£28,400 profit! Week 4 Results

Blimey! What a week eh?

Percentage wise results were lousy. A poxy 2 winners which is way below average. Nevertheless we cleared a stunning profit of 284 Points! … an amazing £28,400 at my £100 a point!! or £5,680 at £20 a point which I’m guessing as being closer to the average stake you might consider?

So how the heck did we make so much when we had so few winners? Well fundamentally it’s because I vary the stakes according to how good the bet is. Please understand that doesn’t necessarily mean according to how likely the selection is to win. It’s based on the PROFIT I estimate in the bet.

So our best bet, close to a rare maximum was a massive 40 points each way on Faraway Flower. You may well have looked twice when you received the text because it was the biggest bet we’ve had in the 4 weeks of the trail. Maybe you were wondering why?

In a nutshell the forecasted odds on favourite in the race Peters Gift was beaten into 3rd was by a horse of Barry Hills called Golden Rosie. My contacts told me Faraway Flower is a much better filly than Golden Rosie based on home gallops. So we had a great situation where we had a horse that was better than Golden Rosie at home … and she’d already beaten the favourite, Peters Gift! You don’t get much closer to a “lock” than that!

Of course it was Faraway Flower’s debut run and horses often need a race to put them straight mentally and they get the idea of it. Many horses run “green” first time out ie they might get scared by the crowd, or stop running when they hit the front, or any one of a number of other inexperienced errors. You work them as much as you can at home but a real race teaches them a ton. Nevertheless if a horse is working well at home it’s more likely to run well that one who works badly! That’s one reason why I bet her each way. Plus I also knew she’d done plenty of work and was less likely than most to run green.

Many people think an each way bet is weaker than a win. It couldn’t be further from the truth. If Faraway Flower had been a 6/4 favourite I might have only had 20 points win. But at 5/1 I wanted to absolutely lump on each way so had double that bet! Partly it was tremendous value and we had a huge edge. And partly because I couldn’t see him out of the frame! Looked like a “bet to nothing” to me!

Questions … A couple of questions I’ve been asked which might be helpful to all

Is there a site that compares best odds?

Yep, I use www.oddschecker.co.uk. The bookies on it are reliable and so your money should be safe. I’ve bet with them all, (under numerous identities!) they all close you eventually though!

What happens when you start betting £100 a point?

You WILL be closed down. When you win big the bookies will ban you. The only solution is to open new accounts in friend’s names! Enjoy the wins and then move on and bash a new bookie!

FREE COPY of ARBITRAGE REPORT

If you’ve requested this report it’ll be ready in about 3 weeks. Many thanks too for all the kind comments received about the new service.

In case you hadn’t thought about arbitrage as an additional string to your bow and you don’t have a large tank to bet with. You’ll notice almost every horse I bet shortens quite a bit? Well you can make a small sure profit every race by simply betting the horse at a big price … and then laying it off on one of the exchanges when it shortens. I’m writing a step by step BLUEPRINT on how to do this  … and maximise profits. It’ll retail for around £30 but if you’d like one of the first copies let me know.

Yours sincerely

Bob Rothman