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Welcome!

Here you  and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names.

After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on.

This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy.

Passwords will be sent by text each week

Regards

Bob

Week 24 Profit £27,380.00 Detailed Horse Racing Results

£27,380.00 Profit! The Champagne corks

 were popping in the Rothman household last week!

What a week! We started off with a wonderful near maximum bet winner, with 40 points on Kinigi. In one swoop we’d wiped out all losses from the previous week with a profit on top.

… and then followed that winner up with two more handsome wins at 100/30 and 7/1!  It was stunning day and we’d turned round the previous dry spell with a fantastic £16,800 winning day, one of our best!

When you’re betting good horses you can

go from “drought” to “flood” in days!

That’s one of the most amazing aspects of gambling for a living. You can have a dry spell and be scratching your head wondering when the next winner will ever come! Frankly it’s hard not to lose confidence. We all do and the challenge is that if you lose your confidence your betting goes to pieces. You may start having too much on big priced horses trying to win it all back in one hit. And equally badly there a tendency to scale back big bets on short priced horses. If you just been losing it’s easy to get “gun-shy” and become scared of losing more. So instead of a nice 20 point win on a 6/4 chance you end up having a poxy 4pt win because you can’t stomach a 20 point loss.

Somehow it seems easier to have a few 3 and 4 pt ew bets on big priced horses hoping to fluke a 20 or 30 point win. It doesn’t work and you’ll only ever show a profit in the long run if you stick to a sound staking plan. You know my views on level stake staking. It sucks and it’s for amateur professionals or people who don’t have the time to study and analyse races properly.

The only time it might be appropriate to use level stakes is if you are blindly following a system. Systems don’t differentiate between good, great and stunning bets. They are all the same to a system. But if you get good information, know something about form and ability ratings, can read a race and understand basic principles of handicapping and perhaps have software to help you get it all done quicker then the more complex variable staking methods can work wonders for you. Of course in your case I do it for you and just deliver the end result ie a bet of “x” points at odds of “y”. But there’s nothing stopping you doing it yourself and comparing your deliberations to mine. I’m certainly not infallible and there’s plenty of race handicappers who can read races a lot better than I can. (That’s why I employ a couple to help me out!)

Intelligent Variable staking is a Power Betting Tool

Apart from our information I believe our staking plan delivers a unique advantage and maximises our profits. It’s made fantastic profits for me for years, but I will admit it takes a heck of a lot of work. Instead of the one-size-fits-all simplistic approach of level stakes, our bets are tailor made for each race. Each race has to be studied carefully and the form and messages for all the horse in the race taken into context. And this leads nicely on to a subject I’d like to discuss very briefly. Messages from stables that can lead you astray. Let me give you a hypothetical example to illustrate…

The one mistake stable’s make which

 you must protect yourself from

I don’t know if you’ve ever subscribed to other tipping services but I suspect you may have. Or picked up juicy tips from your own stable contacts. Maybe you know an owner? Maybe you are an owner?

The biggest mistake most stables make in my opinion is not properly evaluating their horses ability IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RACE.

For example a small stable has a horse they call “Superstar”

Superstar  has never run before so they’re not sure how good he is. But he destroys all their other horses on the gallops. All the stable lads love him. They’ve been saving up their weekly wages to back it when it runs. And why not? After all they’ve seen with their own eyes how easily it beats everything at home.

The problem is the stable is a small stable and don’t have any really good horses to test its mettle against. They have say 20 horses and they are all rated between 40 and 60.

Let’s say the second best horse in the yard is called Seaside Donkey, and he’s rated 60. Superstar beats Seaside Donkey by 3 lengths when they gallop at home and the other horses in the stable are some way behind these two.

Now the work looks great to anyone watching. But looking at it logically, unemotionally, all you can really say is Superstar is 3 lengths better than Seaside Donkey … which means he’s 3 lengths better than a 60 rated horse.

Over 5 furlongs a length is general accepted to be worth 3lbs. So Superstar is 3 lengths x 3lbs or 9lbs superior to Seaside Donkey. Ie Superstar is a 69 horse)

Ok so now comes the day when Superstar goes to the races.

They enter it in a maiden at Newmarket even though the powerful Newmarket yards have runners there too. But they figure their best horse should go and run in a decent race to show how good it is!

In this race most of the horses are no-hopers but there are 3 possible dark horses who are all unraced but hail from big powerful stables.  Somehow you’ve managed find out what the word on the street is … and that word is that none of the Newmarket horses are “fancied”

Why not?

Well each of the powerful stables tell you their horse is “rubbish” because he finishes last in his work group. Horses often work in groups of 3 so you might sensibly ask the question “What are the other horses rated in the work group?” before you take this rumour as gospel and fall into the trap that so many people are going to today.

Stable 1 tell you the work group consists of a slow Horse  called Plodder and two 90 rated horses.

Stable 2 tell you their work group consist of 2 95 horses and a slow horse called Sloth.

Stable 3’s work group consists of one slow horse called Dawdler and two 110 horses.

Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler finish last in their groups  and are each beaten say 5 lengths by their quicker companions. That’s a long way to be beaten and that’s why the lads from these stables think these horses aren’t very good.

Calculate the ability of an unraced horse

by comparing it to the horses it works with …

Plodder is approximately a 75 horse, as he works 5 lengths behind two 90 rated horse. 5 lengths x 3lbs equals 15 lbs. Deduct 15lbs from the 90 rating of his companions and you arrive at a figure of around 75 for his ability ie 90-15=75.

Sloth is approximately an 80 horse (15lbs behind two 95 horses, 95-15=80) and Dawdler is a 95 horse (15lbs inferior to two 100 horses, 110-15 =95)

In the powerful stables’ work groups the horses finishing last in the work groups look poor in comparison to their illustrious stable companions. But they can be different class to the best horse in a small stable.

So if you blindly follow stable messages you’ll think the race consists of three slow horses with little chance (Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler, actual ability levels 75, 80 and 95) and one good horse called Superstar (actual ability 69)

Rate horses by their ability either on the racetrack or on home gallops … not on racecourse rumours

Superstar could end up being a hot favourite because of (incorrect) racecourse rumours about how brilliant he is whereas Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler may become attractive betting propositions at bigger odds and will probably even drift in the betting. Horses like this can become stunning each way bets!

If the race follows gallops work at home the 3 “slow” horses  will finish 1st 2nd and 3rd! … with Dawdler winning the race, Sloth coming 2nd and Plodder 3rd. Poor old Superstar will finish 4th at best!

Many punters will burn their fingers and scratch their heads. But in reality if you’d been able to analsye the horses’ abilities correctly that’s exactly where you’d expect them all to finish.

So “messages” have to be taken in context. Every horse’s ability has to be evaluated in the context of the race it is running in today. Sometimes a horse will be a great bet. sometimes awful. That’s why you have to adjust the stakes to suit the situation

When you have a big advantage … bet big!

Anyway that’s basically why we had a near maximum bet on Kinigi …

• he was rated 56 and my spies had spotted him working well with a horse rated in the high 70’s!
• So with a potential 20lbs in hand I made him a genuine odds on chance (ie his winning chance was above 50%). 
• … and the final key to the puzzle … the odds available were generous in the context of his winning chance  

Now this report is late (live on Wednesday night) partly because it takes me such a long time to compose not being a writer! .. and of course studying racing is my top priority. I’m considering putting up the Profit Statement on the Website on Monday mornings without a discussion and then adding the discussion later in the week if I have I have time. I’d appreciate your feedback as to which part is the most valuable to you?

And now a very brief chat about the weeks racing. The great thing about a good winning week is it doesn’t need much explanation. If the horse wins we’re all happy! Enough said. I did discuss one bet in detail our 40 pointer on Monday only because I thought it illustrated a point you might find useful when you’re evaluating any other information you may acquire on your racing travels!

Monday

Fabulous start. A near maximum bet winner and two others at decent odds. 3 Great winners on the day at 7/1, 100/30 and 9/4. A day to savor.

Tuesday

One bet, one 5/1 winner! It doesn’t get much better than that!

Wednesday

Tricky day. Two 2nds a 3rd and a 4th made it tough though Laurel Creek was an easy 7/2 winner for us and was also heavily gambled. A slight setback day but we were still £13,750 up at the end of it so little damage done.

Thursday

A quiet day. hot Diamond was 2nd after a big gamble and then a small each way bet at 10/1 didn’t make the frame.

Friday:

Another big priced horses day! laudatory was a decent 12 Points ew winner at 11/2, Boldenka won at 5/2 and Zaffie Parkinson an each way bet at 9/1 went very close finishing 2nd. A good day and profits now £19,070 on the week. I was hoping we’d hit the £20,000 barrier but with only Saturday (the toughest day’s racing) to look forward to it was no foregone conclusion.

Saturday

he hardest day’s racing of the week because so many owners want to win on a day they can go to the races with friends. They’re all trying!

We did very well with 7 bets of which 5 won or were placed pushing the profits over £20,000 for the week!

Sunday

– A stunning 7/1 winner,. Won in a canter and was very impressive indeed. Unusually for one of our horses we took under the odds! The bet was a decent 8 Points ew at 13/2 and he actually won at 7/1! Great day though. No complaints!

Summary

A stunning week with a profit of £27,380 to £100 per point stakes. Just imagine if you could bet like that for a year … you’d make well over a million!! Lovely thought eh?

Profits have finally crept through the £200,000 barrier to £202,314.50. That’s terrific work for 24 weeks betting! It’s been a marvelous 1st 6 months for the Service and as much as I’d love to keep winning at this rate I d think it’s been especially good. My target for the year was to win an extra £10,000 for you at £10 per point ie £100,000 at my usual £100 per point stakes. We’ve surpassed that 400% and hopefully we’ll continue to add to it. I doubt the next 6 months will be quite so spectacular but you never know! That’s the beauty of racing!

All the best

Bob Rothman

PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website is now KINIGI