Pennies to Pounds
Wednedsay Tips March 10
CHELTENHAM RACING TIPS:
1.30: After the success on Tuesday of Witicha Lineman, Kornati Kid has to be the call here.
2.05: Mad Max has already beaten Karabak and although this track may not be ideal for such a big horse, he is impossible to overlook. He looks as if he is crying out for this trip and is a horse with a great deal of quality. The message for Karabak is strong , so it may pay to perm the two of them.
2.40: What used to be the Sun Alliance looks as if it could be between three: Cooldine - who will not lack for support after the success of Forpadyderplasterer in the Arkle - Gone To Lunch and What A Friend who has a high cruising speed and is my idea of the winner.
4.00: The handicaps are hard to solve here and it is my view that perming more than one runner can be a waste. Either you fancy one horse or they are best left alone. In this I feel that Pierrot Lunaire is grossly overpriced. Narrowly beaten by Binocular at Aintree last year, he looks a spring horse. After a pipe opener when second to Lough Derg last time, he is allowed 6lbs for two lengths. Assuming he will come on for that, he looks reasonably treated in a race that may not concern that many.
Perming those horses suggested in a Lucky 15 means 47 bets, or £47 for £1 units. That is today's suggestion. Obviously the stake can be altered to suit your pocket.
Pennies to Pounds
Tuesday Tips March 10
CHELTENHAM RACING TIPS
Referring back to yesterday's article, for those of you persuaded that perm betting in multiple bets is the way to go at this type of meeting, here with my suggestions for today:
I consider the first four races offer the best betting opportunities:
1.30: I am prepared to take a chance against Cousin Vinny, who has travelled badly from Ireland and may not be the force he is cracked up to be anyway. For those that disagree, I can report that at least up to Monday, there was a very strong word for him. My two against the field are Go Native and Kempes. Both will relish soft ground.
2.00: I am sticking with the Irish in the second and nominating Golden Silver and Follow The Plan.
2.40: This may seem unwise but I am making Millennium Royal my sole selection in this. My reasons are not that I consider him a banker, but that I have reservations about the fancied Wichita Lineman who is half the price of the selection, and unlike Millennium Royal has not proved he is anything other than what we see over fences. His hurdling form is far superior to anything achieved over the bigger obstacles. I have doubts over the worth of the Racing Post Chase form and therefore am prepared to oppose Possol. Cailin Alainn's jumping record here is off-putting, whilst Patsy Hall's price seems to have more to do with his training.
3.20: In the belief the old guard have had their day, I have taken three against the field: Binocular, Osana and Celestial Halo. From a betting point of view, clearly, a win by either Celestial Halo or Osana, both of whom look overpriced, would be desirable, but Binocular has to be included.
By selecting 2x2 x1x3, we have the following options. They make 23 doubles and 28 trebles - a total of 51 bets. Forget the accumulator, that is another twelve bets and obviously represents an unlikely outcome. We will win plenty if all four win anyway.
Alternatively, including the insurance that the singles provide, this perm makes 71 Lucky Fifteens. Remember you get double the odds on the singles and you get paid more than once for each winner as it will figure in more than one bet.
More conservatively, you could just do 23 doubles. One double, the right two horses, will pay a nice dividend.
Remember, this is a proposed staking plan only; you can substitute your selections if you prefer. I am as confident as I can be that I should have the winner of the Champion Hurdle, but the other races are tough.
Further details on my proposed betting appears on Bush Telegraph.
