Horseracing Tips -October Archive
SATURDAY 18th Oct
NEWMARKET:
2.05: Cat Junior is a suggestion. This trip will suit and the stable is in sparkling form.
2.35: Rip Van Winkle's form needs radically improving upon to justify a ludicrous morning price. Huntdown and Delegator are seen as the possible alternatives, whilst Soul City should not be dismissed. This is a hard race to call despite the fact there is great value on offer due to the incorrect pricing of the favourite.
3.10: New Approach has had a hard season. I would not back him as his last run suggested he may be feeling the effects of being on the go since the Guineas. But I would not back against him as this is a sub-standard Group 1.
3.50: LIBERATE makes plenty of appeal in a race that may not be as hard to solve as the numbers suggest. First time cheekpieces will help him to concentrate and he is reported to be fit and in fine fettle.
5.00: UNSUNG HEROINE is a filly peaking at the right time of year after an excellent second in the St Leger. I know it is dangerous backing fillies at this time of year (demonstrated by Spacious yesterday), but I will make her the exception today on the assumption her sensible trainer would not risk her if he felt she was not able to do herself justice. Not forgetting she had the Oaks winner behind her at Doncaster on what was only her third run, her price of 9/4 appears generous.
CHELTENHAM: 3.25: Two-and-a-half miles is ideal for Bible Lord who spent too much of last year racing over the wrong trip. I would have taken a chance with him today but for his trainer's negative comments in the Post. He wants watching though as he is capable of lifting this sort of prize when right.
FRIDAY 17th October
NEWMARKET:
3.45: SPACIOUS may not be a clever selection but she looks a solid prospect dropped in grade to Listed Class and stepped up to ten furlongs. On a day full of question marks, she ticks all the boxes. Two big-priced selections are available on Pennies To Pounds at Newmarket.
CHELTENHAM:
There are some decent types on show today and whilst it still seems early to be parting with cash, those thinking Ring The Boss faces an open goal in the 2.55 should be aware that Razor Royale is held in high regard by his stable and expected to make his mark over fences this year. He may give the favourite plenty to do.
THURSDAY 16th October:
The Racing Post headline tells it all: "Thursday Thriller" - a rematch between two old crocks - War of Attrition and Kicking King. Neither has won for two years and both are surely shadows of their former selves. Good luck to both but what odds one fails to finish?
NOTTINGHAM TIPS
1.40: Big Bound will be a warm order here.
2.40: Racing from a mark of 68, Johnny Rook is thrown in on his debut run at Newbury behind Orizaba. The trouble is it is not a run he has capitalised on. But he has been off the track for nearly three months that suggests something may have been ailing him. If it has been fixed then he could easily win this. Any market interest should be noted.
BRIGHTON TIPS
2.30: Roman Glory ought to win this but his third at Newmarket is not as good as it looks. It may be good enough but...
4.30: Sendreni is no nap but looks worth a small interest on the day. In a race that is little better than a seller, he has the form to go close and the booking of Richard Hughes looks significant.
MONDAY 6th October:
WINDSOR TIPS
3.00: CHEVIOT looks to have a big chance here, particularly as his Newbury form has been boosted by the run of Neshri at Newmarket. The drop in trip will also help - should win.
WARWICK TIPS
2.30: BOUVARDIA looks well-treated, particularly in the light of Tiger Eye's win at Newmarket.
4.20: OLYMPIC CITY probably has an easier task here than when beaten in a very competitve event at Kempton last time. Has won on soft and could reward a modest investment at a big price.
PONTEFRACT TIPS
4.10: DIAMOND YAS is surely better than claiming class and should be too good at this level.
SUNDAY 5th October:
LONGCHAMP TIPS
It is my contention that unless you have a strong opinion, it is no good approaching a meeting like this concentrating on the obvious. There are easier ways of backing 5/2 winners than attempting it here!
1.15: The first of five Group 1s on a star-studded day by any standards. We have to assume not everything will go to plan today, particularly with the likelihood of rain. Marchand D' Or and Fleeting Spirit are the two form horses here but there are obvious question marks. Although a winner over five, this does not seem to be the ideal trip for Marchand D' Or. On the other hand, this race seems tailor-made for Fleeting Spirit, but her well-documented interruption is a worry. The less talented but equally less complicated pair: National Colour and Equiano (would not want if soft but not right in the Nunthorpe) are seen as viable alternatives. You have to climb off the fence in races like this and I don't think Bordlerlescott will win.
1.50: Again may be the real deal but her form does not exactly scream at you. She had Sugar Free (well beaten at Newmarket on Friday) behind her last time and looks short enough. Elusive Wave has proved herself in today's conditions (would not any deterioration in the ground though) and along with Copperbeech looks the best of the home team. We are dealing with fillies and with no real solid form lines, a turn up is possible here.
2.25: Mastercraftsman looks the real two-year-old deal. Given time, I feel stable mate Rip Van Winkle may turn out to be the better but, taking the Prix Morny won by Bushranger as representing the best two-year-old form, Mastercraftsman, who beat him at the Curragh, ought to win the Criterium. Stamina and ground is not a problem and he does look bombproof on all known form. Milanais may prove best of he home team but they ought to be playing for places.
3.00: On a day likely to be dominated by fillies, we come to the Prix de l' Opera. Back Lush Lashes if you wish, but she makes no appeal at the price. The ground may be against her and she comes here on the back of a long hard season. I am taking a chance with top juvenile, Proviso who looked to have lost her way in the early part of the year. However, a gradual restoration of her form has been signposted and she is a good filly on her day. It should not be forgotten she was favourite when runner-up in last year's Fillies Mile at Ascot, a race in which many felt she was unlucky. l know the stable jockey choses Treat Gently in preference but she lacks a killer turn of foot and I believe it is entirley possible he has made a mistake.
3.40: So we come to one of the great showpieces of the year. Apart from dismissing Youmzain, I have little to add. We all know Zarkava has looked brilliant but having a bet here is not compulsory. For a three-year-old filly to win this means she has to be exceptional. Zarkava is exceptional but, taking on beefy colts for the first time, with the possiblity existing that she may forfeit ground at the start and that rain may turn the surface against her, she cannot be a bet. I wish her well. This is not a race to guess in inless you are backing a double-figure priced horse and I cannot see a suitable candidate. For me it is perm any one of the first four in he betting, in which case I may as well be in Las Vegas!
Bon Chance and Viva Le France!!
FRIDAY 3rd Oct
NEWMARKET tIPS
The ground is crucial today. Rain is forecast for the east of the country which could well embrace Newmarket. Running through he card...
1.00: Evasive the one to beat but faces some likely unraced types and his third at Kempton, although promising, needs improving upon.
1.30: Snoqualmie Girl the form horse. Beat colts at Salisbury and one of them, On Your Way, ran well enough in the Royal Lodge to make her the filly to shoot at. Not too many dangers. Ave looks the most obvious improver.
2.05: A drop of rain may improve the chances of Bankable but he has won on this sort of surface and his main adversary, Eagle Mountain, may find this a bit sharp.
2.40: A tough race to solve. Serious Attitude is fancied and the ground will sut. Pursuit Of Glory has to be respected as does Sugar Free who has mixed it with colts. By Oasis Dream, she has run on firm but may prefer a drop of juice.
3.10: Bushranger represents the top colts' formline at present. By Danetime and winner of the Morny on soft, as it stands this ground could find him out. HUNTDOWN was enormously impressive at Newbury two weeks ago. By Elusive Quality [same sire as Raven's Pass] he will be all the better on the current ground. This is a big step up for him but he has impressed from day one and looks a top class contender. In the absence of rain he is worth backing. But obviously we have to wait until race time. There is nothing between Prolific, Gallagher and Sayif on the book. It would appear they are playing for places.
4.20: If he can put his tumble at Chester behind him, Speed Gifted has the necessary form.
THURSDAY 2nd October:
NEWMARKET TIPS
2.00: Alhaque finished an excellent second to North East Corner at the last meeting and should win this maiden. It will take a well above average newcomer to beat him but that looks sure to be reflected in the price.
3.45: This is the day when we discover if the highly promising Wingwalker can realise his potential. Not a betting proposition at the price but he should be up to the task. North East Corner [form on show in the opener but may have been advantaged by his draw on a day when high numbers held the call] and Control Zone are intersting contenders but need to raise their respective games.
GOODWOOD TIPS
2.10: HISTORY LESSON is my idea of the best best of the day. This looks an average contest and his second to Control Zone (form that has been franked) looks better than Noverre To Go's second to subsequently beaten Diddums.
WEDNESDAY 1st October:
Plenty of racing today but only one serious candidate for me and we have to wait until the 8.50 at KEMPTON, where FALCATIV looks a good thing. This is a horse we picked up on two runs ago when he finished a tenderly-handled fifth at Doncaster behind Sortita. Apprentice-ridden that day and again at Sandown last time when having his first run in a handicap, he gets the services of Dane O'Neill tonight. Rated only 73, a reproduction of his last run should be good enough in this company; but it seems reasonable to assume he is capable of bettering it. That is the good news. I fear the bad will be the price. Anything bigger than 6/4 looks a bonus to me.
Those looking for a couple of more speculative wagers should take a peep at our sister service, PENNIES TO POUNDS, but those with a nervous disposition should look away... |
