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Warm Regards
Bob Rothman
Stacking The Odds in Your Favour
SATURDAY DECEMBER 21st
ASCOT TIPS
3.35:
As you would expect for the prize-money, this is a tough handicap with plenty of possibilities.
Nicky Henderson fields two with real chances in the improvingRolling Star and Chatterbox.
Despite Barry Geraghty’s apparent preference for the former, Chatterbox shaped really well last time at Newbury after a well documented setback and could easily turn out to be the better of the two at these weights. Certainly his chance does not need arguing based on last season’s form. He is seen as holding the best chance of those at the top of the weights as improvement from Newbury is likely.
Flaxen Flare probably has a few pounds too many but should run a race.
Fellow Irish raider, City Slicker has to be respected but, with only limited hurdling experience, faces a stiff task against much better company than he has so far encountered.
Dell’ Arca is another dark horse that is raised 8lbs for his Greatwood win and could easily make his presence felt. Of those lurking at the foot of the handicap,
Totalize has been granted an opportunity by the handicapper with a mark of 131. Relative inexperience in such a cut and thrust handicap is something of a concern but he does have a chance at the weights (particularly with Flaxen Flare after a decent effort at last year’s Festival). He should be fit from a recent Flat outing and would surely not be making the journey south if less than match-fit or not carrying a modicum of stable confidence.
Flying in the face of common sense, Chatterbox may lift this, whilst a prominent showing is expected from the stoutly-bred Totalize.
LINGFIELD TIPS
2.35:
It seems fair to say Gatewood has not progressed since a highly encouraging return to action in this country at Doncaster in September.
He is capable of winning this but it is becoming a long time between drinks for him. Sure be thereabouts, he has most to fear from a possibly revitalised Tales Of Grimm, who got no run here last time. Once again the draw has not been kind to Tales Of Grimm, but with a reasonable slice of luck in running he rates a big danger.
CHELTENHAM
FRIDAY DECEMBER 13th
(posted Thursday 5.30pm)
12.30:
All things being equal this looks like a two-horse race. Oscar Whisky made a satisfactory fencing debut here last month in a muddling race won by Tarquin Du Seuil.
As he receives 8lbs from his main rival, Newbury winner Wonderful Charm, it is tempting to believe that may make the difference.
These two are chalk and cheese. Wonderful Charm is more of a chasing type that may lack the class of Oscar Whisky, but there is the small matter of the fences threatening to even the contest out. With bookmakers sure to bet tight, there is little percentage in punters’ favour.
1.05:
It is a struggle to uncover an obviously well-handicapped runner here, although two that have raced in Ireland look to have possibilities. Both Friendly Society and Hit The Headlines have chasing experience and may be capable of better than we have seen.
2.10:
Theatre Guide looks a reasonable selection having put up such a giant effort in the Hennessy a fortnight ago. His claims are obvious and providing the run does not come too soon after his Newbury exertions, he is hard to get away from.
3.45:
The card ends as it starts with a novice event, this time seemingly resting between three candidates in previous winners and therefore penalised: Ballyalton, Doctor Harper and Garde La Victoire.
The last named was very impressive last time at Warwick when sauntering away from previous winner Gone Too Far. There seems no reason why we should not take that run literally, in which case Garde La Victoire is taken to shade what should be an informative event.
SATURDAY
DECEMBER 7th
(posted Friday 5.45pm)
It seems we have made it to the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown without incident. Despite Russia’s best attempt at sabotage via a severe mid-week weather front sweeping in from Siberia, the worst is behind us – at least for now.
Staying with the Soviet theme, as always this is a good meeting full of quality and intrigue, but its twists and turns are possibly more suited to a John Le Carre Cold War novel.
1.50:
Taquin Du Seuil lays Arkle pretensions on the line in the Henry VIII Novice Chase.
A determined winner at Cheltenham last time from Oscar Whisky, he gets a chance to take this next step up the ladder.
Second in this event last year to Captain Conan, Hinterland is certainly useful but has not progressed beyond that standard and threatens to be vulnerable once again.
Grandouet, notably a hurdler, needs to improve his jumping to become competitive in this company, whilst well regarded Balder Succes is hard to assess and could be anything.
One mistake could change the complexion of this but, assuming Taquin Du Seuil jumps with the same aplomb as we saw at Cheltenham last time, he looks like the one to beat.
2.25:
After his latest run in a competitive Cheltenham event won by handicap blot Quick Jack, Deep Trouble looks poised to go one better in this listed handicap. He faces several rivals with progressive profiles but looks sure to run his race.
3.00:
The Tingle Creek should only concern Sire De Grugy and Captain Conan, both of whom have won over fences on this track. Talk of Somersby being able to mix it on these terms at this level has so far proved wide of the mark. The same is likely to be the case again. For some reason Sire De Grugy never looked at ease last time at Cheltenham, risking life and limb with some chancy leaps in the closing stages when second to an on-song Kid Cassidy.
From a stable in form, he has every chance but does have two lengths to find on Captain Conan on their running in the Arkle Trial run at Cheltenham this time last year. It promises to be a tight contest.
HENNESSY GOLD CUP DAY
NEWBURY – November 30th
1.50:
After four reasonable efforts over hurdles, Gassin Golf looks tempting in this Class 2 handicap.
It may not look an obvious race in which to break his duck, but as he receives the best part of two stone from many people’s idea of the winner, Gibb River, and sits at the foot of the handicap, this could be the day for an eagle shot.
Providing he does not bounce, from his last winning mark Gibb River has every chance, although it is never easy to lug big weights successfully in these events.
Other question marks pepper this event: Batonnier returns from two years on the sidelines; Punjabi is undeniably well-in if you delve far enough back; but at the age of ten, it is hard to be positive.
Don’t Be Late was an improver when last seen, but along with The Bear Trap – who looks the handicap plot – has yet to encounter opposition of this class. The list goes on, but if you cherry-pick the best of Gassin Golf’s form, a case can be constructed.
3.00:
The handicapper seems to hold sway in the Hennessy.
Class act Rocky Creek is reported to be in tip-top shape for this his debut of the year. A classy chaser with form to back up his claims, he is possibly the one to beat. He would be interesting if carrying a few pounds less.
Those of a similar profile – Houblon Des Obeaux and Lord Windermere – have the same mountain to scale.
Cloudy Too faces his stiffest test and also enters unknown territory as regards trip.
After such an absence, Invictus needs to wind back the clock but has a definite chance from a handicap perspective.
Our Father has a documented record of going best when fresh. Again, he seems to have plenty to do from his current mark.
In addition, late news on Friday night suggests Timmy Murphy (unexpectedly rushed to hospital before the last race after apparently feeling unwell) may not be fit to ride. Rocky Creek looks like the one to take aim at without appealing as a bet at the price.
PS Note from Bob.
A good friend who is a commission agent has also placed money on Super Duty at 20/1 for a stable contact. Obviously a very tough race and rather like the Grand National it’s one where you may be tempted to bet several decent priced horses EW for small stakes. Good luck.
NEWBURY WINTER FESTIVAL
DAY TWO (Friday).
(posted Thursday afternoon)
1.30:
Lightly raced Western Warhorse has a progressive look to him and is taken to justify being the sole selection on Friday’s card.
Having won at Chepstow before battling on up the Cheltenham hill behind Home Run last time when decent handicappers were behind, he looks handily weighted against this opposition.
Minella For Steak and, if able to translate improved Flat form to hurdles, Chiberta King represent two possible dangers in a minefield of a handicap, but Western Warhorse could be too good.
THE HENNESSY HERITAGE FESTIVAL
Thursday Nov 28th,
Posted Wed Evening
The Racecourse Newbury – as it likes to call itself these days – stages Day 1 of its Hennessy Heritage Festival tomorrow – Thursday, November 28th. It’s quite a mouthful.
Most racing folk will simply be going to Newbury racecourse for the Hennessy meeting, but perhaps all this rebranding is something to do with the fact the racecourse is building over a thousand new homes on its property.
Clocking in with the first event at 12.25, Day One starts early. Nicky Henderson should open up proceedings when his Volnay De Thaix bids to supplement a facile Kempton win in the cut-up Bet 365 Class 3 novice.
Saddled with a Press Association price of 1/12 in most overnight papers, no one will be getting rich on the strength of this predictable piece of forecasting though. Volnay De Thaix has already scored twice in France and should make light of an 8lbs penalty.
I wish I could reveal a tasty bet on the card. With seven races you would think there ought to be one lurking somewhere, and, who knows, maybe there is… answers in an email please.
The closest I can come is Chatterbox in the Bet 365 Intermediate Hurdle (Listed Handicap) run at 3.15. To give it its alternative title, this race is registered as the Gerry Feilden Hurdle. I have a feeling Large Action is one of its past winners but don’t write in if I am mistaken. I am frequently mistaken about one thing or another these days.
So to get back to Chatterbox in the listed handicap: he looks an interesting prospect, not just in this, but in general.
He might be the sort his powerful stable will consider for the Betfair Hurdle (or, as Boylesports put it, if you’re really old the Schweppes Hurdle).
As for his immediate mission, he now returns to the track and trip responsible for his two wins to date. Having beaten My Tent Or Yours in December last year, he then routed a useful field of novices under a penalty in February. This was followed by a respectable fourth behind The New One in the Neptune at Cheltenham over a trip probably in excess of his best.
The 3lbs he receives from Puffin Billy could be crucial, meaning a bigger threat could be posed by the unexposed and lightly-raced Get Back In Line.
In all, from this quarter it’s a tentative start to the meeting. There are three days after all…
SATURDAY’S RACING
NOVEMBER 23RD
(posted Friday lunchtime)
Despite Ascot, Haydock’s card, peppered with established and rising stars, takes centre stage.
12.45:
Four-year-old Far West is first in the spotlight. Caught out by the progressive Melodic Rendezvous in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton a fortnight ago, but ahead of market rival Rolling Star in the Triumph, he appears poised to take the Class 2 Intermediate Hurdle.
1.50:
This looks like a hot handicap. Unexposed dual-winner More Of That was impressive at Wetherby on what was his reappearance and only his second start. Raised 7lbs for that and a proven operator in the soft, he could easily be better than we have seen, but will need to be against some testing opposition.
Chief opponent could prove to be Zuider Zee, sharpened up after a decent first run of the season at Huntingdon eleven days ago. Once again, the ground will present no problem to this son of Sakhee.
3.00:
The big race of the day is the Grade 1 Betfair Chase – at this stage a mini-Gold Cup and certainly something of a dress rehearsal for Cheltenham.
Current Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth – who runs well when fresh – defends his chasing crown against last year’s winner of this, Silviniaco Conti, considered by many to have been unlucky at Cheltenham when coming down at the third-last. He was still travelling strongly at the time and a subsequent tame effort at Aintree, when he looked below par, should be ignored. With positive messages emanating from both camps, this rematch should prove informative.
After suffering his only defeat in the Jewson at the Festival, Dynaste completed a highly encouraging first season over the big obstacles with Grade 2 victory at Aintree. This represents a major test against top-class opposition; although he needs to find more now, he deserves a place in the line-up.
Long Run can apparently be forgiven his latest defeat in the Charlie Hall due to a bad scope, but it could be argued he comes up short at the highest level.
Cue Card is an unlikely winner. His record to date suggests 2m 4f is his best trip, so an extended 3m here looks unsuitable for a horse that may not be good enough in any case.
Tidal Bay and The Giant Bolster make up the numbers without appearing likely to trouble the judge.
Roi Du Mee does stay well and handles this sort of ground; although, as yet, gives no indication he will deal with opposition of this calibre.
So it’s perm any one from three: Bobs Worth, Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste with bookmakers apparently safely installed in the driving seat.
SATURDAY NOVEMBER 16th
Horse Racing Tips
Lingfield Tips
1.25:
Thewandaofu’s claims for favouritism rest on her dubious fifth in the Rockfel to Al Thakhira – who admittedly was out of her depth at Santa Anita but still made no show there.
The Newmarket form looked flaky at the time so a hike from 77(which looked a reasonable mark for Thewandaofu based on all other efforts) to an elevation of 90 seems an overreaction.
With only a Kempton maiden win to her name and having been subsequently beaten at Southwell and Bath before finishing second off 73 in a nursery, her overall form suggests – unless we take the Newmarket form literally and believe she has suddenly made enormous improvement – she is only a mid-seventies filly.
That being the case Epic Voyage makes much more appeal. A solid second on his only outing to Postponed at Yarmouth (winner went on to chase home useful Oklahoma City in valuable sales race at Newmarket, whilst the third was a decent second next time and the fourth has won twice since),
Epic Voyage has a more promising profile and can take advantage of what appears to be an overrated filly.
2.35:
Prince Alzain has the credentials to win this and is taken to get the better of his main, and it is tempting to think, only serious rival – the revitalised Tales Of Grimm.
The latter should reverse recent form with Highland Knight on revised terms. Although it is likely to be tight, Prince Alzain, who is particularly effective on a synthetic surface, gets the call.
Cheltenham Tips
12.40:
The card opens with the first real test of the season for juvenile hurdlers. The line-up looks strong with Azza, Herod The Great, Guitar Pete and Royal Irish Hussar all having rattled off early victories.
The last named – an Aidan O’Brien reject – is a potentially classy recruit to hurdling whose jumping is not bullet-proof as yet, although it improved markedly after a clumsy first round effort at Market Rasen when last witnessed at Wetherby. Cheltenham will expose any weakness in that department but he is in good hands and remains an interesting prospect.
However, today’s opposition, which includes French-import and three-time winner Art Mauresque (representing last year’s winning combination) is another potential danger in a race probably best watched with an eye on the future.
1.15:
Experience could be the key factor here as, despite a 3lbs penalty, White Star Line, placed over fences at the Festival, faces several raw recruits. Le Bec and Shutthefrontdoor look no more than promising at this stage; whilst African Gold faces the larger obstacles for the first time.
White Star Line appears at his best over three miles – attempts beyond that trip have resulted in him being beaten a fair way. Possibly short on speed, having mixed it in decent company, his jumping makes him an attractive proposition against rivals that have plenty to prove.
1.50:
This extended three miles may assist Spring Heeled to pull out a little extra, meaning he could just be ahead of the handicapper right now.
A safe jumper who lines up here with a decent level of Irish form to his credit, he should go well. We do have to take his ability to stay this trip on trust, but he represents connections that know the time of day and the jockey booking adds confidence.
2.30:
As ever, the Paddy Power Chase presents punters with problems aplenty. It is possible to make cases for any number of the runners and the race does have a ‘whose turn is it today?’ look to it.
Without labouring the point, in a first time visor, Astracad makes some appeal from the right end of the handicap after a decent effort last time at Aintree.
Summary
Lingfield supplies the best betting opportunity of the day withEpic Voyage in the 1.25.
Prince Alzain has every chance in the 2.35.
From a betting perspective, Cheltenham is difficult enough.White Star Line is seen as a value alternative to some higher-profiled but less experienced rivals in the 1.15.
Spring Heeled and Astracad are no more than selections in their respective races.
Bob: A few thoughts for tomorrow …
CHELTENHAM TIPS
FRIDAY 15th November
We are off for the first of three days of the Paddy Power meeting.
Bizarrely, the best bet on Day One seems to come in the opening event at 1.05, where Badger Ale winner, Standing Ovation, turned out again under a 7lbs penalty, looks undeniably well-in.
He really ought to win this and given the nature of the race may even start a bigger price than he is entitled to.
His rider is capable enough and it is inescapable that Standing Ovation is receiving weight from opponents he should be conceding it to.
Following anticipated success it what looks like a soft target here, it would not be the biggest surprise were he to be supplemented for the Hennessy at the end of the month. Watch this space…
1.35:
Eastlake looks like a progressive type who continues to thrive. To a degree he is a lazy tip but they all count and he looks sure to play a big part in this having only been raised 5lbs for an Aintree win last month.
2.40:
Upswing is another with a similar early season profile to the preceding selections, although he faces a stiffer task. In a race full of potential improvers, Warden Hill is lightly-raced over timber and may be capable of consolidating a highly promising reappearance run at Kempton last time with a major effort in this company.
Bob, thoughts and selections for tomorrow, Cheers, Spy
SATURDAY NOVEMBER 9TH
(posted Friday afternoon)
Doncaster Horse Racing Tips
12.40:
Penny Drops stands out after a promising debut at Goodwood, which was followed by an improved effort in a listed event at Newmarket last week. There she was arguably unlucky not to have nearly won when a squeezed-up second to Cape Factor. She should be too good now returned to an ordinary maiden.
1.15:
A winner over 6f in soft, identical conditions should suit Black Caesar who is now dropped 2lb after his latest run over 7f when leaving the impression he failed to get home. As the chosen representative from his powerful stable that fielded a strong five-day entry, he lines up with every chance.
However, in a race that may only concern a few runners, Penina looks potentially well-treated after what was admittedly a flattering fourth to easy winner Aeolus last time.
However, she failed to obtain the clearest of runs (would not have troubled the winner) and the form is bolstered by the second horse, the twice-subsequently scoring Musical Comedy, who was only half-a-length ahead of the filly.
Penina could easily capitalise from a lowly mark of 66 and along with Black Caesar, these look like the two contenders to concentrate on.
1.50:
Favourite Treat is an unexposed contender. After a good effort last time against older horses he looks on an upward curve.
He returns to soft/heavy ground – the surface he scored on when dotting up in a Chepstow maiden by a wide margin. He is potentially well-treated against the usual suspects.
These exclude Magistral who lines up with a similar profile to the selection. Turned out quickly after a decent effort at Newmarket last week, he is clearly in good heart and interesting, but this drop back to 7f may not be ideal.
2.25:
Jack Dexter is the obvious one to beat here but in-form Highland Colori, last year’s winner Eton Rifles and Hallelujah are three obvious dangers along with others likely to pose problems.
3.35:
Conduct was well-backed when a staying on third at York over 1m 2f last time and will surely appreciate this step up to 1m 4f. Representing a stable in fine end-of-season form, and from the same mark as last time, after only two runs this season he lines up fresher than most and is hard to get away from.
Conclusion:
12.40: Penny Drops ought to win but will be short and should only be considered in those miracle multiple bets. It may not be significant, but she was starting to go in her coat last week.
1.15: Penina looks temptingly treated by the assessor. A small bet is advised with a saver on Black Caesar.
1.50: Favourite Treat could be going places and is the call in this hard handicap.
3.35: Conduct is another that looks to hold a clear-cut chance in a competitive event.
SATURDAY NOVEMBER 2ND
(posted 5.10pm Friday afternoon)
Newmarket Tips and analysis
1.10:
Having beaten yesterday’s maiden winner Idder by over five lengths at Nottingham last time, Montaly looks a serious opponent to likely odds-on shot Hartnell in the listed contest over ten furlongs. After only two runs the stoutly-bred, Montaly is open to improvement.
This trip in soft ground threatens to provide a slog for two-year-olds but the market leaders are bred for it and to an extent have already demonstrated an ability to stay well. By Authorized, who has had a mixed season, Hartnell won on heavy ground last time over a mile and is clearly the one to aim at.
A proven ability to handle soft ground could be crucial on a day when the ground is likely to be as yielding as it gets at Newmarket.
1.45:
After a clear-cut victory at Leicester on debut, Surcingle, lines up in the listed event as a filly loaded with promise.
However, these opponents represent a considerable rise in quality to those she encountered last time. A tall filly by Empire Maker (often an influence for a soft ground preference), she stayed the trip of a mile well on debut and has an action that suggests easy ground will suit. At this juncture, speed does not seem to be her biggest asset.
Majeyda has to overcome a 3lbs penalty and comes into this on the back of form exposed as below Group standard.
Surcingle could be good enough to take this hike in grade in her stride, but Rosehill Artist may represent value. Although vulnerable to an improver, she was not disgraced when failing to concede 4lbs to Lady Lara in a similar event at Newbury and we know the ground and trip presents no problem.
2.55:
Nabucco returned to action last time to win a heavy-ground handicap at Salisbury early in October and may be fresher than most in this apparently weak listed race.
Wetherby Tips and analysis
3.00:
Over at Wetherby, At Fishers Cross capped a great season with spring wins at Cheltenham and Aintree and should extend his winning sequence to seven in the 3.00.
3.35:
In the Charlie Hall at 3.35, Unioniste lines up with a similar profile to last year’s winner from the same stable, Silviniaco Conti. Receiving 4lbs from Long Run and a winner this time last year at Aintree, this may be the time to catch him in top form.
LAST ROUND UP AT NEWMARKET
Friday Nov 1st
12.30
It’s an early start at Headquarters – with the first race scheduled for 12.30 – more in keeping with a fixture at Exeter! For the present, such a venue is a long way away for contenders in the opening maiden.
Racing on soft ground, one that should cope with conditions is Authenticity. A half-brother to Professor and by Authorized out of a Selkirk mare, he is bred to water ski. Given his connections and against representatives from major yards, he is likely to be a big price; however, if he has any ability at all he may attract a smidgen of support.
There is not a lot to go on here: Sea Defence and Think Ahead only achieved passable form on their respective debuts, whilst shot in the dark Authenticity apart, Certificate, from the in-form Roger Varian stable, makes most appeal of the newcomers.
1.00:
Stetchworth should be hard to beat here having finished third to Pretzel and Mutakayyef in what looked a reasonable maiden at the last meeting.
This event received a tenuous shot in the arm through Gannicus (about four lengths behind Stetchworth at Newmarket) as he had earlier been beaten four lengths by Friday’s Newbury winner, Strait Run. Stetchworth should know more now and sets a good standard.
Zee Zeely and Idder both posted promise on their debuts but take on more now.
1.30:
This has the look of a weak end of season handicap. Squire Osbaldeston is only raised 3lbs for his belated Lingfield win after promise as a juvenile and in the spring. He should prove too good from a mark of 85.
2.00:
Third to the smart Night Of Thunder on debut at Goodwood in the soft when not getting a straightforward passage, Penny Drops is taken to spring a surprise in this listed event. She is open to plenty of improvement against rivals that do not exactly suggest we should run for cover. She probably has most to fear from Expect and Cape Factor.
2.30:
Expert might have been the selection here but for a poor effort last time in similar ground at Salisbury. He is still capable of winning this on his best form; the question being, after a long and hard season – and on this ground – whether he will reproduce it. With Mar Mar also failing to convince, a turn-up may be on the cards.
1.00: Stetchworth looks solid.
1.30: Squire Osbaldeston looks a short-priced winner and one for the multiple bets.
2.00: Penny Drops may spring a surprise.
FLYING THE FLAG
Halloween may mean pumpkins, trick-or-treat and scary outfits for some; for others, the last week of October, first in November, means the Breeders’ Cup.
Six thousand miles away from the subsiding rain and winds of Great Britain, somewhere down Orange Highway and in the shadow of the Blue Mountains, they will race round Santa Anita this weekend for the richest collective horseracing purse on the planet.
Every year we Europeans try our luck and, to be fair, during our attempts, although peppered with a harsh helping of heartache, we have had some success.
However, it takes a special horse to win in the USA. What with the travelling, the change of climate and the cut-throat conditions out on the racetrack, only the hardiest take their shots. Those that bring home the biggest prizes are not always the most obvious, nor are they necessarily the best.
From a betting point of view, we often fail to recognise the enormity of the task faced by a traveller. This can be a costly error. It is also worth bearing in mind that the odds this side of the Pond are not always replicated in the US.
We start the two-day meeting with a strong challenge on Friday in the Juvenile Turf over a mile.
Dewhurst third Outstrip appears to have solid credentials, as does Giovanni Boldini – who was third to Toormore in the Group 1 National Stakes and winner of his other two starts, both on Polytrack.
By American stallion War Front – who is making a big impact just now in the UK and Ireland – his chance is further enhanced if, as seems likely according to jockey bookings, he is rated superior to his tough stablemate Wilshire Boulevard.
Even so, the last named was fourth in the Group 1 Prix Jean- Luc Lagardere on Arc day on soft ground and reverts to a more suitable surface now. Wilshire Boulevard is the sort of horse to give it a shot here and he could go well.
Shamson completes the European challenge but has plenty to find. The betting suggests the home-team will struggle – always a dangerous assumption. Despite wide draws, Bashart and Poker Player are powerful threats.
On the face of it, we field one of the strongest teams possible in the fillies’ equivalent.
Cheveley Park winner Vorda – also winner of the Robert Papin and whose only defeat came in the Prix Morny when second to the monster that is No Nay Never – was impressive at Newmarket and is already talked of as next year’s 1,000 Guineas winner. That is of course possible, although a venture to California en route is not usually the ideal preparation. There is also a major stamina question for her to answer. No prisoners will be taken in this field, which will ruthlessly expose any chinks in her armour. She will not win this if she only gets seven-and-a-half furlongs!
There are no stamina doubts about Fillies’ Mile winner Chriselliam but, despite the positivity of her connections after the event, that Newmarket win remains something of a head scratcher for form analysts.
Al Thakhira looked impressive enough when running away with the Rockfel but there has to be a doubt about that form.
Once again we ignore the Americans at our peril: Kitten Koboodle and the wide-drawn My Conquestadory could provide most resistance, but they also have chances with Testa Rossi and Sky Painter.
On Saturday, improving Dank is rightly perceived as having a solid and serious chance in the Filly and Mares event on turf. It would be foolish to counter her claim but 2/1 – or even 7/4 in places – about a filly on a mission a quarter of a world away does assume plenty.
It is not difficult to construct a case for The Fugue in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. After a ‘soft’ season, she routed top class colts in the Irish Champion Stakes and looks to be primed to run the race of her life now in conditions guaranteed to suit. Notwithstanding current odds she faces a tough task though, as she takes on some seasoned American bulwarks.
Despite a name implying otherwise, Big Blue Kitten – a horse and not a mare – will not be distracted by a saucer of milk and a tin of Felix. Along with Point Of Entry (to name just two), they spearhead a potent and beefy threat.
In the Mile, Olympic Glory’s participation on fast ground seems like a decision conjured in the boiler room of doom. What are connections thinking here? All his best form is unquestionably when there is dig in the ground. A revelation when squelching through the Ascot slop in the QEII, conditions in California could not be more different, or, on all known form, more alien.
There is tremendous home confidence behind Wise Dan, whilst Silver Max is an able deputy should the bullets fired by the favourite fall wide.
At around half past midnight our time, we reach the showpiece race – The Classic, run for a colossal purse of over $2.5 million on dirt. This is not a race they tend to give away!
Declaration Of War – an American-bred by War Front – may be bred for the job but has yet to race on this surface.
Game On Dude, last year’s winner Fort Larned, and Mucho Man may not be as classy but have the home advantage.
As a meeting, this is great stuff, but it rarely goes as planned for would-be marauders – for whom even one winner is a major achievement. Taking America by storm is as hard now as it was back in 1775.
It is generally acknowledged that Dank, Vorda and The Fugue represent the best chances for the Europeans; but doubts persist, leading me to believe it is a night to watch rather than one in which to bet.
Don’t forget the time of year… Watch out for Freddy Krueger!
SATURDAY OCTOBER 26TH
(posted Friday 2.30pm)
Doncaster Racing Tips and Views
2.05:
With a highly promising profile, Aeolus looks ready for this step up in grade having improved markedly with every run. An impressive specimen, he may have more to offer but faces serious opposition in the penalised Stubbs and the impressive Goodwood winner Night Of Thunder, who has already displayed an ability to handle soft ground. Perm any one from three…
Result
Night of Thunder 1st 5/2 -> 6/4
Aeolus 2nd 100/30
3.15:
As always the sprint handicap is tough. With only limited mileage on the clock, Take Cover looks primed to run a big race despite a 7lbs hike for his latest York success. Unusually for an offspring of Singspiel, it could be argued this drop back to five furlongs has brought about the best in him. He is closely weighted with Steps (may have the best of the draw) and Kyleakin Lass.
A tenuous line through Ancient Cross on York running last time gives Valbchek a credible chance, particularly as he ran out of room at a crucial stage that day and would have finished closer with a clear passage.
Knotty handicaps such as this provide plenty of excuses in advance, but should everything fall right, Valbchek is probably capable of winning this and may be worth chancing at double-figure odds.
3.50:
So we arrive at the last Group 1 of the season – the Racing Post Trophy.
Already spoken of as a possible classic contender, Kingston Hilllooks the form horse after an impressive win at Newmarket last time from Oklahoma City.
A form line through Pupil gives him the clear edge over Pinzolo and he also has the beating of Altruistic through Oklahoma City. He stays this trip well and has a good turn of foot – something he has always demonstrated in his work at home with the likes of the speedy Mishar.
Responsible for Oklahoma City, Aidan O’Brien has something of a lead into the worth of the Newmarket form and his Century looks likely to provide the biggest danger.
Century burst through in the closing stages of his Curragh maiden to win in emphatic style, showing plenty of acceleration and looking a classy prospect. A good-actioned son of Montjeu, soft ground may not be ideal but he is a colt of undoubted promise. It would be dangerous to rule him out of calculations.
This leaves us with the conundrum often faced in contests such as this – whether to latch on to the solid form or take a flyer with a horse of immense promise.
Newbury Racing Tips and Views
2.20:
Like Century in the Racing Post, Galiway lines up here with just a highly promising maiden win to his name, having taken a newcomers’ event at St Cloud in expected manner. Given his connections, he has to be respected but faces a tougher task now against proven rivals.
Form pick, Morning Post may struggle over this trip in what threatens to be heavy ground.
Piping Rock will handle conditions but has something to find; whereas, Trading Profit was not beaten far in a bunch finish for the Mill Reef here when behind Supplicant and has solid each-way claims.
result
Piping Rock 1st 4/1 -> 3/1
Galiway 2nd 5/2
2.55:
A son of Authorized, soft ground seems to favour the late-bloomer Nichols Canyon who was impressive over 1m 6f last time in similar conditions at Ascot.
This is tougher, but if it turns into a slog he will get home when some of his rivals may be floundering. So long as all eight intended runners turn up, he is seen as an each-way alternative to likely favourite – the penalised Prince Bishop.
With Masterstroke having shown nothing since joining Godolphin, and Sugar Boy having tailed-off last time, this is a winnable contest for an in-form Nichols Canyon.
result
Nichols Canyon 2nd
This is not a day for punters to dip too deeply into their pockets. As things stand, each-way interest in Valbchek, Trading Profitand Nichols Canyon (as long as all eight run) is advised.
FRIDAY OCTOBER 25TH
(posted Thursday Afternoon)
Newbury Racing Tips and Views
1.30:
It is possible Strait Run’s seventh in a Salisbury maiden is better than it looks at first glance. The second won at Lingfield next time, whilst the tenth home was only beaten six lengths by Pretzel at Newmarket on Wednesday.
Of the unraced contingent, the two that stand out are the Galileo colt Impulsive Moment and the New Approach and Godolphin representative, Flight Officer, both of whom have impeccable pedigrees, meaning they could easily be a class apart.
Discussed in notebook
Straight Run Won
Flight officer 2nd
2.00:
Despite a reasonable debut here last month when second to Cape Wrath, Dark Leopard will have to buck a negative trend to win as that race is not working out.
Result Dark Leopard beaten
Cape Wrath made little impact at Newmarket on Wednesday and other runners from that maiden have been beaten a long way on subsequent engagements.
Therefore, it is hard to escape the conclusion (formed at the time) that the race was moderate.
Master Of Suspense has been absent since June, whilst Potentate’s two seconds to date indicate he is capable of winning a maiden without being a good thing to do so.
Of the newcomers, Dutchartcollector – a gelding by Dutch Art out of a Pivotal mare – looks guaranteed to handle soft ground.
2.30:
Carthage’s second at Goodwood sets a beatable standard. The two debutants he has most to fear from appear to be the stoutly-bred Jefferson City and the Derby entrant Observational, both of whom could prove to be serious dangers.
3.35:
Kalispell looks the interesting contender here after a fair comeback run at Sandown after nearly a year in the wilderness. That was her first run since finishing second to The Lark at Doncaster this time last year – a run that, from the lowly mark of 75, would give this Singspiel filly excellent claims today.
Noted in Notebook
Kalispell won very easily 8/1
5.10:
Whatever else happens on the day, Blessington looks primed to take this sprint handicap. He is open to plenty of improvement after an excellent comeback run in a competitive Ascot handicap three weeks ago when a fast-finishing second to Intibaah on a day when little came from off the pace. A 3lbs rise seems fair; in addition, this extra half a furlong should suit, making it one of many components that should enable him to go one better now.
5.10: BLESSINGTON looks the best of the day, with the remainder of the comments only advanced as pointers at this stage.
Result
Ran too bad to be true. Discussed in Notebook
Wednesday 23 Oct
(posted Tuesday afternoon)
RIGHT AS RAIN…
You may have noticed it has been raining rather a lot of late. At least it should prevent the water companies from hiking their prices – then again, maybe not – perhaps it is the wrong sort of rain: wet as opposed to not quite so wet.
Come to think of it, isn’t electricity generated in part by water? Maybe those nice executives responsible for allowing us access to the power required to turn on lights, watch our televisions and have hot water and heating, will take pity and reduce prices for a change. Apparently it takes a lot of water to make beer – maybe a pint of bitter will cost a few pence less in the run-up to Christmas. If not, well, paying top dollar for beer is fair enough – after all, it’s beer when all is said and done!
Who am I kidding? Expecting charity from energy suppliers (I am including beer manufacturers here – you get energy of sorts from beer!) is like expecting bookmakers to show generosity at Newmarket tomorrow.
They already have plenty on their side. With half the card consisting of expensive well-bred debutants (at present you buy a small Hebridean island with their joint worth), anything could happen to even the strongly-fancied contenders.
There is a chink of light on the card, but that light could soon become extinguished by either the unknown and largely unfancied runner in the ‘black cap’, or ground conditions these juveniles have not yet experienced.
It doesn’t look like a day that will take care of the latest brown envelope.
On the positive side, we can at least form some sort of opinion in the 3.40, where all the participants have form.
Best of it is represented by Sudden Wonder, who after two runs at Newmarket, behind smart stablemates Outstrip on debut, and later Pinzolo – both of whom have since won in better company – gets his turn in the spotlight.
This form looks solid from all directions and he is receiving 5lbs from Cape Wraith, who should cope with the ground and the step up in trip, but whose win at Newbury came in a distinctly moderate affair. There is of course a drawback; after all, it wouldn’t be a horserace unless there was more than an element of a doubt now would it?
For a start, we haven’t seen Sudden Wonder since mid-August and, being by New Approach, we have to speculate about his ability to handle ground this soft. Do you ever feel events are programmed to conspire against you?
result
Sudden Wonder won
Cape Wraith 3rd
Half-an-hour later, Munjaz, just behind Sudden Wonder on his debut in August, sets the standard in another maiden.
That run looks in advance of what was no more than a promising debut from Touch The Sky when he finished fourth to Master The World in September.
Again, just to add an element of trickery, Munjaz has been on the sidelines for longer than ideal (68 days).
Godolphin are chucking plenty of darts at the board just now, this time the blue arrow is carried by a Sea The Stars gelding, Moontime.
Best of the unraced would appear to be Munjaz’s stable companion, Danjeu, a Montjeu colt that lines up with something of a reputation.
Result
Moontime won 14/1
Munjaz 2nd 7/4 -> 5/4 (Nose)
The sleight of hand continues at Kempton where the first division of the maiden at 6.50 looks inordinately strong by the track’s normally modest standards. There are no ground worries on the synthetic surface of course.
What appears to be a solid contender in once-raced Moonfaarid lines up as the one to beat after having finished second to Ghazi at Newmarket in August, with reasonable benchmark Pool House in third and subsequent dual winner Outback Traveller in fourth. That form threatens to make him hard to beat, especially from a plum draw. The recurrent theme here seems to be the month of August. Once again Moonfaarid has either been on his holidays or has had a setback of some description.
However, you still have to perm any one of six well-bred newcomers to prove troublesome: The Street Cry Godolphin representative Cry Joy, the flashy American-bred Marzocco, the Sea The Stars colt Moontown, and Warrior Of Light. From powerful stables, Mutamakkin and Steve Rogers deserve respect, but on the face of it appear more stoutly-bred and may be more effective next season.
Result
Marzocco won 7/1
Moonfarid 3rd Evs
There is a whisper for D’Avignon in the second division – who faces an all-together easier assignment than participants half-an-hour earlier.
This time the wild card is the draw. Of eleven runners, D’Avignon is drawn – well, you guessed it didn’t you – widest of all in eleven.
As I write I see the 2.20 at Yarmouth has been won by a 33/1 shot with a 100/1 chance in third.
Good game isn’t it!
CHAMPIONS’ DAY
(Saturday 19th Oct)
1.45:
Somehow, Estimate escapes a Group 1 penalty in this Group 3 event that, despite being at the lowest end of the group scale still features a strong line-up. Estimate’s chance and her record at Ascot speaks for itself and she threatens to be hard to beat.
The consistent Ahzeemah should again be on the premises at this level. New kid on the staying block, Eye Of The Storm could be interesting. A third to Trading Leather in the Autumn Stakes last year and a narrow defeat by Sugar Boy in the Classic Trail at Sandown reads well enough but he has looked no more than useful at listed level since. A line through Missunited – whom he has met twice – suggests he is not especially progressive and this represents a tougher task than encountered of late.
Estimate is the filly to beat without making any great betting appeal.
2.20:
Like Estimate in the preceding race, last year’s winner, Maarek is the obvious one here back to six furlongs and on his favoured ground. A tough contender when things are right, he will be hard to beat against largely vulnerable opponents.
Jack Dexter looks solid enough after a giant effort in the Ayr Gold Cup and an earlier fourth in the King’s Stand over an inadequate five furlongs at the Royal Meeting.
On the other hand, Viztoria may struggle against sprinters now she is surprisingly brought back to six furlongs. This will also be her third outing in just over a month, having made little show at Longchamp a fortnight ago.
Slade Power has a chance, whereas only one other horse – drastically overpriced at that – seems in this sort of league. Balmont Mast is a tough globetrotter that has made his mark in Group 1 events in Singapore and Dubai and should not be underestimated. Apparently versatile as regards ground (being an American-bred there is always a suspicion soft may be against him but he has won on it), he arrives here in good form having won last Saturday at the Curragh and looks primed to outrun a double-figure price.
2.55:
A race that includes a German Group 1 winner in Nymphea, recent Prix De L’Opera winner Dalkala, the first and third from the Oaks in Talent and The Lark, one-time Guineas favourite Hot Snap, improving Waila and Belle De Crecy and South African mare Igugu has to be considered a strong one.
Dalkala is in great form and handles the soft, but is arguably best at ten furlongs. She may find a slog in this ground stretching her stamina in this company.
We know Talent stays well although the ground is something of an unknown; whereas The Lark will be ideally suited by ground conditions.
If someone could convince me Dalkala will be as effective over this trip as she was at Longchamp two weeks ago over ten furlongs, I could be tempted. As it is, I am inclined to watch this one.
3.30:
This year’s QEII should only concern the front four in the betting. There has to be a slight question mark hanging over Dawn Approach. On soft ground, if he pulls as he has done in the past, he will surely set the race up for a finisher. In the belief we have seen the best of him I am prepared to look elsewhere.
In top form and back to an ideal trip, Maxios fits the bill having slammed Olympic Glory last time at Longchamp.
It is doubtful whether this ground will bring out the best in Soft Falling Rain.
Gordon Lord Byron does not look up to winning over a mile at this level, nor does mud-loving Top Notch Tonto.
A raft of doubt surrounds Kingsbarns.
That leaves us with Olympic Glory who only has a little to find with Dawn Approach on the latter’s best form and who handles the ground. He lines up as something of an afterthought (Toronado was the intended representative of owner and trainer but was ruled out on this ground); although a reproduction of his fast-finishing second to Moonlight Cloud in the Jacques Le Marios when Intello, Declaration Of War and an intractable Dawn Approach were behind, would make him a dangerous candidate. It seems he ran below par last time but on balance, Maxios seems the safest option. Olympic Glory may follow him home.
4.05:
So we move on to the Champion Stakes, dominated in the betting by a seven-year-old in Cirrus Des Aigles and a five-year-old in Farhh.
Both have had their setbacks this season and the fact they monopolise the front end of the market tells its own story about this year’s Classic crop.
Cirrus Des Aigles writes his own script and no one will begrudge him another success in this event.
Of the rest, Derby winner Ruler Of The World is hard to fancy, whilst Mukhadram has claims but it will be a sub-standard Champion if he wins.
For those in search of value, Morandi will relish the ground and although his form with Intello leaves him with something to find, such improvement of this ground cannot be ruled out.
Another that might belie his odds is Hillstar. Possibly better at 1m 4f, this ground will bring his undoubted stamina into play and it would be a mistake to judge him solely on his run on the firm in the Juddmonte.
The Day’s BETS:
Despite the clear claims of Estimate, Maarek and Cirrus Des Aigles, it may pay to overlook the obvious. MAXIOS is seen as the best alternative in the 3.30.
At prices that look too big, value-seekers might like to considerBalmont Mast and Morandi in their respective events.
FRIDAY OCTOBER 18TH
Something for the weekend Sir?
It looks like we are back in the game.
HAYDOCK RACING
Easy ground calls for caution here but the card is interesting enough, presenting a couple of possibilities:
2.20: The form horse in this is undeniably Newmarket Warrior, who after five attempts is nevertheless making a meal of winning. The right man is aboard now to rectify that record and he has every chance of opening his account.
However, backing horses with his profile is not always the best move and although not a recommendation, it is highly likely we can expect an improved showing from Battersea, a well thought of son of Galileo. Although too green to do himself justice at Newmarket on debut, he looks the part and may know more now. Essentially a race to watch.
2.55: Desert Ace represents a smidgen of value in this nursery after finishing third in the heavy at Salisbury last time to subsequent Middle Park third Justice Day, with talented but unreliable Figure Of Speech back in fourth. Back to the minimum trip and partnered by a talented apprentice that effectively reduces his mark to 80, he looks worth chancing.
4.05: Baarez looks all set to be the rage in this after throwing away a Newmarket maiden won by Mitrad last month.
On the face of it, the charitable among us accredited his antics to greenness, but the fitting of a hood today hints that connections may suspect temperament may be creeping in.
Be that may, at the price he makes little appeal and, being by Hard Spun, is not an obvious candidate to handle soft ground, despite the Monsun line on the distaff side.
Whatever Baarez’s fate, Tall Ship – six lengths behind him at Newmarket and never realistically put in the contest – can be expected to finish much closer now.
CHELTENHAM RACING: Well, it had to happen sooner or later – so here it is. Stash away the light summer suits, dig out the Barbour.
Really do I have to?
Sure do if you want to stay in the game son!
Here goes then:
2.00: Saint Roque should relish this step up in trip and should therefore have a big chance against his most obvious danger – Rum And Butter.
3.15: I would prefer to pass on this if that’s okay with you. However, with Emma Lavelle’s horses in such sparkling form (so I am told), despite top weight, Captain Sunshine has to be respected.
4.25: With some interesting contenders lining up, without information this may not be a race for heavy involvement.
However, Germany Calling should be an interesting recruit to timber and is worth watching both in the betting and in running. Whatever they say about the pretenders, Lac Fontana should be hard to beat after a decent run here in the Triumph Hurdle last season, when he was also close enough to useful types in Forgotten Voice at Kempton and Chatterbox at Newbury. Whatever happens later in the season, this promises to be his day.
5.30: It is too early to draw a line through the well regarded Four Too who was cantering last Saturday at Chepstow only to fade out of contention in the time it took a lamb to shake its tail. Apparently he needed the run and the fact he is turned out again so quickly and with a tongue tie indicates his powerful stable expect a better showing here.
There are two suggestions on the day:
Desert Ace 2.55 Haydock
Lac Fontana 4.25 Cheltenham.
Update Saturday Evening
Darwin and AFONSO DE SOUSA were non runners due to the ground change
WAR COMMAND WON
PALLASATOR placed at 8/1 in Cesarewitch (Ladbrokes, Bet365 , sky, Tote, Betfred Boyle, Stan James, Paddy Power all paid 5 places)
100% Record Spy. Well done!
SATURDAY OCTOBER 12th
(posted Friday afternoon)
We may be in the closing stages of the current Flat season, but the fat lady is not bursting into song just yet. A great day’s racing is in prospect at Newmarket this Saturday – with only one handicap [Cesarewitch] featured on a diamond-studded card.
The Challenge Stakes (Group 2) is first up – a race that promises to supply one of several Irish-trained winners on the day when DARWIN lines up with excellent claims, particularly on the assumption that a return to seven furlongs will suit. He beat Gordon Lord Byron over this trip at the Curragh in July and was a useful juvenile in the US last year. A typical American-bred, he seems best on fast ground, so only a change in the going description threatens to jeopardise his chance. At the time of writing, everything seems in place for a major run.
2.35: The first of two Group 1s for the juveniles, the Middle Park is a prize that again may be gobbled up by the Irish, who field the front two in the market.
Great White Eagle is a good-looking son of Elusive Quality with a big reputation that needs to step up on his Group 3 win at the Curragh last time. He did take time to master his rivals, eventually finishing nicely on top and winning with plenty in hand. He has earned his place in this stronger field; however, it is entirely possible this trip is a minimum for him.
Sudirman, winner of the Group 2 Railways Stakes and the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes – where he beat a ring-rusty War Command – went on to meet his match in Toormore in the Group 1 National Stakes over seven furlongs next time. A return to six is likely to be in his favour now and he lines up boasting the best form.
Hot Streak was a flashy winner of the Group 2 Cornwallis at Ascot last week although, unlike several rivals, was perfectly positioned to strike throughout the race. The form is only ordinary (third Kickboxer well beaten in the nursery at York on Friday) and threatens to be misleading at this level.
Astaire can come out best of the home team, but the inescapable conclusion here is that one of the Irish will prevail. Those backing Great White Eagle row in with potential over solidity in the shape of form horse – at least going into the race – Sudirman.
3.10: A field of six for the Dewhurst is a bit of a disappointment but War Command and Outstrip represent two powerful stables and come to the table with serious claims.
Coventry Stakes winner War Command was a little below-par when reappearing next time at the Curragh (beaten by Sudirman over six), but made no mistake shifted up to seven next time, looking an entirely different proposition. He comfortably asserted his authority in a Group 2 at the Curragh last time with a killer kick of speed and looks top class over this trip. He will be hard to beat.
Outstrip lines up as the biggest and only danger in what appears a two-horse contest. War Command gets a confident nod.
3.50: Built like a proverbial tank, Pallasator looks capable of humping a big weight to mean effect here. He should overturn Haydock form with Platinum from the same mark. Lightly raced (just the one run this year) he has the look of a horse targeted at this end-of-season prize from his shrewd handler.
Tiger Cliff faces a 6lbs rise for his Ebor win, but, to an extent, he has already landed the big race and more is required from top weight.
Smoky Hill is apparently fancied on the back of his fourth to Domeside in the Group 3 Prix Gladiateur last month. Literal translation of that run means he is potentially well treated from his present mark of 91. The possible chink in his armour is the trip, as the Gladiateur is over 1m 7f. He has to prove he stays this extra three furlongs, which is not a given on breeding.
Pallasator may be the safest option.
4.25: Lightning Thunder presented a persistent challenge to the highly regarded Miss France in the Oh So Sharp last time and sets the standard for this. She is a likeable and game filly that has progressed with each run so far. Lustrous, fourth in the May Hill on only her second outing, improved from her Salisbury debut at Doncaster and any further advancement would mean she is a big danger.
4.55: Here we have what promises to be another informative juvenile event with God Willing, Kingston Hill and Mount Logan representing the progressive contingent, whilst Oklahoma City and Pupil line up with undeniable cast-iron form claims. Untangling the likely outcome seems too knotty at present.
5.25: The Group 3 Darley Stakes sets the seal on the day. Plenty line up, although, realistically, very few warrant serious consideration.
Once again, the O’Brien camp fields the one to beat in Afonso De Sousa – a three-year-old that has mixed it with some big names in Ireland. This trip should bring out the best in him.
Kassiano ran like a non-stayer at Newbury in soft ground last time and it would be unwise to dismiss his chance back over a more suitable trip and on better ground.
York offers the hurly burly of tight competitive handicaps – most of which look too hard from a punting perspective. The exception could be the 2.55 – another hot juvenile contest.
Mushir comes here in preference to the Middle Park after a last-gasp debut win at Kempton consolidated a tall home reputation.
Of similar profile is Outer Space, who shaped as if this six furlongs would suit when finishing strongly last Saturday to snatch second in a below standard Cornwallis. That was a much-improved effort that was not a surprise judging by the betting, meaning he could easily win this. He does face serious opposition though.
Betting opportunities on the day are courtesy of Mr Aidan O’ Brien.
DARWIN appeals as the best prospect in Newmarket’s opener at 2.05.
It is tempting to think the stable may have a first and last race double with AFONSO DE SOUSA representing the final leg it. He looks a likely winner of the 5.25.
In between, WAR COMMAND is hard to oppose in the Dewhurst and Great White Eagle could easily supply a four-timer, although facing a strong rival in Sudirman, he may be the weakest link in an otherwise very strong chain.
PALLASATOR is a sporting selection in the Cesarewitch.
SUNDAY OCTOBER 6TH
12.45: Don’t fancy Jwala – feel it was a fluke last time. Chances for Maarek (possibly better over six) on ground he likes, also Dutch Masterpiece and Reckless Abandon (unproven on ground), whilst Ballesteros goes on soft. Too many possibilities.
1.55: Forget Wilshire Boulevard – ground is against him. One of the French should win this – question is, which one?
4.40: Don’t fancy Gordon Lord Byron here, surely outclassed byMoonlight Cloud and the progressive Viztoria over this seven furlongs. Could see Garswood running well at a price.
SATURDAY OCTOBER 5TH
If it’s the first weekend in October it must be Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe weekend. It is a cracking contest again this year, likely to be run on soft ground. Although it is possible to fancy a couple of horses at the two-day Longchamp meeting, at this stage it may pay to hold fire until we know how it rides. Saturday’s card will be informative – any late news or views to be posted on Sunday.
Closer to home, it appears as if there may be a few opportunities for us on Saturday.
We can start at Ascot where Hot Streak and Extortionist are the ones to beat in the 2.05 Group 3 Cornwallis.
Hot Streak was third in the Mill Reef last time and previously a winner of a listed event at York, but both runs may flatter to a degree.
A line through Supplicant gives the edge to Windsor Castle winner Extortionist, who ran well enough in the Flying Childers last time and has proven experience at this level. He is also suited by five furlongs.
It is possible one of the unexposed contingent may punch a hole in what appears solid form here, but Extortionist is preferred to Hot Streak and given preference in what looks like a sub-standard event.
2.40: The combination of a step up to 1m 4f and rain-softened ground will suit Gatewood after a satisfactory return to action in the UK when a staying-on second to Out Of Bounds at Doncaster.
Royal Empire will have his supporters but the 3lbs penalty proved his undoing last time at Kempton so he remains vulnerable now.
The very likeable Gospel Choir is undoubtedly worth his place in this company but does have to make the transition from handicap company.
The St Leger sixth, Secret Number is yet to win on turf, victories having come at Kempton and Meydan. So far he has run well in Group company without winning and it may be a similar story now.
Mijhaar and Repeater look a moody pair of customers; whereas Gatewood is a solid and consistent contender that ticks plenty of boxes in this company.
3.15: Race conditions suit Soul here who posted a promising effort last time in the Haydock Sprint when fifth to Gordon Lord Byron. A dangerous contender in such company, he relishes easy ground (crucial for his chances) and his proven soft ground record combined with the 4lbs he receives from Heeraat means he has a clear shot here. Again, this is a race long on numbers but short on quality.
At Newmarket, Oklahoma City is handed a real opportunity in the valuable sales race at 2.20. Second to high-profile stablemates, Wilshire Boulevard in July and Geoffrey Chaucer last week, both at the Curragh over, first 6f then a mile, this trip of seven should be ideal. So far he has only encountered decent ground, so any change in the Newmarket surface might be cause for concern.
Assuming conditions remain as they are today, we are looking at four solid and reasonably priced contenders on the day. As things stand, the suggestion is to shuffle them around in a multiple bet of some sort, as they should all be knocking at the door. OKLAHOMA CITY may represent our best chance followed by GATEWOOD and the other two.
FRIDAY OCTOBER 4TH:
ASCOT
2.30:
From a pound lower mark, Gworn will be many people’s idea of the most likely winner here following his recent second to subsequent winner Ennistown at Haydock. A return to a mile should be in his favour, making him the one to aim at.
Emilio Largo has put a couple of promising runs together of late – most notably last time at Kempton when only four lengths behind Graphic in a competitive handicap. That is strong form, boosted by the runs of both Graphic and Seek Again in Saturday’s Cambridgeshire. Not the sort of horse to provide collateral at the bank, Emilio Largo shapes as if he is coming to hand, races from a handy mark and turns out in a race that has cut up since the five-day stage. He is worth chancing.
3.05:
As befits a Class 2 handicap over six furlongs confined to three-year-olds that has attracted eighteen runners, plenty of questions surround this event.
Twice-raced Blessington was last seen in July 2012 at Goodwood when winning a maiden that contained Garswood among others. His mark of 85 is a bit of a guess this far down the line, as is the absence.
Recently gelded Breton Rock is a winner of three out of his five races and looks progressive. However, a return to six furlongs is not guaranteed to be ideal, although a 5lb weight rise for his latest success is not prohibitive.
We are entering the time of year when finding well-handicapped horses is something of a rarity, but Normal Equilibrium does look well in, particularly when taking into account the 5lbs claim of his excellent young rider, Oisin Murphy. So far so good – he can be fancied here at what is likely to be an attractive price. Here comes the punch line: his two wins have been at five furlongs; although his ventures over today’s six suggest he should be equally effective over this trip, particularly if delivered late and played for speed.
Can You Conga is uncomplicated but although on the upgrade needs a personal best to win.
3.40:
A strong Irish challenge has to be taken seriously here – Dabadiyan and Dark Crusader fielding excellent claims. After a good second last time to subsequent Group 3 winner Camborne at Doncaster, Shwainan may come out best of the home-trained contingent, especially over what threatens to be his ideal trip.
4.15:
Two miles seems to suit the in-form Man Of Plenty who, although hardly well handicapped, faces rivals of a similar level from a handicapping perspective and may just get away with this.
Stand by for a going change and non-runners aplenty at Ascot on Friday.
However, unless it turns into the Somme, small stakes are advised on EMILIO LARGO and NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM, both of whom will have the advantage of racing on the sand-based straight course that should not be too affected by overnight rain.
SATURDAY TIPS
SEPTEMBER 28th
(posted Friday midday)
It’s a big day at Newmarket, kicking off with the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at 2.00, which sees the return to action of Chesham winner Berkshire. Absent since Royal Ascot, Berkshire was impressive at Ascot but needs to regain the threads here, particularly against Somewhat who looks a big danger judged on his latest win at Newbury from subsequent Doncaster scorer Be Ready.
2.35:
Vorda has clear form claims for the Group 1 Cheveley Park having suffered her only defeat in the Prix Morny when second to No Nay Never. On a tenuous line through Rizeena, Kiyoshi has a bit to find with her. Her tendency to drift one way or another may complicate things further across the expanse of Newmarket Heath.
Winner of a maiden at Cork and a Listed at the Curragh, Come To Heel could be anything but faces a stiff test here.
Vorda is the likely winner but backing horses that travel from France at short prices is not always rewarding. Perhaps we should let her win.
3.10:
Sky Lantern has been on the go since April, making it a long season as she lines up for this her sixth race of the year nearly six months on. If she is in the sort of form we saw at Newmarket in the spring and at Royal Ascot in June, she will probably win – something her price already assumes.
The rematch with Elusive Kate adds extra interest to this Group 1.
Rewind the clock to May and the 1,000 Guineas, and Just The Judge could be fancied to reverse that form with Sky Lantern; but, with the exception of her win in the Irish equivalent, it seems fair to say she has not gone on since.
In contrast, Integral is a much-improved filly that has the advantage of having come to hand at this late stage of the season. Whatever excuses are forwarded for apparently luckless Sky Lantern at Goodwood in the Nassau, the fact remains Integral was only a length behind her then and has probably improved beyond that run since. Having won her three other races (value for more than a dead-heat last time at Sandown) this could be her day to collect a big race.
3.50:
Not a race on which to dwell. From a stable with a proven record in this huge backend handicap, Seek Again has always appealed as a likely type to me.
Second to the very useful Van Der Neer as a juvenile, he created a favourable impression when opening his account for the season in August. Honourable efforts in defeat at Kempton since means a mark of 98 is feasible; but a return to turf and this extra furlong will need to be instrumental in the improvement required in order for him to win this.
He is a sporting wager from this quarter, if only because I have no wish to watch him win a race unbacked which I always thought was on his radar screen. However, I am not sure that is sufficient cause to recommend his claims to others!
At Haydock, Ehtifaal took the eye when fourth to God Willing at Newbury. He faces several types with a similar profile here but that Newbury maiden represented strong form and he is the one to beat.
Bets on the day:
Integral is worth a shot in the Sun Chariot at 3.10. Obviously she is no good thing, but she looks temptingly overpriced.
Ehtifaal ought to repay support at Haydock.
NEWMARKET RACES
FRIDAY SEPT 27TH
(Posted Thursday afternoon)
1.40:
Perm any one from three fillies with varied profiles for this:
Firstly, the visually impressive Radiator, a winner by fifteen lengths at Lingfield last time when she beat little of substance but did so in taking style. She is a very attractive daughter of Dubawi that came to Goodwood on debut with a big reputation and could be poised to take major honours next year.
At this stage, arguably the filly with the best form is Lightning Thunder who, in a tight finish, beat the colts last time at Newbury, edging out Justice Day and Expert in a tight finish.
The claims of Stealth Missile should not be under-estimated after she also beat colts at Ascot last time, including easy Wednesday Goodwood winner Fracking. Radiator makes no appeal at the price but her rivals may not be quite in her league.
2.40:
After a lack-lustre effort at Haydock in very soft ground last time, a revitalised Montiridge would present a serious challenge to Soft Falling Rain, whose debut in this country when second in the Hungerford from a penalty, served notice he is likely to prove hard to beat in events such as this.
Penitent is reliant on soft ground to make an impact at this level, whilst Premio Loco is likely to struggle as is Boom And Bust.
But Guest Of Honour and Glory Awaits (held by Montiridge but ran the race of his life in the Guineas over this track in May), cannot be safely dismissed.
3.15:
Ihtimal was a ready winner of the May Hill at Doncaster and looks a filly at the top of her game at present. Not over big but very powerful, her Doncaster form received a major boost when Lady Lara won last Saturday at Newbury. Her presence will ensure Rizeena does not get things all her own way; whatever happens next year, she has a serious shot at Group 1 success now.
Rizeena has won four of her seven races, losing no caste in defeat in France when third to No Nay Never in the Prix Morny; however, her other two defeats did come over the undulations of Newmarket – one of those on the July course. That may be a coincidence, but her defeat from a penalty in the Cherry Hinton represented a dip in her overall form and it is just possible this type of track does not show her to best advantage. At present it is tempting to nominate Ihtimal as not only a serious danger, but possibly the most likely winner.
3.50:
Yuften sets a high standard in the maiden after a run bursting with promise at Newbury when second to the useful Barley Mow. Noticeably tenderly handled, with that run behind him, it will take a smart newcomer to lower his colours.
4.25:
Gatewood probably just needed his reappearance run at Doncaster when narrowly failing to overhaul Out Of Bounds. He has every chance of making amends here but is priced accordingly and will presumably not have his favoured easy surface.
Yuften appears the safest option on the day.
Ihtimal is seen as a tempting alternative to Rizeena in the Cheveley Park.
BACK IN BUSINESS AT
NEWMARKET…
(Posted Wednesday evening for Thursday racing)
For many, Newmarket starts the Flat season proper with their Craven meeting in the spring and at this, the other end of the season, they are instrumental in its winding down. With the big juvenile events including the Dewhurst to come, headquarters does not succumb with a whimper.
The Somerville Tattersall Stakes (Group 3) at 3.40 on Thursday is the first of many such races due to be staged over the coming six weeks.
It also appears to present us with a real chance as God Willing appeals as an attractive betting proposition. This son of Arch created a big impression when winning at Newbury on debut in a race that has consistently proved its worth, supplying three individual winners of four races.
To get any negative aspect out of the way, runner-up, Raise Your Gaze disappointed next time at Leicester; however, fancied by connections, that run was almost certainly too bad to be true.
Getting back to Newbury, third horse What About Carlo was certainly not disgraced in the Haynes, Hanson and Clark last week and literal translation of that run puts God Willing at a similar level to Racing Post contender Pinzolo.
There is every reason to assume highly regarded God Willing will improve beyond simple weight and measures. He gets his chance in better company now in what appears to be an ideal race for a potential top class colt starting his ascension of the ranks. He is likely to be overpriced in the morning betting.
On the subject of juveniles, before its running, what we have in the opening event is an assembly of unraced horseflesh collectively capable of greatly reducing the national debt.
Colts by top stallions New Approach, Mastercraftsman, Dansili, Azamour and Duke Of Marmalade will be under scrutiny as they step into the parade ring for the first time.
None will be more eagerly awaited than Touch The Sky, trained by Mrs Cecil and by Sea The Stars out of Oaks winner Love Divine. This is surely an event that should fall to a newcomer and one from which much can be gleaned.
WEDNESDAY 24 September
(Posted Tuesday)
Advance NOTES)
Goodwood Racing
2.00:
Travis Bickle shaped well enough on turf at Lingfield last time when closing through the pack to finish second to Outback Traveller over six furlongs. That run suggests he should pick up a maiden.
Unfortunately, this may not be it. The inclusion of several high profile newcomers threaten to make this a hot event.
In particular, Sir Michael Stoute’s representatives look potential threats. Chief of these is possibly Derby entrant Arbaab, whilst stablemates Matravers and Idea have attractive pedigrees.
High Master, apparently by-passed by Richard Hughes in favour of Travis Bickle, may improve for the run.
Film buffs will recognise the name of Travis Bickle. If you are “looking at him; you, looking at me!” best you keep a similar watch on the market.
2.30:
On a day when selections carry a fair degree of complication, Double Bluff may present the best option. After a highly promising debut when second to Pupil at Doncaster, this stoutly-bred relative to Double Trigger and Double Eclipse should relish this extended trip and lays the best credentials on the line.
3.40:
The inclusion of Goodwood Cup winner Brown Panther in this event run over just short of 1m2f is something of a surprise. Although a winner over a 1m 4f in lesser company, his penalty, allied to the opposition he faces, make him a very unlikely winner.
On the face of it, this appears to present Grandeur – now stripped of his penalty – with a cast-iron opportunity. A course winner, he is unquestionably best on a firm surface. He would not want this surface to be any worse than good.
Now with the capable Marco Botti, a fit and well Sugar Boy would be feared on early season form – although fast ground would possibly count against him…
4.15:
With the ground drying out by the hour, despite an eye-catching return over this track in August, Sweet Deal’s preference for soft ground may preclude his chance in this handicap. Chances are his trainer – who wants firm ground for Grandeur – has only entered Sweet Deal as a precaution against the start of the next forty-days and forty-nights. He is highly likely to save Sweet Deal for a more realistic opportunity.
Kempton Racing
5.55:
Jazz reverts to maiden company but runs slap bang into two serious dangers in Middle Park entrant Mushir (said to be useful) and Almargo who is open to improvement for the dreaded Boys In Blue.
Anyone for golf?
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 21st
With so much racing, it is easy to go overboard – just what they want you to do!
At the moment three take the eye:
Let us start at Newbury, where Meteoroid looks potentially well-treated from a mark of 79 in the nursery at 4.05.
At Newmarket, Criteria is taken to progress from a highly promising debut at Goodwood in a warm maiden at 1.55. She looks a decent filly in the making.
William Hill et al are obviously excited beyond belief by the card at Ayr. Soft ground that is drying out and big field handicaps are what their management team dream of in the depths of night.
However, in the 2.40 Yeeoow does present us with an angle of advantage. Third behind Sir Reginald last week at Doncaster in a strong event, allowing for his capable rider’s 5lb allowance, he meets the winner on 7lbs better terms today and has the all-important advantage of a plum draw. Worth a shot in the dark…
Friday 20th Sept.
A Tongue in cheek Preview of Newbury and Ayr Racing Tomorrow
LEAVE IT OUT JOHN…
Anyone can go through cards and talk the talk, hiding behind a hundred selections. The question we all really need answering is: Can I pull up my money?
This in an attempt to find out:
Newbury: 1.30: By this track’s standards, this is a poor maiden. It is hard to be enthusiastic about those that have run and the unraced look potentially ordinary.
Only the representatives from the Cox and Perrett yards – Strategic Force and Excedo Praecedo – make any appeal on paper. As neither yard is particularly synonymous with debutant winners, this race remains something of a mystery at present.
2.00: The second division looks equally uninspiring. Those that have run look moderate at best. It could pay to concentrate on Dark Leopard and Cape Wrath, both of whom have attractive pedigrees and come from powerful yards.
The question remains which way one should lean and, of course, backing a horse you have never seen – and in the flesh turns out to be brown-and-white and suitable to pull a milk float or tow a barge – is never the best of ideas.
2.30: Goodwood Mirage looks likely to handle this step up in trip to 1m 4f (although that has to be confirmed on the racecourse) and is proven on the easy ground. His saddle slipped last time at Ascot so that run can be ignored. A likely winner but hardly well in off 94.
3.05: The next puzzle masquerades as the Class 3 Conditions that is the Dubai Duty Free run over the odd trip of nine furlongs. This is not the only oddity surrounding an event that contains a compliment returning from the dead.
First in the spotlight is last year’s Dante winner Bonfire, now gelded and looking more like a possible for Cheltenham in March than a likely winner on the Flat at Newbury in September.
Questioning looks well named, as does the so-far under-achiever known as Tales Of Grimm (at least if pronounced phonetically), who returns to the track with a new trainer after having finished fifth in the Diomed at Epsom when last seen.
Highest-rated French Navy is probably the safest selection if those two words apply to a Godolphin inmate that comes and goes with the rising and waning of a full-moon.
Add Mujazif to this Macbeth brew constructed for the perverse and you have a race so full of questions, Jeremy Paxman should present it.
3.40: Pupil looked useful and progressive at Doncaster last week, although he took his time to find stride. Supporters will be hoping that was greenness rather than a worrying trait. That win was a step up on his debut here when he disappointed connections in a high-class maiden won by God Willing in which What About Carlo was third.
Pinzolo is hard to assess, but on the face of it has it to do after winning a nondescript Newmarket maiden.
After two promising runs, the unpenalised and Racing Post entry Red Galileo looks ready for this extra yardage.
Having won his maiden at Goodwood, What About Carlo is another that escapes a 3lbs penalty.
A word here to Eve Johnson Houghton: when you have a horse as well treated as What About Carlo appears to be (rated 79) it is advisable to exploit that rating in a nursery before sabotaging it in a race of this nature. Finish last here and unless you are tailed-off, the assessor will take note, leaving you with a horse in no man’s land.
Okay, anyone can shoot off their mouth! I will put myself where mine is: If What About Carlo wins this, then Eve knows so much more about this game than I do that I ought to retire and become her butler free of charge. As a precursor to this new position, I am prepared to offer my services as her naked butler for a day. I am not sure who will benefit most from this offer, or laugh the loudest, but in the belief I shall not need to find out, I make it in good faith!
The well-bred Observational will need to be ultra-smart to take this first time up.
4.15: Lady Lara has earned a high rating after runs in defeat that possibly read better that they were. Ihtimal easily dismissed her last week in the Park Hill and Lady Lara is unlikely to open her account in this.
Fashion Fund’s third to Summer Lightning here is hard to evaluate as the race is sending out mixed messages.
Water Queen is an interesting debutant that, like Observational in the preceding event, will need to be above average to open her account in such company. Despite the penalty, Rosehill Artist may be the one to beat.
4.50: Magic City is on a roll at present. He faces a hike in class against some fragile opponents, namely serial-loser Tawhid, and may be the safest option. The fact remains; this represents his stiffest task to date.
Ayr: 1.20: Well-fancied on his debut in York’s Convivial Stakes, although unable to get to grips with Golden Town there, Derbyshire looked the part. In less testing company, it is tempting to think this well-entered son of the American stallion Green Tune is worth another chance to show his true ability. However, most American-breds excel on fast ground – something he is unlikely to encounter here unless a squadron of helicopters form a nightly fly-past.
1.50: Long on numbers, this nursery may be short on quality. Makin The Rules runs here off the same mark as when second in a competitive event at York. From a handicapping perspective, he must have every chance against ragtag and bobtail opponents. However, the decision to run a Lawman colt over six furlongs when he was running-on over seven last time takes some fathoming.
Newcastle: 2.10: Volume looks the sort to capitalise on a highly promising debut at Newmarket against what appears lesser opposition. Her third to Enraptured was endorsed on Wednesday night when runner-up Psychometry and close up sixth Dancing Sands fought out the finish of a maiden at Kempton. She ought to be good enough, but, and I hate to mention this folks, she is ridden by a girl. Report me for sexism, but it’s my money – so I’m out!
3.50: Moral Issue looks well-treated running off a 6lb penalty for an easy win at Beverley ten days ago. There is a question mark hanging over that form and about this son of Ishiguru handling ground with the word ‘Soft’ in its description.
So, what about bets on the day?
My response is to wonder whether this is an initiative test to enter MI6.
My shortlist is Goodwood Mirage, Pupil or Red Galileo and Derbyshire.
Bets? At this stage: Leave it out John…
BORIS GRIGORIEV TO PAINT AYR RED…
AYR Racing Tips
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 19TH
Today we are in a Las Vegas casino. The bad news is they no longer supply Budweiser on tap, nor food on request. Therefore it is a case of either gawping at fellow gamblers or getting involved in the action. We either play or pass.
As you have reached this far, I assume it is your intention to play. Therefore I suggest spinning the wheel in the 2.40 Ayr where Boris Grigoriev runs from a 20lbs lower mark than when last effective.
There seems little point in documenting previous achievements he almost certainly is no longer capable of matching: suffice to say that a mark of 67 puts him ‘down among the dead men’, especially considering last year he ran to a mark in the high 80s when five lengths behind The Cheka at Doncaster.
Closely weighted with Go Go Green on their running here in August – Boris Grigoriev’s first of the year – it seems reasonable to expect a modicum of improvement on that now.
Disregard his attempts at seven furlongs and a mile, as this horse is a sprinter and returns to his best trip here. His trainer is adept at getting animals such as he well handicapped, which could be the case in this instance.
Boris Grigoriev may be a risky proposition – in truth, his claim is about as watertight as the Costa Concordia – but that remark applies across the cards today and he is seen as worthy of a small wager at a price whilst waiting for the jackpot to fall.
DONCASTER RACING TIPS
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 14th:
2.05:
Doncaster’s big day kicks off with the Group 2 Champagne Stakes, where The Grey Gatsby is taken to come out on top in a tight contest. He is confidently expected to overturn Acomb form with Treaty Of Paris and should account for penalised Anjaal.
A bigger danger is provided by Outstrip, who is arguably the form pick after narrow defeat in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.
However, The Grey Gatsby looked inconvenienced by rattling fast ground at York and still nearly overhauled Treaty Of Paris there despite losing his action two out. Today’s conditions will suit.
3.15:
Given conditions appear ideal, Gregorian is a tempting proposition here. Although there is little between him and Aljamaaheer on form, that rival is unquestionably a better horse on fast ground – something denied to him here. After a decent win at Newbury last time, Gregorian can follow up.
3.50:
Excess Knowledge has been a selection for this for some time and carries a fair degree of stable confidence. His unlucky passage in the Gordon Stakes has been well documented – although, to be frank, the form could have worked out better. His run at Sandown over an inadequate 1m 2f against the useful Mandour, Afsare and David Livingston remains the best piece of overall form on offer, giving him every chance now.
Derby form looks decidedly wobbly and those representing it – Galileo Rock and Libertarian – are overlooked for that reason.
Similarly, Talent’s Oaks win leaves her something to find.
Proven stayer Leading Light is greatly feared. The fact he is given stable precedence over Foundry – who ran so well in the Voltigeur behind Telescope – speaks volumes.
5.00:
Showpiece is raised a very reasonable 6lbs for his Salisbury win over Captain Bob last time. He will be even more effective on this flat galloping track and his overall form reads well, giving him every chance from a handicapping prospective. The step up to a mile for a sprint-bred son of Kyllachy could be a worry.
There are no such worries for What About Carlo who like Showpiece could have sneaked in under the razor wire from a mark of 79. Proven over this trip and on this ground -What About Carlo was an excellent third to God Willing in a maiden at Newbury that looked good at the time and has worked out accordingly.
These are the two runners that make most appeal in the race and we suggest backing What About Carlo and saving on Showpiece.
In Ireland, at the Curragh, mention ought to be made of Alive Alive Oh who runs in the 3.35 Group 2 Blandford Stakes.
Said to be the best filly in Ireland by those purporting to know, they have waited for this ground and she is taken to get the better of Hot Snap.
The day’s bets:
This is not cut and dried. Notebook horses Excess Knowledge and Showpiece have every chance in their respective races, but with a clear line of vision, both face stiff tasks.
As stated, Leading Light and What About Carlo are much feared and, being honest, preferred as they seem more likely to run excuse-free races. At this point in time we suggest the following:
4 each-way doubles:
3.50: Excess Knowledge – Leading Light
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5.00: What About Carlo – Showpiece.
The place part of the bet should pay for the wager.
What About Carlo could be potentially overpriced in the morning and is worth a single bet at morning odds.
The Grey Gatsby, Gregorian and Alive Alive Oh are seen as solid candidates in their events.
DONCASTER RACES
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 13TH
Punters might like to take note of the date before reaching for their wallets today.
However, whilst advising caution, there are three races that might benefit from closer inspection.
1.40: Ambiance lines up here with arguably the best form to his credit.
His latest run in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh was over six – which may not be his best trip. Even so, a four length fourth of five behind Sudirman is on a par with earlier runs behind Brown Sugar at Goodwood, Vorda in the Robert Papin and No Nay Never in the Norfolk. He warrants serious consideration back to five.
It would be remiss of me not to mention the negative side of any argument for him: namely that this will be his eighth attempt of the season and that, let’s face it, he comes from a stable that is hardly renowned for consistency.
Nevertheless, with Windfire’s third in the Lowther looking decidedly dubious, Ambiance is a tentative value alternative. If he is to win something of this nature, this is his chance to do so.
2.40: Last year’s winner and an autumn campaigner, Times Up, shaped well enough in the Yorkshire Cup last month but at the age of seven is surely vulnerable.
High Jinx has been absent since May and was twice beaten by Times Up last year (including in this race).
On the assumption Biographer needed the run when easy to back and behind Royal Empire at Newbury last month, it may pay to give him the benefit of any doubt here. He has a bit to find but should be effective on the ground and over the trip and has always shaped like a possible Cup horse.
3.50: This Listed contest should rest between Be Ready and Barley Mow, both of whom come here after promising efforts at Newbury. There may not be much between them now.
Whereas Barley Mow opened his account with a spirited victory, Be Ready, out of his depth on debut, lined up for the Washington Singer with a lofty reputation and performed with credit.
What we know about these two is that Barley Mow can put his head down and race, whilst Be Ready looks more of a galloper.
With both racing over the same course and distance (different days though) the clock suggests Barley Mow may be the quicker of the two.
Highly regarded at home, he represents a touch of value against the Godolphin talking horse – said to be their best two-year-old.
This is not a day for fearless betting. There are no stand-outs, but it may pay to back the three horses mentioned in a small multiple bet of some sort.
DONCASTER ST LEGER MEETING
Wednesday 11 Sept
2.00: On a day when there are no easy solutions, JAZZ represents our best chance in this nursery. Twice noted achieving his best work in the closing stages of six-furlong handicaps, this step up to seven should suit and he seems feasibly rated from an unchanged mark of 83.
3.00: With comparative youth on his side, Justineo may be good enough here, especially as his stable has hit such a rich vein of form in recent weeks.
4.10: Thank you so much! This tough and tight little event poses plenty of questions.
Returning to the John Gosden stable after a period in Australia, – a fit and ready to run Gatewood would be the form selection back over his optimum trip. In great form, his yard is unlikely to waste such an opportunity so late in the season by leaving a horse short.
Another returning to his best trip is Elkaayed, whose run in the Gordon Stakes can be overlooked as he failed to stay. His form does leave him with something to find, but the Varian yard are in flying form so he is dangerous to dismiss.
No race of this nature would be complete without a Godolphin presence – this time the equation is complicated by the unwilling Ocean War and Out Of Bounds, who was last seen in Dubai early in March. One for the boys at Bletchley Park to solve!
We should know our fate early – JAZZ is the sole selection on the day.
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 7th
(Racing Preview posted at 3pm Friday)
Haydock Racing
2.40:
A 4lbs penalty looks unlikely to prevent the progressive Montiridge (who is proven on the ground, although it may not be ideal) from taking another stride towards a higher level in this Group 3. His price tempers enthusiasm.
3.50: By Dark Angel, Lethal Force is effective in the soft but such a surface is likely to blunt his speed. If he runs, he is sure to be a market drifter. Current conditions look sure to suit Garswood better. He does need to improve but is a selection in view of likely conditions.
Kempton Racing
2.55:
This is a tight handicap but on juvenile form and despite a defeat over course and distance at the end of August when tackling older company for the first time, Seek Again will be hard to beat. Well drawn, he should reverse places with Ehtedaam and confirm with Maverick. He remains a bright prospect.
Of the rest, at a price and back to a winning mark, the tricky Emilio Largo may attract morning support and go well.
Ascot Racing
Ascot looks tough.
At present we appear dependent on the intervention of the Racing Fairy to change its complexity.
Leopardstown Races
A glossy card where, in the 5.15, Free Eagle steps up to Group 3 company – a test, which, judged on his impressive debut and lofty home reputation, he should pass.
6.50:
Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes: A re-run of the Juddmonte International with the first three from York, Declaration Of War, Al Kazeem and Trading Leather joined by The Fugue.
Declaration Of War may be peaking now and therefore is likely to come out on top again, although the inclusion of one-time Derby favourite Kingsbarns adds another ingredient.
Racing Summary
With the ground threatening to play too big a part in proceedings at Haydock and the card at Ascot looking too difficult, in the 2.55 Kempton: Seek Again – with a small morning saver on Emilio Largo – is the day’s suggestion.
GOODWOOD RACES : SEPTEMBER 3rd
It is Goodwood in the sunshine tomorrow with some good racing to match the last of the Pimm’s and those elderflower gins the course is becoming famous for.
Tea In Transvaal will be popular to get off the mark in the 2.55.
However, her Newbury second to Lightning Thunder took something of a knock on Saturday when the fourth from that event – Sound Of Summer – failed to win at Beverley.
Tinga lines up with the best form but this will be run number five, giving rise to the possibility she may not be progressive.
The unraced John Gosden representative – the expensive and well-bred Criteria – could be dangerous.
4.05: Expert has a big chance against this opposition having faced stiffer rivals recently. Crucially he has form on the track – when not disgraced in the Vintage Stakes – and, although not overly generous, a mark of 91 in a run-of-the-mill nursery, means he should be the one to beat.
4.40: This two-mile handicap looks difficult, but then Broxbourne makes any handicap look tricky. Up 5lbs since that win at York, she is an expert at confounding weights and measures and it would seem silly to jump ship now. She is a course winner (counts for a lot here) and should confirm her indolent York placing with Mawaqeet on a 1lbs worse terms. Her big strength is the ability to stay further and whatever her fate here, she remains of interest in the Cesarewitch.
Argent Knight, Waterclock and the unreliable but well-handicapped Martin Chuzzlewit enter calculations, but the biggest threat is likely to come from Mutual Regard, who has a real chance at the weights with Broxbourne on what may be a deceptive line through Homeric.
Wahaab in the 3.30 and Clear Praise in the 5.10 are other possibilities on the day.
Expert is nominated as our best chance.
SATURDAY AUGUST 31st
We arrive at the last day of the month; many claim it to be the last official day of summer. It has been a quiet racing week – a week where most of the action has centred on Westminster.
Here, Messrs Cameron and Hague (Officer Dibble and Dangermouse) managed to achieve what should have been unachievable. In racing parlance, they got Frankel beat.
Despite overwhelming odds in their favour, between them they upset the political applecart when trying to convince a sceptical public it was a good idea to chuck a few missiles at Syria. That just leaves the French and the Americans to believe in such a strategy.
However, as I write, one gets the feeling the French are wavering and the Americans beginning to wonder. Far from being the shrinking violet in all this, although the Italians and the Germans amongst others have quietly dismissed this policy, it is possible the UK will lead the world in perceived logic. It is a shame from the PM’s and Foreign Secretary’s perspective that such thinking originated from the silent majority rather than the so-called clever men at the seat of power, which, incredible though it may be, in their ignorance they seemed to believe they were.
So it is back to the drawing board. Since being in office, Mr Cameron has experienced more u-turns than the contents of a Harpic container. Perhaps he should concentrate on actually running this country. If he is hungry for a skirmish, he could always try squaring up to the Spanish over Gibraltar.
There is no Frankel to beat this Saturday. Possibly the promising Kingman comes closest in betting terms in the Solario Stakes at 2.40 at Sandown. His opponents look below standard for this Group 3 and he created a favourable impression on debut at Newmarket. Already trading short, he should win, but perhaps it is wise to see him again before rushing to take cramped odds.
Lilyfire looks a serious contender in the nursery at 4.25. An attractive, strongly made American-bred daughter of First Defence that is well related, she won her maiden at Ascot in good style. She may have been a tad fortunate to hold Psychometry (who had to overcome a troubled passage), but the form is solid and it seems likely Lilyfire has more to offer. As a filly conceding weight all round, her supporters will be relying on her finding it. She promises to be better than her current mark of 80 suggests.
Sound Of Summer showed enough at Newbury on debut when a promising fourth to Lightning Thunder to attract interest at Beverley in 4.50. Her draw gives her every chance; she should know more now and can take advantage of a drop in class.
Elsewhere on the Yorkshire card, after tackling the Group 1 Nunthorpe last week, Wokingham winner York Glory returns to a more realistic level in the listed event at 2.30. His best form is at six furlongs, but he has every chance over this stiff five and from a favourable draw. That said, backing up so quickly after York, he does not add up to betting material.
At Chester, after two perfectly satisfactory efforts on this tricky track, New Fforest returns with a desirable draw and the benefit of her excellent rider’s claim to help her. No good thing, she is the one to beat in the 2.20.
Later on the card, My Painter may be a short price to win the maiden at 4.40. However, there is a doubt about the strength of the Newmarket event she finished fourth in and it may pay to let her run.
SOUND OF SUMMER and LILYFIRE represent the best opportunities at this stage. More later if the landscape changes.
YORK RACING PREVIEW – DAY FOUR
We come to one of those days when I shall be waking in the morning with added vigour. You know how it can be: some cards just haemorrhage winners. You don’t have to look – they just jump off the page.
Whether the day works out or not, at least I go into it with the right frame of mind. And there is always a cold beer and Jesse Stone at its end. Days like this get the blood pumping. That is good news for bookmakers who like days like this for different reasons.
To an extent, optimism drives this game. Deep down we all believe there will be one day that turns out to be a life-changer. That may be somewhat dramatic; and you could argue it will come when your back is turned. But it won’t come if you don’t play; today, I am a player.
2.05:
Cristoforo Colombo is the class act in this. He has his first run since finishing eight lengths fifth to Dawn Approach in the 2,000 Guineas. All signs point to him not having progressed from two to three, but his overall form should be good enough to see him take this.
At around 7/4 or possibly shorter, I am inclined to feel we can let him win.
2.40:
This is a tight handicap.
There is little between several of these, notably Havana Cooler, Van Percy, Debdebdeb and Great Hall.
However, getting weight pulls with the last two and with Ambleside, from a form perspective, Hawk High comes out best of the bunch. Versatile as regards ground and a consistent sort who will appreciate this return to 1m 6f, at around 16/1, he looks a value selection from his shrewd stable and in first time cheekpieces.
3.15:
Back to six furlongs after a muddling run at Goodwood where he appeared to falter on the track, Parbold narrowly gets the vote. Although it will not be straightforward, his excellent trainer has found the ideal event.
There is a good word for Cable Bay here. Apparently he has improved since Goodwood when beaten by Saayerr, who is now penalised and will struggle to confirm that form.
3.50:
The Ebor may not be the ideal race in which to strap on the betting boots, but within the constraints of this event I am particularly keen on Tiger Cliff.
He looks like the best bet of the day. He produced a big effort in the Ascot Stakes over a trip that almost certainly tested the upper limits of his stamina. Given plenty of time to recover from those exertions, this has always been his mid-summer target. This return to 1m 6f looks sure to suit and he remains unexposed at this level. A classy sort, despite a high draw he should go very well.
Allow me to say I have not gone looking for these bets, but the beauty about them is at these prices, there is no need to throw money at them.
My suggestion is to back Tiger Cliff in the Ebor and maybe roll the dice to an extent with a multiple bet on a couple of the other selections. Personally, I shall not let Hawk High or Parbold run unbacked.
For those of you preferring to stick to message horses, then Cable Bay and possibly Sheikhzayedroad (runs all the way to Abu Dhabi from Dubai) or Caravan Rolls On (again a desert connotation) would be your preferences.
Elsewhere, a couple of snippets that make the other cards interesting.
At Goodwood in the 2.55,Glen Moss has to have every chance of following up after a facile win last week at Newbury. The twelve draw may not be the best but it is not terminal and against that, he runs from a penalty of only 6lbs.
After an easy win over this trip at Salisbury where he proved he is not short of pace, Afsare looks primed to win the Celebration Mile.
However, last time he came here he refused to race and that is not ‘Tom Jones’ for him. He may be a reformed character at present, but on past evidence is not always the best of betting propositions.
At Newmarket, facing a host of expensive unraced juveniles,War Spirit might be worth another chance to show his true ability in the 2.10.
On debut at Goodwood it was muted he was in the premier division at team Hannon. Apparently he threw away his race in the paddock and it could be a different story now.
Morning update
OVERNIGHT RAIN SAVES DAY:
Overnight rain has changed the ground at York to good to soft. Therefore a host of non-runners is avoided due to very quick conditions.
This ground has swung in the favour of Pavlosk – who can now be backed with some confidence in the 3.05 Strensall Stakes. The worry that the ground may have scuppered her chances has now passed and the filly has every chance in this Group 3 contest.
She is not running unfancied …
Elsewhere at York, the ground should improve Simenon’s chances in the 2.30, where his main danger still appears to be Ahzeemah.
It should also ensure the Nunthorpe is a more competitive event with the obvious advantage of fast ground for Shea Shea now removed. He remains the one to beat.
In the Convivial at 4.20, there are positive messages for Red Galileo and for the debutant, Derbyshire.
This greatly tempers confidence for Golden Town who, slightly worryingly, wears a tongue tie today on only his second run. After such a promising debut, he may still win, but the sole bet from this quarter today is for the filly Pavlosk. She is likely to be the subject of support this morning.
Evening Preview …
YORK – DAY THREE
Lonsdale Cup (Group 2):
7/4 SIMENON
4 AHZEEMAH
9/2 CAUCUS
6 TIMES UP
12 COLOUR VISION
40 GLEN’S DIAMOND
50 ASKAR TAU
100%
This may look easy enough on the face of it; however, as is so often the case when assessing staying races, not all may be as it appears.
Hugely consistent Simenon is the obvious selection without looking a good thing. Juice in the ground would aid his cause but he looks poised to run well.
Consistency seems to be Ahzeemah’s strong suit and his overall form suggests he presents the biggest threat.
Forget the run of Caucus in the Goodwood Cup – where he failed to act on the track – and on his Sandown win and his second to Estimate at Ascot, he is once again in the firing line.
Times Up peaked at this time last year (winning this, following up in the Doncaster Cup) but has offered little encouragement so far this term and will be tested in this field in any case;
Colour Vision has yet to recover the form he showed last year – notably when winning the Ascot Gold Cup – and is hard to fancy.
Strensall Stakes (Group 3):
5/2 PAVLOSK
3 ARCHBISHOP
5 CITY STYLE
8 GABRIAL
12 DANADANA
16 ROBIN HOODS BAY
20 RED AVENGER
100%
With a drop of overnight rain, Pavlosk would be a 2/1 chance and worth backing. She took the eye at Goodwood over an inadequate seven furlongs last time and will relish this step up in trip. A winner at Newbury in April on good to soft, then here in May in the soft, she was outclassed but not disgraced by Sky Lantern in the Coronation at Ascot and served notice last time that a return to winning ways was imminent. She is at her best with juice in the ground, so it is a case of keeping an eye skyward before deciding whether to bet. If conditions fail to favour her here, she is worth bearing in mind for an autumn campaign.
Archbishop looks the biggest danger on his excellent Goodwood form when dead-heating with Trumpet Major and finishing marginally in front of high class Aljamaaheer last year. Not seen since running in Istanbul last September, a question mark hangs over him. For reasons expressed, it is entirely possible there will be weakness in the front two in the market. Therefore, a move for anything else should not come as a surprise.
Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1):
Plenty of contenders here have tried their luck at this grade without actually getting their heads in front.
With scant Group 1 form to call upon, back to the minimum trip on their preferred fast surface and on prevailing conditions, it is hard to steer away from Shea Shea and Sole Power.
These globetrotters are highly capable in this grade, Shea Shea having a narrow advantage on form.
Moviesta attempts to step up from a Group 2 victory at Goodwood and needs to pull out more in this company. However, with the other two drawn on the far side, taking the flimsy evidence of the draw that is available at this meeting so far, he may find himself best berthed to attack under the stand rail. Unless there is a marked change in the ground, the winner should come from these three with Shea Shea holding the call.
Convivial Stakes (Class 2):
The key race to this appears to be the maiden at Goodwood won by Snow Trouble, with the second, third and fourth all in opposition once again. The Goodwood event looked a strong one at the time, with plenty of fancied horses lining up.
Master The World was second, but in contrast to Golden Town,had the run of the race. He may struggle to confirm placings.
Tahadee was another to shape well in third, but it was the slow-starting Golden Town, finishing best of all in fourth that took the eye.
He looked a ready-made winner, but, slightly worryingly, connections reach for the tongue-tie now. Is it me – or is it hard to be confident about Godolphin representatives these days? They might look all right in Kempton maidens but not many make an impact at this level.
Add to that the fact Saturday’s Washington Singer runner-up, Be Ready was touted as far and away their best juvenile, and confidence is tempered here. We have to add Red Galileo into the mix after a promising debut at Newmarket.
As it stands, I wish I could impart more confidence about a card I feel we should be capable of cracking.
Notebook horse Pavlosk will surely pay for herself before the end of the season but is ground-dependent.
I am reluctant to recommend the other notebook horse, Golden Town, after the appalling run of stable mate First Flight on Wednesday.
I incline towards Shea Shea in the Nunthorpe but remain undecided in the Lonsdale Cup.
Perhaps it is wisest to see what the weather does between now and race time and we can look again when we know the state of the ground. Keep in touch with us here on this website and should the cloudy become clearer, we will post a message to that effect.
YORK – DAY TWO
By any standards this is a tricky card, made all the more so by the fact that four of the six events are confined to fillies.
The first and last races bookending the card look too difficult at this stage, so it may pay to concentrate on those in-between.
Lowther Stakes Group 2
10/3 J WONDER
7/2 WIND FIRE
4 LUCKY KRISTALE
8 QUEEN CATRINE
12 MERLETTA
12 REROUTE
20 KAIULANI
50 ALUTIQ
66 AZAGAL
100%
J Wonder takes a step up in class here after landing a nursery at Newmarket from a mark of 79. That suggests she has something to find but she has always been considered a Group filly so this is her chance to prove it.
Wind Fire ran tamely over this trip at Ascot following her good effort at the Royal meeting behind No Nay Never – the best form on offer. Last week’s win at Newbury once again suggests six should suit, but she is turned out quickly.
Lucky Kristale has to defy a penalty (never easy in this company). There is the suspicion she may have met Rizeena on an off day when beating her in the Cherry Hinton.
The rest look as if they will struggle; although if there is to be a market mover from outside the obvious it could be Merletta, who is held in high regard at home and thought to be better than so far shown. Clearly, she will need to be.
3.05: Class 2 Handicap:
For once, Wentworth has been handed a good draw. At Goodwood he looked a Group horse in the making – winning with plenty in hand – and he should confirm placings with Sandagiyr.
It is hard to nominate an alternative to Wentworth, who looks solid.
Validus may be capable of better back to this trip.
Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1)
3 THE FUGUE
7/2 VENUS DE MILO
9/2 WILD COCO
9 SECRET GESTURE
12 EMIRATES QUEEN
12 SCINTILLULA
14 RIPOSTE
40 MOMENT IN TIME
100%
There are plenty of questions to answer here.
Firstly, all of The Fugue’s best form is at ten furlongs. She has been beaten on all three occasions she has attempted this trip, including in this event last year. The ground is in her favour and her stable in great heart, but she has to put a bad run in the Eclipse behind her.
Wild Coco will probably struggle on ground this quick; otherwise she would have been the call.
Venus De Milo is progressing and does not need to improve much to snatch this.
The rest all have a smattering of form that give them a chance in a race that makes little betting appeal. The market could be a major guide.
Galtres Stakes (Listed)
4 SAY
9/2 STAR LAHIB
5 SONGBIRD
7 OUR OBSESSION
12 CUSHION
12 LADY NOUF
20 COQUET
20 JATHABAH
33 BITE OF THE CHERRY
50 BOHEMIAN DANCE
66 EASTERN DESTINY
66 RIO’S ROSANNA
100%
Once again, this is a tricky event.
Say has only a moderate Cork maiden to her name. Although that was over today’s trip, her best form (2nd to Dank) was over nine furlongs and is there is a suggestion this trip may stretch her stamina.
Songbird may have reached the limit of her capabilities last time but is still an interesting prospect. That also applies to Our Obsession.
However, the solid candidate appears to be Star Lahib who may lack the high profile of some of these, but seems less complicated. She could be the call.
This looks a tricky day. At this stage I am tempted by Star Lahiband nominate Wentworth as the other possible. I suggest stakes be kept to a minimum as it is a long week and better opportunities will surely present themselves.
YORK DAY ONE …
York’s opening day has all the hallmarks of being busy – at least as far as we are concerned. With two Notebook runners reappearing along with a couple of betting opportunities rearing their (hopefully not ugly) heads, the stage is set to do some serious damage one way or another!
Following on from 100% tissue prices issued at the weekend for the Juddmonte International, I thought I would apply them to three of the supporting events on today’s card.
Let us start with the Acomb Stakes at 2.30:
- 7/4 THE GREY GATSBY
- 2 FIRST FLIGHT
- 11/2 BRAZOS
- 8 IL PAPARAZZI
- 40 TREATY OF PARIS
- 66 LADY LARA
- 100%
The Grey Gatsby lines up with the best form credentials having beaten Goodwood winner Brazos impressively on debut. He looks a decent sort.
First Flight went into the Notebook after a visually impressive win at Newbury when he recovered from a sluggish start to quicken past his field. The problem is the form has taken two knocks.
Decimus Maximus (beaten over 10 lengths at Newbury) was beaten even further last week when behind Showpiece at Salisbury. Newbury third Sandy Cove was only third on Monday at Windsor, so visually appealing though he was on debut, First Flight’s has to improve again. At around the 2/1 mark he makes limited appeal.
Brazos looked as if he had done exceptionally well since York last time when winning at Goodwood. Although he has work to do to beat The Great Gatsby and is unlikely to do so, it would be unwise to rule him out entirely.
Il Paparazzi is another unlikely winner but the fact remains he did beat two subsequent winners over this track last time.
The other two cannot win.
Essentially, this should rest between The Grey Gatsby and First Flight; but as it is not possible to discard the next two in, neither makes any betting appeal.
3.05 The Great Voltigeur Stakes:
6/5 TELESCOPE
9/2 CAP O’ RUSHES
8 FOUNDRY
10 WILLIE THE WHIPPER
10 SECRET NUMBER
16 NICHOLS CANYON
50 SPILLWAY
100%
Although beaten last time, there was nothing wrong with Telescope’s run behind the useful David Livingstone. Now back against his own age and upped in trip, he can win this.
A strict interpretation of the Goodwood win of Cap O’ Rushes (on a line through Excess Knowledge and David Livingstone) means he is entitled to beat the selection. However, we all know he was a fortunate winner of the Gordon Stakes and clearly David Livingstone improved for the Sandown outing on which this dubious premise is based. Cap O’ Rushes has his work cut out against the classy Telescope.
Foundry has not been seen since winning a maiden in Leopardstown in November. There is nothing especially eye-catching about that run and vibes suggest that remark reflects his chance here.
Nothing else makes any appeal. Secret Number was unlucky to an extent at Goodwood although in any event would not have won. That also goes for Spillway. The overall form of Nichols Canyon gives him something to find. Willie The Whipper, who appears to stay well and handle soft, has bits of half-decent form in France. He could be the surprise package, but it takes a leap of faith to back him. TELESCOPE is a confident selection.
3.40 Juddmonte International Stakes:
6/4 AL KAZEEM
6/4 TORONADO
12 TRADING LEATHER
16 DECLARATION OF WAR
16 HILLSTAR
1000 REWARDED
100%
I am sticking to my Sunday prices for this event and nominate TORONADO as the winner. A line through Declaration Of War gives him the beating of Al Kazeem.
The only negative is the trip – you do have to take his ability to stay on trust. I believe he will and that he will also stamp himself as one of the best of this year’s Classic generation by taking this.
4.20 Class 2 Handicap – 2m:
6 BROXBOURNE
7 HOMERIC
10 SURAJ
14 EAGLE ROCK
14 FLASHMAN
14 MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT
14 PARTY LINE
16 MAWAQEET
16 WILLIE WAGTAIL
16 WYBORNE
20 ALL THE ACES
25 JONNY DELTA
25 NOBLE SILK
33 BLUE BAJAN
33 CRACKENTORP
33 HIGH OFFICE
33 VIKING STORM
106%
(It is impractical to bet to 100% on a seventeen runner handicap, but I have come close and the remaining percentage could still be achieved with a little tweaking. However, in that case, it is unlikely to identify a possible bet.)
Seemingly progressive Broxbourne turns out again after winning at Goodwood and having her chances sabotaged by her New Zealand lady rider at Ascot.
Reunited with Joe Fanning, who was superb on her at Goodwood, she looks guaranteed to run well. She is a Notebook horse mainly because now she has proved she stays beyond two miles, she would be a major player in an event such as the Cesarewitch where lack of stamina is the downfall of many a contender.
She remains closely weighted with Homeric. Inclined to doss in the middle part of her races, her regular jockey can be relied upon to ride her with that in mind. Expect her to be a late closer.
Of her opponents, most are exposed. However, if reproducing his Goodwood run of last time from the same mark of 93, Suraj would go close. He is not one of the most reliable of characters but has always harboured ability. He may have turned a corner or two since disappointing last season when at one time considered as a possible St Leger candidate.
Similarly, the under-achieving Martin Chuzzlewit is another attractively weighted but his ability to stay this trip cannot be taken for granted.
BROXBOURNE has every chance and is worth a small bet, although an interest in SURAJ at morning prices is also recommended.
It is my intention to back Telescope, Toronado and to play for small money in the above handicap. Therefore, I will be hitting the ground running early in the week. I only hope to be standing by its end!