The results for last month are in and considering the awful weather we’ve had it’s not been a bad month! £15,520.00 profit
Click below for a full list of February’s results…
The discussion of the report will be up in the next few days.. Check back to see how the month has gone.
Note
The results file is in PDF format. Should you not be able to open this document, you may download the free Acrobat Reader software from
Not one of our finest months although a small profit of £8131.00 was made. I say “small” only because we’ve got used to much more and yet £8,131.00 in a month is almost £100,000 a year!!
It’s amazing how you can get used to winning such obscene amounts of money compared to what we earn at work that we becme complacent!
Ok so let me rephrase that! A good month with an £8000 profit!
This is a Private Area of the Website and a password is required to access[/vc_column_text]
Welcome!
Here you and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names.
After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on.
This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy.
Passwords will be sent by text each week
Regards
Bob
December 2008 Profit to date £19,275.00 Detailed Horse Racing Results
Cobham Friday 26th Dec 11.04pm
I hope you’ll excuse me being so late with the report this week. Racing round this time of year is patchy and so I used the time to catch up with some contacts who’ll be putting some great business our way next Flat Season.
And as we’ve said before winning weeks don’t need much talking about. Collecting the cash and spending it seems to take up much of the focus!
And we are in the Festive Season … so while we’re celebrating the tremendous fortune we’ve enjoyed this last 6 months spare a thought for a couple of clients who joined about 8 weeks ago when we had those two losing weeks back to back. You can guess what they’re doing now? Yep, they packed in pretty quick! And as a result missed out on the following 800 point profit surge! I do understand because if you start with a Betting Service and you don’t win almost straight away very few people have the stomach to continue. I don’t blame them really, there’s plenty of undesirable tipping services out there (as well as some excellent ones too!) and so to “cut your losses” quickly probably protects against getting ripped off. But by the same token you’re never going to find a good service unless you happened to join them on a winning week or month unless you invest some time.
last week started with a bang again. A terrific 20 Point bet on a nice 3/1 winner. Many of you spotted the same connection as ***** and consequently perhaps bet a bit more than usual? Great when it works but painful if it doesn’t. The points are there for your guidance and of course you don’t have to copy them exactly. I think you’ll win more if you do but that is only opinion.
Then a nothing bet 2 pts on ********** at 28/1. Obviously 2 point bets rarely come up and might only win 1 in 10 or 20 bets. If you’re getting 20/1 you still make a good profit but on this type of bet there are looooong losing runs. Hence it was such a tiny bet. Sadly it wasn’t the 1 time in 20 that we collected but also no damage done.
****** was at the other end of the scale! A rare 30 point bet and when you consider we’re having 15X the stake on this horse compared to ******** it’s obvious I expect these horses to win a lot more frequently. ********** thinks the world of this horse being one of his best 3 Year old hurdlers. We not only enjoyed a fabulous win but we also had a great antepost bet for Cheltenham at 16/1! He’s a low as 4/1 favourite with some firms now!
We were already having a fantastic week and it didn’t stop there. Another 3 winners and an each way placed out of the next 5 bets. Your bookie must have wanted to close up shop every time you walked through the door! ******* at 2/1, ***** at 11/4 and *********** at 6/4 added another 50 points to the kitty.
By now the racing was getting pretty awful in the traditional Xmas lull and not only were bets few and far between they weren’t running well either. No bets on Friday and then 2 loser on Saturday took a tiny bit of gloss off the week. But a 200 point week is great in any currency and you can’t expect every day to be a winner. But with 5 Good winners out of 10 bets it was a great week and a terrific one to have the week before Xmas. Several clients aid it made their Xmas shopping a heck of a lot easier!
As I write this almost a week late it’s fair to say the next week has been pretty drab and the racing has been dire. We’re down, (but only 61 points by Friday) and so the net profit over the two week period is still 140 points or about 70 points a week. That’s £7,000 at £100 per point stake and puts it into perspective don’t you agree? There’s not many jobs that pay £7,000 a week (£350,000 a year!) for about 20 minutes “work” a day!
In case I’m late with next week’s report I wish you a very Happy New Year and a Prosperous and healthy 2009!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website horseracingpro.brookscustomers.com is now ******
Cobham Boxing Day 10.08pm
The weekly discussion hasn;t been compltede yet due to the Festive interruptions. However it was another fantastic week’s profits and you can check the detailed bets here
Cobham, 1147 pm Monday 15th Dec
As we had so few bets this week due to the appalling weather I’m adopting a slightly different format and discussing the weeks business in one long essay. With a sting in the tale! I hope you enjoy it!
Well it was bound to happen. We’d enjoyed stunning week after stunning week so we were due a bad one. But as losing weeks go this wasn’t too bad. It always helps when the last bet of the day or the last bet of the week is a good winner doesn’t it? You feel like you’re making progress back.
And it was a heck of a cruel week. The weather was lousy and severely limited betting opportunities. Several meetings were abandoned and we missed some great potential winners especially when Cheltenham was abandoned on Saturday. I had two beauties lined up!
********** was our most costly and definitely the cruelest loser. We were mugged on Wednesday when he was absolutely cruising, but locked away on the rail and boxed in on all sides with nowhere to go. His jockey was virtually standing up in the stirrups looking around for the tiniest gap but he was in prison and there was no escape. He’d barely had a race and looked like he’d had won by a distance had he got out!
Connections were so upset they decided to stay over and take him to Great Leighs for another crack. They figured he’d hardly had a race so he wouldn’t be too tired. And as he seemed a class above his opposition even below par he’d win. So the recovery mission plan was hatched and we backed him again. Once again he was a monster gamble from 100/30 down to 6/4 favourite! That takes some money to move a horse’s odds like that. I think everyone in the country had seen how unlucky he was the night before and latched on to our gamble.
He broke poorly but rapidly made up the lost ground and turning for home was in a good position travelling strongly. I thought the gamble was landed. Suddenly he was treading water and lumbering around, he’d gone from racehorse to packhorse in a stride.
To be honest my immediate reaction was the previous race had taken more out of him that they’d thought. Add to that the long journey travelling over from Ireland on the ferry and the long drive down from Wales and you could see why he could easily be feeling knackered. I understood but felt a bit upset that connections hadn’t spotted the sparkle may have gone out of his eye.
It was unjustified on my part because he came back sore and it turned out he’d pulled a muscle probably due to making up that lost ground too quickly. And maybe at the back of my mind a little voice says perhaps 2 races in 2 days made him more prone to injury. It was annoying because he would have won the first night when we had 7/1 about him. And the second night he would easily have been at least placed (he still finished 4th, just out of the frame). But both night he finished out of the frame. Two big 15 point each way bets down the drain and a massive 60 points in the hole. No chance this week being a winner now I thought.
If that wasn’t bad enough we had a rare odds on bet which ran a shocker. *********** repeatedly jumped badly and in a jump race that ruins your chance. A good hurdler can take 2 lengths out of his field at each hurdle and over 2 miles you have 8 hurdles, that’s 16 lengths! Not only did he give away ground at each hurdle but hitting them wastes valuable energy too.
On the bright side one client rang to say he doesn’t bet odds on so he skipped that bet pretending he was the bookmaker! So he gained 30 points on the profit share system. Good luck to him I say (though I think it’s a dangerous game!)
To be fair there’s no rule that says you have to bet all my selections. I know many of my clients are extremely well informed themselves and have good contacts. So obviously if you have good information in a race that I may not be aware of you must make your own decision. Sometimes that might mean betting your own horse and not mine. Sometimes it might mean betting both. Sometimes you might strike lucky and land the forecast! This is a game of opinion and often mine may be no better than the next man. I like to think it’s good enough to show me a profit over the year but I’m never too proud to listen to what someone else may know about another horse in the race. In this business it pays to be open minded.
And now I’d like to discuss our biggest loser and biggest winner in one breath. 40 Points win on ********* at 7/4 (punted down to an amazing 4/6!) and our final and only bet on Saturday 10 points each way on ********** at 13/2 (also a big gamble, punted down to 4/1)
By the way ********** should have won. But he didn’t. He was the best horse in the race yet didn’t get the prize he (and we) deserved. His jockey rode very confidently (too confidently for my liking). Sometimes I think that when connections tell a jockey “Lad, you’re on a cert! He’ll win” … the jockey gets too confident and thinks he can win from any position and can end up playing too cool to be true, coming from the back of the field with a flying run and just being denied. It looks fantastic when you pull it off. But when my horse is fancied I like to see him in a good position RIGHT FROM THE START! As one of my handicappers always says to me
“Bob, you can give weight away,
… but you can’t give a start”
Breaking slowly he was last and then held up. Half a mile from home he powerfully overtook his field all the way round the outside on a bend ( you and I both know that’s the longest way to travel and means you have to race a good few lengths further) He struck the front a furlong from home and was then worried out of it by a jockey giving his horse a hard ride. Bah!
It was a huge swing because 40 points at 7/4 returns 110 points, yet we lost 40. A 150 point swing for the sake of a stronger ride! How the hell do we make a profit I sometimes wonder. It’s like paying tax at 450% let alone 45%!
Now I know you liked **********! For two reasons. She was a BIG price and she always looked like winning! Her and the 2nd horse finished miles clear of the rest so you knew the win or 2nd was in the bag. It’s great watching those sort of races isn’t it?
Now I have a question for you and I bet I know the answer you’re going to give. The question is which bet was the better one? ********** or **********?
Bob are you crazy? I hear you say! One horse won, one lost, obviously the winner is the better bet!
Hey, not so fast … it’s not that simple.
I see my job as twofold. As a kind of coach (if you will let me be so bold) … to put before you bets which I think represent value and look to be long term profitable. So that you may choose to participate if it suits you and hopefully make yourself some decent money along the way.
But also as a friend. To tell you the truth as I see it. No matter whether you will like it or not. Because friends can tell you the truth. If someone had BO for example you’d like to think one of their friends would tell them! So I’m sharing this even though I don’t expect you’ll like the conclusion!
To make it easier to compare the bets may we “pretend” that ********** won? The question is the same. Is your answer? I suspect you still prefer the ********** bet. I’ll be honest, I enjoy bets like ********** more. Because like you I prefer to risk a little to win a lot. But I know that ********** is the better bet. By that I mean the most profitable.
You may be curious as to why I’m even asking this when the “winning” ********** bet wins just 70 points for a risk of 40 and ********** wins 81.25 for half the risk!
The reason is we must look not at the profit. But the profitability. Ie the long term profit one bet will earn compared to the other.
You may already be aware that the SP (Starting Price) is a very good predictor of a horse’s winning chance. It’s what stock market investors call “efficient” So an even money chance wins close to 50% of the time. A 4/6 chance wins almost 60% of the time and a 6/4 chance just under 40%. 4/1 chances win just under 20% and so on.
Bookmakers have a percentage equivalent for every price. guess what it is for evens? 50% and …
4/6 is 60%
6/4 is 40%
4/1 is 20%
If you’d like the formula to calculate the percentage equivalent for any price drop me an email. I’ll send you a table with them all pre-calculated too.
Ok so using the SP as a guide we can estimate how many times we are “entitled” to win the race. Because if you could run the same race over and over again you’d find that horses like ********** would win around 60% of the time. And 4/1 horses like ********** will win around 20%
So let’s pretend we run each race 10 times. And our selection wins the number of races indicated by his/her SP.
We’ll bet £100 a time to make the maths easy. And for this example we bet WIN only
********** Horse A
Final SP = 4/1, therefore likely to win 20% of the time ie 2 races out of 10. We took odds of 13/2
So out of 10 bets
Now we bet ten times, £100 a time so our total investment is 10 x £100 or £1,000. We made £500 profit on this £1,000 so we made 50%
Therefore the expected return from ********** is 50%
Incidentally that’s a fabulous return especially when it only takes 6 minutes!
********** Horse B
Final SP = 4/6, therefore likely to win 60% of the time ie 6 races out of 10. We took odds of 7/4
So out of 10 bets
Now we bet ten times, £100 a time so our total investment is 10 x £100 or £1,000. We made £650 profit on this £1,000 so we made 65%
Therefore the expected return from ********** is 65%!
That’s an amazing return!
Based on the above assumptions the long term profit from bets like **********s is 65% whereas bets like ********** would return 50%. That makes ********** a 30% better bet!
I knew you wouldn’t like the answer! Everyone loves betting big priced horses! But there can be gold on those short ones too!
Caveat
It’s only fair to say that we did disregard the fact that ********** was an each way bet. And as you know I believe betting each way adds something to the value of your bet. But there’s no denying that on the above figures and betting win only, you’d win more betting **********s then you would betting *************s!
There’s two important lessons in that bit of fun.
As I finish this late on Monday night we’d had another fabulous turnaround and we’ve already won back all last week’s losses with a nice bit on top! ************ pulled us a massive 72 points profit and got the week off to a scorching start. Don’t you just love the highs and lows of this game! It really does keep you alive eh?
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website horseracingpro.brookscustomers.com is now *******
Cobham, 0.24 am Monday 8th Dec
We’ve had another stunning week and yet I’m going to be a bit of a party pooper here. For a very good reason. Your protection.
Ok we’ve had a great week let’s not deny it. In fact the last four weeks have been stunning. Now as you know I do expect to win over a year that’s true (although this is gambling so nothing’s certain!) But it’s not realistic to expect to win every week. Certainly not on this level. I don’t want you thinking this is the norm and then start betting too big so that a few losers knock you out. As sure as night follows day there will be some losing spells too. Our long term success in this business depends as much on our ability to stay the course … to complete the marathon so as to speak. It isn’t a 100 yard sprint. It’s a 200 mile slog!
Ok that’s the boring bit out of the way but if I may I’d like to just put our performance into context. Today base rate is 2%. And apart from short term “suck-you-in” short-term offers from banks and building societies the long term return on savings can be as low as 1%!
1% on your money in a bank for a year is peanuts. But the beauty of any form of trading (and I regard betting on horses as trading just the same as betting on shares or currencies) is that you can take a small edge and because you trade over and over again that small edge gets multiplied. What do I mean?
Well imagine you have a you place £20,000 worth of bets in a week and you make a 1% profit. That’s £200. Not a lot. But you might never have bet more than £1,000 and do that 50 times a year and you make 50 x 1% or 50% or £10,000! Now that’s a serious return.
Now if you placed an ad in the paper offering an investment with a 50% return you’d have an army of people wanting to bite your hand off. I don’t know any bank that offers that sort of return. I’m not even sure if Warren Buffet does? and to be fair the larger the sums of money you’re investing the harder it is to achieve a good return. the weight of your money starts acting against you. Warren Buffet invests millions if not billions. So a 10% return in a year would be very good for him.
Where am I leading in all this?
To be a Professional Punter you do have to start thinking in terms of percentages. We tend to avoid races where the bookmakers profit is high … a big percentage. For example in a 20 runner handicap they may bet to 20% profit whereas in a 8 runner maiden it could be 10%. It’s easier to win when you cherry pick better races to bet in from a punter’s point of view.
But I have a question for you. What percentage profit do you think we made last week?
To save you the math’s I’ve done it for you so let’s run through it quickly. We invested 208 points and the return was 411.6. That’s a 203.6 point profit which is … wait for it … a staggering
This is a staggering figure and it was a wonderful week. But as your friend I have to advise you it is unsustainable. We will NOT average 98% over a year. No way in Hell!
In my second year’s punting I had a golden spell and won £440,000 on a turnover of around £2m. I remember some of the comments in newspapers where the journalists were positively skeptical … they’d say begrudgingly say something like … if Mr Rothman can make 25% on turnover he must be one of the most successful punters of all time. And they’d make a big stress on the if!
Well between you and me it was true. 25% is enormous and so big that a lot of people don’t believe it’s possible. (maybe they don’t work hard enough studying eh?!)And that was when it was worth an awful lot of money. Back in 1986! Sadly I have not been able to sustain that level of winnings because it becomes impossible to get on in any size! Many clients are reporting back that they too are getting restricted by the bookies. In one case a gentleman wrote to say the bookies had happily taken his money for years when he lost but now he was winning they were running scared and limiting his bets to schoolboy size!
So let’s enjoy these golden weeks and hope we get plenty more of them but please do not base your future betting strategy or size of bet on these great weeks. Because if you do you will bet too big and if you bet too big you’ll go skint!
If we only average 1% a week we’ll do very nicely thank you. So if we have a week with a small profit … and that profit is more than 1% … I’d like you to still think “Yippee!” Because it’s a heck of a lot better than most people are doing in property or business at the moment that’s for sure!
I was very lucky when I started betting in that I made the acquaintance of another Professional Punter with some 20/30 years experience and he guided me well. I always remember one phrase that Angus said to me.
“Bob, the winning days take care of themselves. It’s the losing days you have to protect yourself from”
He had another phrase which I’ll never forget and (sadly) has been burned deep into my heart on many occasions. it’s a painful experience I hope you’ll avoid. If you do it’ll be a miracle because most Professionals will experience this at least once if not many, many times before it finally sinks in.
“Be very careful after your biggest winning day. So often the biggest losing day follows!”
Now why the heck is that? How dare the betting gods make such a stupid rule up? Surely when you win big you bet bigger and win even more? Ohhhhhhhhhhhh no.
What tends to happen after big wins is we get cocky. We think we know it all and that we walk on water. So we start lumping on Big time. The trouble is that you and I both know that we only win maybe 30% of the time. That leaves 70% for losing bets! You can easily go a week, or two or more without backing a winner. And if you’ve lumped on say 20% of your bank … you can only go 5 losing bets before you’re wiped out. That’s why I recommend a bank of at least 1,000 points, It won’t protect you from a really bad losing run. But it’ll sure help get through most of them!
Suppose you unearthed a marvelous system that won 90% of the time. 9 winners out of 10! (You really would be walking on water!) You’d bet winner after winner after winner! But … if you got cocky and decided the system was so great that you bet everything … sure as eggs are eggs, sooner or later, that 1 loser in 10 will come along and wipe you out!
Ok that’s enough about being sensible. I’m only hammering the point home because I want you to be able to bet winners for a very long time and so I’m imploring you to be sensible and cautious when I know it probably goes against part of your nature. It’s pretty obvious you must have an element of risk taking in your personality otherwise you wouldn’t have the guts to even place a bet! Not just because it’s great if you can make money from something as crazy as betting horses! But also because it’s FUN winning too! I don’t know about you but when I’ve had a good week I walk a bit taller … with a spring in my step and an even bigger smile on my face! I become a nicer person to know!
And it doesn’t matter if you win £100 or £1,000. If you win you feel good. so let’s focus on staying in the game so we have a chance to keep winning for a long time. The last time we had two bad weeks I lost 2 clients who’d been with me since the beginning. They should have had enough in reserve to see them through. Sadly they didn’t and they had to leave the club though I hope they may rejoin later. But what’s even sadder is that since those two bad weeks ( 5 and 6 weeks ago) when we lost 200 points ( £20,000 at £100 per point) … we’ve won 771 points!! (£77,122,50 at £100 per point stakes)
That’s more than THREE times the losses. They would have got it all back and be sitting pretty with even more profit in the bank. Yet those two guys have missed out just because they bet too big during the bad weeks. Please, please bet carefully!
A quick chat about the week now, though it was so good we hardly need to say anything! The good days look after themselves!
******** A 2 mile race with our horse looking like he was going to win or be second for sure, only for it end in a bunch finish with 4 horses separated by less than a length … and we finished 4th. It was an unbelievable 24 point kick in the goolies! To be frank if you have a result like that at any time in a week you’d have to expect to end up losing that week. 24 points is an awful lot to make up.
An awful days racing. Poor quality animals who are not a good betting medium. ********* missed the break and never faced the kickback which about summed it up for the day.
I was beginning to wish I’d taken the week off and gone abroad! Maybe I was getting stale and missing something? I usually work 5 weeks and then take a few days break because I find I win more doing that. 5 weeks is a long time to keep up the intense focus needed for racing and if you’re a bit stale you seem to miss the “golden” calls. A lot of research on peak performance shows it drops off after a few weeks (which is maybe why some horses only replicate peak form if they race around 14 days later)
******* was a another horse certain to win or be second (he and the winner were 20 lengths clear coming to the second last) so I was feeling quite comfortable with our each way bet knowing we couldn’t lose … when he tipped up and fell!! Ouch. That’s twice in 3 days and even though it was only a 5 point each way bet it was another 10 points down the can and an almost impossible position to recover from. When you’re losing it would be a heck of a lot cheaper to go away and not bet! 34 points on two unlucky each way losers was going to make this a bad week I was sure.
More rubbish racing and I could only find two bets from all the runners. Most of these horses you and I could run faster than!
********* was a welcome winner and confirmed the gallop lines with ***** who we’ve enjoyed two good wins on and who now races off 65.My spies had spotted ************ galloping well with horses of his caliber and as she was only rated 58 we knew she had a great chance. Heavily gambled she travelled like a dream just behind the leaders and powered clear for an easy win. About time!
What a great day! ********* stormed home in the first. And then ********** landed an enormous gamble very easily indeed. 9/2 winners with a good size stake soon repair the bank and we stormed up to an amazing 31 point profit by the end of the day. What a comeback!
A magnificent day and several clients enjoyed even bigger wins than advised by using their initiative.
Our first bet *********** didn’t run till late in the evening but was a facile winner and another huge gamble. He’d been working brilliantly.
Then we had one of my favourite bets of all time the infamous each way double. The power of this bet is that if the horse both place you still make a small profit. But when they both win as they did on Saturday the return is simply mouthwatering!
I gave out the bet as a 5 point each way double on ******* at 9/2 and ********* at 2/1 and intended giving you a 8-10 point each way bet on ******* as well. I was watching the markets and it looked like he’d drift out to 5/1 so I was holding back to get you the best odds on the single. I wanted to give you the double earlier as they take a bit longer to get on. Then one of my men as Sandown rang on the other line and started running through the rest of the ******* runners plus what he’d heard about other horses at the track.
I must be getting stale because frankly I got sidetracked and suddenly the race was almost off. ******* had drifted out to almost 11/2 on the exchanges so I was surprised he hadn’t shown 5/1 yet. And then they were called into line and I realised it was too late to give you the second bet.
You know the result, ***** won and you should have been enjoying a big win already. I was now praying ********* would do the decent thing for you and win so you’d have a good return as it’s really annoying if you have a double and one wins and the other doesn’t. Luckily perhaps because I had missed the time off for the *********** race several clients called to say they’d “guessed” I might have missed something else off too and backed Fabula on its own as well as in the double!! A double payday! Obviously I didn’t text out the single bet on ********* so I cannot put it on the report but well done to you if you backed him singly as well. It was still a great win!
*********** absolutely destroyed his field ad it was almost embarrassing how easy he won. But I’m never embarrassed to collect the winnings! And then in the evening ************ was another huge gamble and looked like he was on jet fuel, an easy winner.
A marvelous day and several clients texted or emailed to say they’d had a fantastic day! Incidentally I love to hear about all your good wins so feel free to email me and let me know about them at ***********************
I won’t always be able to reply promptly so if you need a quick reply it’s best to write to the girls at ***************** as I only log in every day or so and it depends if I’ve finished my studying as racing always has to come first as you’ll understand.
A great week! Hope you celebrated, bought something for yourself or a friend or made a difference to someone’s life. I love week’s like that! Wonder why the bookies don’t??????!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website horseracingpro.brookscustomers.com is now *********
Whether it was due to the patchy racing over Xmas, the fact that so many people were down with the flu or suffering from Xmas pre and post celebrations I’m not sure. But results last week were awful, one of the worse weeks we’ve ever had. Spare a thought for a couple of chaps who joined bang at the start of that and sent me emails saying words to the effect of “how the hell do you make a living backing crap like that?” I sympathise. Their brains must have been spinning because mine was. It was a rubbish week no doubt at all.
You and I both know we have to take a long term view in racing and that every now and again you’ll have a stinker of a week when nothing goes right. We’ve had 5 of those now in the last 6 months but facts don’t lie. Despite all of those we’re MASSIVELY in profit and in a another few weeks we’ll look back at last week as just another blip on the upward surge of our profits. I wish it were a lot smoother and the horses came along in a nice sequence of winner loser winner loser. But they don’t. Sometimes it’s because a stable whose horses have been running well suddenly get a virus and you back half a dozen losers with everyone scratching their heads until they realise something really is wrong and it wasn’t just bad luck.
I’ve been promising you for a while that I’d start reporting in a more long term way because week by week is really too short to get a realistic picture and it’s too easy to lose heart after one bad week. Remember those 2 clients who cancelled 6 weeks ago after two losing weeks after losing 200 points … and then we promptly won another 600! I know over a year I’ve always made a profit and I know you do too. But to help you focus on the bigger picture I’ll start preparing the report on a monthly basis so it’s easier to compare to say a normal monthly salary.
So although we had a terrible week last week and lost 155 points we’re still well up in December and showing a profit of £19,275 to £100 pp stakes. I hate losing just as much as you … and when I have a bad week like last week it puts me in a bad mood just the same as everyone else. But there’s not many jobs that pay £19,000 a month! … and let’s face it even if you bet more normal stakes of say £10 or £20 a point that still £1,900- £3,800 tax free! A very handsome salary for 15 minutes “work” a day! So the schedule attached this week lists all December bets and I’ll do the same again for January.
And now a quick chat about some of the highlights (or low lights!) of the week. Cloudy Time traded at big odds on in running looking all over the winner before finishing 2nd. Cruel start to the week. Almost the same thing for Mylord Collonges. Both looked like winning, both went big odds on in running only to finish 2nd. Thos two races alone were a 77 point swing more than half the losses on the week. Add in The Market Man who was still going well and connections thought would have won till he made a bad mistake that knocked the stuffing out of him. A 55 point swing and 3 bets virtually change the week on their own.
Zanzibar Boy was a welcome change of fortune and despite the bad luck we were only 43 points behind. With normal service we’d have been ahead by now. The worse result on the week for me for two reasons was Dun Doire. A huge 20 point ew bet at 13/2 he was just getting into contention when he made a mistake at the 4th last and was never travelling after. We had two bets planned last week from this stable. This was the biggest but I’d also planned a 10 point each way bet on Ross Accord on Sunday which won at 11/2 (from 6/1). After Dun Doire was so disappointing to be honest I lost faith with the stable and thought maybe their horses weren’t in as good form as they thought. They told me he’d burst a blood vessel and so I should have accepted it but you know how it is … when you lose confidence you make bad calls. Somehow I got it into my head maybe he burst because he wasn’t fit enough, it was a big enou8gh doubt for me not to want to bet it and tell you about him and so passed up a great 6/1 winner for us. So sorry. When Ross Accord won I nearly threw the telly at the wall! To be fair our Irish contacts were in Cracking form to be fair and Quel Esprit stormed home to land the bumper very easily and will probably go to Cheltenham in March now.
Petite Robin was another cruel result. Stalking the leader he’d taken his measure and passed him leading going to the last only to get outsprinted to the line. The two were miles clear of the rest and everyone was of the opinion the best horse finished second. If he’d realised he’d have a battle on his hands he could have made his mover earlier but I guess the jockey expected (as everyone did) that once he passed the front runner he’d capitulate as they usually do and then all he’d have to do would be to saunter home at leisure. That was another winner that got away and another 39 point swing. To make matter worse I didn’t bet him each way as I usually do to minimise any losses because there were only two places. Harry Tricker was another big gamble but the race was run at a dawdle which was totally unsuitable for a horse that needs a stamina test! Normally you’d expect a decent pace in a big handicap but unusually no one wanted to set a good pace. A fluke result best forgotten. Much the same could be said about the whole week!
Gone Hunting was a late message from the track and won easily as well as being another huge gamble. This was a week of one step forward two back.
Sunday was a calamity. You never said was sent up to Catterick to win because he has a breathing problem and they thought he’d be able to win this without coming off the bridle and being tested. But instead of letting him bowl along at his own pace his jockey fought to restrain him mid field. As a result he wasted valuable energy and so when he finally did come to challenge he was pooped. When a horse is going to fight for his head I’m sure sometimes it’s better to let run on and establish a lead which could act as a valuable cushion rather than giving away distance as well as wasting energy fighting the horse. He fell at the last and lost his place chance though he was beat at the time.
You must have despaired if you watched Nom De Guerre’s race. We’d taken a great price around 5/1 each way and he was a huge gamble down to 2/1 favourite! Coming to the last he took it up to win the race, blundered and his rider fell off! I was beginning to wonder if the bookies had slipped a spy into our network, this was becoming unbelievable. That was a certain winner lost and another 68 point swing! Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaagh!
The day would have been comical if it wasn’t so cruel. Gizmondo got chinned on the line and Majehar finished like a train to be second just failing to land a deserved victory for us. One of our senior traders sent me a text afterward to say it had been a really unlucky day but he still agreed with all the bets. It’s because of days and weeks like that that many people get knocked out of the game. They just can’t take the pain. On the other hand we know that it’ll turn and if you bet 10 horses that come to the last in the lead 8 or 9 will win, maybe all ten. It was an unlucky week and a big loss. But in the big picture it was bearable. We were still well ahead on the month and HUGELY ahead on the year. Just one of those bad weeks you put behind you, forget and focus on future winners!
Finally Can I take this opportunity to wish you a very Happy New Year and healthy and wealthy 2009! let’s make those bookies squeal!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website horseracingpro.brookscustomers.com is now HUNTING
Welcome!
Here you and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names.
After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on.
This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy.
Passwords will be sent by text each week
Regards
Bob
Week 29 Profit £20,740.00 Detailed Horse Racing Results
Cobham Friday Dec 26th 11.02pm
I hope you’ll excuse me being so late with the report this week. Racing round this time of year is patchy and so I used the time to catch up with some contacts who’ll be putting some great business our way next Flat Season.
And as we’ve said before winning weeks don’t need much talking about. Collecting the cash and spending it seems to take up much of the focus!
And we are in the Festive Season … so while we’re celebrating the tremendous fortune we’ve enjoyed this last 6 months spare a thought for a couple of clients who joined about 8 weeks ago when we had those two losing weeks back to back. You can guess what they’re doing now? Yep, they packed in pretty quick! And as a result missed out on the following 800 point profit surge! I do understand because if you start with a Betting Service and you don’t win almost straight away very few people have the stomach to continue. I don’t blame them really, there’s plenty of undesirable tipping services out there (as well as some excellent ones too!) and so to “cut your losses” quickly probably protects against getting ripped off. But by the same token you’re never going to find a good service unless you happened to join them on a winning week or month unless you invest some time.
last week started with a bang again. A terrific 20 Point bet on a nice 3/1 winner. Many of you spotted the same connection as Issaquah and consequently perhaps bet a bit more than usual? Great when it works but painful if it doesn’t. The points are there for your guidance and of course you don’t have to copy them exactly. I think you’ll win more if you do but that is only opinion.
Then a nothing bet 2 pts on Fandango Boy at 28/1. Obviously 2 point bets rarely come up and might only win 1 in 10 or 20 bets. If you’re getting 20/1 you still make a good profit but on this type of bet there are looooong losing runs. Hence it was such a tiny bet. Sadly it wasn’t the 1 time in 20 that we collected but also no damage done.
Zaynar was at the other end of the scale! A rare 30 point bet and when you consider we’re having 15X the stake on this horse compared to Fandango Boy it’s obvious I expect these horses to win a lot more frequently. Nicky Henderson thinks the world of this horse being one of his best 3 Year old hurdlers. We not only enjoyed a fabulous win but we also had a great antepost bet for Cheltenham at 16/1! He’s a low as 4/1 favourite with some firms now!
We were already having a fantastic week and it didn’t stop there. Another 3 winners and an each way placed out of the next 5 bets. Your bookie must have wanted to close up shop every time you walked through the door! Kornati Kid at 2/1, Duff at 11/4 and Blaise Tower at 6/4 added another 50 points to the kitty.
By now the racing was getting pretty awful in the traditional Xmas lull and not only were bets few and far between they weren’t running well either. No bets on Friday and then 2 loser on Saturday took a tiny bit of gloss off the week. But a 200 point week is great in any currency and you can’t expect every day to be a winner. But with 5 Good winners out of 10 bets it was a great week and a terrific one to have the week before Xmas. Several clients aid it made their Xmas shopping a heck of a lot easier!
As I write this almost a week late it’s fair to say the next week has been pretty drab and the racing has been dire. We’re down, (but only 61 points by Friday) and so the net profit over the two week period is still 140 points or about 70 points a week. That’s £7,000 at £100 per point stake and puts it into perspective don’t you agree? There’s not many jobs that pay £7,000 a week (£350,000 a year!) for about 20 minutes “work” a day!
In case I’m late with next week’s report I wish you a very Happy New Year and a Prosperous and healthy 2009!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website horseracingpro.brookscustomers.com is now ZAYNAR
Welcome!
Here you and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names.
After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on.
This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy.
Passwords will be sent by text each week
Regards
Bob
Week 28 Loss £5,325.00 Detailed Horse Racing Results
Cobham, 11.14 pm Monday 15th Dec
As we had so few bets this week due to the appalling weather I’m adopting a slightly different format and discussing the weeks business in one long essay. With a sting in the tale! I hope you enjoy it!
Well it was bound to happen. We’d enjoyed stunning week after stunning week so we were due a bad one. But as losing weeks go this wasn’t too bad. It always helps when the last bet of the day or the last bet of the week is a good winner doesn’t it? You feel like you’re making progress back.
And it was a heck of a cruel week. The weather was lousy and severely limited betting opportunities. Several meetings were abandoned and we missed some great potential winners especially when Cheltenham was abandoned on Saturday. I had two beauties lined up!
Elkhart Lake was our most costly and definitely the cruelest loser. We were mugged on Wednesday when he was absolutely cruising, but locked away on the rail and boxed in on all sides with nowhere to go. His jockey was virtually standing up in the stirrups looking around for the tiniest gap but he was in prison and there was no escape. He’d barely had a race and looked like he’d had won by a distance had he got out!
Connections were so upset they decided to stay over and take him to Great Leighs for another crack. They figured he’d hardly had a race so he wouldn’t be too tired. And as he seemed a class above his opposition even below par he’d win. So the recovery mission plan was hatched and we backed him again. Once again he was a monster gamble from 100/30 down to 6/4 favourite! That takes some money to move a horse’s odds like that. I think everyone in the country had seen how unlucky he was the night before and latched on to our gamble.
He broke poorly but rapidly made up the lost ground and turning for home was in a good position travelling strongly. I thought the gamble was landed. Suddenly he was treading water and lumbering around, he’d gone from racehorse to packhorse in a stride.
To be honest my immediate reaction was the previous race had taken more out of him that they’d thought. Add to that the long journey travelling over from Ireland on the ferry and the long drive down from Wales and you could see why he could easily be feeling knackered. I understood but felt a bit upset that connections hadn’t spotted the sparkle may have gone out of his eye.
It was unjustified on my part because he came back sore and it turned out he’d pulled a muscle probably due to making up that lost ground too quickly. And maybe at the back of my mind a little voice says perhaps 2 races in 2 days made him more prone to injury. It was annoying because he would have won the first night when we had 7/1 about him. And the second night he would easily have been at least placed (he still finished 4th, just out of the frame). But both night he finished out of the frame. Two big 15 point each way bets down the drain and a massive 60 points in the hole. No chance this week being a winner now I thought.
If that wasn’t bad enough we had a rare odds on bet which ran a shocker. R De Sien Sivola repeatedly jumped badly and in a jump race that ruins your chance. A good hurdler can take 2 lengths out of his field at each hurdle and over 2 miles you have 8 hurdles, that’s 16 lengths! Not only did he give away ground at each hurdle but hitting them wastes valuable energy too.
On the bright side one client rang to say he doesn’t bet odds on so he skipped that bet pretending he was the bookmaker! So he gained 30 points on the profit share system. Good luck to him I say (though I think it’s a dangerous game!)
To be fair there’s no rule that says you have to bet all my selections. I know many of my clients are extremely well informed themselves and have good contacts. So obviously if you have good information in a race that I may not be aware of you must make your own decision. Sometimes that might mean betting your own horse and not mine. Sometimes it might mean betting both. Sometimes you might strike lucky and land the forecast! This is a game of opinion and often mine may be no better than the next man. I like to think it’s good enough to show me a profit over the year but I’m never too proud to listen to what someone else may know about another horse in the race. In this business it pays to be open minded.
And now I’d like to discuss our biggest loser and biggest winner in one breath. 40 Points win on Mangers Hill at 7/4 (punted down to an amazing 4/6!) and our final and only bet on Saturday 10 points each way on Victorias Groom at 13/2 (also a big gamble, punted down to 4/1)
By the way Mangers Hills should have won. But he didn’t. He was the best horse in the race yet didn’t get the prize he (and we) deserved. His jockey rode very confidently (too confidently for my liking). Sometimes I think that when connections tell a jockey “Lad, you’re on a cert! He’ll win” … the jockey gets too confident and thinks he can win from any position and can end up playing too cool to be true, coming from the back of the field with a flying run and just being denied. It looks fantastic when you pull it off. But when my horse is fancied I like to see him in a good position RIGHT FROM THE START! As one of my handicappers always says to me
“Bob, you can give weight away,
… but you can’t give a start”
Breaking slowly he was last and then held up. Half a mile from home he powerfully overtook his field all the way round the outside on a bend ( you and I both know that’s the longest way to travel and means you have to race a good few lengths further) He struck the front a furlong from home and was then worried out of it by a jockey giving his horse a hard ride. Bah!
It was a huge swing because 40 points at 7/4 returns 110 points, yet we lost 40. A 150 point swing for the sake of a stronger ride! How the hell do we make a profit I sometimes wonder. It’s like paying tax at 450% let alone 45%!
Now I know you liked Victorias Groom! For two reasons. She was a BIG price and she always looked like winning! Her and the 2nd horse finished miles clear of the rest so you knew the win or 2nd was in the bag. It’s great watching those sort of races isn’t it?
Now I have a question for you and I bet I know the answer you’re going to give. The question is which bet was the better one? Magners Hill or Victorias Groom?
Bob are you crazy? I hear you say! One horse won, one lost, obviously the winner is the better bet!
Hey, not so fast … it’s not that simple.
I see my job as twofold. As a kind of coach (if you will let me be so bold) … to put before you bets which I think represent value and look to be long term profitable. So that you may choose to participate if it suits you and hopefully make yourself some decent money along the way.
But also as a friend. To tell you the truth as I see it. No matter whether you will like it or not. Because friends can tell you the truth. If someone had BO for example you’d like to think one of their friends would tell them! So I’m sharing this even though I don’t expect you’ll like the conclusion!
To make it easier to compare the bets may we “pretend” that Magners Hill won? The question is the same. Is your answer? I suspect you still prefer the Victorias Groom bet. I’ll be honest, I enjoy bets like Victorias Groom more. Because like you I prefer to risk a little to win a lot. But I know that Magners Hill is the better bet. By that I mean the most profitable.
You may be curious as to why I’m even asking this when the “winning” Magners Hill bet wins just 70 points for a risk of 40 and Victorias Groom wins 81.25 for half the risk!
The reason is we must look not at the profit. But the profitability. Ie the long term profit one bet will earn compared to the other.
You may already be aware that the SP (Starting Price) is a very good predictor of a horse’s winning chance. It’s what stock market investors call “efficient” So an even money chance wins close to 50% of the time. A 4/6 chance wins almost 60% of the time and a 6/4 chance just under 40%. 4/1 chances win just under 20% and so on.
Bookmakers have a percentage equivalent for every price. guess what it is for evens? 50% and …
4/6 is 60%
6/4 is 40%
4/1 is 20%
If you’d like the formula to calculate the percentage equivalent for any price drop me an email. I’ll send you a table with them all pre-calculated too.
Ok so using the SP as a guide we can estimate how many times we are “entitled” to win the race. Because if you could run the same race over and over again you’d find that horses like Magners Hill would win around 60% of the time. And 4/1 horses like Victorias Groom will win around 20%
So let’s pretend we run each race 10 times. And our selection wins the number of races indicated by his/her SP.
We’ll bet £100 a time to make the maths easy. And for this example we bet WIN only
Final SP = 4/1, therefore likely to win 20% of the time ie 2 races out of 10. We took odds of 13/2
So out of 10 bets
Now we bet ten times, £100 a time so our total investment is 10 x £100 or £1,000. We made £500 profit on this £1,000 so we made 50%
Therefore the expected return from Victorias Groom is 50%
Incidentally that’s a fabulous return especially when it only takes 6 minutes!
Final SP = 4/6, therefore likely to win 60% of the time ie 6 races out of 10. We took odds of 7/4
So out of 10 bets
Now we bet ten times, £100 a time so our total investment is 10 x £100 or £1,000. We made £650 profit on this £1,000 so we made 65%
Therefore the expected return from Magners Hill is 65%!
That’s an amazing return!
Based on the above assumptions the long term profit from bets like Magners Hills is 65% whereas bets like Victorias Groom would return 50%. That makes Magners Hill a 30% better bet!
I knew you wouldn’t like the answer! Everyone loves betting big priced horses! But there can be gold on those short ones too!
Caveat
It’s only fair to say that we did disregard the fact that Victorias Groom was an each way bet. And as you know I believe betting each way adds something to the value of your bet. But there’s no denying that on the above figures and betting win only, you’d win more betting Mangers Hills then you would betting Victoria Grooms!
There’s two important lessons in that bit of fun.
As I finish this late on Monday night we’d had another fabulous turnaround and we’ve already won back all last week’s losses with a nice bit on top! Moscow Catch pulled us a massive 72 points profit and got the week off to a scorching start. Don’t you just love the highs and lows of this game! It really does keep you alive eh?
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now MAGNERS
Welcome!
Here you and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names.
After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on.
This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy.
Passwords will be sent by text each week
Regards
Bob
Week 27 Profit £20,360.00 Detailed Horse Racing Results
Cobham, 0.16 am Monday 8th Dec
Another unbelievable week! £20,360 profit is outrageous!
We’ve had another stunning week and yet I’m going to be a bit of a party pooper here. For a very good reason. Your protection.
Ok we’ve had a great week let’s not deny it. In fact the last four weeks have been stunning. Now as you know I do expect to win over a year that’s true (although this is gambling so nothing’s certain!) But it’s not realistic to expect to win every week. Certainly not on this level. I don’t want you thinking this is the norm and then start betting too big so that a few losers knock you out. As sure as night follows day there will be some losing spells too. Our long term success in this business depends as much on our ability to stay the course … to complete the marathon so as to speak. It isn’t a 100 yard sprint. It’s a 200 mile slog!
Ok that’s the boring bit out of the way but if I may I’d like to just put our performance into context. Today base rate is 2%. And apart from short term “suck-you-in” short-term offers from banks and building societies the long term return on savings can be as low as 1%!
1% on your money in a bank for a year is peanuts. But the beauty of any form of trading (and I regard betting on horses as trading just the same as betting on shares or currencies) is that you can take a small edge and because you trade over and over again that small edge gets multiplied. What do I mean?
Well imagine you have a you place £20,000 worth of bets in a week and you make a 1% profit. That’s £200. Not a lot. But you might never have bet more than £1,000 and do that 50 times a year and you make 50 x 1% or 50% or £10,000! Now that’s a serious return.
Now if you placed an ad in the paper offering an investment with a 50% return you’d have an army of people wanting to bite your hand off. I don’t know any bank that offers that sort of return. I’m not even sure if Warren Buffet does? and to be fair the larger the sums of money you’re investing the harder it is to achieve a good return. the weight of your money starts acting against you. Warren Buffet invests millions if not billions. So a 10% return in a year would be very good for him.
Where am I leading in all this?
To be a Professional Punter you do have to start thinking in terms of percentages. We tend to avoid races where the bookmakers profit is high … a big percentage. For example in a 20 runner handicap they may bet to 20% profit whereas in a 8 runner maiden it could be 10%. It’s easier to win when you cherry pick better races to bet in from a punter’s point of view.
But I have a question for you. What percentage profit do you think we made last week?
To save you the math’s I’ve done it for you so let’s run through it quickly. We invested 208 points and the return was 411.6. That’s a 203.6 point profit which is … wait for it … a staggering
This is a staggering figure and it was a wonderful week. But as your friend I have to advise you it is unsustainable. We will NOT average 98% over a year. No way in Hell!
In my second year’s punting I had a golden spell and won £440,000 on a turnover of around £2m. I remember some of the comments in newspapers where the journalists were positively skeptical … they’d say begrudgingly say something like … if Mr Rothman can make 25% on turnover he must be one of the most successful punters of all time. And they’d make a big stress on the if!
Well between you and me it was true. 25% is enormous and so big that a lot of people don’t believe it’s possible. (maybe they don’t work hard enough studying eh?!)And that was when it was worth an awful lot of money. Back in 1986! Sadly I have not been able to sustain that level of winnings because it becomes impossible to get on in any size! Many clients are reporting back that they too are getting restricted by the bookies. In one case a gentleman wrote to say the bookies had happily taken his money for years when he lost but now he was winning they were running scared and limiting his bets to schoolboy size!
So let’s enjoy these golden weeks and hope we get plenty more of them but please do not base your future betting strategy or size of bet on these great weeks. Because if you do you will bet too big and if you bet too big you’ll go skint!
If we only average 1% a week we’ll do very nicely thank you. So if we have a week with a small profit … and that profit is more than 1% … I’d like you to still think “Yippee!” Because it’s a heck of a lot better than most people are doing in property or business at the moment that’s for sure!
I was very lucky when I started betting in that I made the acquaintance of another Professional Punter with some 20/30 years experience and he guided me well. I always remember one phrase that Angus said to me.
“Bob, the winning days take care of themselves. It’s the losing days you have to protect yourself from”
He had another phrase which I’ll never forget and (sadly) has been burned deep into my heart on many occasions. it’s a painful experience I hope you’ll avoid. If you do it’ll be a miracle because most Professionals will experience this at least once if not many, many times before it finally sinks in.
“Be very careful after your biggest winning day. So often the biggest losing day follows!”
Now why the heck is that? How dare the betting gods make such a stupid rule up? Surely when you win big you bet bigger and win even more? Ohhhhhhhhhhhh no.
What tends to happen after big wins is we get cocky. We think we know it all and that we walk on water. So we start lumping on Big time. The trouble is that you and I both know that we only win maybe 30% of the time. That leaves 70% for losing bets! You can easily go a week, or two or more without backing a winner. And if you’ve lumped on say 20% of your bank … you can only go 5 losing bets before you’re wiped out. That’s why I recommend a bank of at least 1,000 points, It won’t protect you from a really bad losing run. But it’ll sure help get through most of them!
Suppose you unearthed a marvelous system that won 90% of the time. 9 winners out of 10! (You really would be walking on water!) You’d bet winner after winner after winner! But … if you got cocky and decided the system was so great that you bet everything … sure as eggs are eggs, sooner or later, that 1 loser in 10 will come along and wipe you out!
Ok that’s enough about being sensible. I’m only hammering the point home because I want you to be able to bet winners for a very long time and so I’m imploring you to be sensible and cautious when I know it probably goes against part of your nature. It’s pretty obvious you must have an element of risk taking in your personality otherwise you wouldn’t have the guts to even place a bet! Not just because it’s great if you can make money from something as crazy as betting horses! But also because it’s FUN winning too! I don’t know about you but when I’ve had a good week I walk a bit taller … with a spring in my step and an even bigger smile on my face! I become a nicer person to know!
And it doesn’t matter if you win £100 or £1,000. If you win you feel good. so let’s focus on staying in the game so we have a chance to keep winning for a long time. The last time we had two bad weeks I lost 2 clients who’d been with me since the beginning. They should have had enough in reserve to see them through. Sadly they didn’t and they had to leave the club though I hope they may rejoin later. But what’s even sadder is that since those two bad weeks ( 5 and 6 weeks ago) when we lost 200 points ( £20,000 at £100 per point) … we’ve won 771 points!! (£77,122,50 at £100 per point stakes)
That’s more than THREE times the losses. They would have got it all back and be sitting pretty with even more profit in the bank. Yet those two guys have missed out just because they bet too big during the bad weeks. Please, please bet carefully!
A quick chat about the week now, though it was so good we hardly need to say anything! The good days look after themselves!
Monday: Dayia. A 2 mile race with our horse looking like he was going to win or be second for sure, only for it end in a bunch finish with 4 horses separated by less than a length … and we finished 4th. It was an unbelievable 24 point kick in the goolies! To be frank if you have a result like that at any time in a week you’d have to expect to end up losing that week. 24 points is an awful lot to make up.
An awful days racing. Poor quality animals who are not a good betting medium. Maid of Ailsa missed the break and never faced the kickback which about summed it up for the day.
I was beginning to wish I’d taken the week off and gone abroad! Maybe I was getting stale and missing something? I usually work 5 weeks and then take a few days break because I find I win more doing that. 5 weeks is a long time to keep up the intense focus needed for racing and if you’re a bit stale you seem to miss the “golden” calls. A lot of research on peak performance shows it drops off after a few weeks (which is maybe why some horses only replicate peak form if they race around 14 days later)
Amoreigh was a another horse certain to win or be second (he and the winner were 20 lengths clear coming to the second last) so I was feeling quite comfortable with our each way bet knowing we couldn’t lose … when he tipped up and fell!! Ouch. That’s twice in 3 days and even though it was only a 5 point each way bet it was another 10 points down the can and an almost impossible position to recover from. When you’re losing it would be a heck of a lot cheaper to go away and not bet! 34 points on two unlucky each way losers was going to make this a bad week I was sure.
More rubbish racing and I could only find two bets from all the runners. Most of these horses you and I could run faster than!
Spiritual Art was a welcome winner and confirmed the gallop lines with Kinigi who we’ve enjoyed two good wins on and who now races off 65.My spies had spotted Spiritual Art galloping well with horses of his caliber and as she was only rated 58 we knew she had a great chance. Heavily gambled she travelled like a dream just behind the leaders and powered clear for an easy win. About time!
What a great day! Kings Destiny stormed home in the first. And then Mistress to No-one landed an enormous gamble very easily indeed. 9/2 winners with a good size stake soon repair the bank and we stormed up to an amazing 31 point profit by the end of the day. What a comeback!
A magnificent day and several clients enjoyed even bigger wins than advised by using their initiative.
Our first bet Cape Express didn’t run till late in the evening but was a facile winner and another huge gamble. He’d been working brilliantly.
Then we had one of my favourite bets of all time the infamous each way double. The power of this bet is that if the horse both place you still make a small profit. But when they both win as they did on Saturday the return is simply mouthwatering!
I gave out the bet as a 5 point each way double on Fabula at 9/2 and Three Ducks at 2/1 and intended giving you a 8-10 point each way bet on Fabula as well. I was watching the markets and it looked like he’d drift out to 5/1 so I was holding back to get you the best odds on the single. I wanted to give you the double earlier as they take a bit longer to get on. Then one of my men as Sandown rang on the other line and started running through the rest of the Henderson runners plus what he’d heard about other horses at the track.
I must be getting stale because frankly I got sidetracked and suddenly the race was almost off. Fabula had drifted out to almost 11/2 on the exchanges so I was surprised he hadn’t shown 5/1 yet. And then they were called into line and I realised it was too late to give you the second bet.
You know the result, Fabula won and you should have been enjoying a big win already. I was now praying Three Ducks would do the decent thing for you and win so you’d have a good return as it’s really annoying if you have a double and one wins and the other doesn’t. Luckily perhaps because I had missed the time off for the Three Ducks race several clients called to say they’d “guessed” I might have missed something else off too and backed Fabula on its own as well as in the double!! A double payday! Obviously I didn’t text out the single bet on Fabula so I cannot put it on the report but well done to you if you backed him singly as well. It was still a great win!
Clay Hollister absolutely destroyed his field ad it was almost embarrassing how easy he won. But I’m never embarrassed to collect the winnings! And then in the evening Royal Island was another huge gamble and looked like he was on jet fuel, an easy winner.
A marvelous day and several clients texted or emailed to say they’d had a fantastic day! Incidentally I love to hear about all your good wins so feel free to email me and let me know about them at bob@horseracingpro.co.uk
I won’t always be able to reply promptly so if you need a quick reply it’s best to write to the girls at info@horseracingpro.co.uk as I only log in every day or so and it depends if I’ve finished my studying as racing always has to come first as you’ll understand.
A great week! Hope you celebrated, bought something for yourself or a friend or made a difference to someone’s life. I love week’s like that! Wonder why the bookies don’t??????!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website
Posted in Results
Welcome! Here you and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names. After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on. This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy. Passwords will be sent by text each week Regards Bob Week 26 Profit £17,800.00 Detailed Horse Racing Results Another excellent week! We had 20 bets and an outstanding 60% strike rate with horses winning or being placed when we bet them win or each way. And the 8 Good winners out of 20 bets represents a 40% strike rate which I consider excellent. That brings me on to an interesting point. Many friends have forwarded “tipster mailings” to me and asked for my opinion. I’m saddened to see that very many of them make simply outrageous claims that cannot be true. Whenever you see someone advertising a “Guaranteed 70% strike rate” at fancy odds then shove your wallet into your pocket as deep as you can get it and run a mile! In all probability it’s a scam. I’d bet on it! In fact if anyone could get even close to 70% strike rate (at odds against) he could come on my payroll right now and never have to work again! A realistic strike rate is UNDER 50%. Yep under 50%. I have some of the best people in the Country helping me, spend an absolute fortune of speed figures, form figures, computer analysis, private handicapping not to mention the constant flow of information. And I don’t expect to do any better than 30-40% over a season. Yet at that strike rate we’ve made a small fortune this year. Now it’s not because I’m brilliant because I’m not. But we do have a fantastic team of Professionals all working together to make this work and as a result we bet enough winners at decent odds to win plenty. But we won’t do much better than 30%-40% with our win bets. Of course we do bet each way a lot. And that does bring up the strike rate no question. As you know I believe we win more by betting each way partly because we can afford to take a bigger risk when you bet each way and partly because I believe the place part of the bet has great value. Last week was a milestone for the service too. It’s been running for 6 months and so to celebrate it’s “half birthday” I’ve produced a graph showing the whole 6 month journey. It’s under the results tab on the horseracingpro.brookscustomers.com website or if you’d like to go direct to the graph it’s on If you study the graph you’ll notice a couple of things Anyway it’s been a good week and a great 6 months. I’ve had some wonderful letters and emails in this week and each one has lifted my spirits and made me smile from ear to ear. I love winning and beating the bookies no question. You can’t beat having a good bet, seeing it storm home and then collecting a big wad of cash afterwards and stuffing it in your pockets! It’s a terrific feeling. But it makes it even better hearing you’ve won too. I know it may sound corny but I really do get even more pleasure knowing you’ve won (or I assume you have!) whenever one of the selections lands a gamble. Especially if it’s a big price or a big bet. When Stradbrook won on Tuesday for example I was over the moon. A stonking 40 pointer and it won in a canter! That was good! Real good! So please keep the letters and emails coming, let me know when you win, it makes my day reading about it and doubles the pleasure of winning! I’ve set up a special email address at admin@horseracingpro.co.uk which you can send them to if you’re an email person! I’m only just getting to grips with it myself to be honest and tend to only read emails when I get a phone call to say “Hey Bob, I’ve sent you an email” when friends are wondering why I haven’t replied! So if you need an urgent answer best to ring the office! Ok let’s have a quick chat about the highlights of the week… Great start! The first bet of the week, Kia Kaha, wins easily and unusually for us he ended up a BIGGER price! Lady Luck must have been smiling on us because he met the 3rd last all wrong and almost came down. To the horse’s great credit he was back on the bridle almost immediately, an indication of how much he had in hand. To be fair if you make a mistake in a jump race it usually means it’s all over. He won in a canter and still had plenty up his sleeve. My only regret was not making him a 20 point bet! And if the 9/4 Sp had been available in the morning it would have been a 20 point win or each way bet. You never have enough on the winners especially when they win so easily! A good days “work” and £2,400 profit at the end! Rather better than most have done on the stock market recently I suspect! A stunning day! We enjoyed a rare, close to maximum bet when we invested a massive 40 points on Stradbrook. Maybe you felt extra confident when you saw it was the same owner/ trainer/ jockey combination as our easy win yesterday? Because it was a leap of faith to back a horse so heavily after a 298 day absence! It’s horses like this that give you confidence in the wonderful team of analyst and informants who provide the flow of information and feedback which is invaluable in the process of making our selections. Stradbrook did not go off a bigger price! … hardly surprising as every bookie who took a caning the day before must have been pooping their pants again when we hit them with this beauty! … and just so don’t get the worng impression, I’m sorry but I do NOT get all the JP/Jonjo/McCoy horses! No-one does. I think JP has over 300 dotted around, Jonjo has a big stable and McCoy could get on most horses if he really wanted to so if you see one of their runners and especially one in JP’s famous colours and I haven’t bet it don’t make the mistake of thinking it’s not fancied. Most run on merit and at Cheltenham he may have 2 or 3 runners in a race. It’s not unheard of for the outsider to win and although he’s a big gambler I can assure you that when that happens it’s rarely a plot. Simply the fact that they are all trying and that in a handicap there really isn’t a lot to split the most and least fancied horses. In any case every day I may hear about 10-50 horses and cannot possibly bet them all. Sure I miss plenty of winners that are fancied but that’s not the point. It’s whether we can make a profit out of the fancied horses we do bet! Boomshakala was a rare Henderson horse that let us down although he did finish 3rd. You may have wondered why I didn’t bet him each way at 3/1 as the 8 Points each way returns 12.8 points and reduces the loss to 3.2 points instead of 8 for the straight win. The reason I didn’t bet him each way is because he can pull hard. Horses that pull rarely win and usually “blow up” in other words they run out of breathe because they waste so much energy fighting their jockey. My information was he was working well and had settled down since last year although still exuberant. So I was a bit worried he might still pull too hard for his own good and that’s why it was a smallish bet and I decided not to risk the place portion of the bet. Of course I regretted it afterwards but that’s racing. 20/20 is perfect vision and you can only call it the way you see it before the race. He actually did remarkably well to finish in the frame considering how he pulled in the race. He blew up coming to the last and it’s only his class that enabled him to stay in the places whereas most horses would have then been well beaten. If he settles he’ll be dangerous! I bet you smiled when you saw the next bet! Doctor David. Beaten by an odds on Henderson trained favourite last time and today was taking on what? A Red Hot Henderson trained odds on favourite!! What the heck was going on? Maybe that made you more confident if you were reading between the lines? I promise you I didn’t know that French Opera would fall!! but he wouldn’t have won if he’d stood up! In contrast Doctor David jumped superbly and absolutely stormed home a very easy winner indeed. A poor days racing and the only bet on the card was Henderson horse in the bumper. He was heavily gambled and we had way over the odds but faded when he came to win the race. You must have felt like Golden Balls today! It was hard to anything but win! know at least one client enjoyed a lovely 3 doubles and a treble on the 3 winners and collected around a cool £1,600 for £25 stakes! That’s really handy with Xmas just coming! What more can I say? 4 early bets and 3 great winners. A terrific day. Rebel City was a big gamble at the night meeting and although coming to win the race and trying really hard just wasn’t good enough. He’ll win a modest race. Yet another great winner from the Hobbs stable (we bet Cooper Bleu and BallyDub the day before). You’ll remember we had a big bet on him each way when he had his seasonal debut and only just failed (and should have won) finishing 3rd after making a couple of mistakes and getting badly hampered. You can see now why I wanted such a big bet on him when he made his start to hurdling. he clearly has a big engine and the gallop reports about his sparkling work at home were spot on! Ballyaahbutt! How close! A terrific 8/1 each way bet that looked like winning for 90% of the race. Always travelling well just lobbing along he looked really good and traded at odds on in running. When the leader jumped across him at the final flight I thought he had no chance. But then even though he had to be switched he came right back at him and it was under a length at the line. He’d have won with a clear run … and he’d have won easily if the jockey had kicked on when he was cantering instead of letting other horses get into the race. No damage done and a small profit but it could have been an incredible finale to a stunning week. When I saw the big drift for Saptapadi I was worried he would be a “non trier” or given a gentle introduction because I know the horse needs a lot of driving at home. If you don’t push him along he does nothing! But he has got an engine! It’s just that he’s like an unruly teenager and needs cajoling to use it! He’d be an easy horse to lose on because you have to make an effort 110% of the race. If the jockey missed the break and then just sat on him like so many seem to he wouldn’t stand a prayer. I’m always monitoring the markets to see how honestly horses are likely to run and it was a concern … It needn’t have been as it turned out because Dale Gibson pushed him along in a winning position all through the race and he almost pulled of the coup. He battled throughout with the winner and was only beaten a length in a dead heat for 2nd. Amazingly for one of our horses he went off a bigger price too, 7/1! That’s twice in a week! Are the bookies losing their respect for us? Sadly I doubt it! I wish they would, it’d make it a heck of a lot easier to get bets on and clean them out! – No bets. Well that’s now 6 months of rock solid profits and over 500 bets! (519 actually). That’s a massive amount of business and proves beyond any shadow of a doubt there’s no fluke about it. There’s no way you can bet that number of horses and make a profit unless you are betting some seriously well fancied horses. We’ve turned over 8,069 points and won 2,317 that’s a staggering 28.7% profit. And that’s all starting with a 20 point bet on June 6th. From that point on we’ve always been in profit. Just imagine you could have started with a £200 bet and now have £23,170 in the bank! Of course you wouldn’t have quite that much as you’ll have missed plenty of prices, and inevitably the odd winner as well as some losers too. But I’m sure you’re up a fair bit and I imagine you’ve had lots of fun doing it too! You can probably see why I love this business so much … and after every winning day I tell myself I am so lucky to be able to be a player in this great game! May the Racing Gods continue to shine on us! Roll on Cheltenham!! All the best Bob Rothman PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website horseracingpro.brookscustomers.com is now STRADBROOK Welcome! Here you and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names. After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on. This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy. Passwords will be sent by text each week Regards Bob Week 25 Profit £11,582.5.00 Detailed Horse Racing Results Cobham, 10.05 pm Monday 24th Nov Another solid weeks profits! Ten grand plus! In a week. That’s half a million pounds a year! Amazing really. Can you now see how it really is possible to earn a fabulous 6 figure income … simply betting horses for a living! Of course that sounds easy and any professional knows it isn’t. There is an enormous amount of work that goes on behind the behind the scenes by the various team members who help us out. Most Professionals I know put in at least 10/12 hours a day solid … and would like to do more! … and then there’s the sharp end. Getting the bets on. It’s not as easy as people first imagine. In fact I bet most of your friends have no idea what a sweat it is to try and get the best price. Rushing to the bookies or trying to log onto your internet account before the odds evaporate like Scotch Mist as the yellow-belly bookies dive for cover! I know how hard you must work getting trying to get the best odds and applaud you for your efforts … many punters think it’s just a question of ringing up your bookies or slapping a grand down on the counter and the bet’s on. I wish! I know how frustrating it is to miss the best prices too. Because you know that over a period of time you’ll back plenty of winners. And every time the bookies cheat you of a point they are effectively stealing cash out of your pocket. It infuriates me how they get away with taking any bet off a mug punter who loses all the time … but as soon as you start backing “warm” horses they don’t want to know you. I’ve been rushing around for 20 years opening up accounts and betting under disguises so I know it all too well. If you lose, the bookies welcome you with open arms and a big smile. Then when you start winning … or even looking like you’ll win (because you’re backing the horses they don’t want you to!) Ok, that’s enough moaning about bookmakers cutting odds too quickly. Because unusually the odds for one of our biggest bets this week, Issaquah at 5/1 … were there all day long! … and you could still get 5/1 at the off. The bookies took a serious caning and we cleaned up nicely! Ok so how did the week go? Great start again. £3,500 in the bin, a good days “work”! Frustrating. Treaty Flyer was run out of the places and made a 12 point hole in the tank. A so-so day. Horrible. Jokers Legacy blew up after looking like the winner. Joe’s a Boy ran a stinker and connections were mystified. They interviewed the trainer on TV afterwards and he had no clue. Maybe it was the ground. Maybe someone kicked him in the goollies before the race? who knows. He was punted into the ground as if he was a cert .. and ran a shocker. Very odd. Just one of those events in racing you have to take on the chin. Rumble of Thunder ran 3rd but two non runners meant the places were reduced to 2 so he was a loser. International Debut landed a lovely gamble but the same trainers Bishopbriggs ran too free and didn’t handle the bend. Three Ducks ran green and will improve. He was disappointing, they expected a win as you could tell from the huge gamble on him. Two nice winners. A big bet on Gone to Lunch landed with consummate ease. And another easy 4/1 winner when Jigsaw Dancer bolted in on his chase debut. He’d been jumping brilliantly at home. Eastern Warrior and Bullet Man were both expensive 4ths, just missing the frame and costing us a valuable 22 points. How did Prince of Beauchene not win? Coolly letting the front runner get a 20 length lead he ran him down and took it up looking sure to win. Then got caught close home. Maybe if he’d made his effort earlier and taken it up sooner he would have won easily? It didn’t really matter because we cleaned out the bookies big time with Issaquah a big 20 point each way bet. I know we’ve discussed this before but one new client asked me a question I must get asked every week so if I may I’d like to just touch on it very briefly … “Does an each way bet mean you are less confident?” NO!! absolutely not. As you know I love betting each way. I’ll bet all sorts of crazy prices each way because I believe we win more by doing so. Of course you don’t have to copy me. But I think you will win more (and lose less) if you do. For the record if I was only allowed to bet Issaquah win only for example (as some bookies insist on the racetrack) then my bet would have been a 10 or 12 point win. It’s precisely because of the insurance of the place bet that allows you to bet bigger! Often being able to bet each way make a horse a STRONGER bet, not weaker as we discussed before. The hardest day’s racing of the week because so many owners want to win on a day they can go to the races with friends. They’re all trying! Yet we still managed to put another 21 points or £2,160 on the scoreboard. Let’s face it, if you could make £2,000 every Saturday I’m betting you’d be very happy! Our two biggest bets won and 4 small bets lost. Yet we still made a good profit. That because we bet in proportion to the winning chance of the horse and the value on the bet not some numpty, level-stake betting system which needs no brains to operate and reduces your profit potential. – No bets. Over 25 weeks we’ve made £213,897 at £100 per point stakes. that’s an average of an average of £9,299.87 per week. So I guess you would say we had an above average week! Of course if I was offered a job at £9,000 a week I think I’d have to seriously consider it even though I love betting horses. Because there is always the chance you can lose, with a job you get paid (for a while anyway) whether you do a good job or not so good. No luxuries like that in betting! We have to be excellent all the time to even stand a chance of winning. Many clients have been with me since the launch in June and know there are ups and downs. I know it seems so easy when we are winning. But please bet sensibly, stake in proportion to your bank and perhaps you’d like to note the guidance I give in the points suggested. It does seem like we always win in the end I know. But we have had two spells of two losing weeks … and so mathematically I guess it’s just as likely to have one spell of 4 weeks instead! Ouch! Gambling is a volatile business and the rewards can be immense. But there are ALWAYS losing spells and anyone who tells you otherwise is an idiot or a con man. I still remember when I started betting back in 1987. Winning £440,000 in my second year was fantastic! … but … wait for this … In that year … I had TWO losing months. Hard to believe isn’t it? Trust me I was dumbstruck. But it happens and just as day follows night and summer follows winter you have to pick yourself up, dust yourself off and carry on. That’s if you can. Because if you lose your tank the game is over. And I’m mentioning this because I lost two clients after our bad spell 2 weeks ago and that makes me really sad. Because if they’d been able to stick it out … they would now have won almost twice as much as they lost over those two weeks … and that’s not even accounting for the massive cushion of profits already built up before. That’s why your first priority must be always to make sure your bets are small enough that you can withstand a losing run. To win you have to be able to stay in the game. Over 25 weeks I’ve shown you it is possible to win … and win pretty big. Over an enormous number of bets. So clearly no fluke. But I won’t pretend it’s easy and missing a winner or the odds will cost. The good news is the evidence shows if we keep doing what we’ve always done … we should always win eventually. Great to have you on board because it is so much more enjoyable when I know you’ve won as well. Somehow winning together enhances the experience. I guess winning alone is a bit like being Scrooge at Xmas! So thanks for being part of the team and making it so much more enjoyable for me … All the best Bob Rothman Welcome! Here you and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names. After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on. This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy. Passwords will be sent by text each week Regards Bob Week 24 Profit £27,380.00 Detailed Horse Racing Results What a week! We started off with a wonderful near maximum bet winner, with 40 points on Kinigi. In one swoop we’d wiped out all losses from the previous week with a profit on top. … and then followed that winner up with two more handsome wins at 100/30 and 7/1! It was stunning day and we’d turned round the previous dry spell with a fantastic £16,800 winning day, one of our best! That’s one of the most amazing aspects of gambling for a living. You can have a dry spell and be scratching your head wondering when the next winner will ever come! Frankly it’s hard not to lose confidence. We all do and the challenge is that if you lose your confidence your betting goes to pieces. You may start having too much on big priced horses trying to win it all back in one hit. And equally badly there a tendency to scale back big bets on short priced horses. If you just been losing it’s easy to get “gun-shy” and become scared of losing more. So instead of a nice 20 point win on a 6/4 chance you end up having a poxy 4pt win because you can’t stomach a 20 point loss. Somehow it seems easier to have a few 3 and 4 pt ew bets on big priced horses hoping to fluke a 20 or 30 point win. It doesn’t work and you’ll only ever show a profit in the long run if you stick to a sound staking plan. You know my views on level stake staking. It sucks and it’s for amateur professionals or people who don’t have the time to study and analyse races properly. The only time it might be appropriate to use level stakes is if you are blindly following a system. Systems don’t differentiate between good, great and stunning bets. They are all the same to a system. But if you get good information, know something about form and ability ratings, can read a race and understand basic principles of handicapping and perhaps have software to help you get it all done quicker then the more complex variable staking methods can work wonders for you. Of course in your case I do it for you and just deliver the end result ie a bet of “x” points at odds of “y”. But there’s nothing stopping you doing it yourself and comparing your deliberations to mine. I’m certainly not infallible and there’s plenty of race handicappers who can read races a lot better than I can. (That’s why I employ a couple to help me out!) Apart from our information I believe our staking plan delivers a unique advantage and maximises our profits. It’s made fantastic profits for me for years, but I will admit it takes a heck of a lot of work. Instead of the one-size-fits-all simplistic approach of level stakes, our bets are tailor made for each race. Each race has to be studied carefully and the form and messages for all the horse in the race taken into context. And this leads nicely on to a subject I’d like to discuss very briefly. Messages from stables that can lead you astray. Let me give you a hypothetical example to illustrate… I don’t know if you’ve ever subscribed to other tipping services but I suspect you may have. Or picked up juicy tips from your own stable contacts. Maybe you know an owner? Maybe you are an owner? The biggest mistake most stables make in my opinion is not properly evaluating their horses ability IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RACE. For example a small stable has a horse they call “Superstar” Superstar has never run before so they’re not sure how good he is. But he destroys all their other horses on the gallops. All the stable lads love him. They’ve been saving up their weekly wages to back it when it runs. And why not? After all they’ve seen with their own eyes how easily it beats everything at home. The problem is the stable is a small stable and don’t have any really good horses to test its mettle against. They have say 20 horses and they are all rated between 40 and 60. Let’s say the second best horse in the yard is called Seaside Donkey, and he’s rated 60. Superstar beats Seaside Donkey by 3 lengths when they gallop at home and the other horses in the stable are some way behind these two. Now the work looks great to anyone watching. But looking at it logically, unemotionally, all you can really say is Superstar is 3 lengths better than Seaside Donkey … which means he’s 3 lengths better than a 60 rated horse. Over 5 furlongs a length is general accepted to be worth 3lbs. So Superstar is 3 lengths x 3lbs or 9lbs superior to Seaside Donkey. Ie Superstar is a 69 horse) Ok so now comes the day when Superstar goes to the races. They enter it in a maiden at Newmarket even though the powerful Newmarket yards have runners there too. But they figure their best horse should go and run in a decent race to show how good it is! In this race most of the horses are no-hopers but there are 3 possible dark horses who are all unraced but hail from big powerful stables. Somehow you’ve managed find out what the word on the street is … and that word is that none of the Newmarket horses are “fancied” Why not? Well each of the powerful stables tell you their horse is “rubbish” because he finishes last in his work group. Horses often work in groups of 3 so you might sensibly ask the question “What are the other horses rated in the work group?” before you take this rumour as gospel and fall into the trap that so many people are going to today. Stable 1 tell you the work group consists of a slow Horse called Plodder and two 90 rated horses. Stable 2 tell you their work group consist of 2 95 horses and a slow horse called Sloth. Stable 3’s work group consists of one slow horse called Dawdler and two 110 horses. Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler finish last in their groups and are each beaten say 5 lengths by their quicker companions. That’s a long way to be beaten and that’s why the lads from these stables think these horses aren’t very good. Plodder is approximately a 75 horse, as he works 5 lengths behind two 90 rated horse. 5 lengths x 3lbs equals 15 lbs. Deduct 15lbs from the 90 rating of his companions and you arrive at a figure of around 75 for his ability ie 90-15=75. Sloth is approximately an 80 horse (15lbs behind two 95 horses, 95-15=80) and Dawdler is a 95 horse (15lbs inferior to two 100 horses, 110-15 =95) In the powerful stables’ work groups the horses finishing last in the work groups look poor in comparison to their illustrious stable companions. But they can be different class to the best horse in a small stable. So if you blindly follow stable messages you’ll think the race consists of three slow horses with little chance (Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler, actual ability levels 75, 80 and 95) and one good horse called Superstar (actual ability 69) Rate horses by their ability either on the racetrack or on home gallops … not on racecourse rumours Superstar could end up being a hot favourite because of (incorrect) racecourse rumours about how brilliant he is whereas Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler may become attractive betting propositions at bigger odds and will probably even drift in the betting. Horses like this can become stunning each way bets! If the race follows gallops work at home the 3 “slow” horses will finish 1st 2nd and 3rd! … with Dawdler winning the race, Sloth coming 2nd and Plodder 3rd. Poor old Superstar will finish 4th at best! Many punters will burn their fingers and scratch their heads. But in reality if you’d been able to analsye the horses’ abilities correctly that’s exactly where you’d expect them all to finish. So “messages” have to be taken in context. Every horse’s ability has to be evaluated in the context of the race it is running in today. Sometimes a horse will be a great bet. sometimes awful. That’s why you have to adjust the stakes to suit the situation Anyway that’s basically why we had a near maximum bet on Kinigi … Now this report is late (live on Wednesday night) partly because it takes me such a long time to compose not being a writer! .. and of course studying racing is my top priority. I’m considering putting up the Profit Statement on the Website on Monday mornings without a discussion and then adding the discussion later in the week if I have I have time. I’d appreciate your feedback as to which part is the most valuable to you? And now a very brief chat about the weeks racing. The great thing about a good winning week is it doesn’t need much explanation. If the horse wins we’re all happy! Enough said. I did discuss one bet in detail our 40 pointer on Monday only because I thought it illustrated a point you might find useful when you’re evaluating any other information you may acquire on your racing travels! Fabulous start. A near maximum bet winner and two others at decent odds. 3 Great winners on the day at 7/1, 100/30 and 9/4. A day to savor. One bet, one 5/1 winner! It doesn’t get much better than that! Tricky day. Two 2nds a 3rd and a 4th made it tough though Laurel Creek was an easy 7/2 winner for us and was also heavily gambled. A slight setback day but we were still £13,750 up at the end of it so little damage done. A quiet day. hot Diamond was 2nd after a big gamble and then a small each way bet at 10/1 didn’t make the frame. Another big priced horses day! laudatory was a decent 12 Points ew winner at 11/2, Boldenka won at 5/2 and Zaffie Parkinson an each way bet at 9/1 went very close finishing 2nd. A good day and profits now £19,070 on the week. I was hoping we’d hit the £20,000 barrier but with only Saturday (the toughest day’s racing) to look forward to it was no foregone conclusion. he hardest day’s racing of the week because so many owners want to win on a day they can go to the races with friends. They’re all trying! We did very well with 7 bets of which 5 won or were placed pushing the profits over £20,000 for the week! – A stunning 7/1 winner,. Won in a canter and was very impressive indeed. Unusually for one of our horses we took under the odds! The bet was a decent 8 Points ew at 13/2 and he actually won at 7/1! Great day though. No complaints! A stunning week with a profit of £27,380 to £100 per point stakes. Just imagine if you could bet like that for a year … you’d make well over a million!! Lovely thought eh? Profits have finally crept through the £200,000 barrier to £202,314.50. That’s terrific work for 24 weeks betting! It’s been a marvelous 1st 6 months for the Service and as much as I’d love to keep winning at this rate I d think it’s been especially good. My target for the year was to win an extra £10,000 for you at £10 per point ie £100,000 at my usual £100 per point stakes. We’ve surpassed that 400% and hopefully we’ll continue to add to it. I doubt the next 6 months will be quite so spectacular but you never know! That’s the beauty of racing! All the best Bob Rothman PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website is now KINIGI Welcome! Here you and you alone can view the full details of last week’s betting including the horses names. After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on. This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy. Passwords will be sent by text each week Regards Bob Week 23 Loss £7.050 Detailed Horse Racing Results I’m completing this report on Monday afternoon/evening in between races and bets and so it would be remiss not to mention the great results we had today. Last week we lost 70 points which was pretty demoralising. Today we WON 168 points and wiped out that loss and added a stunning profit with 3 great winners at 7/1, 100/30 and 9/4! What a day! I’ll be talking about today in more detail next week of course. But it only goes to show how volatile this business can be. From the depths of despair to elation in 24 hours! And how important it is to keep the faith if you have what you believe is a winning formula. It also confirmed we’re betting the right sort of horses. Last week we had some rough times. The worse was the appalling ride by Dean McKeown on Rascal in the Mix on whom we’d invested 15 pts ew at 6/1. If you saw the race, or even better saw the ruthless dissection of McKeown by ATR’s presenter Sean Boyce you’d see how we were robbed. Mckeown’s riding licence was taken away from him with immediate effect. I for one was pleased. Hanging on to the horse’s head and forcing it sky high as the stalls opened he “missed” the break. Then he sat right back on the horse stopping it running for almost a furlong. It was buried at the rear. Sitting motionless as the horse still cruised up looking dangerous he finally consented to waving his arms around as the horse ran on with no help whatsoever from the saddle. Many, many professionals were of the opinion the horse would have won in a canter if he’d tried. It was daylight robbery and sadly we were robbed of both a nice 108 point win … and we also lost our 30 point stake!!! That once race alone was a 138 point swing and would have turned our week into a 35 point profit! Disgraceful The jockey club immediately suspended his license and basically told him not to bother appealing. What was incredible was that he did this only a few days after he’d been found guilty of stopping horses and had his license taken away for 4 YEARS! Sadly jockey club rules state that under these circumstance they have to allow 7 days for an appeal and in those 7 days the jockey can continue riding! And in those 7 days McKeown pulled a stroke like this. It’s thought he was so fed up at getting caught he decided to take the mickey and put two fingers up at the establishment. Sadly we got caught up in it because you could clearly see that horse would have won no matter what McKeown and Whittaker said afterwards. No doubt trying to cover up? At The Races had a couple of interesting videos including the one where they actually had a special camera focused solely on his performance because the suspicious betting patterns on Betfair had alerted them to the possibility the horse would not be trying. It’s quite comical. Here’s the link where they were being shown all last week but they may have taken it down by tomorrow … http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/list.aspx?ref=console+main+nav&ctype=news&date=2008-11-05&brand=ATR Non runners – We had 3 non runners last week, Steam Cuisine, Pascha Bere and Shamali. Make sure you get your stakes back especially if you had a cash bet in a betting shop. If you bet on account it should be automatically returned to you but if you only checked results on teletext you might have thought they’d lost so a small bonus! So now a brief chat about the week … Monday: Good start to the week and again the Henderson stable came up trumps with a nice winner in the Bumper, Madame MADO (mis- typed as Maro in the Profit report) They’ve been brilliant this season and it’s always a good stable to have on your side at Cheltenham. I can’t wait for the Festival, It’s the highlight of the jumping season and the week I most look forward to all year! Tuesday: McKeown cost us a fortune. To add insult to injury I was out but got a call warning me of the suspicious betting movements. There was a racecourse rumor the horse hadn’t travelled well? I guess that might have been one put out to explain the alarming drift? Anyway as a result I figured the favourite was good value if you took the horse out of the race that I’d expected to win. So I invested another 10 points on the race at 11/8. We were right because Desert Strike was then punted down to odds on going off the hot 5/6 favourite but was beaten by my only other runner in the race Denton Diva. If I’d had more time to re-evaluate I would probably have bet that one each way as at round the 5/1 mark it was outstanding each way value. The net result was we lost 40 points on a race where we should have been 108 up! Ouch that was horrible. I felt like sending McKeown a bill! Wednesday: Jakeini was a gamble from 7/1 down to 9/2 favourite and was only beaten by another gamble. He showed a small profit (it was a 1/4 the odds, 4 places race) but not enough to balance the “mugging” from the day before. Thursday: Another dodgy day and a bad result. Some good contacts put me on standby for a big gamble on Lord of the Dance. The bookies pooed their pants big time. Backed from 20/1 down to around 4/1 in minutes. It was embarrassing to see grown men (bookies) crying and refusing to take bets because they were so scared. Isn’t that why they’re in business? At 4/1 it was obvious they’d completely overreacted so advised waiting for the Shows and betting later if you missed the big early prices which were really hard to get. Why don’t they act like men and hold their prices for say 15 minutes? It really is sad. The SP was 15/2 so we called that part of the price right but he ran a shocker. Now it could be that Eustace doesn’t have enough good horses to be able to know if his horse was good enough to win a race like that. But I was so upset with this contact I called him up afterwards and told him I had renamed him the “useless Eustace man” … and then gave him the sack. I probably wouldn’t have been so upset had Rascal in the Mix won on Tuesday but I’d had a gutful of horses running inexplicably badly and decided to start doing more “late” bets. That way the dopers/nobblers/rogue bookies/cheating layers wouldn’t get as much notice of a good horse and have too much time to figure out how to get it beat! Tony McCoy is a jockey you can always rely on to ride a good race and put everything in. But when he almost fell off at the second on Coe, miraculously staying in the saddle but sadly losing his whip in the process I could feel the day turning from bad to worse. Without the whip there wasn’t a lot he could do apart from hack around and understandably once horses came to him he couldn’t do much about it. Unlucky, best forgotten. Steam Cuisine kicked himself in the box and was lame so withdrawn. Friday: A bad days racing and no bets Saturday The Henderson stable have been making us a pretty packet but let us down with their banker bet of the day. Ravello Bay turned in a dismal performance but burst from both nostrils and was looked after (bursting is internal bleeding from the lungs and the lungs fill with blood choking the horse) A run best ignored. Chomba Womba won and frankly I forgot to put it up. I’d had it in my mind to bet all week and on the day got distracted with messages for the Nichols horse in the race and decided to put it on one side for later. I got sidetracked as I had to go out for a meeting. A mistake. Sorry Aux La Bahhn was a great 8/1 winner for us though winning comfortably in the end. Pascha Bere was withdrawn because the ground went too soft. I’m always happy when they withdraw a horse because it shows they care about winning and don’t want to run if their chance is lessened for any reason. That’s one danger of betting say Arab owned horses. They’re so rich they hardly bother with betting and have so many horses they need to get them all running to find out which are the best ones. A bad run here or there doesn’t bother them but it does bother you and I if we’ve had our hard earned cash on! 2 small bets on big priced horses in big races on the Flat didn’t make the frame. At big odds (Aahayson was around 20/1 for example you only need to win one in 10 races to make a lot of money. The problem is the 9 losing races to “pay” for the win. That’s why they’re small stake bets because otherwise they eat up too much of the bank. Shamali was a non runner because one of the floodlights blew at Wolverhampton knocking out a series of lights which they couldn’t fire up again for some electrical reason. Maybe a wire burned out but they couldn’t fix it in time so the whole meeting was abandoned. Amazing that one blown “bulb” can cause so much chaos! Sunday – No bets A tough week where we were sadly “robbed” by the unfortunate actions of a jockey. He has been punished but it doesn’t get our money back. We has some bad luck too, eg McCoy losing his whip and also one very big bet that ran a stinker? mmm very odd? However no matter how bad the week is I always expect to turn it around soon. I know I back enough good horses to win over a period of time. Amazingly by the time I finish this report on Monday night we’re already sitting on a handsome profit of 168 points on the week! In a single day’s betting! It puts into context the previous week’s losses and just shows what a fabulous “business” racing can be don’t you agree? Tell me another business you can make £16,800 in a day for 30 minutes “work” (6 bets, say 5 minutes a bet?) I absolutely love racing and betting horses to win money. I’m delighted that today you’ve been able to put some hard cash back in your profit after the unfortunate “blip” of the last 2 weeks! All the best Bob Rothman PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website horseracingpro.brookscustomers.com is now RASCAL (in memory of McKeown!) To join us and benefit from full membership click here This privacy policy sets out how Horse Racing Pro uses and protects any information that you give Horse
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happen.Week 26 Profit £17,800.00
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Week 26 – £17,800.00 Profit!
£200,000 Profit in First 6 Months!
Monday
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Summary
Week 25 Profit £11,582.50
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Week 25 – £11,582.50 Profit!
Monday:
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PS This week’s password for the secure areas on our website
Posted in Results
Week 24 Profit £27,380.00
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£27,380.00 Profit! The Champagne corks
were popping in the Rothman household last week!
When you’re betting good horses you can
go from “drought” to “flood” in days!
Intelligent Variable staking is a Power Betting Tool
The one mistake stable’s make which
you must protect yourself from
Calculate the ability of an unraced horse
by comparing it to the horses it works with …
When you have a big advantage … bet big!
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Summary
Week 23 Loss £8,050.00
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Week 23
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