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Here is the Non Members Summary of the week. You can peruse this and decide if our service is for you
Please click Summary Racing Results and the latest results profits with names of selections removed
Week 26 Profit account now available (discussion to be loaded later)
Week 25 Profit account now available
Cobham, 10.09 pm Monday 24th Nov
Week 25 - £11,582.50 Profit!
Another solid weeks profits! Ten grand plus! In a week. That's half a million pounds a year! Amazing really. Can you now see how it really is possible to earn a fabulous 6 figure income ... simply betting horses for a living!
Of course that sounds easy and any professional knows it isn't. There is an enormous amount of work that goes on behind the behind the scenes by the various team members who help us out. Most Professionals I know put in at least 10/12 hours a day solid ... and would like to do more!
... and then there's the sharp end. Getting the bets on. It's not as easy as people first imagine. In fact I bet most of your friends have no idea what a sweat it is to try and get the best price. Rushing to the bookies or trying to log onto your internet account before the odds evaporate like Scotch Mist as the yellow-belly bookies dive for cover!
I know how hard you must work getting trying to get the best odds and applaud you for your efforts ... many punters think it's just a question of ringing up your bookies or slapping a grand down on the counter and the bet's on. I wish! I know how frustrating it is to miss the best prices too. Because you know that over a period of time you'll back plenty of winners. And every time the bookies cheat you of a point they are effectively stealing cash out of your pocket.
It infuriates me how they get away with taking any bet off a mug punter who loses all the time ... but as soon as you start backing "warm" horses they don't want to know you. I've been rushing around for 20 years opening up accounts and betting under disguises so I know it all too well. If you lose, the bookies welcome you with open arms and a big smile. Then when you start winning ... or even looking like you'll win (because you're backing the horses they don't want you to!)
Ok, that's enough moaning about bookmakers cutting odds too quickly. Because unusually the odds for one of our biggest bets this week, ******* at 5/1 ... were there all day long! ... and you could still get 5/1 at the off. The bookies took a serious caning and we cleaned up nicely! Ok so how did the week go?
Monday:
Great start again. £3,500 in the bin, a good days "work"!
Tuesday:
Frustrating. ********* was run out of the places and made a 12 point hole in the tank. A so-so day.
Wednesday:
Horrible. ********* blew up after looking like the winner. ******** ran a stinker and connections were mystified. They interviewed the trainer on TV afterwards and he had no clue. Maybe it was the ground. Maybe someone kicked him in the goollies before the race? who knows. He was punted into the ground as if he was a cert .. and ran a shocker. Very odd. Just one of those events in racing you have to take on the chin. Rumble of Thunder ran 3rd but two non runners meant the places were reduced to 2 so he was a loser.
**** *** landed a lovely gamble but the same trainers ********* ran too free and didn't handle the bend. ******** ran green and will improve. He was disappointing, they expected a win as you could tell from the huge gamble on him.
Thursday:
Two nice winners. A big bet on *** *** *** landed with consummate ease. And another easy 4/1 winner when ******* bolted in on his chase debut. He'd been jumping brilliantly at home. ******** and ******** were both expensive 4ths, just missing the frame and costing us a valuable 22 points.
Friday:
How did ********** not win? Coolly letting the front runner get a 20 length lead he ran him down and took it up looking sure to win. Then got caught close home. Maybe if he'd made his effort earlier and taken it up sooner he would have won easily? It didn't really matter because we cleaned out the bookies big time with ******* a big 20 point each way bet.
I know we've discussed this before but one new client asked me a question I must get asked every week so if I may I'd like to just touch on it very briefly ...
"Does an each way bet mean you are less confident?"
NO!! ... absolutely not.
As you know I love betting each way. I'll bet all sorts of crazy prices each way because I believe we win more by doing so. Of course you don't have to copy me. But I think you will win more (and lose less) if you do.
For the record if I was only allowed to bet ******* win only for example (as some bookies insist on the racetrack) then my bet would have been a 10 or 12 point win. It's precisely because of the insurance of the place bet that allows you to bet bigger! Often being able to bet each way make a horse a STRONGER bet, not weaker as we discussed before.
Saturday
The hardest day's racing of the week because so many owners want to win on a day they can go to the races with friends. They're all trying! Yet we still managed to put another 21 points or £2,160 on the scoreboard. Let's face it, if you could make £2,000 every Saturday I'm betting you'd be very happy!
Our two biggest bets won and 4 small bets lost. Yet we still made a good profit. That because we bet in proportion to the winning chance of the horse and the value on the bet not some numpty, level-stake betting system which needs no brains to operate and reduces your profit potential.
Sunday
- No bets.
Summary
Over 25 weeks we've made £213,897 at £100 per point stakes. that's an average of an average of £9,299.87 per week. So I guess you would say we had an above average week! Of course if I was offered a job at £9,000 a week I think I'd have to seriously consider it even though I love betting horses. Because there is always the chance you can lose, with a job you get paid (for a while anyway) whether you do a good job or not so good. No luxuries like that in betting! We have to be excellent all the time to even stand a chance of winning.
Many clients have been with me since the launch in June and know there are ups and downs. I know it seems so easy when we are winning. But please bet sensibly, stake in proportion to your bank and perhaps you'd like to note the guidance I give in the points suggested. It does seem like we always win in the end I know. But we have had two spells of two losing weeks ... and so mathematically I guess it's just as likely to have one spell of 4 weeks instead! Ouch!
Gambling is a volatile business and the rewards can be immense. But there are ALWAYS losing spells and anyone who tells you otherwise is an idiot or a con man. I still remember when I started betting back in 1987. Winning £440,000 in my second year was fantastic! ... but ... wait for this ... In that year ... I had TWO losing months. Hard to believe isn't it? Trust me I was dumbstruck. But it happens and just as day follows night and summer follows winter you have to pick yourself up, dust yourself off and carry on.
That's if you can.
Because if you lose your tank the game is over. And I'm mentioning this because I lost two clients after our bad spell 2 weeks ago and that makes me really sad. Because if they'd been able to stick it out ... they would now have won almost twice as much as they lost over those two weeks ... and that's not even accounting for the massive cushion of profits already built up before.
That's why your first priority must be always to make sure your bets are small enough that you can withstand a losing run. To win you have to be able to stay in the game. Over 25 weeks I've shown you it is possible to win ... and win pretty big. Over an enormous number of bets. So clearly no fluke. But I won't pretend it's easy and missing a winner or the odds will cost. The good news is the evidence shows if we keep doing what we've always done ... we should always win eventually.
Great to have you on board because it is so much more enjoyable when I know you've won as well. Somehow winning together enhances the experience. I guess winning alone is a bit like being Scrooge at Xmas! So thanks for being part of the team and making it so much more enjoyable for me ...
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now *******
£27,380.00 Profit! The Champagne corks
were popping in the Rothman household last week!
What a week! We started off with a wonderful near maximum bet winner, with 40 points on ******. In one swoop we'd wiped out all losses from the previous week with a profit on top.
... and then followed that winner up with two more handsome wins at 100/30 and 7/1! It was stunning day and we'd turned round the previous dry spell with a fantastic £16,800 winning day, one of our best!
When you're betting good horses you can
go from "drought" to "flood" in days!
That's one of the most amazing aspects of gambling for a living. You can have a dry spell and be scratching your head wondering when the next winner will ever come! Frankly it's hard not to lose confidence. We all do and the challenge is that if you lose your confidence your betting goes to pieces. You may start having too much on big priced horses trying to win it all back in one hit. And equally badly there a tendency to scale back big bets on short priced horses. If you just been losing it's easy to get "gun-shy" and become scared of losing more. So instead of a nice 20 point win on a 6/4 chance you end up having a poxy 4pt win because you can't stomach a 20 point loss.
Somehow it seems easier to have a few 3 and 4 pt ew bets on big priced horses hoping to fluke a 20 or 30 point win. It doesn't work and you'll only ever show a profit in the long run if you stick to a sound staking plan. You know my views on level stake staking. It sucks and it's for amateur professionals or people who don't have the time to study and analyse races properly.
The only time it might be appropriate to use level stakes is if you are blindly following a system. Systems don't differentiate between good, great and stunning bets. They are all the same to a system. But if you get good information, know something about form and ability ratings, can read a race and understand basic principles of handicapping and perhaps have software to help you get it all done quicker then the more complex variable staking methods can work wonders for you. Of course in your case I do it for you and just deliver the end result ie a bet of "x" points at odds of "y". But there's nothing stopping you doing it yourself and comparing your deliberations to mine. I'm certainly not infallible and there's plenty of race handicappers who can read races a lot better than I can. (That's why I employ a couple to help me out!)
Intelligent Variable staking is a Power Betting Tool
Apart from our information I believe our staking plan delivers a unique advantage and maximises our profits. It's made fantastic profits for me for years, but I will admit it takes a heck of a lot of work. Instead of the one-size-fits-all simplistic approach of level stakes, our bets are tailor made for each race. Each race has to be studied carefully and the form and messages for all the horse in the race taken into context. And this leads nicely on to a subject I'd like to discuss very briefly. Messages from stables that can lead you astray. Let me give you a hypothetical example to illustrate...
The one mistake stable's make which
you must protect yourself from
I don't know if you've ever subscribed to other tipping services but I suspect you may have. Or picked up juicy tips from your own stable contacts. Maybe you know an owner? Maybe you are an owner?
The biggest mistake most stables make in my opinion is not properly evaluating their horses ability IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RACE.
For example a small stable has a horse they call "Superstar"
Superstar has never run before so they're not sure how good he is. But he destroys all their other horses on the gallops. All the stable lads love him. They've been saving up their weekly wages to back it when it runs. And why not? After all they've seen with their own eyes how easily it beats everything at home.
The problem is the stable is a small stable and don't have any really good horses to test its mettle against. They have say 20 horses and they are all rated between 40 and 60.
Let's say the second best horse in the yard is called Seaside Donkey, and he's rated 60. Superstar beats Seaside Donkey by 3 lengths when they gallop at home and the other horses in the stable are some way behind these two.
Now the work looks great to anyone watching. But looking at it logically, unemotionally, all you can really say is Superstar is 3 lengths better than Seaside Donkey ... which means he's 3 lengths better than a 60 rated horse.
Over 5 furlongs a length is general accepted to be worth 3lbs. So Superstar is 3 lengths x 3lbs or 9lbs superior to Seaside Donkey. Ie Superstar is a 69 horse)
Ok so now comes the day when Superstar goes to the races.
They enter it in a maiden at Newmarket even though the powerful Newmarket yards have runners there too. But they figure their best horse should go and run in a decent race to show how good it is!
In this race most of the horses are no-hopers but there are 3 possible dark horses who are all unraced but hail from big powerful stables. Somehow you've managed find out what the word on the street is ... and that word is that none of the Newmarket horses are "fancied"
Why not?
Well each of the powerful stables tell you their horse is "rubbish" because he finishes last in his work group. Horses often work in groups of 3 so you might sensibly ask the question "What are the other horses rated in the work group?" before you take this rumour as gospel and fall into the trap that so many people are going to today.
Stable 1 tell you the work group consists of a slow Horse called Plodder and two 90 rated horses.
Stable 2 tell you their work group consist of 2 95 horses and a slow horse called Sloth.
Stable 3's work group consists of one slow horse called Dawdler and two 110 horses.
Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler finish last in their groups and are each beaten say 5 lengths by their quicker companions. That's a long way to be beaten and that's why the lads from these stables think these horses aren't very good.
Calculate the ability of an unraced horse
by comparing it to the horses it works with ...
Plodder is approximately a 75 horse, as he works 5 lengths behind two 90 rated horse. 5 lengths x 3lbs equals 15 lbs. Deduct 15lbs from the 90 rating of his companions and you arrive at a figure of around 75 for his ability ie 90-15=75.
Sloth is approximately an 80 horse (15lbs behind two 95 horses, 95-15=80) and Dawdler is a 95 horse (15lbs inferior to two 100 horses, 110-15 =95)
In the powerful stables' work groups the horses finishing last in the work groups look poor in comparison to their illustrious stable companions. But they can be different class to the best horse in a small stable.
So if you blindly follow stable messages you'll think the race consists of three slow horses with little chance (Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler, actual ability levels 75, 80 and 95) and one good horse called Superstar (actual ability 69)
Rate horses by their ability either on the racetrack or on home gallops ... not on racecourse rumours
Superstar could end up being a hot favourite because of (incorrect) racecourse rumours about how brilliant he is whereas Plodder, Sloth and Dawdler may become attractive betting propositions at bigger odds and will probably even drift in the betting. Horses like this can become stunning each way bets!
If the race follows gallops work at home the 3 "slow" horses will finish 1st 2nd and 3rd! ... with Dawdler winning the race, Sloth coming 2nd and Plodder 3rd. Poor old Superstar will finish 4th at best!
Many punters will burn their fingers and scratch their heads. But in reality if you'd been able to analsye the horses' abilities correctly that's exactly where you'd expect them all to finish.
So "messages" have to be taken in context. Every horse's ability has to be evaluated in the context of the race it is running in today. Sometimes a horse will be a great bet. sometimes awful. That's why you have to adjust the stakes to suit the situation
When you have a big advantage ... bet big!
Anyway that's basically why we had a near maximum bet on ****** ...
- he was rated 56 and my spies had spotted him working well with a horse rated in the high 70's!
- So with a potential 20lbs in hand I made him a genuine odds on chance (ie his winning chance was above 50%).
- ... and the final key to the puzzle ... the odds available were generous in the context of his winning chance
Now this report is late (live on Wednesday night) partly because it takes me such a long time to compose not being a writer! .. and of course studying racing is my top priority so I can only start writing late in the evening when night racing has finished and I've completed my initial study of the following days cards. I'm considering putting up the Profit Statement on the Website on Monday mornings without a discussion and then adding the discussion later in the week if I have I have time. I'd appreciate your feedback as to which part is the most valuable to you?
And now a very brief chat about the weeks racing. The great thing about a good winning week is it doesn't need much explanation. If the horse wins we're all happy! Enough said. I did discuss one bet in detail our 40 pointer on Monday only because I thought it illustrated a point you might find useful when you're evaluating any other information you may acquire on your racing travels!
Monday
Fabulous start. A near maximum bet winner and two others at decent odds. 3 Great winners on the day at 7/1, 100/30 and 9/4. A day to savor.
Tuesday
One bet, one 5/1 winner! It doesn't get much better than that!
Wednesday
Tricky day. Two 2nds a 3rd and a 4th made it tough though ********* was an easy 7/2 winner for us and was also heavily gambled. A slight setback day but we were still £13,750 up at the end of it so little damage done.
Thursday
A quiet day. ******** was 2nd after a big gamble and then a small each way bet at 10/1 didn't make the frame.
Friday
Another big priced horses day! ****** was a decent 12 Points ew winner at 11/2, ****** won at 5/2 and ******** an each way bet at 9/1 went very close finishing 2nd. A good day and profits now £19,070 on the week. I was hoping we'd hit the £20,000 barrier but with only Saturday (the toughest day's racing) to look forward to it was no foregone conclusion.
Saturday
The hardest day's racing of the week because so many owners want to win on a day they can go to the races with friends. They're all trying!
We did very well with 7 bets of which 5 won or were placed pushing the profits over £20,000 for the week!
Sunday
- A stunning 7/1 winner! ... Won in a canter and was very impressive indeed. Unusually for one of our horses we took under the odds! The bet was a decent 8 Points ew at 13/2 and he actually won at 7/1! Great day though. No complaints!
Summary
A stunning week with a profit of £27,380 to £100 per point stakes. Just imagine if you could bet like that for a year ... you'd make well over a million!! Lovely thought eh?
Profits have finally crept through the £200,000 barrier to £202,314.50. That's terrific work for 24 weeks betting! It's been a marvelous 1st 6 months for the Service and as much as I'd love to keep winning at this rate I d think it's been especially good. My target for the year was to win an extra £10,000 for you at £10 per point ie £100,000 at my usual £100 per point stakes. We've surpassed that 400% and hopefully we'll continue to add to it. I doubt the next 6 months will be quite so spectacular but you never know! That's the beauty of racing!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now ******
Cobham, 2.46pm Monday
Awesome week! £17,255.00 Profit!
Summary
This is the time of year when our betting on the Flat starts taking 2nd place to the Jumps. Many Flat horses are now losing their summer coat and going over the top making results more erratic. We had more bets over the sticks this week and the week's results clearly demonstrated that the New Jump Season is now starting to pay its way. Let's hope it continues as well as it's started!
6 Bets 4 winners!
We had 6 bets over the sticks with 4 good winners at fantastic prices. We usually have an advantage at the start of a new season because not everyone knows which horses are fit before they've run. That means you can get better odds as we did last week.
****** was pretty stunning as an example. It was hard to believe you could bet a horse at 9/1 that was trading at odds-on in running well before the race was over ... and at a very short price for most of the time ... he was travelling so well you could call him the winner from a long long way out! ****** at 11/2, ****** at 11/4 and ****** on Sunday at 13/2 were all great big priced winners too so despite a substandard Saturday with several Flat horses running well below expectations and just the one winner we ended up with a handsome 172 points profit on the week! £17,255.00 to £100 per point stakes. Awesome!
Monday:
Nice start to the week with 2 winners 2 seconds. But how cruel was ******? He had to run wide most of the race yet was still well ahead in the last furlong and in the words of the Racing Post was "mown down last strides!" It was carnage for the "Betting In Running" Professionals who were betting him at 1/5 in the last furlong! Ouch! At least we were on each way at big odds around 11/2 and made a small profit anyway. They lost their shirts! It was one of those races were afterwards you're left wondering "how the heck did he get beat from there?"
Tuesday:
****** ran too free early on yet was still close up and only run out of second close home. Worth keeping an eye on.
****** battled for the early lead but as a result blew up in the last furlong after looking like he had the race at his mercy. He needs to be ridden with more restraint.
Wednesday:
A Fabulous Day! Two great winners. ****** was the cream! I love backing 9/1 winners don't you? Even if you missed that and only got 8/1 you had to be feeling pretty smug when he was an enormous gamble just before the off and went off the heavily backed 4/1 second favourite. He'd been schooling brilliantly and I guess when the bookies were hit for 6 they may have finally twigged it was a proper "job". The race was named in honour of ****** and the bookmakers eventually got the clue that ****** might just have laid it out to win this and dived for cover like headless chickens as they so often do when faced with professional money!!
****** was an effortless winner making it a great day.
Thursday:
Profits on the week zoomed up to over £10,000! These are the weeks I love! Our Jump contacts proved they are in excellent form when ****** was well backed and landed a lovely 11/2 winner for us. ****** won a decent bet and the other two bets were both placed. I know they can't all win but I don't mind if they go close. This was a really good day!
Friday:
A poor day's racing and looked like we'd have no bets. Then we got a late message for one which was heavily backed yet ran badly. No excuses and odd because our late messages usually run great.
Saturday
On the plus side our sole bet over the Jumps won well. ****** was another ****** runner that was having his seasonal debut and proved he was as fit as our spies reported, winning easily and being heavily backed to do so.
The Flat horses were disappointing. ****** won the race last year and had been targeted at it yet ran no race. Afterwards they agreed she gone over the top and the race had probably come a week too late. It is hard to get horses to peak for a race and usually you have a 2 week window where you can keep them at peak fitness before you have to let them down and then build up again.
Our reports on ****** proved to be accurate as we'd heard he was working better than the original favourite (******) at home (both trained by same stable) he beat him in the race but neither were good enough and it looks like their horses have also gone over the top after a long hard season.
****** travelled like the best horse but found disappointingly little when ****** asked him to quicken. They blamed the ground but I'd like to reserve judgment. He's such a good horse at home he wins his gallops on the bridle so they didn't know how good he was. It's possible he's a "bridle" horse who finds little for pressure and because he's used to winning easily at home has never had to develop his battling qualities. Rather like humans who have life way too easy and are over-spoilt by rich parents. They may be talented but often are losers in life! Time will tell.
Sunday
What a great way to end the week! ****** was a stunning 13/2 winner for us. Sorry we missed the early 7/1 because I wanted to study the race for a bit longer after I got the message. After Saturday I was treading a bit carefully.
He was a great winner and it would have been too cruel if he'd got beaten like ******. 18 lengths clear at the second last when he hit it, and then blundered at the last as well! He had enough left to still win but it would have been even more authoritive had he not messed up the last two hurdles! He probably went too far ahead too early but was the best horse at the weights so why not!
All in all a Great Week. 172 Points profit is fantastic for a years betting let alone a week! No complaints even though ****** getting caught close home cost us another 65 points! Can't be too greedy I guess! But I do love beating the bookies and giving them a good kick in the pants don't you?!
All the best
Bob Rothman
PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website is ****** |
