June

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June

    • 21/06/13  – Leading Role  WON 15/8 -> 5/4
    • 20/06/13  – Remote Won 7/2 -> 9/4
    • 19/06/13  – Al Kazeem Won 11/4 -> 2/1
    • 19/06/13  – Ardingly (Late text bet ) DH 7/2 > 5/2
    • 18/06/13 –  Two Minds WON 14/1 -> 12/1** Best

    • 17/06/13 –  Couloir Extreme  WON 3/1 -> 7/4
    • 15/06/13 –  Morawij  WON 2/1 -> 10/11
    • 14/06/13  – Estiqaama WON 9/2
    • 12/06/13 – Hopes and Dreams WON 11/4 -> 5/2
    • 11/06/13 –  Ghanian WON 6/4 -> 5/4
    • 10/06/13 –  Factor Fifty WON 3/1 -> 2/1
    • 09/06/13 –  Excells Beauty WON 2/1
    • 08/06/13 – Professor WON 11/8
    • 03/06/13 – Court Pastoral WON 5/2

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June 25th

First year’s profits £300,551.00!

The New Profit Point Text Service completed its first year on 4th June  with  a staggering profit on the year of £300,551.00.

This was a magnificent performance and way,  way ahead of the targeted £100,000 profit in a year to £100 per point stakes.

Of course it’s got harder over the year both for the Service and individual clients as bookmakers have closed and limited clients accounts and now often slash the prices of the horses we bet as quickly as possible to try and defend their bank balances!.

Clients who joined last June have found many of their accounts have been limited. For example one senior trader who was betting £100 per point had to resort to using agents to get his bets on as all his bookies had cried “enough!”, and closed or massively limited his account.

The sad fact is that no matter how massive the bookmaker, even publicly quoted companies like Hills Corals Ladbrokes just haven’t the guts to stand up against anyone who is armed with Professional Information. There’s only one reason for that. they know from years and years of experience that they can’t win. They know the shrewd punters will clean them out so they limit their bets. Mug punters can have whatever they want.

Incidentally if you ever bump into anyone who tells you his bookie will lay him any bet he asks for (and he’s talking proper bets eg £100’s and £1000’s not tenners)  take him gently on one side and ask him if you can “borrow” his account for a while! it’s a great way of getting on!  But be careful, I’ve had more people than hot dinners tell me they can get bets on but when you put them to the acid test they invariably fail. Simply because they’ve never handled money for “live” horses before they just don’t understand the bookies will not lay them to large sums for more than a short period of time.

Ok let’s have a quick chat about May and June to date.

May 2009

May was the sort of month the bookies hope for. A series of bad results. Due in part to bad weather, awful rides by jockies and some very dodgy results which made some wonder if Mr Dopey had been active with his pills so badly did some short priced horses run!!

Yep it was an awful month. We lost 240 points or £24,000 at my normal stake of £100 per point. Ouch! Of course in the context of the year it wasn’t too bad as we were still up £296,451.00 at the end of the month. But whether you’re betting £1 a point and lose £240 (or more I suspect) it’s never nice to lose. You can imagine the looks I used to get coming home and being asked how I’d done on the month? When you tell friends you’ve lost a typical year’s salary in a month they look at you a bit odd! Of course the green and puzzled look in their eyes reappears  when you win a year’s salary in a month! It’s very amusing!

Punters are tougher than bookies!

Of course the sad fact is that as the punter we will experience longer losing runs than the bookmaker. that’s because bookmaker effectively bet odd on nearly all the time whereas we get odd to our money. So if you bet £100 at 3/1 the bookmakers is effectively betting £300 to win £100 at 1/3.

What that means is that staking is crucial. If you’re betting on any event at odds of say 3/1 then the chances of winning are approximately 25% and the chance of losing 75%. But TWO losers happens 56% of the time 3 losers 42% and 4 losers 31%.

For the bookie it’s the opposite. He’ll suffer a losing run of two less than half the time and he has a 70% chance of not suffering a losing run of 4 or more.

By staking sensibly you can ride out the losing runs and return to profit. The sure way to ruin is to escalate stakes after losing in some crazy retrieval system. You know the type. Double up until you hit a winner or add half the previous stake and so on.. All staking systems like that eventually lead to ruin because of losing runs.

The great thing about gambling professionally is it toughens you up mentally. you have to be able to handle the tough times or you just won’t last. In fact most Professionals have been skint once or twice (sometimes more!) But they made sure they learned from it, picked themselves up and re-entered the game a little wiser and a bit more cautiously.

And that’s why I advise bets in points. As you know I advise a minimum of a 1000 point bank. By staking in points it means you can calibrate the bet to your own bank.

 

So in May we had a drawdown of 240 points on the bank. For those that started in June 2008 their original bank had grown from 1000 to 4200 points. So while a 240 point drawdown hurts it’s not the end of the world.  It simply meant that profits had dropped from 3200 points to 2960.

What was unusual about May was that nearly all of our biggest bets went down. Several contacts expressed the view they had never seen so many bad or “unlucky” rides!!! It was certainly a time for reflection.  The following 9 bets alone accounted for over 100% of the losses on the month yet represented less than 10% of the bets! … Clasnacree , Dort Tranquille,  Gentle Mulla, Mohatashem , Incendo, Ottaman Empire  Just like Silk,  Masterofthehorse  and Alpha Tauri. And there were some very odd market moves late on for several of these.

There’s no point dwelling on it because things change quickly in racing and in fact it took only 3 weeks in June to get back all the losses and add a handsome £20,000 profit on top! You cannot keep good information down in the long run!

There were some good times in the month even though it was  a tough one.  Devil To pay a massive gamble landed at 4/1.  Other good priced winners, many of whom you’d find in the formbook included Rapid Water at 10/1, Sovereign Remedy at 4/1, Suroor at 11/1Braveheart Move at 9/2, Brief Encounter at 13/2 were all heart warming winners.  It was amazing that so many big priced horses we bet ran so well when the favourites ran so badly??  And several really big priced horse bet each way that placed returned good profits and would have made a big difference to the month round if they’d won.  For example  Delegator 2nd at 25/1 in the Guineas after bursting through with a winning run! … Doc Jones 2nd at 16/1, Mared 3rd at 11/1, Shibhan 2nd at 10/1

June 2009 to date ( 24th June)

How quick can it turn round in racing?

Try 10 days!

June started well and then we had more of teh bad rides and horses running badly. At our low point we slipped back to being just £280, 567.00 profit halfway through teh day on the 13th of June.

And then … WOW!

A Massive 7/1 winner in Royal Intruder and a big bet too, 15 Pts ew followed by another tasty 7/2 winner in Carribbean Coral saw us zoom into profit on the month. Then we hovered for a day or so before booting home  4 winners on the 16th including yet another Antepost winner with Mastercraftsman.

The profits just poured in then with great wins on jenny Potts at 7/1 Jealous again at 12/1!!! (almost like an antepost beta s we bet him the night before) and Forgotten Voice who stormed home in a super competitive handicap and made the rest look like carthorses. Definitely a case of a “Group horse masquerading as a  handicapper!” at 4/1

And if that wasn’t good enough we followed up with another 12/1 winner In Silver Grecian last Saturday and we were so so close to landing a stunning each way double with Pytheas and Imperial House.  Pytheas was 2 lengths clear in the last furlong, trading at huge odds on in running and just got caught close home. That one defeat alone cost us  97 points on the double and a further 52 point swing on the single. We were so close to an additional 149 points profit on the month. One race alone which would have cleared almost the whole of May’s losses by itself!

The profits have continued to climb and climb and 3 winners out of 3 bets on Tuesday at 7/1 4/1 and 5/2 certainly brought a smile to my face and finally wiped out the memories of our poor spell. You know making a living at racing would be so easy if it weren’t for the losing runs. My ex used to say to me “why don’t you just back the winner and leave the losers alone?!” … Gosh I wish I knew how to but sadly the losers are here to stay and are part and parcel of winning at racing.

May I digress a little? Losers are really upsetting, hurt your wallet and hurt your heart. But  if you only ever bet horses that are 110%, that have no doubts at all, and you know every other horse is useless or not trying .. then you’d be betting huge odds on all the time. You wouldn’t get many bets and you’d be betting £1000 to win £100. It’s just not viable.

On average I reckon we’ll hit around 30% winners. Less if we bet big priced horses eg  4/1 and over, more if we restrict ourselves to favourites at 6/4 or less. I know that because that’s what professional punters hit year after year. And the reason is obvious when you think about it. To get better prices there has to be some doubt about the horse. If it was an obvious sure thing  the bookies would give you such a ridiculous price you wouldn’t bet.

If you know  a horse is fit and well, but it’s had an absence and so the bookies aren’t sure you might get an extra pint or two on the price. Or if it’s trying a new trip and so there’s a doubt if it will stay … but you know from it’s breeding it’s highly likely it will … once again you’ll get better odds than you expect. Or you know or can see  it hasn’t been trying in its last few runs and “today’s the day”. ONce again you get bigger odds than you should.

These factors don’t make the horse win. But they do increase its chance of winning. If a horse has been waiting for fast ground say … and the trainer has run it down the field on soft for the last 6 runs to get its handicap mark down … It may not win but it’s a bloody good bet!  We have to remember that every trainer is desperate to win as many races as possible. And all of them have their own little tricks to try and improve the chances of their horse winning. That’s why we’ll only bet around 30% winners. But as the figure show you can make a very handsome living at that level!

That’s what staking is so important. the most vital thing about this game is to STAY IN IT! To survive! If you lose your tank you’re out and then you can’t win.

Last month I lost one old client and a couple of new ones. You can imagine can’t you? The run we went through was horrible and they just got fed up and lost too much. The temptation is to bet too much when you’re losing and the secret is to keep you head. My maximum bet is 50 Points (or 50 points each way). I haven’t had a maximum bet for ages and you’ll notice all through the losing run we we’re betting mainly between 10 and 20 points. There’s no need to double up, triple up or some crazy lunacy like that. Just keep betting steadily solidly. sooner or later the winners will come and this last two weeks they’ve come with a  vengeance.

But what makes me sad is those clients who left when we were losing have not enjoyed the recent winners. One had been with me since the beginning. His winnings should have only dipped by around 10% (let’s call it 20% to allow for not getting the best prices) Instead he started chasing and lost the lot.

I share this with you because I want you to protect your winnings and not get carried away when we have the inevitable bad spell. Come to think of it don’t get carried away on a good spell either! When you’ve bet 3 winners on the trot it’s too easy to lump on the next. If I’m recommending 8pts 6 pts and 12 pts and they all win and the next bet is 10 points don’t go mad and have 50 just because you’re playing with the bookies money! That strategy will also lead to ruin because you’d then have lost an extra  40 points for no reason. Don’t think of any moeny as teh bookies money. think of it as your own! Treat it accordinly and spend the winnings on yourself, your family and loved ones not on stupidly increasing a bet just because you’re ahead.

I mention this now only because we are enjoying a Golden Spell and I want to make sure you keep a cool head, preserve your bank and enjoy the future winnings we anticipate. You can only do that by staying in the game so look after your bank! I know it’s tempting to increase stakes when we’r doing so well. But polease only increase them slowy in line with your bank. if your bank doubles by all means double your stakes per point. But don’t increase your bank by 10% and up your stakes by 100%! It’s highly unlikely to work out long term!

I’ll sign off now because I really need to start studying tomorrow’s racing.

 

All the best

 

Bob

Bush Telegraph

Bush Telegraph

This is a free feature that  highlights thoughts and messages from Spy by around 10 am.

These comments are part of the day’s analysis and are not always the horses Bob and myself back. The most salient messages are often received later on. However, this feature is designed to point you in the right direction, highlighting horses worthy of consideration, or, in some cases, those that can be opposed.

During the day, messages drift in as stables compare notes, runners arrive at the track and connections finalise betting plans.

Bob tends to strike late when he feels he has the maximum amount of information at his disposal; whereas Bush Telegraph tends to reflect my slant on the day at an earlier stage. As a result, Bob’s analysis is likely to be more thorough and factor in more information than I have at 10am. You will know his service is not cheap, so Bush Telegraph is offered as a value alternative to the smaller punter.

 

Happy punting

Spy

PS If you would like to receive these tips please register below and I’ll add you from tomorrow so that I can send you an alert with this week’s password.

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PRESS RELEASE Tips By Text

PressRelease_206x290Top racing tipster launches Tips by Text service – Trial run wins £85,741.50

Bob Rothman ‘the man the bookies banned’ announces a new service – racing tips direct to the punter’s mobile. The trial run won £85,741.50 from BetFred in just 46 weeks.

It is 20 years since Bob Rothman shook the UK racing world by being banned by every major UK bookmaker. Since then, he has offered clients a phone-in racing tip service from his headquarters in Surrey.

Rob says of the new service: “For two decades clients have been phoning in to our members-only number between 11 and 1 o’ clock to learn if there’s a good bet that day. If there is, they place a bet for me, then bet as much as they like for themselves on the same horse.

But professional betting sometimes requires you to act very fast, because you are racing to get on before other professionals. That’s why clients have been asking for tips by text, direct to their mobile. Texting means we can broadcast hot tips at exactly the right time and odds. It’s all very time critical.”

A select group of clients joined in a dry run and average winnings worked out at £1,863.95 a week, assuming all tips were placed at the recommended stake.

Returns are auditable, as Bob is releasing his full account history with BetFred over the period 26th May 2007 to 17th April 2008, when the bookie closed his account, having lost £85,741 to him.  Bob intends to publish weekly performance results on the website 

Bob Rothman Get Surrey article

Click Bob Rothman to see the original article

Would you bet on Bob?

By Jonathan Stayton
November 02, 2006

Bob Rothman, who runs a horse-racing tipping service, has been so successful with his bets he says his accounts with leading bookmakers are limited within days of opening.

In his most successful year, Bob claims to have made a profit of about £440,000, but is now reduced to gambling smaller quantities as many bookmakers refuse to accept his money.

The 53-year-old has resorted to placing bets, averaging between £500 and £2,000, using friends’ accounts to avoid the restrictions placed on his own – but finds that even those are often limited within hours.

“I opened an account in my wife’s name and had one bet at lunchtime, with racing starting at 2pm,” he said. “It was 12/1 and I placed £833.33 to win £10,000. It was running in the evening and when I went to place another bet I found it had been limited already, even though the race had not been run.

“I opened one account on a Saturday afternoon and put £600 into it, and made that into £18,500 by the end of the day, and then couldn’t get proper bets on the account.

“On another one I turned £2,000 into £12,000 and they suspended the account so I couldn’t get at it, and they said we want a copy of the bank details and passport, because they think ‘who the hell is this person?’.”

Despite the best efforts of bookmakers, Bob, who claims to have won more than £100,000 in a single day, says he has 11 or 12 different accounts at his disposal.

His gambling began more than 20 years ago, when he fell in love with a Ferrari.

“I thought, ‘I’ll win that’,” he said. “I got £2,000 out and put it on a 14/1 tip and lost it all. Then a while later I put another £2,000 on the same horse and lost that too when it finished fourth and I was so cross and so disappointed so I said I am going to do it myself.”

In 1986, Bob advertised for contacts and admits to losing solidly for months, before his luck changed.

“I had a couple of golden years,” he said. “And then got closed down in 1986/7. I’m gutted because in my second year I won £440,000 and I thought ‘I can’t believe this’.”

He turned to tipping when he answered an advert seeking an investor in a racing syndicate, only to be told ‘you’ll never beat the bookie’.

“I thought there was a real opening there and set up the business,” he said.

Rothman Racing, based in Cobham, charges its members £80 per month for tips, also retaining whatever a £50 bet would win.

“Tipping is a lot different to betting,” he said. “With betting to win you’re trying to get value. If you offered me heads versus tails at 5/4, I’d do it all day long and end up making 20%. But if you’re tipping, if it comes up tails four times in a row, your customers will leave you. People want winners so they don’t always get value. No one’s very excited about betting on odds on horses so you have to come half way between.

“It is like buying widescreen televisions – if they are worth £2,000, and are offered for £1,500, you’re not too interested, but if they’re offered for £300 you say ‘how many?’ – it is a case of making the decision on whether the return is worth it. On the National Lottery people, on average, get 50p in the pound back – if you bought 14-million tickets you would get £7million back, but in racing it’s about 85p in the pound betting blind.”

Bob, who says he is happy to lose money because he knows he will ultimately win, started betting in his own name again in January this year.

“They gave me a £2,000 bet, and I thought this is fantastic, I didn’t believe it,” he said. “But I had a terrible day, I was hung over from New Year’s Eve and I lost £16,000, but the great thing was that I was back. By the end of the week I was £10,000 up and had already lost a couple of the accounts. I could bet £1 for every £100 everyone else could bet.”

Bob is so sure in his ability he challenged the News & Mail to a £1,000 evens bet that he could have any account limited within one month.

“I bet on the horses because I have an edge, some people love golf, I do racing. I’m just fortuitous I make money out of it,” he said.

Daily Telegraph – Top Tipster

Top tipster finds going rough

by John Coats – Daily telegraph

At odds of 16-1, Lucy’s Gold in the 2.45 at Lingfield looked a good bet. The Friday lunchtime punter pushed £163;200 across the betting shop counter.

The day before, the manager at William Hill had happily taken a £163,300 bet. Now he looked reluctant to take £163;200. He rang his head office. “Sorry,” he said, “we can only give you the starting price on this one.”

By the time the race started, the odds had shortened to 9-2, reflecting the large sums gamblers were suddenly prepared to stake on a previously unfancied horse.

Lucy’s Gold was ‘hot’ because it was backed by one of the country’s top professional tipsters and gamblers. The bookies were scared of being stung.

By offering the starting price only, William Hill had time to lay money on Lucy’s Gold at the racetrack, they were shortening the odds and reducing their financial exposure.

The man scaring the bookies was Bob Rothman, a Price Waterhouse trained former accountant who claims to make as much as £163;500,000 a year by talking to the trainers, studying form and picking up racing yard gossip. Bookmakers no longer accept any bets of a substantial size from him.

So to make a living, Mr Rothman, 39, sells his knowledge to a network of clients who not only pay him for racing tips but also put his bets on for him. With more than 40 clients, he can stake large sums of money on a race.

But the bookies are catching up; he says they are out to destroy his network by refusing to take bets on certan races. He also believes they may have a spy among his clients.

“They are trying to manipulate the market so that it will be difficult for punters to make serious money,” says Mr Rothman at his office in Leatherhead, Surrey. “All they seem to want is mug punters, not shrewd bets.”

Recent weeks have seen victories for Mr Rothman’s Tips. There was Misty Silks at Leicester, which came in at a starting price of 6-1 after Rothman clients managed to get early odds of 20-1. They got 7-2 on Moving Image, which won at Southwell. Then came Allegsnobrain at Nottingham, winning 8-1.

On Wednesday, in the 2.15 at Bath, Mr Genealogy , another Rothman tip, won. But many of his clients found they could get odds only at the starting price.

“I tried to bet £163;50 on the horse at Ladbrokes at a price of 5-2 but they refused,” said Bob Fairhall, an engineer in Macclesfield, Cheshire.

“They wouldn’t even take £163;20 and I had to put my money on at a silly starting price of 7-4. This is the first time this has happened to me in 15 years.”

Last Thursday, Mr Rothman advised his clients to back Ima Red Neck in the 2.20 at Nottingham.

Opening odds at 10-2 were expected in the betting shops, but by the time the race card was shown in the shops several minutes later, the odds were down to 6-4. The bookies seem to have been forewarned.

Mr Rothman’s horse came fourth, bringing his run of success to a sudden halt. He said, “By the time the race card was shown, the prices were hardly worth taking.”

“I believe the betting shops are deliberately throwing money at the on-course bookies to weaken the odds.”

But a spokesman for William Hill said: “Like other bookmakers, we reserve the right to refuse or accept part or the whole of any commission. We don’t usually lay off huge amounts of money on the track. But if we feel the money on course is not reflecting the money off-course, then we will make money ourselves.”

I see £17,000 winnings in one day DAILY EXPRESS MAGAZINE

Racing Cert

Daily Express Magazine

Robert Moore lays odds with Bob Rothman, the man who beats the bookies at their own game – and sees winnings of £17,000 in one day

Every year the British public gambles a staggering £163;5 billion on horse races. I’s no wonder that the bookies have their own favourite joke about the punting public: “Never in the field of human endeavour has so much been given by so many to so few”.

However, I’m sitting in front of a man who has turned the tables on the bookmakers. He hasn’t always been a winner. Three years ago Bob Rothman’s computer company went under and he was bankrupt. Convinced there was a way to make money fast he took up gambling. Now he is the most successful punter on the horse-racing circuit. Last year he made a profit of £440,000.

What is so immediately striking about Rothman is that he doesn’t look anything like the stereotypical gambler: dressed in a casual suede jacket and sporting a Viking moustache he neither resembles the addicted working-class bobby Box nor the upper-class casino smoothie, aka Omar Sharif.

Rothman isn’t nearly so glamorous. He doesn’t wear double breasted suits. He hasn’t got a trilby. In fact he doesn’t even go to the races. All the betting is done over the phone from a desk in the dining room of his Wimbledon home. From here he bets on up to 18 races a day, six days a week, and turns over £2 million a year. “I know I’m going to win,” he grins confidently.

When most of us enjoy a little wager at the races we talk about “favourites” and “hunches”. But Rothman speech is spattered with phrases like “informer networks”, “market manipulation” and “percentage profit”.

“Because I haven’t been gambling since my teens like many professionals, I’ve approached it from a new angle. Rather than study horses for 20 years I’ve built a network of the best racing experts in the business: owners, trainers and stableboys. I buy in their information.”

Its only 7.30 in the morning but they are already ringing in with their “warm” tips for the day’s racing. A “warm” tip is gambling parlance for inside information. And Rothman covers every last detail because he’ll have thousands of pounds riding on four legs. Was the horse stiff during its morning run? Did it finish its breakfast?

Rothman has never met some of his connections but he speaks with them all each day, and pays some a salary.

“My aim is to find this one horse in the race that is good value, either because the bookie doesn’t know enough about the horse or because the average punters are all backing the favourite, tipped by the papers.

“Looking for value is the biggest distinction between pros and the public. Pros look for winners, sure, but they won’t back them unless they’ll make a large profit.”

His bets are massive but Rothman hardly blinks as he puts £1,000 each-way on the third favourite in the 4.10 at Newmarket, and £2,000 to win on the 4.45 at Plumpton. Then Rothman puts another £40,000 on “camouflage bets”.

“These are high-risk bets that I put on to make myself look like a causal punter. You see, if the bookies catch on to the fact that I’m a professional they may try to ruin my bet by bringing down the horse’s  odds or they may even refuse to take my bets altogether. Bookies ban people who win too much.”

Among professionals, getting banned by bookies is a sign of success. Most pros get closed down once or twice. But Rothman’s rise has been so sudden that last year he was closed down by 25 different betting shops. Ever the entrepreneur, he has confounded the bookies by starting up a unique tipping business: he now sells his tips to punters and in return they put his bets on for him.

By 11.30 all his bets are set up and he leaves for lunch. While Joe Punter starts to pour into smoke-filled betting shops across the land, we whisk off in Rothman’s gold Rolls Royce to a Wimbledon wine bar. Here clean-living Rothman orders a bottle of Perrier and a Waldorf salad.

“People are very surprised when they find I’m a gambler,” he acknowledges. “They expect me to be flash with money, have loads of free time, and stay up all night.

“At first my friends thought I was just throwing my money away. For a while I was. Before I mastered gambling I’d lost £30,000, mortgaged my house, and was living off an American Express loan – all in six months.

“Whenever I have a losing streak I take a holiday and go somewhere like Bali to water-ski and relax. I’s very hard to continue making the right judgements if you’re losing. You tend to chase your losses. Virtually all punters are losers in the end,” Rothman frowns, half-amused but half-amazed. “Honestly, so many horses aren’t even fit for their races but the public keep backing them.”

After lunch we return to Rothman’s TV and blower – a specialised racing radio which relays all the results. Over and over again the commentator reaches a fever-pitch babble as each race climaxes. But for a man who has put the price of your average house on to a bunch of dumb oat-eaters, Rothman is remarkably calm.

As the afternoon progresses some of Rothman’s camouflage bets are not successful. He expected this. By four o’clock he’s down by £1,108. Then third favourite in the 4.10 comes in first and wins him £13,750. The 4.45 at Plumpton follows and wins him a further £6,250. He breaks even on the camouflage bets. “I’s been a good day,” he smiles with irritating understatement. After betting tax, he made £17,000 from one day’s work.

I was hoping to see what this amount of money looked like, but Rothman does not go to the bookies to scoop up crumpled wodges. Nor are his winnings delivered in cases full of crisp fivers. Unglamorous to the end, but they will arrive by post as a cheque.

Bookies ban the winner by a head – Scotland on Sunday

– Scotland on Sunday, March 17.

After last week’s £2m Cheltenham jackpot, Ron McKay meets a punter who has made betting his business

If backing horses is a mug’s game then Bob Rothman is several furlongs short of the healthy gallop.

He exhibits some of the classic signs of romance of the turf – “I’d bet ten grand a week if I could” – he studies form and racing information from the moment he gets up in the morning, and he is often to be seen breaking into a wide grin. This means he’s probably off to see his bank manager.

Bob Rothman is a professional punter and the antithesis of the bookies fool. More then 25 bookmakers have refused to handle his business because he is too successful – he does not bet ten grand a week because they won’t take his money.

So he punts through an elaborate network of friends and acquaintances who place bets for him, and he runs a highly successful tipsters business complete with logarithm-like tables and electronic bleepers.

“Backing horses really isn’t risky at all,” he claims. After a steep and expensive learning curve on which he lost £35,000 in six months, Rothman perfected his cardinal equine business principles – and staking a £50,000 second mortgage on them he made more than £400,000 in 12 months on an “investment” of £2m.

He says the £35,000 was the price of his education. Through it he was appreciating form, and making  target=”_blank”>contacts in stables and among other professional punters. He didn’t start to fret when his school fees rose. “My friends did; they thought I was mad. But I was getting better with every bet, so it was just a matter of time and an application of principles.”

Rothman talks in business management terms about betting. The average punter loses, he says “because he’s doing it for entertainment – 20 or 30 guys getting together in a betting shop. If you want to win you have to work at it, to spend 40, 60 or 80 hours a week at it”

Apart from hard work Rothman holds to two basic management principles: betting “value for money” – dispensing with emotion and working out whether the odds you are being offered on a fancied horse actually make sense on the balance sheet after outgoings like tax – and betting in proportion, looking at the total of what you have and deciding what the next stake should be.

“Most gamblers chase each loss. When they lose they bet heavier on the next one. When they win they tend to hold on to the profit for later. They should be exactly the other way around.

“What you do is observe the 10% rule. If you’ve decided to invest £1,000 in ten tranches of £100 and your first horse loses, then stake next time not £100 but £90, then 10% of what you have left and so on.”

So far, so good. But doesn’t the selection of horses figure somewhere?

Rothman smiles again and seems almost to brush that aside. “If you follow my tips you will have a 30 – 40% success rate. If you scrupulously observe the principles, bet at the correct odds, you’ll do better than you would with a building society.”

What sort of profit – “percentage on turnover” is how he puts it  – could someone follow the Rothman rules anticipate? “I think 25% would be very good,” he answered. “Bookmakers work on 22% so that would be getting a few points on them.”

The visible signs of Rothman’s success include a gold Cartier watch, a low-slung sports car – he traded in the gold Rolls Royce because his wife told him it was an “old man’s car” – and a large modern house in Wimbledon which is also his office.

So what had been his most successful bets?

“Cheltenham, this week was very good for me. The most I have won in one day is £72,000. Twice. And the most on one horse, Gymnastics, a 33-1 shot was £35,000.”

The problem is that the ultimate accolade of success – blacklisting by William Hill and Co – pulls him up in his tracks. Enter Rothmans revenge, the masterplan to beggar the bookmakers.

He has brought a horse, a proven winner abroad with no former history in this country which, through a network of ownerships, shell companies and the like, he intends running in a novice plate, far below its class. “It’s going to cost about £30,000 – £50,000 for the horse plus stabling – and on the betting I expect to make £50,000 to £100,000 within the next six to eight weeks.”

Then, retirement from the turf? “Hardly. Sell and do the same thing again.

“In the City it would probably be called insider dealing. The Jockey Club might not approve, but in racing there is no such concept. The difference is that in the City, insider information invariably leads to success. On the turf failure is always possible.

“You know, I brought a horse once and it died of a heart attack almost next day.”

The Jonathan Stayner Interview 2007

Bob’s a winner

The Jonathan Stayton interview

Bob Rothman, who runs a horse-racing tipping service, has been so successful with his bets he says his accounts with leading bookmakers are limited within days of opening.

In his most successful year, Bob claims to have made a profit of about £440,000, but is now reduced to gambling smaller quantities as many bookmakers refuse to accept his money.

The 53-year-old has resorted to placing bets, averaging between £500 and £2,000, using friends’ accounts to avoid the restrictions placed on his own – but finds that even those are often limited within hours.

“I opened an account in my wife’s name and had one bet at lunchtime, with racing starting at 2pm,” he said. “It was 12/1 and I placed £833.33 to win £10,000. It was running in the evening and when I went to place another bet I found it had been limited already, even though the race had not been run.

“I opened one account on a Saturday afternoon and put £600 into it, and made that into £18,500 by the end of the day, and then couldn’t get proper bets on the account.

“On another one I turned £2,000 into £12,000 and they suspended the account so I couldn’t get at it, and they said we want a copy of the bank details and passport, because they think ‘who the hell is this person?’.”

Despite the best efforts of bookmakers, Bob, who claims to have won more than £100,000 in a single day, says he has 11 or 12 different accounts at his disposal.

His gambling began more than 20 years ago, when he fell in love with a Ferrari.

“I thought, ‘I’ll win that’,” he said. “I got £2,000 out and put it on a 14/1 tip and lost it all. Then a while later I put another £2,000 on the same horse and lost that too when it finished fourth and I was so cross and so disappointed so I said I am going to do it myself.”

In 1986, Bob advertised for contacts and admits to losing solidly for months, before his luck changed.

“I had a couple of golden years,” he said. “And then got closed down in 1986/7. I’m gutted because in my second year I won £440,000 and I thought ‘I can’t believe this’.”

He turned to tipping when he answered an advert seeking an investor in a racing syndicate, only to be told ‘you’ll never beat the bookie’.

“I thought there was a real opening there and set up the business,” he said.

Rothman Racing, based in Cobham, charges its members £80 per month for tips, also retaining whatever a £50 bet would win.

“Tipping is a lot different to betting,” he said. “With betting to win you’re trying to get value. If you offered me heads versus tails at 5/4, I’d do it all day long and end up making 20%. But if you’re tipping, if it comes up tails four times in a row, your customers will leave you. People want winners so they don’t always get value. No one’s very excited about betting on odds on horses so you have to come half way between.

“It is like buying widescreen televisions – if they are worth £2,000, and are offered for £1,500, you’re not too interested, but if they’re offered for £300 you say ‘how many?’ – it is a case of making the decision on whether the return is worth it. On the National Lottery people, on average, get 50p in the pound back – if you bought 14-million tickets you would get £7million back, but in racing it’s about 85p in the pound betting blind.”

Bob, who says he is happy to lose money because he knows he will ultimately win, started betting in his own name again in January this year.

“They gave me a £2,000 bet, and I thought this is fantastic, I didn’t believe it,” he said. “But I had a terrible day, I was hung over from New Year’s Eve and I lost £16,000, but the great thing was that I was back. By the end of the week I was £10,000 up and had already lost a couple of the accounts. I could bet £1 for every £100 everyone else could bet.”

Bob is so sure in his ability he challenged the News & Mail to a £1,000 evens bet that he could have any account limited within one month.

“I bet on the horses because I have an edge, some people love golf, I do racing. I’m just fortunate I make money out of it,” he said.

Click Bob Rothman to view the original article

The John Piper Interview June 2008

John Piper is one of the world’s most respected and able market analysts, and is the UK’s most experienced independent trader in futures and options on the web.

John Piper Interviews Bob Rothman in The Technical Trader, the City’s most respected trading newsletters

John has been trading markets since the mid 80s, trading right through the ’87 Crash, annual turnover exceeding £2m of option premiums on his personal account, managing money in excess of $1m, TV trading contest winner, and founder of The Technical Trader subscription newsletter – the definitive trading resource since 1989.

He is also the best-selling author of The Way To Trade, the classic work on trading psychology that gets deep into the mind of the market, and his 2007 book Binary Betting revolutionises the way we trade today.

JP: It is Wednesday 27th May and I am sitting here with Bob Rothman a professional trader with a difference. Bob do you want to explain?

BR: I call myself a professional gambler. I think both terms are more or less the same, one day you’re trading the next day you’re gambling. It’s all fundamentally the same principal. You buy cheap, sell expensive.

JP: Do you mean that one day you are trading in the sense…

BR: I do regard the trading element of gambling as more of the pussy side of things. Where you take a small secure profit, so trading for me is where I back a horse at 5-1, and then lay it at 4-1 to get a sure win. That would be trading. Whereas just backing it at 5-1 is the gamble. Personally I think trading is bad value because you are giving away too much. If you are laying off part of the bet you have to pay a premium or give a premium price to lay it off.

JP: Yes, with binary bets it is the same thing. If you bail out you miss the lion’s share of the profit. You may do better on the one bet but if you keep doing it you miss out on the big wins.

BR: The value is to iron out fluctuations in your cash flow and also the fluctuations in your emotional state because it maybe you haven’t got what it takes to carry on. By trading you can guarantee you will have some winners all the time but they will be smaller winners. I don’t think you will make as much money by trading out of situations.

JP: Yes, I have come to the same conclusions myself. To succeed profits have got to run.

BR: I tell you where I would trade myself and that is to increase value. Say I wanted £1000 on a horse and you “know” it is going to shorten up (meaning get more expensive to back – Ed.) then I may put £2000 on it and sell £1000 back. So you have increased the value, you have increased your net value on the £1000 that you were willing to bet in the first place.

JP: OK, but say if that does not happen.

BR: Then you have made a bad decision.

JP: You don’t bail out if that happens.

BR: Sometimes…

JP: In fact we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves, the first question I was going to ask you was how did you get into this to start with? What attracted you to this business?

when I was a kid, I guess about 16 or 17, I thought it would be cool to be a professional gambler

BR: Well, I tried a couple of times actually. The first time I tried was when I was a kid I guess about 16 or 17 and I thought it would be cool to be a professional gambler. So I tried it for around three months and I could not make it pay.

JP: This was horses?

BR: Yes, horses. Actually I played a bit of cards and I could win money playing cards among friends. But basically I gave it up as a bad idea.

JP: You were quite good at backgammon as I recall.

BR: Backgammon I loved. I think backgammon is a wonderful trading training game for trading skills. Because backgammon teaches you to be honest about your decisions. There are a few situations where there absolutely is a right and a wrong answer. So unless you perform perfectly in those situations where you know there is a right or a wrong answer you have got no chance of performing when the answer is a bit more ambiguous.

I guess the classic one is in the 3 rolls v. the 3 rolls run-off in the end game. The rule is it’s a double and it’s a drop (meaning you do not accept the doubling dice after a double – Ed.). People only take (the dice) when they are steaming, when they are chasing. So you know, if someone takes the dice, that they have a flaw in their decision making process. Usually its because they are emotionally upset because they are losing. Obviously you get into more complex situations where it is not clear cut and it then becomes a matter of opinion.

JP: When we played together I just felt that you  had a huge psychological advantage over me for various reasons. I am not quite sure what they were. You seemed to be able to read the game much better and were much less affected psychologically by what was going on. I have never played the game that seriously so I guess that is what I should expect.

BR: There are two edges in backgammon. They are that you maximise your winning possibilities by moving your pieces in such a way that, firstly, more rolls are lucky for you and, secondly. unlucky for your opponent. If you do that well and your opponent doesn’t do it well the result is that you appear to be lucky more and your opponent feels that he is being unlucky.

JP: Hmm, so I was only playing half the game.

If you feel you are not doing well, you start doing worse

BR: Yes, and if you feel you are not doing well, you start doing worse. Apart from that, the other strength is just in making the right decisions. Take the classic example of the doubling dice. The rule is that you double when you have the advantage and you accept the double if you have no less than 25% chance of winning the game. So at a 25% chance it would be a neutral decision; more than 25% you take it and less than 25% you drop.

So, as long as you make the right decision, in other words if you knew you had a 26% chance of the game and you took the cube even though you lost it because you were likely to lose it, as the odds are around 3-1 that you are going to lose, you can be proud of yourself because you made the right decision. It doesn’t matter that you have lost. What does matter is that you have made the right decision.

JP: And you compute that mathematically?

BR: Well, you try to. As I say, in backgammon there are only a few situations where it is absolutely clear cut where you can calculate. The others are matters of opinion. When you play backgammon, even with world experts, there will be a range of opinions. They will argue and they will disagree as to which is the right course of action. Generally they will agree but there will be some moves where no one will know which is the best move.

JP: Interesting! To return to your trading now the first time you tried you were 16 or 17 on the horses…

BR: That didn’t work and the second time was just as I was leaving the second job in my life…

JP: As an accountant?

BR: No, actually no, the first 9 months was with Price Waterhouse and then 9 months with Olivetti. I left and was in business, and my girlfriend, Sandy, broke down on the A3 and got a lift home by a trainer. John Jenkins. He stopped, gave her a life home with an owner in the car and they saw we had stables and we got talking about horses.

I won 3 months salary and I didn’t bet again for another 5 years.

This guy, she told me later, he said something like, “back this horse, Sunnybanks Angel, it will win next week.” The trainer then said, “shut up, shut up, you idiot!” She explained it much more elegantly than that and I thought, hmm, looks like someone has let something slip and they shouldn’t have done. I bet it and I think I went for £1500 which, compared to what I was earning at the time, which was around £500 pm. So I won 3 months salary and I didn’t bet again for another 5 years.

JP: So that was your second go, one bet?

BR: I had the second go and I realised that I did not want to bet again without an advantage. I had realised as a child that I could not make it work and the next time, and this was when I really started betting. Sandy and I split up, we had horses at home and they went into a livery yard and I used to go and ride my horse at the weekend. One weekend I was talking to the guy who was the handyman at the stable. We were just chatting and he said “Oh I backed this horse at 20 to 1 and this one at 16 to1.” My ears pricked up and I said “Oh really, how come you can do that.” He told me he used to work in racing, “I used to ride out, and I hear a lot of stuff . In fact the owners of this place, they have a horse that is going to win in a couple of weeks time called Tom Forrester.

I forgot all about it really. A week or so later I was sat having breakfast and I suddenly thought, crikey that horse will be running soon. I had better check it. I opened up the paper and there it was. It was the first time I had looked at a racing paper for years. I thought, my God, this is a sign, this is karmic resonance (laughs).

I must have intuitively known this was the right day and I was driving into work and I stopped at the traffic lights near the Chessington World of Adventure and there was a Ferrari in the window of the garage there. I looked across and it was a beautiful sunny day and the Ferrari was about 30 grand – this was 20 years ago. And I thought – I’ll win that! That’s it, I’m going to win that Ferrari today.

The horse was 14 to 1. So I went to the bank, I got 2 grand out and I took the morning off work. I said to the guys, I’m just going out for a meeting, and I spread all this money round these betting shops.

JP: You couldn’t put it on all at once?

BR: No, because you would kill the odds. I felt like I had done a good job as they had only shortened up to 12. Which I thought was pretty good. It took a lot of driving around, 50 quid here and a 100 quid there.

JP: But you knew enough about betting to know that you needed to do that?

BR: Oh yes, I remember now, I managed a betting shop before I went to university. That was how I knew that bookmakers, if a stranger came in with a big bet for a horse, they would ring it through to their head office. If two or more shops rang it through the head office would shorten up the horse and so I was putting it in, in fairly small amounts in different betting shops.

JP: So really that job in the betting shop was your apprenticeship almost? The way it turned out.

BR: Yes, it was helpful. Not in picking winners. Anyway, I guess like many people, the race came up, the horse ran absolutely terribly (laughs) and I was choked, I couldn’t believe it, I had just wasted two thousand pounds. I wasn’t well off at the time. I needed the money.

In fact I had split up with Sandy and I was living at a friend’s house in a tiny little box room while she was sitting at home entertaining people around the swimming pool and I was running out of cash.

Anyway, I rode my horse that weekend, and Bill said “Oh hello, I hope you didn’t back that horse, or lose too much on it.” I couldn’t tell him what I had done and I told him I had lost a tenner. And he said “that’s good. Its good, because what happened was their grandmother died and they had a funereal in the morning. So obviously they went to the funeral and they must have unsettled it in some way…

Anyway, finally I start winning and I guess fundamentally my strategy was to identify other people I thought were winners, and help them win by getting money on for them and that way I would be privy to the information and it worked. I met a couple of very good people who mentored me and helped me sift through. I mean at one stage I had around 40 people ringing me up every day with information. It was driving me mad.

But luckily I could turn to one of my mentors and say, I’ve had this guy ringing me up about this horse here. “What an idiot” he said, I’ve spoken to the stables this morning and it’s not even fit. What about this other guy, he has rung me up about this horse. He would say, “that is ludicrous, it is not the right distance for that horse.” So he helped me sift out horses and information and I learnt about the business and then finally I started winning.

The first time I won, I think I won about twelve thousand quid over a couple of weeks and I was going halves with this other professional. I found a guy who used to be a racehorse owner, in fact, he still had horses. He had some outlets and some bookmakers who were taking what in those days were called Sporting Life prices.

In other words they were laying the prices in the paper, fundamentally when they find mugs they would say, look you can have this price in the paper, and I said, don’t you worry, I will give you the bets, and we will win. So I did, I gave him the bets, we lost the first week. I sent him £500 I think.

The second week I think I won about £3,000, the third week around £8,000 and then about another £5,000. It was about £13,000 he owed me and…. he did a runner (laughs).

JP: Oh no!

BR: I caught him, I wondered what was going on, anyway, I caught him one night emptying his office out and he gave me three cheques and they all bounced. The saddest thing was the professional I was working with, he was in

for half, so I had to honour the £6,500 of the £13,000 that we won. So my first major victory actually put me even more in the hock.”

JP: That is not fun is it? So you didn’t know him very well then.

BR: No, I didn’t know him very well. He had been introduced through someone else. It is another of those things you start learning.

JP: What happened to the money do you think.

BR: I don’t think he had the money. I think what happened was, I had given him cash to put the bets on and it turned out he had a horse. He was in trouble and he had a horse that was running, it was running in a cellar somewhere, and he had taken the cash…

JP: A cellar?

BR: A cellar, which is a low grade horse race and I think he was desperate and he had taken the cash that I had given him, and maybe the cash we had won as well, and he had backed his own horse and lost it all. Anyway, he was going skint and he was a sad person. So it was a lesson. It’s not the only time. That’s one thing about trading in the stock market, you don’t get knocked, do you, you always get paid.

JP: Yes, you do, I’ve never had a situation like that.

BR: I had another one. I had a bookmaker and I sent him a £5,000 deposit and I bet with him and I won’t mention names because the guy who used to do his card is now a very major player in racing, but with the bookmaker I bet and won £1,000 so now I’m owed £6,000 and he did a runner (laughs) with my five grand and my winnings. So the first lesson is…getting paid.

JP: This is still 1985/86 we are talking about?

BR: Yes, or maybe 86/87.

JP: And you have been doing this ever since so it is now over twenty years…

(to be continued)

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What makes you better than all the other tipsters?

What makes you any better than all the other tipsters?

Bob Rothman, our founder, has been at this game for 20 years. He has done what he says and we can prove it:

  • Read our testimonials from delighted customers.
  • See the newspaper articles from the Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, The Sun and so on. Feel free to check them out at your local library.
  • Bob puts his money where his mouth is. Although it’s difficult for us to place bets with the bookies (Because of our track record), every selection Bob gives out is a horse that we invest our own money in. We are one of the few professional services operated by a genuine professional gambler who bets on his own selections.
  • He has been in this business for 20 years… while countless others have quietly disappeared. Gambling is a brutal business and only the best survive.

Call our offices and speak to us ‘live’…

Do feel free to call our offices during business hours. A real, live human being will answer the phone. Feel free to ask whatever you want about our service.

The number to call is 01932 869 400. We look forward to speaking to you and

helping you with your questions…