FREE DERBY TIPS NO 2
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EPSOM DERBY 2009 RUNNERS...
LOOK AT THE RUNNERS FOR THE DERBY. Notice anything?
Forget this, forget that, the winner is there. One of the names you look at is the name destined to become the winner on Saturday. This may sound obvious but it is so obvious for it to be pertinent.
Many races are an endless list of names that could or could not win. They could consist of plots. The owner could have travelled from Hong Kong to take part in a gamble. Another horse might be crying out for a particular trip, for a left-handed course, a tailwind or a warm zephyr of air from Mexico.
This is the Derby. There are no plots or concealed scripts in a Derby. The winner is there waiting to be unearthed. His form is public property; he carries no secrets.
There are thirteen possibilities as I write. Let’s see, without any equivocation, prevarication or hedging of bets, if we can eliminate the twelve that will fail and pinpoint the one that will win.
AGE OF AQUARIUS: Is the latest of a long line of horses from Ballydoyle to be working above himself. Apparently, had the race been run sometime over the weekend shrouded in the mists of Tipperary, this fellow would have emerged as the best of the Aidan O’ Brien contenders. His form and pedigree state there is not a stamina problem; however, one good piece of work does not inspire one to believe he can defy the formbook and win. Respected from a place point of view, but unlikely to win. X
BLACK BEAR ISLAND: Has no stamina issues and clawed his way into the reckoning when winning the Dante at York. He came from a long way back to beat a bunched field that day when discarded in favour of the runner-up by Johnny Murtagh. This tells us he is not a horse to over exert himself at home. But Murtagh had ridden him in races, so surely had some idea of his capabilities. There is one piece of form that the ‘told you so’ brigade will point to if he wins. He did beat Sea The Stars as a juvenile when they met in July. However, that was Sea The Stars first outing and Black Bear Island will surely struggle to confirm that now. His run in the Dante needs improving on if he is to win. X
CROWDED HOUSE: Was a much-hyped two-year-old from a yard long on talk and short on results. His juvenile form does not bear close scrutiny. Although visually pleasing when winning the Racing Post, he cannot win this on any one piece of form. Beating Jukebox Jury and Skanky Biscuit is not Group 1 form. He may not even run, but his participation is irrelevant as he cannot win whether he turns up or not. XXXXX
DEBUSSY: This progressive horse would probably have a better chance in the French Derby as there is a slight doubt about him staying this trip on pedigree. However, his able and highly competent trainer says he will stay so that should be good enough. A winner at Epsom, we know he handles the track. Subsequently beaten in a tactical affair at Chester – although he needs to improve on that – there are worse outsiders and he may surprise by finishing in the first four. He is a very likeable colt with a better chance than his odds suggest, but – no. XX
FAME AND GLORY: As his odds suggest, this is a horse with a serious chance. He wins the race on form as, using Mourayan as a yardstick, he actually beats Sea The Stars. Unlike the Guineas winner, there is no doubt about him seeing out the trip. A winner over ten furlongs, he can quicken on a sixpence and is bred to stay every yard of this distance and some. He did flash his tail when given a smack last time before going on to win the Group 2 Derringstown Stud Stakes, supplementing his win in the Ballysax. Unbeaten in four attempts, he gets the tick because put simply, if he fails to win he will finish second. There is just one horse capable of beating him. Only if Johnny Murtagh declines the ride (which is extremely unlikely) would one have to rethink. WINS THE RACES ###
GAN AMHRAS: Produced a personal best when a staying-on third in the English 2,000 Guineas. He is a tough little competitor, who will give it his best shot but he lacks the scope of some of these and although the extra yardeage is expected to suit, staying the trip is unlikely to win it for him. X
GOLDEN SWORD: Outstayed and outran his opponents in a strangely run affair at Chester that included Masterofthehorse and Debussy. That was his best piece of form by a long way. Prior to Chester, he had only an auction maiden at Fairyhouse to his name, so not only does it throw a question mark over his chance but also the two that finished behind him last time. XX
KITE WOOD: Was a decent two-year-old last season when trained by Michael Jarvis. Transferred to Godolphin, his participation in the Derby only serves as a reminder of the weakness in the Godolphin string. He was only fifth in the Dante, which is nowhere near good enough. The line that he needed the run and will improve fails to convince. He needs to improve and then improve again. Cannot win XXXX
MASTEROFTHEHORSE: Shuffled his way into second place at Chester when Golden Sword stole a march and sustained a searing gallop. It is likely to be close between him and Debussy again, but that does not seem to be good enough as this fellow is exposed at this level. A solitary win at Gowran Park does not inspire. XXX
MONTAFF: Will be having his fourth race in what is one of the hardest and most competitive events in the world. His three runs to date suggest he is seriously out of his depth. XXXXX
RIP VAN WINKLE: If looks and general profile alone won the Derby then Rip Van Winkle would be nap material for some. Has been given the classic Aidan O’Brien unhurried preparation and his staying on fourth in the Guineas means he is the horse Johhny Murtagh will deliberate long and hard over. This horse is class through and through but the serious doubt is his ability to stay the trip. Although by Galileo, he is all speed on the dam side and the fact his next two engagements are in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot over a mile, and the Coral Eclipse over ten furlongs, must reflect stable concern over the Derby distance. Taking a chance on him staying is only part of the equation as so far he has shown plenty of promise but not the substance required to make him a confident call. If he stays he could improve past Sea The Stars and be very dangerous, but it is too much to ask. X
SEA THE STARS: Showed a blistering turn of foot to win the 2,000 Guineas and has a fifty-fifty chance of staying the trip. Out of Urban Sea (dam of Galileo) the stamina doubt comes from his sire – Cape Cross. He looks sure to stay ten furlongs but the petrol gauge could be tilting heavily into the red beyond that. Even if he does stay, he still has to win. Like Rip Van Winkle, he is a quality contender. He has already won the first Classic and if he can transfer the speed we saw at Newmarket to Epsom, he will be hard to stop. But non-stayers often finish out of the money at Epsom so it is too big a chance to take. X
SOUTH EASTER: There is no doubt this twice-raced son of Galileo is moving in the right direction. He needs to move quite a bit further along the line to be considered, but he will stay and his trainer pulled off a similar feat with the lightly-raced Shaamit. Even so, this looks a hot Derby by any standards and it would be a major surprise were he to win. Like Debussy, could beat more than beat him, but, no. XX
So there it is. There is only one logical choice and that is to side with Fame And Glory. Back anything else and you are taking a chance, a gamble, playing a hunch, shoving it all on a lucky number, backing red over black.
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