Based on races viewed, Spy’s analysis and list of horses worthy of serious consideration next time:

SATURDAY DECEMBER 27TH:

Kempton: 12.40: With a 10lbs weight turnaround in his favour for three-quarters of a length, it seems reasonable to expect Storm Force Ten to reverse Sandown form with Bivouac here. Apparently he has flourished since his debut over timber and, a decent performer on the Flat, is expected to open his account now. Bivouac cannot be dismissed out of hand, neither can French import San Benedeto, but after what was an encouraging start, Storm Force Ten gets his chance to leapfrog a few places in Triumph Hurdle market.

Chepstow: 1.55: As a Grade 1 trial, this promises to provide plenty of Cheltenham clues. Golden Doyen will find this a tougher assignment than his Cheltenham victory last time when inching out Hargam. Old Guard beat two highly fancied rivals on debut and improvement will make him a serious candidate. Assuming the Sandown form is not let down in the opener at Kempton, Baron Alco was probably attempting a mammoth task when trying to conceded 10lbs to Bivouac and Storm Force Ten last time. Not disgraced in defeat and a winner on this type of ground, he is nominated as a value alternative to some more obvious contenders.

SATURDAY DECEMBER 27TH
BOXING DAY FRIDAY DECEMBER 26TH:

Kempton: 12.50: Although not foot perfect at Cork when comfortably accounting for his rivals on debut, with decent form on the Flat in France (including when third in listed company) Sempre Medici appeals as having greater scope than recent Newbury winner Jollyallan. With a clear round the Irish representative can strike an early blow for the Walsh/Mullins combination, although the booking of Barry Geraghty for newcomer and ex-Godolphin Zip Top (presumably in preference to the Henderson-trained Bringithomeminty) sounds a note of caution.

1.25: In what looks like a tricky handicap, Quite By Chance might be worth chancing. His three runs this season all hint at progression. A second to subsequent Ascot winner Dance Floor King at Wincanton over two miles before shrugging off a 2lbs higher mark over today’s trip suggests connections may have something up their sleeves from today’s revised rating.

2.00: Style threatens to give way to substance here. In the face of a strong challenge from several with a similar if not a better profile, short-price favourite Saphir Du Rheu (who surely has a future over fences whatever transpires in this) will not have everything his own way in this Grade 1. His stable-mate, the hat-trick-seeking Virak, along with Carriag Mor – who looked a natural over fences at Newbury last time – appeal as the two most likely to test him to the limit, but the inclusion of back-from-the-dead Coneygree and to a lesser extent Sausolito Sunrise mean this is a race that will take plenty of winning.

2.35: All eyes will focus on Faugheen here. Odds-on, he should maintain an unbeaten record. Even so those looking for an alibi to get him beaten might point to his record, which leans towards him being more effective over two miles plus than two miles dead – particularly over a sharp track like Kempton. Only Irving and Sign Of A Victory can be nominated as potential dangers, and on all known form they do have something to find. Impressive as Sign Of A Victory was at Ascot last time when beating Dawalan, the runner-up is better over further. However, Sign Of A Victory missed the Ladbroke last week for this and should not be underestimated.

3.10: This showcase event would be greatly simplified if we could label Champagne Fever as a true contender that is worthy of his current place in the betting at this level. The trouble is, in all honesty we can’t: he still has to prove he is good enough to mix it with the quality of opponent he faces here. Five starts over fences down the line, smart and up-and-coming chaser that he is, this will be his first attempt at a Grade 1 outside novice company. He is also unproven over this trip. As he holds the rest of the field on various previous runs, Silviniaco Conti looks solid. As doubts (however minor) exist over the second-favourite, some might say last year’s winner is bombproof. This reasoning is largely sound. As Champagne Fever is the only wild card in the line-up, Silviniaco Conti really ought to win. With stamina doubts persisting over Al Ferof, an in-form Menorah and Dynaste look most likely to pick up any pieces but there is no logical reason why either should beat an on-song Silviniaco Conti. Even so I am reluctant to commit to a horse that has flopped before. Whilst fully appreciating many will disagree, sometimes you have to accept certain horses will always outfox you. Such is Silviniaco Conti as far as I am concerned. Never having backed him when he has won, but the recipient of his bad days, I feel inclined to look away from the mouth of what many will probably rightfully describe as a gift horse.

3.45: The Pipe yard could easily do a Batavir (runs from a penalty at Wincanton but faces much stiffer opposition this time than when winning at Ascot last week) with Alternatif, who should be effective at this trip. Hawaii Five Nil is another likely to improve for this extra yardage and should not be readily discarded despite the apparent lack-lustre form currently shown by his stable.

ASCOT SATURDAY DECEMBER 20TH:

1.15: Receiving 3lbs from Irish Saint it is entirely possible that Puffin Billy, who reserves his best for this track, may be good enough to thwart those looking to take cramped odds about the likely favourite.

2.25: Described as being in great heart since winning a Grade 1 at Auteuil in November, Zarkandar, who cannot always be relied upon when the cash is down, is a warm favourite for the Long Walk. It is a race within his grasp but there are better 5/4 chances to be found. Medinas looked to have won a tactical contest last time, Reve De Sivola will need to wind the clock back to score but Aubusson is not far off the required standard and this improving five-year-old could be the one connections of Zarkandar should fear most.

3.00: On a day lacking any definitive bets, The Young Master is only a tentative selection in this listed handicap. Raised 14lbs for a race that was taken from him due to his trainer’s carelessness, he lines up under inauspicious circumstances but does appear to jump proficiently and still receives lumps of weight from the three above him in the handicap, all of whom will need to raise their game in a similar manner.

3.30: He may be at the wrong end of the handicap to be a blot, but the classy Bayan is certainly one of the more interesting contenders in The Ladbroke. With the speed to win over two miles but a close third in the Coral Cup over three to Whisper at Cheltenham in March, the versatile five-year-old seems impervious to ground and should be in the mix. Shelford looks well-treated but his two hurdle wins have come at further and this trip combined with inexperience may find him out. Actival reappears after flirting with Triumph Hurdle candidates last season but again, as only a four-year-old with limited experience, he has a bit to prove at this level. At the foot of the weights Clondaw Warrior’s third in the Greatwood may stand him in good stead now and he is feared most in a race that may be dominated by the Irish.

FRIDAY DECEMBER 19TH:

Small but select fields line up at Ascot with the possibility of one betting opportunity.
After a satisfactory debut over hurdles at Cheltenham, a drop in grade ought to allow Champagne Present to get off the mark in the 12.50, although at likely odds he fails to appeal as a betting proposition.
Although only four turn out for the Grade 2 hurdle at 1.55 it looks like a case of perming any one from three. L’Ami Serge, Emerging Talent and Killultagh Vic (the pick of nine five-day entries for the Mullins stable) represent classy recruits and more should be heard of them in the coming months.
In the Grade 2 novice chase Dunraven Storm has the established form over fences but faces a stiff task in conceding weight to last year’s Ladbroke runner-up Ptit Zig, who has won twice over the bigger obstacles but faces a stiffer test now – and more especially Josses Hill, who did nothing but improve over hurdles last season. If capable of transferring his form over timber to this sphere, Josses Hill, already considered a possible candidate for the Arkle, has the class to stamp his authority on this field. Considering the stable he represents, he is sure to have been well schooled.
A winner over 2m 4f over hurdles in France, Batavir should not be judged too harshly after failing to cope with Rock On Rocky over two miles on his British debut at Leicester last month. Likely to be sharper for the experience, this step up in trip looks guaranteed to suit and he is taken to open his account from what could be a lenient mark of 119 in the Class 3 handicap hurdle.

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 17TH:

Newbury stage their pre-Christmas meeting tomorrow, which makes something of welcome change from the usual offerings we are subjected to mid-week; the problem from a betting point of view though is that in order to solve any of the races a great deal of guesswork is required.
Hard on the heels of the bacon and eggs at 12.10 the juvenile hurdle is a case in point. Trendsetter and Blue Atlantic set a modest standard. Blue Atlantic’s failure to defy a penalty at Market Rasen suggests he may be equally pressed here. On balance Trendsetter’s third at Wetherby looks to represent better form but is only ordinary. Zarib and Jalingo look likely recruits from the Flat whilst ex-French import Winner Massagot looks to have an ideal hurdling profile.

12.40: On these terms Astigos (a long-standing maiden that is hanging on to that status for grim death) has a length in hand of Minella On Line after their close third and fourth to Big Hands Harry in a messy Ascot event last month. It is early days to pronounce judgement on the Ascot race (either the winner – who all but threw the race away but still prevailed – is destined for much better, or it was a case of him emerging best of a modest bunch). On hurdling evidence Minella On Line has a touch of the slows and makes as much appeal as Astigos. Chase The Spud is the one in this field that could have something to offer. A six length winner of his only chase at Exeter, a rise of eight pounds gives him every chance if he can reproduce that promise.

1.10: This looks a weak affair. Communicator may get away with it but he is hardly convincing. Ffos Las bumper winner Beast Of Burden, who landed a gamble in the process, could be a cut above these.

2.45: After two knotty chases, the wild card is back in action in the novice hurdle. Winner of two bumpers and a Ludlow hurdle, Jack Frost has the benefit of his regular rider’s 3lbs claim to help but still has to concede weight all round, which for a four-year-old looks taxing. Winner of an Irish point Monbeg Gold could be interesting. Having finished third in a Grade 1 N/H Flat race at Punchestown in April when last seen, Value At Risk lines up with a more conventional profile and clearly has ability. If he takes to hurdles he could be too classy.
Right now we are throwing the cards up in the air and seeing which way they land. Currently weighed down by imponderables, it seems they are landing in a haphazard fashion after each throw. But it is not all doom and gloom. A few clues here and there could totally transform the rise and fall by tomorrow and possibly pave the way for a small wager…

SATURDAY DECEMBER 13TH:

Cheltenham: 12.15: Having created a favourable impression on his debut over hurdles in a similar JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, French import and smart ex-French Flat performer Hargam gets his chance to stamp his claim at top juvenile hurdle level here. A strict line through Golden Doyen does give him a few pounds to find with Karezak, but the signs are this sounder surface will play to Hargam’s strengths and that normal improvement from his debut should be enough. Previous winners Stars Over The Sea and Mr Gallivanter have impressed in lesser company but face stiffer tasks with penalties. This appears to present Hargam with the ideal opportunity. Karezak looks his biggest danger.

12.50: Faced with likelihood that his main threat Virak will be diverted to Doncaster (weather permitting), the way to victory has been smoothed for Champagne West who impressed here last month on his chasing debut and who should follow up now.

1.25: For a four-year-old having only his third outing over fences but his second in a handicap, Solar Impulse jumped like a seasoned veteran at Newbury when narrowly beaten by Monetaire on Hennessy day. Despite a 5lbs rise, he is improving quickly and looks capable of beating opponents that by and large have no secrets.

2.00: Although only raised 5lb for his Paddy Power success, a lofty weight perch threatens to make this a much harder task for Caid Du Berlais. Nominating dangers should be easy but in fact from a weight perspective only Barrakilla (who is entitled to improve for his latest run at Sandown – his first for ten months), Attaglance and Workbench appeal as alternatives.

2.35: This promises to be a closely fought contest between Blaklion, Binge Drinker and Parish Business with preference accorded to the first two mentioned in that order. However, with Port Melon a contender after finishing only just behind Blaklion last time, without the benefit of an edge this is a race to watch.

3.10: It is impossible to look beyond The New One and Vaniteux in the Grade 2 hurdle designed to provide a clue to the Champion in March. A smart novice last year and narrowly beaten under top weight in the Greatwood, in receipt of 8lbs Vaniteux represents a serious threat to The New One. Described by Nicky Henderson as his only possible contender for Cheltenham’s hurdling crown, Vaniteux will not have many better opportunities to stake his claim. Although impressive at Haydock last month, The New One will need to produce more against a stiffer opponent this time.

3.45: Back to hurdles we have to assume Rock On Ruby will win this … but, is he a horse one should risk cash on? The oldest in the field, he faces rivals that may not be as good as he is, or that will ever aspire to his record, but younger legs often work harder and longer.

FRIDAY DECEMBER 12TH:

As Christmas speeds ever closer, and to an extent with every penny accounted for, there is no room for sentimentality or sloppiness when it comes to risking capital on gambling right now. Of course such an ethos should be advocated all year round, but when all betting guns are ablaze, there are occasions when cases can be made for throw-away bets. Right now, with the staging of some dire mid-week cards that offer little opportunity of restoring any mistakes or setbacks, this is not one of them. The margin for error is set at a low level and only serious betting propositions should be considered during this period.

Tipping winners is not enough right now: the question is – are the tips bets? On the approach to Kempton on Boxing Day, we have two days this week to sort something out and put ammunition in the betting armoury…

CHELTENHAM: 12.30: Kings Palace ought to confirm placings with Sausalito Sunrise on 8lbs worse terms but a better round of jumping from his rival could press the issue. In this four-horse contest Return Spring enters the equation, whilst chasing newcomer Vivaldi Collonges cannot be ruled out. So class act or not, on only his second attempt over fences, at shades of odds-on Kings Palace looks like one to cheer politely from the stands.

1.05: This handicap for conditional riders makes no betting appeal. With the aid of a capable claimer, Hollow Blue Sky should improve on his last run here for this step back up in trip but needs to in order to justify support.

1.40: Representing powerful yards it is always possible Lough Kent and Street Entertainer may be about to strike at this sort of level, but Vintage Vinnie and Gohar line up as possible contenders that could just be underestimated. Guessing the outcome between these four could be a thankless task.

2.10: Having defied the handicapper twice this season after comfortable wins at Warwick at Leicester, running on a penalty means that despite being 4lbs out of the weights, The Ould Lad could easily rack up the hat-trick in this slog over an extended three miles. He looks the logical selection in what is not a particularly strong event; however, his chance would be compromised if the ground eased dramatically. This is a race chock-full of imponderables. Hadrians Approach and Lamb Or Cod make limited appeal, although victory from either would not exactly shock. As it stands, Samstown, Charingworth or Cowards Close look more likely winners.

3.15: Even on revised terms with Invicta Lake, Big Easy will be popular to confirm their running over this course in November, particularly over this slightly shorter trip. That said, this will be Big Easy’s fourth run in what has to be considered quick succession by his standards, which should be a worry to his supporters. A sharper round of hurdling would present Invicta Lake with a clear chance now, whilst Guiding George and Ulzana’s Raid have to be included in calculations.

3.45: Perhaps the best opportunity on the day lurks in the concluding novice hurdle. Lightly-raced but looking likely to repay at least part of an expensive price tag on debut when second to the more than useful Shantou Bob with subsequent Ascot winner Fletchers Flyer a close third, Padge looks primed to open his account now. By Cheltenham standards this is not a strong novice and it will be a disappointment to all concerned should Padge not win or go close. By and large his opponents appear beatable and the selection and suggested sole bet on the card has the look of a price-mover come tomorrow.

SATURDAY DECEMBER 6TH:

Aintree: 2.05: Having given the impression he was struggling, Dawalan stayed on strongly last time to finish a close fourth at Haydock to the progressive On Tour in similar conditions to today. Sneaked up a further pound by the handicapper, this extended trip looks to be his forte and he is taken to strike after three runs this season – every one of which reads well and suggests he is a winner waiting to happen.

3.15: Although no easy race, everything is right for Hunt Ball who ran better than indicated by his placing at Ascot over hurdles last time. This is a realistic target and he should at least acquit himself well despite a steadying weight.

Sandown: 1.20: Cup Final has the look of a well handicapped hurdler and the rise of a 1lb after what was an encouraging handicap debut at Cheltenham last month means he races from a reasonable mark of 127 now. This trip should suit him well.

Nicky Henderson has his team in excellent shape and it is entirely possible he will walk away with major prize-money today. With two big chances at Aintree and further opportunities on this card, Sweet Deal in the 2.25 and Oscar Whisky in the featured Tingle Creek cannot be ignored. Reported to be in terrific shape after what was almost a weight-busting attempt in the Paddy Power, Oscar Whisky faces slightly sub-standard opponents for a race of this stature and looks sure to make his presence felt. The only worry is this trip of two miles, which might be on the sharp side and find him out. There is little between the younger duo that is God’s Own and Balder Succes based on their two recent meetings. They could have the edge but Oscar Whisky cannot be safely ruled out. Dodging Bullets looks too soft to be a confident call at this level and surely Somersby’s days in Grade 1s are over.