After a suggestion from one of the Senior Traders I have adopted this format so that public visitors to the site can only access skeletal details and NOT the actual selections we bet on.

This is because bookmakers can run a query on their betting history to identify who bet which horse. If we give them the horses names then they could identify you more easily and may restrict the size of bets you are allowed faster than they normally would. I hope you are ok with the minor inconvenience of using a password in order to protect your privacy.

Passwords will be sent by text each week

Regards

Bob

December 2008 Profit to date £19,275.00 Detailed Horse Racing Results

Cobham Friday 26th Dec 11.04pm

Week 29 - £20,740.00 Profit!

"another stunning week!"

I hope you'll excuse me being so late with the report this week. Racing round this time of year is patchy and so I used the time to catch up with some contacts who'll be putting some great business our way next Flat Season.

And as we've said before winning weeks don't need much talking about. Collecting the cash and spending it seems to take up much of the focus!

And we are in the Festive Season ... so while we're celebrating the tremendous fortune we've enjoyed this last 6 months spare a thought for a couple of clients who joined about 8 weeks ago when we had those two losing weeks back to back. You can guess what they're doing now? Yep, they packed in pretty quick! And as a result missed out on the following 800 point profit surge! I do understand because if you start with a Betting Service and you don't win almost straight away very few people have the stomach to continue. I don't blame them really, there's plenty of undesirable tipping services out there (as well as some excellent ones too!) and so to "cut your losses" quickly probably protects against getting ripped off. But by the same token you're never going to find a good service unless you happened to join them on a winning week or month unless you invest some time.

last week started with a bang again. A terrific 20 Point bet on a nice 3/1 winner. Many of you spotted the same connection as ***** and consequently perhaps bet a bit more than usual? Great when it works but painful if it doesn't. The points are there for your guidance and of course you don't have to copy them exactly. I think you'll win more if you do but that is only opinion.

Then a nothing bet 2 pts on ********** at 28/1. Obviously 2 point bets rarely come up and might only win 1 in 10 or 20 bets. If you're getting 20/1 you still make a good profit but on this type of bet there are looooong losing runs. Hence it was such a tiny bet. Sadly it wasn't the 1 time in 20 that we collected but also no damage done.

****** was at the other end of the scale! A rare 30 point bet and when you consider we're having 15X the stake on this horse compared to ******** it's obvious I expect these horses to win a lot more frequently. ********** thinks the world of this horse being one of his best 3 Year old hurdlers. We not only enjoyed a fabulous win but we also had a great antepost bet for Cheltenham at 16/1! He's a low as 4/1 favourite with some firms now!

We were already having a fantastic week and it didn't stop there. Another 3 winners and an each way placed out of the next 5 bets. Your bookie must have wanted to close up shop every time you walked through the door! ******* at 2/1, ***** at 11/4 and *********** at 6/4 added another 50 points to the kitty.

By now the racing was getting pretty awful in the traditional Xmas lull and not only were bets few and far between they weren't running well either. No bets on Friday and then 2 loser on Saturday took a tiny bit of gloss off the week. But a 200 point week is great in any currency and you can't expect every day to be a winner. But with 5 Good winners out of 10 bets it was a great week and a terrific one to have the week before Xmas. Several clients aid it made their Xmas shopping a heck of a lot easier!

As I write this almost a week late it's fair to say the next week has been pretty drab and the racing has been dire. We're down, (but only 61 points by Friday) and so the net profit over the two week period is still 140 points or about 70 points a week. That's £7,000 at £100 per point stake and puts it into perspective don't you agree? There's not many jobs that pay £7,000 a week (£350,000 a year!) for about 20 minutes "work" a day!

In case I'm late with next week's report I wish you a very Happy New Year and a Prosperous and healthy 2009!

All the best

Bob Rothman

PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now ******

Cobham Boxing Day 10.08pm

Week 29

Profit £20,740.00

The weekly discussion hasn;t been compltede yet due to the Festive interruptions. However it was another fantastic week's profits and you can check the detailed bets here

Cobham, 1147 pm Monday 15th Dec

Week 28 - Not Great

"... but at least we finished with a great 13/2 winner Bob"

As we had so few bets this week due to the appalling weather I'm adopting a slightly different format and discussing the weeks business in one long essay. With a sting in the tale! I hope you enjoy it!

Well it was bound to happen. We'd enjoyed stunning week after stunning week so we were due a bad one. But as losing weeks go this wasn't too bad. It always helps when the last bet of the day or the last bet of the week is a good winner doesn't it? You feel like you're making progress back.

And it was a heck of a cruel week. The weather was lousy and severely limited betting opportunities. Several meetings were abandoned and we missed some great potential winners especially when Cheltenham was abandoned on Saturday. I had two beauties lined up!

********** was our most costly and definitely the cruelest loser. We were mugged on Wednesday when he was absolutely cruising, but locked away on the rail and boxed in on all sides with nowhere to go. His jockey was virtually standing up in the stirrups looking around for the tiniest gap but he was in prison and there was no escape. He'd barely had a race and looked like he'd had won by a distance had he got out!

Connections were so upset they decided to stay over and take him to Great Leighs for another crack. They figured he'd hardly had a race so he wouldn't be too tired. And as he seemed a class above his opposition even below par he'd win. So the recovery mission plan was hatched and we backed him again. Once again he was a monster gamble from 100/30 down to 6/4 favourite! That takes some money to move a horse's odds like that. I think everyone in the country had seen how unlucky he was the night before and latched on to our gamble.

He broke poorly but rapidly made up the lost ground and turning for home was in a good position travelling strongly. I thought the gamble was landed. Suddenly he was treading water and lumbering around, he'd gone from racehorse to packhorse in a stride.

To be honest my immediate reaction was the previous race had taken more out of him that they'd thought. Add to that the long journey travelling over from Ireland on the ferry and the long drive down from Wales and you could see why he could easily be feeling knackered. I understood but felt a bit upset that connections hadn't spotted the sparkle may have gone out of his eye.

It was unjustified on my part because he came back sore and it turned out he'd pulled a muscle probably due to making up that lost ground too quickly. And maybe at the back of my mind a little voice says perhaps 2 races in 2 days made him more prone to injury. It was annoying because he would have won the first night when we had 7/1 about him. And the second night he would easily have been at least placed (he still finished 4th, just out of the frame). But both night he finished out of the frame. Two big 15 point each way bets down the drain and a massive 60 points in the hole. No chance this week being a winner now I thought.

If that wasn't bad enough we had a rare odds on bet which ran a shocker. *********** repeatedly jumped badly and in a jump race that ruins your chance. A good hurdler can take 2 lengths out of his field at each hurdle and over 2 miles you have 8 hurdles, that's 16 lengths! Not only did he give away ground at each hurdle but hitting them wastes valuable energy too.

On the bright side one client rang to say he doesn't bet odds on so he skipped that bet pretending he was the bookmaker! So he gained 30 points on the profit share system. Good luck to him I say (though I think it's a dangerous game!)

To be fair there's no rule that says you have to bet all my selections. I know many of my clients are extremely well informed themselves and have good contacts. So obviously if you have good information in a race that I may not be aware of you must make your own decision. Sometimes that might mean betting your own horse and not mine. Sometimes it might mean betting both. Sometimes you might strike lucky and land the forecast! This is a game of opinion and often mine may be no better than the next man. I like to think it's good enough to show me a profit over the year but I'm never too proud to listen to what someone else may know about another horse in the race. In this business it pays to be open minded.

And now I'd like to discuss our biggest loser and biggest winner in one breath. 40 Points win on ********* at 7/4 (punted down to an amazing 4/6!) and our final and only bet on Saturday 10 points each way on ********** at 13/2 (also a big gamble, punted down to 4/1)

By the way ********** should have won. But he didn't. He was the best horse in the race yet didn't get the prize he (and we) deserved. His jockey rode very confidently (too confidently for my liking). Sometimes I think that when connections tell a jockey "Lad, you're on a cert! He'll win" ... the jockey gets too confident and thinks he can win from any position and can end up playing too cool to be true, coming from the back of the field with a flying run and just being denied. It looks fantastic when you pull it off. But when my horse is fancied I like to see him in a good position RIGHT FROM THE START! As one of my handicappers always says to me

"Bob, you can give weight away,

... but you can't give a start"

Breaking slowly he was last and then held up. Half a mile from home he powerfully overtook his field all the way round the outside on a bend ( you and I both know that's the longest way to travel and means you have to race a good few lengths further) He struck the front a furlong from home and was then worried out of it by a jockey giving his horse a hard ride. Bah!

It was a huge swing because 40 points at 7/4 returns 110 points, yet we lost 40. A 150 point swing for the sake of a stronger ride! How the hell do we make a profit I sometimes wonder. It's like paying tax at 450% let alone 45%!

Now I know you liked **********! For two reasons. She was a BIG price and she always looked like winning! Her and the 2nd horse finished miles clear of the rest so you knew the win or 2nd was in the bag. It's great watching those sort of races isn't it?

Which was the better bet?

Now I have a question for you and I bet I know the answer you're going to give. The question is which bet was the better one? ********** or **********?

Bob are you crazy? I hear you say! One horse won, one lost, obviously the winner is the better bet!

Hey, not so fast ... it's not that simple.

I see my job as twofold. As a kind of coach (if you will let me be so bold) ... to put before you bets which I think represent value and look to be long term profitable. So that you may choose to participate if it suits you and hopefully make yourself some decent money along the way.

But also as a friend. To tell you the truth as I see it. No matter whether you will like it or not. Because friends can tell you the truth. If someone had BO for example you'd like to think one of their friends would tell them! So I'm sharing this even though I don't expect you'll like the conclusion!

Pretend both horses won to make the mental comparison easier

To make it easier to compare the bets may we "pretend" that ********** won? The question is the same. Is your answer? I suspect you still prefer the ********** bet. I'll be honest, I enjoy bets like ********** more. Because like you I prefer to risk a little to win a lot. But I know that ********** is the better bet. By that I mean the most profitable.

You may be curious as to why I'm even asking this when the "winning" ********** bet wins just 70 points for a risk of 40 and ********** wins 81.25 for half the risk!

How the heck can the first bet be more profitable than the other?!

The reason is we must look not at the profit. But the profitability. Ie the long term profit one bet will earn compared to the other.

You may already be aware that the SP (Starting Price) is a very good predictor of a horse's winning chance. It's what stock market investors call "efficient" So an even money chance wins close to 50% of the time. A 4/6 chance wins almost 60% of the time and a 6/4 chance just under 40%. 4/1 chances win just under 20% and so on.

Bookmakers have a percentage equivalent for every price. guess what it is for evens? 50% and ...

4/6 is 60%

6/4 is 40%

4/1 is 20%

If you'd like the formula to calculate the percentage equivalent for any price drop me an email. I'll send you a table with them all pre-calculated too.

Ok so using the SP as a guide we can estimate how many times we are "entitled" to win the race. Because if you could run the same race over and over again you'd find that horses like ********** would win around 60% of the time. And 4/1 horses like ********** will win around 20%

So let's pretend we run each race 10 times. And our selection wins the number of races indicated by his/her SP.

We'll bet £100 a time to make the maths easy. And for this example we bet WIN only

********** Horse A

Final SP = 4/1, therefore likely to win 20% of the time ie 2 races out of 10. We took odds of 13/2

So out of 10 bets

· We win twice, £650 a time. That's PLUS £1,300

· We lose 8 times, That's MINUS -£ 800

· ------

· Net Profit Equals £500

· ------

Now we bet ten times, £100 a time so our total investment is 10 x £100 or £1,000. We made £500 profit on this £1,000 so we made 50%

Therefore the expected return from ********** is 50%

Incidentally that's a fabulous return especially when it only takes 6 minutes!

********** Horse B

Final SP = 4/6, therefore likely to win 60% of the time ie 6 races out of 10. We took odds of 7/4

So out of 10 bets

· We win 6 times, £175 a time. That's PLUS £1,050

· We lose 4 times, That's MINUS -£ 400

· ------

· Net Profit Equals £650

· ------

Now we bet ten times, £100 a time so our total investment is 10 x £100 or £1,000. We made £650 profit on this £1,000 so we made 65%

Therefore the expected return from ********** is 65%!

That's an amazing return!

Which is the better bet?

Based on the above assumptions the long term profit from bets like **********s is 65% whereas bets like ********** would return 50%. That makes ********** a 30% better bet!

I knew you wouldn't like the answer! Everyone loves betting big priced horses! But there can be gold on those short ones too!

Caveat

It's only fair to say that we did disregard the fact that ********** was an each way bet. And as you know I believe betting each way adds something to the value of your bet. But there's no denying that on the above figures and betting win only, you'd win more betting **********s then you would betting *************s!

Moral of the Story

There's two important lessons in that bit of fun.

Do not turn your nose up at short priced horses. They can add enormously to your long term profits

If you bet horses that shorten in the market and end up a lot shorter than the price you bet them at. Then cheer! Because whether the horse wins or loses you're almost certain to make a long term profit.

As I finish this late on Monday night we'd had another fabulous turnaround and we've already won back all last week's losses with a nice bit on top! ************ pulled us a massive 72 points profit and got the week off to a scorching start. Don't you just love the highs and lows of this game! It really does keep you alive eh?

All the best

Bob Rothman

PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now *******

Cobham, 0.24 am Monday 8th Dec

Week 27 - £20,360.00 Profit!

16/1 Double Landed!

Another unbelievable week! £20,360 profit is outrageous!

We've had another stunning week and yet I'm going to be a bit of a party pooper here. For a very good reason. Your protection.

Ok we've had a great week let's not deny it. In fact the last four weeks have been stunning. Now as you know I do expect to win over a year that's true (although this is gambling so nothing's certain!) But it's not realistic to expect to win every week. Certainly not on this level. I don't want you thinking this is the norm and then start betting too big so that a few losers knock you out. As sure as night follows day there will be some losing spells too. Our long term success in this business depends as much on our ability to stay the course ... to complete the marathon so as to speak. It isn't a 100 yard sprint. It's a 200 mile slog!

Ok that's the boring bit out of the way but if I may I'd like to just put our performance into context. Today base rate is 2%. And apart from short term "suck-you-in" short-term offers from banks and building societies the long term return on savings can be as low as 1%!

You can make a fortune at 1%!

1% on your money in a bank for a year is peanuts. But the beauty of any form of trading (and I regard betting on horses as trading just the same as betting on shares or currencies) is that you can take a small edge and because you trade over and over again that small edge gets multiplied. What do I mean?

Well imagine you have a you place £20,000 worth of bets in a week and you make a 1% profit. That's £200. Not a lot. But you might never have bet more than £1,000 and do that 50 times a year and you make 50 x 1% or 50% or £10,000! Now that's a serious return.

Now if you placed an ad in the paper offering an investment with a 50% return you'd have an army of people wanting to bite your hand off. I don't know any bank that offers that sort of return. I'm not even sure if Warren Buffet does? and to be fair the larger the sums of money you're investing the harder it is to achieve a good return. the weight of your money starts acting against you. Warren Buffet invests millions if not billions. So a 10% return in a year would be very good for him.

Where am I leading in all this?

What % return did we make last week?

To be a Professional Punter you do have to start thinking in terms of percentages. We tend to avoid races where the bookmakers profit is high ... a big percentage. For example in a 20 runner handicap they may bet to 20% profit whereas in a 8 runner maiden it could be 10%. It's easier to win when you cherry pick better races to bet in from a punter's point of view.

But I have a question for you. What percentage profit do you think we made last week?

To save you the math's I've done it for you so let's run through it quickly. We invested 208 points and the return was 411.6. That's a 203.6 point profit which is ... wait for it ... a staggering

98% profit on turnover!

This is a staggering figure and it was a wonderful week. But as your friend I have to advise you it is unsustainable. We will NOT average 98% over a year. No way in Hell!

In my second year's punting I had a golden spell and won £440,000 on a turnover of around £2m. I remember some of the comments in newspapers where the journalists were positively skeptical ... they'd say begrudgingly say something like ... if Mr Rothman can make 25% on turnover he must be one of the most successful punters of all time. And they'd make a big stress on the if!

Well between you and me it was true. 25% is enormous and so big that a lot of people don't believe it's possible. (maybe they don't work hard enough studying eh?!)And that was when it was worth an awful lot of money. Back in 1986! Sadly I have not been able to sustain that level of winnings because it becomes impossible to get on in any size! Many clients are reporting back that they too are getting restricted by the bookies. In one case a gentleman wrote to say the bookies had happily taken his money for years when he lost but now he was winning they were running scared and limiting his bets to schoolboy size!

So let's enjoy these golden weeks and hope we get plenty more of them but please do not base your future betting strategy or size of bet on these great weeks. Because if you do you will bet too big and if you bet too big you'll go skint!

If we only average 1% a week we'll do very nicely thank you. So if we have a week with a small profit ... and that profit is more than 1% ... I'd like you to still think "Yippee!" Because it's a heck of a lot better than most people are doing in property or business at the moment that's for sure!

I was very lucky when I started betting in that I made the acquaintance of another Professional Punter with some 20/30 years experience and he guided me well. I always remember one phrase that Angus said to me.

"Bob, the winning days take care of themselves. It's the losing days you have to protect yourself from"

He had another phrase which I'll never forget and (sadly) has been burned deep into my heart on many occasions. it's a painful experience I hope you'll avoid. If you do it'll be a miracle because most Professionals will experience this at least once if not many, many times before it finally sinks in.

"Be very careful after your biggest winning day. So often the biggest losing day follows!"

Now why the heck is that? How dare the betting gods make such a stupid rule up? Surely when you win big you bet bigger and win even more? Ohhhhhhhhhhhh no.

What tends to happen after big wins is we get cocky. We think we know it all and that we walk on water. So we start lumping on Big time. The trouble is that you and I both know that we only win maybe 30% of the time. That leaves 70% for losing bets! You can easily go a week, or two or more without backing a winner. And if you've lumped on say 20% of your bank ... you can only go 5 losing bets before you're wiped out. That's why I recommend a bank of at least 1,000 points, It won't protect you from a really bad losing run. But it'll sure help get through most of them!

Suppose you unearthed a marvelous system that won 90% of the time. 9 winners out of 10! (You really would be walking on water!) You'd bet winner after winner after winner! But ... if you got cocky and decided the system was so great that you bet everything ... sure as eggs are eggs, sooner or later, that 1 loser in 10 will come along and wipe you out!

Ok that's enough about being sensible. I'm only hammering the point home because I want you to be able to bet winners for a very long time and so I'm imploring you to be sensible and cautious when I know it probably goes against part of your nature. It's pretty obvious you must have an element of risk taking in your personality otherwise you wouldn't have the guts to even place a bet! Not just because it's great if you can make money from something as crazy as betting horses! But also because it's FUN winning too! I don't know about you but when I've had a good week I walk a bit taller ... with a spring in my step and an even bigger smile on my face! I become a nicer person to know!

And it doesn't matter if you win £100 or £1,000. If you win you feel good. so let's focus on staying in the game so we have a chance to keep winning for a long time. The last time we had two bad weeks I lost 2 clients who'd been with me since the beginning. They should have had enough in reserve to see them through. Sadly they didn't and they had to leave the club though I hope they may rejoin later. But what's even sadder is that since those two bad weeks ( 5 and 6 weeks ago) when we lost 200 points ( £20,000 at £100 per point) ... we've won 771 points!! (£77,122,50 at £100 per point stakes)

That's more than THREE times the losses. They would have got it all back and be sitting pretty with even more profit in the bank. Yet those two guys have missed out just because they bet too big during the bad weeks. Please, please bet carefully!

A quick chat about the week now, though it was so good we hardly need to say anything! The good days look after themselves!

Monday:

******** A 2 mile race with our horse looking like he was going to win or be second for sure, only for it end in a bunch finish with 4 horses separated by less than a length ... and we finished 4th. It was an unbelievable 24 point kick in the goolies! To be frank if you have a result like that at any time in a week you'd have to expect to end up losing that week. 24 points is an awful lot to make up.

Tuesday:

An awful days racing. Poor quality animals who are not a good betting medium. ********* missed the break and never faced the kickback which about summed it up for the day.

Wednesday:

I was beginning to wish I'd taken the week off and gone abroad! Maybe I was getting stale and missing something? I usually work 5 weeks and then take a few days break because I find I win more doing that. 5 weeks is a long time to keep up the intense focus needed for racing and if you're a bit stale you seem to miss the "golden" calls. A lot of research on peak performance shows it drops off after a few weeks (which is maybe why some horses only replicate peak form if they race around 14 days later)

******* was a another horse certain to win or be second (he and the winner were 20 lengths clear coming to the second last) so I was feeling quite comfortable with our each way bet knowing we couldn't lose ... when he tipped up and fell!! Ouch. That's twice in 3 days and even though it was only a 5 point each way bet it was another 10 points down the can and an almost impossible position to recover from. When you're losing it would be a heck of a lot cheaper to go away and not bet! 34 points on two unlucky each way losers was going to make this a bad week I was sure.

Thursday:

More rubbish racing and I could only find two bets from all the runners. Most of these horses you and I could run faster than!

********* was a welcome winner and confirmed the gallop lines with ***** who we've enjoyed two good wins on and who now races off 65.My spies had spotted ************ galloping well with horses of his caliber and as she was only rated 58 we knew she had a great chance. Heavily gambled she travelled like a dream just behind the leaders and powered clear for an easy win. About time!

Friday:

What a great day! ********* stormed home in the first. And then ********** landed an enormous gamble very easily indeed. 9/2 winners with a good size stake soon repair the bank and we stormed up to an amazing 31 point profit by the end of the day. What a comeback!

Saturday

A magnificent day and several clients enjoyed even bigger wins than advised by using their initiative.

Our first bet *********** didn't run till late in the evening but was a facile winner and another huge gamble. He'd been working brilliantly.

Then we had one of my favourite bets of all time the infamous each way double. The power of this bet is that if the horse both place you still make a small profit. But when they both win as they did on Saturday the return is simply mouthwatering!

I gave out the bet as a 5 point each way double on ******* at 9/2 and ********* at 2/1 and intended giving you a 8-10 point each way bet on ******* as well. I was watching the markets and it looked like he'd drift out to 5/1 so I was holding back to get you the best odds on the single. I wanted to give you the double earlier as they take a bit longer to get on. Then one of my men as Sandown rang on the other line and started running through the rest of the ******* runners plus what he'd heard about other horses at the track.

I must be getting stale because frankly I got sidetracked and suddenly the race was almost off. ******* had drifted out to almost 11/2 on the exchanges so I was surprised he hadn't shown 5/1 yet. And then they were called into line and I realised it was too late to give you the second bet.

You know the result, ***** won and you should have been enjoying a big win already. I was now praying ********* would do the decent thing for you and win so you'd have a good return as it's really annoying if you have a double and one wins and the other doesn't. Luckily perhaps because I had missed the time off for the *********** race several clients called to say they'd "guessed" I might have missed something else off too and backed Fabula on its own as well as in the double!! A double payday! Obviously I didn't text out the single bet on ********* so I cannot put it on the report but well done to you if you backed him singly as well. It was still a great win!

*********** absolutely destroyed his field ad it was almost embarrassing how easy he won. But I'm never embarrassed to collect the winnings! And then in the evening ************ was another huge gamble and looked like he was on jet fuel, an easy winner.

A marvelous day and several clients texted or emailed to say they'd had a fantastic day! Incidentally I love to hear about all your good wins so feel free to email me and let me know about them at ***********************

I won't always be able to reply promptly so if you need a quick reply it's best to write to the girls at ***************** as I only log in every day or so and it depends if I've finished my studying as racing always has to come first as you'll understand.

Sunday - No bets

A great week! Hope you celebrated, bought something for yourself or a friend or made a difference to someone's life. I love week's like that! Wonder why the bookies don't??????!

All the best

Bob Rothman

PS This week's password for the secure areas on our website www.horseracingpro.co.uk is now *********

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