ENGLISH RACING FAILS TO COMPETE

SUNDAY MAY 11TH

On the day of the French 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Longchamp, and when Leopardstown were responsible for the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial as well as two other Group 3 events, the best we could come up with on these shores was Plumpton and Ludlow.

Of course some of you may have been rejoicing that the jumpers (who never actually go away these days) were back.

In essence, the French were at it again – stealing our thunder, something Paris was not devoid of on a damp Sunday. To an extent the weather did its best to dampen proceedings. It rained; more accurately it pelted down.

As was widely anticipated, Jean Claude Rouget won the French 1000 – or the Poule Essai Pouliches as it is known locally – but not with most people’s idea, Lesstalk In Paris, but with Avenir Certain.

Known to enjoy a topic of conversation over or during lunch, officials called the almost obligatory stewards’ inquiry not long after the winner passed the post. To be fair, when pulled out to make her run in the straight, the winner’s actions could be likened to a night club bouncer on a day off. Several rivals were given ‘some of that’ as, in search of daylight, she barged them out of the way.

Once in the clear she was easily the best filly in the race, sloshing home in a rainstorm. Veda was second ahead of Xcellence, who had beaten Miss France in a messy Impudence. Bawina took the eye in fourth. By Dubawi, she was staying on and could be a major player in the Prix de Diane.

Five minutes after the French 1000 Guineas, Mandy’s Boy broke his maiden over hurdles at Ludlow. Not to be outdone by events in Longchamp, the bing-bong followed although no further action was taken.

Half an hour on Ludlow grabbed some unwelcome headlines with what could only be described as a gross piece of incompetence. What we had was a complete farce initiated by the starter.

To vary the drama, he let the runners go for the three mile chase then frantically decided to wave his yellow flag which the recall man failed to see. This was not entirely surprising given the start looked bona fide to just about every witness.

Two miles later the runners were brought to a halt by another flag-waver. All this after what appeared to be a perfect dispatch from the gates, and in front of a packed Sunday house of casual race-goers, many of whom will presumably assume racing’s administrators are a bunch of monkeys in various jackets, coats and suits.

Back at Longchamp the sun came out for the colts. Last year’s Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Karakontie dug deep to wriggle through on the inner rail and hold off the persistent challenge of Prestige Vendome in the 2000 Guineas. Despite pulling early as if he had a train to catch, Newbury handicap winner Muwaary justified inclusion in the field when finishing fourth.

At Leopardstown, clues for the Irish 1000 Guineas were thin on the ground as a result of the Group 3 trial. Afternoon Sunlight lasted home in a bunch finish from Palace, with Ballbacka Queen and Waltzing Matilda looking as if they will be better over further close up in third and fourth.

The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial was seen as the big classic clue race by many. Ballsax winner Fascinating Rock and last year’s Beresford winner Geoffrey Chaucer dominated the betting.

On a day littered with the speculation of inquiries, we had yet another one here. As every sixth former will recall, amongst other outpourings, Geoffrey Chaucer was responsible for the oft-ribald Canterbury Tales. This was the kind of day he may have preferred not have had to have penned. A classic run in a monsoon in France; unless something unforeseen comes to light – and even if it does (sometimes you let sleeping dogs lie) – a starter with ideas above his station at Ludlow, followed by added drama in Ireland.

Ebanoran was first past the post in the Derrinstown ahead of Fascinating Rock with a showboating Geoffrey Chaucer in third. But on what was meant to be a routine Sunday peppered with Group action, the tension continued.

The trouble with this was that Geoffrey Chaucer was impeded twice by the two that finished in front of him. Ebanoran was first to deal a race-denying blow as he made a winning move two out, rolled across Mr Chaucer’s path and then held on.

Fascinating Rock finished with a flourish, also leaning in on the giant Geoffrey Chaucer, meaning Joseph O’Brien had to snatch up and cruise home, looking unlucky. To an extent he was, but he wouldn’t have won today on a horse that, although a strong traveller, may have been rusty and was not on this occasion quick enough to take his chance when he had it.

However, remembering this was his first run of the year and that he was conceding 3lbs to the other two, he is the one to draw the eye. However, without disqualifying the first two, it was hard to know what other action the stewards could take.

But this was Ireland and they found an alternative. Someone had a brainstorm and decided to disqualify Ebanoran in favour of Fascinating Rock, but to allow Ebanoran to keep second ahead of the one horse that was most inconvenienced by the shenanigans, namely Geoffrey Chaucer.

That as I write is the full story. It may not be the complete story. There may be a reversal of some sort later behind closed doors and when the Bushmills has been diluted.

The Ludlow starter may find gainful employment in the public sector. Oh, and Catcall – the villain of many a piece – won at Longchamp.

Quite a day!

Perhaps the last person to leave will turn out the lights…

GOOD FRIDAY RACING…

The heading would have been unthinkable two years ago; now that the precedent has been set it seems safe to assume this time next year we will be seeing a normal program of racing on a day that was once regarded as sacred.

So does it matter? Probably not; after all those that wish to observe Easter as a religious occasion are free to do so. And if the big high street stores, the supermarkets and the DIY chains can open their doors, why should there not be racing?

That is a compelling argument. It is unfortunate for stable staff, even for jockeys that they can no longer rely on at least one blank day after the generous three days granted to them over the Christmas period. But in pursuit of the greater ideal, it seems the show must go on.

There is just one point I should like to make. Before we reach the situation where there is a card from Catterick, jumping from Cartmel and eight races run under the floodlights at Wolverhampton on Good Friday, the authorities have seen fit to provide a bumper card at Lingfield with prize-money to match. Even Musselburgh stages a financially healthy card.

Effectively, and continuing the Roman theme prevalent to the story that comprised events that spawned the celebration known as Easter two-thousand years ago, frantic to stage racing under any circumstances, bookmakers have made racing an offer it can’t refuse.

Any visitors from Mars could be forgiven for thinking that horse racing is blessed with riches aplenty, and that owning a racehorse might be a good move. Of course if they stick around long enough they will see the folly of this supposition.

So just where has this money suddenly come from? Those that have tirelessly bemoaned the state of British racing – claiming there is too much of it, particularly at the lower end – are left scratching their heads. In order to fulfil an unspecified brief – it was generally accepted that for racing to go ahead on Good Friday it would have to be of a decent standard – bookmakers have raided the petty cash tin. It will be interesting to see if this standard can be sustained next year and beyond.

Lingfield kick off inauspiciously enough with an apprentice handicap; but it is not just any old apprentice handicap – here Corals provide a Class 2 apprentice handicap. From a betting point of view it does not make it any easier than one of those fictitious events from Happy Downs, but the winner gets an unprecedented thirty grand.

32Red are the next generous sponsor when thirty-five minutes later we are faced with a conditions affair restricted to fillies and mares – which of course is the sting in the tail.

As if a field of fourteen racing over seven furlongs does not sufficiently complicate the issue for punters, they have to deal with what is often the wildest card of all: that of the uncertainty of the fairer equine sex. Deep joy! At least it will be for winning connections that will receive the thick end of ninety grand.

Similar money is available in the next – the 32Red All-Weather 3 Year Old Championships Conditions Stakes.

This is not an unreasonable title for a race that includes Ertijaal, already a winner over course and distance and that was once touted as a live Guineas prospect. Stranger things have happened, although on the scant evidence to hand, he may struggle to stay further than today’s trip of seven furlongs.

American Hope, Major Crispies and Sir Robert Cheval were not far behind Ertijaal last time, although they will be lucky to get as close now unless Ertijaal is against the idea of putting his best hoof forward on such an occasion. Add the unbeaten and potentially poorly-drawn Passing Star to the mix along with the progressive duo that is Complicit and Captain Secret and the race stacks up.

There is no sign of the money drying up in the marathon conditions stakes – again ninety grand seems to have been found from an offshore account. Apparently connections of Litigant have had their eyes on this pot for some time, the six-year-old having been laid out for money he would otherwise struggle to win.

A class 2 over six furlongs follows at just after four o’clock. In their generosity, those bookmakers that have thrown up prices choose to offer 5’s the field.

A late defector from the Lincoln on account of ground worries, Captain Cat will chase his share of ninety grand in the race sponsored by our old friend and benefactor to racing – Ladbrokes.

In another life they once courted my services at a meeting in Central London, where their representative saw fit to buy me an orange juice and a beef sandwich. There was no ticket to Bermuda tucked inside a napkin – no offer from a waitress in fishnets to provide anything I might want. It was hardly Don Corleone stuff.

Sensing their actual contribution told me all I needed to know about them as a firm, I declined Ladbrokes’ offer to provide me with gainful employment. The jury is out as to which one of us is the poorer or richer for this decision. I might be tempted to poach a little more than a beef sandwich from them if they offer the general 5/1 that seems likely to be available about Captain Cat tomorrow. You see, I have fallen for the trap!

The jaws lock at 5.20 with the Coral Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championship. Here, 8lbs clear of his nearest rivals on official ratings, Grandeur is the projected favourite.

However, he has already displayed one or two tendencies to make punters hesitate. Good though his overall record might be, he often finds little in his races and his best runs – often achieved on the world racing stage – are arguably in defeat.

There is a suspicion he does not relish a scrap. With over a hundred grand on offer it is very likely that Solar Diety, Dick Doughtywylie, Robins Hoods Bay (not sure to confirm his latest victory with several of these) and Marshgate Lane will do their utmost to ensure Grandeur does not get things his own way.

Perhaps he ought to join the queue.

EXPLODING THE SYSTEM MYTH

I know a man with a clever mathematical brain. Unfortunately he is a one-trick pony as his cleverness starts and ends with the subject of mathematics.

Actually, that is not strictly true. The product of a classical education, he knows a host of grammatical rules that many may have forgotten, such as that the verb To Be cannot have an object, also the difference between relative and conditional clauses. I’ll save you from some of the other differentials he is able to define – such as possessive and personal pronouns, the likes of which some of us can implement without resorting to a parrot-fashion recital.

My clever friend illustrates the contrast between those that have a natural ability to tackle a subject and those that bury their heads in a book on theory but never progress beyond first base. I am not decrying education by any means here.

Those that were lucky enough to benefit from the system will always shine. The Ann Widdecombes of this world sound very clever in speech (never confusing It is I with It is Me for example), but one wonders how far such theory takes them in the real world.

After all, you can always recruit someone as your ghost-writer, but first you have to produce something that is worthy of such a process. Enter many with lesser educations who can write wonderful prose that may be rough round the edges but carries a real essence often lacking by those tackling the written word without passion.

Real talent cannot be manufactured but it can be nurtured and improved. The likes of Paul Simon and Bruce Springsteen had to be Paul Simon and Bruce Springsteen in the first place to become the people we know today.

You may be wondering what all this has to do with horse racing. To tell the truth I am beginning to wonder myself, but actually there is a connection.

Mathematics is only the diffusion of fact after all. Impeccable grammar is achieved by similar means: the ability to break down and analyse a sentence, so once it is constructed it makes perfect sense without ambiguity.

Wake up at the back!

What I am leading to is the contention that there is a big difference from saying you are something and actually being it.

These days most people are long on theory and short on practice. Every mother’s son is a manager of some sort; every person on a quiz show has a long title associated with their job.

As a refreshing change, don’t you just love Chris Hughes from Eggheads, who makes no bones about his roots as a ‘retired train driver and railway worker’ but can lay claim to being one of the most knowledgeable people in the country?

Success in Life

There is no short cut to success in any sphere, whether as a train driver or a boffin. For those wishing to excel, two components are necessary: talent and hard work. You can get by on one, but without both you will always fall short of excellence.

For those of you still with me, we are approaching the point.

Successful Gambling

Gambling is the last refuge of the lazy man. Gambling offers the lure of easy money without too much hard work; or so some theorists would have us believe.

I have lost track of the number of times my mathematical friend has presented a system before me that he claimed was his next ticket to the Caribbean.

The last one – a year or so ago if memory serves me; I have told him to stop wasting my time with them – was as simple and devoid of any logic as this: back any two-year-old up to June with the form figures of 112 that is between 4/1 and 7/1 in the betting forecast.

Note the amount of provisos built into this so-called system. It falls flat from the outset – the form figures mean nothing on their own. Why does the system cease in June and why is the price of the horse limited; and from where is this price supposed to be taken – the Morning Star perhaps?

The bad news is that, like everything else, gambling demands hard labour from those desirous of success (or avoiding failure, which in this business often amounts to the same thing).

There is no short cut to success in this game, where, to quote Bruce Forsyth, points do not make prizes. True, you might scoop the jackpot in one form or another, but the odds against that are too huge to contemplate and any such luck is unsustainable.

For those living on this planet – the only way to succeed is to have a natural flair for the subject combined with the drive to keep working.

For that reason I become aggrieved when I read of so-called mathematicians and system analysts that claim to have cracked the system.

They are wasting their time, more importantly ours. Even if figures suggest these systems work, they only do so in retrospect. Wittingly or unwittingly, they have been tailored to fit existing results. And as we all know, we can only bet on eventualities yet to occur. In short, there is no all-encompassing system that leads to a path of gold.

Not only that, there is no path of gold.

Any system can appear to work given a set of results. It can be tweaked and adjusted to suit those results, but it has as much relevance as someone suggesting it is possible to predict the next sequence of numbers on a roulette wheel. Such a sequence is totally random, so whilst adding the sum of the last fifty paying numbers and dividing by the sum total of those that were unsuccessful may have been relevant in one undetermined sequence, it will never work in another.

Nor will the claim that after a prolonged series of one or other colour (red or black) an overdue change is imminent and that is the time to bet against the current flow. The flaw in that argument is two-fold. Firstly, in order to provide a profit, the backer will need (at odds of even-money) to double-up on stakes if the first bet struck loses.

Secondly, and possibly more importantly, for those espousing the benefits of the Laws of Probability, the spin of the roulette wheel, like the sequence in horse racing, is infinite; therefore there is never a cut-off point at which one can claim the sequence ends.

Any set of results is open to alteration, although certain constants exist (50% red and black will roughly prevail – but over an indefinite number of spins).

Like the turn of a card on the green baize or the roll of a ball-bearing in a roulette wheel, every horse race is a unique event. Its components are always different, that applies to its players, both human and equine.

Therefore no set of situations will ever be replicated. There will be an approximation of elements, but they will never be identical. This means results cannot be predicted on a regular basis by a computer or when the moon is in the third quarter and Mars on the assent.

Yes, computers can correctly pinpoint horses that are well-in according to official figures, but such horses still have to face optimum conditions in order to win.

There is no point in backing a horse that is technically well-treated if it faces ground it hates.

Computers, or more precisely their programs, can identify other factors in a horse’s favour but those drawn badly or those that have not run for a length of time (unless we know why and that they are fighting fit) are unlikely winners.

Those racing in handicaps for the first time and facing seasoned handicappers are at a disadvantage, as are so-called unlucky losers that have been raised by the assessor on an assumption rather than proven fact.

Punters have more information at their disposal than ever these days. All this information can be built into a finalised solution but it is not the answer per se.

In the final analysis, stripping away all the peripheral information to hand, punters have to be able to use their own judgement and that judgement has to be accurate and reliable. And that is the only criterion by which those that eke out a living in this business survive.

As for those claiming to have a successful system, before climbing aboard this money train might I suggest you ask them one question for starters.

Winners get banned. Losers get diaries

Ask them if they were given a racing diary by their bookmaker this year. If they have one, bear in mind that bookmakers don’t give diaries to punters that are successful.

No, their present to successful punters is to suspend their