August Archive 2008
30th August 2008
Yesterday we were celebrating another losing lay which was a short price and today, I turn my laying attentions to the 5.15 at Bath. Richard Hannon may be the man to follow in 2yo races but Ginobili looked a horse that wasn't keen on going by last time out and holded once headed. Taking on some very classy prospects today he looks a cracking Lay at 4.8 tonight.
Earlier in the day the 4.15 at Sandown catches my eye. Muftarres for me is a very strong Bet at 5.8 in the Win market and 2.14 in the Place market. The Green Desert colt looked unsuited by soft ground at Newbury last time and returning to a better surface tonight he has to be respected. The Stoute team do well at this track, especially in handicaps and he is well handicapped to stride home strongly up the Esher hill.
Good luck on your punting today;
29th August 2008
Another losing Lay brings further profits to the Adam Harris laying system. By finding horses you dislike and laying them you can become very rich, Seventh Cavalry looks destined never to win at present and as long as he is around 2/1 I will continue to lay him.
Today the brave cap comes out and I look at the 3.55 at Sandown. Everyone is harping on about this Meehan horse who was 2nd on debut at Ascot, but if he was so good why was he 10/1 that day and why is Alan Munro used ahead of William Buick, Eddie Ahern and Frankie Dettori who all seem to have stronger links with the yard. So the real question should be, why is Summers Target trading at 2.52 on Betfair? Well I suppose the correct answer would be he has the best form and yes that is true, but he takes on a number of Newcomers from big yards and whilst he ran well on debut, the well backed 2nd and 3rd favoruites that day ran well below form. This could mean he would have only been 4th had those been on song. So with plenty of nicely bred sorts to take him on with I'm keen to Lay the Meehan hot pot today.
Betting has been slow off the ground this week but when I looked at the 6.05 at Salisbury tonight I couldn't not back On Our Way. The Henry Cecil trained 2yo impresisvely won 2nd time out and won going away from its rivals. Up to a mile here he is trading at 3.3 and for me he looks very good value with the extra furlong looking to really suit him. By the time Summers Target has been turned over, the horse who beat him last time Derbaas could have drifted further meaning the odds about On Our Way will shorten. The boys in Newmarket suggest this horse is a bit special and he is our Bet today in a race that looks tailor made for him.
Good luck on your punting today;
28th August 2008
A poor days racing but whilst bets are hard to find, I do think I have a great Lay in the 5.00 at Great Leighs.
Seventh Cavalry has never been one to trust and at 3.8 I'm keen to oppose him. He works adequately at home but he has tried plenty of trips. Badly outpaced over a mile last time he made minimal late progress but not enough to suggest he can win over a mile. At around 11/4 I'm keen to lay him today.
There is no bet today.
Good luck on your punting today;
25th August 2008
Golden Bishop came good for us yesterday and we have a bet and a lay today/
I want to continue our method of laying Godolphin horses on their comeback runs and Law Lord looks a Lay at 3.1 today. Running in the 4.20 at Warwick the Godolphin horse will be up against it to win on his return having shown his best form on a fast surface and he also looks as if he would prefer an extra furlong.
Our Bet of the day comes 45 minutes later in the 5.05 at Kempton. Earlier in the year at York Tastahil chased home the smart Folk Opera and even had Zetland Gold Cup winner Capable Guest behind him. Today he is only 6lb higher and on his form with Bankable and Folk Opera he looks very well treated off only 89. The step up of another furlong looks ideal for him and at 4.1 in the win market he appears a solid bet to me.
Good luck on your punting today;
24th August 2008
Our lay was agian beaten yesterday, but our bet was a non runner.
Today we have no lay but our advised Bet today is Golden Bishop in the 4.40 at Yarmouth. Michael Bell's 3yo gelding has been disappointing in handicaps but the drop to 1m 2f will really suit today and the drop in class should see him collect after a couple of pleasing gallops lately.
Good luck on your punting today;
23rd August 2008
It wasn't our day yesterday when our bet came 3rd having run green and our lay actually was impressive winner. However not much damage done.
Today's Lay looks worthy of opposition and whilst impressive last time I'm not convinced this stiff finish will really suit the bold front running Peace Offering. For me he is short enough at 3.0 and I could see a rejuvinated Hoh Mike claiming his scalp today.
Today's Bet looks solid to me and over 1m 3f on fastish ground I'm not sure why Tranquil Tiger is as big as 3.2 given he has by far the best form and loves these conditions, its hard to see him not winning. He stays well and this course suits prominently ridden horses. He for me looks solid today.
Good luck on your punting today;
22nd August 2008
Our lay of the day yesterday was a massive drifter going from 9/2 - 11/1 but despite a huge drift ran well in 2nd, nearly causing a few hair raising moments. Our bet on Craigstown could only manage 5th.
Today I'm keen to Lay one in the 5.15 at Newmarket. Despite winning his last three races Askar Tau is much higher in the weights now and he only beat Irish Quest 1.75l last time. Irish Quest was a good 4l behind Armure in a gallop the other morning and that gives the impression she should beat the paper fav. At 4.4 I think Askar Tau is also a bit short and now much higher in the weights and up in class, the winning run can come to an end.
On the betting front my Bet of the day comes in the 3.40 at Newmarket and we are getting cracking value on Four Winds at 6.6. Jamie Spencer is flying from Newbury to ride the Queens horse and its work at home on the gallops has reportedly been impressive. This looks a good place to debut and given the cost of a plane to fly over, Four Winds must be worth it. I'll take at chance at the odds.
Good luck on your punting today;
21st August 2008
A pleasing return yesterday as Gentle Guru backed from 5/4 into 4/5 collected for us in style. Today we're back with one bet and one lay.
Godolphin horses just don't win after a break so why is Igor Protti priced at 6.1 today. 5/1 about a horse who wouldn't have run on this slow an all weather surface before and having his first run from a break has to be a Lay. The Godolphin team's horses are all needing their initial runs and it can prove profitable once more to oppose.
On the betting front I want to Bet a Godolphin horse this evening at Chester. Craigstown looked very useful on soft ground last time when winning and he is officially 3lb well in today. His pilot takes a further 5lb off, so in theory he is only up 1lb for an easy success. Trading at 2.48 for the 7.40 at Chester, I easily make him the bet of the day to continue his upward curve.
Good luck on your punting today;
20th August 2008
After 3 day's of no bets through poor racing we have just the one bet tonight at Folkestone. We have no lays and whilst we curse the abandonement of York we can be thankful Folkestone is on.
A couple of weeks ago at Sandown Gentle Guru stayed on strongly having been given too much to do in a slowly run 5f, however the slower surface today and guaranteed pace from Malapropism and Azygous means that Richard Phillips' charge has a cracking oportunity. Trading at 2.26 Gentle Guru looks a solid bet on ground she handles and she has to be fancied to score. She is our Bet of the day.
Good luck on your punting today;
16th August 2008
Well two paper favourites that finsihed unplaced. That was the result of our fine lays yesterday. Today we look at the Tote Scoop 6 and also bring you a bet and a lay.
Scoop 6
The pot is huge today, in fact it's topped the million barrier. I have selected 1 horse in each race today, as I bid to land it myself, here are my selections:
Leg 1: Winter Bloom
Leg 2: Sixties Icon
Leg 3: Lunces Lad
Leg 4: Tawaash
Leg 5: King's Caprice
Leg 6: Hinton Admiral
Today's Lay of the day gets me excited as we search for more success in the laying department and I'm keen to oppose Buddy Holly in the 5.00 at Newbury. Trading at 4.8 the Pat Eddery 3yo has been turned over twice since his last win and the drying ground really won't suit him. There has been some exciting talk lately about Black Jacari of Alan King's and he can prove good competition to the favourite.
Today's Bet is another strong one for me and I think there is ground to have confidence in Hinton Admiral each way this afternoon in the 4.00 at Ripon. Richard Fahey's runner was a classy 3yo for previous conenctions but drawn out of it at Goodwood he caught my eye late on. He is clearly now well handicapped and the yards promising 7lb claimer should be able to get a lead off a couple of horses drawn around him. This ground is ideal and at 38 in the win market and 8.8 in the place market I think he represents great each way value with his yard in great form and handicap specialists when the ground comes up soft.
Good luck on your punting today;
15th August 2008
It's nice to have soem decent racing back today and therefore we can advise a win bet and a lay bet.
Today I'm actually going to be greedy and advise 2 lays and 1 bet. I think sometimes when you notice a horse worth taking on, that you may notice 2 or 3, so given I've spotted two today. We'll give it a go.
Our first Lay is in the 4.45 at Nottingham and despite impressing last time out I don't really think that China Pink wants as far as this and I don't see the reason for blinkers to be added. The trip and ground will really test her stamina and being by a sprinter in Oasis Dream that has to be a worry. At 3.35 I'm keen to take her on.
Our 2nd Lay comes in the 7.35 at Newmarket and with the Godolphin horses needing the run off of a break, I don't know why anyone would want to back With Interest at odds of 4.6. Very disappointing in its work of late (companion Act Of Diplomacy, well beat on debut when odds on) and all its best form has come on quicker ground. These combine to make me think he is worth opposing today.
Our Bet of the day is one I'm quietly confident about and it runs in the 2.35 at Nottingham. Badweia is surrently trading at 4.5 as I write and I think that is massive value. The John Dunlop trained filly won impressively at Newbury in slow ground conditions and having not got 7f at Newmarket last time (race worked out well) I believe there could be alot more to come back over 6f and on a prefered surface. The majority of her rivals look exposed and she offers good value around 7/2.
Good luck on your punting today;
14th August 2008
It was disappointing not to collect yesterday, especially when both our horses were very well backed. Once again its hard to come across a lay for today but we do have a Bet at Great Leigh's this evening.
That man Sir Mark Prescott has his team on fire of late and General Ting looks sure to relish the return to going left handed tonight. A winner at Nottingham he didnt look to enjoy the fast ground at Salisbury and ultimately hung left handed late on. The all weather here rides quite slow and that should suit. Sanders is sure to have him in the van today and he rates a solid bet to me at 2.82.
13th August 2008
Not a great day yesterday with our bet failing to win and our lay getting up close home to win at 9/4.
Today's racing is tricky and I have No Lay today. We replaced that with two bets today.
Our First Bet comes in the 2.00 at Salisbury where Roger Charlton runs the interesting debutante Zero Money. Charlton has had a habit of intruducing good types to this track in the past and reports from Beckhampton suggest this horse has been pleasing connections. Found a pretty ordinary maiden to debut in, he is worth a bet. At 3.1 he looks a solid option.
Our Second Bet runs in the 5.35 at Sandown and whilst we expect the Hannon team to get off the mark, we do not this it will be a win for Victoria Sponge. Our spies who have seen the work on East Everleigh inform us that the newcomer Always There is the one showing more on the gallops and that its work with listed class companions at home will see it hard to beat on debut. At odds of 5.8 as I write it's worth chancing.
Good luck on your punting today;
12th August 2008
A 1.7 losing Lay and a 3.95 winning Bet was the best way to start the week as French Art (4/9) was turned over and Rocket Rob (3/1) both done the business for us.
Next week is York and instead of a Lay and a Bet each day I'm going to advise a patent to try and secure maximum winnings. On Saturday I'm also going to give my advised Scoop 6 perm.
However back to business today and I've spotted a nice lay in the 8.25 at Nottingham today. Equuleus Pictor has been rising up the weights lately and doesn't look the easiest of rides. He is now a good few lbs higher than his last win and at 4.7 I'm keen to Lay him this evening. Jack Dean didn't look strong enough to get him home last time and I fear the same result for connections here.
Our bet of the day comes in the 2.30 at Lingfield and I'm keen to get on board the Prescott express. Buddhist Monk was a solid 2nd last time out and in chasing home Wells Lyrical he had subsequent winner Deer Daylami just in behind him. This looks a very soft race and at 3.65 he looks a solid bet to me today.
Good luck on your punting today;
11th August 2008
Our lay yesterday was turned over only managing 3rd, but our bet failed to get his head in front.
Today I'm keen to oppose a shortish priced favrouite. In the 7.50 at Windsor tonight I think there is strong grounds to oppose French Art. The David Elsworth trained 3yo has been a bridesmaid on quite a few occasions and he looked quite quirky last time out. At odds of 1.70 he looks a solid Lay today as he faces some interesting horses which have run one eye catching run and a couple of interesting debutants. This horse has already been turned over in 4 similar races this season and can be opposed once more.
Our bet today is a horse I think could end up being much shorter than its odds of 3.95 by the off. Simon Callaghan has his horses in good order and Rocket Rob could be well treated off 62 today. He has been showing good form on the Newmarket gallops with 70 - 80 rated horses and he shaped as if the experience and a longer trip would suit him when winning at Yarmouth last time. He gets a good bit of weight from the Prescott horse today and I think he can get up to beat him.
Good luck on your punting today;
10th August 2008
Our lay of the day Last Three Minutes could only manage 3rd, enabling us another profitable lay day, however our bet Time Control looked a non stayer on testing ground.
Today's racing is not the most exciting but Us Ranger stands out as a decent Bet today in the 3.15 at Deauville. The Aidan O'Brien trained colt looked slightly short of pace in the July Cup when keeping on in 2nd and whilst he was headed close home, to me he appears the sort of horse that will benefit from this easier surface and a slightly longer trip. At 5.7 he looks a good value bet.
Our Lay today comes in the 2.20 at Leicester. Whilst he showed good form on debut and again at Sandown, I just don't see much progression from Combat Zone and he is poor value to me at 3.4. He didn't find alot for pressure last time out and with a couple of nice types in his race today I would be keen to take him on.
Good luck on your punting today;
9th August 2008
Theres a fine line between an okay day and a great day. When masamah bounded home a 5/2 winner, its fair to say you think that the sun is shining on you, but when just two hours later your lay Wingwalker comes from nowhere to win the maiden you realise the curse was out to get you.
Today being a Saturday the racing is very competitive and value isn't always there to be seen. When looking for a bet today, I look for a horse maybe the bookmakers missed, one the script wasn't so obvious with. Today the 4.55 stands out to me. Having got her three runs Time Control looked fairly handicapped off a mark of 82, but you raise the question, why is Mr Cumani still runnning in a maiden. The layers asked the same about Kossack last week when he won and today I'm sure there will be opposers of the filly. Time Control with her mark of 82 would struggle to get in any of the big staying handicaps at York and would need to be around a mark of 90 to get in, so believe me when I say she is one that is bound to be trying to impress when winning rather than grounding it out. I think at 4.3 she offers great value and she is our advised Bet today.
The lay's have been cruel the past couple of day's we are about even overall, maybe 1pt down. Today's lay comes in the 3.35 at Redcar. Ed Dunlop's horses are in good form but it was plain to see that when Last Three Minutes won at Yarmouth he had disappointly little in behind. Rated 87 the horse will need to find plenty of improvement to win off that mark and the fact is, the 2nd horse Seventh Calvary on that day is no betetr than a 70 horse, so 17lb for 6lb appears harsh to me. Trading at 4.2 he is the ideal price to lay and with rain everywhere there has to be a ground concern given he won on rattling fast ground last time. For me there is enough there to be taking him on with.
Good luck on your punting today;
8th August 2008
The cruel blow when you lay wins, is when it only just wins and thats what happened with the 7/4 priced Kyle yesterday. Our advised bet Tanto Faz ran well in 3rd but looked a non stayer over the trip weakening in the final 100 yards.
Today we have a good looking lay and this horse is currently a short priced favoruite in a big field. The 5.50 at Newmarket being an all unraced juveniles maiden may not be the best option for lays in most people's opinions but Wingwalker priced at 2.88 has to be the Lay of the day. Henry Cecil does appear to have some decent juveniles this term but the majority are needing their first runs and whats more the gallop spies inform me that this horse has only been working with King's Troop at home. The later took a couple of chances to get off the mark and I would feel safe taking on this Cecil newcomer.
Today's Bet however is one that in my opinion offers massive value. The 3.40 today at Lingfield looks a decent conditions race but Ed Dunlop's juveniles have looked in really good form of late. Masamah was very impressive on his debut at York and won as he pleased despite hanging across the track. He wore blinkers on that occasion so its interesting to see them removed today but I suppose going left handed will suit him. He looked the type to progress on that evidence and with the yards horses coming into form he looks a solid bet at 3.3.
Good luck on your punting today;
7th August 2008
Yesterday proved why you need to follow the lays and also the bets we advise once again. Our Lay Azwa was well beaten despite going off favourite and our Bet was narrowly denied having been backed from 4/1 into 3/1 favourite.
Today we continue our search for profitable lays and we need to take a stance againts ungenuine horses. At Bath this evening the 6f claimer is hardly the crea, of the crop but in lay terms we have the standout lay of the day. Kyle is currently trading at 2.65 and he must be opposed. Bath is not an easy course to come from off the pace and he also looked very quirky when 6th last time out. This 5.7f race is not totally ideal with some interesting in form sorts in there and he should be worth opposing at too short a price.
Our bet of the day comes this evening as well and we make our way to the Esher track Sandown. The 7.55 is a competitive handicap but with the Stoute horses very hit and miss at present we can turn our attentions to Tanto Faz at odds of 4.8. William Haggas has been rattling in the winners of late and the selection looked in great order when stretching away from his companion in a gallop last weekend. He is well handicapped off his mark and the uphill finish will really suit. With the Stoute horses slightly under par I think we are getting a great value bet at just under 4/1.
Good luck on your punting today;
6th August 2008
Yesterday proved that Royal Ascot juvenile form is suspect. It's what I have long thought and the basis that Amosite was beaten in such a poor race yesterday gives the impression the Queen Mary form is weak. You have to remember the 4th Lucky Leigh has already been beaten twice since at short odds and if bookmakers continue to price in this manner, then we can make some good money.
Looking at today's racing the lay is tough today. It's hard to find a horse that is opposable in the win or place market within the right price structure. Our safest Lay however comes at Kempton in the 7.50. The Ed Dunlop yard are clearly not in great form at present but more worryingly for me is that Azwa has looked reluctant to go through with her effort the last twice. Travelling well last time out, she failed to quicken late on. This is a tight nursery and i was always told to follow heavier weighted horses in 2yo handicap's until September. Azwa with 8st 4lb wouldn't come into this category and at 3.95 we will oppose her today.
We have had 2 winning bets from 5 thus far but today I go back to what I feel is a concrete selection. I'm not one for short odds at the best of times so I will stay at Kempton this evening and advise you a selection in the 8.50. John Gosden is one of the only Newmarket trainers in fine form at present and Rochefort looks a good Bet at odds of 5.0 today. A non stayer over ten furlongs he is now lower in the handicap and reverts to a mile today. A good piece of work with Battle Paint last week was franked at the weekend and he can reward us this evening at a nice price.
Good luck on your punting today;
5th August 2008
Yesterday we nearly done it. We nearly pulled off a double whammy. Our advised Lay Cerito was unplaced having been 7/4 at the time of writing this, to 4/1 at the off. Our bet Aldermoor came there cantering and went long odds on in running but missed out getting swamped by the winner late on.
Today's racing is not great but we can look for value on a poor day's racing. I'm more confident advising lays on a bad days racing and the prospect of Amosite staying 5f on a stiff track like Chepstow in slow ground is highly unlikely. Her run at Royal Ascot does command respect but she disappointed last time in an easy maiden. At 4.1 she looks underpriced and rates a good Lay. We took on one Ascot flop that was too short yesterday and we aim to do so again here.
Betting wise today you need to stay focussed and bring in a logical approach on the ground. Chepstow may well be testing after all the rain but it will be far worse at Catterick where the north has taken a hammering of stormy weather overninght. The 4.30 is a testing claimer and stamina will be brought in action here. The favourite Lucayan Dancer won well last time beating Torrens but on a slower surface and over a more demanding trip it's the Ollie Pears trained horse I rather be with. Torrens will appreciate this step up in trip and given how well he was gaining late on in that last race he can turn the tables. At 4.2 he rates a good selection.
Good luck on your punting today;
4th August 2008
Someone get the water I hear you cry, Adam Harris is on fire. Yet again we done it, our lay Brave Prospector couldn't even manage a place whilst our Bet Marine Boy sailed home at 9/4 by seven lengths.
I remember Bob Dylan and his Boomtown Rats stating once they "don't like Monday's" and he seems to be accurate as the level of racing is poor. However I'm going for a "double whammy" today, which is when I select two horses from one race and go for the win and the lay.
The 2.15 at Ripon looks a competitive 2yo contest and many people logging into Betfair and seeng 2.7 about Cerito will think they have a good price, however I'm one of the layers at 2.7 and Mick Channon's colt looks a good Lay to me. An easy winner of a weak race at Bath on his debut he was beaten at halfway in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Whilst that form is of course stronger than what else is on offer, you need to at the fact he disappointed over this trip at Newbury next time out. I do not think he stays 6f and I'm keen to take him on.
In his place I want to Bet the Stuart William's trained Aldermoor at 3.65. The once raced winning son of Tale Of The Cat, looked impressive when beating the highly regarded Prescott filly Starry Sky on debut and stretched away in the manner of a good horse. He can upset the odds here after a pleasing workout last week.
Good luck on your punting today;
3rd August 2008
We were on fire yesterday as our Lay Gheed was unplaced at 3.5 and our Bet Diddums was heavily punted from 7/4 into 11/10 collecting in style.
Today's Lay comes up at Chester today and I'm keen to oppose Brave Prospector. Peter Chapple-Hyam's 3yo runs in the 3.25 at Chester and is currently priced at 6.0. Well beaten last time out the horse has previously had breathing problems which is why he wears a tongue tie. On soft ground he must be opposed.
Our bet of the day comes in the 2.10 at Newbury where Tom Dascombe saddles the 2yo debutant Marine Boy. Currently priced at 3.85 I have been told not to miss this one by the eyes on the Lambourn gallops. Reportedly smarter than Firth Of Fifth and Classic Blade, this One Cool Cat colt looks one to be with making his debut in an ordinary race.
2nd August 2008
Not a great start for the collumn yesterday but we try again today and aim to grab a couple of winning bets.
Laying on a Saturday can sometimes be very tough but you need to look for horses that are just too short. Godolphin's record with their 3yo's first time out is not strong at present and the yard haven't had a 3yo debutant winner this season. Gheed runs in the 4.15 at Thirsk today and is trading at 3.45. He for me may be in a slightly easier race than most of the yards runners this season but baring in mind the yard haven't had a 3yo win first time out this season I'm keen to Lay him.
Our bet today comes at Doncaster in the 2.50. I like looking for horses that run well on debut in a decent race and then drop in grade. Diddums, of Willie Haggas' was 2nd on the all weather on debut chasing home the highly regarded Blown It. The 3rd horse Defector already had pleasing form coming into the race, so the level that Diddums achieved was pleasing. Dropping into a weak maiden he looks a solid BET in a weak maiden. Priced at 2.6 today, he is our second selection.
Good luck on your punting today;
1st August 2008
Well today is the start of our new daily blog and we will give you two solid horses today, one bet and one lay.
Goodwood is normally a track horses do well coming off the gallop but for some reason that hasn't happened too much this week. There wasn't much overnight rain last night and that brings a Lay to my attention this afternoon in the 2.15
Jeremy Noseda has already experienced disappointment here this week with the heavily backed Milne Graden and former St Leger winner Sixties Icon can add to the disappointment. "Looking back to his best" is what the papers tell you on their gallops sections today, but he needs to address a poor run at Ascot when the yards horses weren't right. Well Goodwood just doesn't look the track to suit him for me and I'm not convinced he will get the strong pace he needs, so at 4.00 in the Pink collumn I think he is worth taking on. Better on a slower surface he may find the track too fast today and I think he is opposable.
Looking towards our Bet of the day, it has to come tonight at Newmarket. The 7.00 conditions race takes the eye and whilst Jeremy Noseda & Sir Michael Stoute are represented, its the Mick Channon trained Arabian Flame I want to be with. Placed 3rd on his debut at Newbury he was very green and looked the type that would improve for the experience as well as a stiffer trip. Getting 7lb off the Noseda horse here, he is up in trip and looks very interesting. The yard produced Rileyskeepingfaith to win a maiden here recently and with Arabian Flame showing a strong level of debut form, he just looks the type to have enough scope to beat the Noseda horse who has already been beaten in a similar race by an unexposed type. That form was let down by the winner on his next start and I think Arabian Flame at odds of 3.5 can upset the jolly.
