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VISITORSHi. Feel free to browse our site where everything is on the open. However the actual slections we bet are obscurred to protect clients from having their accounts banned too quickly. However you can view skeltal summaries below which will give you an accurate feeling for the type of bets and horses we invest on.
Bookmakers read the web as well as anyone else and several Senior Traders have asked me to keep our actual slections private after having their accounts limited by bookmakers very quickly when the selections were made public.
Visitors summares are listed below ...
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Cobham Friday 26th Dec 11.04pm Week 29 - £20,740.00 Profit!"another stunning week!"
I hope you'll excuse me being so late with the report this week. Racing round this time of year is patchy and so I used the time to catch up with some contacts who'll be putting some great business our way next Flat Season.
And as we've said before winning weeks don't need much talking about. Collecting the cash and spending it seems to take up much of the focus!
And we are in the Festive Season ... so while we're celebrating the tremendous fortune we've enjoyed this last 6 months spare a thought for a couple of clients who joined about 8 weeks ago when we had those two losing weeks back to back. You can guess what they're doing now? Yep, they packed in pretty quick! And as a result missed out on the following 800 point profit surge! I do understand because if you start with a Betting Service and you don't win almost straight away very few people have the stomach to continue. I don't blame them really, there's plenty of undesirable tipping services out there (as well as some excellent ones too!) and so to "cut your losses" quickly probably protects against getting ripped off. But by the same token you're never going to find a good service unless you happened to join them on a winning week or month unless you invest some time.
last week started with a bang again. A terrific 20 Point bet on a nice 3/1 winner. Many of you spotted the same connection as ***** and consequently perhaps bet a bit more than usual? Great when it works but painful if it doesn't. The points are there for your guidance and of course you don't have to copy them exactly. I think you'll win more if you do but that is only opinion.
Then a nothing bet 2 pts on ********** at 28/1. Obviously 2 point bets rarely come up and might only win 1 in 10 or 20 bets. If you're getting 20/1 you still make a good profit but on this type of bet there are looooong losing runs. Hence it was such a tiny bet. Sadly it wasn't the 1 time in 20 that we collected but also no damage done.
****** was at the other end of the scale! A rare 30 point bet and when you consider we're having 15X the stake on this horse compared to ******** it's obvious I expect these horses to win a lot more frequently. ********** thinks the world of this horse being one of his best 3 Year old hurdlers. We not only enjoyed a fabulous win but we also had a great antepost bet for Cheltenham at 16/1! He's a low as 4/1 favourite with some firms now!
We were already having a fantastic week and it didn't stop there. Another 3 winners and an each way placed out of the next 5 bets. Your bookie must have wanted to close up shop every time you walked through the door! ******* at 2/1, ***** at 11/4 and *********** at 6/4 added another 50 points to the kitty.
By now the racing was getting pretty awful in the traditional Xmas lull and not only were bets few and far between they weren't running well either. No bets on Friday and then 2 loser on Saturday took a tiny bit of gloss off the week. But a 200 point week is great in any currency and you can't expect every day to be a winner. But with 5 Good winners out of 10 bets it was a great week and a terrific one to have the week before Xmas. Several clients aid it made their Xmas shopping a heck of a lot easier!
As I write this almost a week late it's fair to say the next week has been pretty drab and the racing has been dire. We're down, (but only 61 points by Friday) and so the net profit over the two week period is still 140 points or about 70 points a week. That's £7,000 at £100 per point stake and puts it into perspective don't you agree? There's not many jobs that pay £7,000 a week (£350,000 a year!) for about 20 minutes "work" a day!
In case I'm late with next week's report I wish you a very Happy New Year and a Prosperous and healthy 2009!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now ******
Cobham Boxing Day 10.08pm Week 29Profit £20,740.00The weekly discussion hasn;t been compltede yet due to the Festive interruptions. However it was another fantastic week's profits and you can check the detailed bets here
Cobham, 1147 pm Monday 15th Dec
Week 28 - Not Great"... but at least we finished with a great 13/2 winner Bob"As we had so few bets this week due to the appalling weather I'm adopting a slightly different format and discussing the weeks business in one long essay. With a sting in the tale! I hope you enjoy it!
Well it was bound to happen. We'd enjoyed stunning week after stunning week so we were due a bad one. But as losing weeks go this wasn't too bad. It always helps when the last bet of the day or the last bet of the week is a good winner doesn't it? You feel like you're making progress back.
And it was a heck of a cruel week. The weather was lousy and severely limited betting opportunities. Several meetings were abandoned and we missed some great potential winners especially when Cheltenham was abandoned on Saturday. I had two beauties lined up!
********** was our most costly and definitely the cruelest loser. We were mugged on Wednesday when he was absolutely cruising, but locked away on the rail and boxed in on all sides with nowhere to go. His jockey was virtually standing up in the stirrups looking around for the tiniest gap but he was in prison and there was no escape. He'd barely had a race and looked like he'd had won by a distance had he got out!
Connections were so upset they decided to stay over and take him to Great Leighs for another crack. They figured he'd hardly had a race so he wouldn't be too tired. And as he seemed a class above his opposition even below par he'd win. So the recovery mission plan was hatched and we backed him again. Once again he was a monster gamble from 100/30 down to 6/4 favourite! That takes some money to move a horse's odds like that. I think everyone in the country had seen how unlucky he was the night before and latched on to our gamble.
He broke poorly but rapidly made up the lost ground and turning for home was in a good position travelling strongly. I thought the gamble was landed. Suddenly he was treading water and lumbering around, he'd gone from racehorse to packhorse in a stride.
To be honest my immediate reaction was the previous race had taken more out of him that they'd thought. Add to that the long journey travelling over from Ireland on the ferry and the long drive down from Wales and you could see why he could easily be feeling knackered. I understood but felt a bit upset that connections hadn't spotted the sparkle may have gone out of his eye.
It was unjustified on my part because he came back sore and it turned out he'd pulled a muscle probably due to making up that lost ground too quickly. And maybe at the back of my mind a little voice says perhaps 2 races in 2 days made him more prone to injury. It was annoying because he would have won the first night when we had 7/1 about him. And the second night he would easily have been at least placed (he still finished 4th, just out of the frame). But both night he finished out of the frame. Two big 15 point each way bets down the drain and a massive 60 points in the hole. No chance this week being a winner now I thought.
If that wasn't bad enough we had a rare odds on bet which ran a shocker. *********** repeatedly jumped badly and in a jump race that ruins your chance. A good hurdler can take 2 lengths out of his field at each hurdle and over 2 miles you have 8 hurdles, that's 16 lengths! Not only did he give away ground at each hurdle but hitting them wastes valuable energy too.
On the bright side one client rang to say he doesn't bet odds on so he skipped that bet pretending he was the bookmaker! So he gained 30 points on the profit share system. Good luck to him I say (though I think it's a dangerous game!)
To be fair there's no rule that says you have to bet all my selections. I know many of my clients are extremely well informed themselves and have good contacts. So obviously if you have good information in a race that I may not be aware of you must make your own decision. Sometimes that might mean betting your own horse and not mine. Sometimes it might mean betting both. Sometimes you might strike lucky and land the forecast! This is a game of opinion and often mine may be no better than the next man. I like to think it's good enough to show me a profit over the year but I'm never too proud to listen to what someone else may know about another horse in the race. In this business it pays to be open minded.
And now I'd like to discuss our biggest loser and biggest winner in one breath. 40 Points win on ********* at 7/4 (punted down to an amazing 4/6!) and our final and only bet on Saturday 10 points each way on ********** at 13/2 (also a big gamble, punted down to 4/1)
By the way ********** should have won. But he didn't. He was the best horse in the race yet didn't get the prize he (and we) deserved. His jockey rode very confidently (too confidently for my liking). Sometimes I think that when connections tell a jockey "Lad, you're on a cert! He'll win" ... the jockey gets too confident and thinks he can win from any position and can end up playing too cool to be true, coming from the back of the field with a flying run and just being denied. It looks fantastic when you pull it off. But when my horse is fancied I like to see him in a good position RIGHT FROM THE START! As one of my handicappers always says to me
"Bob, you can give weight away, ... but you can't give a start"
Breaking slowly he was last and then held up. Half a mile from home he powerfully overtook his field all the way round the outside on a bend ( you and I both know that's the longest way to travel and means you have to race a good few lengths further) He struck the front a furlong from home and was then worried out of it by a jockey giving his horse a hard ride. Bah!
It was a huge swing because 40 points at 7/4 returns 110 points, yet we lost 40. A 150 point swing for the sake of a stronger ride! How the hell do we make a profit I sometimes wonder. It's like paying tax at 450% let alone 45%!
Now I know you liked **********! For two reasons. She was a BIG price and she always looked like winning! Her and the 2nd horse finished miles clear of the rest so you knew the win or 2nd was in the bag. It's great watching those sort of races isn't it?
Which was the better bet?
Now I have a question for you and I bet I know the answer you're going to give. The question is which bet was the better one? ********** or **********?
Bob are you crazy? I hear you say! One horse won, one lost, obviously the winner is the better bet!
Hey, not so fast ... it's not that simple.
I see my job as twofold. As a kind of coach (if you will let me be so bold) ... to put before you bets which I think represent value and look to be long term profitable. So that you may choose to participate if it suits you and hopefully make yourself some decent money along the way.
But also as a friend. To tell you the truth as I see it. No matter whether you will like it or not. Because friends can tell you the truth. If someone had BO for example you'd like to think one of their friends would tell them! So I'm sharing this even though I don't expect you'll like the conclusion! Pretend both horses won to make the mental comparison easier
To make it easier to compare the bets may we "pretend" that ********** won? The question is the same. Is your answer? I suspect you still prefer the ********** bet. I'll be honest, I enjoy bets like ********** more. Because like you I prefer to risk a little to win a lot. But I know that ********** is the better bet. By that I mean the most profitable.
You may be curious as to why I'm even asking this when the "winning" ********** bet wins just 70 points for a risk of 40 and ********** wins 81.25 for half the risk!
How the heck can the first bet be more profitable than the other?!
The reason is we must look not at the profit. But the profitability. Ie the long term profit one bet will earn compared to the other.
You may already be aware that the SP (Starting Price) is a very good predictor of a horse's winning chance. It's what stock market investors call "efficient" So an even money chance wins close to 50% of the time. A 4/6 chance wins almost 60% of the time and a 6/4 chance just under 40%. 4/1 chances win just under 20% and so on.
Bookmakers have a percentage equivalent for every price. guess what it is for evens? 50% and ...
4/6 is 60% 6/4 is 40% 4/1 is 20%
If you'd like the formula to calculate the percentage equivalent for any price drop me an email. I'll send you a table with them all pre-calculated too.
Ok so using the SP as a guide we can estimate how many times we are "entitled" to win the race. Because if you could run the same race over and over again you'd find that horses like ********** would win around 60% of the time. And 4/1 horses like ********** will win around 20%
So let's pretend we run each race 10 times. And our selection wins the number of races indicated by his/her SP.
We'll bet £100 a time to make the maths easy. And for this example we bet WIN only
********** Horse A
Final SP = 4/1, therefore likely to win 20% of the time ie 2 races out of 10. We took odds of 13/2
So out of 10 bets
· We win twice, £650 a time. That's PLUS £1,300 · We lose 8 times, That's MINUS -£ 800 · ------ · Net Profit Equals £500 · ------
Now we bet ten times, £100 a time so our total investment is 10 x £100 or £1,000. We made £500 profit on this £1,000 so we made 50%
Therefore the expected return from ********** is 50%
Incidentally that's a fabulous return especially when it only takes 6 minutes!
********** Horse B
Final SP = 4/6, therefore likely to win 60% of the time ie 6 races out of 10. We took odds of 7/4
So out of 10 bets
· We win 6 times, £175 a time. That's PLUS £1,050 · We lose 4 times, That's MINUS -£ 400 · ------ · Net Profit Equals £650 · ------
Now we bet ten times, £100 a time so our total investment is 10 x £100 or £1,000. We made £650 profit on this £1,000 so we made 65%
Therefore the expected return from ********** is 65%!
That's an amazing return!
Which is the better bet?
Based on the above assumptions the long term profit from bets like **********s is 65% whereas bets like ********** would return 50%. That makes ********** a 30% better bet!
I knew you wouldn't like the answer! Everyone loves betting big priced horses! But there can be gold on those short ones too!
Caveat
It's only fair to say that we did disregard the fact that ********** was an each way bet. And as you know I believe betting each way adds something to the value of your bet. But there's no denying that on the above figures and betting win only, you'd win more betting **********s then you would betting *************s!
Moral of the Story
There's two important lessons in that bit of fun.
As I finish this late on Monday night we'd had another fabulous turnaround and we've already won back all last week's losses with a nice bit on top! ************ pulled us a massive 72 points profit and got the week off to a scorching start. Don't you just love the highs and lows of this game! It really does keep you alive eh?
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now *******
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Cobham, 0.24 am Monday 8th Dec
Week 27 - £20,360.00 Profit!16/1 Double Landed!
Another unbelievable week! £20,360 profit is outrageous!We've had another stunning week and yet I'm going to be a bit of a party pooper here. For a very good reason. Your protection.
Ok we've had a great week let's not deny it. In fact the last four weeks have been stunning. Now as you know I do expect to win over a year that's true (although this is gambling so nothing's certain!) But it's not realistic to expect to win every week. Certainly not on this level. I don't want you thinking this is the norm and then start betting too big so that a few losers knock you out. As sure as night follows day there will be some losing spells too. Our long term success in this business depends as much on our ability to stay the course ... to complete the marathon so as to speak. It isn't a 100 yard sprint. It's a 200 mile slog!
Ok that's the boring bit out of the way but if I may I'd like to just put our performance into context. Today base rate is 2%. And apart from short term "suck-you-in" short-term offers from banks and building societies the long term return on savings can be as low as 1%!
You can make a fortune at 1%!1% on your money in a bank for a year is peanuts. But the beauty of any form of trading (and I regard betting on horses as trading just the same as betting on shares or currencies) is that you can take a small edge and because you trade over and over again that small edge gets multiplied. What do I mean?
Well imagine you have a you place £20,000 worth of bets in a week and you make a 1% profit. That's £200. Not a lot. But you might never have bet more than £1,000 and do that 50 times a year and you make 50 x 1% or 50% or £10,000! Now that's a serious return.
Now if you placed an ad in the paper offering an investment with a 50% return you'd have an army of people wanting to bite your hand off. I don't know any bank that offers that sort of return. I'm not even sure if Warren Buffet does? and to be fair the larger the sums of money you're investing the harder it is to achieve a good return. the weight of your money starts acting against you. Warren Buffet invests millions if not billions. So a 10% return in a year would be very good for him.
Where am I leading in all this?
What % return did we make last week?To be a Professional Punter you do have to start thinking in terms of percentages. We tend to avoid races where the bookmakers profit is high ... a big percentage. For example in a 20 runner handicap they may bet to 20% profit whereas in a 8 runner maiden it could be 10%. It's easier to win when you cherry pick better races to bet in from a punter's point of view.
But I have a question for you. What percentage profit do you think we made last week?
To save you the math's I've done it for you so let's run through it quickly. We invested 208 points and the return was 411.6. That's a 203.6 point profit which is ... wait for it ... a staggering 98% profit on turnover!This is a staggering figure and it was a wonderful week. But as your friend I have to advise you it is unsustainable. We will NOT average 98% over a year. No way in Hell!
In my second year's punting I had a golden spell and won £440,000 on a turnover of around £2m. I remember some of the comments in newspapers where the journalists were positively skeptical ... they'd say begrudgingly say something like ... if Mr Rothman can make 25% on turnover he must be one of the most successful punters of all time. And they'd make a big stress on the if!
Well between you and me it was true. 25% is enormous and so big that a lot of people don't believe it's possible. (maybe they don't work hard enough studying eh?!)And that was when it was worth an awful lot of money. Back in 1986! Sadly I have not been able to sustain that level of winnings because it becomes impossible to get on in any size! Many clients are reporting back that they too are getting restricted by the bookies. In one case a gentleman wrote to say the bookies had happily taken his money for years when he lost but now he was winning they were running scared and limiting his bets to schoolboy size!
So let's enjoy these golden weeks and hope we get plenty more of them but please do not base your future betting strategy or size of bet on these great weeks. Because if you do you will bet too big and if you bet too big you'll go skint!
If we only average 1% a week we'll do very nicely thank you. So if we have a week with a small profit ... and that profit is more than 1% ... I'd like you to still think "Yippee!" Because it's a heck of a lot better than most people are doing in property or business at the moment that's for sure!
I was very lucky when I started betting in that I made the acquaintance of another Professional Punter with some 20/30 years experience and he guided me well. I always remember one phrase that Angus said to me.
"Bob, the winning days take care of themselves. It's the losing days you have to protect yourself from"
He had another phrase which I'll never forget and (sadly) has been burned deep into my heart on many occasions. it's a painful experience I hope you'll avoid. If you do it'll be a miracle because most Professionals will experience this at least once if not many, many times before it finally sinks in.
"Be very careful after your biggest winning day. So often the biggest losing day follows!"
Now why the heck is that? How dare the betting gods make such a stupid rule up? Surely when you win big you bet bigger and win even more? Ohhhhhhhhhhhh no.
What tends to happen after big wins is we get cocky. We think we know it all and that we walk on water. So we start lumping on Big time. The trouble is that you and I both know that we only win maybe 30% of the time. That leaves 70% for losing bets! You can easily go a week, or two or more without backing a winner. And if you've lumped on say 20% of your bank ... you can only go 5 losing bets before you're wiped out. That's why I recommend a bank of at least 1,000 points, It won't protect you from a really bad losing run. But it'll sure help get through most of them!
Suppose you unearthed a marvelous system that won 90% of the time. 9 winners out of 10! (You really would be walking on water!) You'd bet winner after winner after winner! But ... if you got cocky and decided the system was so great that you bet everything ... sure as eggs are eggs, sooner or later, that 1 loser in 10 will come along and wipe you out!
Ok that's enough about being sensible. I'm only hammering the point home because I want you to be able to bet winners for a very long time and so I'm imploring you to be sensible and cautious when I know it probably goes against part of your nature. It's pretty obvious you must have an element of risk taking in your personality otherwise you wouldn't have the guts to even place a bet! Not just because it's great if you can make money from something as crazy as betting horses! But also because it's FUN winning too! I don't know about you but when I've had a good week I walk a bit taller ... with a spring in my step and an even bigger smile on my face! I become a nicer person to know!
And it doesn't matter if you win £100 or £1,000. If you win you feel good. so let's focus on staying in the game so we have a chance to keep winning for a long time. The last time we had two bad weeks I lost 2 clients who'd been with me since the beginning. They should have had enough in reserve to see them through. Sadly they didn't and they had to leave the club though I hope they may rejoin later. But what's even sadder is that since those two bad weeks ( 5 and 6 weeks ago) when we lost 200 points ( £20,000 at £100 per point) ... we've won 771 points!! (£77,122,50 at £100 per point stakes)
That's more than THREE times the losses. They would have got it all back and be sitting pretty with even more profit in the bank. Yet those two guys have missed out just because they bet too big during the bad weeks. Please, please bet carefully!
A quick chat about the week now, though it was so good we hardly need to say anything! The good days look after themselves!
Monday:******** A 2 mile race with our horse looking like he was going to win or be second for sure, only for it end in a bunch finish with 4 horses separated by less than a length ... and we finished 4th. It was an unbelievable 24 point kick in the goolies! To be frank if you have a result like that at any time in a week you'd have to expect to end up losing that week. 24 points is an awful lot to make up. Tuesday:An awful days racing. Poor quality animals who are not a good betting medium. ********* missed the break and never faced the kickback which about summed it up for the day.
Wednesday:I was beginning to wish I'd taken the week off and gone abroad! Maybe I was getting stale and missing something? I usually work 5 weeks and then take a few days break because I find I win more doing that. 5 weeks is a long time to keep up the intense focus needed for racing and if you're a bit stale you seem to miss the "golden" calls. A lot of research on peak performance shows it drops off after a few weeks (which is maybe why some horses only replicate peak form if they race around 14 days later)
******* was a another horse certain to win or be second (he and the winner were 20 lengths clear coming to the second last) so I was feeling quite comfortable with our each way bet knowing we couldn't lose ... when he tipped up and fell!! Ouch. That's twice in 3 days and even though it was only a 5 point each way bet it was another 10 points down the can and an almost impossible position to recover from. When you're losing it would be a heck of a lot cheaper to go away and not bet! 34 points on two unlucky each way losers was going to make this a bad week I was sure.
Thursday:More rubbish racing and I could only find two bets from all the runners. Most of these horses you and I could run faster than!
********* was a welcome winner and confirmed the gallop lines with ***** who we've enjoyed two good wins on and who now races off 65.My spies had spotted ************ galloping well with horses of his caliber and as she was only rated 58 we knew she had a great chance. Heavily gambled she travelled like a dream just behind the leaders and powered clear for an easy win. About time!
Friday:What a great day! ********* stormed home in the first. And then ********** landed an enormous gamble very easily indeed. 9/2 winners with a good size stake soon repair the bank and we stormed up to an amazing 31 point profit by the end of the day. What a comeback!
SaturdayA magnificent day and several clients enjoyed even bigger wins than advised by using their initiative.
Our first bet *********** didn't run till late in the evening but was a facile winner and another huge gamble. He'd been working brilliantly.
Then we had one of my favourite bets of all time the infamous each way double. The power of this bet is that if the horse both place you still make a small profit. But when they both win as they did on Saturday the return is simply mouthwatering!
I gave out the bet as a 5 point each way double on ******* at 9/2 and ********* at 2/1 and intended giving you a 8-10 point each way bet on ******* as well. I was watching the markets and it looked like he'd drift out to 5/1 so I was holding back to get you the best odds on the single. I wanted to give you the double earlier as they take a bit longer to get on. Then one of my men as Sandown rang on the other line and started running through the rest of the ******* runners plus what he'd heard about other horses at the track.
I must be getting stale because frankly I got sidetracked and suddenly the race was almost off. ******* had drifted out to almost 11/2 on the exchanges so I was surprised he hadn't shown 5/1 yet. And then they were called into line and I realised it was too late to give you the second bet.
You know the result, ***** won and you should have been enjoying a big win already. I was now praying ********* would do the decent thing for you and win so you'd have a good return as it's really annoying if you have a double and one wins and the other doesn't. Luckily perhaps because I had missed the time off for the *********** race several clients called to say they'd "guessed" I might have missed something else off too and backed Fabula on its own as well as in the double!! A double payday! Obviously I didn't text out the single bet on ********* so I cannot put it on the report but well done to you if you backed him singly as well. It was still a great win!
*********** absolutely destroyed his field ad it was almost embarrassing how easy he won. But I'm never embarrassed to collect the winnings! And then in the evening ************ was another huge gamble and looked like he was on jet fuel, an easy winner.
A marvelous day and several clients texted or emailed to say they'd had a fantastic day! Incidentally I love to hear about all your good wins so feel free to email me and let me know about them at ***********************
I won't always be able to reply promptly so if you need a quick reply it's best to write to the girls at ***************** as I only log in every day or so and it depends if I've finished my studying as racing always has to come first as you'll understand.
Sunday - No betsA great week! Hope you celebrated, bought something for yourself or a friend or made a difference to someone's life. I love week's like that! Wonder why the bookies don't??????!
All the best
Bob Rothman PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now ********* |
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VisitorsHere is the Non Members Summary of the week. You can peruse this and decide if our service is for you
Please click Summary Racing Results and the latest results profits with names of selections removed
Week 26 Profit account now available (discussion to be loaded later)
Week 25 Profit account now available
Cobham, 10.09 pm Monday 24th NovWeek 25 - £11,582.50 Profit!
Another solid weeks profits! Ten grand plus! In a week. That's half a million pounds a year! Amazing really. Can you now see how it really is possible to earn a fabulous 6 figure income ... simply betting horses for a living!
Of course that sounds easy and any professional knows it isn't. There is an enormous amount of work that goes on behind the behind the scenes by the various team members who help us out. Most Professionals I know put in at least 10/12 hours a day solid ... and would like to do more!
... and then there's the sharp end. Getting the bets on. It's not as easy as people first imagine. In fact I bet most of your friends have no idea what a sweat it is to try and get the best price. Rushing to the bookies or trying to log onto your internet account before the odds evaporate like Scotch Mist as the yellow-belly bookies dive for cover!
I know how hard you must work getting trying to get the best odds and applaud you for your efforts ... many punters think it's just a question of ringing up your bookies or slapping a grand down on the counter and the bet's on. I wish! I know how frustrating it is to miss the best prices too. Because you know that over a period of time you'll back plenty of winners. And every time the bookies cheat you of a point they are effectively stealing cash out of your pocket.
It infuriates me how they get away with taking any bet off a mug punter who loses all the time ... but as soon as you start backing "warm" horses they don't want to know you. I've been rushing around for 20 years opening up accounts and betting under disguises so I know it all too well. If you lose, the bookies welcome you with open arms and a big smile. Then when you start winning ... or even looking like you'll win (because you're backing the horses they don't want you to!) Ok, that's enough moaning about bookmakers cutting odds too quickly. Because unusually the odds for one of our biggest bets this week, ******* at 5/1 ... were there all day long! ... and you could still get 5/1 at the off. The bookies took a serious caning and we cleaned up nicely! Ok so how did the week go?
Monday:Great start again. £3,500 in the bin, a good days "work"!
Tuesday:Frustrating. ********* was run out of the places and made a 12 point hole in the tank. A so-so day.
Wednesday:Horrible. ********* blew up after looking like the winner. ******** ran a stinker and connections were mystified. They interviewed the trainer on TV afterwards and he had no clue. Maybe it was the ground. Maybe someone kicked him in the goollies before the race? who knows. He was punted into the ground as if he was a cert .. and ran a shocker. Very odd. Just one of those events in racing you have to take on the chin. Rumble of Thunder ran 3rd but two non runners meant the places were reduced to 2 so he was a loser.
**** *** landed a lovely gamble but the same trainers ********* ran too free and didn't handle the bend. ******** ran green and will improve. He was disappointing, they expected a win as you could tell from the huge gamble on him.
Thursday:Two nice winners. A big bet on *** *** *** landed with consummate ease. And another easy 4/1 winner when ******* bolted in on his chase debut. He'd been jumping brilliantly at home. ******** and ******** were both expensive 4ths, just missing the frame and costing us a valuable 22 points.
Friday:How did ********** not win? Coolly letting the front runner get a 20 length lead he ran him down and took it up looking sure to win. Then got caught close home. Maybe if he'd made his effort earlier and taken it up sooner he would have won easily? It didn't really matter because we cleaned out the bookies big time with ******* a big 20 point each way bet.
I know we've discussed this before but one new client asked me a question I must get asked every week so if I may I'd like to just touch on it very briefly ...
"Does an each way bet mean you are less confident?"
NO!! ... absolutely not.
As you know I love betting each way. I'll bet all sorts of crazy prices each way because I believe we win more by doing so. Of course you don't have to copy me. But I think you will win more (and lose less) if you do.
For the record if I was only allowed to bet ******* win only for example (as some bookies insist on the racetrack) then my bet would have been a 10 or 12 point win. It's precisely because of the insurance of the place bet that allows you to bet bigger! Often being able to bet each way make a horse a STRONGER bet, not weaker as we discussed before.
SaturdayThe hardest day's racing of the week because so many owners want to win on a day they can go to the races with friends. They're all trying! Yet we still managed to put another 21 points or £2,160 on the scoreboard. Let's face it, if you could make £2,000 every Saturday I'm betting you'd be very happy!
Our two biggest bets won and 4 small bets lost. Yet we still made a good profit. That because we bet in proportion to the winning chance of the horse and the value on the bet not some numpty, level-stake betting system which needs no brains to operate and reduces your profit potential.
Sunday- No bets.
SummaryOver 25 weeks we've made £213,897 at £100 per point stakes. that's an average of an average of £9,299.87 per week. So I guess you would say we had an above average week! Of course if I was offered a job at £9,000 a week I think I'd have to seriously consider it even though I love betting horses. Because there is always the chance you can lose, with a job you get paid (for a while anyway) whether you do a good job or not so good. No luxuries like that in betting! We have to be excellent all the time to even stand a chance of winning.
Many clients have been with me since the launch in June and know there are ups and downs. I know it seems so easy when we are winning. But please bet sensibly, stake in proportion to your bank and perhaps you'd like to note the guidance I give in the points suggested. It does seem like we always win in the end I know. But we have had two spells of two losing weeks ... and so mathematically I guess it's just as likely to have one spell of 4 weeks instead! Ouch!
Gambling is a volatile business and the rewards can be immense. But there are ALWAYS losing spells and anyone who tells you otherwise is an idiot or a con man. I still remember when I started betting back in 1987. Winning £440,000 in my second year was fantastic! ... but ... wait for this ... In that year ... I had TWO losing months. Hard to believe isn't it? Trust me I was dumbstruck. But it happens and just as day follows night and summer follows winter you have to pick yourself up, dust yourself off and carry on.
That's if you can.
Because if you lose your tank the game is over. And I'm mentioning this because I lost two clients after our bad spell 2 weeks ago and that makes me really sad. Because if they'd been able to stick it out ... they would now have won almost twice as much as they lost over those two weeks ... and that's not even accounting for the massive cushion of profits already built up before.
That's why your first priority must be always to make sure your bets are small enough that you can withstand a losing run. To win you have to be able to stay in the game. Over 25 weeks I've shown you it is possible to win ... and win pretty big. Over an enormous number of bets. So clearly no fluke. But I won't pretend it's easy and missing a winner or the odds will cost. The good news is the evidence shows if we keep doing what we've always done ... we should always win eventually.
Great to have you on board because it is so much more enjoyable when I know you've won as well. Somehow winning together enhances the experience. I guess winning alone is a bit like being Scrooge at Xmas! So thanks for being part of the team and making it so much more enjoyable for me ...
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now *******
£27,380.00 Profit! The Champagne corkswere popping in the Rothman household last week!
What a week! We started off with a wonderful near maximum bet winner, with 40 points on ******. In one swoop we'd wiped out all losses from the previous week with a profit on top.
... and then followed that winner up with two more handsome wins at 100/30 and 7/1! It was stunning day and we'd turned round the previous dry spell with a fantastic £16,800 winning day, one of our best!
When you're betting good horses you cango from "drought" to "flood" in days!
That's one of the most amazing aspects of gambling for a living. You can have a dry spell and be scratching your head wondering when the next winner will ever come! Frankly it's hard not to lose confidence. We all do and the challenge is that if you lose your confidence your betting goes to pieces. You may start having too much on big priced horses trying to win it all back in one hit. And equally badly there a tendency to scale back big bets on short priced horses. If you just been losing it's easy to get "gun-shy" and become scared of losing more. So instead of a nice 20 point win on a 6/4 chance you end up having a poxy 4pt win because you can't stomach a 20 point loss.
Somehow it seems easier to have a few 3 and 4 pt ew bets on big priced horses hoping to fluke a 20 or 30 point win. It doesn't work and you'll only ever show a profit in the long run if you stick to a sound staking plan. You know my views on level stake staking. It sucks and it's for amateur professionals or people who don't have the time to study and analyse races properly.
The only time it might be appropriate to use level stakes is if you are blindly following a system. Systems don't differentiate between good, great and stunning bets. They are all the same to a system. But if you get good information, know something about form and ability ratings, can read a race and understand basic principles of handicapping and perhaps have software to help you get it all done quicker then the more complex variable staking methods can work wonders for you. Of course in your case I do it for you and just deliver the end result ie a bet of "x" points at odds of "y". But there's nothing stopping you doing it yourself and comparing your deliberations to mine. I'm certainly not infallible and there's plenty of race handicappers who can read races a lot better than I can. (That's why I employ a couple to help me out!)
Intelligent Variable staking is a Power Betting Tool
Apart from our information I believe our staking plan delivers a unique advantage and maximises our profits. It's made fantastic profits for me for years, but I will admit it takes a heck of a lot of work. Instead of the one-size-fits-all simplistic approach of level stakes, our bets are tailor made for each race. Each race has to be studied carefully and the form and messages for all the horse in the race taken into context. And this leads nicely on to a subject I'd like to discuss very briefly. Messages from stables that can lead you astray. Let me give you a hypothetical example to illustrate...
The one mistake stable's make whichyou must protect yourself from
I don't know if you've ever subscribed to other tipping services but I suspect you may have. Or picked up juicy tips from your own stable contacts. Maybe you know an owner? Maybe you are an owner?
The biggest mistake most stables make in my opinion is not properly evaluating their horses ability IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RACE.
For example a small stable has a horse they call "Superstar"
Superstar has never run before so they're not sure how good he is. But he destroys all their other horses on the gallops. All the stable lads love him. They've been saving up their weekly wages to back it when it runs. And why not? After all they've seen with their own eyes how easily it beats everything at home.
The problem is the stable is a small stable and don't have any really good horses to test its mettle against. They have say 20 horses and they are all rated between 40 and 60.
Let's say the second best horse in the yard is called Seaside Donkey, and he's rated 60. Superstar beats Seaside Donkey by 3 lengths when they gallop at home and the other horses in the stable are some way behind these two.
Now the work looks great to anyone watching. But looking at it logically, unemotionally, all you can really say is Superstar is 3 lengths better than Seaside Donkey ... which means he's 3 lengths better than a 60 rated horse.
Over 5 furlongs a length is general accepted to be worth 3lbs. So Superstar is 3 lengths x 3lbs or 9lbs superior to Seaside Donkey. Ie Superstar is a 69 horse)
Ok so now comes the day when Superstar goes to the races.
They enter it in a maiden at Newmarket even though the powerful Newmarket yards have runners there too. But they figure their best horse should go and run in a decent race to show how good it is!
In this race most of the horses are no-hopers but there are 3 possible dark horses who are all unraced but hail from big powerful stables. Somehow you've managed find out what the word on the street is ... and that word is that none of the Newmarket horses are "fancied"
Why not?
Well each of the powerful stables tell you their horse is "rubbish" because he finishes last in his work group. Horses often work in groups of 3 so you might sensibly ask the question "What are the other horses rated in the work group?" before you take this rumour as gospel and fall into the trap that so many people are going to today.
Stable 1 tell you the work group consists of a slow Horse called Plodder and two 90 rated horses.
Stable 2 tell you their work group consist of 2 95 horses and a slow horse called Sloth.
Stable 3's work group consists of one slow horse called Dawdler and two 110 horses.
Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler finish last in their groups and are each beaten say 5 lengths by their quicker companions. That's a long way to be beaten and that's why the lads from these stables think these horses aren't very good. Calculate the ability of an unraced horseby comparing it to the horses it works with ...
Plodder is approximately a 75 horse, as he works 5 lengths behind two 90 rated horse. 5 lengths x 3lbs equals 15 lbs. Deduct 15lbs from the 90 rating of his companions and you arrive at a figure of around 75 for his ability ie 90-15=75.
Sloth is approximately an 80 horse (15lbs behind two 95 horses, 95-15=80) and Dawdler is a 95 horse (15lbs inferior to two 100 horses, 110-15 =95)
In the powerful stables' work groups the horses finishing last in the work groups look poor in comparison to their illustrious stable companions. But they can be different class to the best horse in a small stable.
So if you blindly follow stable messages you'll think the race consists of three slow horses with little chance (Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler, actual ability levels 75, 80 and 95) and one good horse called Superstar (actual ability 69)
Rate horses by their ability either on the racetrack or on home gallops ... not on racecourse rumours
Superstar could end up being a hot favourite because of (incorrect) racecourse rumours about how brilliant he is whereas Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler may become attractive betting propositions at bigger odds and will probably even drift in the betting. Horses like this can become stunning each way bets!
If the race follows gallops work at home the 3 "slow" horses will finish 1st 2nd and 3rd! ... with Dawdler winning the race, Sloth coming 2nd and Plodder 3rd. Poor old Superstar will finish 4th at best!
Many punters will burn their fingers and scratch their heads. But in reality if you'd been able to analsye the horses' abilities correctly that's exactly where you'd expect them all to finish.
So "messages" have to be taken in context. Every horse's ability has to be evaluated in the context of the race it is running in today. Sometimes a horse will be a great bet. sometimes awful. That's why you have to adjust the stakes to suit the situation
When you have a big advantage ... bet big!
Anyway that's basically why we had a near maximum bet on ****** ...
Now this report is late (live on Wednesday night) partly because it takes me such a long time to compose not being a writer! .. and of course studying racing is my top priority so I can only start writing late in the evening when night racing has finished and I've completed my initial study of the following days cards. I'm considering putting up the Profit Statement on the Website on Monday mornings without a discussion and then adding the discussion later in the week if I have I have time. I'd appreciate your feedback as to which part is the most valuable to you?
And now a very brief chat about the weeks racing. The great thing about a good winning week is it doesn't need much explanation. If the horse wins we're all happy! Enough said. I did discuss one bet in detail our 40 pointer on Monday only because I thought it illustrated a point you might find useful when you're evaluating any other information you may acquire on your racing travels!
MondayFabulous start. A near maximum bet winner and two others at decent odds. 3 Great winners on the day at 7/1, 100/30 and 9/4. A day to savor.
TuesdayOne bet, one 5/1 winner! It doesn't get much better than that!
WednesdayTricky day. Two 2nds a 3rd and a 4th made it tough though ********* was an easy 7/2 winner for us and was also heavily gambled. A slight setback day but we were still £13,750 up at the end of it so little damage done.
ThursdayA quiet day. ******** was 2nd after a big gamble and then a small each way bet at 10/1 didn't make the frame.
FridayAnother big priced horses day! ****** was a decent 12 Points ew winner at 11/2, ****** won at 5/2 and ******** an each way bet at 9/1 went very close finishing 2nd. A good day and profits now £19,070 on the week. I was hoping we'd hit the £20,000 barrier but with only Saturday (the toughest day's racing) to look forward to it was no foregone conclusion.
SaturdayThe hardest day's racing of the week because so many owners want to win on a day they can go to the races with friends. They're all trying!
We did very well with 7 bets of which 5 won or were placed pushing the profits over £20,000 for the week!
Sunday- A stunning 7/1 winner! ... Won in a canter and was very impressive indeed. Unusually for one of our horses we took under the odds! The bet was a decent 8 Points ew at 13/2 and he actually won at 7/1! Great day though. No complaints!
SummaryA stunning week with a profit of £27,380 to £100 per point stakes. Just imagine if you could bet like that for a year ... you'd make well over a million!! Lovely thought eh?
Profits have finally crept through the £200,000 barrier to £202,314.50. That's terrific work for 24 weeks betting! It's been a marvelous 1st 6 months for the Service and as much as I'd love to keep winning at this rate I d think it's been especially good. My target for the year was to win an extra £10,000 for you at £10 per point ie £100,000 at my usual £100 per point stakes. We've surpassed that 400% and hopefully we'll continue to add to it. I doubt the next 6 months will be quite so spectacular but you never know! That's the beauty of racing!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now ******
Cobham, 2.46pm Monday
Awesome week! £17,255.00 Profit!SummaryThis is the time of year when our betting on the Flat starts taking 2nd place to the Jumps. Many Flat horses are now losing their summer coat and going over the top making results more erratic. We had more bets over the sticks this week and the week's results clearly demonstrated that the New Jump Season is now starting to pay its way. Let's hope it continues as well as it's started!
6 Bets 4 winners!We had 6 bets over the sticks with 4 good winners at fantastic prices. We usually have an advantage at the start of a new season because not everyone knows which horses are fit before they've run. That means you can get better odds as we did last week.
****** was pretty stunning as an example. It was hard to believe you could bet a horse at 9/1 that was trading at odds-on in running well before the race was over ... and at a very short price for most of the time ... he was travelling so well you could call him the winner from a long long way out! ****** at 11/2, ****** at 11/4 and ****** on Sunday at 13/2 were all great big priced winners too so despite a substandard Saturday with several Flat horses running well below expectations and just the one winner we ended up with a handsome 172 points profit on the week! £17,255.00 to £100 per point stakes. Awesome!
Monday:Nice start to the week with 2 winners 2 seconds. But how cruel was ******? He had to run wide most of the race yet was still well ahead in the last furlong and in the words of the Racing Post was "mown down last strides!" It was carnage for the "Betting In Running" Professionals who were betting him at 1/5 in the last furlong! Ouch! At least we were on each way at big odds around 11/2 and made a small profit anyway. They lost their shirts! It was one of those races were afterwards you're left wondering "how the heck did he get beat from there?"
Tuesday:****** ran too free early on yet was still close up and only run out of second close home. Worth keeping an eye on.
****** battled for the early lead but as a result blew up in the last furlong after looking like he had the race at his mercy. He needs to be ridden with more restraint.
Wednesday:A Fabulous Day! Two great winners. ****** was the cream! I love backing 9/1 winners don't you? Even if you missed that and only got 8/1 you had to be feeling pretty smug when he was an enormous gamble just before the off and went off the heavily backed 4/1 second favourite. He'd been schooling brilliantly and I guess when the bookies were hit for 6 they may have finally twigged it was a proper "job". The race was named in honour of ****** and the bookmakers eventually got the clue that ****** might just have laid it out to win this and dived for cover like headless chickens as they so often do when faced with professional money!!
****** was an effortless winner making it a great day.
Thursday:Profits on the week zoomed up to over £10,000! These are the weeks I love! Our Jump contacts proved they are in excellent form when ****** was well backed and landed a lovely 11/2 winner for us. ****** won a decent bet and the other two bets were both placed. I know they can't all win but I don't mind if they go close. This was a really good day!
Friday:A poor day's racing and looked like we'd have no bets. Then we got a late message for one which was heavily backed yet ran badly. No excuses and odd because our late messages usually run great.
SaturdayOn the plus side our sole bet over the Jumps won well. ****** was another ****** runner that was having his seasonal debut and proved he was as fit as our spies reported, winning easily and being heavily backed to do so.
The Flat horses were disappointing. ****** won the race last year and had been targeted at it yet ran no race. Afterwards they agreed she gone over the top and the race had probably come a week too late. It is hard to get horses to peak for a race and usually you have a 2 week window where you can keep them at peak fitness before you have to let them down and then build up again.
Our reports on ****** proved to be accurate as we'd heard he was working better than the original favourite (******) at home (both trained by same stable) he beat him in the race but neither were good enough and it looks like their horses have also gone over the top after a long hard season.
****** travelled like the best horse but found disappointingly little when ****** asked him to quicken. They blamed the ground but I'd like to reserve judgment. He's such a good horse at home he wins his gallops on the bridle so they didn't know how good he was. It's possible he's a "bridle" horse who finds little for pressure and because he's used to winning easily at home has never had to develop his battling qualities. Rather like humans who have life way too easy and are over-spoilt by rich parents. They may be talented but often are losers in life! Time will tell.
SundayWhat a great way to end the week! ****** was a stunning 13/2 winner for us. Sorry we missed the early 7/1 because I wanted to study the race for a bit longer after I got the message. After Saturday I was treading a bit carefully.
He was a great winner and it would have been too cruel if he'd got beaten like ******. 18 lengths clear at the second last when he hit it, and then blundered at the last as well! He had enough left to still win but it would have been even more authoritive had he not messed up the last two hurdles! He probably went too far ahead too early but was the best horse at the weights so why not!
All in all a Great Week. 172 Points profit is fantastic for a years betting let alone a week! No complaints even though ****** getting caught close home cost us another 65 points! Can't be too greedy I guess! But I do love beating the bookies and giving them a good kick in the pants don't you?!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website is ****** |
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