now a non runner in the feature. Very well drawn he should get a really good take into the race and at big odds he is value.
The final one of interest in an open contest is also a big price and Polski Max is closely matched with a few of these from form earlier in the season and he has slipped back to a competitive mark. He loves this ground and whilst he is not drawn great, I think he can run a decent race.
I advise 0.5pts EW on all four selections.
Ayr Gold Cup (3.50)
The Gold Cup is a cracking race but is very tough. Jack Dexter is respected back on ground he loves but I just think it’s a tough task under this weight.
Tropics has been in fine form this season and for me he is weight nicely to go close here. I think he is a group horse in the making and think he’ll go very close today. He is well drawn.
Hoof It is another who has just started to come back to form and he remains off 107 despite being raised to 109 after his 3rd in the Sprint Cup. Best with cut in the ground and in great form, he won’t be far away.
At a big price Humidor has dropped to a fair mark and comes here on the back of a fair run last time. He is probably better on a sounder surface but he is not one I would discount easy and at 40/1 there is value about him.
Duke Of Firenze is another who will love the ground and working very well at home and step up to 6f today is going to suit. Found out in Group Company the last twice, back into handicaps this looks ideal and I think she is very overpriced.
My final one to include is Red Dubawi who was once a class act and has come down to a decent mark now and this 6f on easy ground really suits. I think this has been trained for the race and has a very solid attitude. I really fancy this one from the high draws and is well treated. Big chance !
Again I advise 0.5pts Ew on all five selections.
Hope we’re in the money in the big races
Good Luck
Saturday Sept 14th
TV Racing Tips
Good Morning:
Three cracking bets today on the TV races.
In the 2.05 at Doncaster look no further than THE GREAT GATSBY . The Mastercraftsman colt was still very green behind Treaty Of Paris last time and has come on no end since Working really well. The yard hold him in high regard and the recent rain has improved his chances . He will improve past the Henry Candy horse today and prove hard to beat. 4pts win.
Soft ground horses are key and GREGORIAN is value Ew in the 3.15. He won nicely last time and his best form as shown at Epsom is good enough here. He caught the eye on the Cambridge Road Polytrack last weekend and at 9/2 is a 1pt Ew bet.
Our final bet is in the 3.50 and is LIBERTARIAN and despite being in the Godolphin 3rd silks today he is the most strongly fancied of the trio. He has been trained for this race and his fast finishing 2nd in the Derby gives him a huge chance. He wants this ground and the Irish Derby run is best discounted . A cracking 7/1 bet he is advised at 2pts Ew
Good luck
Good morning
Sadly the post was struck yesterday twice with Masamah (2nd at 6/1) and Excellent Puck (2nd at 20/1 into 12/1).
Today’s is the trickiest of the four days of the meeting with just the one advice.
It comes in the 3.15 and personally I would advise joining an orderly queue in Stan James and getting on THE LARK in the 3.15 at 15/8.
Michael Bell’s filly was a cracking 3rd in the Oaks before things didn’t go her way in Italy last time. Steadily progressing all season she has been crying out for this step up in trip and even better she has the soft ground she needs to be seen to her best.
Her work at home lately has also been most impressive and this actually looks a weak renewal of the race.
There also looks some pace in the race that will definitely suit, but it really does look a hard race to find anything with the form to beat The Lark.
I can’t see this beat and I’m having a decent punt.
Tomorrow’s racing offers more value across the card for us
Good Luck
Todays Racing Tips Blog from John, Wednesday Sept 11th
Good morning;
Day one of the St Leger festival starts today with four fantastic days of racing ahead.
A mix of conditions races and handicaps start the festival today and we have three good bets on the opening day card.
MASAMAH (3,00) should be a good starting point to the meeting and done well to finish as close as he has the last twice as he was poorly drawn and also been slowly away from those draws and not been able to lead as he likes to.
He drops in class today and is well drawn today and won’t mind if the forecasted rain arrives. He likes an aggressive ride which is expected today and whilst he looks held on form with Justineo on the Goodwood run, missing the break that day gave him no chance and with a good start today he can settle on the heels of the leader and unlike most of these the ground if it goes on the slow side of good won’t worry him. He is in good form and at 6/1 with bet365 there is ew value to be had with him.
The 3.35 had me puzzling about one horse, notably EXCELLENT PUCK of Jamie Osborne’s with recently retired yard assistant trainer Jimmy McCarthy in the saddle.
Having won off 70 over an extended mile at Wolverhampton he figured around 79, but the horse who was raised to 76, has fallen off the radar in his next three starts.
I spent months thinking why is this horse running so badly after an impressive win and whilst the win was on the all weather so I was thinking all weather touch, he blatantly hasn’t been put in races knowing despite travelling easy he wouldn’t see out longer trips. Very clever Mr Osborne !
However any plans of an AW coup fell on deaf ears as the handicapper has left him at 75 on the all weather but slipping to 70 gave him the opportunity to get in this race.
Dropped to 72 in May, I think connections knew that Jimmy was retiring recently (so much fitter than most of his rivals) and that they knew they could give this horse a break to take it off edge and having just been dropped 3lb in two runs, it was always likely that a poor run on return would see him dropped the 2lb to get into this race.
Connections were more clever, by running on the 25th Aug, they would have known on the 27th if they could get into the race but also knew they had up until the mark by the 3rd of Sep to get a run in this race and with that if he wasn’t dropped 2lb had another week to run him to make sure he got in here, clever again.
By Excellent Art ground will not pose any problems and the return to a galloping mile with a strong pace is what he wants.
This is a very carefully planned gamble with a horse we already know is capable of running to 80, running off 70 with a 5lb 3yo allowance, with a rider on who is the yards assistant trainer and he will know the horse inside out.
Proper good old fashioned gamble on the cards and weak on the exchanges overnight, I predict a push out. 16/1 ew with many firms today and four places, I’ve either read into this too much, or I’ve got the script bang on. Either way at 16/1 I’m willing to find out ! Ew advised.
We finish in the 4.45 where I feel CHILWORTH ICON is ready to resume winning ways.
I have been laying this horse for most of the season waiting for him to slip back into a 0-90 or 0-95 over 7f or over a mile, and like a kid who waits for Santa all season, my prayers are finally answered.
Sadly no it doesn’t mean I finally get the Woody and Buzz Lightyear I wanted all those years ago only to have my faith in Santa destroyed but the principle is the same of carefully dissecting a horses ability and working out it’s optimum grade and ability and making a note of it on a wish list.
This is the best way to find yourself good gambles and bets, but it requires being able to read horses and understand their abilities.
Something I believe I’m good at and if you are, you can find yourself a number of winners a year that most people will miss as they fall into the “this horse is regressive trap”. Anyway I’ve side tracked slightly.
Chilworth Icon started the season rated 103 running in group 3 company and was hampered at the start of the race but still ran well enough behind Havana Gold.
Running off the same mark behind the much improved Garswood next time again in listed handicap company he was just shaping like a horse in need of a drop in the ratings but more importantly he does not want fast ground.
On his next run dropped to 100, he nearly caused an upset when he ran 3rd in a strong 6f 0-100 handicap.
Rain fell on the morning of the race and he raced prominently where his stamina kicked in, he was a good 3rd but I’m far from convinced he was meant to as he raced handy and he normally likes to be dropped in.
Back up to 101 he ran on very quick ground at York and was never put into the race reverting back to 6f.
Returning to 100 next up at Newmarket he was dropped to 5f to make sure and made good late headway under a fair ride to finish a close up 5th on ground he relishes.
The handicapper not amused with this effort didn’t drop him so back to 6f it was back on rock hard ground and not put in the race.
Result out the back and the handicapper fell for it, dropped to 98.
Now the tester run came on his next start, Up to 7f at goodwood in a competitive contest. Having had a weak draw he was never put in the race and found a lot of trouble as if he wasn’t looking for the gaps he was finding. He stayed on well at the finish but was beat 9L and had I not spent the race watching him I probably wouldn’t have ever noticed him.
Off to Ascot off 95 with Cathy Gannon on over 6f, he was free early and didn’t get the cover he needed but ran a cracker beaten less than a length in 4th, but this was in 0-100 company and she looked at pains not to win on him.
The handicapper put him back to 96, so in true Channon plotting one up he had to disappoint last time.
Off to Newmarket up in class over 6f and racing on the worse part of the course, out in midfield but travelling easy he noticed a horse hanging and got on the outside of it to ensure was carried across the course. Don’t believe me, watch the replay the rider would never have got hampered until he made the move to make sure he was on the side of the horse that was hanging outwards. Finishing 6th and had he stayed straight would have been a great deal closer he got the drop to 95 again.
I think Channon knows he’s can’t slip any lower and is now dangerously well handicapper and they have nearly messed it up twice.
Well no fast ground today and back to the ideal 7f on a galloping track with plenty of pace in the contest and a big drop in class.
His last 6 runs have come in, 0-105, 0-100, 0-105, 0-105, 0-105 and 0-105 and now drops into 0-95 for the first time in ages and has the trip and ground ideal with more rain a bonus not a negative.
Well drawn back to 7f in gate 5, you can notice Martin Harley the stable jockey back on who only rode him when 3rd this season (best run) and has won on him twice before.
Now this is a competitive race but dropping in class taking on lesser horses he has plenty going for him and every box is ticked for me today, including value. He’s the best horse in the race yet is a staggering 25/1 with Bet365, 4 places. Cracking ew value and my best bet of the day.
Good Luck
Todays Racing Tips Blog from John, Saturday Sept 7th
8 Races on TV today and I’ve got three strong bets for you on the televised races.
We start with the 1.55 at Ascot and I would advise a decent ewon PYTHAGOREAN today.
Roger Charlton’s runner was too wide throughout last time at Goodwood and having been bumped and pushed deeper around the bends done well to finish in 6th.
Having previously been very unlucky at Goodwood and Sandown previously, he is still very well handicapped and he has been working like a listed horse for some time on the Beckhampton gallops. Steve Drowne rides today and at 6/1 ew with BET365 he looks cracking value.
The 2.20 at Kempton is our second advice and forget his poor previous efforts this season, MAIN SEQUENCE is back in flying form at home and comes here in seriously good nick.
David Lanigan gave the majority of his yard a break when they weren’t firing but have come back in great form and his gallop on Tuesday with Biographer was simply astounding.
He is definitely back to his best today and 6/1 ew with Stan James is value not to be missed.
My final and best bet of the day comes in the 2.40 at Haydock where MONTIRIDGE will give Richard Hannon another big Saturday winner.
Improving all the time this season he gallops fine at home and comes here very strongly fancied.
The ease in the ground is actually a bonus for him and with only Nine Realms and Tawhid looking any substance of a danger, Montiridge can continue his forward progress and give us a good value treble on the day. Even money Bet365 get on !!
Also from that Race expect a big effort from Nine Realms, he works like a group horse at home and done us a nice turn winning at Ascot last time.
He has ew value at 10/1 and should place but note whatever he does today he is being targeted for the Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket on the 28th September and he is currently 16/1 with Paddy Power and Stan James.
A good run today without winning would see his price shorten considerably and I would advise an ante post bet today. He is number 30 in the weights, so is guaranteed a run (34 max) and even if he won today would only get a 4lb penalty for the race. I don’t think he’ll be 16/1 for the race come 3pm today.
Good Luck
Thursday 5th Sept
Good Morning;
A couple of decent races today to get stuck into;
The feature is at 3.45 where for me JOYEUSE this sister of Frankellooks a cracking bet.
She was an impressive winner on debut at Lingfield before an improved effort to be 3rd at Royal Ascot.
Rested since she has been working very impressively at home and galloped 4L clear of an older companion over the weekend. The yard remain in good form at present and she is a very decent who is suited to this trip of 6f.
Her opposition is solid but in the likes of Lilbourne Lass she faces a horse who has been held at this grade and hasn’t convinced she truly see’s out the 6f, whilst the Godolphin runner Wedding Ring ran on well last time over 7f, suggesting she might be vulnerable to a horse such as Joyeuse with the turn of foot she possesses.
Dorothy B was fortunate to beat a slow starting Hoku at Nottingham but remains progressive nonetheless and should run her race. If improving she could place but again her form is far inferior to those with proven listed and group race form.
Both Alutiq and Lamar have won at lesser grades and run well on the balance of form, but both look vulnerable at this level.
Joyeuse looks the one not just with the best form but with the profile to be best suited by this stiff 6f and at 8/11 looks a solid bet to me.
I’m doubling her up as well with SEBASTIAN BEACH in the 2.10 and Richard Hannon’s runner was green as grass on debut but caught many eyes staying on powerfully. getting weight off a winner of a modest contest today, he looks open to a lot of improvement and his other two rivals look limited in ability.
The way he works at home suggests he can win this comfortably and again at 8/11 is priced right.
Cracking value as a double as well which will pay around 5/4
(Note from Bob. Slight maths error here from John, he’s a horseman not a maths boffin! It actually pays closer to 2/1. Good luck Bob)
Good Morning
It’s a tight day’s racing today but we’ve concentrated on the best meeting of the day for today’s blog.
Goodwood Racing today
2.20
Martian needed the run on debut but has improved since that run and goes well at home, he looks to have a solid chance today in a maiden that lacks a lot of strength in depth.
Advisory has improved since his first run and could be the principal danger, whilst Wizara is another who goes okay.
Nickel’s And Dimes is becoming a disappointing sort and is not one I like very much whilst Bold Citizen and Diamond Mine both will benefit with time.
2pts Win
2.55
This looks a match on paper with Richard Hannon’s Tea In Transvaal showing a lot of improvement lately at home and she was still green when running 2nd in a strong maiden last time, with further improvement she can improve past Tinga whose form is solid but was possibly flattered in an average group contest last time and probably falls some way short of a group horse.
She is definitely the biggest danger in what is a good maiden for the track.
Criteria is reportedly a forward sort who is expected to go well whilst, Arabian Comet is better than showed on debut and has been crying out for a mile, she’ll be doing her best work late on.
1pt Win
3.30
Al Baz has a bit to find at the weights and is definitely vulnerable here, whilst Rosso Corsa is interesting dropped markedly in class but whilst performing with credit lately is vulnerable to an improver and did run a shade flat on Saturday.
Lyn Valley is definitely interesting having come 2nd in a very strong maiden here before a good win last time in which the 2nd franked the form at Thirsk when beating a very decent field for that track. Lyn Valley has always been held in high regard by his connections and is definitely of interest.
Wahaab won well on his debut and was quietly fancied for the Coventry but came up short despite only being beat 7L. He has been working well since and is another to come here with solid claims, but for me Lyn Valley has shown enough in his last two starts to suggest he has the make up of a group performer and he can improve past the likes of Rosso Corsa today who appeals as a lay to me.
2pts Win
4.05
Deeds Not Words lost nothing in defeat here last time flashing home and this is markedly weaker. Mick Channon’s runner has been going well at home and is strongly fancied to collect today.
Expert is another who is consistent and has a solid chance, whilst Crowdmania can’t seriously be advised after two very disappointing efforts lately leave a serious question as to how genuine he is.
Memory Styx doesn’t know how to run a bad race and possibly had her stamina stretched last time over 7f but the drop back to 6f will definitely suit. The handicapper has been fair taking 2lb off her back and it’s a pity there isn’t 8 runners as she would have been an ideal ew. I do think she can complete a Channon forecast in the race though.
1pt RFC Deeds Not Words / Memory Styx
4.40
The feature at 4.40 is definitely a close encounter and there is very little between Broxbourne and Mawaqeet on their recent run when only a whisker separated them.
A lb better off Mawaqeet certainly has enough of a swing to get the upper hand today.
Mutual Regard would be very interesting if getting a soft lead which is possible and he has been working very well at home lately so expect a big run from him, whilst for me the value is with Waterclock ew who is steadily improving, stays well and will benefit from a decent pace today. He is 3lb better off with Argent Knight on their Newmarket run and I think he will get a more generous pace today to suit, and is value around 6/1.
1pt Ew
5.10
A tricky handicap, Mick Channon’s Tidentine is not without claims and goes okay at home, but one suspects 7f would perhaps suit a bit better nowadays.
However in a tight race with plenty of pace it’s hard to see the back to form Clear Praise not going close and a win two back, he backed that up with a solid 2nd at Epsom staying on well behind a ready winner but holding the remainder of the field. He goes well here and is value ew.
1pt Ew
5.40
I’ve not much interest in the last race as it’s very tricky but feel Swift Blade who is likely to have needed the run last time, is well handicapped on old form and giving weight to lesser rivals today may suit, he should be around the 5/1 mark and is sure to run his race with Adam Kirby booked and looks value ew as an ew bet to nothing.
No bet advised
Monday 2nd Sep
Good Morning
A few near hits on Saturday with York Glory that should have won, and a fine run from Handsome Man at Chester going close to good returns.
Today’s racing is weak with nothing advised but later on today we’ll send out a low down of what was going on, on the gallops in Newmarket over the weekend.
Good Luck
Good Morning;
Here is my (Johns) advice on the televised TV races.
2.05 Sandown
A strong 5f handicap to start proceedings and those drawn high face a disadvantage.
On day one of James Doyle the new Abdullah jockey I find it strange to see him not on Mission Approved in the opener.
His ride on top weight Pandar catches the eye and now dropped in class is interesting. Having once been rated 110, he represents the Robert Cowell yard who are now coming into form and well drawn in stall five, he likes to chase a strong pace which he is sure to get with the likes of Swendab, Joe Packet, Edge Closer and Fratellino in the race.
Personally those drawn high face a big disadvantage and with Swendab in 13, Mission Approved in 16, and the visored Dungannon in ten I feel there is value to look amongst the bigger prices drawn low who could get the race to suit.
Tidal’s Baby likes to come from off the pace and would have claims but from stall 2, he will need a lot of luck in running and he prefers more as a place chance than a winning one.
The same could be said about Joe Packet, he’ll track the pace but from stall 9 he might find himself a bit deep and that concerns me whilst O’Gorman is another who will be held up is the potential improver and could be well in here after impressing last time.
That said when all of these are looking for runs, Pandar should have been able to track the pace from a good draw and get first run on the field. On Betfair at present he is 16.5 in the win market and 3.85 in the place market with 4 places paid despite Artic Lynx and Taajub being non runners.
1pt Ew Advised @ 16.5 & 3.85 Pandar
2.20 Chester
This is an open looking race but Andrew Balding’s New Forest really caught the eye with an impressive win last time and is attractively well drawn in stall one here today.
Winning around another tight track in Warwick, the course will be no problem and he powered away to win by over 3L beating a couple of fair sorts in the process. Up 9b as a result, he has the very talented Oisin Murphy taking 7lb off today and getting plenty of weight and a strong pace to chase he is very interesting over this ideal trip. There is also plenty of pace for him to track and he should get first run on those that look to have claims but are held up. Free Zone is interesting back in a realistic grade but stall 12 is no help, whilst El Viento has slipped to a mark he really should be capable off.
For me New Forest is definitely a horse well ahead of the handicapper and in a race full of regressive types or ones who have reached the ceiling of their ability she is the only unexposed type and will take plenty of beating.
1pt Ew Advised @ 9/2 Stan James – New Forest
2.30 Beverley
Things haven’t dropped right for YORK GLORY (NAP) since winning the Wokingham but this stiff 5f is right up his street and he is very well drawn today.
He has the delight of a massive drop in class from his recent 8th in the Nunthorpe and best for him is that there is so many pace angles here for him today he should have no problem coming off a decent gallop.
Balista, Inxile, Masamah, Stepper Point, Tangerine Trees, Caladonia Lady, Bailey’s Jubilee and Pearl Sea will ensure this is a fast run race and with most of these glorified handicappers there are very few proven group horses in the field.
York Glory an impressive Wokingham winner, looks sure to be able to make the step up and with only Excellette and Minalisa (need to improve 7lb or so) in any real sort of form, things look set up for him and for me he is today’s banker . Max EW – Nap
5pts Ew Advised @ 5/1 Bet365 – YORK GLORY
(Note from Bob: 2nd beaten a neck! Gambled down to 11/4 Favourite. you dont get any closer han that! a small profit but very cruel!)
2.40 Sandown
can’t really advise a bet in this, but for all the right reason’s I hope Kingman puts up an impressive display. There was a lot to like about his win last time and he looks a promising colt going places and a potential Guineas prospect.
2.55 Chester
Es Que Love looks sure to lead up from a good draw and ensure there is a good pace and he might prove hard to catch, but things haven’t dropped right for Enrol lately and she ran on well in listed company last time in 4th and was going on at the finish. Definitely more to come today up to 7.5f and drawn in stall 6 she should be able to slot in nicely behind the pace. She has been working very well at home and she should be a solid ew option here.
Mabait from a high draw is interesting as well and has a talented 7lb claimer up today. I think he is another who can go close but will need plenty of luck if he drops in from his wide pitch.
Alejandro is another who is sure to run a good race over a trip he likes, but I can’t have Correspondent who despite liking the track has a tall task from stall 11 given he likes to race handy and he is up 7lb from his recent win and the ground is also drying out which isn’t ideal for him. For me the value lies with Enrol who is solid ew now over a more ideal trip.
1pt Ew Advised @ 6/1 Stan James – Enrol
3.15 Sandown
Again another race I won’t be advising a bet in but I’m looking forward to the clash between Integral who works like a group one horse on the Newmarket gallops and Zibelina who in 2 years I’ve not seen a better work horse at Godolphin’s and she laughs at everything on the home track.
Both look good fillies with massive futures and this looks a great battle today.
3.30 Chester
This is a tight handicap and the likes of Guarantee, Montaser and Tempest Fugit will have their fans but for known reaosns including quirks and absence, they aren’t safe options.
Star Lahib is an improver who is definitely respected, whilst Sun Central who missed the Ebor last week because of soft ground will be happier on a sound surface. Top weight won’t make it easy however.
Alta Lilea could be value ew as she could get a soft lead whilst the Prescott trained Savanna La Mar is well treated on the face of her last run and shapes as if this trip will suit and firmly holds Bite Of The Cherry on that form.
All that aside, Handsome Man is interesting taking on some fillies here and he is definitely well treated. He was 2nd in a good time on his second start this season and that race has worked out very well. He was made fav for the Northumberland Plate next time out but didn’t stay and was far too free early and hated what looked dead ground. Since then he has been dropped a lb by the handicapper making him only 2lb higher than when second to Highland Castle and his work at home has been most impressive.
On Tuesday he really impressed galloping all over a decent companion and he has been aimed at this for some time. He is very well handicapped and a strong pace which he’ll get here and this ideal trip and ground is everything he needs and whilst confidently fancied by the yard as well, he appeals to me in many ways as the solid ew in the race.
2pts Ew Advised @ 8/1 Bet365 – Handsome Man
3.50 Sandown
A tricky handicap to finish proceedings and it’s very open that many can win. I’m leaving it alone betting wise, but think those who use the exchanges should bet Sennockian Star to place. A model of consistency, he keeps defying the handicapper and the track will suit him and with a yard pace setter in the race he should track him through and run his race. It’s hard to see him out the first four and should be around even money to place.
Good Luck
“John”
(one of Bob Rothman private handicappers)
Horse Racing Tips Today, 30th August 2013
Good Morning
A tough but competitive days racing today and we have decided to go without a selection today as we feel there is little in the way of value.
We can pass on that in the 2.10 at Thirsk Hartwell is fancied ew around 10/1 but the Stoute horse will be hard to beat.
However we have a bumper edition tomorrow with 6 races featured and a bold double figures Nap we expect to win one of the big TV races, this will go out tonight at 9.30pm, where prices with Bet365 and Ladbrokes can be taken.
Good Luck
Cautionary Note from Bob.
I don’t want to put you off a big priced winner but I have doubts. “John” has put this up at a 1pt ew bet but my figures indicate the stables horses are NOT running 100% and if you do get involved I would reduce your stake to maybe 1/4 or 1/2 pt ew.
John is right it is value and you could probably bet it at 33/1 and then sell off your bet at a lower price to get a free bet (called arbing) You might like to consider that. Remember you don’t have to bet every horse you hear about. Sometimes it’s good to note the information and then just watch.
A juicy 33/1 tip today! Thurs 29th August
Good Morning
Sky Garden gave us a nice 13/8 winner yesterday backed into 11/8 but the chance of a strong profit on the day was wiped out when the Godolphin horse in the evening failed to score. End of the day was a minor profit.
A poor day’s racing today with only horse standing out to me; In the 5.40 at Lingfield I am keen ew on the chances of Overrider at 33/1 with Bet365 and I’m advising a 1pt ew stake.
Alastair Lidderdale’s runner is part owned by the gambler Bill Hinge and whilst his first two runs for the stable have been a shade disappointing he has now dropped from a mark of 78 to 67.
Having spent his 2yo career with Charlie Hills his form on the all weather reads 41435 and he was campaigned at 7f when not really staying the trip and shapes as if 6f will be more his cup of tea. Badly missing the break on both starts to date he likes to race forward and his first four runs on the all weather (one over 6f) is certainly good enough to give him a chance here.
Lightly raced he had foot problems when first joining the Lidderdale team and would have needed the first run back but the Newbury run is best forgot having missed the break a long way. Taking a big drop in class today into a 0-70 (highest rated 69), and returning to the all weather he really does catch the eye and is definitely the wrong price.
He is also very well drawn in stall 2 as well.
Having run to 70 and 71 in two handicaps on the all weather, the return to an artificial surface will suit today and he ran to those marks off 76 and 75, so now off 67 he is open to run parallel to 76/77 if he can return to that level of form, and if he does he’ll be very hard to beat.
At 33/1 with Bet365 there is definitely value to be had and worth a 1pt ew stake.
Good luck
A Couple of Horse Racing Tips Today, 28th August 2013
Good Morning
A place at 12/1 to start with but a poor show from Donny Rover yesterday. We have two horses to advise on today.
2pts Win Sky Garden @ 13/8
We start in the 2.40 at Catterick where I personally feel the 13/8 with Bet Victor that is currently available is great value.
She was a non stayer over longer trips than 6f and whilst it remains unknown whether she has trained on this season, the overall level of her form suggests that over 6f (led at Bath and ran well enough) she is capable of running to her mark.
Her main rivals today look Discussion To Follow who was well backed on debut at Redcar and whilst travelling well for a long way, didn’t find much under pressure and that form already looks pretty modest with the close 2nd Mishaal, beaten fair enough back in handicap company next time out.
Both Shillito and Red Red Wine are fair sorts but neither have actually regularly performed to their respected handicap marks of late but the fact they have marks in the 60s means that Sky Garden is a bigger price than she should be.
I don’t think that she is ungenuine, I just feel she is limited, but if she can run to 60 today, she will win and in my eyes she is more than capable of doing that.
3pts Win Madhiyah @ 11/10
The best bet of my day comes in the 7.10 at Kempton and I think MAHDIYAH will prove a good deal too good for the level of opposition which looks rather limited today.
Having ran very green and missed the break on debut, the daughter of Halling made good progress up the straight and was staying on the one pace, running green.
Beaten by a fair sort that day she had the remainder of a field similar to tonights rivals well behind her. She has done nothing but improve since and galloped impressively at the weekend. She is only 11/10 today, but that does look great value in a poor maiden and is a strong bet for me.
Good Luck
Two Horse Racing Tips for Today 27th August 2013
Morning Bob;
Well it’s back to work for most after the Bank Holiday weekend and we are not graced with the greatest of racing, but after 9 meetings yesterday that isn’t hardly a surprise.
Small fields also don’t help the value train into the station as well and those that did have the dead eight have conveniently for the bookmakers found a non runner amongst them !
The 5.15 at Ripon is where we start today and JAN SMUTS takes my eye with the talented 7lb claimer Kevin Stott riding him for the first time today. Having won impressively off 57 earlier in the season, in 3 of his last four races he has been given hopeless rides in amateur rider handicaps and although the form of his run 2 back at Catterick hasn’t worked out greatly, I think he ran a pleasing race when 5th to Tartan Jura. Given plenty to do off a slow gallop he was always lugging to his right, and for me he is a horse that is best right handed. Despite one win left handed, his other 2 are at right handed tracks and the majority of his best form comes right handed.
He is also best when having a decent pace to track and with Not Till Monday, Kayef and Generous Dream likely to set a decent gallop, with pressure from Naburn close up, this could be set up for Jan Smuts who having won off 51 and 57, has struggled off marks above 60 lately, but today returns to a mark of 60 and has a further 7lb off his back, with an apprentice who rides as good as any 5lb claimer, so is probably worth a good 2lb extra. Back on a sound surface will also help Wilf Storey’s runner and he is definitely at his best on a sound surface. Everything points in the direction of a good run today and at11/1 with Bet Victor & Sky Bet there is value to be had. 1pt Ew advised.
The 5.45 is the second of our bets today at Southwell and whilst he is thoroughly exposed in most people’s eyes I think you could do a lot worse than having a 2pt Ew bet on DONNY ROVER at 9/2 with Bet365, returning a minor profit if placed, you also have the attraction of best odds guaranteed and if he drifts your place return could be enhanced, that aside I think he has the credentials to win this.
Well backed on debut in the Brocklesby, he came from a long way back to finish midfield and was never quick enough for 5f next time out when a well bet favourite. His 3rd start he ran to 63, finishing 4th in a Doncaster maiden which has worked out very well. The 2nd, 3rd and 5th are all winners rated in the 70s whilst the winner Haikbidiac, was not disgraced in the Weatherby’s Super Sprint, before winning the DBS Sales race at York last week. Donny Rover was always outpaced that day over 5f and kept on as if 6f would be ideal. He also enjoys being dropped in, so next time at Haydock, he was rushed to chase a strong pace over 6f, and the horse just never really looked comfortable and I was happy to ignore that effort. Starting to look exposed, his next 4th at Ayr was played down by many but I wouldn’t be harsh to judge again.
The winner Queen Catrine is proven in listed / group company whilst, the 2nd Tanseeb rated 88, went down narrowly in a strong Goodwood nursey last time. 72 rated State Anthem of Mick Channon’s was 3rd, whilst 76 Straits Of Malacca (3rd in strong York nursery recently) was behind in 5th. 70 rated Mark Johnston runner Handwoven in 6th. That form no matter how you look at it, is very solid.
His 7f effort next time can easily be written off again, as he walked out the stalls and was never put in the race, although the race like most his maiden’s has worked out well. 7th next up at Chester, he again was slowly away and whilst he kept on a 3.25L 6th, he wasn’t making in roads in the final 100yrds so I’m not convinced he stayed. That race was won by Finn Class and the form has also been franked by those in behind. Last time out he paid the price over 7f at Muss, for again chasing a stupid pace and until the final furlong he actually looked the likely winner. He was not given a hard time once his chance had gone and is value to have finished close than the 5L he was beaten. The 2nd Gallic Breeze has subsequently won and Damaah caught the eye in 4th at Haydock with a better run , having been well behind Donny Rover in this maiden. Donny Rover has consistently run 60-67 in his races and his rating of 69 is actually a fair reflection of his form, but personally I think he is unlucky not to have won a maiden and this is by far the weakest maiden he has run in.
James Tate’s Black Vale looked very one paced when 9th on debut and was a very one paced 3rd over 7f here last time, not really suggesting 6f would be ideal. He has run to 41 and 53 on both starts and even on the avg of Donny Rover’s form, has 10lb to find with him and has to find a gear change from somewhere to be suited by 6f, that’s unlikely ! The odds on favourite Zal Zilhom is likely to prove to be the one to beat, but on debut was no match for Ocean Storm that day weakening in the final 1f and it’s interesting that the 2nd has been well beat on his only start since, and the winner was beaten next time out. That said Ocean Storm (albeit on debut) has already been beaten by Donny Rover and he gave the Kevin Ryan horse a 9L beating that day ! Zal Zilhom did improve next time when dropped back to 6f at Ripon, but again having traveled well in the lead, he looked vulnerable off the bridle and was seen off by Pensax Lad comfortably by 3/4L in the end and the winner was rated 71 going into the race, having consistently looked a 70 horse in 4 runs previous. That puts Zal Zilhom no better than 67/68 and he doesn’t strike me as the type to improve again.
The other three consist of a Mark Usher newcomer who is not known for debut 2yo winners, and the Roy Bowring runner showed little on debut. The same can be said of Alan McCabe’s Red Biba which has also shown nothing in 2 starts.
It looks a three horse contest on paper, but for me Donny Rover is best suited to 6f, and will get a nice pace set by Zal Zilhom to chase here, and knowing that rival is rather one paced and limited off the bridle (as shown in two starts) he will have enough to see him off, or if he does at least be second, as the Tate horse has 10lb to find, and has not shown in his 2 starts that he has enough pace against genuine 6f types and would prob be of more interest in an 8f nursery next time. Zal Zilhom who has been beaten by 2 70 rated prospects and comfortably in both starts faces today, another solid 70 horse, who has always run 62/70 in his races and is consistent enough to run well off 72 in a nursery and has been unfortunate to meet some decent types when running out places in strong maidens. This is by far his easiest task to date and at 9/2, screams cracking ew value in a race the worse I can see him coming is 2nd !!
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