And Another Thing

October 2008

Drunk horse breathalysed

FRIDAY NIGHT and it has been a wretched day. It looked tricky, typical backend stuff this morning and I managed to keep my head until about midday. I fancied a couple of big-priced horses a bit but to be honest I could not really see them winning. But what are you to do when horses you think might win are three times the price their chances represent?

The answer is simple enough to be provided by your average schoolchild. If you only think they might or could win, you do not back them for serious money. The most you do is to have a lottery-type wager and if your luck is in fine; if not have a few less sherbets in the evening and retire to fight another day.

Well that was my intention but then messages started to trickle in at Cheltenham and I fell for them. Bang: out goes Razor Royale when travelling like a possible winner at the infamous second-last. Crunch: Donaldson loses his hind legs at the second hurdle and thereafter a horse universally considered well handicapped had forfeited whatever advantage he possessed. Spacious was too big and I backed her to win. Except she wasn’t and she didn’t and a day that should have cost a few bob ended up as a rotten example of what not to do.

I am not moaning. This is more a redressing of a balance. In the past, I have often crowed after a winning day. I hope it has not come across as such but no one really wants to hear about success. What we want is tales from the bottom of the glass. That is what we can relate to; and to be fair we all talk a good race when we know the result. So let me be honest: today I lost good money. I should have lost small but I lost more than that and that only goes to show that all the fancy talking and theorising in the world will not build the perfect betting beast. None of us is immune from the pitfalls that we all know we should avoid but that from time to time ensnare us. I think it is what is known as being human.

Tomorrow is the last big day of the year. The remaining pieces of the two-year-old jigsaw are slotted into position with the running of the Dewhurst and we have the Champion Stakes and the Cesarewitch. Now I cannot be the only person who is full of bravado the night before a meeting but senses his confidence slipping away with the passing of each hour. So tonight, buoyed up by a Jack Daniels and a small lager, I can confidently make the following predictions. Tomorrow I shall be under the sofa covering my eyes as they run these races; but for now, this is how I see it.

I reckon the first race is triple tricky. I do not like him, but it is possible Cat Junior may need this reduction in trip and that we may see him at his best here. He has Stimulation and the in-form Il Warrd to beat. At this stage, no bet.

As a specimen, Rip Van Winkle looks like a top class racehorse. However, Dewhursts are not won in the paddock and his form falls short of the required standard. Next year maybe, but for now, his price is ludicrously short so it is either Delegator or Huntdown.

The Champion Stakes is no such thing. I am sorry to say this, but in recent years it has struggled to maintain its status in the calendar. This year is no exception. The best horse is New Approach who should therefore win. Twice Over is apparently working well. This gives his unfortunate Guineas backers a chance to say I told you so. However, quickening ground and a fast pace may not be ideal for a horse whose distance has yet to be established.

Crazily, I am of the opinion that the day’s best bet is in the Cesarewitch. I fancy Liberate strongly. In first time cheek pieces and guaranteed a strong pace which will suit him admirably, I feel he can take advantage of a lenient mark. He may well have won the Ascot Stakes had they gone a bit faster and Jamie Spencer knows him well. I think I will knock off the 10/1! As for Askar Tau; yes, he is a serious contender but he has never encountered this sort of opposition and taking WFA into account has to concede 8lbs to Liberate.

Now that I am rolling into the history books, I shall leave the Rockfel but watch Marquesa with interest. She was just over four lengths behind the Marcel Boussac winner Proportional; therefore, she provides some sort of form line for those who think they saw next year’s 1,000 Guineas winner at Longchamp.

Back to a mile-and-a-half, Unsung Heroine should win the Group 2 for fillies and Host Nation looks an interesting recruit to these shores having run well at Group level in France. I presume this a prep run of sorts for a jumping campaign though so can only watch. But by this time, one way or the other I should be beyond caring.

See – easy is it not!

I cannot let this article pass without reference to one or two other events outside my own sad little world. Paddy Power have come to the conclusion that Barack Obama has won the American Presidential Race and are paying out seventeen days before the official result is known. This seems a silly thing to do. They say a week is a long time in politics. A week is seven days. That infers that seventeen days are almost three times as long. What if somebody takes a pot-shot at Obama and puts him in hospital or worse? America is no stranger to that sort of thing. Last year an American told me that there was no way his country would vote a woman or a black man into office. Well the woman ensured her own demise. As for the black man, I reminded him that no one had a problem with Morgan Freeman being president in The Day After Tomorrow. I think that was when our conversation ended. But pre-empting even what looks like a foregone conclusion in politics is notoriously dicey. Paddy Power may have done this for the publicity. Just to even it up, they seem to have a record of offering distasteful odds. I am thinking of betting on the next airline to go bust, the next Pope and other such nonsensical outcomes. Surely, some things are off-limits. How about betting on the next bookmaker to go broke?

Finally, horses have been making the news in unusual ways this week. Apparently a pony called Fat Boy (no, not the one trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam) became so intoxicated on fermented apples that he blundered into a swimming pool in Cornwall. This horrified the owner who watched as he splashed around in a mad frenzy. Perhaps it was Peter Chapple-Hyam then! The story did have a happy-ending as the horse was rescued and is currently in the next bed to Amy Winehouse in rehab.

Another drunken horse was less fortunate. In Romania, he was arrested and breathalysed after striking a man who was seated on a bench trying to work out how to fill in his application for an entry visa into Britain. It transpired the horse had been given a liberal dose of alcohol by his owners in the hope it would improve his looks prior to an impending sale. I have tried that lads; take it from me – it does not work. You might think it does, but it doesn’t.

And in Ipswich, a funeral procession had to be halted when a horse-drawn carriage overturned after one of the horses (sober this time) spooked.

So, quite a week for the beast on which many an empire has been won and lost and now exacts revenge for years of exploitation by beguiling punters into believing it is about to do what it has no intention of doing.

Time for a spot of Liberation!

Or should that be libation?