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Welcome!

Here you  and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names.

After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on.

This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy.

Passwords will be sent by text each week

Regards

Bob

Week 22 Loss £12,860 Detailed Horse Racing Results 

Week 22 Loss of £12,860 but Profit on Month £27,387.50

Let’s start with the positive elements of week 22 because there’s no doubt it was a tough week. The National Hunt bets were superb! We bet in 5 races and had 3 winners, and one 5/1 each way bet 2nd. That’s an 80% strike rate for returns and a 60% strike rate for winners.

First Point, Riverside Theatre and Shoreacres all won and Storm of Applause was an each way bet at 5/1 which came 2nd so a breakeven bet.

As we’re just at the beginning of the New National Hunt Season it does wonders for your confidence about our bets over the sticks.

Sadly the Flat bets were stinkers. The top and the bottom of it is the Flat horses have now gone over the top and are unreliable betting mediums. We will be playing on the All Weather as horses are trained for a winter campaign on it. But the Turf Flat horses will be very much on the back burner from now.

We’ve had worse and come through laughing!

Ok week 22 was a bad week no question. But let’s put it into context.  We lost £12,860 or 129 points. In fact that’s not our worse week. It may surprise you to recall we had one even worse earlier in the season! Week 12 was a horrible 183 point loss which looked pretty bad at the time. We dropped from a running total profit of £90,019.50 down to a profit of £71,644.50. And it felt worse because it’s the only time we’ve had two losing weeks in a row. It followed a small loss of 13 points the previous week.

That week I lost several good clients who thought the winning run had come to an end and we’d never enjoy the Golden Days again. How wrong they were! I was sad to see them go because I knew they’d be missing out, but could understand their grief at that time. It’s never any fun losing.

But like all situations in life there are interesting lessons. And as Professionals it’s important we learn from each experience so we get better and stronger. Just as atheletes, footballs, rugby players train each day to get better … we need to train and hone our mental skills at betting. Because that’s really what we’re working with … a mental muscle.

If I may I’d like to share the story of one client who was tempted to give in when we had those previous two losing weeks and who has since become a good friend. Allow me to call him Chris.  After week 12 Chris rang me to say

“Sorry Bob, I’m leaving. No hard feelings, I’m still over 4 figures up (£1,000 up) but I think I’ll try some other tipsters who seem to be doing better this week”

(well they could hardly do worse could they!)

I thanked him for his time with us and explained we were sad to see him go … then the next day he had a change of heart and decided to stick the rest of the month out with us … (and without scoring points and not mentioning any names because I thinks that would be unprofessional his other tipsters performed poorly and he dropped them one by one! it seemed they just had a lucky good week when we had a bad one)

I was delighted Chris stayed with the Service because within 3 weeks profits had DOUBLED from £71,644.50 to an incredible £144,487.00! In this game you never know when you’re going to hit a Golden Spell. It couldn’t have come at a better time!

… and he didn’t have to wait for 3 weeks to have his faith rewarded! The very next week we won £16,107.50 and had recovered 87% of the loss! Then we had a storming week in Week 24, had our best week ever and won a staggering £45,580!! Cumulative winnings shot up to £132,332.00 and we had a massive celebration! Many clients enjoyed their best winning day every when we scorched the bookies with a 19/1 winning double and two great winners at 3/1 and 4/1! The following week added another £12,155.00 and profits were doubled!

Chris rang me last week …

It was good to hear from Chris last week and he warmed my heart with a really encouraging message.

“Bob I just want you to know I have every faith in you and I’m sticking with you. I’m still 5 FIGURES UP (my capitals i.e. over £10,000) and waiting for the next bet. I realise now these things ebb and flow but you keep piling the profits up so I’m with you all the way”

Chris’s call cheered me up no end because it made me realise that my most experienced clients probably felt the same way and knew this was just a minor storm to be ridden out on our journey.

Because I’ll be honest with you on Saturday after some of those results I felt awful. For a second I thought about throwing in the towel. It was a really crap day! I don’t mind losing but I don’t enjoy it. But when I think about you losing it really upsets me. You see I know that if I have a bad day … or week … or month … that sooner or later I’ll start backing winners again.

The challenge with any investing or gambling is you do have bad spells as well as good. Sometimes you just have rotten luck, or your horses run awful for no apparent reason. But I’ve had 20 years of ups and downs and I know the ups eventually outweigh the downs. Of course nothings certain in racing but I have good reason to expect I’ll bounce back just because I always have.

But you don’t know that yet. We launched this Service on June 5th so we’ve only had 5 months of track record. True our 5 months is more like 2 years of many services because of our high volume of bets.  But 2 years isn’t 20 years and so it’s hard to have faith and it’s easy to get disheartened.

Betting is an Negative Sum (Emotional) Game

Now what do I mean by that? Allow me to illustrate with an example because this also explains why so many people give up on a winning formula.

If you had a good job that paid say £52,000 a year you’d happily collect your pay cheque each month. You might not like your boss, or your work but you’d never have to worry about cash.

Now suppose you decide to become a Professional Punter or Stock Market Trader and your target is to make £52,000 a year or £1,000 a week. That’s the same as the good job … but if you were employing someone like me to do all your research and analysis you might only have to “work” for 20 minutes a day!

Week 1 you make your target £1,000 and celebrate because you only worked 20 minutes a day and had lots of free time to enjoy it!

Week 2 you have a fabulous week and win £4,500! You start wondering about all the things you might buy with your new wealth and start thinking maybe your target should be £150,000 a year! You are flying and feel on top of the world!

Week 3 you lose £500 … mmm a bit subdued but hey you’re still £5,000 up and well ahead.

Week 4 you lose £1,000.  You feel awful. You begin to wonder if you’re cut out for this. You doubt yourself. You think about things you could have bought and didn’t, and now can’t.  You are in pain emotionally and it’s not funny.

STOP …

Look at what’s really happened. Over 4 weeks you’ve made an average profit of £4,000 or £1,000 a week. It took you about 20 minutes a day. You’re bang on target  … yet you’re about to call it a day! Why? It’s madness?

The reason is we get MORE pain from losing £1,000 than we get pleasure from winning £1,000.

Think about it. Suppose I told you tomorrow you could make your way to your local Town Hall sign your name on a form and collect a free gift of £100 for doing so.  How keen would you be to make the journey?

What if you would be FINED £100 if you didn’t go? And if you didn’t the bailiffs would be round that afternoon to collect it and physically take it out of your wallet or bank account? Now would you go?

Most people will do more to protect themselves from loss that they will to gain an equal amount. It’s normal and quite sane. The challenge is that when you bet or trade for a living… even though you may make good money … every time you lose you suffer more than you enjoy the equivalent win.

Winning £500 give say 10 units of pleasure. But losing £500 .. oh oh, that’s 20 units of pain!

What this means is if you bet or trade for a living you will gradually lose “deposits” from your “Emotional Bank Balance”

Professionals find ways to make “happiness” deposits

One reason Professionals last in the game is they find a way to keep their spirits up. You rarely see a depressive person betting. They don’t last long if they do. Most people who gamble or trade are on average happier, more positive than the rest. I bet you are too? Think about it? Aren’t you more positive on average than most of the people you know?

It’s no coincidence. Anyone who has the ability to sustain an interest in stock market investing, business entrepreneurship or gambling has found a way to get more pleasure out of everyday things  … someone like this is constantly making deposits in their Emotional Bank Account. So just like a real bank account when you need an emergency withdrawal (like when you’ve just had a bad week say!) you have something to draw on.

The secret of feeling good and having enough emotional strength to carry on is to do stuff that makes you feel good. Now

some people make themselves feel better is by chemicals. Alcohol, drugs. Alcohol works true. But better in moderation. Drink too much and you start feeling worse than you did before! The trouble is it doesn’t work long term because you just wear yourself out. The best way is to do things on a regular basis that make you feel good and are good for you.

Going to the gym, working out, seeing a film, taking a loved one out for a meal, going on holiday, learning something new, playing a sport, developing a skill. Things like this take your mind off your worries and free you to get back in the game, make good decisions and win again.

Lets be frank. Making money by betting or trading is easy when you’re winning. But because of the losses in between the wins it’s one of the hardest things to do emotionally for long periods of time.

5 Winning Months

I still feel bad about last week. It still hurts and I’ve been betting for 20 years. So don’t ever think you will be immune to those types of feelings because it’s very natural.

But it helps to find a better way of looking at things. to Re-frame into the positive. Here’s a different way of looking at it that may help.

And I have a n apology to make. Because I send you a WEEKLY report I’ve been guilty of encouraging you to look at racing over too short a time frame.

Imagine you made a decision to whether to continue betting or not after every race.

You could never last long in racing with those rules. No matter how good you are. No matter what information you have. No one, but no-one bets 100% winners. So if you based your decision on whether to continue based on the result of each race you’d stop after your first loser. Your racing career would be no more than 1 or 2 races.

What about basing your decision on whether your winning or losing at the end of the day? I reckon you’d last about 5 days at most. You usually have at least one losing day a week.

We’ve been betting on this new Service for 22 weeks and now we’ve had 4 losing weeks. That’s 6x as many winning weeks as losing but I can tell you I have lost clients whenever I’ve had a losing week. A week is too short to really judge how good this service really is.

If you look at it monthly you get a different picture. Here’s the results split down by month since the launch of the service on June 5th

•          June                Profit    £45,892.50
•          July                 Profit    £11,367.00
•          August            Profit    £29,267.50
•          September      Profit    £71,805.00
•          October          Profit    £27,387.50

Where are the losing weeks now? Every month is a winner! They’ve been smoothed out in the larger picture. You see the longer view you take the more accurate you get in many ways. One day or week can be up or down and doesn’t really show you the big picture.

But 5 months winning! Month after month! That’s impressive and clearly shows something interesting is going on. Clearly the bets behind those figures must be quite special. No matter how any one day or week has been. The overall picture is one of healthy profit don’t you agree?

And actually I think a month is a bit short. Most Professionals I know base their performance on a YEAR’S results. Are they up or down on the year? Not the week, not the month, though both are of interest. You can have a bad week or month. But if you’re well up on the year does it really matter? Stopping when you’re ahead just because you have a little losing spell is like killing the goose that laid the Golden Egg!

Monday:

Good start to the week 2 winners out of 3 bets. Master Rooney was a horse that the Brian Smart stable had always thought a lot of as at home he was one of their bets 2 YO. They realised he needed dropping back in trip and the 7 f had been his undoing last time. He won well beating the strongly fancied favourite and both finished clear. A horse to watch out for next year.

Tuesday:

I sent you a text about Lumnious Gold as my contacts were so upset he’d been allowed to run. Forced to more like it! He took ages to get in the stalls and clearly did not want to race, something had upset him. They tried  half a dozen times for what seemed like 10 minutes although normal procedure is to give up after 3 attempts and the horse has to be withdrawn. Quite why they persevered so desperately I don’t know but his chance was ruined and not surprisingly he faded tamely after wasting so much energy fighting the handlers and getting worked up.

Wednesday:

Silent Wonder ran well enough but the unraced Charlton horse  Affluent was too classy. I knew the Charlton horse was very nice and working well but they expected him to run green. Their 2Yo haven’t been winning first time out this year so it was a pleasant surprise to them he enjoyed racing so much. Sadly not for us!  Affluent wants putting in your notebook because to run so well when the stables a bit in and out means he really has an engine! Watch out for next year.

Thursday:

A lousy day and all ran awful. Too bad to be true!

Friday:

Blimey! This day could have turned our week around.

3 each way bets at decent odds 4/1, 5/1 and 13/2 were placed but didn’t win. First Point landed another nice gamble for us and the profits from the new Jump Season are really started to rack up now.

Saturday

Only one bit of good news on the day when our sole Jump bet won. This seasons jump bets are really hitting the target which bodes well for a good season. Roll on Cheltenham in March!

Sunday

Another jump bet wins! Shoreacres was another fine winner. you may have wondered why I didn’t put up the hot favourite trained by Nicky Henderson when we’ve done so well with his horses and enjoyed such a good season. Well my spies had seen it schooling last week and they reported back it hadn’t jumped well hitting hurdles! As you know jump racing is all about jumping (you can gain 2/3 lengths at each hurdle)  If you don’t jump it’s hard to win. The reverse was true of our bet who had schooled well so it was a no brainer! We had a tiny each way saver on Uffa Fox because I knew he’d be gambled and they were fancying him. But I was worried about the ground and it proved to be his undoing even though they bet him down to 6/1! That’s why we only had the minimum 1 point bet.

All the best

Bob Rothman

PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website is now JUMPS